证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-27 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2370.55 | | 52 | 周最高 | 2656.47 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《投资与销售双降 楼市调整压力持 续》 - 2025.10.20 2025 年 10 月 23 日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全 体会议公报明确提出"推动房地产高质量发展"，标志着"十五五"时期 房地产行业正式从规模扩张转向品质提升的新阶段。"推动房地产高 质量发展"被纳入"保障和改善民生"框架，政策重心从"稳增长"转向"促 品 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model **Construction Idea**: The model monitors the future diffusion index's critical points to predict market changes[39][40] **Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price changes of constituent stocks over a specific time window. The horizontal axis represents the future price change percentage (from +10% to -10%), while the vertical axis represents the review period length (from 20 days to 10 days). For example, at a horizontal axis value of 0.95 and a vertical axis value of 15 days, the diffusion index is 0.42, indicating that if all constituent stocks drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value will be 0.42[39][41] **Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying potential turning points in the market[40] - **Model Name**: First Threshold Method (Left-Side Trading) **Construction Idea**: This method triggers a buy signal when the diffusion index reaches a predefined threshold[43] **Construction Process**: The first threshold method triggered a buy signal on September 23, 2025, when the diffusion index reached 0.0575[43] **Evaluation**: The method is suitable for early-stage market entry[43] - **Model Name**: Delayed Threshold Method (Right-Side Trading) **Construction Idea**: This method provides a buy signal after the diffusion index stabilizes above the threshold[46] **Construction Process**: The delayed threshold method triggered a buy signal on September 25, 2025, when the diffusion index reached 0.1825[46] **Evaluation**: The method is more conservative and reduces false signals compared to the first threshold method[46] - **Model Name**: Dual Moving Average Method (Adaptive Trading) **Construction Idea**: This method uses two moving averages to generate trading signals based on their crossover[47] **Construction Process**: The dual moving average method provided a buy signal on October 13, 2025, at the market close[47] **Evaluation**: The method adapts to market trends and is effective in capturing medium-term signals[47] Model Backtesting Results - **Diffusion Index Model**: Current diffusion index value is 0.67, indicating a medium-high level. If the market rises by 4% next week, it will trigger the risk threshold[39][40] - **First Threshold Method**: Triggered buy signal at diffusion index value of 0.0575[43] - **Delayed Threshold Method**: Triggered buy signal at diffusion index value of 0.1825[46] - **Dual Moving Average Method**: Triggered buy signal on October 13, 2025[47] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Non-Liquidity Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the illiquidity of stocks to predict their future performance[5][33] **Construction Process**: The rank IC for this factor is calculated weekly. This week, the rank IC is 0.147, compared to the historical average of 0.04[5][33] **Evaluation**: The factor shows strong predictive power this week[5][33] - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Construction Idea**: Captures the sensitivity of stock returns to market movements[5][33] **Construction Process**: The rank IC for this factor is 0.134 this week, compared to the historical average of 0.004[5][33] **Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates significant improvement in predictive ability this week[5][33] - **Factor Name**: Standardized Expected Earnings Factor **Construction Idea**: Reflects the expected profitability of stocks[5][33] **Construction Process**: The rank IC for this factor is 0.132 this week, compared to the historical average of 0.014[5][33] **Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying profitable stocks[5][33] - **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter Net Profit Growth Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the growth rate of net profit in a single quarter[5][33] **Construction Process**: The rank IC for this factor is 0.088 this week, compared to the historical average of 0.02[5][33] **Evaluation**: The factor is moderately effective in predicting stock performance[5][33] - **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter ROE Factor **Construction Idea**: Reflects the return on equity for a single quarter[5][33] **Construction Process**: The rank IC for this factor is 0.045 this week, compared to the historical average of 0.022[5][33] **Evaluation**: The factor shows limited predictive power this week[5][33] Factor Backtesting Results - **Non-Liquidity Factor**: Rank IC 0.147, historical average 0.04[5][33] - **Beta Factor**: Rank IC 0.134, historical average 0.004[5][33] - **Standardized Expected Earnings Factor**: Rank IC 0.132, historical average 0.014[5][33] - **Single-Quarter Net Profit Growth Factor**: Rank IC 0.088, historical average 0.02[5][33] - **Single-Quarter ROE Factor**: Rank IC 0.045, historical average 0.022[5][33] Composite Strategy and Construction - **Strategy Name**: Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy **Construction Idea**: Selects 50 stocks with small market capitalization and low volatility from micro-cap stocks[8][17][35] **Construction Process**: The strategy rebalances every two weeks. In 2024, the strategy achieved a return of 7.07% with an excess return of -2.93%. In 2025, the YTD return is 71.25%, with a weekly excess return of 2.65%. The benchmark is the Wind Micro-Cap Index (8841431.WI), and transaction costs are 0.3% on both sides[8][17][35] **Evaluation**: The strategy is highly effective in capturing the performance of small-cap stocks in 2025[8][17][35] Strategy Backtesting Results - **Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy**: - 2024 Return: 7.07%, Excess Return: -2.93%[8][17][35] - 2025 YTD Return: 71.25%, Weekly