Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the tire industry, with a projected slight increase in tire shipments in the U.S. for 2025, estimated at 0.9% growth [5][6]. Core Insights - The U.S. tire market remains stable, with retail sales in automotive parts and tire stores at $10.821 billion in January 2025, showing a month-over-month decline of 0.80% but a year-over-year increase of 2.27% [5][6]. - The collaboration between Sailun Tire and Xiaomi to develop the SU7 Ultra high-performance tire indicates innovation and potential growth in the high-performance segment [5][6]. - The U.S. tire manufacturers association (USTMA) forecasts total tire shipments to reach 340.4 million units in 2025, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 [5][6]. Summary by Sections U.S. Market - Retail sales in automotive parts and tire stores were $10.821 billion in January 2025, down 0.80% month-over-month but up 2.27% year-over-year [5][6]. - Gasoline consumption was 8.5365 million barrels per day in February 2025, up 2.79% month-over-month and 1.50% year-over-year [5][6]. - Diesel consumption was 4.0343 million barrels per day in February 2025, down 0.29% month-over-month but up 8.98% year-over-year [5][6]. - USTMA projects a 0.9% increase in U.S. tire shipments for 2025, reaching 340.4 million units [5][6]. Raw Materials - In February 2025, the average price of natural rubber was 17,161 yuan/ton, up 2.70% month-over-month and 31.72% year-over-year [7][8]. - The tire raw material price index for February 2025 was 179.43, reflecting a 3.70% increase month-over-month and an 8.98% increase year-over-year [7][8]. Production and Export - In February 2025, the average operating rate for Chinese all-steel tires was 54.44%, up 26.67 percentage points year-over-year, and for semi-steel tires, it was 66.52%, up 18.03 percentage points year-over-year [22][25]. - In December 2024, China's rubber tire production was 105.56 million units, up 2.04% month-over-month and 21.51% year-over-year [25][29]. Global Market Trends - The global tire replacement market showed a month-over-month growth of 1% in December 2024, with North America at 7% and Europe at 5% [37][38]. - The European half-steel tire replacement market reached a record high in Q4 2024, while the full-steel tire replacement market remained at a lower level [87].

Core Insights - The strongest buying power during the transition from bear to bull market is typically from long-term funds such as insurance and social security, which tend to buy against the trend [4][8] - In the early to mid-bull market, as risk control pressures ease and profit-making effects recover, seasoned investors and institutional investors will continue to increase their positions [4][8] - The recent decline in ETF shares since February indicates a transition from the early bull market to the mid-bull market [4][8] Group 1: Market Phases and Buying Power - Historical experience shows that in the late bear market and early bull market, the strongest buying power comes from institutions like insurance and social security, as most retail investors focus on short-term returns [5][9] - During the early to mid-bull market, existing investors typically increase their positions to the upper limit, as seen in previous cycles from late 2012 to mid-2014 and from 2019 to Q1 2020 [5][12] - In the mid to late bull market, new product forms and new retail capital tend to dominate the market, with significant inflows from retail investors through well-performing products [5][15] Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Currently, the buying power from ETFs has weakened, while enthusiasm from existing investors and institutional funds is on the rise, indicating a potential mid-bull market phase [4][16] - The recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market, which is more institutionally driven, suggests a strong buying power from mature investors, marking a transition to the mid-bull market [4][16] - The current state of the market does not rely on contrarian buying power, as the market can maintain a good profit-making effect without it [8][16] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests a gradual opening of the second wave of the bull market, with initial impacts possibly influenced by seasonal factors [20][23] - Recommended sectors for investment include Hong Kong internet stocks, steel, and construction, with a focus on low-priced strategies during market fluctuations [23][24] - The report emphasizes that market fluctuations often signal a shift in investment style, with potential transitions from small-cap to large-cap stocks as the market moves into a new upward phase [23][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the trend of consumer electronics companies focusing on robotics, particularly with the upcoming release of the first general-purpose embodied base model by Zhiyuan, named Genie Operator-1, which integrates various advanced AI capabilities [3] - The report suggests that the rapid development of AI is fundamentally advancing the development of humanoid robots and autonomous driving, indicating a potential for rapid industrialization in humanoid robotics [3] - Key companies to watch in the AI edge sector include Lens Technology, Linyu Intelligent Manufacturing, Pengding Holdings, Dongshan Precision, Lexin Technology, Rockchip, Hengxuan Technology, Allwinner Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Amlogic [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The semiconductor sector has seen a year-to-date increase of +13.67%, while the consumer electronics sector has increased by +10.73% [5] - In the past week, the semiconductor sector rose by +2.85%, and the consumer electronics sector rose by +1.96% [5] Notable Stock Movements - In the semiconductor sector, notable gainers include Anlu Technology (+22.68%) and Sierui Technology (+22.45%), while notable losers include Zhichun Technology (-10.45%) and Aojie Technology (-9.42%) [15] - In the consumer electronics sector, top