Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The shock pattern of China's domestic bond market was broken by the escalation of trade frictions last week. After the introduction of the US's so - called "reciprocal tariffs", the global risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the yields of domestic bonds have declined significantly. The direction of interest rate decline has been re - established, and the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q2 has increased significantly [2][3][6]. - Although the final implementation of short - term tariffs remains to be observed and the market may fluctuate, in the next quarter, long - term interest rates may hit new lows. At present, it is recommended to pay more attention to the duration strategy and appropriately lengthen the duration of the portfolio [3][36]. Summary by Directory 1. US Reciprocal Tariff Rates Significantly Exceed Expectations, and the Overseas Market Enters a Risk - Aversion Mode - After Trump took office in January, the US imposed tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico on the grounds of "fentanyl" and immigration issues, and also imposed tariffs on specific products such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles. On February 13, Trump signed a memorandum to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. The market originally thought this would reduce the possibility of a significant increase in overall US tariffs [2][6][7]. - On April 2, the announced reciprocal tariffs first imposed a 10% tariff on all US imports. For economies with large trade deficits, additional differential tariffs were imposed. This greatly exceeded market expectations, bringing high uncertainty to the global economy, potentially pushing up US inflation in the short term and reducing economic growth, and thus increasing global risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - After the reciprocal tariffs were introduced, most economies said they would negotiate with the US. China announced a series of counter - measures on April 4, showing more preparedness for potential tariff risks and enhanced economic resilience. There is still room for negotiation between China and the US, and the final tariff rate is likely to be lower than the current level, but the impact on the fundamentals may exceed previous expectations [2]. 2. The Implementation of Tariffs is Expected to Accelerate the Relaxation of Aggregate Policies. Pay Attention to the Decline of the Central Level of Funding Rates - After the end of the cross - quarter period last week, the funding became looser, and on Thursday, the central bank's open - market operations turned to net injection, pushing DR007 below 1.7%, the lowest level since mid - January. The central bank may re - evaluate the economic and financial situation due to the escalation of global trade frictions, and the decline of the central level of funding rates may accelerate [18]. - Although the funding rate dropped below 1.7% on Thursday, the bank's rigid net financing scale declined, indicating that the central bank may not be ready to lower the central level of funding rates to 1.5% or lower. However, if there is greater pressure on the equity market or external demand, the time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may be advanced, and the central level of funding rates may decline further [21]. - The scale of 91 - day discounted Treasury bonds issued last week was lower than expected, leading to a downward revision of the forecast for the April Treasury bond issuance scale. It is expected that the central financial institution capital injection special Treasury bonds will be publicly issued, and the overall government bond issuance scale in April is expected to be about 2.23 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 86 billion yuan, a decrease of about 61 billion yuan compared with March [3][24][30]. 3. The Direction of Interest Rate Decline is Re - established, and the Rhythm and Magnitude Depend on the Central Bank's Follow - up Actions - Before the implementation of the tariff measures last week, it was believed that the bond market rally driven by the revision of fundamental expectations in the second quarter might repeat in 2025. After the escalation of trade frictions, the yields of bonds at all maturities declined significantly, and investors were concerned about the downward space of interest rates [35]. - If priced at a funding rate of 1.65% - 1.7%, the downward space for short - and medium - term interest rates may be limited. However, due to the increased uncertainty in the domestic fundamental environment, the central bank may be more inclined to reduce costs, and the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in Q2 has increased significantly. In the short term, long - term interest rates may be more certain, and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds also have strong allocation value [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the comprehensive market entry of renewable energy, marking a transition from the previous "guaranteed quantity and price" model to a market-driven pricing mechanism [3][9]. - The introduction of a "mechanism price" aims to ensure reasonable returns for existing projects while allowing new projects to participate in market pricing [9][10]. - The report anticipates a surge in renewable energy installations before the end of May 2025, driven by the unclear details of the mechanism price and the potential for increased investment enthusiasm in the long term [11][12]. Monthly Sector and Key Listed Company Performance - In March, the power and utilities sector rose by 1.9%, outperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.1% [14]. - Key companies in the power sector saw significant stock price increases, with Jiangsu Xinneng leading at 27.54% [17]. Monthly Power Demand Analysis - Total electricity consumption in January and February 2025 reached 15,564 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.30%, indicating a notable decline compared to December [20]. - The report notes a significant drop in electricity consumption in the secondary and tertiary industries, attributed to a warm winter affecting residential electricity use [22][28]. Monthly Power Supply Analysis - National power generation in January and February 2025 decreased by 1.30% year-on-year, with thermal power generation declining by 5.80% [46]. - Renewable energy sources showed varied performance, with solar power generation increasing by 27.40% and wind power by 10.40% [46]. Monthly Power Market Data - The average purchase price of electricity in April was 389.19 yuan/MWh, reflecting a decrease of 0.58% month-on-month and 4.69% year-on-year [46]. Investment Perspective - The report suggests that the power sector is poised for profit improvement and value reassessment following several rounds of supply-demand tensions [46]. - Companies that are likely to benefit include coal-electricity integrated firms and national coal-electricity leaders, as well as hydropower operators and equipment manufacturers [46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The chemical pharmaceutical sector has shown the highest growth among sub-sectors, driven by expectations around "centralized procurement optimization discussions" and the "Class B medical insurance catalog" [8] - The trade war environment is expected to enhance the market share of domestic blood products and high-end medical devices due to increased costs of foreign imports [8] - The report suggests a cautious approach for April, focusing on specific segments that may benefit from the trade war, such as domestic blood products and high-end medical devices [8] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's weekly return was 1.20%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.57%, ranking 3rd among 31 primary sub-indices [7] - The chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector had the highest weekly growth of 3.45%, while the medical services sector saw the largest decline of 2.12% [7][8] Industry Performance and Valuation - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's recent one-month return was 2.94%, with a relative return of 3.63% against the CSI 300, ranking 10th among 31 primary sub-indices [9][18] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 26.88 times, which is below the historical average of 30.99 times [14][15] Market Tracking - The chemical pharmaceutical sector has shown the largest growth over the past year, with a 16.51% increase, while the biological products sector has seen a decline of 11.36% [24][25] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in blood products due to supply and demand changes, particularly for domestic manufacturers [8] Focus on Individual Stocks - The report recommends focusing on specific companies in the blood products and high-end medical device sectors, such as Palin Bio, Tian Tan Bio, and Mindray Medical [8] - In the consumer healthcare sector, companies like Aier Eye Hospital and Yifeng Pharmacy are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of government stimulus policies [8] Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policy developments include the approval of new medical service pricing for brain-computer interface technologies, indicating a growing focus on innovative medical solutions [40] - The report notes significant recent approvals for various pharmaceutical products, including those from companies like Jingxin Pharmaceutical and Antu Bio [41]