Excess Return: 2.65%[8][17][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in copper and aluminum, suggesting that supply disruptions may elevate price levels. It also indicates that the recent adjustments in precious metals like gold and silver present a buying opportunity at around $3950 per ounce for gold [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7224.74, with a 52-week high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - LME copper increased by 3.17%, aluminum by 2.75%, zinc by 2.72%, lead by 2.31%, and tin by 1.94% this week. In contrast, COMEX gold decreased by 3.30% and silver by 4.38% [20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to supply disruptions, with a forecasted tight supply-demand situation in 2026. Aluminum prices are also anticipated to rise due to supply constraints from production halts [6][8] - Cobalt prices have continued to rise, with a short-term slowdown expected as the market enters a phase of speculation. Long-term, cobalt supply is projected to remain tight [7] - Tungsten prices are rebounding due to strong supply-side support and environmental regulations affecting production [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Yinxin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining for potential investment opportunities [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao - SAC Registration Numbers: S1340523070001, S1340523120001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com, cuichao@cnpsec.com [2] Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: steel production is stable with a slight increase, asphalt开工率 is continuously declining at a high level, PX and PTA开工率 remain flat, and tire开工率 slightly increases; the real estate market shows marginal improvement with increases in both commercial housing transactions and land supply areas; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and coking coal prices, continuous increase in copper prices, and accelerated upward movement in overall agricultural product prices; domestic and international freight rate indices show a divergent trend, with BDI changing from rising to falling and domestic SCFI and CCFI both rising. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30] Summary by Section Production - Steel production is stable with a slight increase, and tire开工率 is generally on the rise. In the week of October 24, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.83 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.44 pct, and the rebar production increased by 5.91 tons; the petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 4.7 pct; the chemical PX and PTA开工率 remained the same as the previous week; the full - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 1.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.95 pct [2][3][9] Demand - The real estate market shows marginal improvement, and SCFI continues to rise. In the week of October 19, the commercial housing transaction area continued to recover, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area recovered, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased; the movie box office decreased by 1.19 billion yuan compared with the previous week; the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 21,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 11,000 vehicles. In the week of October 24, the shipping index SCFI increased by 7.11%, CCFI increased by 2.02%, and BDI decreased by 3.77% [2][3][12] Prices - Crude oil, coking coal, and non - ferrous metals all increased, and the upward movement of agricultural products accelerated. On October 24, the Brent crude oil price increased by 7.59% to $65.94 per barrel, the coking coal futures price increased by 5.66% to 1,251.5 yuan per ton, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +3.21%, +2.81%, and +2.62% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.23%; the overall agricultural product prices increased, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increasing by 2.11%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -1.66%, -1.99%, +5.92%, and -1.40% respectively compared with the previous week [3][20][23] Logistics - The number of domestic flights slightly recovered, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of October 24, the subway passenger volume in Beijing slightly increased and that in Shanghai slightly decreased, the number of domestic flights increased while the number of international flights decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [3][26][27] Summary - Crude oil and coking coal prices significantly increased, and copper prices continued to rise. High - frequency economic data focuses on production, demand, prices, and logistics. Short - term attention should be paid to policy implementation and the real estate market recovery [30]

- **Barra style factors**: The report tracks several style factors including Beta, Market Cap, Momentum, Volatility, Non-linear Market Cap, Valuation, Liquidity, Profitability, Growth, and Leverage. These factors are constructed using historical data and financial metrics such as turnover rates, earnings growth rates, and market leverage ratios. For example, the Beta factor represents historical beta, while the Valuation factor is calculated as the inverse of the price-to-book ratio. The formulas for constructing these factors include weighted combinations of metrics like turnover rates and earnings ratios [14][15][16] - **Factor performance tracking**: The report evaluates the recent performance of style factors across the market. Beta, Liquidity, and Momentum factors showed strong long positions, while Market Cap, Non-linear Market Cap, and Valuation factors performed better in short positions. The tracking methodology involves selecting stocks from the Wind All A pool, excluding ST stocks, suspended stocks, and newly listed stocks under 120 days. Long positions are taken in the top 10% of stocks with the highest factor values, and short positions in the bottom 10%, with equal weight allocation [16][19][20] - **Factor backtesting results**: The report