Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that risk assets are expected to maintain relative advantages, with the profitability factor likely to recover [2][4][10] - The asset allocation model is an improved version of the Black-Litterman (BL) model, which combines market consensus with active views to optimize asset allocation and enhance the Sharpe ratio [3][5] - The model predicts that in the third quarter of 2025, the allocation ratio for domestic stocks will continue to increase while the bond allocation ratio will remain relatively high [10][11] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the profitability factor is expected to recover, and the advantage of small-cap stocks is likely to continue [2][17] - As of June 30, 2025, the market style performance for the second quarter showed strong results for small-cap and low-valuation factors, with weak profitability and weak reversal [13][16] - The report recommends focusing on indices such as the ChiNext Index, CSI A500, and CSI 2000, which exhibit high profitability and small-cap attributes [20][21]

Core Insights - The report highlights the sustained high demand for domestic computing power driven by ongoing U.S. restrictions on advanced chip imports, accelerating the domestic substitution process [3][7] - Domestic cloud service providers are increasing capital expenditures, gradually releasing industrial demand, while the iteration of domestic AI large models and applications is further boosting computing power needs [3][7] Industry Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3454.79, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10412.63, down 0.61% [4] - The performance of various sectors is noted, with steel up 3.37% and electronics down 2.01% [5] Key Focus Areas - The domestic computing power market is experiencing a boom, with Huawei's Ascend 910C servers being deployed in significant quantities, indicating a new phase in domestic computing commercialization [7] - The Ascend 910C chip boasts a single-chip computing power of 320 TFLOPS (FP16), designed for efficiency and low power consumption, suitable for AI tasks [7] - Major domestic internet companies are ramping up investments in AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion RMB over three years, and Tencent's capital expenditure reaching 275 billion RMB in Q1 2025, up 91% year-on-year [8] Demand Drivers - The report notes that application-side inference is expected to drive demand growth, with significant increases in token usage reported by major companies like Alphabet and ByteDance [9] - The domestic supply side, including chips and supernode deployments, has achieved technological breakthroughs, which will lead to increased demand for computing power as industry applications evolve [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the sustained high demand for domestic computing power driven by the ongoing restrictions on advanced chip imports from the US, which accelerates the domestic computing power substitution process. Domestic cloud vendors are increasing capital expenditures and gradually releasing industrial demand, while the iteration of domestic AI models and applications is boosting computing power demand [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to prioritize attention on the construction and application of domestic AI computing power network infrastructure, including operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as server and switch equipment manufacturers like ZTE, Unisoc, Inspur, Ruijie Networks, and Shengke Communication. Additionally, focus on optical modules and optical devices from companies like NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Yuanjie Technology, Huagong Technology, Guangxun Technology, Shijia Photonics, and Huafeng Technology [3]. Industry Trends - The report notes that Huawei's Ascend 910C has begun mass shipments, marking a new phase in the commercialization of domestic computing power. A recent tender announcement indicated that a smart computing center project plans to use 4,500 Ascend 910C-2 servers, with an expected capacity of 20,000 P computing power. The Ascend 910C features a single-chip computing power of 320 TFLOPS (FP16), making it suitable for AI tasks such as natural language processing and computer vision [1][3]. - Domestic cloud vendors and operators are increasing capital expenditures on computing power, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion RMB in cloud construction and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, averaging over 120 billion RMB annually. Tencent's capital expenditure in Q1 2025 reached 27.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 91%, with a focus on resources for large model training and inference [1][3]. - The demand for computing power is expected to grow due to breakthroughs in application-side inference technology, which significantly lowers barriers to entry. The report cites Alphabet's inference volume reaching approximately 634 trillion tokens in Q1 2025, a 50-fold increase from the previous year [1][3].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 2 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250702 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 ■重点关注 【策略研究】2025 年中期策略报告*王君 徐沛东 郭晓希 徐亚 高天然。在科 技重估、关税冲击、政策储备等多维度下，怎么配 A 股才能成功突围？ 【宏观经济】一季度对外经济部门体检报告*管涛 刘立品 。2025 年一季度， 我国国际收支延续经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差的自主平衡格局，交易引起 的外汇储备资产减少但外汇储备余额增加，民间部门首次转为对外净资产。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3457.75 | 0.39 | | 深证成指 | 10476.29 | 0.11 | | 沪深 300 | 3942.76 | 0.17 | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.60 | 计算机 | (1.18) | ...

