投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素有限，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：上周末伊朗阿巴斯港发生爆炸引发市场关注。我们认为，此次伊朗港口爆炸事件对于该 国甲醇外运影响较为有限。首先，因为伊朗甲醇主要通过阿萨鲁耶港出口，而爆炸发生在阿巴斯港 的沙希德拉贾伊港，对甲 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看弱 | 美国关税政策预期放松，期价累 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 计涨幅较大，多头了结意愿强 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 上游镍矿强势，下游不锈钢弱势 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：近期黄金高位回落，沪金在 780 上方企稳，一度反弹至 800 元/克。黄金的冲高回落一方 面是由于美国总统特朗普表示对华关税过高，预期将大幅下降，短期美关税放缓，金价避险需求下降； 另一方面，黄金无论是年初以来还是 4 月以来均已 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, gold prices rose and then fell with increased volatility. On Wednesday, the Shanghai gold price dropped by over 50 yuan/gram from its intraday high. The decline was due to Trump's statement on reducing China-US tariffs, which decreased the safe-haven demand for gold, and the large price increases since the beginning of the year and in April, leading to stronger profit-taking intentions among long positions [3][24]. - In the medium to long term, the main drivers for gold price increases are the safe-haven and asset allocation demands brought about by deglobalization and de-dollarization, and the upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, the gold price's rise and fall have broken the strong pattern, with long positions more willing to sell, putting pressure on the gold price. Considering the approaching May Day holiday and the significant fluctuations during the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the market may be cautious, and the gold price is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday [3][24]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - No specific content provided other than a reference to the dollar index linkage chart [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From April 17th to April 25th, COMEX gold decreased by 0.33%, COMEX silver increased by 1.46%, SHFE gold futures decreased by 0.26%, and SHFE silver futures increased by 1.46%. The dollar index rose by 0.16%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.18%. The 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.09, the S&P 500 rose by 4.59%, and US crude oil futures decreased by 1.99%. The COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 1.77%, and the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 1.69%. The SPDR gold ETF decreased by 6.02, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.91 [8] 2. The US Dollar and US Treasuries Hit Bottom and Rebounded, While Gold Rose and Then Fell - Since April, there has been a significant divergence between the US dollar index and the US Treasury yield, mainly due to the large-scale selling of US Treasuries in the financial market, which was caused by both the liquidity crisis and the pessimistic outlook on the US long-term economy [10]. - Trump's statement on reducing China-US tariffs improved the global macro environment, increased market risk appetite, led to the bottoming and rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury prices, and caused gold to rise and then fall. The relaxation of US tariff policies also led to a significant rebound in US stocks, reduced market panic, and caused the gold price to fall from its high [10][13] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of April 22nd, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 12,811 contracts, short positions increased by 14,021 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 26,832 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - In the first quarter, the holdings of major global gold ETFs increased significantly, especially after Trump took office, reflecting the increased safe-haven demand in the context of deglobalization [17] - Since April, the US Treasury yield spread has continued to widen, mainly because the market's pessimistic outlook on the US economy has led to the selling of 10-year US Treasuries, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise continuously, while the 2-year US Treasury yield mainly depends on the Fed's interest rate [20] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short-term decline and long-term upward trend of the gold price, as well as the expected weak oscillation before the holiday [24]

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report on April 28, 2025, providing views and analysis on the iron ore 2509 contract [1]. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to continue its low - level oscillatory trend. The supply and demand pattern is weakly stable, and the price is affected by both supporting and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the limit - production policy situation [1][2]. Summary by Section Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term (within one week) view is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is also oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, leading to low - level oscillations of the ore price [1]. Market Driving Logic - The expectation of limit - production policies has reappeared, putting pressure on raw material prices. Although the high rigid demand and pre - holiday restocking support the ore demand, the inventory has not decreased, indicating that the fundamentals of the ore have not substantially improved. There is still an expectation of supply recovery and concerns about demand reaching its peak, so the negative factors remain, and the ore price is expected to continue its low - level oscillatory trend [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 4 月 28 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 节前有色震荡运行 核心观点 铜：期价冲高后震荡，节前预计维持震荡运行 上周铜价冲高后整体在 7.8 万下方震荡整理。期价的上涨主要受 益于海外宏观回暖，即美国关税政策放松预期，以及产业支撑。产业 层面，上游加工费持续下跌，低利润下炼厂减产预期上升；4 月中旬 下游生产积极性较高，补库意愿上升，基差和月差持续走强，对应电 解铜社会库存下降明显。五一节前下游存在备货需求，这一定程度上 也助推了铜价。海外宏观扰动边际下降，国内产业支撑不断增强。短 期铜价已修复至 2 月的水 ...

www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/22 | -141.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/21 | -140.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种晨会纪要 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-04-28 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：国际原油市场风云突变，此前承诺作出补偿性减产的哈萨克斯坦宣称该国石油产量水平 由国家利益决定，不是 OPEC+产油国。哈萨克斯坦这样的言论无疑让市场进一步确定 OPEC+超产国家 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for both coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) are mainly "oscillation". Coking coal has a short - term, medium - term "oscillation" and intraday "oscillation - weak" view, with an overall "oscillation" approach. Coke also has short - term, medium - term "oscillation" and intraday "oscillation - weak" view, following an "oscillation" approach [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: In March and April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment was relatively stable with high production levels. In March, Shanxi's raw coal production increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, it continued to run at a high level with expected year - on - year positive growth. Also, Mongolia coal imports in April improved compared to March. The supply of coking coal remains loose with a bearish fundamental. The latest quotation of Mongolia coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 1008 yuan/ton. Due to strong macro disturbances and increased long - short game, the main contract of coking coal maintains low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to domestic demand - boosting policies [5]. Coke - **Core Logic**: This week, coke shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the main futures contract maintains low - level oscillation. However, there are strong macro disturbances. There are repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April with high uncertainty, and China's domestic demand - boosting policies are expected. The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro policies. In the long - run, the cost drag from loose coking coal supply and concerns about terminal demand limit the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro disturbances and marginal improvement in coke's own fundamentals support the price. The main coke contract is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to domestic policy [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 压减政策发酵，钢价触底回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 压减政策预期再起，提振钢市情绪，期价上周五夜盘集体回升，而螺纹钢产量小幅回落，供应 弱稳运行，同周度表需环比下降，时需求再度走弱，旺季表现不佳，供稳需弱局面下基本面改善有 限，钢价继续承压运行，相对利好则是压减政策提振，多空因素博弈钢价下延续震荡运行，谨防限 产政策证伪。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策面利好预期与外部不确定性 风险并存 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五今日各股指均冲高回落，全天震荡整理。股市成交金额为 11370 亿元，较上日缩量 19 亿元。近期股市的成交量能保持相对稳定，一方 ...