证券研究报告：银行|银行资产负债月报 证券研究报告：银行业|银行资产负债月报 发布时间：2025-04-16 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 3972.79 | | 52 | 周最高 | 4048.07 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3132.76 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-04 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国有银行增资方案落地：提升风险抵 御能力、助力更好服务实体经济》 - 2025.04.03 银行业行业报告 （2025.03.16-2025.04.15） 银行资负观察第一期：如何理解银行体系低超储高 融出 l 投资要点 l 银行间流动性回顾： 3 月 15 日至 4 月 15 日银行间资金走势与 2023 年基 ...

证券研究报告：银行|银行资产负债月报 证券研究报告：银行业|银行资产负债月报 发布时间：2025-04-16 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 3972.79 | | 52 | 周最高 | 4048.07 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3132.76 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-04 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国有银行增资方案落地：提升风险抵 御能力、助力更好服务实体经济》 - 2025.04.03 银行业行业报告 （2025.03.16-2025.04.15） 银行资负观察第一期：如何理解银行体系低超储高 融出 l 投资要点 l 银行间流动性回顾： 3 月 15 日至 4 月 15 日银行间资金走势与 2023 年基 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-04-16 研究所 分析师:李书开 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040001 Email:lishukai@cnpsec.com 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《债券的宏观叙事和微观叙事——流 动性周报 20250413》 - 2025.04.14 信用策略观点 信用拉久期的性价比如何？ ⚫ 信用拉久期的性价比如何？ 3 月以来信用债的市场行情持续回暖，但拆分结构来看，可分成 两大阶段，不同阶段行情的驱动因素差异较大。第一阶段为 2 月底到 3 月中下旬，此阶段行情主要由配置盘驱动,短端品种已经跌出了绝对 的票息价值，性价比凸显。而第二阶段为 3 月下旬至今，此阶段行情 主要受利率市场影响，关税扰动之下，对降准降息和资金宽松的预期 确定性增强，债券市场行情突然点燃，信用债跟随利率债一起修复。 从近期的周度行情表现来看，美国关税政策持续加码，资金面明 显转松，股市情绪提振，债市震荡上行，但利率的涨幅高于信用。从 二级的估值表现来看，1Y、2Y、3Y、4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][8] Core Views - The company reported strong growth in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 4.848 billion, 980 million, and 959 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 39.23%, 47.62%, and 53.55% [4][5] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 44.47% and 20.21%, showing improvements of 1.7 and 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company expects additional revenue contributions from new large-sized packaging products in 2025, while cost advantages from sugar procurement are anticipated to weaken in the latter quarters of the year [7] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 267.58 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 139.1 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 520 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.83 [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved sales revenue of 4.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75% [5] - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 20.485 billion, 25.336 billion, and 30.526 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with respective growth rates of 29.34%, 23.68%, and 20.49% [10][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.500 billion, 5.731 billion, and 7.024 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 35.28%, 27.33%, and 22.57% [10][11] Product and Channel Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages reached 3.901 billion, 570 million, and 375 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.71%, 261.46%, and 72.62% respectively [6] - The company’s distribution channels generated revenues of 4.283 billion, 457 million, 104 million, and 1 million yuan from distributors, key accounts, online, and other channels, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.13%, 62.83%, 54.18%, and a decline of 83.13% [6]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-04-16 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口可能出现的变化及应对》 - 2025.04.07 宏观研究 抢出口叠加低基数效应推升出口超预期 核心观点 以美元计价，3 月出口增速保持较高韧性，好于预期和季节性水 平；从国别来看，我国对东盟、欧盟、美国的出口保持韧性是支撑出 口超预期的主要原因。我们理解，虽然 2 月和 3 月美国对我国加征 20%关税落地，但市场基于美国"对等关税"的不确定性，短期仍存在 "抢出口"行为，同时叠加我国出口商品相对价格优势，支撑我国出 口韧性。 站在当前时点，向后看：（1）展望 4 月出口，因所谓的"对等关 税"已经落地，显著超市场预期，全球贸易体系面临重构风险，"抢出 口"或已结束，我国出口或面临较为显著压力，4 月我国出口增速或 回落至-3%左右。（2）年内看，出口有望实现正增长。一是关注美国是 否基于自身经济 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][8] Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 4.848 billion, 980 million, and 959 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 39.23%, 47.62%, and 53.55% [4][5] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 44.47% and 20.21%, showing improvements of 1.7 and 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company expects continued revenue growth driven by new product launches and improved cost management, with projected revenues of 20.485 billion, 25.336 billion, and 30.526 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.34%, 23.68%, and 20.49% [7][10] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 267.58 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 139.1 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 520 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.83 [3][10] - The largest shareholder is Lin Muqin [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a sales cash collection of 4.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75% [5] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 were 3.870 billion yuan, an increase of 1.182 billion yuan year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages in Q1 2025 was 3.901 billion, 570 million, and 375 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.71%, 261.46%, and 72.62% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain stable expense ratios while investing in brand promotion and distribution channels [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.65, 11.02, and 13.51 yuan respectively [7][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 43.3%, 47.0%, and 47.8% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.933 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 255 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 399.68% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is actively expanding into consumer electronics, industrial interconnect, and automotive markets, significantly enhancing its profitability through timely technological and product innovations [5] - The company has launched over 1,400 products across 42 categories, achieving an annual shipment of over 6 billion units by the end of 2024 [5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 30.43% in 2024, an increase of 5.58 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.542 billion yuan, 4.269 billion yuan, and 5.124 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 405 million yuan, 578 million yuan, and 787 million yuan [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 1.10 yuan in 2024 to 3.38 yuan in 2027 [12] Product Innovation - The company has made significant advancements in high-performance mixed-signal chips, including audio amplifiers, haptic products, and camera driver chips, achieving mass production and certification for automotive applications [6][8] - The power management chip segment has seen the introduction of various products, including high PSRR LDOs and DCDC converters, with successful penetration into the automotive sector [7] - The signal chain chip category has expanded with new offerings in operational amplifiers and comparators, targeting industrial applications [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.933 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 255 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 399.68% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is actively expanding into consumer electronics, industrial interconnect, and automotive markets, leading to a notable improvement in profitability [5] - The company has launched over 1,400 products across 42 categories, with an annual shipment volume exceeding 6 billion units by the end of 2024 [5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a comprehensive gross margin of 30.43% in 2024, an increase of 5.58 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.542 billion yuan, 4.269 billion yuan, and 5.124 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 405 million yuan, 578 million yuan, and 787 million yuan [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 1.10 yuan in 2024 to 3.38 yuan by 2027 [12] Product Innovation - The company has made significant advancements in high-performance mixed-signal chips, including audio amplifiers and power management chips, which have been successfully mass-produced and certified [6][7][8] - The company has introduced various power management chips and has achieved breakthroughs in automotive applications, enhancing power supply efficiency for vehicle communication systems [7][9] Market Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates projected at 20.77% for 2025, 20.53% for 2026, and 20.02% for 2027 [12] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the electronics industry, particularly in the automotive and industrial sectors [5][10]