市场不确定性加强， [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 3 日 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 红利与消费板块或相对占优 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W14） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W14)：市场不确定性加 强，红利与消费板块或相对占优 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 ...

特朗普关税政策引致不确定性升级，国产替代 或进一步推进 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [特朗普关税政策引发避险情绪升级，国产替代或进 Table_Title] 一步推进 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com | 图 1：申万电子二级指数年初以来涨跌幅 4 | | --- | | 图 2：美股年初以来涨跌幅 1 5 | | 图 3：美股 ...

[Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 出口链优选议价能力突出标的，加大稳健资产及新消费成长标的布局 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 本期内容提要: [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 造纸：纸浆 ummary] ]4 月报价延续上涨，纸企减量提价。Arauco 公布 2025 年 4 月报价，针叶银星/阔叶明星/本色金星分别为 825/630/690 美元（其 中阔叶环比+20 美元，其余持平），Q2 全球浆厂加速减产节奏，其中 RGR（Bracell、亚太森博中国、Toba Pulp Lestari）、南通王子、广西 太阳、芬宝（Kemi、Joutseno）、Ilim、阿尔派、 ...

红利与消费板块或相对占优 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W14） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 3 日 市场不确定性加强， 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W14)：市场不确定性加 强，红利与消费板块或相对占优 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 ...

