行业研究丨深度报告丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 从电力弹性系数出发，看长期煤炭需求韧性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 需求韧性托底价，长线配置正当时。在电力弹性系数未来重回 1 以上的前提下，考虑到风光装 机增量阶段性达峰，核电增量有限、水电并无连续增量，则火电至少平稳，动力煤需求由此仍 具韧性，由此奠定了动力煤中长期投资价值。板块投资上，当前阶段，我们看好基本面困境改 善叠加"反内卷"主线下的攻守兼备投资性价比。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 庄越 韦思宇 宋楚 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

Group 1: Liquidity Analysis - The recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been negatively impacted by a stable US dollar index, leading to limited liquidity improvements [3][7] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September are expected to significantly enhance liquidity in the Hong Kong market, potentially benefiting emerging markets [25][27] - A comparison shows that the A-share market has seen a more substantial influx of funds, particularly with a rapid increase in margin financing [17][19] Group 2: Industry Structure - The proportion of "hard technology" companies in the Hong Kong stock market is lower compared to the A-share market, with significant representation from banking and consumer sectors [8][27] - The upcoming IPOs in Hong Kong are expected to increase the representation of "hard technology" companies, which could positively influence the overall market index [34][36] - The performance of the Hong Kong market has been constrained by the lower weight of high-growth sectors such as semiconductors and electric equipment [30][31] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key areas of focus for future investment in the Hong Kong market include AI applications, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and supply-side adjustments [9][36] - The AI sector is highlighted as a significant growth area, with potential for substantial market performance if downstream AI products achieve commercial success [37][39] - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly gold, is expected to perform well during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, historically showing positive trends during such periods [40][41] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a surge in outbound business development transactions, indicating growing international recognition of Chinese innovations [45][46] - Supply-side adjustments are anticipated in industries with improving demand and prolonged supply-side clearing, which may lead to a recovery in these sectors [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the energy consumption standards for silicon materials may tighten, which could lead to the exit of outdated production capacity. Additionally, the demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, driven by new policies and market dynamics [14][41] Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaics - The silicon material energy consumption standard has been tightened from 7.5 kgce/kg to 6.5 kgce/kg, aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [20] - The mechanism for electricity pricing in Shandong has been implemented, with solar power projects expected to restart demand [21] - The report recommends stocks benefiting from the anti-involution trend, including Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and LONGi Green Energy [15][33] 2. Energy Storage - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have issued a plan for large-scale construction of new energy storage, targeting an installed capacity of over 180 GW by 2027 [41] - Various provinces are implementing capacity pricing mechanisms, with Ningxia setting a capacity price of 100 yuan/kW·year from October to December 2025, increasing to 165 yuan/kW·year from January 2026 [40][41] - The report recommends leading companies in the energy storage sector, such as Sungrow Power Supply and Deye Technology [14][41] 3. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is experiencing stable upward momentum, with a focus on high-end battery manufacturers and solid-state battery developments [14] - The report highlights companies like CATL and Xiamen Tungsten Co. as key players in this space [15] 4. Wind Power - The wind power sector is seeing accelerated industry recovery, particularly in offshore wind and international markets [14] - Recommended stocks include Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy, which are expected to benefit from this trend [15] 5. Power Equipment - The report notes that the ultra-high voltage sector remains robust, with ongoing approvals for major projects [14] - Companies such as Mingyang Electric and Sifang Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [15] 6. New Directions - The report emphasizes the growth potential in humanoid robotics and AIDC technologies, with companies like Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Zhejiang Rongtai being recommended [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase, achieving 2.626 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.7% [2][6]. - The gross profit reached 990 million yuan, with a growth of 25.3%, while the gross margin decreased by 4.61 percentage points to 37.71% [2][6]. - Research and development expenses amounted to 893 million yuan, up 5.1%, with an R&D expense ratio of 34.0%, down 11.5 percentage points [2][6]. - The enterprise AI platform, "Xian Zhi AI," generated 2.149 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 71.9% increase and accounting for 81.8% of total revenue [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.626 billion yuan, a 40.7% increase year-on-year [2][6]. - The adjusted net loss was 44 million yuan, narrowing by 71.2% compared to the previous year [8]. AI Platform Growth - The "Xian Zhi AI" platform's revenue was 2.149 billion yuan, reflecting a 72% year-on-year growth, with its revenue share increasing from 67% to 81.8% [8]. - The average revenue per benchmark user reached 17.98 million yuan, up 56.