Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Banks are significant participants in the bond market, and changes in their investment strategies can greatly impact the market [3][17] - The analysis is based on 135 sample banks, revealing a trend of reduced allocation to self-operated investments while increasing the proportion of trading accounts, particularly OCI assets, in a low-interest-rate environment [5][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the marginal changes in the investment strategies of state-owned banks due to their substantial influence on the bond market [8] Summary by Sections Bank Self-Operated Investment Overview - The self-operated investment business of banks accounted for 30.7% of total assets by the end of 2024, showing a significant upward trend from 2022 to 2024 [5][15] - The increase in self-operated investment is driven by the need for performance management amid pressure on net interest margins and weak growth in interest income and fees [32][29] Accounting Classification of Self-Operated Investments - Self-operated investments are classified into three accounting categories: AC (Amortized Cost), OCI (Other Comprehensive Income), and TPL (Trading Profit and Loss), each affecting the profit and loss statement differently [6][43] - The structure of these accounts varies among different types of banks, with state-owned banks having the highest proportion of AC accounts, while rural commercial banks lead in OCI assets [56][57] Impact of Low-Interest Rates on Investment Strategies - In a low-interest-rate environment, banks are reducing the proportion of AC accounts to mitigate passive holding risks and expanding trading accounts to capture market fluctuations [65][66] - The report notes that banks can realize gains from OCI and AC accounts to support their performance during periods of profit pressure, with a contribution of 2.2% to operating income from such actions in 2024 [71][72] Focus on State-Owned Banks' Investment Strategy Changes - The report highlights that changes in the trading account proportions of state-owned banks can lead to increased market predictability and reduced volatility in the bond market [8][86] - However, unexpected events can lead to significant market fluctuations due to differing interpretations among market participants [8]

Group 1 - The report attempts to integrate subjective judgment and quantitative analysis to construct a style rotation framework, primarily based on five dimensions to build a core style rotation model, which will eventually be applied to actual investable portfolios [3][8] - The fundamental perspective of growth and value style rotation strategy has shown long-term excess returns compared to its balanced allocation benchmark, although the performance of the strategy is limited due to varying transmission paths and delays of different fundamental indicators under different contexts [3][10] Group 2 - The report reviews the construction of style indices and the style rotation framework, continuing to explore the growth and value style rotation from a fundamental perspective [8][17] - Common fundamental indicators are primarily micro data, but the report adopts a different perspective by observing the overall situation of the equity market or specific styles, reflecting the specific conditions of certain groups [8][30] Group 3 - The analysis of fundamental factors is conducted from five angles: growth, profitability, financial health and solvency, operational efficiency, and valuation levels, with growth, profitability, and valuation signals being relatively stable and accurate [9][31] - The overall turnover rate of the growth and value style rotation strategy is low, generally favoring long-term holdings of growth or value stocks, with an average monthly win rate of approximately 60.91% and an average annualized return of about 15.26% from January 1, 2005, to April 29, 2025 [10][31] Group 4 - The growth style index and value style index are constructed based on similar logic, with the main difference being the sorting of constituent stocks using growth and value factors respectively [18][21] - The report outlines the style rotation framework, which is expected to be based on five major dimensions to construct the core style rotation model, focusing on the fundamental dimension of growth and value style rotation [27][30] Group 5 - The report categorizes fundamental indicators into two main types: market overall indicators and style difference indicators, further divided into growth indicators, profitability indicators, financial health and solvency indicators, operational efficiency indicators, and valuation indicators [30][31] - The financial health and solvency indicators focus on the reasonableness of capital structure and short-term liquidity, with asset-liability ratio and current ratio being particularly effective in the context of growth and value style rotation [57][65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The essence of AI is a productivity revolution, with its core being the replacement of human labor. The application of AI will progress through three stages: assisting humans, replacing humans, and surpassing human capabilities [28] - The current AI technology cycle can be divided into an "upper half" focused on model intelligence and an "lower half" emphasizing application and system integration [11] - The emergence of large models marks a significant shift from mechanical intelligence to human-like intelligence, enhancing capabilities such as understanding, generation, logic, and memory [18][19] Summary by Sections AI Development Waves - AI has experienced three historical waves: the initial phase (1950-1970), the exploration phase (1980-1990), and the rapid development phase post-2000, characterized by breakthroughs in machine learning and deep learning [7][8] AI Technology Cycle - The AI technology cycle is divided into two halves: the upper half focuses on model and algorithm innovation, while the lower half emphasizes real-world application and system integration [11][12] Large Model Technology Cycle - The success of the Transform framework has led to significant advancements in large models, with scaling laws indicating that larger models yield higher performance and new capabilities [17][18] AI Application Stages - The application of AI will