证券研究报告 AI应用，御风而上 ——计算机行业2025二季度度策略 行业评级：看好 2025年03月12日 | 分析师 | 刘雯蜀 | 分析师 | 童非 | 分析师 | 郑毅 | 分析师 | 刘静一 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号 | s1230523020002 | 证书编号 | s1230524050005 | 证书编号 | s1230524070002 | 证书编号 | s1230523070005 | | 分析师 | 陶韫琦 | 分析师 | 叶光亮 | 研究助理 | 张致远 | | | | 证书编号 | s1230524090010 | 证书编号 | s1230524080010 | | | | | 核心观点 ◼ 2025Q1行情回顾 2 ➢ 2025年计算机行业涨幅为24.41%（截至3月11日），处于全行业第二，领涨TMT板块：计算机（24.41%）>传媒（13.70%）>电子 （12.58%）>通信（4.54%），应用端涨幅高于算力基础设施。 ➢ 截至3月07日，申万计算机行业PE(TTM)为83X，处于过去 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题研究 | 中国策略 为何深证红利指数近期表现更好？ ——策略专题报告 核心观点 截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，A 股对标红利 ETF 的共 16 只红利指数中，深证红利指数开 年以来涨幅最高，共上涨 5.78%，相对涨幅最低的上证国企红利指数超额达到 5.83%。 从风格及行业构成来看，深证红利指数在消费风格占比较高，且在家电、食品饮料、 医药、电子、银行等行业占比较高；而涨幅靠后的如上证国企红利和红利低波指数在 金融和周期风格占比较高，行业则集中在银行、煤炭、交通运输、钢铁。 ❑ 深证红利指数为开年以来涨幅最高红利指数，相对涨幅最低红利指数超额 5.8% 截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，在场内共 1110 只 ETF 基金中，红利 ETF 共 42 只，共 对标 23 个指数，其中对标港股指数 7 只，对标 A 股指数 16 只。尽管同是红利 指数，不同红利指数由于其成分股构成及权重不同，开年以来的涨幅也相差各 异，其中，深证红利指数 2025 年 2 月 4 日至今涨幅最高，共上涨 5.78%，相对 沪深 300 超额 0.81%，相对 Wind 全 A 超额-3. ...

证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略 | 汽车 关注 AI 具身应用-智驾和机器人的投资机会 ——汽车行业二季度策略 投资要点 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：刘巍 执业证书号：S1230524040001 liuwei03@stocke.com.cn 分析师：郑景毅 执业证书号：S1230523060001 zhengjingyi@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：张逸辰 zhangyichen@stocke.com.cn http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ DeepSeek 横空出世，有望进一步降低车企推行智驾的算力和研发门槛、提升算 法效果。DeepSeek 通过独特的架构设计（混合专家架构 MoE）显著降低了内存 占用和计算开销。从 2 月开始多家车企宣布接入 DeepSeek，云端模型和座舱交 互方面有望深度受益。云端模型方面，DeepSeek 可以用在训练前生成数据、降 低标注成本；车端模型方面，DeepSeek 通过完善教师模型，蒸馏出学生模型， 从而降低算力要求，实现单颗 Orin ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 公用事业 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 16 日 绿电直供凸显环境属性，清洁能源迎来专项资金 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 本周，公用事业板块指数上涨 2.19%，涨跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 11，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.61%；本周，环保板块指数上涨 2.53%，涨跌幅在 32 个 申万一级行业中排名第 9，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.94%。截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，公 用事业（申万）PE（TTM）为 16.87 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍；环保（申万）PE （TTM）为 21.60 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍。 ❑ 行业重要动态 ❑ 核心观点与投资建议 ❑ 公用事业行业，本周重点关注个股组合：佛燃能源+东方电子+中国核电。 A.绿电运营板块。去年以来政策推动典型高耗能行业参与绿证绿电交易，绿电环 境价值有望进一步兑现；此外新能源全面入市有望带动电价下行，叠加电网发债 持续推进下绿电企业国补欠补问题有望改善。考虑到当前绿电估值已处价值洼地， 尤其是港股绿电普遍处于破净状态，后续可进一步关注新能源大基地 ...

