Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the resurgence of the commercial aerospace sector driven by the space photovoltaic theme, with significant stock performance from companies like Liancheng CNC and Optec [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 2.6%, while trading volume decreased, indicating a shift of funds from large-cap indices to small-cap stocks [6][16] - The report notes that public fund disclosures for Q4 2025 show a decrease in the market value of heavy holdings in the North Exchange, suggesting a trend of profit-taking among investors [12] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of Elon Musk's statements at the Davos Forum, which have activated interest in the space photovoltaic sector, with a focus on companies like Liancheng CNC [13] - Investment analysis suggests maintaining high market activity before the Spring Festival, with recommendations to invest in undervalued stocks and sectors with good growth prospects, such as semiconductors and AI computing [13] - The report details the performance of new stocks listed on the North Exchange, including Aisheren and Guoliang New Materials, which saw significant first-day price increases [28][31] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance, noting that 218 stocks rose while 71 fell, with a rise-to-fall ratio of 3.07, indicating a strong market sentiment [38] - It highlights the top-performing stocks of the week, including Huawai Design and Liancheng CNC, which experienced substantial gains [40] - The report also discusses the trading dynamics, with a notable decrease in trading volume and turnover rates for certain stocks, reflecting market volatility [43][26] Group 4 - The report outlines the new listings and financing activities in the New Third Board, indicating a healthy pipeline of new companies entering the market [49] - It mentions the completion of financing for several companies, showcasing the ongoing interest and investment in emerging sectors [50][51] - The report concludes with a summary of the current state of the New Third Board, including the number of companies listed and the financing amounts raised [49][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent small - and micro - cap stocks have been active. Despite policy - driven cooling signals, they still benefit from loose liquidity, with the CSI 2000 and Wind Small - and Micro - Cap Index leading the gains. Convertible bonds, which are well - matched in style, have seen a significant rise in their underlying stocks, leading to a simultaneous increase in their valuation. Valuation indicators such as the convertible bond's 100 - yuan premium rate and the median price have reached new highs since 2017. Structurally, the price ranges of 130 - 140 yuan and above 150 yuan have shown strong performance, while newly - issued convertible bonds have underperformed. Currently, there is a consensus on the bull market in the equity market, with high capital activity. Convertible bonds are experiencing a "double - hit" market in terms of parity and valuation, but in the state of strong equity characteristics and high conversion premium rates, the risk of forced redemptions of individual bonds should still be guarded against [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Outlook - Small - and micro - cap stocks are active. The convertible bond market is well - matched in style, with a significant increase in the underlying stocks and a simultaneous rise in valuation. High - parity convertible bonds are active, while newly - issued ones perform poorly. There is a "double - hit" market, but forced redemption risks should be noted [2][3]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks of convertible bonds performed actively, and the convertible bonds rose in tandem. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 0.9% to 33.5%, reaching the 100th percentile since 2017 and remaining above the 2 - times standard deviation [2][4]. - The valuation of convertible bonds in each parity range has increased significantly. The increase in the equity - biased area is slightly higher than that in the bond - biased area, but the gap has narrowed. The valuation in the 120 - 140 yuan parity range has increased significantly due to the high activity of underlying stocks, while the valuation in the range above 140 yuan has only increased slightly due to forced redemption disturbances [2][8]. - From the perspective of individual bonds, in the high - parity area, the conversion premium rates of Xinfu and Yinbang have decreased significantly due to the forced redemption process and rising forced - redemption expectations, while the valuations of Shuangliang, Hebang, Ruike, Zhoubang, Hengshuai, and Daimei have increased significantly due to the significant rise of their underlying stocks. The valuations in the balanced and bond - biased areas have generally increased slightly. The valuations of near - maturity bonds are weak, and the valuation of newly - issued Anke bonds is slowly compressing [2][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Tianjian, Fuli, Sailong, Shentong, Beigang, and Huazheng convertible bonds announced redemptions, and 2 convertible bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced - redemption rate of 75%. Currently, there are 49 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 8 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 10 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 26 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [2][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Hongchuan convertible bonds proposed a downward revision, and Fangyuan convertible bonds announced the result of the downward revision (not revised to the bottom). As of now, 101 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward - revision range, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced while the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price, 16 are accumulating the days for downward revision, and 3 have issued the board of directors' pre - plans for downward revision but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [2][23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - No