Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, trade relations, and supply - demand dynamics. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has brought positive signals to the market, but various commodities still face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][21][37]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities show diverse price trends. Some are under pressure due to supply surpluses, while others are supported by factors such as demand recovery or supply shortages. The report provides specific analysis and trading suggestions for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. Brent 12 - contract fell 0.28%. The mid - term supply - demand pressure on crude oil remains due to OPEC +'s continuous production increase, but the easing of the Sino - US trade war provides short - term support. There is still a downside risk [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil followed the crude oil's oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil's support may be limited in the long - term, and the mid - term supply pattern is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is generally weak, but supply may contract due to refinery incidents. There are opportunities to go long on the high - low sulfur spread [22]. - **LPG**: The near - month LPG contract continued to be strong. The decrease in supply and increase in demand due to improved chemical profits and cold weather support the price [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The Fed's rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, along with the Sino - US tariff reduction, led to volatile market sentiment. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: After reaching a record high, copper prices pulled back. The long - position can be held above 86,500 [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The short - term trend is slightly strong, but the upside space is limited [5]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, supporting the high - level operation of LME zinc. There is a short - term callback pressure on the external market. Zinc ingot exports are expected to increase, and it is not recommended to short - sell Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Lead**: High lead prices suppress downstream demand. However, LME lead is in the process of destocking, and there may be opportunities for cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are weak, with the center of gravity tending to move down due to over - supply in the industry [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to be short - sold, and the short - position can be held below 285,000 [11]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the price of aluminum and is difficult to have an independent market due to high inventory levels [6]. Chemicals - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has recovered from a low level, but the fundamental situation is still weak. Caustic soda continues to accumulate inventory, and the price is expected to be low [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Supply is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [31]. - **Methanol**: The near - term port inventory pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly but may gradually stop falling [26]. - **Urea**: The supply exceeds demand, but demand and cost support the price. The short - term market is expected to operate at a low level [25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the trade situation has improved. Domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and bean meal inventory has decreased slightly. Pay attention to policies on US soybean imports [37]. - **Corn**: The supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the import situation after the Sino - US trade improvement [41]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton also declined slightly. New cotton costs have increased, providing some support, but the market is still cautious due to weak demand [44]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output forecast. The output expectation in Guangxi is relatively good [45]. Others - **Shipping**: The current booking demand in November is weak, but the cargo volume is expected to recover in late November. Airlines may raise prices, and it is advisable to go long on the freight index of container shipping (European line) at low levels [21]. - **Equity Market**: A - shares fell with heavy volume, and futures indices also declined. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have positive effects on the medium - term market sentiment. Focus on the technology - growth sector [49]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury bond futures oscillated strongly. The bond market is entering a recovery phase, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50].

安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|化工视点】你问我答:玻璃底部是否已现? 点有成金 答：目前供给端存在较大不确定性。首先，反内卷对玻璃供给的影响仍停留在预期层面，尚无实质 性举措，后续是否会出台相应细则仍需持续关注；其次， 10月份以来玻璃现货降价、成本抬升， 行业利润收缩后，是否会加速沙河玻璃企业燃煤产线向清洁煤制气切换，还需持续跟踪。目前玻璃 底部已基本确认，策略层面可以关注：低位多玻璃的机会，但上方空间还需供给端收缩或者需求端 发力配合；另外可以继续关注多玻璃空纯碱套利策略；此前推荐的卖玻璃浅虚值看跌期权仍可继续 持有。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 答：国庆前供给端消息发酵，刺激中下游囤货；国庆后预期未兑现，中游出货，挤压玻璃厂销 售，现货呈现累库阴跌态势，期货价格下挫。随着玻璃跌至1100元以下，估值重新来到低位, 加之成本端煤炭价格上涨带来成本支撑，目供给端仍有扰动的可能，期价再度回升。 2.如何看待当前玻璃市场的主导因素？其交易逻辑是否发生变化? 答：玻璃目前仍处在弱现实和强预期的博弈中。随着估值重新来到低位，弱现实得到交易，市 场转而交易低估值下的强预期。 ...

Report Core View - Glass bottom was likely formed in June, and currently it's difficult for the market to break the previous low due to policy and cost changes [4] - The glass market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the market has shifted to trading strong expectation at low valuations [3] - There is significant uncertainty on the supply side, and the follow - up supply - side policies and production line switching need continuous attention [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Summary by Related Questions How to view the decline of glass futures after National Day and the subsequent rebound - Before National Day, supply - side news stimulated downstream stockpiling; after National Day, the expectation was not fulfilled, leading to a decline in futures prices. Then, due to low valuation, cost support, and possible supply - side disturbances, the futures price rebounded [2] How to view the current dominant factors and trading logic of the glass market - The glass market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectation. With the low valuation, the market trades the strong expectation. The cost has increased, and it's difficult for the price to break the previous low. The fuel switch in Shahe may be a market focus [3] Whether the bottom of the glass market has appeared and the firmness of the bottom - The bottom of glass was considered to have appeared in June. Currently, due to policy and cost changes, it's hard for the market to break the previous low [4] Uncertainties in the glass market, variables in the fourth quarter, and how to grasp the later trend - Supply - side has great uncertainty, including the impact of anti - involution policies and the fuel switch in Shahe. Strategies include going long on glass at low positions, multi - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage, and holding short glass out - of - the - money put options [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Olefins: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefins - polyolefins market is affected by factors such as international oil prices and downstream demand, with futures contracts showing narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market faces challenges like high - volume imports and weak cost support, with prices likely to remain weak [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product. PTA may face supply pressure and potential inventory accumulation; ethylene glycol has a short - term inventory decline but a mid - term accumulation expectation; short fiber may experience inventory changes; bottle chip demand is weakening [5]. - The coal - chemical market has methanol facing inventory and demand issues, with a short - term weak trend but a potential to stop falling; urea may have a short - term rebound [6]. - The chlor - alkali market has PVC following macro - sentiment with a weak fundamental situation, and caustic soda facing supply pressure and low - price operation [7]. - The soda ash - glass market has soda ash influenced by cost and macro - sentiment, with a long - term oversupply situation; glass shows a bottom - rising trend but with limited downstream demand [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly, affected by falling international oil prices and weakening downstream demand [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuate narrowly. PE has inventory pressure and price resistance from downstream; PP has little market change at the end of the month [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebound slightly, but face pressure from high imports and potential port inventory accumulation [3]. - Styrene futures remain weak due to factors like weak cost, limited port de - stocking, and unplanned device outages with limited impact [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices are affected by external sentiment and supply - demand factors. PTA has supply pressure but a short - term positive sentiment, with a mid - term inventory accumulation risk [5]. - Ethylene glycol follows the external market, with production increasing and short - term inventory decline but mid - term accumulation expected [5]. - Short fiber has a good spot pattern but may face inventory accumulation again; bottle chip demand weakens with long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol rebounds slightly, with port inventory decreasing slightly but facing uncertainties in future supply. It is expected to be weak in the short - term but may stop falling [6]. - Urea inventory decreases, and the short - term market may have a phased rebound due to support from demand and coal prices [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC rises with market sentiment but has a weak fundamental situation, with potential supply increase and weak demand [7]. - Caustic soda prices fluctuate narrowly, with supply increasing and downstream demand weak, expected to run at a low level [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are strong due to cost increase and market news, with a long - term oversupply situation [8]. - Glass prices show a bottom - rising trend, affected by cost and downstream demand, with limited decline space [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Log: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, natural rubber, pulp, log, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today. Spot cotton prices were stable, and the Xinjiang cotton purchase price was slightly stronger, raising new cotton costs. As of October 26, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for cotton yarn spinning enterprises. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was a rebound with limited space. It's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start squeezing, with expected increased production. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong, with potential syrup import control. The market focused on the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. High - quality apples' prices were stable, while low - quality ones were weak. High - quality apples were in short supply, and low - quality ones had inventory pressure. The market focused on cold - storage inventory. National apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production might be adjusted down. New - season cold - storage initial inventory might be higher than expected. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Stimulated by the news of Sino - US leaders' meeting, RU&NR fluctuated up, and BR first declined then rose. Global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rose slightly. Tire operating rate recovered slightly, and product inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, while butadiene rubber social inventory increased. The strategy is to bet on a rebound and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.055 billion tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was average. It's recommended to wait and see or do short - term operations [6] Log - The futures price was weak. Spot prices were stable. In October, New Zealand radiata pine quotes increased. Domestic importers' willingness declined. Port outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory was low. Low inventory supported prices. It's recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [4] - The coking coal price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [6] - The silicon manganese price follows the steel trend [7] - The ferrosilicon price follows the steel trend [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The thread's apparent demand is warming up, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. The hot - rolled demand is rising, production is flat, and inventory has decreased. Iron - water production is high, and downstream capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are high. The market may be strong in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are high and stronger than last year, while domestic arrivals are below the annual average, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Demand: Iron - water production is falling, and steel mills' profitability is low. There is a production - cut pressure. The market may fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - There is an expectation of a third price increase. Coking profit is average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Inventory is almost unchanged. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [4] Coking Coal - There is short - term production - cut pressure on iron - water due to environmental protection in Tangshan. Coal mine production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Production has slightly decreased, inventory has slightly decreased, and the price follows the steel trend [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Export demand is stable, and the price follows the steel trend [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly defined by the star system in the given context 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and a strategy combination of shorting crude oil and buying out - of - the - money call options should be considered [2] - For fuel oil, there is short - term support for high - sulfur fuel oil, but the medium - term supply will be loose; low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, but there are potential supports, and the opportunity to go long on the low - high sulfur spread can be considered [2] - The "peak season" demand for asphalt is weaker than expected, and the medium - to - long - term expectation of slower inventory reduction restricts the upside space [3] - The fundamentals of LPG have improved marginally, providing short - term support [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC12 contract falling 0.81% during the day [2] - The US API crude and refined product inventories decreased more than expected last week, but the US sanctions on Russia have room for maneuver [2] - The easing of Sino - US trade games limits the intensity of sensitive oil sanctions and the upper limit of supply fluctuations [2] - Under the background of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and continuous inventory accumulation pressure, the rebound space of oil prices is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil still follows crude oil [2] - In the short term, the escalation of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US intensifies the supply risk of high - sulfur fuel oil, and there is support from feedstock demand under the constraint of domestic crude oil quotas in the fourth quarter [2] - In the medium term, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose due to limited geopolitical risk fermentation, uncertain import policies, increased exports from the Middle East to Asia, and the end of the power generation peak season [2] - The low - sulfur market is weak, with abundant overseas supply and high Asian arrivals, but there may be support from diesel market transmission and seasonal increase in East Asian power generation demand in the fourth quarter [2] - There are signals of weakening relative strength between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market, and the opportunity to go long on the low - high sulfur spread can be considered [2] Asphalt - The asphalt futures fluctuated today [3] - The planned production of refineries in November decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [3] - Terminal demand in the north is blocked by cooling, while that in the south has improved due to better weather, and the terminal demand in Shandong is average [3] - The year - on - year high - growth rate of shipments since October is difficult to sustain [3] - The overall commercial inventory decreased month - on - month, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, restricting the upside space [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG performed relatively strongly in oil product futures today, with the main contract rising 1.2% [4] - The external market price stabilized and rebounded, and the commodity volume and import arrivals of liquefied gas decreased [4] - The improvement of chemical profits has promoted demand growth, and the demand for combustion has improved due to significant cooling in many places [4] - The storage rates of ports and refineries have decreased, and the marginal improvement of fundamentals provides short - term support [4]

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices fell overnight, with Brent's December contract down 1.96%. Considering geopolitical games, the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, and OPEC+ production increases, the upside for oil price rebounds is limited. A strategy combining short positions in crude oil and out - of - the - money call options is recommended [2] - Precious metals continued to decline overnight. With the easing of trade tensions and the upcoming meeting on a cease - fire plan, short - term safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Wait patiently for stabilization before participation, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices showed resilience overnight. Supply disruptions and a high gold - to - copper ratio support copper prices. There is still potential in the volume and price of Shanghai copper. Pay attention to the callback range and buy on dips [4] - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly overnight. Short - term macro - positive sentiment dominates, but the fundamental resonance is limited. Be cautious about the upside [5] - For cast aluminum alloy, scrap aluminum sources are tight, and tax policy adjustment expectations increase costs. However, with high industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts, it follows aluminum prices and has no independent market [6] - Alumina has a high operating capacity and rising inventory. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is mainly in a weak operation [7] - Zinc smelters in China are actively operating, and as winter storage approaches, TC for both domestic and foreign mines has decreased. The opening of the spot export window and low LME inventories support its strong performance, pulling up the Shanghai zinc market. It is expected to fluctuate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8] - The demand for lead has weakened as downstream battery enterprises are less accepting of high prices. The fundamentals of lead are turning weak. Long - position holders should exit on rallies [9] - Nickel prices are in a weak operation. The nickel industry chain is constrained by over - supply, and downstream demand is cautious. The price center is likely to move down [10] - Tin prices oscillated higher overnight. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - disturbing factors have eased. Tin prices follow copper prices, and a small short position can be tentatively established [11] Group 3: Industrial Metals and Alloys - The price of lithium carbonate pulled back after rising. The futures price is strengthening, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of actual inventory and policy increments [12] - After the release of positive factors for polysilicon listed companies, the upward momentum on the disk is under pressure. There is a risk of a callback in the short term without new policy support [13] - Industrial silicon futures fell slightly. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, but there are expectations of supply improvement in November. The disk is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is improving, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is rising. However, the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industry chain remains. The price rebound is restricted by weak demand expectations [15] - Iron ore prices rebounded overnight. The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] Group 5: Coal - Related Products - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, but coking profits are average. The price may be more likely to rise than fall [17] - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Although there is a short - term impact on hot - metal production, the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant. The price may be more likely to rise than fall [18] - Manganese silicon prices oscillated. The demand is affected by the possible decline in hot - metal production. The price follows the trend of steel [19] - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The overall demand is acceptable, and the price follows the trend of steel [20] Group 6: Shipping - The spot market quotes for the container shipping index (European line) have been lowered, suppressing market sentiment. The disk may oscillate in the near term, and it is recommended to build positions on dips [21] Group 7: Fuels and Asphalt - Fuel oil prices fell overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals but may get some support from geopolitical factors and winter power - generation demand [22] - The planned production of asphalt in November is significantly lower. The "peak - season" demand is weaker than expected, and the upward space for prices is limited [23] Group 8: Liquefied Petroleum Gas and Chemicals - The price of liquefied petroleum gas has been boosted by the improvement in fundamentals, such as reduced supply and increased demand [24] - Urea prices pulled back. The supply - surplus situation persists, but there may be a phased rebound after the price drops to a low level [25] - Methanol futures prices continued to fall. The port inventory is under pressure, and the market is likely to oscillate at a low level [26] - Pure benzene prices continued to fall overnight. The mid - term pressure comes from high imports. A reverse - spread strategy on the monthly spread is recommended [27] - Styrene prices are under long - term pressure due to high inventory in the industry chain [28] - The supply pressure of polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene is difficult to ease. The impact on prices is limited [29] - PVC prices fluctuate narrowly. The fundamentals are weak, and it may operate in a bottom - range. Caustic soda prices continue to weaken, and the supply pressure is high [30] - PX and PTA prices fell slightly. The supply pressure is large, and a reverse - spread strategy is recommended in the medium term [31] - Ethylene glycol production is increasing. There is a mid - term inventory - accumulation expectation. Short positions can be established on price increases [32] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost. Short - fiber may accumulate inventory again, and bottle - chip processing margins are under pressure [33] Group 9: Building Materials - Glass prices rose slightly. The spot market in Shahe shows marginal improvement. The price decline is expected to be limited at present [34] - For natural rubber and its derivatives, demand is gradually recovering, but supply pressure is large. Market sentiment is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35] - Soda ash costs are rising, and supply is increasing slightly. A high - short strategy is recommended after a price rebound [36] Group 10: Agricultural Products - US soybeans and domestic soybean meal prices rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions. Wait and see for now and look for long - position opportunities after the Sino - US trade issue is resolved [37] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by trade expectations and supply - demand factors. In the long term, it is recommended to go long on vegetable oils on dips [38] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are affected by factors such as Sino - Australian relations and Russian exports. Rapeseed meal prices may rebound in the short term, while rapeseed oil prices are under pressure [39] - Soybean No. 1 prices rose rapidly from a low level. Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic policies [40] - Corn prices are under pressure due to the continuous supply of new grain. Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [41] - Live - hog futures prices weakened significantly, while spot prices rose. After the price rebound, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [42] - Egg prices failed to continue rising. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [43] - Cotton prices are supported by the increase in new - cotton costs. The short - term price increase is a rebound with limited space. Wait and see for now [44] - Sugar prices are under pressure due to sufficient international supply. In China, the focus is on the new - season production estimate [45] - Apple prices are relatively strong. High - quality apples have stable prices, but low - quality apples may face inventory pressure [46] - Wood prices are weak. Low inventory provides strong support. Wait and see for now [47] - Pulp prices may oscillate in a bottom - range. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average [48] Group 11: Financial Products - A - share stocks oscillated and sorted. The macro - level uncertainty is reduced, but funds are still cautious. Focus on technology - growth sectors for asset allocation [49] - Treasury futures rose across the board. The Fed's policy direction is uncertain, and the domestic bond market is in a repair stage [50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (judged as a more distinct short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1][6] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (judged as a more distinct short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1][6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (judged as a more distinct short - term bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not explicitly rated Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and a strategy combination of shorting crude oil and buying out - of - the - money call options should be considered [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term but may face a more abundant supply in the medium - term; low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue weak oscillations but its crack spread may get some support [3] - The "peak season" demand of asphalt is weaker than expected, and the medium - and long - term expectation of slower inventory reduction restricts its upside [3] - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas have marginally improved, providing short - term support [4] Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - Since the fourth quarter, global petroleum inventories have increased by 1.8%, with crude oil inventories up 3.5% and refined oil inventories down 1.1% [2] - The joint escalation of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US and the optimistic signals from the China - US - Malaysia talks supported the rebound of crude oil, but the easing of China - US trade game restricts the intensity of sanctions on sensitive oil and the upper limit of supply reduction. Considering the continuous inventory build - up pressure under OPEC+ continuous production increase, the rebound space of oil prices is limited [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After two days of geopolitically - driven increases, the market sentiment has been digested, and fuel oil prices declined with the cost side today [3] - In the short - term, high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the expected reduction in Russian exports and domestic feedstock demand under crude oil quota constraints, but the actual implementation of Russian export reduction needs attention. In the medium - term, supply tends to be abundant [3] - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are weak, with abundant overseas supply and high Asian arrivals. However, geopolitical factors may support it through the diesel market, and the crack spread may get some support in the fourth quarter [3] Asphalt - The BU2601 contract faced pressure near 3300 yuan/ton, and other contracts also entered a volatile trend [3] - In November, the planned production of refineries nationwide decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Terminal demand was blocked in the north due to cooling, improved in the south due to better weather, and was average in Shandong. The high year - on - year growth rate of shipments since October is hard to sustain [3] - The overall commercial inventory decreased month - on - month, and the "peak season" demand was weaker than expected, restricting the upside of asphalt [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG futures continued to oscillate today. The external price stabilized and rebounded, the commodity volume and import arrivals decreased, and demand increased due to improved chemical profits and cold weather. Port storage capacity utilization decreased by 3.3%, and refinery storage capacity utilization decreased slightly by 0.4% [4] - The marginal improvement in fundamentals provides short - term support for LPG [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive trend prediction**: Soybean No. 1, soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **Negative trend prediction**: Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs are rated with one star, suggesting a bias towards short - term trends but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, supply and demand, and policies. Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of soybean No. 1 futures rebounded rapidly from the low today, covering the decline of the previous two days and accompanied by an increase in positions. The domestic soybean auction had a premium, with an average transaction price of 3,925 yuan/ton and a premium of 0 - 140 yuan/ton. The transaction rate was 34.49%. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the imported soybean trade and the policy guidance of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the easing of Sino - US negotiations, US soybeans rose continuously this week, and the 2601 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange decreased its positions by more than 70,000 lots and rose 1.40% today. The current domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the soybean meal pick - up has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly on a weekly basis. Attention should be paid to the APEC summit at the end of the month. Amid many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, continue to wait and see and look for long - position opportunities after the Sino - US trade issue is resolved [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contract of US soybeans continued to rise. Although the Brazilian soybean CIF premium fell and the RMB continued to appreciate, the domestic imported soybean cost still increased. The futures market showed a pattern of strong meal and weak oil, and the soybean crushing profit was still in the red. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - to - meal ratio correction. In the long run, palm oil is expected to be resilient, and it is recommended to allocate vegetable oils on dips. In the short term, be cautious about the price correction of palm oil due to the pressure in the Malaysian market [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal rose significantly, and the rapeseed sector was stronger than its competitors, which was related to market concerns about Sino - Australian relations. The export of Australian rapeseed to China is not yet stable. The Russian rapeseed has been listed for crushing, and its export trade to China is not optimistic. The rapeseed oil price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, while the rapeseed meal price has short - term rebound momentum [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures rose 0.28% today. The supply of new corn in the Northeast continues, and the price has risen slightly. The new corn in Jilin may be listed in large quantities again soon, which will suppress the market price. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. With the possible easing of Sino - US relations, the corn import situation should be continuously monitored. The Dalian corn is expected to continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures weakened significantly today, showing a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The spot price continued to rise, with the national average slaughter price reaching 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan. The futures increased positions and declined, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Although the supply pressure is still large, the large price difference between fattening pigs may promote second - round fattening and hog retention, and the pork consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous supply pressure, a short - position strategy is recommended after the price rebounds. The pig price is likely to form a double - bottom pattern, and a second bottom may occur in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures failed to continue the previous upward trend, opening lower this morning and oscillating downward throughout the day without filling the gap. The near - month contract led the decline today, and the positions decreased by 10,000 lots. The spot price in Hebei started to fall, with a large decline in the price of small eggs. In the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. The unsold cold - storage eggs are also a potential pressure on the spot market. A short - position strategy is recommended at high prices [9].