evolve through three stages: 1. Assisting humans, where AI handles fixed processes 2. Replacing humans, where AI can take over 80% of tasks 3. Surpassing humans, where AI capabilities exceed those of the most skilled professionals [28] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights various companies and their performance in the AI sector, indicating significant growth potential in AI applications across different industries, including enterprise services, healthcare, and e-commerce [38] Cloud Services as Core Investment - Cloud services are identified as a critical investment area in the current AI landscape, with increasing demand driven by the rising usage of large models [63][67]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - There is a shortage of high-end special glass fiber, and the report continues to recommend African building materials [2][6] - Cement prices are expected to rise, while glass inventory has slightly accumulated [8] - The report recommends focusing on the African supply chain and domestic substitution chain, with leading companies being the main focus for the year [10] Summary by Sections Special Glass Fiber - Low CTE glass fiber fabric is in short supply, with major manufacturers like Mitsubishi Gas Chemical issuing delayed delivery notices, extending lead times to 4-5 months [6] - The demand for advanced packaging materials, particularly for AI GPUs, is driving supply constraints in high-end Low CTE glass fiber fabric [6] - China National Materials Technology is expected to benefit significantly due to rapid capacity expansion and product upgrades, with an anticipated monthly capacity of approximately 6 million meters by the end of 2026 [6] Cement Market - The domestic cement market saw a slight increase in demand, with an average shipment rate of 48% in key regions, up by about 1.4 percentage points month-on-month but down 5.5% year-on-year [8][24] - The national average cement price decreased by 0.8% month-on-month, with some regions planning to increase prices in June [8][25] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market is experiencing weak demand, with prices continuing to decline [9][36] - The production capacity utilization rate is at 81.65%, with a total of 285 production lines and a daily melting capacity of 159,205 tons [9][36] - Inventory levels have increased slightly, with a total of 57.89 million weight boxes in key monitored provinces, reflecting a 0.26% increase [9][36] Recommendations - The report actively recommends companies like Keda Manufacturing in the African supply chain, which has advantages in production, channels, and brand [10] - For domestic substitution, companies such as China National Materials Technology, Mega Chip Color, and Puyang Huicheng are highlighted due to their strong positions in the market [10] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the existing building materials sector, particularly in renovation and public construction [10]

[Table_Title] 自强者胜——关税应对策略三部曲（三） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨行业深度 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在宏观环境持续扰动的大背景下，世界"新格局"逐步显现，中国有望在各个领域得到长足发 展。在科技领域，我国明确提出自主可控发展路线，着力解决各"卡脖子"领域面临的技术和 产业化难题。在本篇报告中，长江策略联合金属、化工、机械、军工、电子、计算机、通信和 医药组，构建自上而下的自主可控行业研究框架，再结合自下而上视角梳理自主可控领域的核 心细分赛道和核心标的，以期得到较为完整的自主可控领域的投资图谱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 王鹤涛 马太 SAC：S0490524010002 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BTR264 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT911 赵智勇 王贺嘉 杨洋 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BRP550 SFC ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of self-reliance in key technology sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment in industries aligned with national strategic needs [3][9][18]. Core Insights - The report outlines a framework for self-reliant industry research, highlighting the need for China to overcome "bottleneck" issues in various sectors due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [9][18][21]. - It identifies several key sectors such as electronics, computing, metals, communications, machinery, military, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals as critical areas for investment and development [10][12][21]. Summary by Relevant Sections Strategy: Constructing a Self-Reliant Research Framework - The report establishes a multi-dimensional evaluation system to identify beneficiary industries and key stocks, focusing on both industry-level and individual stock-level analyses [10][31][36]. Electronics - The demand for core processors like GPU, CPU, and NPU is increasing, with significant investment opportunities in semiconductor manufacturing and packaging due to external technological restrictions [10][12]. Computing - The computing sector is experiencing growth driven by AI applications, with a broad market potential for domestic products as the industry transitions from usable to highly functional [10][12]. Metals - The military sector's focus on domestic production of titanium and high-temperature alloys is highlighted, with expectations for rapid growth in these materials due to increasing demand [11][12]. Communications - The strategic importance of satellite internet has been underscored, particularly in light of recent geopolitical events, indicating a significant opportunity for development in this area [11][12]. Machinery - The report notes a substantial market space for high-end equipment, with a low current domestic production rate, suggesting significant potential for domestic replacements [11][12]. Military - The global commercial aerospace engine market is projected to exceed 650 billion annually, with China expected to capture a significant share, emphasizing the need for independent development in this sector [11][12]. Pharmaceuticals - The life sciences sector is identified as a key area for domestic innovation, particularly in medical instruments and consumables, driven by supply chain security concerns [12][21]. Chemicals - The report highlights the urgency for domestic alternatives in certain chemical sub-industries, particularly in semiconductor materials, due to high technical barriers and low current domestic production rates [12][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the bond - allocation strategies of banks from the perspective of the