Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 13.26 CNY per share, implying a 30% upside from the current price [5] Core Views - SPD Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 23.3% YoY in 2024, continuing the high growth trend from the previous quarters [1][2] - Revenue declined by 1.5% YoY in 2024, but improved by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first three quarters, driven by improved liability costs and stabilized interest margins [2] - Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 1.36% at the end of 2024, down by 2 basis points from the end of Q3, indicating better asset quality [1][4] - Provision coverage ratio increased to 187% at the end of 2024, up by 7 percentage points from the end of Q3, reflecting strengthened risk resilience [1][4] Financial Performance - Total assets grew by 5% YoY at the end of 2024, with a 0.5% increase from the end of Q3, showing steady expansion [3] - Net interest income is expected to grow by 4.02% in 2025, while net fee income is projected to remain flat [11] - ROAE (Return on Average Equity) is forecasted to increase from 6.34% in 2024 to 6.56% in 2026, indicating improved profitability [11] Valuation and Forecast - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders to grow by 5.69% in 2025 and 6.32% in 2026 [5] - Book value per share (BPS) is projected to increase from 22.36 CNY in 2024 to 24.28 CNY in 2026 [5] - Current price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 0.46x for 2024, with a target P/B of 0.59x, suggesting significant undervaluation [5] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - NPL ratio is expected to further decline to 1.30% by 2026, with a provision coverage ratio maintained at around 186% [11] - Capital adequacy ratio is projected to remain strong, with a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.49% in 2024 and 11.17% in 2026 [11]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通信设备 亿联网络(300628) 报告日期：2025 年 01 月 16 日 ——亿联网络 2024 年业绩预告点评 投资要点 ❑ 24Q4 经营收入、利润均超预期 公司发布 2024 年业绩预告。2024 年，公司预计实现收入 55.2 至 57.3 亿元，同比 增长 27%至 32%；归母净利润 26.1 至 27.1 亿元，同比增长 30%至 35%；扣非后 归母净利润 24.0 至 24.9 亿元，同比增长 34%至 39%。 以业绩预告中值计算，24Q4 公司预计实现收入 15.2 亿元，环比+5%，同比增长 35%；归母净利润 6.0 亿元，同比增长 51%。分季度来看，24Q1-Q4 公司收入增 速分别为 31%、30%、22%、35%；归母净利润增速分别为 34%、31%、20%、 51%。我们认为，24Q4 美元升值幅度较大，公司主要收入来自于欧美地区，或 形成较多的汇兑收益。 ❑ 云办公终端有望进入成长快车道 公司云办公终端业务趋势向好，各季度环比增速持续提升。从前三季度来看，云 办公终端回归至增速最高的状态，其次为会议产品和桌面通信终端。我们认为， 目前 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating for the light manufacturing sector is **Positive (Maintained)** [2] Core Views - The report highlights two main investment themes for the light manufacturing sector in 2024: **replacement demand** and **self-indulgence consumption** [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of **home furnishing subsidies** and their impact on sales, with 2024 home renovation subsidies driving sales of nearly 60 million products, totaling approximately 120 billion RMB [2] - The report also discusses the **paper industry**, noting a bottoming out of pulp prices in Q4 2024 and a potential rebound in Q1 2025, which could support paper prices [2] - In the **essential consumer goods** sector, the report points out that despite overall weak consumption, companies with strong product logic and high-margin products are expected to perform well [2] - The **packaging sector** is expected to benefit from 3C subsidies and supply chain integration, with companies like Yuto Packaging Technology showing positive growth in Q4 2024 [2] - The **export sector** is expected to see strong performance in Q4 2024 due to favorable exchange rates, with significant contributions from categories like functional sofas, thermos cups, outdoor products, and pet supplies [2][3] - The **pet industry** is highlighted for its robust domestic growth, with Q4 2024 online sales reaching 8.3 billion RMB, a 10% YoY increase, and strong performance from leading companies like Guabi Pet and Zhongchong [5] - The **toy industry** is noted for its strong domestic demand and potential for overseas expansion, with companies like Pop Mart and Blue Zoo expected to benefit from the growing trend of adult toy consumption [5] Sector-Specific Summaries Home Furnishing - **Soft furniture** companies like Kuka Home, Sleemon, and DeRUCCI are expected to achieve positive revenue growth in Q4 2024 due to shorter delivery cycles [2] - **Custom furniture** companies such as Oppein, Sophia, and ZBOM are expected to face revenue pressure in Q4 2024 but may see a turnaround in Q1 2025 [2] Paper Industry - **Pulp prices** bottomed out in Q4 2024, with a potential rebound in Q1 2025 due to supply-side maintenance shutdowns [2] - Companies like **Xianhe Co**, **Huawang Technology**, and **Sun Paper** are recommended for their strong profitability and management advantages [2] Essential Consumer Goods - Despite weak overall consumption, companies like **Baiya** and **Dencare Oral** are expected to achieve strong growth through high-margin products and online sales channels [2] Packaging - **Yuto Packaging Technology** is expected to maintain positive growth in Q4 2024, driven by 3C subsidies [2] - **Plastic packaging** companies like **Yongxin** are expected to see improved profitability due to lower crude oil prices [2] - **Metal packaging** companies like **ORG Packaging** are expected to stabilize profits due to improved industry structure and stable raw material prices [2] Export Sector - **Functional sofas**, **thermos cups**, **outdoor products**, and **pet supplies** are expected to show strong performance in Q4 2024, driven by favorable exchange rates and holiday demand [2][3] Pet Industry - Domestic sales in the pet industry grew by 10% YoY in Q4 2024, with leading companies like **Guabi Pet** and **Zhongchong** showing strong growth [5] Toy Industry - The domestic toy industry is experiencing strong demand, with companies like **Pop Mart** and **Blue Zoo** expected to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [5] Key Company Performance - **Oppein**: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 52.85 billion RMB, down 15% YoY, but with a potential turnaround in Q1 2025 [6] - **Kuka Home**: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 53.81 billion RMB, up 6% YoY [6] - **Yuto Packaging Technology**: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 48.14 billion RMB, up 9% YoY [6] - **Sun Paper**: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 100 billion RMB, down 3% YoY, but with a potential rebound in Q1 2025 [6] - **Pop Mart**: Expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities [5]

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [4] Core Views - The real estate sector is expected to see a narrowing decline in key metrics such as sales area, sales value, new construction starts, and completion area in 2025 [1] - Policy implementation, particularly around land and existing housing acquisitions, is expected to drive valuation recovery in the sector [1] - The risk of developer defaults in 2025 is considered manageable, with potential short-term impacts on sector valuation [2] - Seasonal sales peaks and policy support could lead to better-than-expected sales performance, supporting valuation recovery [3] Sector Opportunities - The first half of 2025 is expected to offer investment opportunities driven by policy support and seasonal sales peaks, particularly around the "Little Spring" period [5] - Policy impact is expected to outweigh fundamental factors in driving sector valuation in the first half of 2025 [6] - Companies related to urban village development and acquisitions are recommended for attention [6] - Consumer-focused real estate companies and high-quality developers are also highlighted as potential investment targets [6][8] Key Companies to Watch - Urban village-related companies: Chengjian Development, ChengTou Holding [8] - Consumer + real estate companies: Seazen Holdings, Longfor Group, China Resources Land [8] - High-quality developers: China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, Binjiang Group [8]

Industry Overview - The penetration rate of plug-in hybrid (including range-extended) models has become the main driver of new energy vehicle adoption, with the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 43.9% from January to November 2024, and is expected to exceed 45% for the full year [1][6] - The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to exceed 11 million units in 2024, with pure electric vehicles experiencing rapid growth from 4.8% in 2020 to 21.3% in 2022, driven by companies like Tesla and BYD [1][6] - Plug-in hybrid (including range-extended) models have seen a significant increase in penetration, rising from 6.3% in 2022 to 18.5%, becoming the main force in new energy vehicle penetration, led by models from BYD, Li Auto, and AITO [1][6] Market Share of Mainstream Domestic Brands - BYD sold 3.741 million vehicles from January to November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with a market share of 15.4% [2][8] - Chery sold 2.225 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, with a market share of 9.2% [2][8] - Geely sold 1.967 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, with a market share of 8.1% [2][8] Key Companies and Their Performance Tuopu Group - Revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 were 19.352 billion yuan and 2.234 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.75% and 39.89% [11] - The company has formed a platform-based enterprise in the intelligent electric vehicle sector, partnering with major automakers like Geely, Huawei, Li Auto, and an innovative US automaker [11] - The company's Mexico industrial park is progressing smoothly, with a planned production capacity of 3.3 million chassis units by 2025 [11] Longsheng Technology - The company's EGR business achieved revenue of 350 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%, with a gross margin of 24.47% [13] - The company is expanding into the aerospace and drone precision parts