首席点评： 连续 14 个月增加黄金储备 截至 2025 年 12 月末，我国外汇储备规模为 33579 亿美元，环比上升 115 亿美元， 再创 2015 年 12 月以来新高；黄金储备规模为 7415 万盎司，环比增加 3 万盎司， 为连续第 14 个月增加。央行公告，1 月 8 日将开展 11000 亿元 3 个月期买断式 逆回购操作，连续第三个月等量续作。中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，2025 年 12 月份，全球制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，较上月微幅下降 0.1 个百分点，连续 10 个月运行在 49%-50%的区间内。美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。ADP 数据显示，美国企业 12 月私 营部门就业人数增加 4.1 万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市场预期。 重点品种：黄金、股指 贵金属：贵金属震荡整理。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的 流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行 ...

首席点评： 金属走势分化 新华社北京 12 月 30 日电 中央农村工作会议 29 日至 30 日在北京召开。会议指出，加强农业关键核心技术攻关和科技成果 高效转化应用，因地制宜发展农业新质生产力。国务院总理李强日前签署国务院令，公布《中华人民共和国增值税法实施 条例》（以下简称《条例》），自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起施行。 2026 年国补主要有四类，即汽车报废、汽车置换、家电和数 码、智能产品。与 2025 年国补相比，少了家装、电动自行车两大类。 2026 年第一批 625 亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品 以旧换新资金计划已提前下达。工信部等四部门印发《汽车行业数字化转型实施方案》，方案提出，加强关键技术产品攻 关。重点攻关仿真设计、研发测试、中间件与操作系统等基础软件，智能机器人、智能检测设备等关键装备，以及信息物 理系统等关键核心技术，鼓励企业应用自主可控技术产品，提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。 重点品种：贵金属， 股指，铜 一、当日主要新闻关注 贵金属 ： 白银有所修复。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7% ，低于预期的 3.1% ，核心 CPI 同比 2.6% ，低于预期的 3% 。 C ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the mixed signals in various sectors, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, while emphasizing the potential for policy support and market recovery in the near future [1][2][3][4]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged to a historical high, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which stands at 2.7% year-on-year, below the anticipated 3.1% [2][17]. - The overall downtrend in CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, supporting the long-term upward trend in precious metals due to factors like weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases [2][17]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock markets were closed, but previous trading saw an increase in stock indices, particularly in the defense and military sectors, with a total market turnover of 1.94 trillion yuan [3][10]. - The financing balance increased by 10.127 billion yuan, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares, supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment [3][10]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices saw a slight increase of 0.38%, with Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reaching a two-and-a-half-year high of 7.1 million barrels in October, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [4][13]. - Despite geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the overall trend for crude oil remains downward [4][13]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with an addition of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][17]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [7][12]. Industry News - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice to Sunflower regarding its asset acquisition plan, indicating ongoing corporate activities and market dynamics [8]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index showed fluctuations, with expectations for price stability as shipping companies prepare for increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, a table shows the possibility of a bullish or bearish trend for various commodities [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The US November CPI data came in lower than expected, with the core CPI rising at the slowest pace since early 2021. This, along with the Fed's possible rate - cut in January, has influenced market sentiment. In China, the start of Hainan's full - island customs closure and policies in the PV industry are significant events [1][6][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: In the A - share market, a long - term bullish trend is expected due to policy support, capital inflow, and industrial development. Global capital flow and risk appetite may increase with the Fed's December rate cut. In the bond market, the loose monetary policy supports short - term treasury bond prices [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.当日主要新闻关注 (Main News on the Day) - **International News**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 were 224,000, slightly lower than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in January rose from 26.6% to 28.8% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure, with a series of policies implemented. In the PV industry, relevant departments aim to curb cut - throat competition and promote healthy development [7]. 3.2.外盘每日收益情况 (Daily Returns of Overseas Markets) - The report presents the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market products on December 17 and 18, 2025, including the S&P 500, ICE Brent crude oil, and others [9]. 3.3.主要品种早盘评论 (Morning Comments on Major Commodities) - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: With positive factors such as policy improvement, capital expansion, and industrial support, the A - share market's long - term bullish trend is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's rate cut in December may further boost market sentiment [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations maintained a loose money supply. The slow growth of the US core CPI and the possible Fed rate cut influenced the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports reached a two - and - a - half - year high in October. There are uncertainties regarding US sanctions on Russia's energy industry, and the overall downward trend remains [12]. - **Methanol**: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventories declined, but imports are expected to increase. Short - term methanol prices are expected to be weak [13]. - **Rubber**: Overseas supply is increasing, while domestic supply is entering the off - season. Demand for all - steel tires is stable, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Futures prices are consolidating. Downstream demand has reached a high level, and short - term attention should be paid to cost trends and supply - demand digestion [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. Glass inventory is decreasing faster, while soda ash needs more time. The real - estate industry's recovery in 2026 is a key factor [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are volatile. The downward CPI trend provides room for rate cuts, and weak employment data supports further Fed rate cuts. The long - term upward trend remains [17]. - **Copper**: The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply - demand difference is not significant, and market sentiment should be monitored [19]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and demand is acceptable. As the holidays approach, the impact of weakening demand on prices should be watched [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Terminal demand is strong, but there is a risk of a seasonal decline. The short - term supply pressure is moderate, and the price may face a correction if the inventory reduction slows down [21][22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures prices are oscillating. After a significant decline, the market is expected to stabilize with support from downstream restocking and winter demand [23]. - **Steel**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may rebound, but the medium - term outlook is weak [24]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is oscillating. Steel mills' profitability is declining, and they will maintain on - demand procurement. Short - term prices are expected to be slightly stronger [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Brazilian soybean sowing progress is behind schedule, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic market is supported by high - cost imports, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are supported by export tax cuts, but inventory pressure remains. