报告周期:月报 成文日期: 20250906 王建超（从业资格号：F3077383; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015736） 货8月报:美联储9月降息黄金已经 1反应、意价年来 联营主权 上海 核心观点： 当下美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点概率 90%、降息 50 个基点概率 10%。黄金结束 4个多月的横盘，转入上行趋势行情。 1 期货市场及现货市场回顾 8月黄金市场继续在横盘。市场围绕着美联储降息和特朗普施压 美联储两个核心事件展开。8月特朗普继续施压美联储,要求其马上 大幅降息,8月8日美联储理事库格勒正式辞职,特朗普任命米兰短 期接替库格勒的位置到26年1月结束。另外美联储理事库克因办理 房屋抵押贷款提供不实信息,特朗普要罢免库克,为此双方闹上法 庭、而９月４日美国司法部已对库克展开刑事调查,并发出传票。 市场目前紧盯美联储 9 月份降息。8 月 22 日鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全 球央行行长年会上称对美联储降息持开放态度,引发市场赞同美联 វេ 9 月降息的预期；8 月 29 日美国公布的 PEC 经济数据符合市场预 期,市场认为美联储9月降息的概率继续增大;9月5日美国劳工部 公布的 8 月非农数据低 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Optimistic macro expectations, low inventories, and consumer recovery have led to an upward trend in copper prices. With the approaching likely Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected 'Golden September and Silver October' consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to continue rising in the near - term [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices rose significantly. On September 3, 2025, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 80,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous trading day. - The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Metals Market was 80,500 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It was at a premium of 90 - 300 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2509 contract. The supply of imported and domestic copper in the spot market has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The start time of LME's Asian trading on Wednesday was postponed by 90 minutes, and the reason is unknown. - The lack of confidence in the copper market was due to weak downstream consumption. However, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected consumption peak season in China, copper prices started to rise. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, up 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery of the economy and providing some support for copper demand. - The recent rise in gold prices has also boosted copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Although the Shanghai copper main contract once broke through the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, the overall trend was a bit sluggish. After the price soared, long - position holders were more willing to reduce their positions, resulting in a long upper shadow on the K - line. - Given the low spot inventory and the expected consumption peak season, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18, copper prices may have formed an upward trend in the near - term [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Caustic Soda [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] 2. Market Conditions 2.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: The main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, fluctuated on August 28, 2025, closing at 2,692 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.37% from the previous settlement price. Trading volume decreased by 63,000 lots to 366,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 7,343 lots to 113,000 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: Among the 12 caustic soda futures contracts, only the Caustic Soda 2607 contract rose slightly by 0.18%, while the rest declined. The total open interest of the variety was 261,700 lots, a decrease of 12,871 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, decreased by 7,343 lots, with 98.92 million yuan of funds flowing out [5]. - **Related Quotes**: The put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed better than the call options today, with relatively low overall trading volume [7]. 2.2 Spot Market - In Shandong, the prices of 32% caustic soda remained mostly stable, with some companies with low inventories and good sales slightly increasing prices. The mainstream transaction prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda were 870 - 930 yuan/ton in southwestern Shandong, 840 - 890 yuan/ton in central and eastern Shandong, and 880 - 900 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 1,340 - 1,380 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - As of August 28, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 379,600 wet tons, a 4.25% decrease from the previous period and a 28.84% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 21.73%, a 0.65% decrease from the previous period. The capacity utilization ratios in the northwest, north, and southwest regions increased, while those in the central, eastern, southern, and northeastern regions decreased [10][11]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The main caustic soda SH601 contract closed with a small negative line today, supported by the 10 - day moving average below [12]. 4. Market Outlook - Today, the main caustic soda futures contract, Caustic Soda 2601, continued to fluctuate weakly, while the spot price remained stable. This week, the inventory of sample enterprises continued to decline, with a 4.25% decrease from the previous period. Orders outside Shandong will be suspended due to a major event on September 3, and non - aluminum downstream industries are resisting high - priced goods, resulting in slower overall sales. In the eastern region, supply is tight due to equipment maintenance, which supports prices. Future price trends will depend on inventory changes and downstream procurement rhythms [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market during the week revolved around the expectations of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, and gold continued to fluctuate [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Disk Situation - Gold fluctuated throughout the week, with the market moving in response to Powell's speech at the central bank symposium on Friday night. The Shanghai Gold main contract 2510 opened at 775.92 yuan/gram, reached a high of 777.84 yuan/gram, a low of 770.38 yuan/gram, and closed at 773.40 yuan/gram, showing a slight weekly decline of 2.4 yuan/gram (compared to the closing price of the last trading day of the previous week), a decrease of 