gainers include Zhucheng Technology (+41.38%) and Xinhui Technology (+31.27%), while top losers include Kaiwang Technology (-11.55%) and Anker Innovation (-9.28%) [16] Important Announcements - Xiechuang Data announced plans to purchase servers totaling up to RMB 3 billion to enhance its computing power rental services [21] - Shanghai Silicon Industry Group plans to acquire stakes in several semiconductor companies through a combination of cash and stock issuance [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the trend of consumer electronics companies focusing on robotics, particularly with the upcoming release of the first general-purpose embodied base model by Zhiyuan, which is expected to enhance the capabilities of humanoid robots and autonomous driving [3][4] - The report suggests that advancements in AI are fundamentally driving the development of humanoid robots and autonomous driving technologies, with significant progress in foundational models [3] - It recommends continuous attention to specific stocks in the AI edge sector, including Lens Technology, Lingyi Technology, and others [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes a general increase in the semiconductor sector, with year-to-date performance as follows: Semiconductors (+13.67%), Other Electronics II (+3.58%), Components (+8.61%), Optical Electronics (+6.33%), Consumer Electronics (+10.73%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+7.41%) [3][5] - The report also details the weekly performance of major North American stocks, with notable declines in companies like Tesla (-10.35%) and Intel (-13.02%) [3][8] Stock Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI edge technologies, including: - Lens Technology - Lingyi Technology - Pengding Holdings - Dongshan Precision - Lexin Technology - Rockchip - Hengxuan Technology - Allwinner Technology - Zhaoyi Innovation - Amlogic [3] Notable Announcements - The report includes significant announcements from various companies, such as: - Xichuang Data's plan to purchase servers worth up to 3 billion RMB [21] - Shanghai Silicon Industry's acquisition plans involving multiple stakeholders [22] - Chip Source Microelectronics' announcement regarding a potential change in control [23]

- The average position of active equity funds is approximately 88.61% as of March 7, 2025[19] - The position of ordinary stock funds is about 90.52%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week[19] - The position of partial equity hybrid funds is about 89.63%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week[19] - The position of allocation funds is about 86.19%, down 0.33 percentage points from last week[19] - The average position of "fixed income+" funds is about 23.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week[19] - The position of large-cap growth stocks is 17.66%, up 0.29 percentage points from last week[27] - The position of large-cap value stocks is 12.11%, up 1.42 percentage points from last week[27] - The position of mid-cap growth stocks is 9.45%, down 1.75 percentage points from last week[27] - The position of mid-cap value stocks is 10.9%, down 0.53 percentage points from last week[27] - The position of small-cap growth stocks is 45.36%, up 0.68 percentage points from last week[27] - The position of small-cap value stocks is 4.52%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week[27] - The proportion of active equity funds allocated to the food and beverage industry is about 5.56%, up 0.30 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the non-ferrous metals industry is about 4.00%, up 0.29 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the banking industry is about 3.05%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the automotive industry is about 5.73%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the national defense and military industry is about 4.84%, up 0.14 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the pharmaceutical industry is about 10.65%, down 0.39 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the electronics industry is about 16.38%, down 0.32 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the power equipment and new energy industry is about 7.68%, down 0.30 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the home appliance industry is about 3.37%, down 0.14 percentage points from last week[30] - The proportion allocated to the transportation industry is about 2.21%, down 0.13 percentage points from last week[30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the current oil price cycle is fundamentally driven by supply-side factors, with concerns over oil demand persisting in the market. Some oil-producing countries are shifting from a strategy of market share competition to one focused on price support and revenue protection. The U.S. oil production faces constraints due to resource degradation and inflationary pressures on costs, while OPEC+ maintains a strong commitment to high oil prices, suggesting a continued support for price floors [6][8][7]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of March 7, 2025, oil prices have shown a downward trend, with Brent and WTI prices at $70.36 and $67.04 per barrel, respectively. This reflects a decrease of 3.36% and 3.90% from the previous week [6][22]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that the U.S. shale oil production capacity is limited due to various factors, including energy policies and rising costs. OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts, which could further tighten global supply [7][8]. Offshore Drilling Services - As of March 3, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms is 378, a decrease of 5 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling platforms is 141, also down by 1 [28]. U.S. Oil Supply - The U.S. oil production was reported at 13.508 million barrels per day as of February 28, 2025, with an increase of 0.06 million barrels per day from the previous week. The active rig count remained