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Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - New home transaction area increased on a month-on-month basis but decreased year-on-year, with a significant drop in the year-on-year rate of decline [1] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle both decreased on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis [1] - The land market saw both volume and price increases, with a notable rise in the premium rate [1] - Domestic bond issuance by real estate companies decreased significantly, indicating tighter financing conditions [1] - The absolute return of the real estate sector increased, while the relative return compared to the CSI 300 also improved [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area for 40 cities was 3.366 million square meters, up 37.0% month-on-month but down 25.7% year-on-year [1][18] - Second-hand home transaction area decreased by 2.7% month-on-month but saw a smaller year-on-year decline of 0.9% [1][18] - New home inventory area for 12 cities was 87.42 million square meters, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 16.3% year-on-year [1][45] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area for 100 cities was 15.761 million square meters, up 47.9% month-on-month and up 25.6% year-on-year [1][14] - Total land transaction price reached 57.35 billion yuan, up 186.7% month-on-month and up 155.3% year-on-year [1][14] - The average floor price of land was 3,639 yuan per square meter, up 93.9% month-on-month and up 103.2% year-on-year [1][14] 3. Industry Policy Review - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to stabilize the real estate market through various supportive measures [1][6] 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 3.1%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the previous week [1][15] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) was 23.85X, up 0.68X from the previous week [1][15] 5. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of key company announcements within the real estate sector for the week [1][15] 6. Bond Issuance Situation - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 4.79 billion yuan, down 43.0% month-on-month and down 37.1% year-on-year [1][15]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 13.49%, ranking second among all industries, with a focus on the investment value of bank stocks [1][12] - The report suggests paying attention to specific banks such as China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The banking index increased by 0.67% this week, while the Wind All A index rose by 3.56%, indicating that the banking sector underperformed by 2.69 percentage points [12] - Among the 42 A-share banks, 22 saw an increase in stock prices this week [2] - State-owned banks had an average increase of 0.75% with a P/B ratio of 0.71X, while joint-stock banks rose by 1.09% with a P/B of 0.60X [15] - The average increase for city commercial banks was 0.43% with a P/B of 0.71X, while rural commercial banks saw a decline of 1.16% with a P/B of 0.66X [15] Funding Price Situation - The central bank conducted a significant reverse repo operation, injecting 10672 billion into the market this week [3][27] - The overnight SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.37%, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased by 14 basis points to 1.67% [30] - The average rates for overnight and 7-day repo transactions were 1.46% and 1.92%, respectively, with the latter rising by 33 basis points [30] Bond Market Situation - Total financing in the bond market reached 20769.5 billion, with net financing down by 1078.6 billion compared to last week [42] - Local government bonds issuance increased to 6416.4 billion, while national bonds decreased significantly by 3197.8 billion [42] - The yield on 1-year national bonds was 1.35%, down by 1 basis point, while the 10-year yield rose to 1.65%, up by 1 basis point [44] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 7264 billion, a decrease of 3741 billion from the previous week [53] - The weighted average issuance rate was 1.64%, down by 1 basis point [53]

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus increased by 250% year-on-year to $165.4 billion, marking a historical high[3] - The current account surplus accounted for 3.7% of GDP, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, remaining within the internationally recognized reasonable range of ±4%[3] Trade Performance - The goods trade surplus grew by 90% year-on-year to $237.5 billion, the second highest on record, only below the previous quarter's surplus of $249.8 billion[4] - Goods exports increased by 6% year-on-year to $853.7 billion, setting a new historical high, while imports decreased by 7% to $580.7 billion, the lowest since 2021[4] Capital Account Dynamics - The capital account deficit (including net errors and omissions) expanded