0.31%. Gold prices were suppressed by the hawkish expectations of Powell's speech on Friday [2]. - The report also provides detailed trading data for different delivery months of gold futures contracts, including opening prices, high and low prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading amounts [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The gold market during the week was influenced by Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium and the conflict between Trump and the Fed. Trump called for Fed Governor Cook to resign, aiming to push for more pro - Trump individuals to enter the Fed and to pressure the Fed to start cutting interest rates earlier [8][9]. - The entire market in August has revolved around the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. When events or data support a September rate cut, gold prices rise; when they are unfavorable, gold prices are suppressed [9]. - The market also paid attention to the meeting between some European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelensky, and Trump in the US to discuss a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. However, there were few meaningful results from these talks, suggesting that the war may continue for some time [9]. - Before Powell's speech on Friday, three Fed officials communicated with the market, creating an atmosphere that Powell's speech would be hawkish. But after Powell's speech, the market rallied, with risk assets, gold, Bitcoin, and US Treasuries rising, and the US dollar index falling sharply. The Fed later guided the market, stating that a September rate cut is possible but not the start of a new rate - cut cycle, and there is no consensus within the Fed on a September rate cut [10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Fed's potential September interest - rate cut. Fed officials are interacting with the market to keep it rational and stable. As the rate - cut date approaches, gold prices are expected to become more volatile [11][12].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on iron ore futures, covering the futures market, spot market, influencing factors, and market outlook [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - On August 21, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated. The price rose in the night session, fell after the day - session opening, reached a low of 770 points, then rose around 10:15 am, and fell again near the end of the session, closing at 772.5 points with a 0.98% increase. The trading volume was 281,800 lots, a decrease of 7,600 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 11,185 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a reverse market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts rose by 4 to 7.5 points throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 839,690 lots, an increase of 1,746 lots from the previous trading day, with the i2601 contract's open interest increasing by 11,185 lots [5] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 31.6 yuan/ton, a minimum of 23.6 yuan/ton, and 30.4 yuan/ton on the day [7] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 3,100 lots, a minimum of 2,000 lots, and 2,000 lots on the day [8] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Macroeconomic Environment Impact - Overseas macro - disturbances: The Fed's July meeting minutes sent hawkish signals, strengthening the US dollar index and suppressing commodity prices. Domestically, the stable LPR rate reflects the expectation of loose monetary policy, increasing market sentiment volatility [9] 3.2 Demand - side Support and Concerns - High hot metal production and decent steel mill profits provide short - term support for iron ore prices. However, with the approaching of a major event on September 3, steel mill production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may be tightened, and port transportation may be restricted, causing concerns about weakening future demand [10] 4. Market Outlook - The main iron ore futures contract rebounded with narrow fluctuations on the day. The fundamentals are in a weak equilibrium stage of both supply and demand increasing. High hot metal production provides rigid demand support, but supply is rising and inventory accumulation pressure is emerging. Technically, the price shows significant range - bound characteristics, with intense competition in the 770 - 780 yuan/ton range. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the improvement of the USDA August supply - demand report and the rising weather risk premium, the market sentiment is high. The CBOT soybean futures have risen continuously, supporting the domestic soybean meal market price. The increase in the cost of imported soybeans also provides strong support. However, the current abundant supply of imported soybeans, high operating rate of oil mills, and high inventory pressure of soybean meal may limit the increase in the soybean meal market price. It is expected that the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, mainly with interval adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On August 14, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract first rose and then fell, closing at 3157 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day. The trading volume for the day was 1,347,343 lots, and the open interest was 1,990,701 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The soybean meal futures contracts generally rose slightly throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,655,321 lots, a decrease of 25,411 lots from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotation**: On August 14, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions declined slightly. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 2990 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3090 yuan, unchanged; in Rizhao it was 3010 yuan, down 10 yuan; and in Dongguan it was 2980 yuan, down 10 yuan [7][8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 lots to 10,925 lots, with the increase mainly from Dongguan Fuyuan with 2,000 new lots [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Last week (August 3 - August 9), Brazil exported 2.2402 million tons of soybeans and 284,000 tons of soybean meal. This week (August 10 - August 16), it plans to export 2.34 million tons of soybeans and 63,900 tons of soybean meal. The import cost of soybeans continued to rise, with US soybeans up 41 yuan/ton, reaching a 3 - month high; Brazilian soybeans up 19 yuan/ton, breaking a more than 1 - year high; and Argentine soybeans up 17 yuan/ton, hitting a 7 - month high [9]. - **Basis Data**: A basis trend chart is provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [10].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 12, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Beans - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 12, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE Bean No.1 futures fluctuated weakly. The opening price was 4,067 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,073 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,015 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,034 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day. The trading volume was 141,159 lots, and the open interest was 185,359 lots, with a daily increase of 30,232 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Increase in Open Interest (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,087 | -11 | -0.27% | 62,101 | 47,467 | -24,040 | 0.81% | | A2511 | 4,034 | -29 | -0.71% | 141,159 | 185,359 | 30,232 | 1.43% | | A2601 | 4,031 | -24 | -0.59% | 38,907 | 63,644 | 10,304 | 1.09% | | A2603 | 4,031 | -1 | -0.47% | 5,184 | 25,892 | 377 | 0.94% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today's basis of Bean No.1 was -14 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen. The total registered warehouse receipts of Bean No.1 today were 12,865 lots, a decrease of 258 lots from the previous trading day [5]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average quotation of domestic soybeans was 4,054 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.17%. In recent days, the spot price of soybeans has continued to rise steadily. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.8283 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. Currently, the inventory accumulation of port soybeans has slowed down [8][9]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's near - month landed duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed an overall upward trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was reported at 4,839.38 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was reported at 4,024.47 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was reported at 3,867.78 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a steady - to - rising trend [10].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, with a tug - of - war between weak reality and policy expectations. Mid - term directional breakthroughs depend on the actual implementation of capacity - clearing policies and the substantial recovery of demand during the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The market's kinetic energy conversion depends on inventory reduction rates and the pace of macro - level positive news realization [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 13, 2025, the FG2601 glass futures contract oscillated around the moving average during the night and early sessions. In the afternoon, short - sellers gained the upper hand, pushing the price down to the daily low and closing with a negative line. The price dropped by 19 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decline, and closed at 1214 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.2177 million lots, and the open interest was 1.0237 million lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - All 12 glass futures contracts closed lower. The total open interest of the variety was 1.8795 million lots, a decrease of 59,402 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2601 increased by 88,800 lots [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On the day, put options on glass outperformed call options [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of glass continued to be weak. Prices in Northeast China remained stable, while prices in other regions were under pressure and declined [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Factors - Supply side: The daily melting volume of float glass in production reached 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase month - on - month. The operating rate was 75.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%. The weekly output increased by 0.16% to 1.117 million tons. In August, there were 2 cold - repaired and 2 restarted production lines, with capacity remaining basically unchanged. Demand side: The demand for real - estate completion did not improve. Deep - processing enterprises faced difficulties in collecting funds, and new orders decreased year - on - year. They mainly focused on consuming raw - sheet inventories [11] 3.3.2 Inventory Analysis - The overall inventory of glass enterprises increased from a downward trend. It rose by 2.348 million weight boxes, a 3.95% increase, reaching a total of 61.847 million weight boxes. Inventories of glass enterprises in all regions increased [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the resumption of production at Anhui Huainan Alkali Factory and the reduction in photovoltaic glass production will put pressure on soda ash prices, but the cost line of the ammonia - soda process and the marginal improvement in light soda ash demand provide phased support. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the game between capacity expansion and demand improvement. Before the supply - demand pattern changes significantly, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Key factors to track in the future include the progress of plant resumption, the cold - repair scale of photovoltaic glass, and the implementation of policy details [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On August 13, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a "high - opening and low - going" trend. For the soda ash 2601 (SA601) contract, the opening price was 1408 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1423 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1375 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 2.49 million lots, a decrease of 745,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.218 million lots, an increase of 64,000 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: - Futures prices: For the soda ash 2509 contract, the opening price was 1293 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.47%; for the soda ash 2601 contract, the opening price was 1408 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.36%; for the soda ash 2605 contract, the opening price was 1458 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.42% [4]. - Domestic spot prices: Most domestic soda ash prices remained stable on August 13, 2025. For example, in the national market, the price of light soda ash and heavy soda ash remained unchanged at 1250 yuan/ton and 1350 yuan/ton respectively. The price of float glass decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1169 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [5]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Policy - related**: Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Stable Growth Plan for Ten Key Industries" mentioned the optimization of soda ash production capacity, the detailed rules for eliminating old - fashioned production capacity in late August have not been implemented, and the market's expectations for policy strength have cooled [6]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: - Maintenance continuation: Jiangsu Xuzhou Fengcheng (600,000 tons/year) has been under maintenance for 23 days, Anhui Huainan Alkali Factory (600,000 tons/year) postponed its resumption of production due to equipment problems, and Tangshan Sanyou (2.3 million tons/year) reduced its load to 70%, affecting a daily output of about 28,000 tons in total. - Capacity release: Shandong Haitian (1.5 million tons/year) increased its load to 70%, and Shandong Haihua (3 million tons/year) operated at a reduced load. The supply side showed a pattern of "local contraction, overall looseness" [6].

Report Overview - Research Variety: Beans - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal Futures - Researcher: Qi Jianhua Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the price of the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 first declined and then rose, with short - term technical support and a slight weekly increase. However, affected by factors such as the decline of CBOT soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean meal spot supply, and limited demand, the soybean meal market price was under pressure. The average spot price in most regions of the country fell below 2,800 yuan/ton, and the rebound of the futures contract M2509 was restricted, with limited upside potential [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Market Overall Performance - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 reduced positions and increased trading volume. The price was mainly in a strong and volatile adjustment, and the weekly K - line was finally a positive line [3] 1.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Name | Week Open Price | High Price | Low Price | Week Closing Price | Week Settlement Price | Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Turnover (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | m2507 | 2,820 | 2,820 | 2,781 | 2,802 | 2,802 | - 4 | 166 | 2,016 | - 166 | 0.05 | | m2508 | 2,934 | 2,966 | 2,908 | 2,957 | 2,952 | 15 | 224,458 | 93,250 | - 43,408 | 65.84 | | m2509 | 2,954 | 2,985 | 2,925 | 2,976 | 2,971 | 14 | 4,712,933 | 2,008,008 | - 115,107 | 1,390.19 | | m2511 | 2,992 | 3,023 | 2,959 | 3,013 | 3,009 | 13 | 475,180 | 657,765 | 56,886 | 142.03 | | m2512 | 3,023 | 3,046 | 3,002 | 3,037 | 3,034 | 7 | 80,196 | 123,631 | 13,228 | 24.23 | | m2601 | 3,007 | 3,024 | 2,978 | 3,015 | 3,009 | 3 | 1,220,183 | 1,114,718 | 55,939 | 365.7 | | m2603 | 2,864 | 2,883 | 2,845 | 2,875 | 2,871 | 10 | 297,454 | 375,793 | 62,855 | 85.09 | | m2605 | 2,711 | 2,722 | 2,696 | 2,704 | 2,704 | - 14 | 531,616 | 562,845 | 80,217 | 143.78 | | Sub - total for Soybean Meal | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7,542,186 | 4,938,026 | 110,444 | 2,216.9 | | Total | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7,542,186 | 4,938,026 | 110,444 | 2,216.9 | [7] 2. Influencing Factor Analysis 2.1 This Week's Important News and Event Reviews - **US Soybeans**: According to the USDA monthly report, the expected soybean planting area in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 83.4 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 acres. The expected ending inventory of US soybeans in July for the 2025/2026 season is 310 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 15 million bushels [11][12] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: Brazil's ANEC stated that the expected soybean export volume in July is 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase compared to 9.6 million tons in the same period last year. The expected soybean meal export volume is 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase compared to 2.01 million tons in the same period last year. Additionally, Safras&Mercado said that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season increased by 1.2% year - on - year to 48.2 million hectares [12] - **Domestic Situation**: Mvsteel showed that in the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%, 56,300 tons lower than the forecast. It is expected that the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills will increase slightly next week [12] 3. Conclusion and Outlook - Currently, the main domestic soybean meal futures contract M2509 is gradually shifting positions. In the short term, there is a lack of obvious driving factors to guide the price. Coupled with the fact that the domestic soybean meal spot supply is abundant, the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 may continue the range - bound market. In the future, changes in US soybean planting weather, international trade policies, and domestic supply - demand conditions may be the key factors affecting soybean meal prices [13]