stable at 486 [33][30]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing was 15.387 million barrels per day as of February 28, 2025, a decrease of 346,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 85.90% [38][34]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of February 28, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 829 million barrels, an increase of 3.614 million barrels (+0.44%) from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory rose to 434 million barrels, up by 3.614 million barrels (+0.84%) [44][39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the improvement in price spreads for polyolefins [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and international refining project price spreads have shown improvement, with domestic spreads at 2475.37 CNY/ton, up by 14.50 CNY/ton (+0.59%) week-on-week, while international spreads are at 1068.01 CNY/ton, up by 5.75 CNY/ton (+0.54%) [2][1]. - Brent crude oil averaged 70.72 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 4.27% week-on-week, influenced by various bearish factors including increased supply expectations and rising U.S. crude oil inventories [1][13]. - The refining sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with domestic gasoline and diesel price spreads strengthening due to declining costs, while international product price spreads are weakening [1][13]. - In the chemical sector, olefin prices are showing strength, with significant improvements in price spreads for polyolefins, while other products like EVA and pure benzene are experiencing price declines [1][40][46]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Iraq has resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region, and OPEC+ plans to increase production starting in April, leading to bearish pressure on international oil prices [1][13]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are reported at 7257.14 CNY/ton and 8440.86 CNY/ton respectively, with price spreads against crude oil showing positive changes [13]. Chemical Sector - Polyethylene prices are stable with slight increases, and price spreads have improved significantly [40]. - EVA prices have slightly decreased, but the price spread has widened [40]. - The market for acrylonitrile is oversupplied, leading to a significant drop in prices [46]. - The polyester sector is facing price declines, but the price spread has improved slightly [54][61]. Polyester Sector - PX prices are down, but the price spread against crude oil has widened [54]. - PTA prices have decreased slightly, with a small improvement in profitability [61]. - The demand for polyester filament yarn is increasing, leading to a slight recovery in profitability for certain products [63]. Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, noting varied performance over the past week and month, with notable increases for companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Dongfang Shenghong [82][83].

汽车行业跟踪（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）：吉利发布"千里浩瀚" 安全高阶智驾系统，商务部公布 2025 年以来收到汽车置换更新 补贴超 70 万份 [Table_Industry] 汽车行业 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 9 日 2 | 证券研究报告 | | | --- | --- | | 行业研究 | | | Table_ReportType] [行业周报 | | | [Table_StockAndRank] | | | 汽车 | | | 看好 投资评级 | | | 上次评级 看好 | | | 邓健全 汽车行业首席分析师 | | | 执业编号：S1500525010002 联系电话：13613012393 | | | 箱：dengjianquan@cindasc.com | 邮 | | 丁泓婧 汽车行业分析师 | | | 执业编号：S1500524100004 | | | 联系电话：13062621910 | | | 邮箱：dinghongjing@cindasc.com | | | 徐国铨 汽车行业研究助理 | | | 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the improvement in price spreads for polyolefins [98]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and international refining project price spreads have improved, with domestic spreads at 2475.37 CNY/ton, up 0.59% week-on-week, and international spreads at 1068.01 CNY/ton, up 0.54% week-on-week [2][6]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged 70.72 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 4.27% [2][13]. - The refining sector is facing downward pressure on oil prices due to increased supply expectations and geopolitical tensions, impacting overall energy demand [13]. - The chemical sector shows mixed performance, with olefin prices remaining strong and spreads widening, while other products like EVA and pure benzene are experiencing price declines [40][46]. - The polyester sector is seeing a decline in prices but an improvement in spreads, with PX prices down to 6097.48 CNY/ton [54][61]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Iraq has resumed oil exports from the Kurdistan region, and OPEC+ plans to increase production starting in April, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [13]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have strengthened due to lower costs, while international refined product price spreads have weakened [13]. Chemical Sector - Olefin prices are showing strength, with significant improvements in price spreads for polyethylene products [40]. - EVA prices have slightly decreased, leading to wider spreads, while pure benzene prices have dropped due to returning refining capacities [40][46]. - The acrylonitrile market is oversupplied, resulting in significant price drops [46]. Polyester Sector - The cost side is weakening, leading to overall price declines in the polyester chain, but spreads are improving [61]. - The demand for polyester filament yarn is increasing, with prices slightly declining but profitability improving for POY and DTY products [61][75]. Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, noting varied performance over the past week and month, with notable increases for companies like Oriental Rainbow [82][83].

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 出口：预期与现实的分化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 9 日 [Table_Summary] 今年年初出口增速低于市场普遍预期，进口同比增长更是低于市场预期 的温和增长。出口和进口双双不及预期，这与市场此前对外贸"开门红" 的预期完全不同，现实与预期形成较明显的分化。 ➢ 风险因素：稳增长政策力度不及预期，全球经济景气度不及预期等。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.c ...