provides detailed backtesting results for style factors. For example, Beta achieved a weekly return of 4.58%, while Market Cap showed a negative weekly return of -3.55%. Other factors like Momentum and Liquidity also demonstrated varied performance across different time horizons, such as one week, one month, and year-to-date. The report highlights the annualized returns for three-year and five-year periods for each factor [17][18][19] - **GRU factor performance**: GRU factors showed weaker performance overall, with only the barra1d model achieving positive returns. Other GRU models experienced drawdowns in their long-short portfolios. This indicates potential challenges in the effectiveness of GRU factors under current market conditions [20][25][29] - **Technical factors**: Technical factors such as 20-day Momentum, 60-day Momentum, and various volatility measures (e.g., 120-day Volatility) were tracked. These factors generally showed positive returns in long positions, particularly in high-volatility and high-momentum stocks. For example, 120-day Volatility achieved a weekly return of 5.92% in the CSI 300 stock pool [24][27][31] - **Fundamental factors**: Fundamental factors like ROA growth, ROC growth, and Net Profit growth were analyzed. In the CSI 300 stock pool, Net Profit growth achieved a weekly return of 2.51%, while ROA growth showed a return of 1.19%. These factors generally favored stocks with stable and strong growth metrics [23][25][30] - **Multi-factor portfolio performance**: The report evaluates the performance of multi-factor portfolios. The barra5d model outperformed the CSI 1000 index by 0.27% this week and achieved a year-to-date excess return of 5.91%. Other models showed mixed results, with some experiencing slight drawdowns. The multi-factor portfolio achieved a weekly excess return of 0.04% relative to the CSI 1000 index [8][33][34]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China is expected to construct and renovate over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines, with new investment needs exceeding 5 trillion yuan. This initiative is a key focus for the government and is expected to significantly boost investment and consumption, creating substantial domestic demand opportunities. Recommended companies to watch include China Liansu, Qinglong Pipeline, and Donghong Co [4] - In the cement sector, the demand recovery is slow, with a year-on-year decline of 8.6% in cement production in August 2025, totaling 154 million tons. The industry is currently in a low demand and price phase, but capacity utilization is expected to improve due to policies limiting overproduction. Companies to focus on include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [5][10] - The glass industry is experiencing a downward trend in demand due to the real estate sector's impact, with prices showing signs of weakening post-holiday. The report suggests that while environmental regulations may not lead to a drastic reduction in capacity, they will increase costs and accelerate industry adjustments. Key players to monitor include Qibin Group [5][15] - The fiberglass sector is seeing a positive trend driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for explosive growth in low-dielectric products. Companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [5] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further price declines expected. The report anticipates a recovery in profitability for leading companies in the second half of the year, with firms like Oriental Yuhong and Sanke Tree recommended for attention [5] Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is gradually entering its peak season, but overall demand recovery is slow. The construction sector's demand has not fully materialized due to weather disruptions and the pace of demand release. The report notes that the industry is currently at a low point in both demand and prices [10] - In August 2025, cement production was 154 million tons, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year decline [10] Glass - The glass industry is facing weak demand post-holiday, with significant inventory increases affecting price stability. The report indicates that the supply-demand imbalance persists, and future performance will depend on policy changes and downstream inventory replenishment [15] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is benefiting from the AI industry's growth, with expectations for a significant increase in demand and prices for low-dielectric products. The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the industry [5] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with leading companies actively pursuing price increases. The report suggests that the sector has reached a profitability bottom, and improvements are anticipated in the latter half of the year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected increase in stock price relative to the benchmark index of over 20% within the next six months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 41.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.1 billion yuan, up 61.6% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The net profit for the same period was 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 227.7% year-on-year [4]. - The company is progressing well with its ultra-high voltage Phase III project, which is expected to enhance profitability in the polymer materials segment [5]. - The charging business is anticipated to reach a breakeven point sooner due to the growth of charging infrastructure and changes in electricity pricing models [5]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 201.0 billion yuan, 227.7 billion yuan, and 258.1 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.2 billion yuan, 6.6 billion yuan, and 8.2 billion yuan for the same years [6][10]. - The report indicates an upward revision in net profit forecasts compared to previous estimates, reflecting improved operational performance [6]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 34, 27, and 22, respectively [6].

