中国公布 10 月经济数据，规模以上工业增加值同比增 4.9% 、社会消费品零售同比增 2.9% 、 1-10 月固定资产投资同比降 1.7% 、房地产开发投资同比降 14.7% ；各线城市房价格环比同比下降，一线二手房价格环比降幅收窄至 0.9% ，同比跌幅 扩大。李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施。财政部：有力有效实施积极 的财政政策，坚持扩大内需，支持建设强大国内市场。吴清：抓紧研究谋划"十五五"时期资本市场战略任务和重大举措， 着力推动市场更具韧性、更加稳健，制度更加包容、更具吸引力。 首席点评： 坚持扩大内需，着力推动市场更具韧性 重点品种：股指、原油、蛋白粕 股指：美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指尾盘跳水，综合和房地产行业领涨，电子通信行业领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金方面， 11 月 13 日融资余额增加 40.69 亿元至 24881.55 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块 是长期方向。资金面来看，国内流动性环境有望延续宽松，居民有望加大权益类资产配置，同时，随着美联储降息、人民 币升值，外部资金也有望流入国内市场。临近年底， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The A-share market showed a general upward trend on Thursday, with cyclical sectors performing actively and some high-dividend sectors slightly correcting. The bond market was affected by the strong performance of the risk market, and the precious metal market experienced a decline after an initial rise. The shipping index fluctuated, and various commodity futures markets had different trends [2][5][7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For stock index futures, it is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach. For bond futures, it is advisable to wait for the release of economic data and consider going long on dips. For precious metals, it is recommended to buy on dips. For various commodity futures, different trading strategies are proposed according to their respective market conditions [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market rose across the board on Thursday, with major indices closing in the green. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest rate bonds mostly rose. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between multiple and short factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees and the fermentation of broad monetary policy expectations. It is recommended to go long on dips [5][6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US government ended its shutdown, and Fed officials were cautious about a December rate cut, causing precious metals to rise initially and then fall. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **EC**: The spot price is cold, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1650 - 1850 points. It is recommended to conduct band operations [11][12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The liquidity risk has eased, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's rate cut rhythm and Sino-US tariff situation [12][13][15]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction trend of high-cost enterprises [15][16][17]. - **Aluminum**: The market shows a strong macro-drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to short on rallies [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [21][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the improvement of demand and the change of inventory [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: The supply side remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [27][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The market is in a state of more short-term and long-term factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of weak macro-drive and strong fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro expectations and steel mill supply [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of strong supply and demand expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories and the marginal change of demand [37][40][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a state of high price and weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the establishment of platform companies and the change of demand [41][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is in a state of supply pressure and cost support, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][46]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The overall demand for five major steel products declined, and steel mills reduced production. The inventory continued to be destocked. It is recommended to short on rallies and hold the long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market fluctuated. The global shipment volume decreased, the port arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see on a single side and partially take profit on the long coking coal and short iron ore arbitrage [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market showed a low-level volatile trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is recommended to view it as a volatile market and conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [52][55]. - **Coke**: The coke market showed a low-level volatile trend. The fourth round of price increases was partially implemented, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to view it as a volatile market and conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [56][58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal spot market price was stable with an upward adjustment, and the rapeseed meal market price decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the repair of crushing margins and the adjustment of the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report [59].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of tariffs on global trade, highlighting that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 members is expected to quadruple from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in the history of WTO trade monitoring [1] Group 1: Trade Measures and Economic Impact - The G20 members are implementing trade facilitation measures in response to the tariff impacts, with the value of these measures doubling compared to the previous period [1] - The report from the WTO indicates that the trade volume affected by tariffs will reach unprecedented levels, emphasizing the urgency for countries to adapt their trade policies [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising nearly 2%, while other commodities like PTA and ethylene glycol saw increases over 1% [1] - The U.S. stock indices experienced a notable decline, with a market turnover of 2.07 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious investment environment as the year-end approaches [2][10] Group 3: Financial Statistics and Monetary Policy - China's social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.83 trillion yuan [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on balancing the pace and intensity of economic support [6][11] Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing a development plan for smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries, aiming to expand the application of power batteries [7] - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with Maersk reducing container rates significantly, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing power during the peak season [3][24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - A-shares showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend, with sector rotation continuing. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - The pressure on funds has marginally eased, and the bond futures market showed an oscillating trend. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - The deterioration of US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market [8][9]. - The container shipping index showed a downward trend in the futures market. The spot market is still cold, and the upward trend of the main contract is difficult to sustain. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [11][12]. - Various metals in the non-ferrous metal sector showed different trends. For example, copper prices rebounded due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the release of liquidity risks; aluminum prices will fluctuate between event-driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [12][21]. - In the black metal sector, the inventories of iron and carbon elements are differentiated. The long coal and short hot-rolled coil strategy can continue to be held. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke all showed a downward trend [46][54][57]. - In the agricultural product sector, the export of US soybeans is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the USDA report on Friday [61]. Summaries According to the Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A-shares opened higher in the morning and then oscillated weakly during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also declined. