宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/4/17 3月经济数据点评—— 春节错位叠加政策效应，经济延续复苏走势 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 1、一季度经济延续复苏态势 2、新质生产力支撑工业生产加快扩张 3、政策效应持续支持社零超预期回升 4、基建及制造业投资依旧为主要贡献 5、节后失业率季节性回落 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 ➢中国第一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，预期5.2%，去年全年同比增5.0%，去年第四季度同比增5.4%。 ➢中国3月规模以上工业增加值同比增长7.7%，预期5.9%，1-2月累计增速为5.9%。 ➢中国3月社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.9%，预期4.4%，1-2月累计增速为4.0%。 ➢中国一季度固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长4.2%，预期增4.0%，1-2月累计增速为4.1%。 ➢中国3月全国城镇调查失业率为5.2%，前值为5.4%。 图表1：经济数据主要分项 | 较前值变化 | 单位： | 2025/3 | 2024/12 | 2024 ...

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-04-16 有色指数偏离修复模型效果点评 [证券分析师：刘晓锋 Table_Author] 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间策略总收益：4.03% 标的买入并持有收益：4.87% 总超额：-0.85% 最大回撤：60.42 % 最长回撤时间：3448 交易日 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Title] [Table_Summary] 融 工 程 点 评 ◼ 设计原理：模型假定标的价格走势相对参考标的存在反复的偏离-回归循环， 且偏离程度是存在极限的，但并不要求单次偏离-回归的时间周期存在明显的 规律性，即单纯的空间型策略。此外，已有样本区间已经包含多个完整的偏 离回归过程，则通过对已有数据的统计和测试，可以找到一个相对合理的阈 值，当 ...

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 电子指数偏离修复模型效果点评 [证券分析师：刘晓锋 Table_Author] 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 模型概述 计算区间内申万一级电子指数收盘价相对沪深 300 指数的值 cl。 计算 cl 在区间内的回撤序列 W。 计算 W 中单次回撤期间的最大值。 对于所有单次回撤最大幅度，做降序排列，得到序列 S，对 S 求和，得 到 T。 对 S 做逐步累加，当累加和达到或超过 T 的 80%时，停止累加，将 S 中 并未参与累加的值去除，则 S 保留下来的数值序列为 S1. 结果评估： 区间策略总收益：249.59% 标的买入并持有收益：186.78% 总超额：62.81% 最大回撤：26.52% 最长回撤时间：411 交易日 [Table_Message]2025-04-16 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 ...

- The report introduces an **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model** to track the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis. The model identifies industries with high crowding levels (e.g., Beauty Care, Retail, Agriculture) and low crowding levels (e.g., Communication, Real Estate, Construction). It also highlights significant daily changes in crowding levels for industries like Electronics, Media, and Light Manufacturing[4]. - A **Z-score Premium Model** is constructed to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model uses rolling calculations to identify ETFs with significant deviations from their intrinsic value, while also warning of potential pullback risks[5]. - The **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model** evaluates crowding levels based on the flow of main funds. For example, in the previous trading day, main funds flowed into Media, Beauty Care, and Banks, while flowing out of Electronics, Computers, and Retail. Over the past three trading days, main funds increased allocations to Automobiles, Banks, and Utilities, while reducing allocations to Computers, Retail, and Agriculture[4]. - The **Z-score Premium Model** identifies ETFs with significant premium or discount levels. For instance, ETFs like the CSI 300 ETF (Huaxia) and the CSI 300 ETF showed net inflows of 27.27 billion yuan and 15.15 billion yuan, respectively, while ETFs like the CSI A500 ETF and the ChiNext ETF experienced net outflows of 3.52 billion yuan and 3.17 billion yuan, respectively[6][7]. - The **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model** provides actionable insights by ranking industries based on crowding levels and fund flows. For example, industries like Media and Beauty Care are highlighted for their high crowding levels, while Communication and Real Estate are noted for their low levels. This information can guide investors in identifying potential opportunities or risks[4][10]. - The **Z-score Premium Model** is evaluated based on its ability to identify ETFs with significant deviations from their intrinsic value. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through its identification of ETFs with notable premium or discount levels, providing potential arbitrage opportunities for investors[5][6]. - The **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model** and the **Z-score Premium Model** are both tested using historical data. For example, the Industry Crowding Monitoring Model tracks fund flows over the past three trading days, while the Z-score Premium Model identifies ETFs with significant premium or discount levels based on rolling calculations[4][5][6].