for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching $196.6 billion, the fourth highest on record[11] - The online capital account deficit was $171.8 billion, the second highest ever, significantly larger than the $19.7 billion deficit from the previous year[11] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign direct investment (FDI) saw a net inflow of $200 million, down from $505 million year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in foreign debt investment[21] - The net inflow of foreign equity investment rose to $253 million, the highest since Q2 2023, driven by a recovery in stock investments[21] Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $38.3 billion to $3.24 trillion in Q1 2025, despite a decrease in reserve assets due to short-term capital outflows[27] - The valuation effect contributed positively to the reserves, with an estimated impact of $71 billion from currency and asset price changes[27] Private Sector Positioning - By the end of March 2025, China's private sector transitioned from a net liability position to a net asset position of $78.5 billion, the first such shift since 2004[32] - The private sector's foreign assets increased by $40.3 billion, while liabilities rose by $16.4 billion, reflecting a significant change in investment behavior[33]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a decline in oil tanker rates, with the VLCC market experiencing a significant price drop of 14.31% compared to June 19, with current rates at WS59.88 [3][12] - In the shipping sector, the demand for European routes has improved, resulting in a 10.6% increase in spot market booking prices, while the US routes have seen a decline of 7.0% and 11.9% for the West and East coasts, respectively [3][14] - During the summer travel season, Hainan Airlines plans to operate nearly 2,500 flights daily, with domestic ticket bookings reaching 17.9 million, a 5% increase year-on-year [3][15] - The newly unveiled Zhuque eVTOL has a range of 600 kilometers, and from January to May, national railway freight volume increased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling 1.641 billion tons [3][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The Middle East situation has calmed, leading to a reduction in oil tanker rates and a return to supply-demand fundamentals [12] - Hainan Airlines is set to launch 75 new domestic and international routes during the summer travel season, with a daily flight plan of nearly 2,500 [15] - The Zhuque eVTOL was showcased, achieving a range of 600 kilometers, while railway freight volume showed a year-on-year increase [22] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air logistics: The overall trend for routes to the Asia-Pacific remains stable, with air freight prices showing a decline [25] - Shipping ports: The domestic container shipping price index has decreased, while dry bulk freight rates have also fallen [43] - Express logistics: In May 2025, express delivery volume increased by 17.20% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 8.20% [54] - Air travel: The average daily international flights in the last week of June 2025 increased by 17.51% year-on-year [3] - Road and rail: The number of freight trucks on highways increased by 0.88% week-on-week [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Investment opportunities in the road and rail sector, recommending Sichuan Chengyu, Gansu Expressway, and others [4] - Interest in cruise and ferry investment opportunities, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Co [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and others [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that under the current weak replenishment cycle, A-shares are expected to outperform other asset classes, with a recommendation to increase the allocation to A-shares while reducing commodity assets [2][24][25] - The report predicts a weak recovery in A-share earnings, with a projected growth rate of 0-5% for the second half of 2025, and a valuation contribution of 0-7%, leading to an expected median increase of 7% in A-shares [39][40] - The report identifies small-cap stocks, strong reversals, high valuations, and high profitability as the dominant market styles for the second half of 2025, with a particular focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [46][47][48] Group 2 - The technology sector is highlighted as a high-probability choice for index breakout, supported by stable capital market commitments and sufficient policy reserves [54] - The report outlines two scenarios for industry allocation: one under a fluctuating market and another under a potential upward breakout, indicating the need for strategic planning [54] - The report suggests that the AI and humanoid robotics industries are expected to experience significant growth, with a focus on high-growth and consumption styles in the top ten recommended industries for the second half of 2025 [24][39]