Core Viewpoint - The recent market fluctuations are seen as a temporary setback, with underlying potential gradually accumulating [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years [1] - The Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates but expressed caution regarding potential rate cuts later in the year due to rising inflation concerns [1] - Foreign investors increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to a new high in July, while Chinese holdings reached a 16-year low [1] Group 2: Stock Market Analysis - U.S. stock indices rose, with the electronic sector leading gains and the metals sector lagging behind, while market turnover reached 3.17 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 12.711 billion yuan to 2.388522 trillion yuan, indicating a more volatile market in September compared to July and August [2] - The market is viewed as entering a consolidation phase after a prolonged uptrend, with differing views among investors leading to increased volatility [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Gold prices fell following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of further cuts later this year [3] - The U.S. retail sales showed strong performance in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - Copper prices experienced a slight increase of 0.1%, with tight supply conditions and high smelting output contributing to market dynamics [4][18] Group 4: Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand visa-free travel and promote service exports, aiming to stimulate local tourism and consumption [6] - The DeepSeek team published a research paper on a new language model, marking a significant advancement in AI technology [7] Group 5: Market Performance - The futures market showed declines across various commodities, including crude oil and agricultural products, with specific price movements noted for each commodity [8][12][25][28] - The shipping index for European routes indicated a downward trend, with significant price adjustments observed in container shipping rates [29]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 9 月 17 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨 ...

金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 9 月 16 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares are experiencing an oscillating rebound with the technology sector leading the way. After a significant rally, A-shares may enter a high-level oscillating pattern. Wait for the volatility to further converge before confirming a better entry point [2][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment remains weak due to the tightening of funds. The short - term bond market may still be sensitive to negative news. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the movement of funds and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy [5][7]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations have been digested. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillating state. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band within the range of $40 - 42 [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Consider shorting the October contract or engaging in a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [11][12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The price is expected to oscillate. The short - term interest - rate cut boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. The long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support [13][17]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Mid - term, consider shorting at high prices. The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to oscillate widely around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand. The macro - environment provides support, while the fundamental improvement is not strong [21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum and the inflection point of inventory [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price upside is limited, while the low inventory provides support [25][28]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to oscillate widely. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust within a range. The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support, but the mid - term supply is abundant [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The raw material cost provides support, but the demand is weak [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the market is affected by news [38][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The steel price is weak. The rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the support levels around 3100 and 3300 respectively. The steel supply and demand have not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage [41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish. The supply is expected to recover, and the demand will increase. The low - level port inventory provides support [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to oscillate. The coal mines are resuming production, and the supply and demand are easing. The price may continue to decline in September [47][49]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to oscillate. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is still room for further cuts. The supply will gradually become loose [50][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The high - yield expectation of US soybeans suppresses the price, but the domestic cost provides support. The downside of domestic meal products is limited [53][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The market supply - demand contradiction is limited. The price has limited room to fall, but the overall supply - demand pressure is still large [56][57]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand of corn are weak, and the price is under pressure. The mid - term trend is weak [58][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures**: - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares showed an oscillating rebound on Wednesday. The TMT sector was strong, while the chemical sector corrected. The four major equity index futures contracts had mixed performances. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and the monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. The capital is tightening, and the bond market sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the central bank's subsequent attitude [5][6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: US 8 - month PPI data was lower than expected, and the demand for the 10 - year Treasury bond auction was strong. Gold and silver prices showed a high - level oscillation. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical events affect the price. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The spot price of container shipping continued to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index showed different trends. The supply of container ships increased, and the demand was affected by the PMI of different regions. The futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [11][12]. Commodity Futures - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The spot price of copper declined slightly. The US 8 - month PPI data boosted the interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The copper price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate [13][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined. The supply was high, the demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and consider shorting at high prices in the mid - term [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum declined slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was high, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The aluminum price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate around the peak - season demand [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by the season, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc declined. The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the demand was about to enter the peak season. The inventory situation was mixed. The zinc price is expected to oscillate, and the upside is limited [25][27][28]. - **Tin**: The spot price of tin declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel declined. The supply of refined nickel was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to adjust within a range [31][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The inventory was slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and pay attention to the raw material and demand [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined. The supply was affected by various factors, and the demand was stable. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and pay attention to the news [38][39][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The cost and profit situation of steel changed. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was in the off - season and was expected to improve seasonally. The inventory was increasing. The steel price is expected to be affected by the supply of coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly. The futures price was stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the demand was expected to increase. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal declined. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was expected to increase. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and decline in September [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke had a mixed performance. The first - round price cut was implemented, and there was still room for further cuts. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to recover. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate [50][51][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The domestic spot price of soybean meal declined slightly, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal was stable, and the trading volume was zero. The high - yield expectation of US soybeans and various supply - demand factors affected the price. The domestic cost provides support [53][54][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs declined slightly. The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly, and the profit of different breeding modes changed. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the price has limited room to fall [56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn had different trends in different regions. The inventory of old - season corn was tight, and the new - season corn was about to be listed. The demand was weak. The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the mid - term trend is weak [58][59].