sector, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Galaxy Aerospace [14] Jingda Co., Ltd. - The company's product sales volume in the first half of 2024 was 167,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.51%, with special electromagnetic wire products accounting for 133,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.12% [17] Haoneng Co., Ltd. - The company's main business includes automotive transmission system components and aerospace parts, with steady growth in synchronizer business and increasing production of differentials [18] - The company is actively investing in reducers, with a planned investment of 1 billion yuan in the first phase, targeting the new energy vehicle reducer market [18] Xinquan Co., Ltd. - The company's main business includes instrument panels and bumpers, with a focus on expanding its product categories and accelerating its global market presence [20] - The company has established subsidiaries in Malaysia, Mexico, the US, and Slovakia, and is further expanding into the European market [22] Xingyu Co., Ltd. - The company is a leading domestic automotive lighting company, entering a new cycle of intelligent growth, with increasing adoption of high-value intelligent lighting products like ADB and DLP [23] - The company is expanding overseas, entering the supply chain of mid-to-high-end European automotive brands, with a production capacity of 5.7 million units in its Serbia factory [23]

Group 1: Environmental Information Disclosure Initiatives - The "National Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Database" was officially launched to support a unified carbon emission accounting system, aiding in the achievement of carbon peak and neutrality goals[9] - The average carbon emission factor for electricity in China decreased by 3.63% from 0.5568 kgCO2/kWh in 2021 to 0.5366 kgCO2/kWh in 2022, primarily due to rapid development of non-fossil energy sources[37] - The "Corporate Sustainable Disclosure Guidelines - Basic Guidelines (Trial)" was released, marking the beginning of a unified sustainable disclosure system in China[44] Group 2: Local Government Initiatives - Shanghai's "Environmental Information Disclosure Implementation Plan (Trial)" aims to guide small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in environmental information disclosure starting in 2025, with further expansion in 2026[54] - The disclosure framework includes six modules and 13 dimensions, enhancing the quality of ESG information for SMEs[55] - The plan is expected to serve as a model, promoting broader environmental information disclosure across the country[56] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Economic recovery is slower than expected, potentially impacting corporate ESG investments and consumer focus on ESG values[58] - The implementation of ESG-related policies may lag, affecting the standardization of corporate ESG practices and investor confidence[58] - Market sentiment and preferences are volatile, posing risks to the sustainability of ESG themes and potential capital withdrawal[58]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the social services industry [5] Core Views - Domestic tourism has shown strong recovery, with Q2/Q3 2024 tourist numbers reaching 100.5%/99.2% of 2019 levels and tourism revenue recovering to 114.4%/103.9% of 2019 levels [2] - Cross-border tourism has rebounded rapidly, with Q3 2024 cross-border trips reaching 95% of 2019 levels, expected to maintain double-digit growth in Q4 [2] - Offline retail is expected to recover in Q4, with CPI entering an upward trend and policy support through increased consumer vouchers [6] - The catering and hotel industry faces demand-side challenges, with hotel supply expansion continuing and RevPAR recovery declining [8] - Local life services show strong growth potential, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption, and Meituan maintaining its core advantage [10][11] - Comprehensive e-commerce experiences moderate recovery in Q4, driven by national subsidies and improved supply-side quality [14] Tourism Sector - Domestic tourism shows diversified and sinking market trends, with county-level tourism growing faster than tier 1-2 cities [2] - Ice and snow tourism enters peak season, with related searches on Tongcheng Travel platform increasing over 3 times QoQ [3] - Traditional scenic spots maintain stable performance, while some high-end consumption-oriented spots face pressure [3] Offline Retail - Offline retail faces pressure from online competition, with physical online retail growing 6.8% YoY compared to 3.5% for overall retail [4] - New offline formats and experience upgrades drive transformation, with successful store renovations leading to increased traffic and sales [6] - Key players like Yonghui Superstores and Chongqing Department Store show signs of improvement through reforms and store adjustments [7] Catering and Hotel Industry - Hotel supply continues to expand, reaching 112% of 2019 levels by November 2024 [8] - Key players like Jinjiang