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to range - bound. Domestic supply is increasing seasonally, and the market is waiting for a recovery in sentiment [29]. - **Cotton**: Although there is a new cotton harvest, the sales progress is fast. The possible reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and improved Sino - US relations support prices, but there is resistance at high levels [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC 02 contract declined. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, but the cargo - booking pressure will increase before the Spring Festival, and the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure [31].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. November CPI data showed a lower-than-expected increase, with the core CPI rising by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth since early 2021, and the overall CPI increasing by 2.7%, below the expected 3% [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. November core CPI increased by 2.6%, the slowest growth since early 2021, and overall CPI rose by 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% [1][2]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a mixed result, with 64,000 new jobs added, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][18]. - The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in January increased from 26.6% to 28.8% following the CPI data [7]. Group 2: Precious Metals - The lower-than-expected CPI data has raised questions in the market, but the overall downward trend in CPI provides room for rate cuts, supporting precious metal prices [2][18]. - Long-term factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank gold purchases continue to support precious metals, despite short-term volatility [2][18]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The European shipping index saw a decline, with the 02 contract dropping by 3.06%. However, shipping companies are maintaining a price support stance for late December and early January [3][31]. - The MSC and Maersk have adjusted their pricing strategies, with Maersk's rates for January showing a decrease compared to earlier quotes, indicating potential pressure on freight rates [3][31]. Group 4: Commodity Insights - The dual focus on coking coal and coke shows a stable market with slight fluctuations in inventory and production levels, indicating a potential stabilization in the near future [2][23]. - The iron ore market is experiencing slight price fluctuations, with a decrease in daily iron output and ongoing adjustments in steel mill procurement strategies [2][25]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is facing slow export sales, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's reports providing limited bullish support, leading to a generally weak adjustment in soybean prices [26]. - The sugar market is under pressure from seasonal supply increases and high production costs, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment despite low absolute price levels [28]. Group 6: Energy Sector - The crude oil market is influenced by Saudi Arabia's record high export levels, while geopolitical tensions may lead to new sanctions affecting energy supplies [13]. - Methanol prices are experiencing slight declines, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [14]. Group 7: Financial Markets - The stock indices are showing mixed performance, with the banking sector leading gains, while overall market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming economic meetings [10]. - The bond market is experiencing slight increases in prices, supported by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Fed [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move essential for economic stability and security, rather than a temporary measure [1] - The article highlights the need to accelerate the filling of consumption gaps to make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth [1] - November economic data shows that industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, service production index grew by 4.2%, and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% [1][7] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with manufacturing investment up by 1.9% and real estate development investment down by 15.9% [1][7] Group 2 - In the silver market, the price is supported by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and liquidity improvement, maintaining a long-term upward trend despite short-term fluctuations [2][19] - Cotton prices are expected to remain strong due to rapid sales and potential reductions in planting area in Xinjiang, alongside improved expectations for textile exports due to easing US-China relations [2][30] - The coking coal market is experiencing weak demand, with a focus on policy expectations in December to provide upward momentum during the off-season [3][24] Group 3 - The article discusses the divergence in economic and inflation outlooks among Federal Reserve officials, indicating mixed signals for future monetary policy [6] - The industrial and information technology ministry has approved the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicles for trial in designated areas, signaling advancements in the smart connected vehicle industry [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand relationship, market sentiment, and price trends of each product, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Highlights - **Tin**: Fed's balance - sheet expansion boosts market risk appetite, and supply - side tightness leads to a strong - biased shock in tin prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply remains unimproved, and the futures prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices of coal and coke continue to fall, and the futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and its support level is around 8000 yuan. Soybean oil follows the rise of rapeseed oil, and the basis of the May contract is supported [5]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the interest - rate cut, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling. It's recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and consider a bull - spread strategy on dips [6][7][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. It's recommended to go long on T and TL contracts on dips and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The risk of a downturn in the US labor market increases the expectation of Fed's easing, leading to a sharp rise in precious metals. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, silver to be cautious about chasing highs, and platinum to maintain a low - buying strategy [12][13][14]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. It's recommended to hold long positions in the long term and pay attention to the support level of 90000 - 91000 yuan [17][20][21]. - **Alumina**: The market is pessimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. It's recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It's recommended to buy on dips [23][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level. It's recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: A weak US dollar, inventory reduction, and TC decline boost zinc prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and a cross - market reverse - arbitrage strategy [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment and fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are expected to be strong. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [31][34][35]. - **Nickel**: After the macro - expectation is settled, the price is under pressure. It's expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 116000 - 120000 yuan [35][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 yuan [38][39][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by strong capital sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to wait and see [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It's recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to close positions [48][49][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Affected by negative feedback, the steel price is weak. It's recommended to consider a short - position strategy on the January contract's iron - ore - to - steel ratio [50][51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to go short on the 2605 contract [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fall, and the futures price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [57][58][59]. - **Coke**: The second price cut in December is expected to be implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and it's recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive - arbitrage [62][64][65]. - **Pigs**: The pickling demand provides support, but the price is affected by the epidemic. It's recommended to pay attention to the epidemic situation [66][67]. - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to the continuity of supply [68][69][70]. - **Sugar**: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [71]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuates at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to pay attention to the pressure level around 14000 yuan [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the decline is limited [75]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and soybean oil is supported. It's recommended to pay attention to the support level of palm oil at 8000 yuan [76][78]. - **Jujubes**: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to pay attention to the actual sales [79][80]. - **Apples**: The trading is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [81][82]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price is supported at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan [83][84]. - **PTA**: The December supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the first - quarter supply - demand is expected to be loose. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan, and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive - arbitrage is recommended [86][87]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [88]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin [89][90]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost decline drags down the price. It's recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is driven by the oil price and styrene. It's recommended to pay attention to domestic device changes [93]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [96]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure increases, and it's recommended to wait and see [97]. - **PP**: The supply - demand increases, and it's recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [97][98]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, and it's recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [98][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. It's recommended to hold short positions [100][101]. - **PVC**: The oversupply contradiction remains, and the price is expected to decline at the bottom [102]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is high, and the demand contracts. It's recommended to hold short positions [104]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be bearish [105]. - **Natural Rubber**: It's recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500 yuan [105][107]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR price is expected to be under pressure. It's recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 yuan [109][110].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：0 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes that success in futures trading is not about finding a guaranteed method or relying on others for quick profits, but rather understanding the complexities and risks involved [1][2][3] - Many individuals mistakenly believe they can achieve wealth by following others or relying on free theories, which often leads to disappointment and losses [2][3] - The futures market is influenced by various factors including technology, cognition, and luck, and there is no one-size-fits-all approach to achieving consistent profits [1][2] Group 2 - The article highlights that the futures industry has a high failure rate, and not everyone is suited for trading; those who are not should consider exiting the market [2][3] - Certain commodities like gold, silver, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon are mentioned as having the potential for significant profits if traded correctly, while others may yield minimal gains or losses [3] - The importance of reflecting on past performance, whether profitable or not, is stressed, encouraging traders to learn from their experiences and approach the market with caution [3]

Group 1: International News - The U.S. delegation will visit Moscow next week, and President Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the U.S. list for resolving the Ukraine issue as a basis for future negotiations. He stated that if Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from currently controlled areas, Russia will cease military actions; otherwise, military means will be employed to achieve objectives [1][6]. Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development and reviewed the provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance. The meeting emphasized the need to enhance grassroots medical service capabilities [7]. Group 3: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities. The NDRC also highlighted the need to balance speed and bubble risks in the development of embodied intelligence industries, particularly humanoid robots [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a high followed by a pullback. The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged. The market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 5.977 billion yuan to 24,522.65 billion yuan [2][11]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - In the coal market, the double焦 (coking coal and coke) futures showed weak performance, with total positions remaining stable. Steel production slightly increased, but overall inventory continued to decline, primarily driven by rebar. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron production [2][21]. Group 6: Oil Market Analysis - The SC night market for crude oil rose by 1.46%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries was 23.77 million barrels in October, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [3][14].