| 《》 国语期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月15日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周全球原油岸罐库存下降,但在途与浮仓库存增加的背景下总体原油库存进一步增加,年初以来的累计增 幅已达8.1%。上周我们谈到本轮油价下跌重点关注WT155-60美元/桶（对应布伦特60-65美元/桶、S0430-470 元/楠)的页岩油成本支撑,下行目标位已基本得到兑现。周内行情以暴跌后的震荡修复为主,后市贸易战 对需求的边际负面影响依然存在,OPEC+加速增产路径亦无调整,黑库压力下原油中期下行风 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The copper market is in a rebound phase, but is subject to significant systemic event shocks. Aluminum shows relatively optimistic fundamentals but faces uncertainty due to trade wars. Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - term. Lead prices are volatile due to tariff policies. Nickel is at the end of a rebound. Tin is in a rebound with supply - side resistance. Lithium carbonate is in a downward channel. Industrial silicon has a downward price trend. Polysilicon prices are under pressure with demand changes and cost shifts. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Sentiment**: Last week, tariff games pushed LME copper down to $8,105, causing long - position exits. US inflation indicators eased, but inflation expectations remained high, and consumer confidence was weak [2]. - **Domestic Situation**: The import TC of upstream concentrates dropped to - $30/tonne dry. Domestic copper smelter production is stable, and consumption has short - term buying interest but long - term uncertainty. SMM social inventory decreased to 250,500 tons, 148,500 tons lower than last year [2]. - **Overseas Situation**: Major investment banks lowered their copper price forecasts to $8,000 - $8,300, and the balance sheet turned to surplus. Peru, Chile, and Zambia are expected to increase copper output this year [2]. - **Price Trend**: The copper market has resistance support in supply - demand but is in a rebound. LME copper's technical resistance is expected at $9,300 - $9,500, and SHFE copper is around 76,500 - 77,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: Last week, the operating capacity decreased by 400,000 tons to 8.6 million tons. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,700 - 2,950 yuan this week, and futures can be short - sold on rebounds [2]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4.39 million tons. The output in Q1 was 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.6% [2]. - **Demand**: The domestic downstream processing industry's operating rate decreased to 62.2%. Aluminum cable demand is strong, but other sectors are weak [2]. - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased to 724,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory to 226,000 tons. Spot premiums decreased. SHFE aluminum is expected to oscillate between 19,000 - 20,000 yuan this week [2]. Zinc - **Market and Supply**: The import zinc concentrate price guidance for Q2 is $70 - 90/tonne dry. The inventory of imported zinc concentrates is at a high of 320,400 tons. The zinc ingot import window opened, and smelters' production enthusiasm is high. The short - term support is at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the medium - term price may decline [2]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: Due to tariff policies, demand weakened after the price rebound. The social inventory increased to 105,600 tons. Consumption is under pressure as the peak season nears the end. SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan in the short - term and be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - term [2]. Lead - **Market and Supply**: The lead price fluctuated due to tariff policies and a weak dollar, with the import window opening. LME lead inventory increased, and the cost side has strong support. The supply pressure is partially relieved by some smelter production cuts [2]. - **Consumption**: It is the battery consumption off - season, and the consumption side has weak support for high - price lead. SHFE lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,300 yuan [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market and Demand**: The nickel price declined last week, and stainless steel prices dropped 5.7%. The US tariff policy impacts demand, especially external demand [2]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Nickel inventory decreased, and stainless steel inventory increased. SHFE nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short - sellers should look for new entry opportunities [2]. Tin - **Market and Supply**: The tin price was affected by tariff policies and supply - side events. The supply is expected to be tight in Q2, but the pricing focus has shifted to demand [2]. - **Demand**: The US tariff policy on semiconductors increases demand uncertainty. The inventory is high. SHFE tin is in a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan, and short - selling is recommended [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market and Supply**: The futures price rebounded slightly after breaking through support. The supply is high, and downstream demand is limited. The market inventory increased to 131,000 tons. The price is in a downward channel [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Supply**: The price oscillated around 9,500 yuan/ton last week. The Xinjiang production cut was less than expected, and the downstream demand for polysilicon is stable, while organic silicon demand is expected to shrink. The price has further downward space [2]. Polysilicon - **Price and Supply**: The futures price dropped 4.16% last week. The production in April is about 96,000 - 105,000 tons, and the inventory is relatively high. The cost center may shift downwards [2]. - **Demand**: The photovoltaic demand is expected to decline in the second half of the year. The demand in April slightly exceeds production, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly. Attention should be paid to the support at 41,500 yuan/ton [2]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Short sell ZN2506. With the implementation of tariffs, the end of "rush - to - export" orders, and the over - consumption in Q1, the demand is expected to be weak. The supply increase in Q2 will lead to a downward pressure on zinc prices, and zinc is the main short - selling target [2].