Hotels and BTG Hotels focus on brand optimization and efficiency improvement [9] Local Life Services - Meituan maintains strong growth in food delivery and local services, with rapid expansion in lower-tier cities [12] - Dingdong Maicai shows strong performance, with Q3 2024 GMV growing 28.3% YoY and achieving 8 consecutive quarters of non-GAAP profitability [13] E-commerce Sector - Comprehensive e-commerce experiences moderate recovery in Q4, with national subsidies driving growth in home appliances and other categories [14] - Alibaba shows marginal improvement in FY25Q2, with Taotao GMV growth and stable monetization rates [15] - JD.com exceeds expectations in Q3 2024, with revenue growing 5.1% YoY and non-GAAP net profit increasing 23.9% [16] - Pinduoduo faces challenges in Q3 2024, with revenue and profit below expectations, but continues to optimize its supply side [16]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the machinery industry [6] Core Views Main Theme 1: Cyclical Reversal - **Construction Machinery**: Strengthening reversal logic with domestic and overseas resonance [1] - **Shipbuilding**: Rising prosperity and improving profitability [1] - **Industrial Gas**: Historical low gas prices, approaching a turning point [1] - **Inspection and Testing**: Gradual demand improvement, potential upward inflection [1] - **Rail Transit Equipment**: Steady progress in railway fixed asset investment, sustained prosperity [1] - **Photovoltaic Equipment**: Bottoming out, expecting an industry inflection [1] - **Wind Power Equipment**: 2025 as a major year for wind power installation, focusing on offshore wind and overseas markets [1] - **Lithium Battery Equipment**: Bottoming out, rising external demand, on the verge of new technology breakthroughs [1] - **Machine Tools and Cutting Tools**: Cyclical recovery, domestic substitution, overseas expansion, and new fields [1] Main Theme 2: Growth Rising - **Semiconductor Equipment**: Advanced capacity expansion, accelerating domestic production [2] - **Humanoid Robots**: Rapid development, both domestic and international progress [2] - **Low-Altitude Economy**: Beginning to take off [2] Main Theme 3: Global Supply - **Export Chain**: Inventory disturbances resolved, interest rate cuts to drive recovery [3] - **Oilfield Services Equipment**: Continued prosperity, focusing on offshore and overseas markets [3] Sub-Sector Performance Review and Outlook - **Shipbuilding**: Profitability gradually recovering, prosperity rising [3] - **Construction Machinery**: Significant improvement in profitability, top five manufacturers achieving positive profit growth [3] - **Export Chain**: Performance release expected in Q4 2024, continued prosperity in shipbuilding, industrial gas, and photovoltaic equipment bottoming out [3] Construction Machinery Outlook - **Overseas Market**: Recovery in Europe and the US, strong long-term demand from Belt and Road countries, with a market space exceeding $30 billion [4] - **Domestic Market**: New cycle for excavators, expected 12% growth in domestic sales in 2025, market concentration increasing [5] Humanoid Robots - **Industry Trends**: Transition from formation to expansion phase, with significant acceleration in industrialization [7] - **Key Players**: Tesla, NVIDIA, and Huawei making significant strides in humanoid robot development [7] - **Market Potential**: Expected demand of 2.03 million units in the US and China by 2030, with a market space of approximately 318.5 billion yuan [8] Shipbuilding Industry - **Prosperity**: Rising ship prices due to supply constraints, with potential for significant growth in tanker and bulk carrier orders [9] - **Trends**: Shift towards high-end, large-scale, and dual-fuel ships, with Chinese shipyards dominating global orders [12] Export Chain - **Outlook**: Weak global demand but potential recovery, with US resilience, European bottoming, and emerging market growth [13] - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on industries benefiting from industrial transfer and those with capacity alignment with the US [14] Rail Transit Equipment - **Investment Outlook**: Continued prosperity, with high-speed rail and urban rail transit driving demand [16] - **Key Data**: Expected railway fixed asset investment of over 850 billion yuan in 2025, with high-speed rail accounting for 2000 km of new lines [16] Industrial Gas - **Outlook**: Bottoming out, with potential for recovery in 2025 [18] - **Electronic Special Gas**: Global semiconductor recovery expected in 2025, with domestic substitution and overseas expansion opportunities [18] Oilfield Services - **Outlook**: Continued prosperity driven by oil prices and energy security, with focus on offshore and overseas markets [20] - **Key Players**: Domestic companies like CNOOC and overseas players like Schlumberger dominating the market [22] Wind Power - **Outlook**: 2025 as a major year for wind power installation, focusing on offshore wind and overseas markets [23] - **Key Data**: Expected annual new installed