通信 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 4 月 20 日 强于大市 德国政策调整有望重振我 国移动通信出海产业链 2025 年 4 月德国政策删除"可信国家"条款，如果德国照此执行并可能有欧 盟其他国家跟进，将为中国厂商更多的参与欧洲基础设施建设提供可能。国 内 6G 产业发展同出海需求重振共同利好移动通信产业链，建议关注相关标 的。 支撑评级的要点 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ 宏观经济环境不稳定、地缘政治风险、德国政策具有不确定性。 相关研究报告 《三大运营商加速竞逐 AI赛道，转型红利已现》 20250331 《AI 系列跟踪专题报告》20250319 《商业航天地位凸显，大模型应用推动算力建 设》20250306 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 通信 证券分析师：庄宇 yu.zhuang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060004 证券分析师：袁妲 da.yuan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300524070003 证券分析师：吕然 (8610)66229185 ran.lv@bocichina.com ...

中银量化大类资产跟踪 A 股缩量回升，大盘红利占优 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股上涨，港股上涨，美股下跌，其他海外权益市场普遍上涨 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利：成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位；红利风 格拥挤度当前仍处于历史较低位置，近期快速下降。 小盘 vs大盘：小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度持续处于历史低位；大盘风格 近期拥挤度下降至历史较低位置。 微盘股 vs基金重仓：微盘股拥挤度持续处于历史极高分位；基金重仓拥 挤度近一年波动剧烈，当前处于历史适中位置，超额累计净值处于历史 低位。 资金面与动量/反转风格：当前资金总量处于长期下降阶段，反转较动量 长期占优，与经验一致。 金融工程| 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 4 月 20 日 A 股行情及成交热度 ◼ 本周领涨的行业为银行、非银行金融、煤炭；领跌的行业为电力设备及 新能源、农林牧渔、计算机。本周沪深 300、中证500、创业板指数成交 热度较上周下降。 A 股估值与股债性价比 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 ◼ 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为商贸零售、汽车、房地产， 居后的行业为医药、食品饮料、电力设备及新能源。 利率市场 ...

◼ 股票方面，A 股在上周大幅下跌后本周窄幅震荡。全周累计看，本周大盘和小盘股表 现较好，中盘股（中证 500、中证 1000）表现相对较差，上证 50 上涨 1.5%，微盘股 指数上涨 2.9%，中证 500 下跌 0.4%，中证 1000 下跌 0.5%。港股恒生指数上涨 2.3%， 但恒生科技指数下跌 0.3%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数 8 个下跌，23 个上 涨，其中银行、房地产和综合 3 个行业领涨，国防军工和农林牧渔领跌。周内看，受 周末美国对部分商品免征"对等关税"利好影响，周一（4 月 14 日）市场走强，当天 4550 家公司上涨，130 家公司涨停。周二至周五市场维持震荡走势，周三（4 月 16 日）发布一季度经济数据后市场有所走弱，尤其小盘股，以中证 2000 为例，当天中 午收盘时最多下跌超过 3%，但下午有所反弹。本周美股主要指数下跌，标普 500 下 跌 1.5%，纳斯达克 100 下跌 2.3%，受英伟达 H20 芯片被美国限制出口以及阿斯麦业 绩不及预期影响，本周科技七巨头指数下跌达到 5.2%。全球其他主要市场大部分上 涨，MSCI 发达市场（除美国）指数上涨 4 ...

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 4 月 20 日 相关研究报告 《美债与美国自然利率》20230402 《加息尾声的美元反弹》20230521 《关注货币活性下降》20230813 《美债利率上行遇阻》20231029 《如何看待美债利率回落》20231105 《中债收益率曲线已较为平坦》20231112 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《联储表态温和、降息预期高涨》20231214 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《长期利率或将度过快速下行阶段》20231231 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《利率债与房地产的均衡分析》20240331 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《美联储能否实现"软着陆"?》20240602 《当前影响利率的财政因素》20240630 《中性利率成为关键》20240922 《如何看中美长债对降息的反应》20240929 《美国经济看点：AI 浪潮与家庭债务》20241103 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《提前开始关税叫价？》20241207 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 4 月 20 日 策略周报 政策窗口期，交易内需及自主可控 市场进入"政治局会议"政策交易窗口期，市场短期上行动能趋缓但下行风险 可控，关注内需及自主可控主线，重视涨价逻辑。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S130052210000 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 4 月 20 日 其二，提振高技术产业投资。一季度我国高技术产业固定资产投资同比 增长 6.5%，延续正增长。大力提振高技术制造业投资，既是发展"新质 生产力"的要求，也有利于拓宽我国机电产品的国内市场，应对海外不确 定性。 ◼ 风险提示：海外衰退风险加剧；地缘关系不确定性加强。 一季度财政数据点评 广义财政发力延续前倾 3 月公共财政收入同比增幅有所收窄。社保就业支出是 3 月公共财政支出的 重点之一。土地收入不振对广义财政的掣肘仍较明显。 ◼ 3 月公共财政收入实现 16333.0 亿元，同比增长 0.3%；其中，当月税收 收入实现 11101.0 亿元，同比降幅实现 2.2%；非税收入规模为 5232.0 亿 元，同比增长 5.9 %。 3 月权重税种中，国内增值税对当月税收收入同比增速维持正贡献，当 月国内增值税同比增长 4.9%，拉动当月税收同比增速 2.2 个百分点。需 要注意的是，3 月社会消费品零售总额同比增速实现 5.9%，对消费端税 种表现有所支撑。3 月国内消费税收入同比增速实现 9.6%，拉动当月税 收同比增速 0.9个百分点。3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The report expresses optimism regarding the growth of photovoltaic demand in the US and emerging economies, with expectations for supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector [1] - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the wind power sector due to steady domestic and overseas demand, particularly in offshore projects [1] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors with expected profitability improvements, such as complete machines and forged components in the wind power sector [1] - The report notes the government's push for the development of smart connected new energy vehicles, which is expected to drive battery and material demand growth [1] - The report emphasizes the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries, with mass production anticipated by 2027, benefiting companies involved in batteries, materials, and equipment [1] - The report indicates that domestic electricity system reforms are likely to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related grid equipment [1] - The report mentions the continuous policy support for hydrogen energy development, suggesting a focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and hydrogen infrastructure [1] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic power equipment and new energy sector experienced a slight decline of 0.37% this week, contrasting with the overall market's performance [10] - The wind power sector saw a rise of 2.53%, while the photovoltaic sector faced a decline of 1.73% [13] - Key developments include the announcement of new solid-state battery applications by SAIC and the introduction of mandatory safety requirements for electric vehicle batteries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [24] Company Dynamics - The report highlights significant profit growth for companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Ningde Times, with year-on-year increases of 23.99% and 32.85% respectively [24] - It also notes the profit decline for Tianqi Lithium and Wenkang New Energy, indicating a shift in financial performance among companies in the sector [24]

Export Performance - In Q1 2025, China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $272.97 billion[5] - The contribution of exports to the US and EU markets was positive, with contributions of 0.654 and 0.724 percentage points respectively[6] - ASEAN and "Belt and Road" sample countries contributed positively to export growth, achieving contributions of 0.433 and 0.104 percentage points respectively[6] Product Contribution - Major products contributing to export growth included machinery and electrical products, with contributions of 0.374 and 0.117 percentage points to the US and EU respectively[6] - Textile products also showed positive contributions, with 0.016 and 0.117 percentage points for exports to ASEAN and the EU respectively[2] - Automotive exports maintained an advantage in ASEAN and EU markets, contributing 0.041 and 0.104 percentage points to export growth[7] Trade Surplus Analysis - The US and EU markets provided strong support for China's trade surplus, with contributions of 4.10 and 2.59 percentage points respectively[12] - ASEAN achieved a positive contribution of 0.78 percentage points to the trade surplus, while "Belt and Road" sample countries had a negative contribution of -1.63 percentage points[12] - The overall trade surplus was influenced by factors such as the end of the Spring Festival and export-driven strategies by foreign trade enterprises[13] Risks and Outlook - There are increasing risks of economic recession in the US and EU, alongside a complex international situation that may impact future trade dynamics[3] - The manufacturing new export orders index remains below the threshold, indicating weak expectations among foreign trade enterprises[13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - Under the "reciprocal tariff" policy, cross-border payments are expected to transition towards regionalization, accelerating the development of the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and highlighting the advantages of digital RMB settlements. The company, Nantian Information, possesses a digital RMB circulation service platform and has geographical advantages, which may lead to significant growth opportunities [4][9]. Financial Projections - The adjusted revenue forecasts for the company from 2024 to 2026 are projected to be RMB 9.87 billion, RMB 11.39 billion, and RMB 12.89 billion respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.56 billion, RMB 2.01 billion, and RMB 2.39 billion for the same period. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.40, RMB 0.51, and RMB 0.61 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 46.0, 35.7, and 30.0 [6][8]. Market Position and Growth - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing use of the digital RMB in cross-border payments, which is expected to enhance the independence and security of these transactions. The digital RMB's application in CIPS is anticipated to improve transparency and security in cross-border payments [9][10]. - The report highlights that as of the end of 2024, the RMB ranked as the fourth most used payment currency globally, with a 23% year-on-year increase in cross-border RMB payment amounts, totaling RMB 64.1 trillion [9]. Company Overview - Nantian Information has developed its own digital RMB circulation service platform, which includes various financial services applicable to multiple scenarios such as smart retail and cross-border trade. The company is the only main board IT listed company in Yunnan Province, providing it with a strategic advantage in the South Asian and Southeast Asian markets [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][6]. Core Insights - Under the "reciprocal tariff" policy, cross-border payments are expected to transition towards regionalization, accelerating the development of the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and highlighting the advantages of digital RMB settlements. The company possesses a digital RMB circulation service platform and has geographical advantages, which may lead to significant growth opportunities [4][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at RMB 9.87 billion, RMB 11.39 billion, and RMB 12.89 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 156 million, RMB 201 million, and RMB 239 million. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.40, RMB 0.51, and RMB 0.61 for the same period [6][8]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are expected to be 8.0%, 15.4%, and 13.2% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has developed its own digital RMB service platform, which includes various financial services suitable for multiple scenarios such as smart retail and cross-border trade. This positions the company favorably within the context of China's Belt and Road Initiative and the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) [9][10]. - The digital RMB can bypass traditional SWIFT systems, enhancing the independence and security of cross-border payments, while also improving transparency and traceability through blockchain technology [9][10]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Yunnan Provincial Industrial Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., holding 34.58% of the shares [4]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the company are projected to be 46.0, 35.7, and 30.0 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of approximately 2.7% from 2024 to 2026 [8]. Industry Context - The report indicates that the CIPS is expanding its coverage significantly, with the amount processed through CIPS expected to reach RMB 175 trillion in 2024, reflecting a 43% year-on-year increase [9]. - The digital RMB's application in CIPS is expected to enhance the overall efficiency and security of cross-border transactions, aligning with the growing trend of regionalization in global trade [9].