- The report introduces the Llama 4 model series, which includes Llama 4 Scout, Llama 4 Maverick, and Llama 4 Behemoth, highlighting their advanced multimodal capabilities and efficiency through the MoE (Mixture of Experts) architecture[10][11][12] - Llama 4 Scout features 16 experts with 17 billion activated parameters, supports a 10M context window, and is optimized for single H100 GPU deployment, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in various benchmarks[11][12] - Llama 4 Maverick employs 128 routed experts and a shared expert, activating only a subset of total parameters during inference, which reduces service costs and latency. It also incorporates post-training strategies like lightweight SFT, online RL, and DPO to balance model intelligence and conversational ability[12][14] - The CoDA method is introduced to mitigate hallucination in large language models (LLMs) by identifying overshadowed knowledge through mutual information calculations and suppressing dominant knowledge biases. This method significantly improves factual accuracy across datasets like MemoTrap, NQ-Swap, and Overshadow[23][25][29] - The KG-SFT framework enhances knowledge manipulation in LLMs by integrating external knowledge graphs. It includes components like Extractor (NER and BM25 for entity and triple extraction), Generator (HITS algorithm for generating explanatory text), and Detector (NLI models for detecting knowledge conflicts). KG-SFT demonstrates superior performance, especially in low-data scenarios, with a 14% accuracy improvement in English datasets[45][47][52] - DeepCoder-14B-Preview, an open-source code reasoning model, achieves competitive performance with only 14 billion parameters. It utilizes GRPO+ for stable training, iterative context length extension, and the verl-pipeline for efficient reinforcement learning. The model achieves a Pass@1 accuracy of 60.6% on LiveCodeBench and a Codeforces score of 1936, placing it in the 95.3rd percentile[53][61][64]

证券研究报告：电力设备 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-04-15 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 31.63 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）3.11 | / 2.66 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）98 | / 84 | | 周内最高/最低价 52 | 42.38 / 18.16 | | 资产负债率(%) | 50.5% | | 市盈率 | 22.85 | | 第一大股东 | 方兴 | 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 盛弘股份(300693) 业绩符合预期，看好充电桩和智算中心的景气度 l 投资要点 事件：2025 年 4 月 2 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。 2024年公司营收 30.4 亿元，同比+14.5%；归母净利润 4.3亿元， 同 比 +6.5% ； 其 中 2024Q4 公 司 营 收 9.4 亿 元 ， 同 环 比 分 别 +2.5%/+41.7%；归母净利润 1.6 亿元，同环比分别+22.1%/+ ...