2025年2月6日星期四 ➢ 美国服务业放缓；美邮政接收中港包裹。 A股蛇年首个交易日承压，上证指数单 边下挫，深证成指弱势震荡。软件开发 股涨幅居前；贵金属强势。港股宽幅震 荡。恒生指数收盘跌0.93%报20597.09点， 恒生科技指数跌0.95%，恒生国企指数跌 1.01%。科技咨讯、油气及贵金属行业涨 幅居前。大市成交1922.11亿港元。外盘 方面，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一。美 国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.71%，标 普500指数涨0.39%报6061.48点，纳指涨 0.19%。美国服务业增长放缓。美国邮政 服务称将继续接收来自中国内地和香港 的包裹。 资料来源：彭博 XIN YONGAN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED 12/F & 25/F, CMA Building, 64-66 Connaught Road Central, Hong Kong | 20597.09 | -0.93 | | 2.68 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7566.27 | -1.01 | | 3.79 | | 4930.20 | - ...

Economic Performance - The US GDP growth for 2024 has been revised down from 2.1% to 2.0%[9] - The unemployment rate for 2024 is projected to increase from 4.0% to 4.4%[9] - PCE inflation for 2024 is adjusted down from 2.6% to 2.3%[9] Market Trends - In December, US retail sales increased by 0.4%, below the expected 0.6%[12] - The December non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 165,000[17] - The December CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[18] Asset Performance - The performance of major asset classes in Q4 2024 shows equities down by 10.49% and commodities down by 15.04%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to be around 4.4% in 2024[10] Currency Analysis - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index was at 98.36, reflecting a 3.04% change[22] - The USD to offshore RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate, impacting trade dynamics[32] Monetary Policy - The Federal funds rate is expected to be at 4.375% in 2024, with four rate cuts anticipated[9] - By the end of 2025, the rate is projected to drop below 3.5%[9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that Trump won the 2024 presidential election, with the Republican Party controlling both the Senate and the House, which is expected to facilitate the implementation of his policy agenda [4][5] - Key policies proposed by Trump include significant tax cuts, increased trade tariffs, stricter immigration policies, and a push for domestic fossil fuel production [5][6] - The anticipated impact of these policies on the U.S. economy includes an increase in U.S. debt issuance, potential inflationary pressures, and significant labor market disruptions due to immigration policies [6] Group 2 - The analysis of Trump's first term suggests that the performance of major U.S. assets during the "majority government period" (2016-2018) is crucial for predicting future asset trends [10] - During the majority government period, the U.S. economy experienced a peak in growth, with GDP growth reaching 2.51%, which was not significantly higher than the 2.44% average during Obama's second term [12] - The report highlights that the stock market saw substantial gains, with the S&P 500 index increasing by 19.42% in 2017, driven by strong performances in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors [18] Group 3 - In the minority government period (2019), economic activity slowed, and the stock market rebounded with the S&P 500 index increasing by 28.88%, led by the technology sector [26] - The report notes that the energy sector faced significant declines, while the healthcare sector showed resilience during this period [26] - The analysis of the stock market performance indicates a "stronger gets stronger" trend, particularly in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors [26] Group 4 - The report discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, noting that the stock market remained bullish with a 16.26% increase in the S&P 500 index in 2020, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic [34] - The technology sector continued to outperform, while the energy sector faced significant declines [34] - The report emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policies during the pandemic significantly influenced market dynamics, leading to increased liquidity and stock price appreciation [34] Group 5 - The report concludes that Trump's policies are likely to continue influencing the economy and capital markets, with potential implications for various sectors, including consumer discretionary, financials, and healthcare [40][43] - The analysis suggests that the consumer discretionary sector may continue its strong performance, while financial institutions could benefit from increased lending in a lower interest rate environment [43] - The report recommends specific stocks within the consumer discretionary and financial sectors, highlighting companies like Amazon and Bank of America as potential investment opportunities [44]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 20,079.10, down 1.02% with a trading volume of HKD 191.3 billion[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.05% to 3,169.38 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index decreased by 0.74% and 0.32% respectively[2] - European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, with a current deposit rate of 3.25%[9] Economic Data - China's GDP growth for Q3 is expected to be 4.5%, the lowest since March 2023, with a year-to-date growth rate of 4.9%[3][10] - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 19,000 to 241,000, contrary to expectations of 259,000[9] Sector Performance - Software development, electronic components, and consumer electronics sectors showed positive performance in the A-share market[2] - The construction materials, software, and nuclear power sectors led gains in the Hong Kong market[2] Investment Recommendations - Suggested support level for the Hang Seng Index is 19,917, with resistance at 20,660; investors are advised to focus on opportunities in the metals and semiconductor sectors[2] Company News - SF Holding plans to raise approximately HKD 156 billion (USD 20 billion) through its upcoming listing in Hong Kong[11] - HSBC repurchased 1.4864 million shares at an average price of HKD 68.0025, totaling approximately HKD 101 million[12]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 19,924.58, up 4.16% on the day and 16.88% year-to-date[5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 7.27%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 4.75%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index gained 3.61%, closing at 3,000.95, with a year-to-date increase of 0.87%[5] Economic Indicators - Japan's ruling party election is expected to influence monetary policy, with candidates showing varying stances on interest rates[3] - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, the lowest in four months, indicating a resilient labor market despite hiring slowdowns[9] - China's Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized fiscal support and measures to stabilize the real estate market, including potential interest rate cuts[10] Investment Opportunities - Southbound capital inflow reached HKD 5.993 billion, indicating strong investor interest in Hong Kong stocks[2] - Analysts recommend focusing on consumer and healthcare sectors for investment opportunities following recent market rallies[2] Corporate News - GIC increased its stake in Zijin Mining by acquiring 4 million H-shares for approximately HKD 63.93 million[12] - Capital Group reduced its holdings in New Oriental Energy by selling 964,000 shares for about HKD 510 million[13]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|---------------|-------|---------------| | \n指数 | \n收盘价 | 单日 | 涨跌 % \n年内 | | | 82.10 0.85 | | 15.11 | | | 2379.70 0.50 | | 11.78 | | | 9905.00 0.36 | | 15.73 | | | 2483.50 -0.52 | | 4.17 | | | 1067.00 -1.19 | | -14.21 | | | 407.25 -0.31 | | -18.77 | | | 105.05 -0.08 | | 3.56 | | | 7.29 0.05 | | -2.25 | | | 1.09 0.11 | | -2.61 | | | 62.45 -0.30 | | -15.08 | 美股异常平静期面临考验，华尔街知名团队警告股市或大幅震荡：花旗集团美国股票交易策略主管Stuart Kaiser表示，根据周四平价跨式期权的价格，期权市场押注当天公布CPI数据之后标普500指数可能上涨或 者下跌0.8%。如果真的发生 ...

