Market Performance Review - A-shares experienced a week of initial gains followed by declines, with a shift towards large-cap stocks. The major indices mostly rose, with the CSI A50 up by 1.61%, while the STAR 50 continued its downward trend. The large-cap style outperformed small and mid-cap stocks significantly this week [12][13]. A-share Investor Sentiment and Trading - The investor sentiment in A-shares has continued to decline, with the personal investor sentiment index showing a 7-day moving average of -9.9% as of May 17, down from 8.8% on May 10. This indicates that investor sentiment has entered a negative zone [4][15]. - The financing trading volume has remained stagnant, with cumulative net purchases remaining unchanged. The proportion of financing transactions in the overall A-share market has slightly increased, reflecting a continued low enthusiasm among personal investors [18][20]. Future Outlook and Investment Views - The outlook for A-shares suggests that sentiment recovery requires a catalyst, particularly the introduction of domestic demand stimulus policies. The recent phase of the US-China trade talks is a positive development for the domestic macroeconomic stability and the valuation recovery of the export chain, but further sentiment recovery in A-shares hinges on more proactive domestic demand policies [5][20]. - In terms of asset allocation, the recent interest rate cuts have enhanced the cost-effectiveness of dividend stocks. It is recommended to focus on pure dividend stocks such as banks, railways, and electricity. However, the timing for investing in consumer stocks should be approached with caution until clear domestic demand stimulus policies are announced [5][21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [37]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the market is currently favoring high volatility and high momentum stocks, while low momentum and low volatility stocks are also performing well [3][5][20]. - It notes that growth and unexpected growth financial factors are showing positive returns, indicating a preference for stocks with stable growth despite short-term performance challenges [17][22]. - The GRU factor's performance is mixed, with most models showing negative returns, except for the open1d model which has shown positive returns [18][29]. Summary by Sections Style Factor Tracking - The report indicates strong performance in volatility, valuation, and liquidity factors, while non-linear market capitalization, market capitalization, and growth factors are underperforming [15][1]. Overall Market Factor Performance - Basic financial factors show a divergence in returns, with static financial factors yielding negative returns, while growth and unexpected growth factors yield positive returns [17]. - Technical factors are performing positively overall, with high volatility and high momentum stocks leading the performance [17]. CSI 300 Component Stock Factor Performance - Basic financial factors within the CSI 300 show mostly positive returns, with valuation factors underperforming and growth factors performing strongly [20]. - Technical factors show a mixed performance, with momentum factors significantly underperforming while volatility factors are performing positively [20]. CSI 500 Component Stock Factor Performance - Basic financial factors show a divergence in returns, with unexpected growth factors performing well, while static financial factors yield mostly negative returns [22]. - Technical factors show a mixed performance, with momentum factors underperforming and volatility factors performing positively [22]. CSI 1000 Component Stock Factor Performance - Basic financial factors show a divergence in returns, with static financial factors yielding negative returns and unexpected growth factors yielding positive returns [24]. - Technical factors are performing negatively overall, with low momentum and low volatility stocks performing better [25]. Strategy Performance Tracking - The GRU long position strategy has shown strong performance, with excess returns relative to the CSI 1000 index ranging from 0.84% to 1.89% [29]. - The open1d model has shown a strong performance year-to-date, with an excess return of 6.08% relative to the CSI 1000 index [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 27.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 7.36 billion yuan, with a significant increase in net profit expected to rise by 584% to 1.103 billion yuan [3][9]. - The overall product shipment volume has reached a new high of 4.362 billion units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.72% [3]. - The company is focusing on customized storage solutions, particularly in AI applications across various sectors, including mobile flagship devices, automotive, and robotics [4][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the reduction or exit of major competitors in the niche DRAM market, with a continued push for DDR4 8Gb and LPDDR4 product customer integration [5][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 9.3 billion yuan, 12 billion yuan, and 14.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.5 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan [9][11]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 54, 40, and 32 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong market position in the Serial NOR Flash segment, maintaining the second-largest global market share [3]. - The MCU product line is a strategic focus, with over 700 models developed to meet the growing demand in various applications, including electric vehicles and smart home devices [8]. - The company is actively pursuing innovation through its subsidiary, Beijing Qingyun Technology Co., to develop customized storage solutions tailored to specific client needs [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: GRU (Generalized Recurrent Unit) - **Model Construction Idea**: GRU models are used to capture temporal dependencies and patterns in financial data, leveraging recurrent neural network structures to predict stock performance or factor returns[3][4][5] - **Model Construction Process**: The GRU model is trained on historical stock data, incorporating features such as price movements, volume, and other technical indicators. Specific GRU-based models mentioned include: - **open1d**: Focuses on daily opening prices - **close1d**: Focuses on daily closing prices - **barra1d**: Integrates Barra-style risk factors for daily predictions - **barra5d**: Extends Barra-style risk factors to a 5-day horizon[5][6][25] - **Model Evaluation**: GRU models show mixed performance, with some models like open1d performing well, while others like barra1d and barra5d experience significant drawdowns in certain market conditions[5][6][25] --- Model Backtesting Results GRU Model Performance - **open1d**: - Weekly excess return: 1.22% - Monthly excess return: 2.58% - Year-to-date excess return: 6.08%[29][30] - **close1d**: - Weekly excess return: 1.89% - Monthly excess return: 2.91% - Year-to-date excess return: 4.14%[29][30] - **barra1d**: - Weekly excess return: 0.85% - Monthly excess return: 1.50% - Year-to-date excess