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to mainly observe. If there is a significant decline in a single day, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures contracts closed flat, and the yields of most major interest rate bonds in the inter-bank market declined. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 403.8 billion yuan, with a net investment of 286.3 billion yuan. The market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to go long on dips in a single - sided strategy. For the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US government's "re - opening" process is progressing steadily, and the recent US employment situation has continued to deteriorate, which has supported the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December. Precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. The international gold price closed at $4,125.67 per ounce, up 0.24%, and the international silver price closed at $51.187 per ounce, up 1.37% [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: The US economy and employment market are still affected by the government "shutdown" and trade frictions. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December is increasing. Precious metals are expected to enter a bull market in the medium and long term. It is recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports showed different ranges. As of November 10, the SCFIS European line index rose 24.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index rose 4.94% month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 10, the global container total capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate within the range of 1,750 - 1,950 points. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased compared with the previous working day, and the market procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Macro**: The expected end of the US government shutdown is expected to release liquidity, which is beneficial to copper prices [12]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM Chinese electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the maintenance of 8 smelters. It is expected that the output in November will decrease slightly [13][14]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of electrolytic copper rods and recycled copper rods increased. The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience, and there are still many purchase orders after the price decline [14]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM Shandong aluminum oxide increased, while the prices in other regions were flat. The short - term supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is loose [16]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the market shipment was active at high prices, but the actual transaction was less [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [19]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the short term [21]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream demand was weak, with only a small amount of rigid demand replenishment [24]. - **Supply**: The supply of the zinc industry chain is gradually loosening, and the TC has turned from rising to falling. It is expected that the supply pressure will be limited in the future [25]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three primary processing industries of zinc showed a weak trend, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations. The export window of refined zinc is open, which may boost domestic zinc prices [26]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was relatively cold [28]. - **Supply**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of smelters remains at a low level. It is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply this year is limited [31]. - **Demand**: The demand is still weak, and the order volume of the solder industry has decreased significantly. Although some tin consumption has been driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption [31]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold long positions and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly [31]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is still at a high level, but it is expected to decrease month - on - month [32]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel is general. The demand for ternary materials has improved in the short term, but there is new production capacity in the medium term [32]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 11, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled steel decreased, and the raw material cost support declined [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel production increased month - on - month. It is expected that the production will decrease in November. The production of the 300 - series still remains at a high level [36]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [37]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 11, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the spot trading was still light [38]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production last week increased slightly, mainly driven by lithium spodumene and mica [39]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the performance near the previous high pressure level. The short - term view is wide - range oscillating adjustment [41]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 12, the prices of polysilicon remained unchanged. The demand is expected to decline, and the silicon wafer price has decreased [42]. - **Supply**: In November, the production of polysilicon is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons [42]. - **Demand**: The demand at all levels is expected to decline, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 12, the prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [46]. - **Supply**: In October, the production of industrial silicon increased, and it is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons in November [46]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the decrease in polysilicon production [46]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of the November contract [47]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot prices of steel remained stable, and the basis weakened [47]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements has weak support, while the cost of carbon elements has support. The current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [48]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to September. Recently, the molten iron output has declined, and the production of five major steel products has also decreased [48]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The current apparent demand has declined [48]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold the long coal and short hot - rolled coil strategy. Observe unilaterally and pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil [50]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 11, the price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [51]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures prices declined, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [52]. - **Demand**: The daily molten iron output decreased, and the demand for iron ore decreased [53]. - **Supply**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week [53]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Observe unilaterally. Arrange the long coking coal and short iron ore strategy [54]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures prices declined, while the domestic coking coal spot market continued to be strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to decline [55]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production of raw coal and clean coal decreased [55][56]. - **Demand**: The iron water output declined significantly, and the coking plant's start - up decreased slightly. The steel mill's replenishment demand weakened [56]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the coking coal 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,170 - 1,290 yuan/ton [57]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures prices declined, and the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the fourth round of price increases, but it has not been implemented yet [58][60]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased, and the coking plant's start - up decreased [58]. - **Demand**: The iron water output declined significantly, and the steel mill's profit decreased, which