Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In Q1 2025, the credit spreads of the bond market across all tenors and ratings generally narrowed, and the credit differentiation among credit bonds of all tenors decreased at the end of Q1. Industry credit spreads of industrial bonds also narrowed across the board, while the medium - credit - rated (AA - grade) spreads of the real estate industry continued to widen. The spreads of urban investment bonds at all levels generally narrowed, but the credit differentiation of long - term urban investment bonds intensified [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit Spread Overall Narrowed (1) Spreads of All Tenors and Ratings Generally Narrowed - **1 - year Tenor**: In Q1 2025, the spreads of all credit ratings showed a volatile downward trend. Compared with the end of Q4 2024, the spreads of AAA, AA +, AA, and AA - grades narrowed by 19.17BP, about 25BP, and 37.17BP respectively [5][6]. - **3 - year Tenor**: The spreads of all ratings narrowed significantly compared with the previous quarter. AA +, AA, and AA - grades had relatively large narrowing amplitudes of 24.24BP, 25.24BP, and 29.74BP respectively, while the narrowing amplitude of the high - grade (AAA) was relatively small [10][11]. - **5 - year Tenor**: The spreads of AA +, AA, and AA - grades narrowed slightly by 5.67BP, 9.17BP, and 5.17BP respectively compared with the previous quarter, while the spread of AAA - grade was basically the same as the previous quarter [18]. (2) The Spread Difference between Low - grade and High - grade Increased In Q1 2025, the spread difference of the 1 - year tenor decreased continuously, while the spread differences of the 3 - year and 5 - year tenors rebounded slightly in March after two consecutive months of decline. By the end of Q1, the spread differences of the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year tenors decreased by 18BP, 15BP, and 5.5BP respectively compared with the end of Q4 2024, indicating a decrease in credit differentiation [21]. 2. Industry Credit Spreads Narrowed across the Board, and the Spread of the Medium - Credit - Rated Real Estate Industry Continued to Widen - **Overall Industry Situation**: In Q1 2025, the credit spreads of all 23 selected Shenwan industries narrowed significantly compared with the previous quarter. The spreads of the pharmaceutical biology, automobile, coal mining, and comprehensive industries narrowed the most, while those of the public utilities, power, and food and beverage industries narrowed relatively less [25]. - **Medium - Credit - Rated Real Estate Industry**: The AA - grade spread of the real estate industry widened by 43.65BP compared with the previous quarter. Although the real estate investment and sales showed signs of stabilization and recovery, AA - grade real estate enterprises were mostly troubled private real - estate developers with relatively high credit risks [30]. 3. Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds at All Levels Generally Narrowed - **1 - year Tenor**: Except for the AA - grade, the spreads of other levels of 1 - year urban investment bonds narrowed significantly compared with the previous quarter, with a narrowing amplitude of about 20BP. The government's debt - resolution policy helped to ease the credit risk of urban investment bonds [32]. - **3 - year Tenor**: The spreads of all levels of 3 - year urban investment bonds showed a volatile narrowing trend. By the end of Q1, the spreads of AAA, AA +, AA, and AA - grades decreased by 21.75BP, 25.15BP, 29.75BP, and 10.25BP respectively compared with the previous quarter [36]. - **5 - year Tenor**: The spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend. The spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA grades narrowed slightly, while the spread of the AA - grade widened significantly by 53.86BP, which may be related to the market's cautious attitude towards long - term urban investment bonds with weak qualifications [40][41]. - **Credit Differentiation**: The spread differences between the low - grade (AA -) and high - grade (AAA) of urban investment bonds at all tenors showed an overall upward trend in Q1 2025, indicating intensified credit differentiation of long - term urban investment bonds [45].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In Q1 2025, the total social financing increased by 15.18 trillion yuan, with March contributing 5.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.06 trillion yuan[2] - The increase in RMB loans for Q1 2025 was 9.78 trillion yuan, with March alone adding 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55 trillion yuan[2] - The M2 growth rate in March was 7%, unchanged from the previous month, while M1 grew by 1.6%, up from 0.1%[2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Implications - The government bond financing in March was 1.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.02 trillion yuan, indicating strong fiscal support[6] - The increase in corporate loans was significant, with March seeing 2.84 trillion yuan in new loans, a year-on-year increase of 5 billion yuan[11] - Despite the recovery in corporate financing, household loan demand weakened, with March's new household loans at 9.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 447 billion yuan[12] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with potential for rate cuts depending on domestic demand recovery and external economic conditions[3] - The central bank's focus on macro-prudential management of the bond market indicates a cautious approach to interest rate risks[21] - Future monetary policy tools will include targeted cuts and structural tools to support key sectors like technology and infrastructure[36]

