Report Overview - Report Type: Stainless Steel Daily Report - Writing Time: April 18, 2025 - Review Cycle: Daily - Researcher: Dai Xiaohong - Consulting License Number: Z0000213 [1] 1. Market Performance - As of the close on April 17, the opening price of the stainless steel main contract SS2506 was 12,845, reaching a high of 12,915 and a low of 12,810, closing at 12,845, up 25 points or 0.20% for the day, with an amplitude of 1.96%. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 16,448 lots to 136,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,069 lots to 133,000 lots. The capital outflow was 7.27 million yuan, and the settled capital was 1.196 billion yuan. - The stainless steel warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 182,752 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day. - Among the top 20 futures dealers in terms of open - interest ranking, the total long positions were 97,549 lots, an increase of 1,996 lots from the previous day, and the total short positions were 100,538 lots, an increase of 1,906 lots from the previous day. - The basis was 468 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] 2. Core Views - The continuous decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and the fall of high - carbon ferrochrome prices have weakened the cost support for stainless steel. - The Indonesian PNBP policy is set to be officially implemented on April 26, which may boost the cost support for stainless steel. However, the market has already anticipated and priced in this policy, so its short - term direct impact on prices is limited. - In April, stainless steel supply remains at a high level, while demand is in the off - season. Downstream buyers maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, with overall inquiries and transactions being average. Social inventory is digested slowly, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, putting pressure on prices. - Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies of various countries and the implementation of the Indonesian PNBP policy. If the nickel - iron price rebounds after the policy is implemented, it will strongly support the stainless steel price [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported variety: Shanghai Lead [1] - Writing time: April 16, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Views - In the macro - aspect, the change in Trump's underlying demands for tariffs may be the reason for his fluctuating attitude, and there is an objective probability that China and the US will return to the negotiation table [3] - In the supply - demand aspect, on the supply side, due to new production capacity in 2025, the supply of lead concentrates is expected to increase by 1.5%, but low processing fees and a shortage of scrap batteries affect the supply volume; on the demand side, the replacement policy boosts the demand for electric bicycles and improves data center storage, but the penetration of lithium batteries continuously squeezes market share, and overall demand is still in the off - season and mainly for rigid needs [3] - In the technical aspect, from the hourly line, the market sentiment has declined, leading to continuous drops in futures prices; from the daily line, the futures price has fallen after breaking through a new resistance level; in the short term, the price may maintain a range - bound operation [3]

撰写品种：黄金 撰写时间：2025/04/16 回顾周期：当日 研究员： 王建超 咨询证号（Z0015736） 黄金日报：横盘结束强势上涨，美国再次发力关税战 一：盘面情况 周二 comex 黄金期货 06 主力合约高位强势横盘，开盘价 3226.1 美元/盎司，最高 3250.9 美元/盎司，最低 3225.5 美元/盎司，收盘 3246.8 美元/盎司，全天上涨 20.1 美元/盎司，涨幅 0.62%。 沪金期货 2506 主力合约周三大幅上涨，开盘价 763.94 元/克，最 高价 782.38 元/克，最低价 762.3 元/克，最终收盘在 781.6 元/克，全 天上涨 17.16 元/克，涨幅 2.24%。特朗普重新推动贸易战，引发风险资 产下跌，推动避险资产黄金大涨。 二： 基本面 周二美国财长曾拟定一个关税"终局方案"，暂停对其他国家征收关 税，把精力放在对付中国身上，建立一个以美方为主的阵营，然后来和中 国接触。这实际上升级了中美之间的贸易战。 特朗普在与中国进行关税战的谈判诉求方面有最新进展：他想和中 国谈关税，并自行创设条件呼吁中国进行谈判。根据彭博社的报告，针对 美国希望中国能参与进来 ...

