Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views - On December 19, 2025, A-share market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.36%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.66%, and ChiNext Index up 0.49%. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1725.9 billion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and policy [4][5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 19, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890.45, up 0.36%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13140.21, up 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3122.24, up 0.49%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1725.9 billion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4568.18, a rise of 15.38 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 19, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1702.6, up 34.0; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1089.9 yuan, down 0.9 [2][3]. - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round price cut. The coking profit has recovered due to the decline in coal cost. Terminal steel mills' profits are under pressure, and iron - water production is decreasing. There is a slight increase in upstream mine inventory [4]. - Coking coal: Production has decreased significantly and will continue to decline before New Year's Day. Mongolian coal imports are surging, and the port inventory is close to 3.56 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is limited [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as a large short - term decline, a rebound in US sugar, and a decline in November's import volume, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose slightly last Friday. China's sugar imports in November were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. From January to November, imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [5]. Rubber - Affected by the increase in Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory and warehouse receipts, Shanghai rubber fell slightly last Friday. As of December 19, natural rubber inventory was 110,885 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5343 tons; futures warehouse receipts were 87,160 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,170 tons. For 20 - grade rubber, inventory was 61,084 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons; futures warehouse receipts were 58,968 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons [6]. Palm Oil - On the night of December 19, palm oil futures prices continued the weak trend during the day, with a slight low - level fluctuation. Indonesia has started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 19, CBOT soybean futures prices were weak. Brazil's soybean sowing is almost complete, with favorable weather for growth, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. Argentina's sowing progress is slow, and some institutions have lowered its production forecast. - Domestically, the M2605 main contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is significant. The support of cost on price has weakened [6]. Live Hogs - On December 19, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The supply of live hogs is loose, but the demand in the southwest region is improving due to the approaching peak of curing and pickling. The price is under pressure but also supported to some extent [6]. Shanghai Copper - On December 19, the Shanghai Copper CU2602 main contract closed at 93,180 yuan/ton. Macro factors both support and pressure the price. Supply is limited, and demand has both positive and negative factors [6]. Logs - The Log 2603 main contract opened at 778.5, closed at 779, with an increase of 95 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is stable, and future price support needs to be observed [8]. Iron Ore - On December 19, the Iron Ore 2605 main contract rose 0.52% to close at 780 yuan. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the price is in a volatile trend [8]. Asphalt - On December 19, the Asphalt 2602 main contract fell 1.95% to close at 2909 yuan. Supply is increasing, demand is shrinking in the off - season, and the price is in a volatile trend [8]. Cotton - On the night of December 19, the Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 14405 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 251 lots. Cotton - spinning enterprises replenish inventory as needed [8]. Steel - The steel market has both supply and demand decreasing. The macro - policy is in a window period, and the demand is weak. The market will be dominated by fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate narrowly [8]. Alumina - The supply of raw materials is sufficient. Due to low prices, domestic production capacity and operation may decline slightly. The demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The market is in a stage of oversupply [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - The price of alumina is falling, while the price of spot aluminum is strong, and the profit of aluminum plants is expanding. Supply is stable, and demand has some resilience but may be affected by the off - season. The market is in a tight supply - demand balance [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 18, 2025 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to 3876.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the Chi - Next Index dropped 2.17% to 3107.06 points, with a turnover of 1655.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 155.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.79, down 27.08 [2] 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index was strong, closing at 1697.5, up 89.8. Spot supply increased slightly, and steel mills' coke inventory rose significantly. As of December 11, 45 sample steel mills' coke inventory was 231.6 million tons, up 9.5% from mid - November. Steel mills' consumption decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and declining hot metal production [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index was trending stronger, closing at 1107.4 yuan, up 62.5. As of December 15, the price had dropped by over 200 yuan/ton. Coking plants' profit margins increased, but they faced inventory pressure due to weak seasonal demand from steel mills and tight railway transportation at the end of the year [3][5] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract declined on December 18. The US Department of Agriculture predicted that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season would increase by 8.3 million tons (4.6%) to 1.89318 billion tons, consumption would increase by 1.1% to a record 1.77921 billion tons, and the ending inventory would decline by 2.9% to 41.188 million tons [5][6] 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai Rubber futures closed slightly lower on December 18. Thailand's southern rainfall was forecast to decrease from December 17 - 23, and the spot price in Southeast Asia declined. Tire factories'开工 rate decreased, with semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization at 70.01% (down 0.13 percentage points month - on - month and 8.67 percentage points year - on - year) and full - steel tire sample enterprises' at 63.61% (down 0.94 percentage points month - on - month and up 3.72 percentage points year - on - year) [6] 2.4 Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans continued to weaken. As of November 27, US soybean export sales were 1.116 million tons. Brazil's soybean planting was almost finished with good weather. Brazil's December soybean export was expected to be 3.57 million tons. