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流动性周报:存单利率下不来怎么看?-20250526
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 06:32
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-05-26 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《【中邮固收】城投 2024 年报全梳理 20250521》 - 2025.05.22 固收周报 存单利率下不来怎么看? ——流动性周报 20250525 ⚫ 1.6%或是资金充分下行后,NCD 的合理定价中枢位置 降准资金落地后,资金边际有所波动,同业存单利率未再下行, 加重了机构对流动性的担忧。 与往年不同,当前银行缺的主要是短期负债。从广义负债缺口来 看,贷款与存款的增速在年初至今已经明显收敛。从大行流动性稳定 指标来看,银行长期负债压力并不大。年初以来,大行负债压力的主 要来源是非银存款流失产生的缺口,非银存款本身期限也相对较短, 替代的 NCD 融资期限需求也相对较短。 同业存单发行短期化,也就造成其负债重置周期缩短。一季度供 需两端在期限方面达成共识,3 月的发行高峰以短期化为主,这也造 成到期量在短期的激增,6 月份到期规模在历史新高的 4 万亿以上。 所以,5 月中下旬之后,同业存单利率下不 ...
国防军工行业报告:美国防预算将达1万亿美元,创历史新高
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 06:11
证券研究报告:国防军工|行业周报 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:王煜童 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070004 Email:wangyutong@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1471.28 | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 《中邮军工-军工 AI 深度:AI 迎来奥本 海默时刻,将改变未来战争形态》 - 2025.05.22 行业相对指数表现 国防军工行业报告 -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 国防军工 沪深300 美国防预算将达 1 万亿美元,创历史新高 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 投资要点 据美媒报道,美国白宫及国防部近日宣称,美国 2026 财年国防 预算将首次达到 1 万亿美元。若获国会批准 ...
华工科技(000988):3D打印强化布局,数通光模块业务加速放量
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 05:48
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company focuses on three core businesses: "Perception, Connection, and Intelligent Manufacturing," targeting the new energy vehicle and digital empowerment sectors. It aims to innovate continuously based on customer needs and integrate into national strategies and industry developments [4]. - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 11.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.221 billion yuan, up 21.17% year-on-year. The growth is driven by the demand for intelligent manufacturing and connection services, particularly in the AIGC application field [4][5]. - The company maintains a global leadership position in thermal management for new energy vehicles and multifunctional sensor technology, with significant revenue contributions from its sensor business [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.275 billion yuan, 20.012 billion yuan, and 23.577 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 1.701 billion yuan, 2.179 billion yuan, and 2.716 billion yuan [9][11]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 times for 2025, 19 times for 2026, and 16 times for 2027 [9]. Business Developments - The company plans to establish a joint venture with Lika Precision to enhance its capabilities in 3D printing, focusing on SLM manufacturing technology for various applications [6][8]. - The connection business is experiencing explosive growth, particularly in domestic and overseas markets, with significant demand for optical modules [5][6]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a positive trend, with a notable increase in performance over the past year, reflecting strong market confidence [7].
医药生物行业报告:三生制药创出海交易新纪录,中国创新药企或迎Lisence out密集收获期
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 05:23
行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 7533.02 | | 52 周最高 | 8490.25 | | 52 周最低 | 6070.89 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 证券研究报告:医药生物|行业周报 发布时间:2025-05-26 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈成 SAC 登记编号:S1340524020001 Email:chencheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《特朗普计划降低美国药品价格,CXO 企业有望受益》 - 2025.05.19 医药生物行业报告 (2025.05.19-2025.05.25) 三生制药创出海交易新纪录,中国创新药企或迎 Lisence out 密集收获期 l 一周观点:三生制药重磅 ...
医药生物行业报告(2025.05.19-2025.05.25):三生制药创出海交易新纪录,中国创新药企或迎Lisenceout密集收获期
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 05:05
证券研究报告:医药生物|行业周报 发布时间:2025-05-26 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 7533.02 | | 52 周最高 | 8490.25 | | 52 周最低 | 6070.89 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈成 SAC 登记编号:S1340524020001 Email:chencheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《特朗普计划降低美国药品价格,CXO 企业有望受益》 - 2025.05.19 医药生物行业报告 (2025.05.19-2025.05.25) 三生制药创出海交易新纪录,中国创新药企或迎 Lisence out 密集收获期 l 一周观点:三生制药重磅 ...