撰写品种：沪锌 撰写时间：2025/4/15 回顾周期：当日 研究员：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪锌日度报告 价格方面，当日沪锌各合约普遍承压，近月合约 ZN2504 收于 22,800 元/吨，跌 幅 0.48%，ZN2505 合约跌 0.73%至 22,545 元/吨，远月合约 ZN2603 则下跌 0.41% 至 21,870 元/吨。 供应端，锌矿加工费（TC）持续上涨，进口矿到港量增加推动港口库存维持在 30 万吨以上。国内锌矿复产进度符合预期，3 月精锌产量环比增长 13.7%，4 月预计维持 高位。冶炼端利润继续修复，前期检修企业已基本复产，供应宽松预期强化。 需求端，初级加工行业订单稳健，但终端采购偏谨慎。 库存方面，截至 4 月 15 日，SHFE 锌注册仓单 7,658 吨，较前一周下降 6.84%。 总体来看，短期沪锌或维持区间震荡为主，关注美国对华关税政策落地时点及国内 稳增长政策力度。 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 图1：沪锌期货加权价格走势 图片来源：文华财经行情软件 风险揭示及 ...

撰写品种：沪铅 撰写时间 2025/04/14 回顾周期：周度 研究分析师：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铅周度报告 一．宏观面 1. 海外方面：美联储主席鲍威尔发言关税对经济影响远超预期，可能使得通胀上升和增 长减缓，2025 年降息两次预期得到维持。3 月会议纪要和多位美联储官员讲话，表示对于经 济前景怀有谨慎的态度。其次 3 月全球制造业 PMI 下降到 49.6%，表示着制造业复苏仍然乏 力。 三．技术面 小时线来看，期价阶梯抬升。日线来看，期价出现探底回升，今天出现十字阴 线，但低高位出现抬升。周线回落到前期低点得到支撑。月线仍处于 60 均线上方， 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 向上趋势没变。 四．后市展望 2. 国内方面：1-2 月规模以上工业增加值同比上升。中央汇金继续增持 ETF，稳定市场信 心。 二．基本面 1. 供应端：电解铅炼厂货源紧张，部分挺价意愿强烈；再生铅市场复产不及预期，废电 瓶回收量减少，再生铅增量受限。河南，安徽等炼厂原料货量紧张，部分炼厂受环保和运输受 限制，供应进一步减 ...

撰写品种：不锈钢 撰写时间：2025-4-15 回顾周期：日度 研究所：戴小红 咨询证号（Z0000213） 不锈钢日度报告 品种名称：不锈钢 截止 4 月 14 日收市，不锈钢主力合约 SS2506 合约开盘价 12825，最高 12860 点， 最低 12735 点，收于 12805 点、当日上涨 40 点，涨幅 0.31%，振幅 0.98%。主力合约 成交增加 10835 手至 13.3 万手，持仓量增加 8119 手至 12.7 万手，资金流入 7611 万， 沉淀资金 11.39 亿。上期所不锈钢仓单录得 191564 吨，较上一日减少 4427 吨。持仓 排名前 20 席期商持仓，多单总计 29030 手，较上日减少 3978 手，空单总计 33236 手， 较上日减少 3404 手。基差为 538 元/吨，较上日走缩 127 元/吨。 一、 影响行情的主要因素 不锈钢期货高开，对现货市场报价有一定的带动作用，不过由于市场走向仍不清 晰，整体价格以持稳为主。期货盘面的走强在一定程度上带动了现货市场，促使部分市 场报价上调，但市场中存在部分低价货源，且观望情绪浓厚，限制了价格上涨幅度。镍 矿方面，印 ...

撰写品种：烧碱 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 14 日 回顾周期： 周度 研究员：何宁 咨询证号（Z0001219） 烧碱周度报 受整体宏观情绪影响，上周一开盘国内商品跳空低开，能化板块遭受冲击，周内烧 碱小幅反弹后继续走弱，主力合约周三盘中跌至 2267 元/吨，再次刷新年内价格低点。 截至 4 月 10 日，全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 47.13 万吨，环比下 跌 0.65%，同比下调 5.51%。山东地区主力下游采购液碱价格周内再次下调，周边市 场成交价格跟跌。在目前高库存的情况下，市场多持观望态度，下游补库意愿较低。主 要下游氧化铝供应压力仍存，仓单库存近 25 万吨，现货价格持续走低，目前氧化铝厂 亏损进一步加剧，开工率或将进一步下调，对于烧碱需求呈负反馈。非铝下游受关税政 策影响较大，对于烧碱需求谨慎。当前烧碱在高开工率和高库存的局面下，预计未来走 势仍将偏弱，后市需关注下游采购进度及宏观政策变化带来的扰动。 库存情况，全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 47.13 万吨(湿吨)，环 比下跌 0.65%，同比下调 5.51%。本周全国液碱样本企业库容比 27.82 ...