convertible bonds issued conditional put - option announcements this week. As of now, 3 convertible bonds are accumulating the days to trigger the put option, among which 1 has proposed a downward revision, and 2 are in the temporary non - downward - revision range [2][27]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 10 convertible bonds in the process of approval for registration, with a total issuance scale of 8.8 billion yuan, and no convertible bonds are in the process of passing the listing committee [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2026, the CSI 500 Index has performed prominently among major broad - based indices, breaking the historical monotonicity of performance based on market - value factors. Whether this phenomenon will continue requires further observation. The concentration of hot industries and a small number of stocks contributing a large portion of the index's gains have made it difficult to outperform the index. Also, factor inefficiencies, especially the reversal of price - volume factors, have led to the underperformance of index - enhancement products and quantitative strategies [1][4]. - The current market situation is an extreme case in factor performance. Although no single factor has reached its historical worst, the combined performance of multiple factors is the worst in history. However, based on historical experience, factor logic will return as market volatility decreases, usually within two months [1][40]. - Looking ahead, the situation of factor inefficiency or reversal is not expected to last long, so major model adjustments are not advisable at present. In the long run, a detailed risk - control framework for CSI 500 index enhancement should be established, and the construction of price - volume factors should be optimized [1][70]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2026 Year - to - Date CSI 500 Index Performance Highlights - As of January 23, 2026, the CSI 500 Index has risen 15.06%, outperforming the SSE 300, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 indices during the same period, breaking the historical monotonicity of broad - based index performance related to market - value factors [4]. - The index's strong performance is due to its concentration in sectors that have performed well in 2026, such as electronics, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military industries. A small number of stocks have contributed significantly to the index's gains; the top 5 stocks contributed 1.47% of the increase, and the top 40 stocks contributed nearly half of the increase [7][11]. 3.2 Factor Perspective: Why Is It Difficult to Outperform the CSI 500 Index? 3.2.1 Index - Enhancement Funds Collectively Underperform the Index - All CSI 500 index - enhancement funds have underperformed the CSI 500 Index in 2026, with an average underperformance of 2.5%. The best - performing product underperformed by 0.12%, and the worst by 7.93%. Active quantitative quasi - index - enhancement products were more affected, with an average underperformance of 3.91%, the best - performing product underperforming by 2.07%, and the worst by 7.61% [13][15]. 3.2.2 Factor Changes within the CSI 500 Index - Since 2017, the market - value factors in the SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices have shown continuous reversal and decline. The market - value factor in the CSI 1000 index rebounded strongly in 2021, while those in the CSI 500 and SSE 300 indices only had a weak rebound [16]. - In 2026, many factors in the CSI 500 Index showed significant anomalies. Fundamental factors such as profitability, dividend yield, and valuation were negative, and price - volume factors such as liquidity, reversal, market value, and volatility not only reversed but also had larger IC values. The short - term rapid market rise and overheated market led to the continued rise of theme stocks with fast short - term gains, high turnover, and high volatility, causing the reversal and ineffectiveness of price - volume factors [19][20]. - The long - term winning rates of factors such as valuation, momentum, reversal, market value, and liquidity are poor, around 50% or lower. In 2026, there was a concentrated reversal of price - volume factors, and the low - volatility factor, which had a high long - term winning rate, also reversed in January 2026 [26]. - The changes in the four price - volume factors (market value, reversal, low liquidity, and low volatility) generally started in the third quarter of 2025, gradually flattening or reversing. The top - performing stocks in 2026 generally ranked low in these price - volume factors, making it difficult for traditional multi - factor frameworks to select them [35]. 3.3 Historical Similar Situations Review and Future Outlook 3.3.1 The Current Market Is an Extreme Case in Factor Performance - In January 2026, no single factor reached its historical worst IC value. However, the combined performance of the four price - volume factors was the worst in history, and when considering all nine factors, it was the second - worst, only after June 2022 [39][40]. 3.3.2 Historical Similar Situations of the CSI 500 and Subsequent Developments - Similar extreme situations in factor performance have occurred in June 2018, August 2025, etc. Market fluctuations are an important factor affecting factor effectiveness. When the market fluctuates significantly, factors are likely to become ineffective, and when the market stabilizes, factor logic tends to return. Historical experience shows that factor inefficiency usually does not last more than two months [42][69]. 3.3.3 Future Outlook - The situation of factor inefficiency or reversal is not expected to last long, so major model adjustments are not recommended at present. - In the long run, a detailed risk - control framework for CSI 500 index enhancement should be established, including differential constraints on individual stocks with different excess - volatility characteristics and industry - constraint frameworks based on industry - scoring models. - The construction of price - volume factors should be optimized to improve their winning rates and reduce non - linear characteristics [70][71].