three - account classification of bank financial investments. It finds that in a low - interest - rate environment, banks reduce the proportion of the allocation portfolio and increase the proportion of the trading portfolio, especially OCI - type assets that have less impact on the income statement. It also suggests paying attention to the marginal changes in the behavior of state - owned large - scale banks, as their investment scale is large and their behavioral changes have a significant impact on the bond market [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bank as an Important Participant in the Bond Market - The report uses 135 banks as samples, with a representativeness of 93.5% in terms of total assets. Bank self - operated investment in the asset side has been increasing marginally since 2022, with a significant increase in 2024. In April 2025, commercial banks' bond custody accounted for 53%, making them the largest custody institution type. The self - operated investment of sample banks at the end of 2024 was 106.8 trillion yuan, directly participating in the bond market through bond allocation and indirectly through outsourcing [23][26][29]. 3.2 Performance Contribution Driving Banks to Increase Self - Operated Investment Proportion - Among different types of banks, state - owned large - scale banks had the most obvious increase in the proportion of self - operated investment in the asset side in 2024. From the perspective of asset allocation, banks' asset allocation is structurally inclined to self - operated investment during the recovery of effective credit demand. From the perspective of performance management, due to the pressure on net interest margins and the reduction of intermediate business fees, banks have a strong demand to increase the performance contribution of self - operated investment [10][35]. 3.3 Accounting Classification and Performance Impact of Bank Self - Operated Investment 3.3.1 Account Classification of Bank Self - Operated Investment - Based on the business model and contract cash - flow characteristics of financial assets, bank self - operated investment is classified into three types of accounts in accounting: AC, OCI, and TPL. AC corresponds to bond investment, OCI corresponds to other bond investments and other equity instrument investments, and TPL corresponds to trading financial assets. Based on the measurement methods and trading constraints of the three types of accounts, bank self - operated investment can be divided into the allocation portfolio (AC - type assets) and the trading portfolio (OCI and TPL - type assets) [11][50]. 3.3.2 Impact of Three Accounts on the Bank's Income Statement - TPL - type assets' fair - value fluctuations and coupon income are immediately reflected in the income statement. The coupon income of OCI and AC - type assets is included in the interest income in the income statement, and the capital gains from disposal are included in the investment income. During the holding period, the fair - value fluctuations of OCI - type assets are reflected in other comprehensive income, affecting the bank's capital adequacy ratio, while AC - type assets are not measured at fair value during the holding period [11]. 3.3.3 Differences in the Structure of Three Accounts among Different Types of Banks - At the end of 2024, state - owned large - scale banks had the highest proportion of AC accounts among the four types of banks, rural commercial banks had the highest proportion of OCI - type assets, and joint - stock banks and city commercial banks had a relatively high proportion of TPL accounts [11]. 3.4 Reflection of the Three - Account Structure on Bank Self - Operated Investment Strategies 3.4.1 Reducing the Allocation Portfolio and Expanding the Trading Portfolio in a Low - Interest - Rate Environment - In a low - interest - rate environment, banks gradually reduce the proportion of AC accounts in self - operated investment to reduce passive holding risks. They expand the trading portfolio to capture spread - earning opportunities in market fluctuations. Four types of banks all show the characteristics of compressing the TPL account and increasing the OCI account proportion [75]. 3.4.2 Realizing Floating Profits by Disposing of Assets in AC and OCI Accounts - Banks can sell bonds in OCI or AC accounts when profits are under pressure to realize floating profits and support current performance. In 2024, the investment income from disposing of OCI and AC account assets contributed 2.2% to the current operating income of listed banks [81]. 3.5 Attention to the Changes in the Self - Operated Investment Strategies of State - Owned Large - Scale Banks - Since 2024, the proportion of the trading portfolio of state - owned large - scale banks has been gradually increasing. Their trading can increase market consensus, reduce the volatility of regular trading days in the bond market, but may lead to large fluctuations in the bond market after unexpected events. In the long run, it is beneficial for state - owned large - scale banks to play a greater role in guiding the reasonable pricing of the bond market [97][98].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [11]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 2.02% increase in the 22nd week of 2025, ranking 4th among major industries, while it has declined 2.78% since the beginning of the year, ranking 24th [2][6]. - Nvidia's FY26Q1 results showed strong growth in its data center business, with revenues of $44.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 69.2%, indicating robust demand for AI and computing power [7]. - IDC predicts that China's intelligent computing power will reach 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025, growing 43% year-on-year, and will double by 2026 [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has launched the "Computing Power Interconnection Action Plan," aiming for a comprehensive standardization of computing power interconnectivity by 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 22nd week of 2025, the communication sector increased by 2.02%, with notable stock performances from companies like Haige Communication (+15.8%) and Wuhan Fangu (+14.7%) [6]. Company Performance - Nvidia's data center revenue reached $39.11 billion in FY26Q1, a 73.3% increase year-on-year, driven by strong AI inference demand [7]. - The report highlights significant growth in intelligent computing power, with a forecasted increase to 1,460.3 EFLOPS by 2026 [8]. Policy Developments - The MIIT's action plan aims to establish a complete set of standards for computing power interconnectivity by 2026, enhancing the infrastructure for intelligent computing [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as companies in the optical module and domestic computing sectors [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may show an inverted "N" shape. Before the introduction of pro - growth policies, bond yields will generally continue to decline in a volatile manner. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds when the yield is between 1.65% - 1.7%, and also pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short - term inter - bank certificates of deposit [2][6][26]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Volatility for a Long Time - The typical feature of the bond market this year is to quickly complete the market trend and then have a long - term narrow - range oscillation. After an unexpected event occurs, the bond market will quickly complete the market trend again. In this market, it is difficult to trade interest - rate bonds, and the mainstream way to make money in the bond market is to explore credit - based coupon assets [5][12]. - The bond market is oscillating because its valuation is relatively high, making it difficult to price general positive information. Since 2020, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 3.15% at the beginning of 2020 to 1.67% on May 30 this year, a cumulative decline of more than 140bps. From the perspective of stock - bond attractiveness, as of May this year, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 3.5%, at a historical high, while the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.7%, which is not conducive to the trend - based inflow of funds into the bond market [5][16]. 3.2 Possible Marginal Changes in the Bond Market - **Repeated Sino - US trade frictions**: The bond market will gradually become desensitized to trade - friction information. Even if the Sino - US trade friction is completely eased, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.7% may be close to the upper limit of the current adjustment [5][6][19]. - **Price changes of short - term funds and bond varieties**: The allocation cost - effectiveness of inter - bank certificates of deposit with a yield above 1.7% may have emerged. The upward constraint on capital prices is the need for a relatively loose liquidity environment to maintain asset - price expectations and confidence stability. The downward constraint is the concern about "fund idling". The current capital price is close to the upper limit of the range, and the allocation value of inter - bank certificates of deposit with an interest rate above 1.7% has emerged [6][21][23]. - **The bond market is not very sensitive to fundamental changes**: For a product with a relatively high valuation, greater marginal changes in the fundamentals are required to drive its valuation up. The fundamentals have been relatively resilient this year, so the bond market is not sensitive to them. Pro - growth policies will mainly focus on domestic fundamental changes, and bond yields will first decline and then rebound [6][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including 贝壳-W, 华润置地, 江苏金租, 杭州银行, 宁德时代, 奥普特, 菲利华, 思摩尔国际, 瀚蓝环境, and 广电计量 [47][50]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a rebound in manufacturing PMI, indicating improved supply and demand, but price pressures continue to affect profitability [12][13]. - In the real estate sector, there is a focus on stable cash flow and high dividend yields amidst ongoing policy adjustments [14]. - Non-bank financial institutions are expected to benefit from policy optimizations that may lower funding costs [22]. - The banking sector is recommended for active public fund allocation, particularly favoring quality city commercial banks [24]. - The electric new energy sector is witnessing a bottoming out, with attention on new technological developments [28]. - The machinery sector is poised to benefit from AI applications, particularly in industrial inspection [30]. - The military industry is expected to see growth driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and changes in military trade dynamics [34]. - The light industry is focusing on new consumer trends and low valuation recovery [36]. - Environmental protection sectors are highlighted for investment opportunities in waste management and sanitation [41][43]. Summary by Sections Macro Analysis - Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, driven by improved supply and demand dynamics [12]. - New export orders increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating stronger export demand [12]. - Price indices for raw materials and factory outputs continue to decline, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures [13]. Real Estate - The report emphasizes the need for stable cash flow and high dividend yields in real estate investments, particularly in low-valuation state-owned enterprises and quality property firms [14][15][20]. Non-Bank Financials - The report notes a targeted reserve requirement reduction for financial leasing companies, which is expected to lower funding costs and enhance liquidity [22][23]. Banking - City commercial banks are highlighted as key beneficiaries of institutional fund allocations, with expectations of market share gains [24][25][27]. Electric New Energy - The report identifies a bottoming out in the electric new energy sector, with a focus on solar, storage, and wind energy technologies [28][29]. Machinery - AI applications are expected to enhance industrial inspection processes, particularly in the 3C sector [30][32]. Military - The military sector is projected to grow due to the ongoing development of new equipment and military trade opportunities [34][35]. Light Industry - New consumer trends in light industry, particularly in tobacco and IP derivatives, are expected to drive growth [36][37][40]. Environmental Protection - Investment opportunities in waste management and sanitation are highlighted, with a focus on electric and intelligent equipment [41][43][45].