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2747 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The supply of imported soybeans was abundant, and the soybean meal inventory was high [6] 2.5 Live Pigs - The LH2603 main contract closed at 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The supply of live pigs was abundant due to high slaughtering willingness. With the approaching of the southwest curing peak, short - term consumption demand increased [6] 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rebounded on December 18 but faced strong resistance. Malaysia lowered its January reference price of crude palm oil and the export tariff to 9.5% [6][7] 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper futures oscillated at a high level on December 18. The supply side had low copper concentrate processing fees and limited increase in smelting production, while the demand side was affected by high prices, with social inventory accumulating slightly [7] 2.8 Cotton - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13965 yuan/ton at night on December 18. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton in November 2025, up 9.4% year - on - year, and 890,000 tons from January - November, down 64% year - on - year [7] 2.9 Iron Ore - The Iron Ore 2605 main contract rose 1.63% to 777.5 yuan on December 18. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, with the iron ore market in a supply - increase and demand - weak pattern [7] 2.10 Asphalt - The Asphalt 2602 main contract rose 0.68% to 2952 yuan on December 18. The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the market was in a supply - demand double - weak pattern [7] 2.11 Logs - The Logs 2603 main contract closed at 778 on December 18. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to spot - end support, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7][8] 2.12 Steel - On December 18, rb2605 was at 3125 yuan/ton and hc2605 was at 3277 yuan/ton. The coking coal production rebounded, and the steel market was in a weak balance in the off - season. With the rebound of raw material prices, steel prices were expected to oscillate slightly stronger [8] 2.13 Alumina - The ao2601 contract was at 2553 yuan/ton on December 18. The alumina market had a supply surplus, and the inventory was at a high level. Some producers' maintenance or exit led to a technical rebound in futures prices, but the overall trend was still weak [9] 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - The al2602 contract was at 21955 yuan/ton on December 18. High prices suppressed terminal demand, and the actual spot trading was insufficient. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at a historical low due to transportation problems in the northwest [9] 3. Investment Suggestions - For soybean meal, track South American weather and soybean arrival volume [6] - For live pigs, focus on the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughtering rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of curing consumption [6] - For logs, pay attention to spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 17, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19% to 3870.28, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.40% to 13224.51, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.39% to 3175.91. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1811.1 billion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4579.88, a rise of 82.32 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1610.9, a rise of 18.5 [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index closed at 1045.1 yuan, a rise of 4.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar (2605 contract): Oscillated and slightly declined during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Rubber: Oscillated upward during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Soybean Meal (M2605 contract): Closed at 2756 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.76% [5]. - Live Pigs (LH2603 contract): Closed at 11435 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.75% [5]. - Palm Oil (P2605 contract): Closed at 8342, a decline of 0.81% [5]. - Shanghai Copper (2602 contract): Closed at 92820, showing a strong - oscillating pattern [5]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13955 yuan/ton [5]. - Iron Ore (2605 contract): Rose 1.25% to 768 yuan [6]. - Asphalt (2602 contract): Rose 3.58% to 3012 yuan [6]. - Logs (2603 contract): Opened at 771.5, closed at 769, with an increase of 1218 lots in positions [6]. - Alumina (ao2601): Closed at 2558 yuan/ton [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum (al2602): Closed at 21915 yuan/ton [6]. - Steel (rb2605 and hc2605): Closed at 3084 yuan/ton and 3245 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 2. Price - related Information and Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Inventory increased by 14.23%. The short - term demand negative effect of steel export license management has been priced in. Although "industrial regulation" was mentioned, there is limited space for large - scale production cuts. Import coal has obvious incremental expectations, and the short - term winter storage expectation is pessimistic [4]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing. Demand may decline with the weakening of molten iron (molten iron decreased by 3.10 tons). Inventory is accumulating, and the inventory of mine clean coal increased by 3.36%. The price of some types of coking coal and coke has changed:临汾 low - sulfur main coking coal is 1500 yuan/ton (unchanged),乌海 1/3 coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton (+30),临汾 first - grade metallurgical coke is 1805 yuan/ton (-55), and Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1735 yuan/ton (-55) [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the second half of November was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. The French Ministry of Agriculture raised the 2025 beet production forecast to 35.55 million tons, a 9.1% increase from last year [4]. Rubber - Affected by the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, the spot price in Southeast Asia rose, and Shanghai rubber oscillated upward [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly. Brazilian soybeans are in the growth season with favorable weather. Brazil's December soybean export is expected to be 357 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good condition. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, but the extension of customs clearance time eases the supply pressure. