Economic Data Comparison - The core economic indicator for both China and the U.S. is GDP, with different statistical methods: China primarily uses the production approach, while the U.S. relies on the expenditure approach[1] - China's GDP data is mainly sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, while the U.S. data comes from multiple agencies, including the Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Labor Statistics[2] Statistical System Differences - China's statistical system is centralized, with a unified leadership structure, while the U.S. employs a decentralized system involving over 70 federal agencies[3] - In the U.S., the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is responsible for GDP calculations, which include comprehensive data, direct indicators, and trend-based data[4] GDP Calculation Methods - China's quarterly GDP is often estimated using related indicators, while annual GDP is calculated using production or income methods[5] - The U.S. GDP is published quarterly, with initial estimates released 30 days after the quarter ends, followed by two revisions[6] Monthly Economic Data - The U.S. releases key economic data monthly, including employment figures and consumer spending, while China’s data is more production-oriented[7] - Important monthly indicators in the U.S. include PMI, manufacturing orders, and trade data, which are released at different times throughout the month[8] Data Source and Reliability - China's GDP data relies heavily on statistical surveys and administrative records, while the U.S. incorporates a mix of official and non-official data sources, including private sector reports[9] - The differences in data collection methods lead to variations in the interpretation and application of economic indicators between the two countries[10]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including companies such as Binjiang Group (002244.SZ) and SF Holding (002352.SZ) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the commercialization of fusion energy in China, with a capital increase of 11.5 billion yuan from seven state-owned enterprises [2][7][9] - The fusion company aims to develop fusion energy through a phased approach, focusing on magnetic confinement Tokamak technology, with the goal of achieving commercial application [8][10] - The report discusses the acquisition plan by GoerTek to purchase 100% equity of Mega Precision Technology Limited and Channel Well Industrial Limited for approximately 9.5 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [3][12][13] - The report emphasizes the strong competitive position of the target companies in the precision metal components sector, which is crucial for high-tech industries [14]

Core Insights - H20's resumption of sales to China is expected to alleviate supply pressure on computing chips, stimulating the entire computing infrastructure and AI industry chain [2][3] - Since the rebound on April 9, overseas computing has seen a significant increase of 40.9%, while domestic computing, represented by Huawei's chain, has only increased by 21.1% [3][4] - The performance of domestic computing has improved, and H20's impact on domestic computing is limited, indicating that domestic computing still has long-term growth potential [5] Industry Overview - The computing power industry chain has been catalyzed by H20's return to the Chinese market, which is designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions and is specifically tailored for the Chinese market [3][5] - The domestic computing power industry is entering a growth cycle, supported by technological advancements, commercial applications, and increasing demand for AI models [4] - Key companies in the domestic computing power sector, such as Huawei, have demonstrated significant performance improvements, with Huawei's computing cluster outperforming NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on specific segments within the computing infrastructure industry, including servers, liquid cooling, copper connections, PCBs, optical communications, cloud computing, and domestic computing [5] - The IPO acceptance of domestic GPU manufacturers like Muxi Integration and Moore Threads fills the gap in the A-share market for full-function GPUs, further supporting the domestic computing ecosystem [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Insights - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a new phase in the development of controllable nuclear fusion in China, with a total capital increase of approximately 11.5 billion yuan from seven state-owned enterprises [2][4]. - The company aims to commercialize fusion energy through a three-step development approach: pilot experimental reactor, demonstration reactor, and commercial reactor [4]. - The controllable nuclear fusion industry in China is entering a rapid development phase, supported by multiple technological routes and significant investments from state-owned enterprises [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The establishment of the fusion company is a significant step towards the commercialization of fusion energy in China, with a registered capital reaching 15 billion yuan after the recent capital increase [4]. - The company currently has total assets of 5.369 billion yuan and equity of 5.367 billion yuan, with no operating revenue reported yet [4]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with key materials and core components for controllable nuclear fusion devices, as well as those that have secured relevant orders. Recommended companies include Hezhong Intelligent, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Western Superconducting, and Antai Technology [4].

Core Insights - The report critiques Ray Dalio's understanding of national debt, arguing that he applies microeconomic thinking to macroeconomic issues, leading to flawed conclusions about debt sustainability [2][4][13] - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing different levels of understanding debt: microeconomic, macroeconomic, and international monetary system perspectives [5][11] - The report highlights that a country's debt sustainability is primarily determined by its production capacity rather than just cash flow, especially in cases of insufficient domestic demand [6][9][10] Section Summaries Understanding Debt at Different Levels - The first level of understanding debt is microeconomic, focusing on individual or corporate cash flows covering debt obligations [5] - The second level is macroeconomic, where a country's debt sustainability is linked to its production capacity and domestic demand [6][9] - The third level involves the international monetary system, particularly how the U.S. can sustain high debt levels due to its status as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency [11][12] Critique of Dalio's Methodology - Dalio's analysis is criticized for being overly simplistic and not accounting for the complexities of macroeconomic dynamics [13][20] - The report argues that Dalio's view of macroeconomics as a machine is outdated and fails to capture the fluid nature of economic interactions [15][18] - It points out that macroeconomic outcomes can differ significantly based on the prevailing economic conditions, which Dalio's framework does not adequately address [19][20] Implications for National Debt - The report asserts that countries with excess production capacity and insufficient demand can manage higher debt levels without facing crises [9][10] - It warns against applying microeconomic debt sustainability criteria to macroeconomic contexts, as this can lead to misjudgments about a country's financial health [20][21] - The analysis suggests that the focus should be on the broader economic environment rather than rigid debt-to-GDP ratios or deficit targets [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a previous rating also being "Buy" [2][4][6]. Core Views - The company is planning a significant equity acquisition to expand its precision structural components business, which is expected to create synergies with the listed company and enhance its competitive edge in the precision structural components sector [4][6][9]. - The acquisition is valued at approximately RMB 95 billion, funded by the company's own cash reserves, which are sufficient to cover the acquisition costs [9]. - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 3.64 billion, RMB 4.21 billion, and RMB 5.07 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.6, 19.5, and 16.2 [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 98.57 billion in 2023 to RMB 139.20 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.2% from 2025 to 2027 [8][10]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 4.92 billion in 2023 to RMB 10.09 billion in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8][10]. - The report anticipates a significant recovery in net profit growth, with a forecasted increase of 144.9% in 2024, followed by steady growth rates of 36.6% and 15.6% in the subsequent years [8][10].