(01368) 型公司 纺织服饰 2026 年 01 月 25 日 主品牌表现稳健,索康尼延续强劲趋势 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 婴人(维持) | 市场数据: | 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 5.08 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9160.81 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 6.83/4.46 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 142.55 | | 流通 H 股 (百万股) | 2,806.07 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8968 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 76% 26% 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位:人民币 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025E | FY202 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 神工股份 (688233) 硅零部件连续 3 年高增，刻蚀硅材料景气回归 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 型入(维持) | 市场数据: 2026 年 01 月 23 日 | | --- | | 收盘价（元） 88.60 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 92.23/18.36 | | 市净率 8.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 0.08 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 15,089 | | ┣证指数/深证成指 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 10.90 | | 资产负债率% | 7.21 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 170/170 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | -年内股价与大盛对比走势： 神工股份 沪深300指数 相关研究 《神工股份（688233） 点评： 硅材料毛利 率修复至 64%, 硅零件营收高增 2 倍》 2025/03/28 《神工股份（688233）点评：刻蚀材料周 期见底,硅零件收入同比+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The main brand of the company shows stable performance, while the subsidiary brand, Saucony, continues its strong growth trend. The overall performance aligns with expectations, with the main brand achieving low single-digit growth for the year [6] - The company has successfully optimized its multi-brand matrix by divesting from fashion sports brands and focusing on core running business, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in the running segment [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 143 billion RMB - FY2024: 136 billion RMB (down 5%) - FY2025E: 142.8 billion RMB (up 5%) - FY2026E: 151 billion RMB (up 6%) - FY2027E: 161 billion RMB (up 6%) [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2023: 10.3 billion RMB - FY2024: 12.4 billion RMB (up 20%) - FY2025E: 13.7 billion RMB (up 11%) - FY2026E: 14.9 billion RMB (up 8%) - FY2027E: 16.0 billion RMB (up 8%) [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.41 RMB in FY2023 to 0.57 RMB in FY2027 [5] Sales Performance - The main brand's retail sales performance for Q4 2023 showed over 30% year-on-year growth, with a stable discount rate of 7-7.5 [10] - The company plans to open 20-30 new flagship stores in 2026 and has already opened around 30 outlet stores, with an average monthly sales performance exceeding 1 million RMB [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant increase in revenue from silicon components over the past three years, with a notable recovery in the etching silicon materials market [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a resurgence in global storage semiconductor demand and accelerated domestic substitution in the second half of 2025 [8] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting a positive outlook due to increasing demand [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2024: 303 million - 2025: 441 million - 2026: 764 million - 2027: 1,028 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at: - 2024: 124.2% - 2025: 45.8% - 2026: 73.2% - 2027: 34.5% [7] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2024: 41 million - 2025: 105 million - 2026: 222 million - 2027: 319 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2025: 155.4% - 2026: 110.8% - 2027: 44.0% [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, reaching 47.3% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly on leading companies in the white and black goods sectors, highlighting their low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth potential [2][3]. Core Insights - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **Dividend and Growth**: Leading companies in the white and black goods sectors are characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, providing a high safety margin and significant price elasticity. The impact of the trade-in policy is expected to continue positively into 2026 [2][3]. 2. **Technological Transition**: Key upstream component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging technology sectors such as robotics, data center temperature control, and semiconductors, seeking cross-industry transformation [2][3]. 