return: 3.48%[29][30] - **barra5d**: - Weekly excess return: 0.84% - Monthly excess return: 2.25% - Year-to-date excess return: 5.59%[29][30] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Barra Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Barra factors are designed to capture systematic risk exposures across various dimensions such as size, value, momentum, and volatility[13][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Beta**: Historical beta of the stock - **Size**: Natural logarithm of total market capitalization - **Momentum**: Weighted average of historical excess returns, combining volatility, cumulative deviation, and residual volatility $ Momentum = 0.74 \cdot \text{Volatility} + 0.16 \cdot \text{Cumulative Deviation} + 0.1 \cdot \text{Residual Volatility} $ - **Volatility**: Weighted average of historical residual return volatilities - **Valuation**: Inverse of price-to-book ratio - **Liquidity**: Weighted average of turnover ratios (monthly, quarterly, yearly) - **Profitability**: Weighted average of analyst forecasted earnings yield, cash flow yield, and other profitability metrics - **Growth**: Weighted average of earnings and revenue growth rates - **Leverage**: Weighted average of market leverage, book leverage, and debt-to-asset ratio[14][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Barra factors demonstrate varying performance across different market conditions, with some factors like volatility and liquidity showing strong returns, while others like size and growth exhibit weaker performance[15][16] 2. Factor Name: Technical Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Technical factors aim to capture price and volume-based patterns, focusing on momentum and volatility metrics[17][20][24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Momentum**: Calculated over different time horizons (e.g., 20-day, 60-day, 120-day) - **Volatility**: Measured as the standard deviation of returns over specific periods (e.g., 20-day, 60-day, 120-day) - **Median Deviation**: Captures the median absolute deviation of returns[27] - **Factor Evaluation**: High-momentum and high-volatility stocks generally outperform, but certain periods show negative returns for these factors, especially in the 120-day horizon[17][27] 3. Factor Name: Fundamental Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Fundamental factors are derived from financial statements, focusing on profitability, growth, and valuation metrics[17][20][24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Static Financial Metrics**: Return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and profit margins - **Growth Metrics**: Earnings growth, revenue growth, and cash flow growth - **Surprise Metrics**: Earnings and revenue surprises relative to analyst expectations[19][21][23] - **Factor Evaluation**: Growth and surprise factors perform well, while static financial metrics like ROA and ROE show weaker performance in certain periods[19][21][23] --- Factor Backtesting Results Barra Factors - **Volatility**: Weekly return: 0.75%, Monthly return: 2.73% - **Liquidity**: Weekly return: 0.68%, Monthly return: 1.37% - **Size**: Weekly return: -1.45%, Monthly return: -3.60%[15][16] Technical Factors - **20-day Momentum**: Weekly return: -1.81%, Monthly return: -6.16% - **60-day Volatility**: Weekly return: -1.79%, Monthly return: -0.74% - **120-day Momentum**: Weekly return: -1.68%, Monthly return: -0.80%[27] Fundamental Factors - **ROA Growth**: Weekly return: 0.23%, Monthly return: 1.31% - **Earnings Surprise**: Weekly return: 0.20%, Monthly return: 1.11% - **Revenue Growth**: Weekly return: 0.17%, Monthly return: 0.77%[19][21][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with initial coverage [1] Core Views - The company aims to enhance its e-commerce capabilities and optimize its product structure to drive sales growth, particularly in the vitamin water segment, which is expected to follow industry trends towards healthier beverage options [4][17] - The company reported a slight increase in total revenue for 2024, with a total revenue of 1.415 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.22% [4][13] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected at 39.08%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 15.82%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points [4][13] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.03 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.1 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 394 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.47 [3] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 320 million yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 16.17% to 66 million yuan [5][14] - The projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 1.519 billion yuan, 1.644 billion yuan, and 1.764 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 7.31%, 8.25%, and 7.32% [8][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on building a second growth curve through the introduction of vitamin water, leveraging its clean ingredient profile and higher vitamin C content compared to competitors [7][17] - A dealer empowerment plan is being implemented to support distributors with differentiated strategies based on regional and channel characteristics [6][15] Market Trends - The soft drink industry is witnessing trends towards lighter flavors, health benefits, and sugar-free options, which the company aims to capitalize on with its new product lines [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated resilience in its performance, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching $2.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.78%, and a net profit of $292 million, up 1.74% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company is focusing on store expansion and innovation, with plans to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025 and aims to reach 20,000 stores by 2026 [9][10]. - The company has seen improvements in same-store sales and operational efficiency, with same-store sales holding steady and transaction volume increasing by 6% year-on-year [5][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 348.00, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1,299.10 billion [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.21% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.23 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a restaurant profit margin of 18.6%, an increase of 100 basis points year-on-year, and an operating profit margin of 13.4%, up 80 basis points year-on-year [5][10]. - The company’s revenue growth projections for 2025 to 2027 are 4.6%, 6.3%, and 5.7%, respectively, with net profit growth of 2.2%, 11.0%, and 12.4% [10][12]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its operational efficiency through initiatives like the "Fresh Eye" and "Red Eye" programs, which leverage artificial intelligence to reduce costs [5][10]. - The company is also committed to returning value to shareholders, with $2.62 billion allocated for shareholder returns in Q1 2025, including stock buybacks and cash dividends [9][10].

