Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [5] Core Views - Geopolitical and policy factors are influencing the oil price, which shows a strong upward trend. The negotiation between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue is in progress, and the Fed's interest - rate stance affects market expectations. The global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, and the domestic futures market has mixed performance [1]. - Precious metals are in a rebound phase. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. Silver's high volatility suggests investors to wait and see. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes in Kazakhstan. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to supply and demand factors [2][3]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival. The bond market is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and domestic economic data, and the bond price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply and demand of various products such as crude oil, methanol, and rubber are affected by different factors, and their prices show different trends. In the metal market, precious metals, copper, zinc, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and influencing factors. In the black market, the supply and demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal are affected by the approaching Spring Festival and other factors. In the agricultural product market, the prices of protein meal, oil, sugar, cotton, and pork are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. In the shipping market, the container shipping European line is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival and will face verification after the festival [13][19][25][28][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - Elon Musk said that SpaceX has shifted its focus to building a "self - developing" city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved in less than 10 years. The plan to build a city on Mars will start in 5 - 7 years and is expected to take more than 20 years [6]. Domestic News - On the morning of February 9, President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance in building a modern socialist country [7]. Industry News - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form workers [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index fell. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, and LME nickel all rose, while LME zinc fell. CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn fell, while CBOT soybean oil rose [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, and the domestic stock index rebounded. In February, the market is expected to continue the upward trend, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations keep the money market loose. The Fed's policy and domestic economic data affect the bond market, and it is recommended to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session price rose. The negotiation between Iran and the US is in progress, and Kazakhstan's oil export may decline [13]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night - session price fell. The domestic coal - to - olefin device's operating rate increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased slightly [14]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price rebounded. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tires. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro - factors [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply and demand of glass and soda ash are gradually being repaired, and the market focuses on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [17]. Metal - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rebound. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose at night. The domestic aluminum price is high, but the downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. However, long - term factors support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24]. Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The demand for coking coal and coke is limited, but the downstream's pre - festival replenishment provides support [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply decreased slightly, and the demand weakened. The inventory increased, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipping and arrival increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's replenishment is coming to an end, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, which may put pressure on the price [28]. - **Oil**: The oil prices were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the inventory is expected to decline, but the crude oil price affects the palm oil price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price was slightly stronger at night. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated within a range. The textile factory's replenishment is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the direct subsidy policy [31]. - **Pork**: The pork price fell. The supply pressure increased, and the demand could not fully digest it. The pig price is expected to be weakly stable [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC price fell. The spot freight rate is relatively stable before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be volatile. After the Spring Festival, it will face the verification of the photovoltaic export rush and the implementation of the price increase letter [33][34].

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, announced that negotiations with the U.S. in Muscat focused on nuclear issues, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions, pending leadership decisions on the next meeting's timing and location [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman, Jefferson, stated that the current interest rate stance is "fully appropriate" for a stable economy, indicating no immediate urgency to resume interest rate cuts [1] - The FAO reported that global grain consumption is expected to increase by 61.8 million tons or 2.2% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 2.938 billion tons, primarily driven by a 3.0% rise in corn consumption [1] Group 2 - Precious metals continued to rebound, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which cooled rate cut expectations and led to a significant recovery in the dollar index [2][17] - The oil market saw a 1.97% increase in night trading, with ongoing indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Muscat, where both parties agreed to continue discussions without threats or pressure [3][12] - Copper prices rose by 0.6% in night trading, amid tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits, with short-term adjustments expected due to stable electricity investment and mixed performance in downstream demand [18] Group 3 - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with most major contracts declining, while caustic soda and synthetic rubber saw increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [1] - The market is currently cautious regarding various commodities, with a focus on potential adjustments in supply and demand dynamics, particularly in metals and energy sectors [5][10]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 7.419 million ounces (approximately 2307.57 tons) as of January 2026, up by 40,000 ounces (1.24 tons) from December 2025 [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding the forecast of 212,000, indicating increased economic slowdown risks which may reduce energy demand [1] - The ongoing negotiations between Iran and the U.S. regarding nuclear issues have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations