Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: October 13, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to move in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter. The 30 - 10 and 10 - 1 year Treasury yield spreads have reflected the risk preference repair, and the current bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure is expected to ease, there may be opportunities for monetary easing, and redemption pressure will persist. The bond market may alternate between repair and adjustment, with repair driven by allocation value and adjustment due to redemption pressure. If there is an opportunity for monetary easing, the emotional repair will accelerate, followed by faster unwinding and selling [3][10]. - After the holiday, liquidity enters the seasonal easing window at the beginning of the quarter. The marginal easing of the capital market has intensified, and the current capital price has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of history, with the central level dropping back to the policy rate. The continued decline in capital prices has promoted the warming of easing expectations and the repair of bond market sentiment [3][10]. - The short - end is in a high - allocation value range, and the long - short term spread has fully priced in the risk preference repair. The current pricing level is close to the historical average, so the long - short term spread is reasonably priced, which can control the risk of further upward movement of the long - end. The downward drive of the long - end depends on the decline of risk preference or the opportunity of monetary easing [3][12]. - Recently, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and bond market trading is "better to stop than to chase". The risk - aversion sentiment comes from international geopolitics with high uncertainty, the disturbance of redemption problems still exists during the market repair, and the yield is about to fall to the chip - intensive area. Therefore, although the bond market has recovered under the drive of risk - aversion sentiment, the yield is unlikely to return to the state of rapid decline, and chasing the rise requires caution [4][14]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Is it time to chase or stop the risk - aversion sentiment? - **Market Outlook**: The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The yield spreads have reflected risk preference repair, and the market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, there may be monetary easing opportunities, and redemption pressure will continue. The market may alternate between repair and adjustment [10]. - **Liquidity Analysis**: After the holiday, liquidity enters the seasonal easing window at the beginning of the quarter. The capital price has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of history, and the continued decline has promoted the warming of easing expectations and bond market sentiment. This is related to the calendar effect of funds and the central bank's liquidity management [10]. - **Short - end and Term Spread Analysis**: The short - end is in a high - allocation value range as the risk of capital tightening is low. The long - short term spread has fully priced in the risk preference repair, and the current pricing is close to the historical average, which can control the long - end upward risk. The long - end downward drive depends on risk preference decline or monetary easing [12]. - **Risk - aversion and Trading Advice**: The risk - aversion sentiment comes from international geopolitics with high uncertainty. The redemption problem still disturbs the market, and the yield is about to fall to the chip - intensive area. Bond market trading is "better to stop than to chase" [14][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for price increases in copper due to supply disruptions and tariff impacts, suggesting that recent price pullbacks may present good buying opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, amid renewed tariff concerns between China and the US, recommending an increased allocation to gold [5] - The report notes significant price increases in cobalt intermediate products, forecasting continued price growth in 2026-2027 due to supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report discusses the tightening supply of rare earths due to new export controls, which may lead to price increases in the domestic market [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7554.83, with a 52-week high of 7783.14 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper rose by 0.76%, aluminum by 2.20%, zinc by 0.95%, and lead by 1.44%. Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up by 3.80% and silver by 1.44% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 14,579 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,602 tons in aluminum, and an increase of 17,175 tons in lead [30]

证券研究报告：银行|行业周报 证券研究报告：银行|金融数据预测月报 发布时间：2025-10-11 行业投资评级 中性 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 3981.95 | | 52 周最高 | 4670.31 | | 52 周最低 | 3596.91 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《进入四季度银行负债端压力如何》 - 2025.09.29 金融数据预测月报 （2025.09.01-2025.09.30） 9 月社融增速或持续下探，新增信贷同比多增 l 投资要点 （1）预计 9 月新增人民币贷款（信贷口径）约 17000 亿元，同 比多增约 1100 亿元：9 月不同类型企业经营情况整体改善但仍现分 化，大型企业供需两 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with 888 million domestic trips taken, an increase of 123 million compared to the previous year. Total spending reached 809 billion, up 108.2 billion from the previous year, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [4][5] - The report emphasizes the trend of consumers prioritizing experiences over material goods, reflecting a shift towards "paying for emotions and experiences" in travel choices [14][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 8596.85, with a 52-week high of 9343.57 and a low of 7320.11 [1] Travel and Tourism Data - Daily average travel volume reached a historical high of 304 million during the holiday, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The report