安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|化工调研】安徽市场调研:从新能源视角看纯碱 化工调研 近期关税政策成为市场关注的焦点，而纯碱作为一个自给自足为主的品种，受到的直接影响较小，下游产 品光伏玻璃受到影响更多。另外我们看到一季度光伏玻璃基本面好转，新产线点火和堵密恢复，也是纯碱需求 端的一个关注焦点。基于纯碱的这些市场热点，我们跟随郑商所进入安徽地区，了解当下光伏玻璃及纯碱的市 场情况，以及在目前关税宏观扰动下，企业如何更好的利用衍生品工具做好风险管理，提升运营效率。 一、安徽光伏玻璃市场情况 1.安徽光伏玻璃产能情况 安徽光伏玻璃产能达到46950吨/日，占全国总产能37.9%,远超排名第二的江苏省。而安徽的光伏玻璃产能 集中度高，主要分布在芜湖和滁州，两者产能占比分别为41%、37%，其他分布在合肥、蚌埠、安庆及阜阳。 光伏玻璃呈现双嘉头格局,行业内的主要企业有信义光能、福菜特集团、中建材集团、南玻集团、旗滨集团 等,其中信义光能和福莱特集团占据市场份额分别为23%、18%。而信义和福莱特生产基地主要集中在芜湖, 滁州。安徽已成为全球光伏产业不可替代的战略枢纽，其发展不仅重塑了中国光伏产业版图，更为全球能源转 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability and a recommendation to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a strong and volatile trend. Last week's lower - than - expected US inflation led traders to bet on a Fed rate cut in June. A Fed governor stated different rate - cut scenarios based on tariff levels, and Trump's erratic tariff policies highlighted the value of gold under a credit crisis [1] - Attention should be paid to the battle of the US dollar at the key level of 100 after hitting a three - year low, and caution should be exercised after the rapid rise of gold prices [1] Other Key Points - Trump is considering measures to help automakers adjust their supply chains from Mexico and recently assisted Apple CEO Cook. The US Department of Commerce launched a 232 investigation on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and will exit the tomato tariff suspension agreement with Mexico reached in 2019 [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said there is no evidence that sovereign investors are selling US assets, has tools to deal with bond - market fluctuations but is far from using them, and will interview candidates for the Fed chair's successor in the fall [2] - Israeli officials said there are still differences among parties on reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement [2]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年04月15日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价维持震荡,布伦特06合约小幅收涨0.36%。美国宣布对部分电子产品进行对等关税豁 免后,市场对贸易战引发的经济衰退及油品需求冲击担忧进一步缓解,市场定价的年内美联储降息 次数快速收窄。昨日OPEC4月报分别将今明两年全球石油需求增速下调15万桶/天。本周市场仍以暴 跌后的震荡修复行情为主,关注周六美国与伊朗第二轮核谈进展。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡,金价小幅回落。上周美国通胀超预期走低令交易员押注美联储六月开启降息,昨 日美联储理事称在大规模关税情景下,若出现显著的经济放缓,倾向于更早和更大幅度地降息,在 较小关税的情景下，降息可能会在下半年进行。特朗普关税政策的反复无常使得信用危机下黄金价 值凸显。关注美元在创造三年新低后在100关键位置的争夺，金价快速上涨后暂时保持漠懊。今日关 注美联储多位官员讲话。 【铜】 隔夜美盘铜价走高,美伦价差扩至1000美元,沪伦铜价相应震荡。市场仍高度关注关税博弈,芯片 半导体及消费电子类启动美国商务部调查,后续可能纳入行业关税。周内市场关注联储官员讲话。 短期 ...