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the observation of industry diffusion indices; Detailed Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly changes in diffusion indices for various industries, ranking them based on their performance. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Advancing Stocks}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks}} $; Model Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant returns in some periods and notable drawdowns in others[6][14][27] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data; Detailed Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factor scores, which are derived from the GRU network's analysis of trading data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor Score} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model has achieved substantial excess returns by capturing trading information, though it has faced challenges in certain market conditions[7][14][34] Model Backtest Results - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 0.72%, Excess Return: 0.11%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -2.26%[32] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 1.07%, Excess Return: 0.44%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -3.71%[37] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed using GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level trading data; Detailed Construction Process: The factor scores are calculated based on the GRU network's output, which evaluates the trading data to rank industries. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor Score} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor has shown significant improvements in certain industries, indicating its effectiveness in capturing trading information[7][14][35] Factor Backtest Results - GRU Industry Factor, Top Industries: Automotive (2.84), Steel (1.85), Media (1.48), Power Equipment and New Energy (1.35), Communication (0.88), Coal (0.66)[7][14][35]

证券研究报告：医药生物|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-19 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7401.23 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 8490.25 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6070.89 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -21% -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡明子 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110001 Email:caimingzi@cnpsec.com 分析师:陈成 SAC 登记编号:S1340524020001 Email:chencheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《医药 2024&2025Q1 总结——关注现 金流、盈利能力优先改善品种》 - 2025.05.15 医药生物行业报告 （2025.05.12-2025.05.18） 特朗普计划降低美国药品价格，CXO 企业有望受益 l 一周观点 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with initial coverage [1] Core Views - The company aims to enhance its e-commerce capabilities and optimize its product structure to drive sales growth, particularly in the vitamin water segment, which is expected to follow industry trends towards healthier beverage options [4][17] - The company reported a slight increase in total revenue for 2024, with a total revenue of 1.415 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.22% [4][13] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected at 39.08%, an increase attributed to a decline in raw material prices [4][13] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.03 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.1 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 394 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.47 [3] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 320 million yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 16.17% to 66 million yuan [5][14] - The projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 1.519 billion yuan, 1.644 billion yuan, and 1.764 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 7.31%, 8.25%, and 7.32% [8][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on building a second growth curve through the introduction of vitamin water products, leveraging clean and healthy ingredient profiles to differentiate from competitors [17] - A dealer empowerment plan is being implemented to support distributors with tailored strategies based on regional and channel characteristics [6][15] Market Trends - The soft drink industry is witnessing trends towards lighter flavors, health benefits, and sugar-free options, which the company is aligning with through its product development strategies [17] - The company plans to launch a new brand, "Li Guifei," focusing on traditional Chinese health concepts, further diversifying its product offerings [7][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching $2.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.78%, and net profit of $292 million, up 1.74% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company is focusing on store expansion and innovation, aiming to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching 20,000 stores by 2026 [9][10]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in same-store sales and a significant contribution from the delivery segment, which has seen a 13% year-on-year growth [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 348.00, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1,299.10 billion [3]. - The company has a total of 16,642 stores, with 247 new stores added in Q1 2025, of which 62 are franchise stores [5][9]. - The first major shareholder is JP Morgan Chase & Co. [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a restaurant profit margin of 18.6%, an increase of 100 basis points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and improved operational efficiency [6][10]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4.6%, 6.3%, and 5.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 2.2%, 11.0%, and 12.4% [10][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $2.49, $2.77, and $3.11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing innovative measures, including menu updates and new business models, to expand its target market and increase market share [9][10]. - The report indicates a strong focus on shareholder returns, with $262 million returned to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $172 million in stock buybacks and $90 million in cash dividends [9][10].