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/4/15 3月贸易数据点评—— 出口为何大超预期？ 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、基数因素叠加抢出口效应，出口同比明显超出市场预计 2、量价及政策因素限制进口回升空间 图表1：贸易数据主要分项 ➢ 中国3月出口（以美元计价，下同）同比增长12.4%，市场预期增长3.5%，1-2月增长2.3%。 ➢ 中国3月进口同比下降4.3%，市场预期下降4.3%，1-2月下降8.4%。 ➢ 中国3月贸易顺差1026.4亿美元，市场预期783.0亿美元，1-2月为1705.2亿美元。 1、基数因素叠加抢出口效应，出口同比明显超出市场预计 ➢出口增势大超预期。3月出口（以美元计价）同比增长2.3%，较今年1-2月增速大幅上行10.1个百分点，也显著超出 市场一致预期。如何理解本月出口同比的明显反弹？我们认为有去年同期基数走低、抢出口两方面因素的影响，两 者分别对应着春节错位以及规避对等关税加征风险的逻辑。一则去年春 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司点评 买入/维持 长安汽车(000625) 目标价: 昨收盘:12.58 汽车央企航母打造世界级汽车集团 证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010002 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 99.14/82.61 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 1,247.19/1,03 | | | 9.2 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 18.09/11.32 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<长安汽车：华为车 BU，自主新引 望>>--2024-09-04 事件：公司发布 2024 年报，营业总收入 1597.33 亿元，同比+5.58%； 归母净利润 73.21 亿元，同比-35.37%；扣非净利润 25.87 亿元，同比- 31.59%。2025 年第一季度，公司归属于上市公司股东 ...