远东研究 · 固定收益专题 作 者:柴柯青 邮 箱:research@fecr.com.cn 2025 年商业银行"二永债"市场简析 探寻化债背景下的供需博弈与结构性机遇 摘 要 "二永债"是商业银行二级资本债和永续债的合称，属于商业 银行次级债,是商业银行重要的资本补充工具,具有明显的次级 属性,可吸收部分损失,在受偿顺序上劣后于普通债权且含有减 记条款。 一级市场回顾：1.发行规模方面，2024 年商业银行"二永债" 发行规模创历史新高,主因永续债"赎回年"已至,商业银行选择 "赎旧发新"、摊低负债成本。2.发行类别方面,国有行是"二永债" 发行规模主力,中小银行是"二永债"发行只数主力。3.发行评级方 面,高评级"二永债"发行规模较高,其中二级资本债高等级债券 发行占比逐年上升,永续债高等级债券发行占比呈下降趋势、24 年有所提升。4.发行利率方面,受市场整体利率下行影响,2024年 "二永债"平均发行利率明显下降,中小行信用有所修复。5. 到期 赎回方面,2025年"二永债"到期规模约 1.2 万亿、第三季度为到 期高峰,后续二级资本债到期偿还金额逐年上升、永续债逐渐下 降，中小银行面临再融资压力。 ...

远东研究 · 宏观经济专题 2025 年 3 月 13 日 作 者:柴柯青 邮 箱:research@fecr.com.cn 相关研究报告: 1.《金融"组合拳"支持房地 产止跌回稳 --- 房地产一揽 子增量政策回顾》。 2024.10.29 如何促进房地产市场止跌回稳? 摘 要 《2025年政府工作报告》首次把稳住楼市写进总体要求,在具 体任务中提出"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳",释放坚定稳楼 市信号，稳地产有助于稳经济、稳就业、防风险。 当前房地产市场表现如下:1.成交方面,呈现结构性"止跌回 稳",其中二手房好于新房、核心城市先行复苏,从"以价换量"到"量 价企稳"仍待观察;2.投资方面,当前销售回暖热度仍未传导至投资 端,在市场整体供需缩量的情况下,房地产投资全链条承压;3.资金 方面,销售回款仍为主要来源,直接融资规模尚未恢复。 考虑到经济发展阶段、人口周期以及市场基础迎来新变化,新 一轮地产复苏周期有所拉长。本轮周期呈现以下四个特点:1.经济增 速换挡,房地产业对经济贡献下降,但仍为基础和支柱行业,未来 新发展模式支撑行业发展;2.人口总量和结构拐点均已出现,改善性 需求或将成为需求主力;3 ...

远东研究·行业研究 2025 年 2 月 12 日 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 金融资产投资公司股权投资试点现状及发展分析 作者：简尚波 摘 要 自 2024 年 9 月国家金融监管总局相继印发《关于做好金融资 产投资公司股权投资扩大试点工作的通知》《关于扩大金融资产投 资公司股权投资试点范围的通知》以来，国内多家金融资产投资公 司（AIC）在北京、天津、上海、重庆、南京、杭州、合肥、济南 等试点城市设立 AIC 股权投资基金的案例加速涌现，这些基金以 支持各地科技创新为主力方向。此举顺应了金融系统做好科技金融 大文章和我国加快新质生产力培育和发展的重要战略导向。 众多 AIC 股权投资基金采取跨界联合发起，包括地方国资投 资平台、AIC、科技企业和地方重点国企等，AIC 作为金融资产投 资公司股权投资试点的核心企业，发挥重要出资人角色，促进了银 行系的权益资本对于各城市科创领域融资需求深入对接。AIC 基金 案例实践同时显示，这些基金聚焦支持科技创新，助力战略性新兴 产业、未来产业等领域发展，AIC 从中发挥耐心资本的角色。 AIC 基金发展蕴含着新质生产力发展、稳定经济增长势头、增 强 ...

