行 业 及 产 业 汽车/ 商用车 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 相关研究 《技术政策双轮驱动，行业正处高速增长 阶段——载具纪元新章系列 1： Robotaxi 白皮书》 2025/12/16 证券分析师 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 联系人 汪琦阳 A0230125070006 wangqy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 19 日 无人载物场景多元，逐步迈向规模 化时刻 看好 —— 载具纪元新章系列 2：无人驾驶载物白皮书 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 ⚫ 无人载物场景多样，技术政策双轮驱动，逐步迈向规模化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of performance relative to the market [4]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on a dual-driven strategy of organic growth and acquisitions, with a particular emphasis on three major strategic areas: Super Brand, Super Chain, and Super Digitalization [6]. - The acquisition of 100% of the shares of Siyanli for 1.25 billion RMB (approximately 1.369 billion HKD) is expected to enhance market share and accelerate the company's strategic layout [4]. - The company has increased its stake in Nairui to 90%, with significant improvements in operational efficiency post-acquisition, reflected in a rise in adjusted net profit margin from 6.5% to 10.4% [5]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth from 2,145 million RMB in 2023 to 4,541 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 31.16% [8]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from 241 million RMB in 2023 to 540 million RMB in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 53.18% in 2023 [8]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.05 RMB in 2023 to 2.29 RMB in 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the industry investment is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by the orderly debt resolution of local governments and the implementation of central "dual heavy" projects [4][11] - The company has shown marginal improvement in new contract signings, with a robust backlog ensuring long-term steady growth. The cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2025 Q1-3 show a mixed trend, with a notable improvement in 2025 [4][11] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with enhanced cash flow and optimized accounts receivable aging structure. Despite revenue and profit pressures, the company has implemented a three-year plan to control financial metrics [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed down this year, affecting infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate sectors. However, investment is expected to stabilize in 2026 due to government initiatives [4][11] Company Performance - The company’s new contract signings from 2021 to 2025 Q1-3 are as follows: +10.39% in 2021, +15.09% in 2022, +1.51% in 2023, -7.80% in 2024, and +3.08% in 2025. The backlog of contracts stands at 8.10 trillion RMB, ensuring steady growth [4][11] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 728.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.8 billion RMB, down 5.6% year-on-year [4][11] Financial Metrics - As of December 15, 2025, the company's A-share PE (TTM) is 5.0X and PB is 0.32X, while H-share PE (TTM) is 3.6X and PB is 0.21X, indicating a significant discount for H-shares compared to A-shares [5][11] - The company has distributed cash dividends from 2021 to 2024 amounting to 3.34 billion, 3.80 billion, 4.75 billion, and 4.07 billion RMB, representing 15.37%, 15.91%, 20.18%, and 20.60% of the distributable profits, respectively [5][11] Investment Recommendation - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 21.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 22.2 billion RMB, respectively. The estimated market value based on 2026 data is 77.9 billion RMB, suggesting a potential upside of 14.7% from the current market cap [6][11]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the industry investment is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by the orderly debt resolution of local governments and the implementation of central "dual" projects [2][10] - The company has shown marginal improvement in new contract signings, with a robust backlog ensuring long-term steady growth. The cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 show a year-on-year increase of +10.39%, +15.09%, +1.51%, and a decrease of -7.80%, followed by a recovery of +3.08% in 2025 [2][10] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with enhanced cash flow and optimized accounts receivable aging structure. The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 728.4 billion, a decrease of -3.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.8 billion, down -5.6% [3][10] - The H-shares are significantly discounted compared to A-shares, with H-share dividend yields being more attractive. As of December 15, 2025, the A-share PE (TTM) and PB were 5.0X and 0.32X, while the H-share PE (TTM) and PB were 3.6X and 0.21X, respectively [4][10] - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the company, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 21.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 22.2 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 3X for each year [5][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report anticipates a stabilization of industry investment in 2026, driven by local government debt resolution and central project implementations [2][10] Company Performance - New contract signings have shown marginal improvement, with a significant backlog of 8.1 trillion RMB, ensuring long-term growth [2][10] - The company has faced revenue and profit pressures, with a total revenue of 728.4 billion RMB and a net profit of 14.8 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025 [3][10] Financial Health - The balance sheet is improving, with better cash flow and a more favorable accounts receivable aging structure [3][10] - The H-shares are trading at a notable discount compared to A-shares, with higher dividend yields for H-shares [4][10] Investment Recommendation - The report provides an "Overweight" rating, with projected net profits and PE ratios for the coming years [5][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a long-term perspective for the company, highlighting its strong brand foundation and consumer base, which are expected to support a return to stable growth after short-term adjustments [7] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 26.6 billion, 26.7 billion, and 29.1 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year changes of -16.5%, +0.5%, and +8.9% respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16x for 2025 and 2026, and 15x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is forecasted as follows: 2024: 89,175; 2025: 75,766; 2026: 75,999; 2027: 82,021, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.1%, -15.0%, 0.3%, and 7.9% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million yuan) is projected to be: 2024: 31,853; 2025: 26,595; 2026: 26,718; 2027: 29,094, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, -16.5%, 0.5%, and 8.9% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to be: 2024: 8.21; 2025: 6.85; 2026: 6.88; 2027: 7.50 [2] Market Data - As of December 18, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 110.43 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 3.0 and a dividend yield of 7.54% [4] - The stock's market capitalization is 428.628 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 3,882 million [4] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its product matrix and optimizing its distribution channels to maintain market share amid external pressures [7] - In 2025, the company plans to strengthen its presence in key markets and improve sales through targeted marketing strategies [7] - The company aims to expand its online presence and improve its supply structure in e-commerce channels [7]

