Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market experienced a decline, with long-term bonds falling more than short-term ones. The outlook suggests that market risk appetite is increasing following a court ruling against Trump's global tariff policy, indicating a potential shift to a volatile mode for treasury futures [16][5]. - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the ChiNext index rising by 1.37%. The total trading volume reached 1.21 trillion, an increase of 0.18 trillion from the previous day, with over 4,400 stocks rising. The market is expected to enter a volatile phase with rotation among technology, dividend, and consumer sectors [19][21]. - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down by 0.58%, Nasdaq by 0.51%, and S&P 500 by 0.56%. The rising U.S. Treasury yields are a concern, and the narrative of recession may become a focal point for market trading in the future [24][25]. Group 2: Currency Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1888, a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous close. The RMB appreciated significantly due to favorable impacts from U.S.-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [28][29]. Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.13%, with mixed performance across sectors. Oil, polyester, and steel saw slight increases, while coal, building materials, and precious metals led the declines. The overall technical structure of the commodity market remains bearish, suggesting a cautious approach [31][32].

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2025-05-29 食品饮料相对指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 结果评估： 区间年化收益：0.52% 波动率（年化）：14.35% 夏普率：0.04 最大回撤：14.00% 指数期间总回报率：-21.90% 工 程 点 评 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 [Table_Summary] [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 融 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 设计原理：模型假定标的价格走势具有很好的局部延续性，标的价格永远处 于某一趋势中，出现反转行情的持续时间明显小于趋势延续的时间，若出现 窄幅盘整的情况，亦假设其延续之前的趋势。当处于大级别的趋势之中时， 给定较短时间的观察窗口，走势将延续观察窗口内的局部趋势。而当趋势发 生反转时， ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Industry Crowdedness Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowdedness levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowdedness levels to provide insights for potential investment opportunities or risks [4] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates the crowdedness levels of each industry index based on specific metrics (not explicitly detailed in the report) 2. Daily updates are performed to track changes in crowdedness levels across industries 3. Industries with significant changes in crowdedness levels are highlighted for further analysis [4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industries with extreme crowdedness levels, providing actionable insights for investors [4] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of their premium rates over a rolling window [5] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The premium rate of each ETF is calculated as the difference between its market price and net asset value (NAV) 2. A rolling window is applied to compute the Z-score of the premium rate for each ETF 3. ETFs with Z-scores exceeding a certain threshold are flagged as potential arbitrage opportunities [5] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to detect arbitrage opportunities while also warning of potential price corrections [5] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Industry Crowdedness Monitoring Model - **Top Crowded Industries**: Basic Chemicals, Textile & Apparel, Light Manufacturing [4] - **Least Crowded Industries**: Real Estate, Electronics, Social Services, Steel, Non-Banking Financials [4] - **Significant Daily Changes**: Petroleum & Petrochemicals experienced notable daily crowdedness changes [4] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Highlighted ETFs for Arbitrage**: Specific ETFs flagged for potential arbitrage opportunities are not detailed in the report [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [8]. Core Insights - Aurobindo Pharma reported Q4 revenue of 83.82 billion INR, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, while net profit slightly declined by 0.5% to 9.03 billion INR [3][4]. - The Q4 revenue reached a historical high, driven by sales growth, new product launches, and stable market prices, despite one-time operating expenses impacting EBITDA by over 1.05 billion INR [4]. - The U.S. and European markets showed strong growth, with U.S. formulation sales at 40.72 billion INR (up 13.5%) and European formulation sales at 21.47 billion INR (up 17.2%), while emerging markets saw a decline of 7.8% to 7.86 billion INR [5]. - For FY2026, the company anticipates high single-digit revenue growth and stable profit margins, with two biosimilars expected to contribute to revenue starting in FY2026 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 revenue was 83.82 billion INR, with a gross margin of 59.1% and EBITDA of 17.92 billion INR, reflecting a 6.2% increase [4]. - Net profit for Q4 was 9.03 billion INR, showing a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year [4]. Market Analysis - U.S. formulation business accounted for 48.6% of total sales, while European formulation business represented 25.6% [5]. - Emerging markets contributed 9.4% to total sales, indicating a slowdown in growth [5]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth in FY2026 to be in the high single digits, with profit margins remaining stable [5]. - New product launches in the U.S. are anticipated to drive rapid growth in the injection and specialty formulation segments by FY2027 [5].

食品饮料行业 证券研究报告 |古茗深度报告 2025/5/27 平价茶饮之王，供应链打造下沉 市场领跑者 郭梦婕 S1190523080002 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 林叙希 S1190525030001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： P2 报告摘要 10-20元价格带茶饮龙头，2021-2024年公司营收/门店数量CAGR为26%/20%。古茗于2010年在浙江省温岭市大溪镇成立，按2024年GMV以 及门店数量统计，是中国最大的10-20元价格带现制茶饮品牌。公司凭借高效的供应链体系以及下沉市场深耕优势，形成"规模扩张→品牌 强 化 →盈 利 提升 " 的正 向 循环 。 截至 2024 年末 公 司门 店 数量 达 9914家 ， 一线 /新 一线 /二 线/三 线 /四 线及 以 下门 店分 别 占比 3%/17%/29%/27%/24%。2021-2024年公司营收/归母净利润CAGR为26%/319%，业绩增长迅速主因门店快速扩张，2021-2024门店数量CAGR 达20%。2024年公司实现营业总收入87.91亿元，同比+14.5%，实现归母净利润14.8亿元，同比+36.9%。 现 ...

