Core Views - The A-share market is experiencing mixed performance with shrinking trading volume, indicating potential volatility ahead, particularly due to liquidity tightening affecting high-valuation sectors [3][9][10] - Despite overall market weakness, certain sectors are showing resilience, particularly consumer stocks, banking, and companies with positive earnings forecasts for Q1 [3][9][10] - The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's tariff policies is creating uncertainty for the A-share market and economic fundamentals, necessitating close monitoring of trade negotiations [3][10] Market Overview - On Tuesday, the three major indices in the A-share market showed mixed results, with total trading volume falling below 1.1 trillion yuan. The market sentiment is generally weak, with a notable decrease in trading activity during the recent rebound [5][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3267.66 points, up 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.27% to 9858.10 points. The ChiNext Index also saw a slight decline of 0.13% [6][11] Sector Performance - Consumer stocks, particularly in the beauty, cosmetics, and food and beverage sectors, are showing strong performance, driven by government initiatives to boost domestic consumption [7][9] - Banking stocks are providing support to the index, with expectations of interest rate cuts and increased capital inflows enhancing their appeal as stable dividend-paying investments [8][9] - The report highlights the potential for agricultural stocks to benefit from rising prices due to tariff policies, suggesting a focus on this sector moving forward [7] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider three main lines for low-cost positioning: self-sufficient sectors (semiconductors, AI computing), domestic consumption (pharmaceuticals, food and beverages), and high-dividend sectors (state-owned enterprises, public utilities) [3][10] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic targets set for 2025, which may bolster market confidence in the medium term [4][10]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 4 月 15 日 美国关税反复无常，逢低布局三条主线 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一沪深三大指数继续反弹，板块个股涨多跌少，盘面上看，海南概念股、 体育产业等领涨。市场情绪延续回暖趋势，但成交额整体萎缩下，回升情绪也在 边际递减。当前关税的实质性影响以及市场基本面仍有隐忧。 特朗普政府在关税问题上的反复无常也令人头疼。短期对 A 股市场及经济基 本面造成扰动及不确定性，预计国内政策加码对冲的力度也会加大。后市密切关 注贸易谈判的情况。若双方能够通过谈判缓解紧张局势，市场信心将得到较大提 振，反之则可能继续承压。对于投资者来说，可逢低布局三条主线：一是自主可 控领域（半导体、AI 算力等）；二是内需消费（医药、食品饮料等）；三是高股 息板块（央国企、公用事业等）。 后续还要关注国内政策的对冲力度。考虑两会中设定的 2025 年的经济目标， 预计后续财政、货币政策都会加大刺激力度。中期支撑基础 ...

Core Views - The A-share market has shown a four-day rally since April 8, following a significant drop on April 7, driven by state intervention and policy releases that alleviated liquidity pressure [1][14] - The temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has improved global market sentiment, contributing to the recovery of A-shares [1][14] - The logic of domestic substitution has been reinforced, with accelerated progress in self-sufficiency in key industries, particularly in the semiconductor sector [1][14] Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant drop of 3.11% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 5.13% for the Shenzhen Component Index in the previous week, but has since rebounded [7] - The semiconductor sector has been a standout performer, with strong gains driven by new policies and market dynamics [9][10] - The overall market sentiment has improved, with a total trading volume of 13,487 billion yuan, indicating active trading conditions [6] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector has seen substantial growth, supported by national policies and the establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [9] - Precious metals have also surged as