capacity of 100 GW from 2024-2026, with offshore wind growing at a CAGR of 41% [25] Photovoltaic Equipment - **Outlook**: Industry bottoming out, with focus on new technologies and transformation into the semiconductor sector [27] - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on companies like **Dier Laser** and **Jingko Solar** [28] Lithium Battery Equipment - **Outlook**: Bottoming out, with potential for value recovery and new technology breakthroughs [29] - **Key Trends**: Overseas demand growing faster than domestic, with Chinese companies leading in global competitiveness [31] Inspection and Testing - **Outlook**: Long-term growth potential, with short-term focus on downstream recovery and technological innovation [33] - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on comprehensive testing leaders like **CTI** and **SGS** [35] Machine Tools and Cutting Tools - **Outlook**: Short-term recovery in manufacturing, long-term focus on product upgrades, domestic substitution, and overseas expansion [36] - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on leading companies like **Ouke Yibao** and **Haitian Precision** [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in its 2024 earnings preview, achieving revenue of 4.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, while operating profit reached 405 million, up 1.5%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 307 million, an increase of 3.0% [1] - The fourth quarter showed better-than-expected profit performance, with projected revenue of 1.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and net profit of 145 million, up 35.7% [1] - The company has successfully completed its equity incentive targets, exceeding the net profit target of 306 million before share payment expenses [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.4 billion in 2024, with a projected operating profit of 405 million and a net profit of 307 million [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show a revenue of 1.47 billion and an operating profit of 193 million, reflecting a 12.6% increase year-on-year [1] Brand Strategy - TeenieWeenie, the mid-to-high-end casual wear brand, is focusing on offline efficiency improvements and IP licensing business growth, which is expected to drive future profitability [2] - The company has been adjusting its direct store structure, closing low-efficiency stores and converting some to franchise models, resulting in a net reduction of 104 direct stores in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Store and Product Development - The company is refreshing its store formats to enhance customer traffic, focusing on core cities and shopping districts with new store types such as flagship and concept stores [3] - In 2024, the company launched a high-end line, T.W.R.C, to cater to urban commuting needs, further expanding its customer base [3] IP Licensing Growth - The IP licensing business, established in 2020, has shown significant growth, with a CAGR of 112% from 2021 to 2023, and revenue of 14.07 million in the first half of 2024, up 118% year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.4 billion, 4.63 billion, and 4.87 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be 307 million, 353 million, and 402 million [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a turnaround from a 3% decline in the first three quarters of 2024 [2][5] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to increase by 0.7% year-on-year, although this represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the growth rate in the first three quarters [2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 is forecasted to be 1.07%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the end of the third quarter [4] - The provision coverage ratio is expected to rise to 238% by the end of 2024, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Summary by Sections Profitability and Revenue - The company's net profit growth is attributed to improved credit impairment pressures due to the resolution of non-performing assets, while revenue growth is hindered by lower mortgage interest rates and industry-wide margin compression [2][5] Loan Performance - As of the end of Q4 2024, the loan balance is projected to decrease by 0.1% compared to Q3 2024, indicating weakened loan growth momentum due to proactive bill discounting and loan structure optimization [3] - The total amount of non-performing loans is expected to decline by 1% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting improved asset quality driven by the resolution of hidden debts [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025 and 2026 is a slight increase of 0.03% and 1.43% respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 39.29 and 41.81 yuan [5] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.50 for 2025 and 0.47 for 2026, with a target valuation of 0.70x PB for 2024, leading to a target price of 25.82 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 30% [5]