3. **Market Demand**: Both domestic and international markets show promising demand, with established companies expanding production bases globally to mitigate trade fluctuations and capture growth in emerging markets [2][3]. Sales Data Summary - **Air Conditioning**: In December 2025, online retail sales volume was 720,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5%, while offline sales volume was 162,000 units, down 42.9%. The average online retail price decreased by 4.2% to 2,981 yuan per unit, and the offline average price fell by 20.1% to 3,801 yuan per unit [2][3][35]. - **Kitchen Appliances**: - **Range Hoods**: Online sales volume was 443,000 units, down 16.8%, while offline sales were 57,000 units, down 32.1%. The online average price increased by 14.4% to 1,739 yuan per unit, while the offline average price decreased by 14.4% to 3,813 yuan per unit [3][41]. - **Dishwashers**: Online sales volume was 49,000 units, down 10.2%, and offline sales were 5,000 units, down 44.2%. The online average price decreased by 1.1% to 4,245 yuan per unit, while the offline average price increased by 1.4% to 7,990 yuan per unit [3][41]. Company Updates - **Yitian Intelligent**: Forecasts a net loss of 186 to 152 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 26.54 million yuan in 2024 [5][11]. - **Roborock Technology**: Launched new products including the G30S Pro and P20 Ultra, featuring advanced cleaning technologies and high efficiency [5][12]. - **Stock Performance**: The home appliance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with notable gains from companies like Aojiahua (10.1%) and Hisense Visual (5.7%) [5][6][8]. Macro Economic Environment - As of January 23, 2026, the USD to RMB exchange rate was 6.9929, reflecting a decrease of 0.51% since the beginning of the year [46][48]. - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,135.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.86% [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating it is currently undervalued compared to the market, with a recommendation to focus on the sector's beta attributes and potential catalysts such as upcoming earnings reports [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has seen a significant increase in allocation from active equity funds, with the proportion of non-bank sector holdings rising to 2.96%, up 102 basis points quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the three-year average of 1.63% [2]. - The report highlights that the earnings forecasts for 2025 are showing strong growth, with companies like Everbright Securities expecting a net profit of 3.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22% [2]. - The insurance sector is experiencing a decline, with the insurance index dropping 4.62%, underperforming the market [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,702.50, with a decline of 0.62% over the week, while the non-bank index fell by 1.45% [5]. Non-Bank Sector Insights - The report notes that the brokerage sector is currently experiencing a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, suggesting a potential for recovery as market conditions improve [2]. - Key brokerage firms such as Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential [2]. Individual Company Announcements - China Pacific Insurance reported a cumulative premium income growth of 8.1% for 2025, indicating resilience in its business model [10]. - Guotai Junan Securities anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a growth of approximately 406% [13]. - Northeast Securities expects a net profit increase of 69.06% for 2025, driven by enhanced market conditions [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms with strong competitive positions, such as Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities, as well as firms with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities and Dongfang Securities [2]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life, New China Life, and Ping An are recommended for their potential value re-evaluation opportunities [2].

2026 年 01 月 25 日 站院/行业 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 册分歧式行 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 T 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+1.88%，沪深 300 指 数-0.62%，相对收益为+2.00pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为钢结 构 (+6.80%)、基建民企 (+6.61%)、专业工程 (+5.88%)，对应行业 内三个公司：东南网架（+10.79%）、成都路桥（+15.65%）、志特新材 (+49.21%)；年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是钢结构（+22.00%）、专 业工程（+21.74%）、装饰幕墙（+10.85%），对应行业内三个公司：杭 萧钢构 (+30.98%)、志特新材 (+256.3 ...