[Table_Title] 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-04-15 基础化工指数偏离修复模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 计算区间内申万一级基础化工指数收盘价相对沪深 300 指数的值 cl。 计算 cl 在区间内的回撤序列 W。 结果评估： 区间策略总收益：58.12% 标的买入并持有收益：-0.92% 总超额：59.04% 最大回撤：21.35% 最长回撤时间：504 交易日 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 [Table_Summary] 报 告 ◼ 设计原理：模型假定标的价格走势相对参考标的存在反复的偏离-回归循环， 且偏离程度是存在极限的，但并不要求单次偏离-回归的时间周期存在明显的 规律性，即单纯的空间型策略。此外，已有样本区间已 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of land reserve special bonds is expected to provide financial support for local governments to acquire and recycle land, improve the financial situation of real - estate enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market from the land side [72]. - More regions are expected to follow the practices of provinces that have issued special bonds, and the issuance speed of land reserve special bonds is likely to accelerate. However, the policy effects need further observation due to issues such as mortgage - debt relationships and acquisition pricing [3][72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Local Government Special Bond Investment Areas Have Expanded - Local government bonds are classified into general bonds and special bonds based on repayment sources. In 2024, local government special bonds totaled 7.7 trillion yuan in issuance, with 4.0 trillion yuan in new special bonds and 3.7 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds. By the end of 2024, the balance of special bonds was 30.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 65% of local government debt [12]. - The investment areas of special bonds have expanded. In 2025, four new investment areas were added, including supporting the acquisition of existing commercial housing, revitalizing idle land, developing infrastructure for emerging strategic industries, and renovating old urban areas [15]. - From 2019 - 2024, the areas with relatively high investment of new special bonds were municipal and industrial park infrastructure, shantytown renovation, and healthcare, with scale proportions of 27.4%, 13.4%, and 7.2% respectively [15]. 3.2 Historical Review of Land Reserve Special Bonds - Before 2016, land reserve institutions could borrow land reserve loans from banks. In 2016, borrowing land reserve loans from banks was suspended, and land reserve funds were raised through channels such as local government special bonds, state - owned land revenue funds, and land transfer revenues [24][26]. - Land reserve special bonds were officially launched in 2017 and suspended in September 2019. From July 2017 to September 2019, a total of 426 land reserve special bonds were issued, with a total amount of 1491.4 billion yuan [30][31]. 3.3 Relevant Policies and Background for the New Round of Resuming Land Reserve Special Bonds - Since 2024, central meetings have introduced policies to support the revitalization of idle land. In October 2024, the Ministry of Finance allowed special bonds to be used for land reserve [35]. - In November 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice providing specific guidance on using special bond funds to acquire idle land, aiming to reduce the scale of idle land, improve the land supply - demand relationship, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [36]. - In March 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a new regulation on land reserve special bonds, clarifying requirements for bond issuance and fund use [37]. 3.4 Progress of Local Plans to Use Special Bonds to Acquire Idle Land - As of April 10, according to incomplete statistics from the China Index Academy, 848 parcels of idle land were planned to be acquired with special bonds, with a total area of over 40 million square meters and a total amount of 128.2 billion yuan. The pace of announcements has accelerated since March [46]. - Fourteen out of 31 provinces and municipalities have announced plans to use special bonds to acquire idle land. Guangdong Province leads with a planned acquisition amount close to 50 billion yuan [47]. - Among the announced parcels, residential land accounts for 63.5%, commercial and office land for 25.8%, and industrial land for 7.3%. Most of the acquired land was transferred between 2020 - 2024 [52]. 3.5 Issuance of Land Reserve Special Bonds for Acquiring Idle Land - As of April 10, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Hunan have issued special bonds for acquiring idle land, with a total amount of approximately 40.2 billion yuan, covering 166 projects [3][54]. - Since February, Beijing has issued special bonds involving 25 land reserve projects, with a total issuance of 11.687 billion yuan, mainly for primary land development [60]. - In March, Sichuan issued special bonds involving 3 land reserve projects, with 330 million yuan used to acquire 2 parcels of idle land in Chengdu and Yibin [68]. - In April, Hunan issued land reserve special bonds worth 9.415 billion yuan, accounting for 41.5% of the provincial special bond funds for project construction [71]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - The resumption of land reserve special bonds can support local governments in land acquisition and recycling, improve the financial situation of real - estate enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [72]. - More regions are expected to follow the practices of provinces that have issued special bonds, and the issuance speed of land reserve special bonds is likely to accelerate. However, the policy effects need further observation, and it is recommended to pay attention to relevant local state - owned enterprises and developers [3][72].

萤石网络(688475) 目标价: 昨收盘:36.40 萤石网络：2025Q1 业绩双位数增长修复，智能入户与智能服务机 器人表现亮眼 ◼ 走势比较 2025 年 04 月 14 日 公司点评 买入/维持 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 7.88/4.09 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 286.65/149.06 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 58.11/24.18 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<萤石网络：2024Q3 收入双位数增 长，实控人增持信心充足>>--2024- 10-29 <<萤石网络：视觉能力构筑硬件优 势，AI 技术驱动云平台成长>>-- 2024-10-15 <<萤石网络：2024Q2 盈利能力短期承 压，智能入户业务实现高增>>-- 2024-08-11 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 证券分析 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 46.00, compared to the last closing price of 35.82 [1]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 1.534 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.85%, and a net profit of 255 million, up 54.64% [4][5]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to enhance employee motivation, granting 2.5 million restricted shares, which is 2.31% of the total share capital [6]. - The company anticipates revenue growth for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of 1.671 billion, 1.803 billion, and 1.993 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 271 million, 300 million, and 337 million [7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 32.19% in 2024, an increase of 9.04 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-throughput heat exchanger sales and increased export revenue [5]. - The company reported a significant increase in sales orders, totaling 1.541 billion, a year-on-year growth of 3.74%, with a backlog of 1.719 billion at the end of 2024 [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.47, 2.72, and 3.07 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18.62, 14.51, and 13.15 [7].