notes that railway, road, waterway, and civil aviation all saw increases in passenger volume [5][6] - The average hotel occupancy rate during the holiday was only 58%, down from 75% the previous year, with average room prices decreasing by 18% [9] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 2.7%, with significant growth in organic food sales, which rose by 27.9% [7][8] - The average price of domestic flights remained stable at 849 yuan, showing little change compared to previous years [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new consumption opportunities in sectors like trendy toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [17] - It also recommends attention to cyclical sectors such as liquor, hotels, and restaurants, anticipating a recovery in these areas due to policy support [17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading digital intelligent operation (AIOps) service provider, focusing on communication, information, and energy networks, supported by its "Qushi" platform to enhance operational efficiency and market valuation [5][6]. - The company is leveraging its 20 years of industry know-how and data advantages to drive AI transformation across its three main business segments, which is expected to enhance business value and market valuation [6][29]. - The company is strategically investing in the "Wuxiang Cloud Valley" intelligent computing center, which is expected to significantly boost its computing power and service capabilities, particularly in collaboration with Alibaba [7][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 49.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 140 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 104 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.7% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 55.28 [4]. Business Transformation - The company is transitioning from traditional service provision to intelligent operations, with a focus on AI-driven solutions across its core business areas [18]. - The company has established a comprehensive service network across China, enhancing its operational capabilities [18]. AI Infrastructure Development - The company is investing 36 billion yuan to develop the Wuxiang Cloud Valley intelligent computing center, which will significantly enhance its computing capabilities [47][50]. - The first phase of the center has been completed, providing 1000P computing power, with plans for further expansion [50][52]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 48.87 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [5]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.60 billion, 5.07 billion, and 6.31 billion yuan, with significant growth expected in 2026 [9][59]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 102.91 billion, 123.70 billion, and 158.57 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth trajectory [59]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI applications in the ASEAN region, leveraging its geographical advantages and established partnerships [8][54]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, particularly in the ASEAN market, with a revenue increase of 77.81% in the first half of 2025 [58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - OpenAI's Sora 2 represents a significant technological upgrade, addressing previous issues with audio-visual synchronization and physical realism, marking a transformative moment in the creative field akin to a "ChatGPT moment" [6][8] - The launch of the Sora App signifies OpenAI's strategic shift from a single dialogue tool to an ecosystem-based social platform, enhancing user engagement and monetization opportunities [11][15] - The AI video generation market is projected to grow from $615 million in 2024 to $717 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% expected to reach $2.563 billion by 2032 [20][18] - OpenAI is rapidly building a new ecosystem around video generation, focusing on "granular control" and "revenue sharing" to connect IP holders with creators, thus transforming the video creation landscape [22][21] - The demand for AI computing power is expected to increase exponentially due to Sora 2's multi-modal training requirements, with OpenAI planning to expand its computing capacity significantly over the next eight years [27][30] Summary by Sections Section 1: Sora's Launch and Upgrades - Sora 2 introduces three major upgrades, enhancing physical accuracy, audio-visual synchronization, and consistency across scenes, thus expanding creative possibilities [6][8] - The Sora App features revolutionary functions like "Cameos" and "Remix," positioning it as a potential leader in AI-driven social tools [14][11] - OpenAI's strategic transition to an ecosystem platform aims to leverage its existing user base of 800 million weekly active users for value creation [15] Section 2: AI Video Generation Market - The AI video generation market is expected to grow significantly, with marketing and advertising sectors leading in market share due to increased demand for high-quality content [20][18] - OpenAI's focus on IP-driven ecosystems aims to create new revenue models for creators and IP holders, allowing for more creative freedom and monetization opportunities [22][21] Section 3: Computing Power Expansion - Sora 2 is anticipated to drive a substantial increase in computing power requirements, with estimates suggesting the need for thousands of NVIDIA H100 AI accelerator cards for model training [27][30] - OpenAI has initiated a massive expansion of its computing infrastructure, with contracts worth approximately $1 trillion signed to secure necessary computational resources [30][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The semiconductor business is driving significant profit growth, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 expected to be approximately 2.677 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders estimated between 501 million and 531 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.89% to 