of increased oil production from Venezuela [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have rebounded after significant volatility, primarily influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has cooled interest rate cut expectations and strengthened the dollar [2] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, with expectations that it will return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious regarding silver due to its higher volatility compared to gold, and the current gold-silver ratio being relatively low [2] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.83% amid indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S., with both parties agreeing to continue discussions [3] - Kazakhstan's oil exports are expected to decline by up to 35% in February due to slow recovery from a fire at the Tengiz oil field [3] - Copper prices rose by 1.39%, with tight supply conditions continuing, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [3] Group 4 - The A-share ETF market is experiencing a dichotomy, with mainstream broad-based ETFs facing significant redemptions while thematic ETFs in sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals are gaining investor interest [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the investment rating possibilities for various varieties, including "cautiously bearish" and "cautiously bullish" assessments [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple key financial and commodity markets, including precious metals, crude oil, and stock indices. It suggests that the long - term upward trend of gold remains intact despite recent volatility. The stock market is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need to be watched. For other markets, it provides detailed analyses of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors [2][4][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Focus - **International News**: The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, pausing rate cuts for the fifth consecutive time since June last year. It did not signal the next policy direction, strengthening the market's expectation of a stable monetary policy. Officials are monitoring the impact of the euro's appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [7]. - **Domestic News**: Eight departments jointly issued an implementation plan for the high - quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to achieve certain goals by 2030, such as cultivating high - standard raw material bases and new large - scale Chinese patent medicines [8]. - **Industry News**: In January, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, indicating an expansion of logistics business, with key sub - indices in the expansion range [9]. 3.2 Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report presents the daily earnings of various overseas market indices and commodities on February 4th and 5th, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and others. Most showed declines, except for the US dollar index and some commodities like CBOT soybeans [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices declined. The A - share market also fell, with the beauty and care sector leading the gain and the non - ferrous metal sector leading the loss. The stock market's positive trend since 2026 is due to multiple factors. It is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need attention [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling. The central bank's open - market operations and the expected "rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction" policy in the US, along with domestic economic data, have influenced the Treasury bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.73% at night. The US and Iran plan to hold nuclear - issue talks, but reaching an agreement is considered difficult. The strengthening US dollar and volatile precious metal prices have negatively affected the commodity market [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.46%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, as did the overall methanol plant operating rate. Coastal methanol inventories decreased slightly but were still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber futures declined. With domestic and some overseas production areas in different production states, and the inventory in Qingdao increasing, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined, with the market focusing on supply improvement expectations and macro - factors. The falling oil price also contributed to the cooling of the polyolefin market [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Glass production enterprise inventories increased slightly, and soda ash inventories also rose. The supply - demand situation is gradually adjusting, and the future market depends on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated at night. Recent volatility was mainly due to the nomination of the Fed chair and capital stampede. In the long run, gold is expected to resume its upward trend, while investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.15% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.84% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and downstream demand is also mixed. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell 0.23% at night. Short - term spot - level upward drivers are limited, but long - term factors such as low inventory and stable demand provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate main contract touched the daily limit down and then slightly recovered. The market has high attention, and downstream buyers are cautious. Supply and demand factors are complex, and a cautious short - selling view is maintained [24][25]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke main contracts fluctuated at night. Steel production and demand are in a seasonal off - peak, but import disruptions and pre - holiday restocking provide support [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The macro - environment is improving, and raw - material costs provide support. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Shipping volumes and port inventories have changed, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [28]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meals**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and rose at night. Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US - China soybean purchase plan affects the market. Domestic high inventories and sufficient supply expectations pressure prices [29]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weak, while rapeseed oil rose slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong and production is falling, but market supply expectations affect prices [30][31]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated and were slightly stronger. With a seasonal supply increase and import pressure, prices are expected to remain low in the short term [32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures maintained a volatile trend. With approaching Spring Festival, the market has a certain demand support, but import factors may limit price increases [33]. - **Hogs**: The hog market continued to be weak and volatile, with regional differences. The market is in a "price - decline and reluctance - to - sell" game, and pre - holiday prices are expected to adjust [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose 3.86%. Pre - holiday spot freight rates are expected to decline. The market has a large discount, and future price trends depend on factors such as the pre - April 1st export rush and shipping company price increases [35].