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in value derived from the platform [8]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross profit for H1 2025 was 990 million yuan, with a gross margin decline from 42.3% to 37.7% due to changes in revenue structure [8]. - The company’s sales, management, and R&D expenses were 189 million, 86 million, and 893 million yuan respectively, with R&D expense ratio decreasing significantly [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation across various industries in China, with projected revenues of 6.937 billion, 9.062 billion, and 11.797 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a compound growth rate of approximately 30% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company's PE ratio as of the end of August is 37.02x, positioned at the 52nd percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of cost-effectiveness for allocation. It is expected that with the continuous enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of 30.3 billion, 33.2 billion, and 35.6 billion HKD for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 19.4 billion, 20.6 billion, and 22.3 billion HKD, corresponding to PE valuations of 29.3, 27.7, and 25.4 times respectively [2][50]. Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend in August, driven by domestic policy support and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 25.0% and 27.0% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in August was 279.1 billion HKD, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 192.1% [10][15]. Business Segments - **Spot Market**: The overall Hong Kong stock market saw significant increases in trading activity, with the ADT for northbound trading reaching 322.8 billion HKD, up 45.2% month-on-month and 204.9% year-on-year. Southbound trading ADT was 155.2 billion HKD, reflecting increases of 7.4% month-on-month and 448.3% year-on-year [8][15]. - **Derivatives Market**: The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 62.7 thousand contracts, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 9.6% and 5.3% respectively. The ADV for options was 96.2 thousand contracts, with increases of 2.1% month-on-month and 34.5% year-on-year [19]. - **Primary Market**: In August, the IPO scale in the Hong Kong stock market decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year, with a total of 6 new listings raising 5.4 billion HKD, a 73% decrease month-on-month but a 189% increase year-on-year [29][31]. Investment Income - As of the end of August, the HIBOR rates for 6 months, 1 month, overnight, and the US overnight bank funding rate were 3.27%, 3.30%, 4.00%, and 4.33% respectively, showing month-on-month increases but year-on-year declines for most rates [38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Views - The pace of insurance capital entering the market has accelerated, with insurance potentially adding several hundred billion yuan of long-term funds to the A-share market annually. This influx is expected to benefit low-volatility, high-dividend assets, enhancing their investment value [2][6] - The steel sector is witnessing a confirmation of profit bottoms and a slowdown in capital expenditure, highlighting the dividend attributes of quality leading companies, which are expected to attract long-term incremental capital [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with significant improvements in plate demand due to eased production restrictions in key manufacturing areas. However, the demand during the "Golden September" period appears slightly insufficient [5] - The average daily pig iron production has risen to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 11.71 thousand tons per day, indicating a high level of production [5] - Total steel inventory has increased by 0.83% week-on-week and 0.49% year-on-year, reflecting a buildup in stock levels [5] Price Trends - The price of Shanghai rebar has dropped to 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel has increased to 3,410 yuan/ton, up by 10 yuan/ton. The estimated profit for rebar is -87 yuan/ton [5] Policy and Structural Changes - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the steel industry, potentially supporting steel prices by constraining backward production capacity [6][26] - The report anticipates that the supply of iron ore may become more relaxed, with new projects coming online, which could lead to a decrease in iron ore prices [6] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from cost reductions due to new capacities in iron and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Hualing Steel [26] 2. Companies with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance and valuation recovery, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [27] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform theme, which could enhance asset quality and valuation [27] 4. Quality processing leaders and resource leaders, particularly in specialized fields, such as Jiuli Special Materials and Yongjin Co., with a focus on copper and iron resources [27]

Market Overview - The trading activity of dividend style has shown a recovery, with the micro盘 index's congestion level continuing to decline[1] - The weekly trading volume in the market has slightly decreased, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen[1] - The growth style has rebounded from last week's pullback, indicating ongoing style switching in the market[1] Sector Performance - The real estate sector has led the weekly gains, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors also performing relatively well[3] - High dividend sectors such as coal and insurance remain at low congestion levels, suggesting potential for future growth[1][3] Fund Performance - The fund-heavy indices have continued their upward trend, with the fund-heavy index gaining 2.50% this week, outperforming the benchmark[23] - The Northbound heavy series has underperformed compared to the overall market since the beginning of 2025[27] Style Tracking - The "Growth+" series has performed well, with the growth index showing a weekly gain of 4.78%[33] - The high profitability quality index has also seen a recovery, indicating a positive trend in profitability quality[1][3] Thematic Trends - The specialized and innovative series indices have