贸易战背景下出口贡献减弱，提振内需成为中长期主线。中国过去依靠出口和投资拉动经济增长，居民资产中房产占比较重， 2023年中国居民家庭住房资产占总资产约61%，高于英国的50%、日本的38%、美国的28%，居民消费比例偏低，中国居民消费占 GDP比重为38-40%，对比发达国家仍有差距，如美国和日本分别占比68-70%和55-60%，较其他国家中长期仍有巨大提升空间，贸易 战背景下出口贡献减弱，提振消费和扩大内需是必然进程。促消费政策持续落地，2025年3月召开的两会国家对于消费提及次数高于 之前，政策层首次将提高居民财产性收入写入报告。消费刺激政策从我们去年看到的国补、消费券已经开始逐步落到实处如提升公 务员薪资、为骑手缴纳社保、发放新生儿补贴等，更多从居民实际收入和现金补贴着手。呼和浩特新生儿补贴政策超预期，深圳陆 续跟进，后续有望扩大到更多城市。2025年1-3月经济演绎弱复苏趋势，2025Q1社零总额同比增长4.6%，增速稳定趋势向好。 食品饮料行业 证券研究报告 |行业深度报告 2025/05/28 拥抱新消费的浪潮 证券分析师: 郭梦婕 分析师登记编号: S1190523080002 P2 报告摘 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199) with a target price based on the last closing price of 37.29 [1][8]. Core Views - Jiuhua Tourism has announced a private placement plan to raise up to 500 million yuan, aimed at enhancing the core competitiveness of its scenic area through projects such as the Lion Peak cableway, hotel renovations, and transportation upgrades [4][5]. - The major shareholder, Wenlv Group, will participate significantly in the private placement, increasing its shareholding from 29.93% to 30.40% [4]. - The funds raised will be used to address uneven tourist distribution in the Jiuhua Mountain scenic area, improve the overall visitor experience, and enhance the scenic area's capacity [5][6]. Financial Projections - Jiuhua Tourism is expected to achieve net profits of 212 million yuan, 236 million yuan, and 263 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.86%, 11.62%, and 11.37% [6][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.91 yuan, 2.14 yuan, and 2.38 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.5X, 17.5X, and 15.7X [6][9]. Business Strategy - The company aims to optimize its business layout to enhance competitiveness in the tourism market, which includes improving the quality of hotel accommodations and transportation networks to meet diverse visitor needs [5][6]. - The Lion Peak cableway project is a key initiative that will improve accessibility and promote balanced development across the scenic area [5]. - Renovations of key hotels are expected to enhance service quality and increase profitability in the tourism accommodation sector [6].

Quantitative Model and Construction - **Model Name**: Relative Index Trend Tracking Model for Steel Industry - **Model Construction Idea**: The model assumes that the price movement of the target has strong local continuity, with prices always in a certain trend. Reversal trends are assumed to last significantly shorter than trend continuation periods. In cases of narrow consolidation, the model assumes the continuation of the previous trend. For large-scale trends, given a short observation window, the movement is expected to follow the local trend within the window. When a reversal occurs, the price change at the start and end of the observation window will exceed the range caused by random fluctuations, thus filtering out random noise[3][4] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the difference between the closing price on day T and day T-20, denoted as `del` 2. Calculate the volatility (`Vol`) over the period from T-20 to T (excluding T) 3. If the absolute value of `del` exceeds N times `Vol`, the price is considered to have exited the original oscillation range, forming a trend. The trend direction (long or short) corresponds to the sign of `del` 4. If the absolute value of `del` is less than or equal to N times `Vol`, the current movement is considered a continuation of the previous trend (same direction as day T-1) 5. For the steel industry, N is set to 1 to capture smaller wave opportunities due to higher market volatility compared to bonds 6. The model tracks both long and short returns, combining them for final evaluation[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is not suitable for direct application to the relative value of the SW First-Level Steel Index. It underperformed during the tracking period, with significant downward trends in specific sub-periods. The model's annualized return was lower than the total return of the index, and it remained in a drawdown state for most of the tracking period[4] Model Backtest Results - **Annualized Return**: -15.42%[3] - **Annualized Volatility**: 15.00%[3] - **Sharpe Ratio**: -1.03[3] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 34.62%[3] - **Total Return of Index During Period**: -9.08%[3]

2025 年 05 月 26 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——5 月第 3 期：红利领涨 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/5/27 24/8/7 24/10/18 24/12/29 25/3/11 25/5/22 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 市场估值普跌，医药生物、有色金属领涨。上周宽基指数估值普跌， 红利表现最优，成长表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、 农林牧渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 小幅上 升，处于一倍标准差附近。 市场表现：红利、周期、消费表现最好；科创 50、成长、国证 2000 表现最弱。 行业表现：医药生物、综合、有色金属涨幅前三，计算机、机械设备、 通信表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 上升，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 下降。 全 A ERP：ERP 小幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The company has shown rapid growth in its pig farming business, with a significant increase in the number of pigs sold and continuous optimization in cost management [3][4]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 5.584 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.51%, with a net profit of CNY 687 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 271.16% [3][6]. - The company is recognized as a regional leader in the pig farming industry, with a flexible operating model and strong cost management capabilities [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 5.584 billion, with a net profit of CNY 687 million, and an EPS of CNY 1.31 [3][6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 1.471 billion, with a net profit of CNY 22.8 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 6510.85% [3]. Business Segments - The pig farming segment generated CNY 3.797 billion in revenue in 2024, up 81.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.42% [3]. - The slaughtering and meat products segment achieved revenue of CNY 1.386 billion in 2024, a 20.89% increase, with a gross margin of 15.52% [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to have a net profit of CNY 762 million in 2025 and CNY 836 million in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.15x and 10.17x [5][6]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 34.13% for 2025 and 23.68% for 2026 [6].