撰写品种：股指期货 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 11 日 回顾周期：日度 分析师： 武吟秋 咨询证号：Z0018989 股指期货日报：特朗普关税政策似儿戏，美资产遭抛 售 整理来看，特朗普这种近乎儿戏的关税政策，使得国外对于特朗普失去了信任， 美国的相关资产被重新抛售，美国的股债汇被三杀！而在目前的贸易摩擦态势逐渐明 朗以后，中国在面对关税方面的问题，已经相对来说比较游刃有余，国内也将回到解 决本土自身的基本面的问题上来，比如如何拓展新的出口渠道，如果出口转内销等问 题都需要一些实质性的政策或者措施来推动。因此，短期内股指行情会出现震荡行情 的走势，短期如遇到回踩不必过于担忧和惊慌。 三： 股指期货日 K 线图 一：盘面情况： （20250410）昨天，上个交易日，A 股继续反弹。四大指数高开后震荡，上证 50 收涨 0.60%，沪深 300 收涨 1.31%，中证 500 收涨 1.92%，中证 1000 收涨 2.34%。市场全天呈现震荡走势。市场延续普涨格局，市场热点快速轮动。板块上 看，一级行业全线上涨，商贸零售、纺织服饰、有色、汽车、传媒涨幅居前，煤炭、 公共事业涨幅最后。全市场 4948 只个 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 10, affected by the US suspending the additional tariffs on some countries for 90 days, crude oil and other oils rose sharply. The BMD Malaysian palm oil rose from a low level, and the domestic palm oil futures and spot prices also increased. The domestic palm oil market is currently mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the short - term Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market, with intense long - short game on the futures market [3][5][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On April 10, the BMD Malaysian palm oil closed at 4201 ringgit/ton, up 1.33% from the settlement price; the domestic continuous palm oil P2505 closed at 8754 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from the settlement price, with trading volume increasing to 641,100 lots and positions decreasing to 201,400 lots. The P2509 contract closed at 8186 yuan/ton, up 2.12% from the settlement price, with trading volume of 420,400 lots and positions increasing to 261,100 lots. The 05 - 09 spread narrowed to 568 yuan/ton, the soybean - palm main 05 - period spread was - 1080 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm main 05 - period spread was 511 yuan/ton [3] - On April 10, the spot price of palm oil at each port was 9200 - 9350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import profit was - 405.3 yuan/ton, the basis dropped to - 100.67 yuan/ton; the soybean - palm spot spread was - 1201.65 yuan/ton [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis - According to MPOB data, the production of Malaysian palm oil in March was 1.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; the end - of - month inventory was 1.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, the first increase in the past six months. High - frequency shipping data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of April increased by 29.29% - 52.79% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered tariffs, and the US tariff policy implementation was postponed, giving Malaysian palm oil an obvious export advantage [10] - The domestic palm oil has rigid - demand transactions, the inventory is still at a low level, the import profit is continuously low, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a need for replenishment in the later stage [10] 3. Future Outlook - Currently, domestic palm oil is mainly for rigid - demand procurement. In the short term, the Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market, and the long - short game on the futures market is intense. The price of the P2505 contract on the futures market has rebounded from the bottom, and the closing price is temporarily blocked by the upper 5 - day moving average. In the short term, under the stimulus of news, the price of the P2505 contract of palm oil futures may fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average [12]

撰写品种：国债期货 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 11 日 回顾周期：日度 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 分析师：武吟秋 咨询证号（Z0018989） 二、国债期货图文 图1：二年国债主力040690 国债期货日度报告 国债期货： 2025 年 4 月 10 日周四早盘开盘二年国债主力指数，五年国债主力指数出现震荡走高 的走势，日 K 线收阳线，十年国债主力指数收出假阳线，三十国债主力指数出现低开 震荡走高的走势，日 K 线收出假阳十字线并留向下跳空缺口，需要重点关注下一交易 日是否延续高位震荡的走势行情。 一、国债期货表格： | | 指标 | 上日 | 本日 | 涨跌幅 | | 备注 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | 二年国债主力 | 102.672 | 102.702 | +0.03% | 4 | 月10 | 日收盘 | | | 五年国债主力 | 106.435 | 106.500 | +0.07% | 4 | 月10 | ...