shown good rebounds, with the specialized and innovative selected index gaining 6.92% this week[35] - The carbon neutrality and rural revitalization indices have also performed positively, with gains of 2.08% and 1.03% respectively[35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and net profit of 410 million yuan, growing 2.4% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to accelerate its international strategy and overseas business development, as well as enhance its overseas financing capabilities [2][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, online direct sales, online distribution, and offline sales generated revenues of 3.91 billion, 1.2 billion, and 250 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of 4.9%, 25.9%, and -21.5% [9]. - The main brand and sub-brands showed varied performance, with the main brand's revenue slightly declining by 0.1%, while sub-brands like OR and 原色波塔 saw significant growth of 103% and 80% respectively [9]. - The gross profit margin improved by 3.6 percentage points in H1 2025, attributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [9]. - The overall net profit margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 14.9%, although Q2 saw a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% due to increased sales expenses during promotional periods [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion of its main brand and the continued strong performance of its sub-brands, which could contribute to incremental growth [9]. - EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.28, 5.05, and 5.77 yuan per share respectively [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 15th to September 21st, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 18.8519 billion yuan, including 11.8538 billion yuan of new bonds (2.0715 billion yuan of new general bonds and 9.7823 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.9981 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.3888 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.6093 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][4]. - From September 8th to September 14th, the actual issuance of local government bonds is 30.1672 billion yuan, including 14.6601 billion yuan of new bonds (1.4732 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.1868 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 15.5072 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (8.7045 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 6.8026 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - As of September 14, 2025, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 102.7566 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount is 221.8079 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (12.7460 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three provinces or municipalities directly under the central government in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (8.7087 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Local Debt Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From September 8th to September 14th, the net supply of local government bonds is 19.28 billion yuan; from September 15th to September 21st, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 3.09 billion yuan [14][17]. - **Comparison between Planned and Actual Issuance**: In August, there are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds; in September, there are also differences between the disclosed plan and the actual issuance [16][18]. Local Debt Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 77.18%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds is 75.83% [25]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of September 14 shows the net supply situation of refinancing bonds [25]. Special Debt Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 14, it shows the issuance statistics of special refinancing bonds in different rounds for various regions [29]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 14, it shows the issuance statistics of special new special bonds in 2023 - 2025 for various regions [32]. Local Debt Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: It shows the primary - secondary spread and regional secondary spread of local government bonds [36][37]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: It shows the investment direction of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [8] Core Insights - The bidding results for wind and solar energy in Shandong for 2025 show a clear differentiation, with wind energy having a selected volume of 5.967 billion kWh and a clearing price of 0.319 CNY/kWh, while solar energy has a selected volume of 1.248 billion kWh and a clearing price of 0.225 CNY/kWh [2][11] - The new pricing mechanism for grid connection capacity is expected to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy, promoting a win-win situation for the grid, power generation companies, and users [2][11] Summary by Sections Bidding Results - The wind energy projects in Shandong are limited in number but have a large allocated bidding volume, with a rational bidding price close to the upper limit, indicating stable profit expectations [2][11] - The solar energy projects face intense competition, leading to a clearing price that is under pressure, reflecting a more challenging market environment [2][11] Pricing Mechanism - Recent regulatory changes propose a shift to a single capacity-based pricing model for grid connection, which is expected to streamline the pricing mechanism for nearby consumption projects [2][11] - The new pricing structure aims to eliminate additional fees for energy delivered to the grid, thus enhancing the economic viability of renewable energy projects [2][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing reforms in the electricity market are revitalizing power operators, with a focus on high-quality development in the renewable energy sector [2][11] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, among others, due to their strong positions in the transitioning energy landscape [2][11]