suppressed the price increase of coke [59]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the coke 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,650 - 1,780 yuan/ton [60]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On November 11, the domestic soybean meal spot prices showed mixed trends, and the rapeseed meal prices decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton [61]. - **Fundamental News**: The US soybean export inspection volume last week was 1,088,577 tons, and the soybean harvest rate was 96% [61]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the USDA report on Friday as the US soybean export is still uncertain [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - asset is becoming more prominent, but it is adjusting after a rapid rise. Copper prices are likely to be supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages. The downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse. Market styles of stocks may become more balanced, and bonds are expected to maintain a good operation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Chief Comments - The European Central Bank keeps its three major interest rates unchanged. The US cancels a 10% so - called fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, and suspends a 24% tariff for another year, among other trade - related concessions. Most domestic futures closed down at night [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver rebounded last night after a continuous decline. Although the Fed cut interest rates and ended QT, the driving factors weakened, leading to an adjustment after a rapid rise. Long - term, gold's status as a safe - asset is strengthening [2]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. Supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may cause a supply - demand gap, supporting prices in the long - run [3]. - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.24% at night. OPEC's supply increased in September, and the downward trend remains [3]. c. Daily Main News - **International News**: The eurozone's Q3 GDP had better - than - expected growth, but member states' performance diverged [6]. - **Domestic News**: The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, covering issues such as trade, investment, and TikTok [7]. - **Industry News**: 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive over 7 trillion yuan in project investment [8]. d. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined. The US dollar index rose, ICE Brent crude oil fell slightly, and London gold and silver prices increased [10]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Although Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen economic cooperation, the stock index did not rise significantly. The market style may become more balanced [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's support for a loose monetary policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision affected the bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse as OPEC supply increased [14]. - **Methanol**: Market fluctuations intensified due to uncertainties, with inventory rising and potential large - scale imports [15]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, and demand support is limited. Weather may affect production, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: They followed the crude oil trend. Demand was stable, and the market is likely to start oscillating after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the analysis in the key varieties section, with a long - term upward trend and short - term adjustment [19]. - **Copper**: Similar to the key varieties section, with long - term price support [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply may increase, and the price may fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation, affected by steel demand and inventory [22]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well. The US soybean price is affected by trade negotiations, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [23]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production is expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure suppresses the short - term market [24]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [25]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to maintain a slightly strong oscillation, supported by the purchase price [26]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market sentiment is affected by Sino - US trade policies. The price may have a chance to rise during the peak season [27].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to focus on reform in areas such as building a modern industrial system, a unified national market, and improving social security. There may be further emphasis on green development, and attention is paid to whether a GDP growth target will be set [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter and become more balanced [2][10]. - Precious metals are strengthening due to factors like trade tensions, potential Fed policy changes, and deteriorating US fiscal conditions. However, there may be adjustments after rapid rises [3][19]. - For oils and fats, palm oil exports are growing, providing some price support, but the market may be pressured by macro - disturbances [3][28]. Section Summaries I. General Situation and Outlook - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be released around October 28. The macro - economy shows positive trends in exports, CPI, and PPI. There are weather and climate phenomena such as cold snaps and a possible La Nina event [1]. II. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: After a high - level shock in September, it's in a direction - selection phase. Domestic and external funds may flow in, and the market style may shift in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rising. Factors include trade tensions, Fed policy hints, and US government issues. There are risks of adjustments [3][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the market may be affected by macro - factors [3][28]. III. Daily News - **International News**: Trump is signaling trade relaxation, and the US may face a "tariff refund" situation if it loses a court case [5]. - **Domestic News**: The China Shipowners' Association has deepened cooperation with international shipping institutions [6]. - **Industry News**: India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October [7]. IV. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, ICE Brent crude, and the US dollar index rose, while the FTSE China A50 futures, London gold, and London silver declined [9]. V. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key variety analysis, it's in a direction - selection phase with potential fund inflows and a possible style shift [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price is supported by a loose monetary policy environment. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the domestic economy has positive and negative factors. The central bank may continue with a loose policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The price decline is due to geopolitical stability and reduced demand. OPEC's actions in November are crucial for the price trend [13]. - **Methanol**: The开工 rate of related devices is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, but weather and trade negotiations can affect the price [15]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by crude oil and market sentiment, with a possible slowdown in the decline [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The inventory of glass is increasing, and that of soda ash is slightly decreasing. The market is cautious, and consumption and policies are key factors [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The same as the key variety analysis, with growth and adjustment risks [3][19]. - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the demand varies by industry. The Indonesia mine accident may support the price [20]. - **Zinc**: The processing fee is rising, and the price may follow copper. The domestic price may be weaker than the international one [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, with limited fluctuations [22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is strong in the short - term but may face a high - level shock. The steel - making profit and production are key factors [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported by steel production, and the supply has decreased. The price is expected to be strong [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is mixed. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with a mid - term bullish view [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean crushing data is positive, but the domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the price [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key variety analysis, with palm oil exports supporting the price and macro - factors causing pressure [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [29]. - **Cotton**: The US market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic market has a production increase expectation and weak downstream demand [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game for the year - end peak season. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the far - month price is related to the Israel - Palestine negotiation [31].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Bullish" or "Bearish" view for various commodities, with "Bullish" for corn, cotton, apple, zinc, silver, gold, iron ore, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and "Bearish" for crude oil, treasury bonds (T), treasury bonds (TL), and stock index (IM) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade concerns have eased, with US stock futures opening higher, S&P 500 futures up 1.1%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.4%. Brent crude futures rose more than 1% at the start, and cryptocurrencies rebounded on Sunday, with Ethereum up more than 10% overnight. Copper in New York rose more than 2% at the start of Asian trading on Monday [1] - After a high-level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again and maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, affected by Sino - US trade, market volatility may increase. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storage asset is rising [3][22] - The resurgence of the Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward. However, there is still a possibility of trade friction mitigation, and low oil prices may cause OPEC to slow down production increases [4][5][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns 3.1.1 International News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 24 at 8:30 am Eastern Time (20:30 Beijing time) [7] 3.1.2 Domestic News - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export controls on relevant rare - earth items, which is a proper measure to improve the export control system [8] 3.1.3 Industry News - In September, China's Small and Medium - Sized Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) was 89.0, down 0.1 point from August but higher than the same period last year. Some sub - indexes showed a stable and positive development trend [9][10] 3.2 Outer - Market Daily Earnings - From October 9 to 10, major outer - market indexes such as the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures declined. The US dollar index also fell, while gold and silver prices rose. ICE Brent crude oil fell 4.81% [11] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, trade issues may increase market volatility. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [2][13] - **Treasury Bonds**: Affected by US trade remarks, treasury bond yields have declined, and treasury bond futures prices are expected to remain strong until the end of October. The central bank may implement more relaxed monetary policies in the fourth quarter [15] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Sino - US trade war has led to a decline in oil prices. Trade friction affects oil prices through supply - chain disruption and risk - asset selling. In the short term, oil prices tend to break downward [4][5][16] - **Methanol**: The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants has increased, and coastal methanol inventories are rising. Methanol is short - term bearish [17] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures rebounded slightly last week. Supply pressure may increase later, and the demand support is limited. The post - holiday trend of Shanghai rubber is expected to be oscillating and bullish [18] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Prices are affected by cost fluctuations and market sentiment is cautious [19][20] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continue to be weak, and soda ash futures closed down. The market is waiting for autumn consumption to digest inventory and for policy changes [21] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold may benefit from the resurgence of the trade war. Central banks' gold - buying and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven asset support its price [3][22] - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded in the morning. The supply of concentrates has been tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting the copper price in the long term [23] - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell due to the decline in the copper price. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign price [24] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has increased, demand is in the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. The lithium salt price is supported, and there is an expectation of project resumption [25][26] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures were weak on Friday night. The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. The short - term price may fluctuate sharply [27] - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, iron ore demand is supported, and global iron ore shipments have decreased. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be bullish in the medium term, with hot - rolled coil stronger than rebar [29] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly at night. The USDA report is expected to lower the US soybean yield, but the report is postponed. The domestic market is well - supplied, and the market is expected to oscillate [30] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, which may put short - term pressure on prices. In the long term, prices are expected to rise [31][32] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, and the domestic market is affected by new - season sugar production and import pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [33] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell. The domestic cotton market is affected by new - cotton supply and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish [34] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated downward. The off - season trading may have ended, and the near - term market will enter a game for the year - end peak season. The short - term peak - season expectation may weaken due to the trade war, and the far - term market is affected by the Red Sea resumption progress [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the easing of trade concerns, with positive movements in stock futures and commodities, while highlighting the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on various markets [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Indices - U.S. stock futures opened higher, with the S&P 500 futures up 1.1% and Nasdaq futures up 1.4% [1]. - The market experienced a significant pullback due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion yuan [2]. - The financing balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan to 2.429195 trillion yuan, indicating a potential shift towards a bullish trend despite short-term volatility [2][12]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $4,060 per ounce, driven by renewed trade tensions and a lack of pressure from traditional bearish factors [3][20]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions [3][20]. Group 3: Oil Market - Oil prices fell approximately 4% following the announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating the significant impact of trade tensions on global supply chains [4][14]. - The trade war is expected to disrupt supply chain efficiency, leading to reduced demand for oil and petrochemical products [4][15]. - Market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, resulting in a potential downward trend for oil prices [4][15]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earths, emphasizing the need for dialogue with the U.S. to resolve trade issues [1][8]. - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China showed a slight decline to 89.0 in September, indicating challenges amid a complex external environment [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].