关税对指数可能是一次性冲击 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | --- | | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [关税对指数可能是一次性冲击 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 6 日 核心结论：美国的对等关税政策，对全球经济政治格局影响较大，但对 A 股指数可能会是一次性冲击。A 股牛市是股市政策和估值周期、房地 产去杠杆周期、各行业去产能周期的共同作用的结果。出口的影响或 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Report's Core View - Currently in the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with the resonance of fundamentals and policies, it is a good time to allocate the coal sector at a low level. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the 15th Five - Year Plan, and coal prices are expected to remain high. The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, and the team continues to be bullish on coal and suggests bottom - up allocation [3][11][12] Summary According to the Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: Coal industry fundamentals show supply - demand balance with potential for price rebound. Investment logic remains unchanged, and coal assets are cost - effective. Suggest bottom - up allocation [11][12] - **Key Focus**: China's price governance mechanism aims to improve coal market price formation. India plans to increase coal production by 42% in the next 5 years [13] II. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 0.55% this week, outperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.37% to 3861.50. The top three performing industries were power utilities (2.53%), agriculture and animal husbandry (1.56%), and pharmaceuticals (1.15%) [14] - The thermal coal sector rose 1.08%, the coking coal sector rose 0.34%, and the coke sector fell 2.08% [17] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Huaihe Energy (5.41%), China Shenhua (2.99%), and China National Coal Group (2.77%) [20] III. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of March 28, the CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) comprehensive transaction price was 667 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of April 2, the Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) comprehensive average price index was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. As of April, the CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) annual long - term agreement price was 679 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: Port price in Qinhuangdao (Q5500) was flat at 667 yuan/ton. Some产地 prices increased. International FOB prices had mixed changes, and CIF prices also varied [29] - **Coking Coal Price**: Port prices in Jingtang and Lianyungang were flat. Some产地 prices increased, and the Australian coking coal CIF price was flat but down 23.26% year - on - year [31] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: The Jiaozuo anthracite car - loading price was flat, while some pulverized coal prices decreased [39] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Mine Capacity Utilization**: The sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization rate was 94.1%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate was 86.32%, up 1.6 percentage points week - on - week [46] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: The price difference for 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal decreased week - on - week [42] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal consumption increased 23.57% week - on - week, and inventory decreased 1.31%. Coastal 8 provinces' coal consumption increased 3.22% week - on - week, and inventory increased 1.17% [47] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index decreased, while the blast furnace operation rate, ton - steel profit, and other indicators showed various changes [60][61][63] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: Urea prices in some regions increased, and some chemical product price indices decreased, while the cement price index increased. The cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, and the float glass operation rate decreased slightly [65][67] V. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory decreased to 670.0 million tons, 55 - port thermal coal inventory increased to 7228.3 million tons, and the 462 - sample mine thermal coal inventory decreased to 256.5 million tons [80] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Production - area inventory decreased to 339.7 million tons, port inventory decreased to 347.6 million tons, and coking enterprise and steel mill inventories increased [81] - **Coke Inventory**: Coking enterprise inventory decreased, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory increased [83] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1489.0 points, down 113.0 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway decreased to 100.0 million tons [96] - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Ports in the Bohai Rim**: The inventory of four ports was 1666.1 million tons, the number of anchored ships was 54, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 27.7, up 2.97 week - on - week [94] VII. Weather Situation - As of April 3, the Three Gorges出库流量 was 9350 cubic meters per second, down 10.95% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, precipitation in different regions showed different trends, and the average temperature in most parts of the country was expected to be higher than normal [101] VIII. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing price, net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratio of multiple listed coal companies from 2023 to 2026 [102] - **Key Announcements**: Multiple companies such as Lanhua Sci & Tech, Meijin Energy, and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Industry made announcements regarding resource acquisition, loan extension, and convertible bond conversion [103][104][105]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Expressway (600350) is "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a revenue of 28.494 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.34%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.07% to 3.196 billion yuan [2][3] - The toll revenue slightly declined by 5.95% to 9.928 billion yuan, while the traffic volume increased by 3.23% to 186.9 million vehicles [3] - The core road asset expansion is nearing completion, which is expected to enhance traffic volume and fee rates, potentially leading to an upward shift in profit margins [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.593 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.16% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 8.08% to 681 million yuan [2][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 yuan per share, maintaining the same level as in 2023, with a total distribution of 2.038 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63.76% [6][7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.346 billion yuan, 3.630 billion yuan, and 3.871 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.1, 13.9, and 13.1 [8]