Group 1 - The article highlights the announcement of 2026 as the "China-Laos Friendship Year," emphasizing the strengthening of bilateral relations and cooperation between China and Laos [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year, which reinforces market expectations for stable monetary policy [7] - The domestic commodity futures market shows a decline in crude oil and precious metals, with crude oil futures dropping by 0.73% to 460.3 yuan per barrel, and gold futures down by 1.48% to 1096.14 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have experienced significant volatility due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has cooled interest rate cut expectations and led to a rebound in the US dollar index [2][19] - The crude oil market is affected by ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, with expectations of limited progress due to fundamental disagreements [3][14] - The US stock market has seen a decline, with the three major indices retreating, while the overall market outlook for February remains positive due to various supportive factors [4][12] Group 3 - The logistics industry in China shows expansion, with the logistics business activity index for January reported at 51.2%, indicating continued growth [9] - The government has issued a plan for the high-quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to establish 60 high-standard production bases by 2030 [8]

Group 1 - The central government's new policy document aims to anchor agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization, focusing on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing targeted assistance, and ensuring stable income growth for farmers [1] - The document outlines six key areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing regular precise assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, advancing rural construction tailored to local conditions, strengthening institutional innovation, and enhancing the Party's leadership over agricultural work [1] Group 2 - Precious metals experienced a rebound influenced by two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which boosted the dollar index, and a significant short-term increase in precious metals prices, particularly silver, leading to profit-taking and increased market volatility [2][20] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, and it is expected to return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments, while silver prices are anticipated to remain under pressure in the short term [21] Group 3 - The crude oil market saw a 1.78% increase, influenced by geopolitical tensions involving U.S. military actions against Iranian drones and concerns over increased Venezuelan oil exports exacerbating supply surplus fears [3][15] - The domestic retail prices for refined oil have increased, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [10] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with significant fluctuations in the military and banking sectors, while the overall market outlook for February remains positive due to seasonal trends and policy support [4][12] - The financing balance decreased by 6.009 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [12] Group 5 - The international shipping index for European routes increased by 5.22%, with expectations of continued downward pressure on spot freight rates leading up to the holiday season [34]

首席点评：贵金属巨震 当地时间 1 月 29 日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。特 朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔 " 再次拒绝降息 " ，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于 最低水平。特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将 " 干得不错 " ，美联储目前利率 " 高得不可接受 " 。 1 月 29 日，国务院办公厅发布《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，提出聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服 务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费 6 个重点领域，以及演出服务，体育赛事服务，情绪式、体验式服 务 3 个潜力领域，加快培育服务消费新增长点，促进服务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。国 际贵金属期货普遍收涨， COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32% 报 5410.80 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98% 报 115.78 美元 / 盎司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铝 贵金属： 贵金属一度大幅下挫，随后震荡回升。近期国际金价持续飙升并迭创历史新高，这是地缘政治格局剧 烈动荡、全球政治经济秩序动摇与流动性环境持续宽松共同作用的必然结果。今年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Cautiously Bearish (Possibility) | Cautiously Bullish (Possibility) | | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | | √ | | Stock Index (IF) | | √ | | Stock Index (IC) | | √ | | Stock Index (IN) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Rebar | √ | | | Hot Rolled Coil | -1 | | | Iron Ore | √ | | | Gold | | √ | | Silver | | √ | | Aluminum | | √ | | Lithium Carbonate | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | | Container Shipping to Europe | -1 | | [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [11]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors are advised to buy on dips during short - term adjustments [3][20]. - Short - term rubber prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - The crude oil market is under pressure due to factors such as the possible resumption of diplomatic communication between the US and Iran and the improvement of the situation in Venezuela [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News Concerns on the Day International News - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate of the US in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [6]. Domestic News - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23. After deducting the 200 billion yuan of matured MLF in January, the net injection through MLF operations is 700 billion yuan [7]. Industry News - The sales revenue of China's intelligent equipment manufacturing industry in 2025 increased by 28.1% year - on - year, with industrial robots and special operation robots manufacturing growing by 17.4% and 42.1% respectively [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 index rose 0.55%, the European STOXX 50 index rose 0.87%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.35%, the US dollar index fell 0.50%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.41%, London gold rose 2.18%, London silver rose 3.33%, LME aluminum rose 0.72%, LME copper rose 0.23%, LME zinc rose 1.83%, LME nickel rose 0.58%, ICE No. 11 sugar rose 1.29%, ICE No. 2 cotton fell 0.61%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.09%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.61%, CBOT lean hogs fell 0.57%, CBOT wheat rose 1.48%, and CBOT corn rose 0.53% [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by multiple factors. The market is shifting from valuation expansion to profit - driven [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized. The central bank's monetary policy and fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to be moderately loose, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 2.17% at night. Diplomatic communication may resume between the US and Iran, and the situation in Venezuela has improved [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.46% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, and coastal methanol inventories increased slightly [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber continued to rebound on Thursday, driven by the strong performance of synthetic rubber. Short - term prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Glass supply and demand are gradually improving, while soda ash still faces inventory digestion pressure [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals rebounded, with international gold and silver hitting new