- The diffusion index model has been tracking out-of-sample performance for four years, with notable results in 2021 when momentum strategies captured industry trends, achieving excess returns of over 25% before a significant drawdown in September due to cyclical stock adjustments. In 2022, the strategy maintained stable returns with an annual excess return of 6.12%. However, in 2023, excess returns declined to -4.58%, and in 2024, a major drawdown occurred after September due to the model's focus on upward trends, missing rebound industries, resulting in an annual excess return of -5.82%[24][28] - The diffusion index model suggests allocating to industries such as non-bank finance, construction, and defense military, which showed significant week-on-week improvement in rankings. The top six industries based on diffusion index rankings as of October 24, 2025, are non-bank finance (0.988), banking (0.967), steel (0.952), communication (0.946), comprehensive (0.913), and non-bank finance (0.9)[25][26][27] - The GRU factor model, based on minute-level volume and price data processed through GRU deep learning networks, has shown strong performance in short cycles but weaker performance in long cycles. The model has been effective in capturing trading information since 2021, achieving significant excess returns. However, since February 2025, the model has faced challenges in generating excess returns due to market focus on thematic trading[31][37] - The GRU factor model ranks industries based on their GRU factor scores. As of October 24, 2025, the top six industries are non-bank finance (1.13), banking (1), electric power and utilities (0.54), textile and apparel (0.03), automotive (-0.58), and machinery (-0.73). Industries with the lowest GRU factor scores include food and beverage (-17.79), non-ferrous metals (-10.81), basic chemicals (-8.82), agriculture (-8.76), coal (-6.57), and building materials (-6.48)[6][13][32] - The GRU factor model's weekly industry rotation suggests allocating to non-bank finance, electric power and utilities, textile and apparel, transportation, steel, and petrochemicals. For the week ending October 24, 2025, the model achieved an average return of 1.89%, underperforming the equal-weighted return of the CSI first-tier industries by -0.77%. For October, the model's excess return is 1.80%, while the year-to-date excess return stands at -6.41%[6][34][39]

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The 30 - year minus 10 - year Treasury spread has fully reflected the repair of risk preference, and the 10 - year minus 1 - year Treasury spread has also generally reflected it. The bond market currently has allocation value, but chasing the rise requires caution [3][10]. - The capital market is in a loose state, with stable and low capital prices and little seasonal fluctuation. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - The issuance pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. NCDs have high allocation value at the end of the year and may decline more than expected [4][17]. Summary by Directory 1. How to View the Pricing of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit? - **Bond Market Outlook**: Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The spreads have reflected risk - preference repair, and the bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, and there may be opportunities for monetary easing, but redemption pressure will persist. Chasing the rise of bonds requires caution [3][10]. - **Capital Market Situation**: The capital market is in a loose state, with capital prices at a stable low and little seasonal fluctuation. This is due to the central bank's careful liquidity arrangements and the relatively loose and smooth - flowing bank liabilities. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - **Analysis of NCDs' Net Financing Decline**: Some investors are worried about the continuous negative net financing of NCDs since the third quarter. This decline is consistent with the state of the bank's broad liability gap and is also due to the substitution effect of the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection [13]. - **NCDs' Supply Pressure in the Fourth Quarter**: The issuance pressure of NCDs in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. Although there is still some supply pressure at the end of the year, the probability of negative feedback is not high. The NCDs' interest rate is in a high - allocation - value range and may decline more than expected at the end of the year [4][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 370 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 0.1% year-on-year. However, Q3 2025 showed a revenue increase of 17.9% quarter-on-quarter and 23.8% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 110.4% quarter-on-quarter and 94.1% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in the testing power business despite underperformance in the hydrogen energy sector [4][5]. - The company is actively expanding its presence in the AI testing power sector, having secured small batch orders and completed some deliveries. It is also working on automating testing solutions for leading industry clients [5]. - The hydrogen energy industry is expected to gain momentum during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with national strategic support anticipated, which may lead to improved industry conditions and ongoing policy support [5]. Financial Forecast and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 550 million yuan, 660 million yuan, and 840 million yuan, respectively. Corresponding net profits are forecasted at 70 million yuan, 90 million yuan, and 130 million yuan, leading to price-to-earnings ratios of 52, 38, and 27 times [6][9]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 40.8% and 13.9%, respectively, with a notable reduction in sales expense ratio to 11.6% and a slight decrease in R&D expense ratio to 15.3% [4][6].