38.82% [4] - The company is the only domestic supplier fully mastering the core R&D technology and production process for CMP polishing pads, solidifying its leading position in the domestic market [5] - The company is expanding its product offerings in CMP polishing liquids and cleaning liquids, with significant growth in sales and customer acceptance [6][7] - The high-end wafer photoresist business is progressing rapidly, with nearly 30 products developed and several entering the testing phase [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.779 billion, 4.648 billion, and 5.611 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 719.65 million, 948.36 million, and 1.263 billion yuan [9] - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 25.14% in 2024, followed by 13.24% in 2025, and further growth in subsequent years [12] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.76 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.33 yuan respectively [12]

Group 1: Domestic Travel Trends - During the National Day holiday, the total cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 2.432 billion, with an average of 304 million daily, reflecting a 6.2% increase compared to 2024 and a 331.03% increase compared to 2019[1] - Road travel remains the primary mode of transportation, accounting for 92.56% of total trips, with 198 million road trips recorded, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%[11] - Waterway travel has seen a significant increase, with 10.05% growth year-on-year, totaling 10.7846 million trips during the holiday[12] Group 2: Tourism and Consumption - Cross-province travel orders increased by 45% year-on-year, with orders for inter-provincial border cities rising by 58%[14] - Tourists are staying longer in the same city, with a 50% increase in visitors staying 7-8 days compared to 2024[15] - National retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in consumer spending[23] Group 3: International Risks - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant economic impacts, with estimated losses of $15 billion per week and a potential GDP growth reduction of 0.2 percentage points[32] - Political uncertainty in France following the resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu may hinder fiscal reforms and impact the EU's economic recovery[36] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi, may boost market sentiment in the short term, but long-term fiscal risks remain a concern due to high debt levels[40]

Economic Overview - The current U.S. economy exhibits a unique combination of "strong consumption + weak labor market," attributed to companies absorbing tariff impacts without significant price increases, stabilizing consumer purchasing power[1] - In contrast to 2021, when companies could raise prices to offset costs due to high demand and inflation expectations, 2025 has seen weakened pricing power, leading to reduced investment and hiring[1] Market Trends - Overall, the U.S. economy shows relative resilience, with moderate expansion, while Europe remains weak and Japan's new leadership hints at a more accommodative policy, suggesting a potential stabilization and rebound in the dollar index[2] - The dollar index increased by 1.07% during the holiday period, influenced by expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes in Japan[23] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were reported at 218,000, while continuing claims stood at 1.926 million, indicating a downward trend in unemployment claims[12] - The ISM services PMI for September was reported at 50, below the expected 51.7, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1, reflecting mixed signals in the labor market[12] Risks and Challenges - There is a risk that U.S. companies may pass significant cost pressures onto consumers, potentially leading to rising inflation and weakened consumption[3] - The new Japanese government under Kishi may face challenges in policy direction due to congressional divisions, which could undermine the logic of dollar stabilization[3] Commodity Market Performance - During the holiday period, WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.29%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.15%[26] - Copper prices surged by 4.90%, and gold prices rose by 5.09%, surpassing the $4,000 mark, indicating strong demand in the commodities market[26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 557 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.40%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -226 million yuan, a decline of 50.84% [5]. - The IP derivative business has significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a 46.43% year-on-year increase, while the overall gross margin improved by 8.21 percentage points to 31.87% [6]. - The successful release of the original IP film "The King's Avatar 2" has boosted the company's commercial capabilities, achieving a box office of over 400 million yuan within 24 days of release [7]. - The company is expanding its short drama offerings, with a strong performance in both domestic and international markets, including the launch of the short drama app FlareFlow, which has seen rapid user growth [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 27.06 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19.7 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 557 million yuan, with a net profit of -226 million yuan. The revenue from digital content licensing was 311 million yuan, while IP derivative revenue reached 237 million yuan [5][6]. Business Segments - The digital content licensing business accounted for 55.95% of total revenue, while IP derivatives contributed 42.66% [6]. - The gross margin for digital content licensing improved to 24.47%, and for IP derivatives, it reached 41.88% [6]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.4 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan, and 1.6 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 14 million yuan, 130 million yuan, and 316 million yuan [10][12].