highs. The long - term upward trend is expected to continue, and short - term dips are buying opportunities [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.43% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and copper prices may experience a phased correction [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.53% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and zinc prices may correct after the release of the optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous market [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose 0.21% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply restrictions provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. The price is likely to rise rather than fall under the current demand logic [24][25]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The short - term decline of the futures price is limited, and attention should be paid to supply, iron production, and restocking [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with weak supply and demand and narrowing inventory decline [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [28]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal oscillated strongly at night. The harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans is accelerating, and domestic prices are under pressure from high inventory and expected high yield in South America [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oils oscillated and adjusted at night. The prices of palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong in the short term [30]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar's main contract remained at a low level. The short - term price is expected to remain low due to seasonal supply pressure [31][32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract oscillated strongly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [33]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: EC rose 0.58%. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival, but the market is not very pessimistic about the April freight rate [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding investment strategies and advice [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices have reached a record high. Supply may increase as Myanmar's tin mine复产 progresses, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and options are recommended for trading [2][31][35]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal trading in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [3][59]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [4][74]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: A - shares were volatile at a high level. The TMT sector was hot, while the large - finance sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis of some contracts changed [5][6]. - **News**: The margin ratio for margin trading has been adjusted, and overseas, the US is considering responses to the Iranian situation. A - share trading volume continued to increase, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A - shares may have limited downward space after a pull - back. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH appropriately. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yield of some bonds decreased [8]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 2122 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, but the central bank's long - term investment may stabilize short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a short - term oscillating situation. It is recommended to continue to wait and see on a single - side strategy and tend to steepen the curve on a curve strategy [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed consumption and inflation resilience. The Fed's Beige Book indicated economic improvement, and the dollar index was stable. Precious metals generally rose, with gold and silver reaching new highs [11][13]. - **Outlook**: The US economy and employment are weak. Geopolitical risks drive capital to allocate precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to have a higher price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [13][14]. Shipping (Container Shipping Index - European Line) - **Index Performance**: The SCFIS European line index and some shipping rates increased, while the SCFI composite index decreased slightly [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container capacity increased, and demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated upwards, but the spot price is in a downward cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are accumulating. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as US inflation data and the situation in Venezuela. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [16][19]. - **Alumina**: The spot price is loose, and the futures price oscillates widely. The core contradiction is between policy expectations and a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is strong, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamental situation is under pressure, with increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended not to chase the price and consider long positions after a pull - back [23][25]. - **Zinc**: The price center has shifted upwards, and the spot premium has decreased. Supply is affected by mine shortages and smelter production cuts, and demand is suppressed by high prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long term and hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [28][31]. - **Tin**: The price has reached a record high. Supply may increase, and demand shows regional differences. It is recommended to wait and see [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand varies in different sectors. The market is affected by Indonesian policies and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to have a bullish view [35][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates strongly, driven by raw material costs. Supply pressure eases slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to expect a strong - oscillating trend [39][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price oscillates widely. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand has some resilience. Social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [43][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price oscillates, with support at 48,000 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price oscillates strongly. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to production cut implementation [48][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation phase, and steel prices oscillate. Spot prices are stable to weak, costs are rising, and production is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in January [50][52]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are accumulating. The futures price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand has some support. It is recommended to trade within a range [53][54]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [55][59]. - **Coke**: The price oscillates. After the fourth price cut, the market is stable. Supply and demand are improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [60][64]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a low level, and demand has some support from steelmaking and non - steel sectors. It is recommended to go long on dips [65][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a neutral - to - low level, and demand has support from steelmaking. Manganese ore prices are strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [67][70]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The auction premium is limited, and soybean meal oscillates. The US soybean supply and demand situation affects the market, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [71][73]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [74][75]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. Northeast China has a strong reluctance to sell, and downstream demand for restocking exists. Policy auctions are ongoing. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy implementation [76][78]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Brazilian and Indian production situations affect the market, and domestic sales are affected by the Spring Festival [79][80]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillates at a low level, and the domestic cotton price stops falling and stabilizes. The US cotton supply and demand situation and domestic inventory and sales affect the market [81][83]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable to rising, and the market digestion speed is acceptable. Supply is in an oversupply situation, and demand is supported by the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of various oils and fats oscillate. Palm oil is affected by inventory pressure, soybean oil is affected by the US - Iran relationship and supply, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to price trends [86][88]. - **Jujubes**: The futures price rebounds, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied. It is recommended to short on rallies and test the support at 9000 yuan/ton [89][90]. - **Apples**: The futures price is strong, driven by market sentiment. Short - term factors support the price, but long - term consumption may be affected. It is recommended to use long positions with put - option protection [91]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and have limited downward space in the medium term [92][93]. - **PTA**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and have a low - long strategy in the medium term [94]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to follow raw materials and oscillate. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and shrink the processing fee on a high level [95]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply and demand are both decreasing in January. It is expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and expect the processing fee to oscillate within a certain range [96][97]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 yuan for EG2605, do reverse arbitrage for EG5 - 9, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory. Demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread [99]. - **Styrene**: The price is short - term strong but has limited upward space. Supply is tight in the short term, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for EB03 and shrink the processing fee [100][101]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3][102][103]. - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory pressure has eased. It is recommended to hold PDH profit - expanding positions [103][105]. - **Methanol**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [106][107]. - **PVC**: The price is affected by export policies. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling positions [108][109]. - **Urea**: The price center has shifted upwards. Supply is high, but agricultural demand in the Su - Wan region has increased. It is expected to be strong in the short term [110][111]. - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: The price is strong. Supply is decreasing, and demand has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [114][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price oscillates within a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [116][118]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Cost is rising, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and do arbitrage between BR2603 and NR2603 [119][120][121].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [3][11] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with the price centers of silver and platinum likely to rise steadily [2][19] - The price of copper is affected by market sentiment in the short term, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [3][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chief Comment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will improve the long - term capital investment system, enhance service for science and technology innovation enterprises, and strengthen regulatory law enforcement [1] - The US may lift additional sanctions on Venezuela to promote oil exports [1] Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend is expected to continue. Gold is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. Silver and platinum are also driven by supply - demand gaps in addition to macro factors [2] - **Stock Index**: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Supply - side reform will push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks. Overseas funds are expected to flow back [3] - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment [3] Variety Views | Variety | Bias | | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IF) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IC) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IM) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TF) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TS) | Bullish | | Crude Oil | Bearish | | Methanol | Bearish | | Rubber | Bullish | | Rebar | Bullish | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Bullish | | Iron Ore | Bullish | | Coking Coal | Bullish | | Coke | Bullish | | Silicomanganese | Bullish | | Ferrosilicon | Bullish | | Gold | Bullish | | Silver | Bullish | | Copper | Bullish | | Aluminum | Bullish | | Lithium Carbonate | Bullish | | Cotton | Bullish | | Sugar | Bullish | | Apple | Bearish | | Corn | Bullish | | Container Shipping to Europe | Bearish | [5] Main News Concerns on the Day - **International News**: The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has completely disappeared. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected [6] - **Domestic News**: The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination [7] - **Industry News**: Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled, and the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be adjusted [8] Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the European STOXX 50 rose 1.39%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.24% from January 8th to January 9th [10] Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Treasury bond futures are generally weak due to the strong market risk appetite [11][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. Methanol is mainly affected by Iranian supply. The upward momentum of polyolefins may slow down after continuous rebounds [14][15][17] - **Metals**: Precious metals are expected to rise in the long term. Copper prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term. Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors and downstream demand [19][20][22] - **Black Metals**: The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be strong. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward [25][26] - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal prices are under pressure. Palm oil prices are affected by production concerns. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29][30] - **Shipping Index**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe may enter a downward channel in mid - January [32]