Market Performance - A-shares showed a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.15% to 3373.75 points[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.41% at 23578.8 points, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 0.29%[1] - The US Dow Jones fell by 0.37%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.33% and 0.53%, respectively[1] Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth for Q4 was revised up to an annualized rate of 2.4%, compared to a previous estimate of 2.3%[8] - The core PCE price index for Q4 was adjusted down to 2.6%[8] - Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, was revised down to a growth rate of 4%[8] International Relations - The US is seeking to control major infrastructure and natural resource investments in Ukraine, aiming to exclude European influence[8] - High-level trade officials from South Korea, Japan, and China are set to meet to discuss economic cooperation in response to US trade pressures[8]

Market Overview - The US announced a 25% tariff on all non-American manufactured cars, effective April 2, which is expected to generate an additional $100 billion in annual revenue for the US government[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04% to 3368.7 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.26%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.6% at 23483.32 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.01% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.44%[1] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.12% to 5712.2 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.31%[1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 2.04%[1] - The European stock indices showed mixed results, with some indices closing higher and others lower[1] Trade Relations - Trump indicated a willingness to consider lowering tariffs on China in exchange for support in the sale of TikTok's US operations to an American company[11] - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy to encourage other countries to reduce trade barriers and address the US trade deficit[11] Economic Stimulus - Chinese central bank advisor Huang Yiping stated that if economic growth loses momentum, the government is prepared to deploy more stimulus measures[11] - The Chinese economy has shown a good start this year, with a focus on structural reforms and boosting consumer and business confidence[11] Carbon Market Expansion - China announced an expansion of its national carbon emissions trading market to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, potentially adding 1500 key emission units and covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions[11]

2025年3月25日星期二 ➢ 特朗普暗示减免对等关税；MLF操作调 整。A股顽强，尾盘翻红。上证指数收 盘涨0.15%报3370.03点，深证成指涨 0.07%，创业板指涨0.01%。旅游酒店热 度高，大金融走强。港股震荡，A股收 盘后港股急涨。恒生指数收盘涨0.91%报 23905.56点，恒生科技指数涨1.72%，恒 生中国企业指数涨1.24%。半导体反弹， 航海系走强，有色行业活跃。大市成交 2331.08亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三大 股指收盘小幅下跌。美国三大股指全线 收涨，道指涨1.42%，标普500指数涨 1.76%报5767.57点，纳指涨2.27%。特朗 普计划几天内公布汽车关税，并暗示下 周不少国家将获得对等关税减免。中国 央行称本月起MLF采用多重价位中标方 式，周二将开展4500亿元操作。 资料来源：彭博 | 23905.56 | 0.91 | 19.17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8850.69 | 1.24 | 21.41 | | 5736.83 | 1.72 | 28.40 | | 129.64 | -0.70 | -9.34 | | 3370.03 | 0. ...

2025年3月20日星期四 ➢ 鲍威尔安抚关税担忧；腾讯营收大增。 A股反弹乏力，午后走低，上证指数 收盘跌0.1%报3426.43点，深证成指跌 0.32%，创业板指跌0.28%。电力行业 爆发，贵金属强势，银行业全行业上 涨。港股偏强震荡。恒生指数收盘涨 0.12%报24771.14点，恒生科技指数跌 1.05%，恒生中国企业指数跌0.15%。 医疗保健行业涨幅居前，保险股继续 向好。大市成交2718.59亿港元。外盘 方面，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一。 美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.92%， 标普500指数涨1.08%报5675.29点，纳 指涨1.41%。鲍威尔预测关税对通胀影 响不会持久，金融市场如释重负。腾 讯营收创一年来最快增长，计划加快 AI投资。 资料来源：彭博 | 24771.14 | 0.12 | 23.49 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9163.67 | -0.15 | 25.70 | | 6041.19 | -1.05 | 35.21 | | 128.68 | 0.13 | -10.01 | | 3426.43 | -0.10 | 2.23 | | 10979.0 ...

2025年3月19日星期三 ➢ 普京拒绝全面停火；小米营收增长强 劲。A股整固，上证指数横盘震荡收 涨0.11%报3429.76点，深证成指弱势 震荡收涨0.52%，创业板指涨0.61%。 比亚迪带动高压快充概念股掀涨停潮， 创新药、黄金行业走强。港股高开日 内维持强势。恒生指数收盘涨2.46%报 24740.57点，恒生科技指数涨3.96%， 恒生中国企业指数涨2.79%。贵金属维 持强势，零售、汽车、医疗保健、保 险等多行业领涨。大市成交2859.352 亿港元。外盘方面，欧洲三大股指收 盘全线上涨。美国三大股指全线收跌， 道指跌0.62%，标普500指数跌1.07%报 5614.66点，纳指跌1.71%。普京回绝 全面停火建议，仅同意限制对乌克兰 能源设施的攻击。小米营收强劲增长， 关注腾讯周三公布业绩。 | 24740.57 | 2.46 | 23.33 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9177.80 | 2.79 | 25.90 | | 6105.50 | 3.96 | 36.65 | | 128.51 | -1.63 | -10.13 | | 3429.76 | 0.11 | 2. ...