| | | | Miller | ■仅知见 SDIC FUTURE | WE C. 28 NA H JM | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年04月14日 | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。螺纹供需继续小幅上升，库存延续缓慢去化态势，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热卷供需均有明显回落，库存 去化态势放缓。高炉整体延续复产态势，铁水产量继续上升。从下游行业看，内需整体依然度弱，3月钢材出口维持高位 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not specified [1] - Plastic: Not specified [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: Not specified [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: Not specified [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: Not specified [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as device maintenance, seasonal demand, trade policies, and cost changes, and their prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to macro - level impacts, trade market changes, and oil price performance [2][3][6] Summary by Category Methanol - After the inspection, domestic device operating rates increased significantly, and Iranian shipments recovered rapidly. Coastal imports are expected to return by the end of the month. With low inventories and pre - May Day downstream stocking demand, the inland market is likely to be strong. Although supply is expected to recover and there may be short - term shutdowns of olefin plants, low inventories provide support, and macro - level impacts should be focused on [2] Urea - Weekly production increased, and enterprise inventories rose. Agricultural demand decreased due to seasonal factors, and finished product sales slowed down, leading to some reduction in operating loads. Southern rice fertilization demand is expected to peak in late April but is currently affected by drought. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Polyolefins - Futures contracts of plastics and polypropylene fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply is sufficient with limited maintenance, and demand from the film and wrapping film sectors is weak. Polypropylene has many planned maintenance devices, but downstream orders are insufficient, especially overseas orders [4] Styrene - The futures contract opened slightly lower and closed higher, and spot prices rose steadily. Maintenance devices increased, and port inventories decreased. The cost of crude oil and pure benzene stabilized in the short term but is expected to be weak overall [5] Polyester - PTA has low processing margins, and its driving force lies in cost. Attention should be paid to trade market changes and oil price performance. Ethylene glycol supply is expected to shrink while demand may decline, and prices will oscillate. Short - fiber exports may increase, but terminal exports are expected to decline, and processing margins have weakened. Bottle - chip supply and demand remain weak, and prices follow raw materials [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated strongly. Maintenance devices increased, supply decreased, exports were good, and inventory was high. The narrowing profit of chlor - alkali integration provides some support, but the driving force is weak. Caustic soda showed strength. Industry profits are compressed, and enterprises are more inclined to maintain prices. Although operating rates are high, downstream and traders are not active in purchasing, and inventory is high [6] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices declined due to high positions and expanded delivery capacity. Inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Cost support limits the downside space, and attention should be paid to the 1100 - yuan support level and potential macro - stimulus policies. Soda ash oscillated strongly. Production remained high, and photovoltaic glass demand cooled. The impact of tariffs is limited, and supply pressure is high [7]

大宗商品周度报告 2025年4月14日 流动性和需求均承压 商品短期或震荡偏弱运行 大宗商品周报 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收跌5.10%，其中能化、有色金属和黑色跌幅 较大，分别下跌6.97%、4.60%和4.21%，农产品和贵金属微跌0.54%和 0.01%。 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为鸡蛋、豆一和生猪，涨幅分别为 6.66%、5.20%和3.50%；跌幅较大的品种为原油、焦煤和锡，跌幅分别为 12.77%、10.84%和10.54%。 资金方面，上周全市场规模下降，除贵金属外，各个板块都有小幅资金流出。 ●展望：特朗普对等关税带来的对于美国金融市场的冲击引发了股债市场的风 险传染后，使得其不得不推出对等关税的豁免90天政策。同时在周末又推出了 把智能手机、电脑和其他电子产品排除在对等关税之外的政策，并展开国家安全 贸易调查，但整体来看这些产品短期免受4月2号确定的超高对等关税的冲击。 美元的持续走弱在短期使得汇率稳定，而特朗普短期关税问题的弱化和对于国内 经济政策的预期，支撑恐慌交易缓解后短期市场修复性行情的延续。 贵金属方面，本周延续强势，黄金再创历史新高，政策层面成为主导因素： 美联储释 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 4 月 14 日 大类资产运行周报（20250407-20250411） 关税政策短期趋向缓和 美股大幅反弹 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -3.90% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 4.36% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.44% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.19% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.73% | | | 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -3.06% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 0.68% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 0.59% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合履报 2025年04月14日 【原油】 上周国际油价伴随着全球贸易战的极限博弈和阶段性缓和剧烈波动,布伦特06合约周废下跌2.2%, SC05含约节后补跌12.8%。EIA在4月《短期能源展望》中将今明两年的石油需求增速分别下调37万 桶/天、13万桶/天。我们此前持续提示的WT155-60美元/桶（对应布伦特60-65美元/橘、S0430- 470元/桶）成本支撑作用依然有效,但考虑到贸易战风险犹存、OPEC+增产速度加快后后续累降压 力仍在，油价超跌反弹空间暂不过分期待,短期或转为区间震荡行情。 【贵金属】 周五贵金属延续强势。上周美国CPI超预期走低令交易员加大对美联储降息押注,几乎完全定价6月 降息。特朗普关税政策的反复无常使得美元资产遭到地售,信用危机下黄金价值凸显。金价连续三 日大涨后保持遵慎,关注美元在创造三年新低后在100关键位置的争夺。 【铜】 上周五铜价延续反弹,市场继续观察美国对等关税博弈的缓和远象。近期美盘铜库存再次走高,显 示物流正条中到美国,LME0-3月现货升水扩至30美元。短线外盘风险缓和,但实际系统性冲击未结 束。 ...