2024年7月10日星期三 国际要闻摘要： 中国周三将公布6月份通胀数据，预计CPI同比 升幅略微加快至0.4%，PPI料连续第21个月下跌， 但降幅有所收窄。 恒生指数一年走势 资料来源：彭博 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------|---------------------|-------| | 指数 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | % | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | | | 17523.23 0.00 2.79 | | | | | 6275.64 -0.14 8.79 | | | | | 3600.90 0.96 -4.34 | | | | | 146.00 0.92 -0.43 | | | | | 2959.37 1.26 -0.52 | | | | | 8705.94 1.68 -8.60 | | | | | 3439.81 1.12 0.25 | | | | | 39291.97 -0.13 4.25 | | | | | 18429.29 ...

2024年7月4日星期四 港股盘前分析： 美经济数据振降息预期；国债借入操作新动向。A 股持续下调。上证指数跌0.49%报2982.38点，深 证成指跌0.59%，创业板指跌0.29%。零售消费类、 房地产板块涨幅居前。北向资金净卖出14.03亿元。 港股高开高走 。 香 港 恒 生 指 数 收 涨 1.18% 报 17978.57点，恒生科技指数涨2.48%，国企指数涨 1.27%。科技板块涨幅居前，文旅消费走高。南向 资金净买入额为36.43亿港元。欧洲三大股指收盘 全线上涨。美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌 0.06%，标普500指数涨0.51%报5537.02点，纳指 涨0.88%。美国服务业等经济数据疲软，增强市场 降息预期。中国央行据悉已就国债借入事宜与两 家国有大行达成意向。操作方面，恒指支持位 17847，阻力位18285，谨慎关注贵金属、汽车投 资机会。 中国央行据悉就国债借入事宜与工商银行和邮政 储蓄银行达成意向，以期为过热的债券市场降温。 中国工信部确定北京、上海、深圳等20个城市为 智能网联汽车"车路云一体化"应用试点城市。 资料来源：彭博 新永安国际研究部分析师 李汉良 Frank ...

2024年6月27日星期四 日元创38年新低；北京松绑楼市政策。A股尾盘 拉升。上证指数涨0.76%报2972.53点，深证成 指涨1.55%，创业板指涨1.8%。AI概念领涨，多 板块受带动；仅贵金属行业逆市下跌。北向资 金净卖出19.82亿元。港股走强。恒生指数收涨 0.09%报18089.93点，恒生科技指数涨0.94%， 恒生国企指数涨0.2%。电器板块及半导体涨幅 居前。南向资金净买入38.09亿港元。欧洲三大 股指收盘小幅下跌。美国三大股指小幅收涨， 道指涨0.04%，标普500指数涨0.16%报5477.9点， 纳指涨0.49%。日元兑美元创38年来新低，日本 当局表示高度关注日元汇率。北京市放宽购房 首付和房贷要求。操作方面，恒指支持位17789， 阻力位18332，谨慎关注医疗、地产反弹机会。 北京市放宽购房首付、房贷要求，以及多子女 家庭的购房规定，至此包括上海、深圳在内的 中国四大一线城市目前都已跟进优化楼市政策。 恒生指数一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------|-------|--------| | 指数 | 收盘 ...

港股盘前分析： 国际要闻摘要： 中国央行行长潘功胜周三就央行可能开始在二 级市场交易国债给出了迄今最明确信号，同时 还暗示利率改革临近，称未来可考虑明确以央 行的某个短期操作利率为主要政策利率。潘功 胜的讲话预示中国央行货币政策工具或迎十年 来最大改革。 资料来源：彭博 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------|---------------------------|---------------|-------|-----------|----------| | | 即将上市新股 \n代号 公司名称 截止认购日 | （以上市日期正序排序） \n | 上市日期 货币 | | 发售价 | 每手股数 | | 2479 | 天聚地合 | 2024/06/25 | 2024/06/28 | HKD | 83.33 | 50 | | | | | | | | | | 2559 | 嘀嗒出行 | 2024/06/25 | 2024/06/28 | HKD | 5.00-7.00 ...