2025年3月18日星期二 ➢ 经合组织(OECD)下调对大多数成员国 的经济展望，预计今年全球经济增速将 放缓至3.1%，美国明年GDP增速降至 1.6%。美国2月份零售销售表现不及预 期，1月份数据被下修，加剧外界对消 费支出的担忧。 ➢ 据悉美国贸易代表试图为下个月将实施 的全面新关税注入秩序，部分关税有可 能不会在4月初生效，需要等待贸易代 表办公室或商务部进行可能持续数月的 调查。 资料来源：彭博 ➢ 比亚迪发布最新闪充技术，5分钟充电 可续航约400公里，远远超过特斯拉， 几乎与普通汽车加油一样快。 2025年3月18日星期二 | 2561 | 维升药业－Ｂ | 18/03/2025 | 21/03/2025 | HKD | 75.28 | 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2610 | 南山铝业国际 | 20/03/2025 | 25/03/2025 | HKD | 31.50 | 100 | | 6693 | 赤峰黄金 | 2025-03-10 | 13.72 | 9.53x | 28.00 | 13.72 | 14.00 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.41% at 3379.83 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.33% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.19%[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 0.01% to 23782.14 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.39% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.35%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 3070.34 million HKD[1] Economic Policies - The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, with no exemptions for trade partners[3] - Ukraine is prepared to accept a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, contingent on military aid and intelligence sharing[3][8] Corporate Developments - Avatr Technology, a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to raise 7.8 billion HKD through a Hong Kong IPO, with a potential launch in May[4] - China National Railway plans to issue 30 billion RMB in bonds, which was oversubscribed by 0.68 times[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%[11] - China's PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2% in February, while CPI fell by 0.7%[11] Market Sentiment - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers indicated a nearly 50% chance of a recession in the U.S. this year due to various policy measures undermining confidence[8]

2025年2月18日星期二 ➢ 澳央行决策；欧盟拟增加防务开支。A股 窄幅震荡，尾盘走高。大盘多行业上涨， 腾讯云概念；教育、房地产服务行业涨幅 居前。上证指数收涨0.27%报3355.83点， 深证成指涨0.39%，创业板指涨0.51%。港 股宽幅震荡。香港恒生指数收跌0.02%报 22616.23点，恒生科技指数跌0.49%，恒生 中国企业指数跌0.09%。科技、电讯、半导 体、医疗保健行业涨幅居前。大市成交 4002.368亿港元。外盘方面，美股因总统 日假期休市一日，欧洲三大股指收盘全线 上涨。澳大利亚央行料开启降息，决策者 仍将警惕贸易战风险。美俄周二利雅得会 谈令欧盟压力陡增，据悉欧盟讨论增加防 务开支，或考虑发行联合债券。 资料来源：彭博 XIN YONGAN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED 12/F & 25/F, CMA Building, 64-66 Connaught Road Central, Hong Kong | 22616.23 | -0.02 | | 12.74 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 832 ...

2025年2月6日星期四 ➢ 美国服务业放缓；美邮政接收中港包裹。 A股蛇年首个交易日承压，上证指数单 边下挫，深证成指弱势震荡。软件开发 股涨幅居前；贵金属强势。港股宽幅震 荡。恒生指数收盘跌0.93%报20597.09点， 恒生科技指数跌0.95%，恒生国企指数跌 1.01%。科技咨讯、油气及贵金属行业涨 幅居前。大市成交1922.11亿港元。外盘 方面，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一。美 国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.71%，标 普500指数涨0.39%报6061.48点，纳指涨 0.19%。美国服务业增长放缓。美国邮政 服务称将继续接收来自中国内地和香港 的包裹。 资料来源：彭博 XIN YONGAN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED 12/F & 25/F, CMA Building, 64-66 Connaught Road Central, Hong Kong | 20597.09 | -0.93 | | 2.68 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7566.27 | -1.01 | | 3.79 | | 4930.20 | - ...

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth for 2024 has been revised down from 2.1% to 2.0%[9] - The unemployment rate for 2024 is projected to increase from 4.0% to 4.4%[9] - PCE inflation for 2024 is adjusted down from 2.6% to 2.3%[9] Market Trends - In December, US retail sales increased by 0.4%, below the expected 0.6%[12] - The December non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 165,000[17] - The December CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[18] Asset Performance - The performance of major asset classes in Q4 2024 shows equities down by 10.49% and commodities down by 15.04%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to be around 4.4% in 2024[10] Currency Analysis - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index was at 98.36, reflecting a 3.04% change[22] - The USD to offshore RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate, impacting trade dynamics[32] Monetary Policy - The Federal funds rate is expected to be at 4.375% in 2024, with four rate cuts anticipated[9] - By the end of 2025, the rate is projected to drop below 3.5%[9]