investors seek safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties, with gold prices rising significantly [10] - Consumer stocks have shown resilience, particularly in the food and beverage sectors, as domestic consumption is expected to drive economic recovery [11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued support from domestic policies, with expectations of increased fiscal and monetary stimulus to bolster the economy [3][15] - Close attention should be paid to trade negotiations, as successful outcomes could lead to a rebound in export-oriented industries [15] - The semiconductor and AI sectors are expected to receive more policy support, making them attractive for investors looking for opportunities [15]

Core Views - The recent collective rise of the A-share market indices is attributed to the temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, which has improved global market sentiment [2][8] - The market has recovered above 3200 points, indicating a potential end to the recent downward trend driven by emotional short-term selling [2][9] - Despite the positive sentiment, concerns remain regarding the substantial impact of tariffs and the overall market fundamentals, as corporate earnings have not yet fully improved [2][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the A-share market indices continued to rebound, supported by several favorable factors including state intervention, a wave of stock buybacks by listed companies, and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][5] - The trading volume reached 16,095 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,223.64 points, up 1.16%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.25% [5] - The precious metals sector saw significant activity, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global tariff tensions [6] Sector Performance - The precious metals and consumer sectors, including dairy, food and beverage, and retail, showed strong performance, indicating a shift towards domestic consumption as a key driver for economic recovery in 2025 [7][8] - The recent announcement by the State Taxation Administration to promote "immediate refund" services for overseas travelers has boosted the performance of duty-free and tax refund concept stocks [6][7] Future Market Outlook - Continued attention is required on trade negotiations, as successful outcomes could lead to a rebound in industries with strong export recovery expectations [9] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic goals set during the Two Sessions, which is expected to bolster market sentiment in the medium term [3][9]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 不过，当前关税的实质性影响以及市场基本面仍有隐忧。企业盈利尚未全面 改善，担忧仍有延续。此外，外部扰动未消除。美国加征关税的潜在影响及美股 波动仍可能影响 A 股风险偏好。 后续要关注国内政策的对冲力度。考虑两会中设定的 2025 年的经济目标， 预计后续财政、货币政策都会加大刺激力度。中期支撑基础和提振动力依旧下， 我们仍看好市场中期向好的趋势。因此，短期波动不改中期慢牛格局。接下来又 该如何应对呢？操作上，首先，规避出口关联度高的行业；其次，短期聚焦政策 红利与防御性资产。政策受益方面：军工、半导体、农业等板块仍具弹性。而防 御性配置上，消费、公用事业等低估值高股息资产；最后，中长期布局盈利改善 与成长逻辑。短线高手可高抛低吸。 分析师：惠祥凤 2025 年 4 月 10 日 四大利好助力 A 股反弹，但外部扰动仍未消除，高抛低吸或是占优策略 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三沪深三大指数继续反弹，半导体板块及军工概念股大涨。主要有以下几 个方面的利好：一是国家队紧急驰援。中央汇金等国家队迅速出手。通过 ETF 增 持，给市场注入流动性；二是上市 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 对于 A 股市场来说，短期对出口链影响较大。从行业角度来看，出口关联度 高的行业无疑将受到最直接且显著的影响。风险偏好方面,"对等关税"使得避 险情绪升温，资金流向或发生改变。在 A 股市场，资金流向或出现变化。一方面， 资金涌入避险板块，另一方面，资金从高风险、不确定性较高的板块流出，导致 部分科技股、成长股遭受抛售。市场整体观望情绪浓厚。上周四的市场也验证了 上述逻辑，上周四沪深三大指数集体调整。盘面上看，大消费、贵金属及电力等 防御性板块走强，出口占比较高的板块个股表现不佳，科技股也出现大面积下跌。 每 周 投 资 早 参 2025 年 4 月 7 日 美国"对等关税"落地，对 A 股有哪些影响？地量是否见地价？ 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当地时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税"的 行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征 收更高关税。具体关税税率可查阅相关新闻报道。 商务部新闻发言人就美方宣布"对等关税"发表谈话：中方对此坚决反对， 并将坚决采取反制措施维护 ...