Market Outlook - The "spring offensive" initiated on January 13, 2025, is expected to continue, targeting the upper range of the previous market fluctuations, with a potential decisive moment in May[4] - The GDP growth target remains around 5%, indicating a proactive and pragmatic macro policy approach[12] Style Rotation - Mid-cap value and growth stocks are leading in market capitalization style, indicating a concentration in mid-cap stocks[5] - The valuation style is expected to be balanced, with a shift towards value stocks as growth style advantages may weaken[5] Industry Focus - Key sectors to watch include food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, real estate, and new energy, benefiting from policy guidance and significant calendar effects[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected international geopolitical tensions and domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations[7] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on mid-cap stocks and consumer sectors, with a balanced valuation approach[5][6]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 本周，公用事业板块指数上涨 2.19%，涨跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 11，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.61%；本周，环保板块指数上涨 2.53%，涨跌幅在 32 个 申万一级行业中排名第 9，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.94%。截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，公 用事业（申万）PE（TTM）为 16.87 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍；环保（申万）PE （TTM）为 21.60 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍。 ❑ 行业重要动态 ❑ 核心观点与投资建议 ❑ 公用事业行业，本周重点关注个股组合：佛燃能源+东方电子+中国核电。 绿电直供凸显环境属性，清洁能源迎来专项资金 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 A.绿电运营板块。去年以来政策推动典型高耗能行业参与绿证绿电交易，绿电环 境价值有望进一步兑现；此外新能源全面入市有望带动电价下行，叠加电网发债 持续推进下绿电企业国补欠补问题有望改善。考虑到当前绿电估值已处价值洼地， 尤其是港股绿电普遍处于破净状态，后续可进一步关注新能源大基地项目落地， 标的包括受益于福建海风竞配落地的中闽能源（ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $8.2 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $390 million, up 43% year-on-year. The manufacturing segment generated $5.6 billion in revenue, an 11% increase year-on-year, while the retail segment saw a revenue decline of 10% to $2.6 billion [1][5] - Manufacturing business orders are robust, with a significant increase in shipments and a narrowing decline in average selling price (ASP). The ASP for 2024 was $20.3, down 5% year-on-year, while shipments reached 260 million pairs, a 17% increase [2][5] - The retail business is showing signs of improvement, with a smaller revenue decline in Q4 and effective cost management strategies leading to stable profit margins. Online retail revenue grew by 16%, with Douyin sales doubling year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $8.2 billion and a net profit of $390 million. The manufacturing segment contributed $5.6 billion, while the retail segment accounted for $2.6 billion [1][5] - In Q4 alone, the company reported a revenue of $2.1 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 52% to $70 million due to increased operational costs and tax disputes [1][3] Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment's revenue for 2024 was $5.6 billion, with a shipment volume of 260 million pairs, reflecting a 17% increase. The ASP remained stable at $20.3 [2][5] - The manufacturing gross margin was 19.9%, with a capacity utilization rate of 93%. However, Q4 gross margin was pressured due to increased overtime and outsourcing costs, alongside a tax dispute in Indonesia [3][5] Retail Business - The retail segment's revenue for 2024 was $2.6 billion, down 10% year-on-year, but the decline in Q4 was only 2%. The company managed to improve its gross margin to 34.2% through effective discount management [4][5] - The number of offline stores decreased to 3,448, with same-store sales down 17.1%. However, online sales showed resilience, particularly on platforms like Douyin [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.4 billion, $9.0 billion, and $9.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $454 million, $498 million, and $529 million [5][12] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 6.0, 5.5, and 5.2, with a dividend payout ratio of 69% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 10% [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a strong annual performance for 2024, with total revenue of 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.15 billion, also up 19.5%. The cash dividend payout ratio increased to 45% [1][6] - The main brand, 361°, continues to lead the adult apparel segment with double-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases. The footwear segment generated revenue of 4.29 billion, up 22.1%, while the apparel segment reached 3.09 billion, up 15.1% [2] - The children's apparel segment also showed strong growth, with revenue of 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The footwear category contributed 1.1 billion, up 17.5%, while the apparel category reached 1.21 billion, up 22.6% [3][4] - E-commerce sales remained active, totaling 2.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, accounting for 25.9% of total sales. The company ranked among the top five footwear brands during major sales events [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth of 13% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 11% in 2027, reaching 11.4 billion, 12.7 billion, and 14.2 billion respectively. Net profit is expected to grow by 14% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027, reaching 1.38 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.65 billion respectively [6][12] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.9, 6.1, and 5.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for a leading player in the sportswear market [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a strong annual growth for 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.15 billion, also up by 19.5%. The cash dividend payout ratio increased to 45% [1] - The main brand, 361°, continues to lead the adult apparel segment with double-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases. Footwear revenue reached 4.29 billion, up 22.1%, while apparel revenue was 3.09 billion, up 15.1% [2] - The children's clothing segment also showed strong growth, with revenue of 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. Footwear sales in this category reached 1.1 billion, up 17.5% [3] - E-commerce sales remained active, totaling 2.61 billion, a 12.2% increase, with a significant contribution from differentiated products [5] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 13% in 2025, reaching 11.4 billion, and net profit growth of 14% to 1.38 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 6.9 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10,073.5 million, a 19.59% increase, and net profit of 1,148.6 million, a 19.47% increase. The projected revenue for 2025 is 11,405.9 million, with a growth rate of 13.23% [12] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 41.53%, with net profit margin at 11.84% [13] Product and Market Development - The company continues to innovate with new product lines, including advanced technology footwear and expanding its children's product line to cover ages up to 16 [4] - The company has increased its offline retail presence, with 5,750 stores and a focus on enhancing customer experience through new retail formats [2] E-commerce and Sales Channels - E-commerce sales accounted for 25.9% of total sales, with significant growth during promotional events, such as a 99% increase during the 618 shopping festival [5] Future Outlook - The company is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 12,737.8 million in 2026 and 14,191.4 million in 2027, alongside net profits of 1,470.7 million and 1,646.9 million respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of HKD 135.9 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.8%. The Non-GAAP net profit reached HKD 57.7 billion, up 26.2% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue surged by 86.8% year-on-year and 29.0% quarter-on-quarter, while Non-GAAP net profit doubled, increasing by 105.4% year-on-year and 39.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, brokerage commission and fee income reached HKD 20.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 127.6%, driven by a 201.7% rise in transaction volume to HKD 2.89 trillion. The U.S. stock trading volume was HKD 2.08 trillion. Interest income also grew by 51.8% to HKD 20.2 billion, with margin financing balance increasing by 53.7% to HKD 50.9 billion [2]. Customer Acquisition and Marketing - The company saw a significant increase in marketing expenses, with sales expenses rising by 154.2% to HKD 4.64 billion, attributed to a substantial growth in new deposit customers. The total number of paid customers grew by 41% to 2.4 million, with new paid users in Q4 2024 increasing by 39% year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company anticipates Non-GAAP net profit growth rates of 22%, 21%, and 17% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The expected earnings per ADS in USD are projected to be 6.50, 7.88, and 9.25 for the same years, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16.54, 13.65, and 11.63 [5][7].