2025 年政府工作报告推进双碳进程，中石油中石化合同气定价政策发布 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 8 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CI ...

谨慎乐观看待煤价，逢低布局静待拐点 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 3 月 9 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 左前明：能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 谨慎乐观看待煤价，逢低布局静待拐点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 9 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 ◆ 动力煤 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently in a comfortable bottom configuration zone, with expectations of stronger supply-side reforms [3][6] - Despite facing supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to supportive factors such as real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and high steel exports [7] - The industry is anticipated to experience structural improvements in supply, benefiting from policies aimed at eliminating inefficient production capacity and enhancing high-end production supply [6][7] Supply - As of March 7, the average daily pig iron output was 2.3051 million tons, an increase of 2.57 thousand tons week-on-week [18] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86.5%, up by 0.96 percentage points week-on-week [18] - The total output of five major steel products was 7.303 million tons, a decrease of 53.4 thousand tons week-on-week [18][19] Demand - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.531 million tons, an increase of 258.3 thousand tons week-on-week [24] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 101 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.46 thousand tons week-on-week [24] - The net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.6902 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.83% [24] Inventory - The social inventory of five major steel products was 13.395 million tons, a decrease of 22.1 thousand tons week-on-week [32] - The internal inventory of five major steel products was 5.208 million tons, a decrease of 166.2 thousand tons week-on-week [32] Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,565.4 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 25.85 yuan/ton [41] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,736.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 33.78 yuan/ton [41] - The profit per ton for rebar using electric arc furnace was -241.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan/ton week-on-week [47] Company Valuation - Notable companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shandong Steel, which are expected to benefit from structural investment opportunities due to their advanced equipment and environmental standards [7][61]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 2025 年政府工作报告推进双碳进程，中石油中石 化合同气定价政策发布 2025 年 3 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a solid performance with a total revenue of 13.074 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 854 million yuan, up 42.6% year-on-year [1] - The revenue for the second half of 2024 was 4.370 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, with a net profit of 210 million yuan, which is a 48.4% increase year-on-year [1] - The company improved its profitability significantly through product and channel optimization and pricing strategy adjustments, achieving an annual gross margin of 10.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - **Tobacco Leaf Imports**: Total revenue was 8.254 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The volume and average price changed by -4.5% and +7.0% respectively [2] - **Tobacco Leaf Exports**: Revenue reached 2.062 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +18.4% and +5.4% respectively [2] - **Cigarette Exports**: Revenue was 1.574 billion yuan, a 30.2% increase year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +19.1% and +9.3% respectively [2] - **New Tobacco Products Exports**: Revenue was 135 million yuan, up 4.0% year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of +12.5% and -7.6% respectively [3] - **Brazil Operations**: Revenue was 1.050 billion yuan, a 37.0% increase year-on-year, with volume and average price changes of -2.4% and +40.3% respectively [3] 2025 Outlook - The company expects to continue improving profitability and maintain a stable increase in per-share dividends [4] - It aims to focus on both organic and external growth, enhancing its capital operation platform [4] - The company plans to dynamically assess international conditions to ensure a stable supply of high-quality tobacco leaves and cultivate growth in emerging markets [4] - Continued focus on cigarette brand development and optimization of product and brand matrix is anticipated, along with an expansion of the cigar business and tax markets [4] - The company is positioned as the exclusive operational entity for international business expansion and related trade, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 970 million yuan, 1.122 billion yuan, and 1.222 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5X, 16.9X, and 15.5X [5] - Key financial indicators for 2024A include total revenue of 13.074 billion yuan, net profit of 854 million yuan, and an EPS of 1.23 yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in the issuance of wealth management products, with a total of 4,575 new products launched in February 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 51.04% [38] - The report notes a stable trend in the net value of wealth management products, with a slight increase in the number of products that did not meet performance benchmarks [31][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on national banks with solid fundamentals and low valuations, particularly in the context of state-owned enterprise reforms [8] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Overview - As of the end of February 2025, the overall market's broken net rate was 4.16%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points month-on-month [12] - The closed-end product benchmark rate was 85.21%, while the open-end product benchmark rate was 46.54% [15][16] Net Value Wealth Management Products - The number of existing net value products decreased to 19,300, a month-on-month decline of 1.00% [25] - The proportion of products with negative net value growth in February was 13.90% [31] Issuance Market Situation - The issuance of non-principal guaranteed products has significantly increased, with no principal guaranteed products issued in February 2025 [40] - The largest share of new products issued in February 2025 was for terms of 12-24 months, accounting for 25.03% of the total [43] Wealth Management Returns - The expected annualized returns for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year wealth management products were 2.25%, 2.43%, and 3.05%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous week [5] Wealth Management Company Product Overview - As of the end of February 2025, the total number of existing products from 31 wealth management companies was 71,382, with Xingyin Wealth Management leading at 9.52% market share [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - AI shooting glasses have reached a mature product form, and an industrial transformation is expected to occur. The focus will shift towards model capability upgrades, optimization of hardware and software performance, and deepening collaboration among industry leaders. The sales figures are largely based on assumptions, and marginal changes are key. It is crucial to gain recognition from the government, industry, and consumers [3] - The penetration rate of smart glasses in vertical scenarios such as meetings, assistance for visually impaired individuals, cycling, skiing, tourism, and live streaming is expected to increase sharply. These scenarios allow smart glasses to leverage their advantages in first-person perspective shooting, voice interaction, and intelligent recognition, with users showing strong willingness and ability to pay [3] - Smart glasses are transitioning from a basic hardware accumulation phase to a direction focused on intelligent assistance and smart assistant capabilities, potentially becoming intelligent collaboration and computing terminals. Continuous product iterations from major tech companies and advancements in waveguide technology may lead to faster-than-expected growth in AI glasses [3] - Future opportunities should be closely monitored in companies with strong lens customization capabilities, partnerships with major clients, and ongoing technological iterations, such as 康耐特光学, 英派斯, 明月镜片, and 博士眼镜 [3] Summary by Sections - **AI Shooting Glasses**: The product path is maturing, with key developments expected in model capabilities and industry collaborations. Recent partnerships and government initiatives are enhancing visibility and acceptance among consumers [3] - **Vertical Scenarios**: Smart glasses are likely to see steep penetration increases in specific applications due to their unique capabilities and user willingness to invest [3] - **Future Development**: The industry is moving towards more intelligent applications, with significant contributions from both domestic and international tech giants [3] - **Key Companies to Watch**: Companies with strong customization and collaboration capabilities are highlighted as potential leaders in the smart glasses market [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the brand strength enhancement path of the company from the perspective of shopping centers, highlighting the need for high-growth and high-end brands to support sales in luxury shopping environments, especially as luxury consumption weakens [7][13]. - The company has demonstrated significant sales growth despite a general decline in luxury consumption in China, with average store revenue doubling year-on-year in 2023 and the first half of 2024 [7][55]. - The company focuses on prime locations and favorable business conditions for store openings, with a total of 37 self-operated stores as of December 31, 2024, and plans to open 7 new stores in 2024 [7][17]. Summary by Sections Store Opening Strategy - The company emphasizes three core factors for store selection: city, business district, and store location, ensuring alignment with its high-end brand positioning [16][20]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company has expanded its presence to 15 cities, including all first-tier cities in mainland China and several new first-tier cities [17][23]. Market Performance - The report notes a general decline in luxury consumption in China, with major high-end shopping centers experiencing sales pressure, yet the company has managed to increase its sales significantly [9][40]. - The company's performance in key shopping centers has outpaced the overall market, indicating a strengthening brand position [7][55]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.473 billion, 3.044 billion, and 4.413 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 254%, 107%, and 45% [8][14]. - The report suggests that the company's current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is favorable compared to other luxury brands, indicating potential for valuation upgrades [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The report analyzes the brand power enhancement path of the company from the perspective of shopping centers, highlighting the need for high-growth and high-end brands to support sales in luxury shopping environments, especially as luxury consumption weakens [7][13] - The company is currently in a phase of accelerated brand power enhancement, with a focus on securing prime locations and favorable business conditions, which has improved its negotiating position with shopping centers [7][13] - The company has demonstrated strong sales growth despite a general decline in luxury consumption in China, with significant increases in average store revenue [7][13] Summary by Relevant Sections Store Selection Criteria - The company focuses on three core factors for store selection: city, shopping district, and store location, ensuring high-end positioning [16][17] - As of December 31, 2024, the company operates 37 self-operated stores across 15 cities, including all major first-tier cities in mainland China [17][20] Market Performance - The luxury goods market in China has faced challenges, with high-end commercial sales declining; however, the company has achieved significant sales growth, outperforming many competitors [7][9] - The average revenue per store has doubled year-on-year, indicating strong market positioning [7][9] Future Growth and Profitability - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.473 billion, 3.044 billion, and 4.413 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting substantial year-on-year growth [8][14] - The company’s current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to improve, with estimates of 64, 31, and 21 for the next three years, indicating potential for valuation upgrades [8][14] Brand Positioning - The company is positioned as a rare high-end gold brand, with a strong brand moat that is expected to yield performance growth significantly above industry averages [8][14] - The report suggests that the company should be valued using the metrics of major luxury goods groups rather than traditional jewelry brands, as it has unique brand assets and growth potential [8][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The total subsidy for consumer goods is set at 300 billion, with expectations for a significant release of demand in the housing market due to the high activity in second-hand housing transactions [3] - The report anticipates that the orders for the home furnishing sector in January and February will perform better than expected, with a stable performance during the subsidy gap [3] - The report suggests that the home furnishing sector is expected to see a steady recovery in 2025, driven by the implementation of the consumer goods subsidy policy [3] Summary by Sections Subsidy Impact - The government has allocated 300 billion for consumer goods, including 150 billion for the "old-for-new" program in 2024, which aligns with expectations [3] - The report highlights that the demand for home furnishings is expected to be stimulated significantly by the release of second-hand housing demand [3] Order Performance - For January and February, retail orders for soft furnishings are expected to remain flat or slightly increase, while custom orders may see a slight decline [3] - The report indicates that smart home products, particularly smart toilets, are experiencing strong demand due to high subsidy amounts [3] Market Outlook - The report expresses a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector in 2025, with expectations for a gradual recovery in orders as the "old-for-new" policy is implemented [3] - It notes that major brands such as Oppein, Sophia, and others are actively participating in the subsidy programs [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high renewal demand, such as Gujia Home, Xilinmen, and others, as well as those leading in the execution of the "old-for-new" policy [3]