Group 1: Importance of Private Economy - The private economy is a crucial component of the socialist market economy, contributing significantly to economic stability and transformation[14] - As of September 2024, there are 18,086,480 private economic entities in China, accounting for 96.37% of total market entities, with a year-on-year growth of 3.93%[14] - Private enterprises contribute over 70% of technological innovation results in China, including more than 90% of high-tech enterprises[14] Group 2: Challenges in Fair Competition - The draft emphasizes the need for a fair competition environment, addressing issues like market entry barriers and local protectionism[16] - Private enterprises face challenges in public resource transactions, including information asymmetry and stricter contract conditions compared to state-owned enterprises[21] - The report suggests improving transparency in bidding processes and restructuring government-enterprise relationships to enhance competition for private firms[22] Group 3: Financing Conditions for Private Enterprises - Private enterprises' bond issuance has been declining, with their share dropping from 8.63% in 2017 to 1.64% in 2023[23] - In the first half of 2024, private enterprises issued bonds worth 151.33 billion yuan, representing only 1.64% of the total, while state-owned enterprises issued 151,965.45 billion yuan, accounting for 90.87%[23] - The net financing of private enterprises in the bond market has been negative since 2021, with a net outflow of 960.48 billion yuan in 2023[38] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - The report recommends enhancing support for private enterprises in high-yield, technology innovation, and green bonds to improve their market position[42] - It suggests developing credit rating services that do not discriminate based on ownership type to improve private enterprises' access to financing[43] - Encouraging private enterprises to participate in major scientific research projects and improving collaboration between academia and industry are also highlighted as necessary steps[48]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, particularly in the context of export growth and the development of new energy vehicles [3][4]. Core Insights - China's automotive exports have seen significant growth, surpassing 4 million units in just nine months of 2024, with expectations to exceed 5 million units by year-end [3][8]. - The report highlights the dominance of passenger vehicles in exports, which accounted for 85.88% of total automotive exports in the first ten months of 2024 [15]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are gaining traction, with exports growing at a rate significantly higher than the overall automotive export growth, contributing 24.75% to total exports in 2023 [19][21]. - The report notes a shift in export markets, with Russia, Mexico, and the UAE being the top destinations for Chinese automotive exports [22]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Automotive Export Situation - In 2023, China's automotive exports reached 4.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of 56.21%, marking a historical high [8]. - The export value of automotive products also surged, with a total export amount of $101.688 billion in 2023, reflecting a 69% increase from the previous year [11]. 2. Characteristics of Automotive Exports - Passenger vehicles remain the primary export category, with their share of total exports increasing from 79.17% in 2021 to 85.88% in 2024 [15]. - NEVs, while still a smaller segment, have shown remarkable growth, with exports reaching 1.203 million units in 2023, a 77% increase year-on-year [19]. 3. Export Markets - The primary export markets for Chinese automobiles in 2024 include Russia, Mexico, the UAE, Belgium, and Brazil, with Russia being the largest market [22]. - The average export price of Chinese vehicles has risen to $20,000, with higher prices observed in markets like Russia and Belgium [23]. 4. Potential Tariff Risks - The report discusses the impact of potential tariff increases from the EU and the US on China's automotive exports, particularly concerning NEVs and components [4][37]. - It suggests that while the US market poses limited risk due to low dependency, the EU's tariffs could significantly affect competitiveness in that market [37]. 5. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends that automotive companies diversify their export markets and consider localizing production in regions like Southeast Asia and Europe to mitigate tariff impacts [49][50]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing R&D capabilities and product quality to maintain a competitive edge in the global market [55].