Investment Strategy Update - The investment strategy for the automotive sector has been updated for 2026 due to two key changes: the unfulfilled subsidies in Q4 2025 and adjustments in the "two new subsidies" policy, along with the State Administration for Market Regulation's draft guidelines aimed at preventing chaotic price wars, which may increase survival pressure on low-margin automakers [2][3] - The revised strategy focuses on the mid-to-high-end market and overseas expansion, categorized into three tiers: the first tier includes companies less affected by industry fluctuations, such as BAIC and JAC; the second tier includes other mid-to-high-end brands like XPeng and NIO; the third tier includes mainstream brands like BYD and Geely that have overseas or mid-to-high-end transformation potential [3][4] High-End Intelligent Driving - High-level intelligent driving has entered the engineering phase, with L2+ and L3 features expected to become standard configurations in the industry; high-end vehicles will offer superior experiences through advanced configurations, while mid-range vehicles will adopt basic usable features [4] - The year 2024 is anticipated to mark the beginning of "intelligent driving equality," with related features expected to be widely adopted in vehicles priced above 130,000 to 150,000 yuan [4] Fuda Co., Ltd. Update - Fuda Co., Ltd. has made significant progress in its robotics business, recently signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Changban Technology and Yiyou Robotics to create a comprehensive ecosystem for humanoid robot joint solutions [5] - The company is positioning its robotics components business as a strategic new business, focusing on mass production of planetary gear products and collaborating with Changban Technology to enhance capabilities in linear and rotational actuators [5] - Fuda's partnerships and strategic focus are expected to accelerate its layout in humanoid robots and intelligent equipment, with more developments anticipated in the future [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic strong alpha manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, XPeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies benefiting from the trend of intelligentization like Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [2][5] - It also suggests paying attention to state-owned enterprise reforms and recommending companies like SAIC Motor, Dongfeng Motor, and Changan Automobile, along with component manufacturers with strong growth and overseas expansion capabilities such as Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and Fuda [2][5] Valuation Overview - A valuation table for key automotive companies is provided, showing metrics such as market capitalization, price-to-book (PB) ratios, and projected net profit growth rates for 2024 to 2026, highlighting significant variations among companies [7]

盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 18 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 联系人 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 百亿市场规模，人工培育方兴未艾 看好 —— 冬虫夏草行业深度研究报告 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：冬虫夏草价格大幅下跌；项目进展不及预期；食品安全风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 - 结论和投资分析意见 冬虫夏草作为中国独有的菌类药材，在国内具有较为悠久的消费历史，需求端相 对稳定。而供给端受限于自然资源与环境的限制，天然冬虫夏草的产量长周期处于下 滑的趋势之中。人工种植的冬虫夏草在成分上与天然虫草差异较小，安全性更为可 靠，价格更加亲民，在人工培育技术稳定后，有望取代部分天 ...

班牙/分出京 2025 年 12 月 18 日 证券分析师 看好 相关研究 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 军工外延效应显著,继续关注 航天板块 -国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 51 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 2.8%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 1.73%，同期上证综指下跌 0.34%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业板 指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周国 防军工板块 2.8%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 2 位。2、从我们构建的军 工集团指数变化来看,上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名靠前,平均涨幅为 4.34%。3、从个 股表现来看，申万国防军工板块及民参军上市公司名单中，剔除停牌个股后，上周国防 军工板块涨幅排名前五的个股分别为航天动力（42.17%）、西部材料（40.98%）、赛 微电子（29.37%）、派克新材（20.54%）、航天工程（18.73%）。上周国防军工板块 涨幅排名后五的个股分别为*ST 奥维（ ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 18 日 军工外延效应显著，继续关注商业 航天板块 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 51 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 2.8%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 1.73%，同期上证综指下跌 0.34%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业板 指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周国 防军工板块 2.8%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 2 位。2、从我们构建的军 工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 奕强 A0230524110003 luangiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com | 1．前世：2022 年之前 30Y 国债关注度不高 5 | | --- | | 2. 今生: 2022 年-2024 年, 30Y 国债定价权向交易盘转移 | | …… | | 2.1 定价"物价持续偏低" 叙事+缺少技术变革… 2.2 流动性改善是催化剂， "资产荒" 是主驱动 … | | 3.今生: 当下 30Y 国债面临"资产荒"缓解与供需结构错配 | | …… | | 3.1 "资产荒"缓解的镜像：我国 AI 技术突破叠加反内卷，经济预期扭 | | 转 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...