Core Views - Recent market adjustments are attributed to a divergence in market styles, with high-flying technology stocks experiencing volatility while undervalued large-cap stocks perform relatively well [2][15][16] - The market is currently in a phase of cautious sentiment, influenced by factors such as tightening liquidity, upcoming earnings reports, and external uncertainties like U.S. tariffs on China [3][16][19] Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.40%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.75%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.12% over the past week [7][19] - The total trading volume across the two exchanges was 11,190 billion, indicating a significant reduction in market activity [6][19] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector has shown resilience, with pharmaceutical stocks gaining traction due to their low valuations and potential for recovery in 2025 [8][9] - Precious metals have seen renewed interest as investors seek safe-haven assets amid rising global trade tensions and declining inflation rates [9][10] - Chemical stocks experienced fluctuations, with some segments like titanium dioxide seeing price increases, but overall performance remains mixed [10][11] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its phase of adjustment, with potential opportunities for low-cost acquisitions as conditions stabilize [4][17] - Short-term pressures on small-cap stocks are anticipated, while large-cap stocks with stable dividends may continue to attract investment [4][17][18] - The industrial machinery sector is highlighted as a promising area for investment, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing manufacturing capabilities [14][18]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment, influenced by uncertainties related to overseas tariffs and the upcoming earnings season, suggesting that the downward trend may not yet be over [3][9] - The total trading volume in the market remains below 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of strength in the overall rebound, with market participants showing a cautious sentiment [3][11] Industry Insights - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in January-February 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. For the entire year of 2024, the total profit was 74,310.50 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, although December 2024 saw a turnaround with profits increasing by 11.0% compared to November [4][9] - The chemical sector has shown strength, particularly with the price of chemical products like double-seasoned tetramethylol increasing significantly, from 20,000 yuan per ton in October 2024 to 55,000 yuan per ton in March 2025, marking a 175% increase [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests avoiding stocks that have been excessively speculated without clear earnings support, while focusing on sectors expected to outperform during the earnings season [5][10] - It recommends positioning in sectors such as large financials, cyclical stocks, and high-dividend or undervalued consumer stocks during market dips, while maintaining flexibility in trading strategies to capitalize on market fluctuations [5][10] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the current market adjustment may create favorable buying opportunities in the future, with a medium to long-term positive outlook supported by economic resilience and ongoing policy support [4][10] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain cautious in the short term, but the potential for a gradual recovery exists, indicating a slow bull market trend [10]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in trading volume, dropping to less than 1.3 trillion yuan, primarily due to a pullback in the technology sector and tightening liquidity at the end of the quarter [2][5][9] - Investor risk appetite has decreased, influenced by uncertainties surrounding domestic economic validation and U.S. tariffs on China, leading to increased cautious sentiment among investors [3][9][12] - The market showed a narrow fluctuation with the three major indices closing slightly lower, indicating a lack of strength in the overall rebound [10][12] Sector Performance - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a rise, supported by substantial growth in new installed capacity and improving profitability for downstream companies as silicon material prices stabilize [7][8] - The industrial mother machine concept stocks also experienced gains, driven by the establishment of a high-end intelligent equipment industrial base in Shanghai, which aligns with national policies promoting manufacturing upgrades [8][9] Future Outlook - The report maintains a cautious outlook, suggesting that the downward trend in indices may not have ended, with potential for further declines in the short term [3][11] - Investors are advised to avoid speculative stocks lacking performance support and focus on sectors with strong earnings expectations during the upcoming earnings season [11] - Long-term support for the market remains due to resilient economic growth, ongoing policy support, and expectations of profit recovery, indicating a slow bull market despite short-term adjustments [3][11]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 26 日 成交大幅萎缩，观望情绪增加 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，周一 A 股市场盘中显著分化，阶段性的调整或未结束。造成 这种分化的原因可能如下：一方面，财报效应与风格切换预期；另一方面，流动 性收缩与资金偏好转向。自 3 月科技股分化以来，市场存量资金博弈明显，资金 倾向于规避业绩不确定性高的小盘股，转向分红稳定、估值低的大盘蓝筹之际， 资金更趋于谨慎。接下来又将如何演绎呢？我们认为，首先，短期小盘股或仍有 压力。其次，中期看，市场风格可能趋于均衡。操作上，一是短期内应避开前期 被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股；二是可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息 率或低估值消费板块。 市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，尾盘收绿，短期延续调 整态势。盘面上看，煤炭、电力、银行、消费等防御性板块走强，前期热门的 TMT 赛道回调，泛 AI 主题、人行机器人等概念股跌幅居前。 周二两市成交萎缩至不 ...