Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential in the non-woven fabric sector and the performance of sportswear brands like Lululemon in China [2][3]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 1.4% from August 29 to September 5, 2025, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.8 percentage points [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in the non-woven fabric industry, with significant growth in revenue and profit for key players like Nobon and Jieya, indicating a positive trend in the sector [12][15]. - Lululemon's second-quarter performance in China showed a 25% increase in revenue, reinforcing the strong alpha in the sports market [15][16]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The non-woven fabric production peaked in 2020 but has seen a recovery post-pandemic, with a narrowing supply-demand gap. By the first half of 2025, revenue and profit for the non-woven fabric industry are expected to grow by 3.1% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [12][13]. - Nobon reported a 33% increase in revenue and a 48% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, exceeding market expectations [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Nobon for their growth potential in the non-woven fabric sector, particularly in personal care and new tobacco products [12][13]. Apparel Sector - Lululemon's global revenue grew by 7% to $2.5 billion in the second quarter of 2025, with international business revenue increasing by 22% and a notable 25% growth in mainland China [15][16]. - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end and cost-effective brands in the sportswear sector, with companies like Anta and Li Ning showing resilience despite market challenges [16][17]. - The report recommends investment in sportswear brands such as Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees, as well as discount retailers like Hailan Home [16][17]. Market Trends - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 837.1 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [29][32]. - The textile and apparel export value for the first seven months of 2025 was $170.74 billion, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, although clothing exports saw a decline of 0.3% [32][36]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight decline, with the domestic cotton price index at 15,297 yuan per ton as of September 5, 2025, down 0.3% [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The public offering's third phase of fee reduction is expected to benefit investors significantly, with an estimated annual reduction of approximately 300 million yuan [2]. - The insurance sector is seeing a strategic shift towards long-term investments, with a notable increase in the proportion of participating insurance products, which is expected to drive long-term capital inflows into the market [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the insurance industry allocated over 600 billion yuan to secondary market equities, reflecting a growing trend of insurance capital entering the stock market [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,460.32, with a slight decline of 0.81% over the week. The non-bank index fell by 4.96%, with specific declines in brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors of 5.31%, 4.03%, and 5.55% respectively [5][6]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of September 5, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.83%, with a slight increase of 0.03 basis points. The credit spreads for corporate bonds also showed minor fluctuations [12]. - The average daily trading volume in the stock market was 26,035.62 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 12.75% week-on-week but a year-to-date increase of 48.25% [15]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends three main investment lines in the brokerage sector, focusing on leading institutions benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, firms with significant earnings elasticity, and those with strong international business capabilities [2]. - In the insurance sector, continued recommendations include major players such as China Life, New China Life, and Ping An, indicating confidence in their market positions and growth potential [2].

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong performance in the electric new energy sector, with significant rebounds in the market following recent volatility, particularly in solid-state batteries and thematic investments, leading to the North Exchange outperforming the broader market [10][11]. - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 2.79%, with notable gains in stocks such as Hongyu Packaging and Tianhong Lithium, which saw increases of over 50% [15][33]. - The report suggests a focus on companies like Naconoer, Yuanhang Precision, Better Ray, and Anda Technology, as well as new stocks like Nengzhiguang, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [11][10]. Group 2 - The North Exchange's trading volume reached 7.747 billion shares, a 16.40% increase week-on-week, with a total transaction value of 179.854 billion yuan, up 9.34% [22][15]. - The report notes that the average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is 86.60 times, with a median of 51.44 times, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to other exchanges [19][15]. - The report indicates that the thematic investment atmosphere is rising, with strong stocks accounting for 80.5% of the market, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards more speculative plays [10][14]. Group 3 - The report mentions that five new companies were listed on the New Third Board this week, with a total planned financing of 597 million yuan and completed financing of 102 million yuan [48][49]. - It highlights the upcoming listing of Sanxie Electric and the subscription for Shichang Shares, indicating ongoing activity in the New Third Board [28][31]. - The report provides insights into the performance of individual stocks, with Hongyu Packaging and Tianhong Lithium leading in gains, while stocks like Xingchen Technology and Shengnan Technology faced significant declines [33][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][34]. Core Views - The report suggests that the broad housing demand in China has bottomed out, but the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline expected to be introduced further [2][34]. - The report highlights that the real estate market in core cities is at a turning point and will lead the recovery. It emphasizes the potential of new policies to create a "new product, new pricing, and new model" development track, which will enhance the market in core cities [2][34]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of August 30 to September 5, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction of 220.5 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 3.3%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 1.5%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 25.4% [3][4]. - For September, the cumulative transaction volume in 34 cities was 154 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% and a month-on-month increase of 44.1% [4][10]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the same week, 13 cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction of 94.7 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 16%. However, the cumulative transaction for September showed a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [10][12]. Inventory and Sales - In the week of August 30 to September 5, 2025, 15 cities launched 90 million square meters of new housing, with a total transaction of 86 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.96. The available residential area in these cities was 89.31 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.04% [17][19]. Policy and News Tracking - On September 5, 2025, Shenzhen announced further optimization of real estate policies, allowing residents to purchase unlimited units in specific areas, while non-residents are limited to two units. The report also notes changes in personal housing loan interest rate mechanisms and public housing fund policies [27][28]. - The report mentions that several real estate companies are actively distributing dividends and maintaining growth despite market challenges. For instance, China Jinmao announced a dividend of HKD 0.03 per share, while Huafa announced a dividend of CNY 0.02 per share [34][35]. Company Dynamics - The report tracks the performance of major real estate companies, noting that leading firms are actively engaging in share buybacks and dividend distributions. For example, China Jinmao and Huafa have announced significant dividends, while companies like Huafa and China Merchants Shekou have also engaged in share repurchase activities [34][37].