Key Insights - The report highlights a focus on the humanoid robot industry, which has seen a significant increase in market attention, with the National Securities Robot Industry Index rising by 7.6% from July 7 to July 18, 2025 [6][8] - Major factors driving this resurgence include substantial orders from leading companies, capital acquisitions, influential statements from industry leaders, and supportive government policies aimed at fostering innovation in humanoid robotics [7][8] - The report also notes that the active equity fund median position reached 90.63% in Q2 2025, indicating a historical high and a shift towards increased allocations in TMT, Hong Kong stocks, and machinery sectors [9][10] Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot market is experiencing a revival, with key players like China Mobile placing significant orders, which serve as a validation of product functionality and market readiness [6][7] - The report identifies a trend of increased capital activity, with companies pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance their market positions [7] - Government initiatives are also playing a crucial role, with policies aimed at promoting the development of humanoid robots and related technologies [8] Active Equity Fund Analysis - The report indicates that the highest allocation sectors for active equity funds in Q2 2025 were TMT (23.37%), Hong Kong stocks (20.41%), and machinery (19.68%), reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [9][10] - The report emphasizes that the current allocation levels are above historical averages for several sectors, indicating a bullish sentiment among fund managers [9][10] AI Computing Industry - The AI computing supply chain is entering a phase of maturity, driven by advancements in generative AI and large language models, leading to a closure of the demand-supply loop [11][12] - The report highlights that the infrastructure for AI computing is expected to see continued investment, with significant growth in demand for high-end AI servers [12][13] - The competition in the PCB industry is intensifying due to the rising demand for AI servers, with a projected 150% increase in demand for high-density interconnect (HDI) boards [13]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 7 月 23 日 策略点评 人形机器人产业趋势跟踪半月报 人形机器人低位再起。2025 年 7 月 7 日-2025 年 7 月 18 日。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 ◼ 近两周，人形机器人产业市场关注度再度显著提高。国证机器人产业指数 在 7 月 7 日至 7 月 18 日期间累计涨幅 7.6%，万得人形机器人指数上涨 7.5%，我们跟踪的人形机器人 185 指数上涨 7.7%，人形机器人概念指数 整体涨幅表现较好。成分股中，中大力德、鼎泰高科、浙江荣泰等成分股 表现尤为突出。 ◼ 挂钩国证机器人产业指数的易方达国证机器人产业 ETF 持续获得资金净 流入，流通份额近期显著增加，最新规模突破 20 亿元，年内规模增超 10 倍。 ...

- The report defines "fund clustering degree" as a measure influenced by the clustering degree of heavy stocks and their holding proportions. Stock clustering degree is calculated based on the number of funds holding a specific stock, ranked by percentile within all stocks[25][26] - Fund clustering degree is derived as a weighted sum of heavy stock clustering degrees, with weights being the proportion of the stock's market value to the fund's total stock holdings. The formula is: $ \text{fund\_score}_{\text{j,t}}=\sum_{k=1}^{10}\text{stock\_cap}_{k,t}\times\text{stock\_score}_{k,t} $ where stock_cap represents the proportion of the stock's market value, and stock_score denotes the clustering degree of the stock[27] - In Q2 2025, the fund clustering degree decreased compared to the previous quarter, currently positioned near historical averages[27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][85] Core Insights - The AI infrastructure supply chain is entering a performance realization phase due to the maturation of business models driven by generative AI and large language models, alongside an increase in core hardware supply capacity [1] - The next generation of advanced AI infrastructure platforms is expected to continue driving product iterations and supply chain transformations, supporting the "Outperform the Market" rating [1] Demand and Supply Analysis - Global capital expenditure from major cloud computing companies remains high, with a projected increase in AI server demand, leading to sustained growth in AI cloud infrastructure [6][15] - The demand for high-end AI servers is expected to grow significantly, with a 150% increase in high-density interconnect (HDI) board demand as traditional server motherboards exceed 18 layers [45][49] - The AI server market is projected to reach $24.1 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [49] Hardware and Technology Developments - NVIDIA's new GB300 NVL72 platform shows a tenfold improvement in user response speed compared to the previous generation, indicating significant advancements in AI performance [31] - The upcoming NVIDIA Rubin architecture, set to launch in 2026, will include GPUs, CPUs, and network processors, further enhancing the supply chain [34] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies to focus on include: - PCB: Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, Shenzhen South Circuit, Pengding Holdings, Founder Technology, Shengyi Technology, Jingwang Electronics, and Guanghe Technology [3][78] - CCL: Shengyi Technology and Nanya New Materials [3][78] - Glass Fiber Cloth: Feilihua, China National Building Material, and Honghe Technology [3][78] - Copper Foil: Longyang Electronics and Defu Technology [3][78] - Epoxy Resin and Fillers: Dongcai Technology, Shengquan Group, Tongyu New Materials, and Lianrui New Materials [3][78]