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 11 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：降息意浓，绿稀红稠 王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。 发改委郑栅洁：努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，下半年不断释放内需潜力， 进一步推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。财政部长蓝佛安：把做强国内大循环 摆到更加突出的位置，持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，全力 支持稳就业稳外贸。中国 8 月 CPI 同比转降 0.4%、核心 CPI 增幅回升至 0.9%， PPI 同比降幅收窄至 2.9%。美国 8 月 PPI 环比负 0.1%，四个月来首次转负，同 比增速 2.6%低于预期，特朗普：没有通胀，鲍威尔必须立即大幅降息。美联储 理事库克或将参与美联储下周决议投票，法官阻止特朗普罢免，美司法部迅速上 诉。 重点品种：股指、双焦、油脂 股指：美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指震荡反弹，通信板块领涨，电力 设备板块领跌，市场成交额 2.00 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 9 日融资余额增加 59.52 亿元至 23034.95 亿元。2025 年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗 口期，四季度为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策， ...

首席点 评 ： 降息意浓，绿稀红稠 王毅同美国国务卿鲁比奥通电话。 发改委郑栅洁：努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，下半年不断释放内需潜力，进一步推动科技创新和产业创新 深度融合。财政部长蓝佛安：把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策，全力支持稳就业稳外贸。中国8月CPI同比转降0.4%、核心CPI增幅回升至0.9%，PPI同比降幅收窄至2.9%。 美国8月PPI环比负0.1%，四个月来首次转负，同比增速2.6%低于预期，特朗普：没有通胀，鲍威尔必须立即大幅降 息。美联储理事库克或将参与美联储下周决议投票，法官阻止特朗普罢免，美司法部迅速上诉。 重点品种：股指、双焦、油脂 股指 ： 美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指震荡反弹，通信板块领涨，电力设备板块领跌，市场成交额2.00万 亿元。资金方面，9月9日融资余额增加59.52亿元至23034.95亿元。2025年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于 政策窗口期，四季度为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓和，美联储9月降息概率增加 进一步提升人民币资产吸引力。当前市场处于"政策底+资金底+估值底 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. In the short - term, some commodities may experience fluctuations, while in the long - term, certain trends are expected to continue. For example, the stock index may have short - term adjustments but a high probability of long - term upward trends, and precious metals may show a relatively strong trend in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [11][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The number of ADP employed in the US in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 104,000 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing the potential of sports consumption and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, including increasing financial support [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", with expected average growth rates for related industries and specific goals by 2026 [7]. b. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures dropped 1.24%, the US dollar index rose 0.21%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.76%, London gold spot decreased 0.22%, London silver dropped 0.83%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 2.18%, ICE No. 2 cotton dropped 0.02%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.59%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.34%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.70%, CBOT wheat fell 0.89%, and CBOT corn rose 0.50% [8]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose, while the previous trading day's stock index continued to correct. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and with the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is enhanced. The market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but short - term adjustments are possible [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.746%. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, economic data, and real - estate policies. The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fluctuated at night. Before the end of the US peak driving season, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, but commercial crude oil inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.18% at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the overall device operating rate and the average operating rate of coal (methanol) to olefin devices both increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber fluctuated narrowly. The price is mainly supported by supply - side factors, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures were in consolidation. The spot market is mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, and it remains to be seen whether the futures stop falling can drive the spot to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fell after profit - taking. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Multiple factors affect the precious metals market, and gold and silver are expected to be strong in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [4][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. With multiple factors at play, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The supply - demand situation may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. Supply and demand both show certain changes, and the price may have a callback risk after a rapid rise. If inventory starts to decline, the price may rise further [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be strong and volatile in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is in a short - term adjustment, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The market is affected by factors such as policy expectations, inventory changes, and demand seasons, and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal fluctuated at night. The US soybean market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The fundamentals of the palm oil market have limited changes, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, with a weak trend expected. The domestic sugar market has both supporting and dragging factors, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of the international market in the short - term [27]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market has a relatively tight supply in the short - term, and the market focuses on the new cotton purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index declined. The short - term market is affected by sentiment and expectations, with an expected volatile trend. The medium - term market may return to the game of off - season freight rates [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial derivatives market, A - shares are in a high - level shock pattern, and bonds are affected by multiple factors with limited adjustment expectations. Precious metals are driven by political instability in Europe and the United States and are expected to rise. The shipping market is expected to fluctuate, and the metal and agricultural product markets have different trends based on supply - demand and macro - factors [2][5][8][13][15][55] - In the commodity futures market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to be affected by interest - rate cut expectations, while aluminum prices are affected by macro - expectations and fundamental improvements. Agricultural products such as soymeal and pork also have their own market characteristics [15][22][55] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, A - shares fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45%. The four major stock index futures contracts mostly declined. Domestic and overseas news affected the market. A - share trading volume remained high, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures fell across the board. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, but the overall liquidity was stable. The bond market was weak due to multiple factors. It is recommended to observe the stock market trend and institutional behavior. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.8% [5][6][7] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high due to political instability in Europe and the United States, with a 1.65% increase. Silver prices also rose slightly. In the future, the price of gold is expected to rise above $3600, and silver may rise above $42, but there are risks [8][10][12] Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot prices are falling, and shipping indices show different trends. The global container capacity has increased, and the futures market rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, and 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [13][14] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price increased, and the macro - level interest - rate cut expectation improved. Supply was affected by various factors, and demand had certain resilience. The copper price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 81000 yuan/ton [15][17][19] - **Alumina**: The spot price decreased, supply increased, and inventory accumulated. The market is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [19][20][21] - **Aluminum**: The spot price increased, supply was at a high level, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a low level year - on - year. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price was stable, supply was affected by the off - season, demand was weak, and the price difference with aluminum was expected to narrow. It is expected to be in a shock - upward trend, with the main contract reference range of 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Zinc**: The spot price increased, supply was loose, demand was about to enter the peak season, and inventory showed different trends at home and abroad. It is expected to be in a shock, with the main contract reference range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [26][27][28] - **Tin**: The spot price increased, supply was tight, demand was weak, and inventory showed different trends. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30] - **Nickel**: The spot price was stable, supply was at a high level, demand was different in different fields, and inventory was at a high level overseas and decreased at home. It is expected to be in an interval adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price increased, raw material prices were firm, supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is expected to be in an interval shock, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton [34][35][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price decreased, supply was in a tight balance, demand was optimistic, and inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to be in a weak wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [37][39][40] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The price showed signs of stabilizing. The cost support was expected to weaken, supply was at a high level, demand was in a seasonal decline and was expected to recover. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and do long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [40][41][44] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price increased, the futures price fluctuated, the supply increased, the demand was affected by steel production, and the inventory showed different trends. It is expected to be in a shock, with the reference range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to do long on iron ore and short on coking coal [47][48] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price was in a weak shock, supply was affected by mine accidents and production suspension, demand decreased due to production restrictions, and inventory was in a marginal decline. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and do long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49][50][51] - **Coke**: The seventh price increase was implemented, and the eighth one was blocked. Supply decreased due to production restrictions, demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and do long on iron ore and short on coke [52][53][54] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the market was affected by various news. In the long - term, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long at a low level when the price stabilizes in the range of 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton [55][56][57] - **Pig**: The spot price fluctuated, and the short - term supply contraction boosted the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm and be cautious in operation [58][59] - **Corn**: The spot price was stable in some areas and increased in ports. The inventory in Guangzhou Port showed different trends. The price rebounded and adjusted [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has accumulated significant gains and may enter a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next stage of direction decision. The bond market may strengthen, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate within a certain range. Precious metals have reached new highs, and investors need to be cautious when going long. The shipping index shows a downward trend, and investors can consider going long on the 12 - contract on dips. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Monday, the A - share market opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed higher. The TMT sector remained hot, while the large - finance sector corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis of the main contracts declined [2][3]. - News: China's economic prosperity continued to expand in August. South Korea's exports in August showed strong growth, especially in semiconductors and automobiles [3]. - Capital: On September 1st, the A - share trading volume remained high, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan by the central bank [4]. - Operation suggestion: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.29%, - 0.05%, - 1.34%, and - 1.61% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed a differentiated trend [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan. The liquidity at the beginning of the month was generally stable [4][5][6]. - Fundamental: The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight increase, with production and new orders rebounding, and external demand remaining resilient [6]. - Operation suggestion: The bond market may strengthen. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%, and it is recommended to operate within the range [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Overnight, gold and silver prices rose significantly due to the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical instability in Europe. Gold reached a new high of $3475.35 per ounce, and silver reached a new high since 2011 at $40.674 per ounce [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and institutional investors' demand for precious metals continues to increase. However, investors need to be cautious when going long unilaterally. For silver, although the industrial demand is relatively weak, the price may continue to rise [10]. - Capital: The positions of gold and silver ETFs increased significantly in August, and the speculative net long positions rebounded [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot price: As of September 2nd, the spot price quotes of major shipping companies showed a slow downward trend [11]. - Shipping index: As of September 1st, the SCFIS European route index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamental: As of September 2nd, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI and manufacturing PMI in August were above 50, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price continued to decline. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for the 12 - contract [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to oscillate. Investors can wait and see or go long on the 12 - contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the supply was tight. The spot trading became more active with the arrival of the traditional peak season [14]. - Macro: The Fed's attitude has become more dovish, and the market expects the probability of an interest - rate cut in September to increase [15]. - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate was at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased month - on - month, and the production in September is expected to continue to decline [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased. The domestic demand was still resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [16]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory decreased, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [16]. - Logic: The Fed's dovish attitude boosts copper prices, but the upside space is limited. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". Copper prices may at least oscillate [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 1st, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply was gradually becoming more relaxed [17]. - Supply: In July 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased [18]. - Logic: The futures price continued to decline. The market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The downside space is limited, and the upside needs new catalysts [19][20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19][20]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - Supply: In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased [20]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries increased [21]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [21]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the improvement of fundamentals supported the price, but the high price suppressed downstream procurement. It is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan, and pay attention to the pressure at 21,000 yuan [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 1st, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was affected by the off - season, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [23]. - Demand: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated downward with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost was supported. The demand is expected to improve in September. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan [24][25]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan. If the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, investors can consider the arbitrage of going long on AD and short on AL [25]. Zinc - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the spot trading improved [25]. - Supply: The TC of zinc concentrate remained high. The zinc ore supply was loose, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [26]. - Demand: The operating rates of the primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, but the decline space was limited. The downstream procurement increased after the price decline [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, and the price may oscillate. The upward breakthrough needs better demand and interest - rate cut expectations, and the downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and continuous inventory accumulation [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 1st, the price of 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot trading was stagnant [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore import volume decreased in July, and the supply was still tight. The tin ingot import volume increased [29][30]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory decreased [30][31]. - Logic: The national policy boosts the demand expectation. The supply is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply [31]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate widely [31][32]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was average, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained at a high level, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [33]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated upward. The cost was supported, and the supply - demand fundamentals changed little. The price may oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34][36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was strong. The price of chrome ore was supported by cost [36][38]. - Supply: The domestic stainless - steel production in August is expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [37]. - Logic: The futures price was strong. The cost was supported, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 1st, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume decreased [39]. - Supply: The production in August increased, but the supply was expected to contract recently [40]. - Demand: The demand was stable and optimistic, and the demand in September is expected to increase [40]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly in all links last week [42]. - Logic: The futures price was weak, and the main - contract center moved down. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the price may oscillate widely between 72,000 - 78,000 yuan [43]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and widely [43][44]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The futures price decreased significantly, and the spot price followed the decline [44]. - Cost and profit: The cost support may weaken, and the steel profit decreased significantly in August [44]. - Supply: The iron - element production increased from January to August. The steel production reached a new high this year, and the production may decline seasonally after the military parade [44]. - Demand: The domestic demand may weaken seasonally, and the export remained at a high level. The demand is expected to improve in September and October [45]. - Inventory: The inventory increased significantly in August, and it is expected to increase more slowly in the future [45]. - View: The steel price may continue to decline. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to ore [46]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [47]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore decreased [47]. - Basis: The basis of different varieties was calculated [47]. - Demand: The steel - mill profit rate was at a high level, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment increased significantly, and the port arrival volume increased [48]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the port - clearance volume decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [49]. - View: The iron - ore price may not have a strong upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49]. Coking Coal - Spot: The spot price oscillated weakly, and the coal - mine inventory increased slightly [50]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the import - coal price decreased [51][53]. - Demand: The coking - plant and blast - furnace operating rates decreased due to production restrictions [51][52][53]. - Inventory: The coal - mine, port, and border - port inventories increased slightly, and the coking - plant and steel - mill inventories decreased slightly [52][53]. - View: The coking - coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [53]. Coke - Spot: The seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the eighth - round increase was blocked [54][56]. - Supply: The coking - plant operating rate decreased due to production restrictions [54][56]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased, and the demand may be affected by production - reduction policies [55][56]. - Inventory: The coking - plant, port, and steel - mill inventories all increased slightly [56]. - View: The coke price may decline in the future. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coke [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The domestic soybean - meal spot price increased on September 1st, and the trading volume decreased. The rapeseed - meal trading volume was 100 tons [57]. - Fundamental news: There were various news about soybean production and trade around the world, such as the expected increase in US soybean crushing in July and the decrease in EU soybean imports [57][58]. - Market outlook: The US soybean yield is expected to be high, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the market. The domestic meal price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the 3000 - 3050 range [59][60]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated upward on September 1st [61]. - Market data: The profit of live - pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [61][62]. - Market outlook: The short - term supply tightened, which boosted the price, but the duration may be limited. It is recommended to operate with caution [62].

Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued expansion in the economic climate [1] Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a seminar on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, emphasizing the need for high-quality planning and implementation of the capital market to consolidate the recovery trend and enhance market attractiveness and inclusiveness [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to strengthen, influenced by market concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a potential interest rate cut in September [2][18] - The U.S. inflation data showed a rebound, and geopolitical risks have eased, which may limit the upward movement of gold prices [18] Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the domestic market showed a significant increase in financing balance, indicating a potential for continued market recovery supported by loose liquidity and favorable policies [3][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [10] Commodity Insights - The double coke futures showed weak performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions and stable iron water production, indicating resilient demand despite seasonal pressures [4][25] - The iron ore market remains supported by strong demand, although global shipments have recently decreased, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance in the medium term [23] Fund Holdings - As of the end of June, the Central Huijin Investment Co. and its subsidiaries held a total of 1.28 trillion yuan in stock ETFs, marking an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of the previous year [7]