2025 年 09 月 07 日 农业银行 (01288) ——大行基本面最优，看好 AH 估值折价稳步修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（首次评级） 上 市 公 司 银行 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 05 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 5.48 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8937.09 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 5.84/3.35 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 19,004.08 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 30,738.82 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0977 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -2% 48% 98% 09/05 10/05 11/05 12/05 01/05 02/05 03/05 04/05 05/05 06/05 07/05 08/05 HSCEI 农业银行 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The report discusses the three phases of public fund reform, highlighting the reduction of transaction costs and the optimization of redemption arrangements to encourage long-term investment [4]. - The new regulations aim to lower fund fees significantly, with maximum subscription fees for equity, mixed, and bond funds reduced by 56%, 75%, and 80% respectively [4]. - The report emphasizes the expected benefits of these reforms in enhancing investor returns and increasing fund sales [4]. - The anticipated outcomes of the public fund reforms include a shift in investor behavior towards long-term investments and improved market liquidity [4]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Reform - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on the draft regulations for public fund sales fees [3]. - The proposed changes include lowering subscription fees and encouraging sales institutions to offer greater discounts [4]. - The adjustments in redemption fee structures aim to promote long-term holding of funds [4]. Financial Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of key brokerage firms, including their estimated net profits and return on equity (ROE) for 2024 and 2025 [5]. - For instance, Citic Securities is projected to have a net profit of 248.3 billion RMB in 2025, with an ROE of 9.0% [5]. - The report identifies competitive winners in the brokerage sector, recommending firms such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities based on their performance metrics [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the public fund reforms will facilitate the conversion of household savings into investments, thereby boosting market trading sentiment [4]. - It highlights the importance of liquidity support in the current market environment and suggests focusing on brokerage stocks with strong performance potential [4].

建筑装饰 2025 年 09 月 07 日 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本期投资提示： ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.37%，沪深 300 指数-0.81%，相对收益为-0.56pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为基 建民企（+8.49%）、装饰幕墙（+1.73%）、生态园林（+0.57%）， 对 应 行 业 内 三 个 公 司 ： 交 建 股 份 （ +27.67% ） 、 中 天 精 装 （+13.64%）、棕榈股份（+8.73%）；年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别 是基建民企（+39.07% ）、生态园林（+33.94%）、专业工程 （+24.66%），对应行业内三个公司：交 ...

世 界 经 济 宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 2025 年 09 月 07 日 全面"遇冷" 相关研究 - 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 联系人 王茂宇 (8621)23297818× wangmy2@swsresearch.com 美国 8 月非农数据"遇冷"：新增就业人数 2.2 万人，预期 7.5 万，失业率升至 4.3%新高。市 场从降息交易转为"衰退交易"。美国就业市场"冷"在何处、美联储降息幅度会否超预期？ 热点思考：全面"遇冷"——美国 8 月非农数据点评 （一）8 月非农数据大幅低于预期，多数行业就业状况转弱 美国 8 月非农就业大幅低于预期，失业率升至 4.3%新高。机构调查方面，美国 8 月非农新 ...

Group 1: Sovereign Debt Market Adjustments - Recent adjustments in European and Japanese sovereign debt markets have led to a global risk-off sentiment, with UK 10-year bond yields rising to 4.85% and 30-year yields reaching 5.89%, the highest since 1998[14][22] - Political instability and expectations of fiscal easing in Europe and Japan are primary drivers of rising bond yields, with UK CPI inflation at 3.7% and Japan's core-core CPI at 3.4%[3][37] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) are shifting towards tighter monetary policies, contributing to the upward pressure on long-term bond yields[4][41] Group 2: US Monetary Market Pressure Test - The US monetary market is undergoing a "stress test" due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, TGA account rebuilding, and seasonal corporate tax payments, reminiscent of the 2019 repo crisis[5][45] - In September 2019, secured overnight financing rates (SOFR) spiked to 5.25%, highlighting liquidity shortages, with a similar environment emerging now but with manageable risks[49][50] - Current liquidity remains ample, and the Fed has tools to manage potential pressures, indicating that while risks exist, they are not imminent[56][61] Group 3: Reassessment of US Treasury Risks - The risk of a repeat of the "Treasury tantrum" is considered controllable, with factors such as a larger TGA funding gap and increased long-term debt issuance influencing market stability[6][63] - The US economy is projected to grow at around 5% in Q3 2023, but inflationary pressures remain, with Brent crude oil prices fluctuating around $90 per barrel[6][63] - The long-term outlook for US Treasury yields suggests an upward trend driven by fiscal dominance and rising term premiums, with market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 being overly optimistic[66][68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, which met expectations, with a revenue of 3.733 billion yuan for H1 2025, essentially flat compared to H1 2024, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 244 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.94% [7]. - The data center business is highlighted as the company's core competitive advantage and long-term growth driver, with revenue from data center products reaching 784 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.19% [7]. - The company is actively building a heterogeneous computing power platform in collaboration with domestic AI firms, which is expected to create a second growth curve for its IDC services [7]. - The smart energy and new energy segments are focusing on high-quality development, with smart energy products generating 439 million yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 22.56%, while new energy products generated 1.852 billion yuan, down 4.22% year-on-year [7]. - The company is positioned as a core player in the AI wave, benefiting from its deep understanding of power supply products and long-term partnerships with major firms, which may allow it to capture a unique market position similar to that of Vertiv [7]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 682 million yuan, 971 million yuan, and 1.281 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a PE ratio of 42, 29, and 22 for those years [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 9.369 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.8% [6]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted growth rate of 116.5% compared to the previous year [6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 25.2% in 2024 to 26.3% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [6].