静水流深,谋定后动
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 04:51
发布时间:2025-05-26 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 2000 3000 6000 7000 8000 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关税谈判利好落地后等待内需刺激 政策》 - 2025.05.19 策略观点 静水流深,谋定后动 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股延续先涨后跌节奏,风格再偏向防御,延续快速轮动格 局。本周医药生物、综合、有色金属、汽车和家用电器领涨,上周涨 幅领先的美容护理、非银金融和商贸零售显著回落。本周 A 股依然缺 乏明确的交易主线,领涨的医药生物一方面是市场轮动深化后欠涨的 方向进行补涨,另一方面是即将开幕的 2025 年美国临床肿瘤学会 (ASCO)年会上多家上市公司将公布其研究成果提振了市场情绪。 A 股自去年 9.24 行情开始以来最大的特点在于走势和个人投资 者情绪之间极强的关联性,受美国关税政策带来影响,当前个人投资 者情绪指数已出现明显 ...
华工科技:3D打印强化布局,数通光模块业务加速放量-20250526
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 04:25
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company focuses on three core businesses: "Perception, Connection, and Intelligent Manufacturing," targeting the new energy vehicle and digital empowerment sectors. It aims to innovate continuously based on customer needs and align with national strategies [4]. - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 11.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.221 billion yuan, up 21.17% year-on-year [4]. - The company maintains a leading position in global thermal management for new energy vehicles and multifunctional sensor technology, with significant revenue contributions from its sensor business [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.275 billion yuan, 20.012 billion yuan, and 23.577 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 1.701 billion yuan, 2.179 billion yuan, and 2.716 billion yuan [9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 times for 2025, 19 times for 2026, and 16 times for 2027 [9]. Business Segments - The intelligent manufacturing segment is expected to generate revenue of 3.492 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.45%. The connection business is projected to achieve 3.975 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 23.75% driven by AIGC applications [4]. - The company is also expanding its 3D printing capabilities through a joint venture with a precision company, aiming to enhance its market competitiveness in additive manufacturing [6][8]. Market Outlook - The perception and laser + intelligent manufacturing businesses are anticipated to grow rapidly, with the connection business expected to experience explosive growth due to high demand for computing optical modules [5]. - The company has commenced production at its Thailand factory, aiming for a monthly capacity of 250,000 units of 800G modules, which will support future overseas business growth [5].
有色金属行业报告:黄金上行开始,持续关注黄金股投资机会
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 03:23
证券研究报告:有色金属|行业周报 发布时间:2025-05-26 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关税预期缓解,黄金或迎底部做多 时机》 - 2025.05.06 有色金属行业报告 (2025.05.19-2025.05.24) 黄金上行开始,持续关注黄金股投资机会 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4695.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 ...
有色金属行业报告(2025.05.19-2025.05.24):黄金上行开始,持续关注黄金股投资机会
China Post Securities· 2025-05-26 02:44
证券研究报告:有色金属|行业周报 发布时间:2025-05-26 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4695.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 黄金上行开始,持续关注黄金股投资机会 l 投资要点 贵金属:黄金上行开始,持续关注黄金股投资机会。上周提 ...
有色金属:特朗普拟签核电命令,关注产业链个股
China Post Securities· 2025-05-23 10:23
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Trump is expected to sign an executive order to promote nuclear power, which includes measures to streamline safety approvals and significantly increase nuclear power generation capacity by 2050 [1][2] - The report indicates that the demand for uranium in the U.S. is projected to grow at a rate of 5.7%, with the U.S. accounting for approximately 26.86% of global uranium demand by 2024 [1][2] - The report suggests that the nuclear power command will lead to a significant increase in uranium demand, with estimates for 2030 ranging from 2.1 to 2.6 million tons and for 2050 between 6.4 to 8 million tons [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The executive order aims to reduce the environmental assessment period for nuclear plants from 7 years to 3 years and allows for the installation of new reactors at military bases [1] - The report notes that the current nuclear power generation in the U.S. is 100 gigawatts, with a target to increase this to 400 gigawatts by 2050 [1] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the global uranium supply is expected to be in a long-term deficit, with 2022 production at approximately 50,000 tons and new mines being limited [2] - The anticipated increase in nuclear power demand may lead to preemptive stockpiling of nuclear fuel, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China General Nuclear Power Group and Wanli Stone as potential investment opportunities in the nuclear sector [2]