Revenue Insights - From January to October 2024, national public fiscal revenue totaled 184,981 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, but the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared to January to September[3] - In October 2024, public fiscal revenue reached 21,922 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.49%, with an increase of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Tax revenue and non-tax revenue both showed significant improvement, with non-tax revenue growth primarily linked to local governments revitalizing state-owned assets[21] Expenditure Trends - National public fiscal expenditure from January to October 2024 was 221,465 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points from January to September[27] - In October 2024, public fiscal expenditure was 19,686 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.37%, indicating a faster expenditure pace[27] - Social security and employment expenditure reached 2,816 billion yuan in October, growing by 15.98% year-on-year, while education expenditure increased by 0.50%[36] Government Fund Dynamics - From January to October 2024, government fund budget revenue totaled 35,462 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points compared to January to September[41] - Local government revenue from land use rights was 26,971 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.7 percentage points from January to September[42] Policy Measures - The government plans to implement comprehensive measures to achieve budget balance and meet annual budget targets, including adjustments to the budget stabilization fund and government fund budget[46] - A series of targeted incremental policy measures have been announced, including support for local governments to resolve hidden debts and measures to stabilize the real estate market[47]

Group 1: Debt Management and Regulations - The report discusses the legal framework governing local government debt limits, including the "Budget Law of the People's Republic of China" and its implementation regulations, which outline the decision-making process for increasing debt limits[4] - A new round of hidden debt replacement involves an increase of CNY 6 trillion in local debt limits for replacing hidden debts, with CNY 800 billion allocated annually for five years from new local government special bonds for debt reduction[1] - The report emphasizes the importance of revitalizing past government debt limits to alleviate fiscal pressure and optimize debt structure, which is crucial under the current macroeconomic conditions[1] Group 2: Economic Impact and Debt Replacement - The report refutes the notion that debt replacement cannot effectively promote economic growth, highlighting its role in reducing debt risk, saving interest expenses, and enhancing local development momentum[1] - It is estimated that the total hidden debt will decrease significantly from CNY 14.3 trillion at the end of 2023 to CNY 5.9 trillion by the end of 2026, and further to CNY 2.3 trillion by 2028 due to the new debt replacement measures[18] - The debt replacement measures are expected to save approximately CNY 600 billion in interest expenses over five years, providing tangible benefits for economic development[18] Group 3: City Investment Companies and Credit Impact - The new round of hidden debt replacement may help lower financing costs for city investment companies, although the specific impact will depend on market reactions and policy implementation outcomes[1] - The report notes that city investment companies' debt increased from CNY 16.53 trillion at the end of 2014 to CNY 61.47 trillion at the end of 2023, indicating a significant rise in their debt levels[12] - The credit spreads of city investment bonds have narrowed, reflecting market confidence in the credit status of these companies following the debt replacement initiatives[29]

Tax Policy - Harris proposes increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% to enhance government revenue and support public services[14] - Trump advocates reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 20%, with further reductions for companies producing in the U.S.[29] - Harris aims to provide tax relief for low-income individuals, including expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit and increasing child tax credits[15] Trade Policy - Harris supports targeted tariffs on industries related to national security, particularly against China[19] - Trump emphasizes using tariffs as negotiation tools, proposing up to 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and other high tariffs on various goods[20] - Both candidates exhibit protectionist tendencies, but Trump's approach is more aggressive and confrontational[19] Energy Policy - Harris promotes renewable energy development and aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, aligning with the Inflation Reduction Act[21] - Trump supports traditional energy industries and plans to provide tax incentives for oil and gas drilling, opposing renewable energy initiatives[23] - Harris's policies are expected to accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy, while Trump's policies may hinder it[22] Immigration Policy - Harris focuses on addressing root causes of immigration by improving conditions in Central America and enhancing border security[24] - Trump emphasizes building a border wall and implementing strict immigration controls, including large-scale deportations[25] - The candidates' differing approaches reflect their broader philosophies on social integration and national security[24] Defense and Foreign Policy - Harris advocates for increased defense spending and continued support for Ukraine, emphasizing a proactive foreign policy[26] - Trump suggests a more isolationist approach, proposing to reduce U.S. involvement in international conflicts and support for Ukraine[27] - The candidates' foreign policy strategies will significantly influence America's global role and alliances[26]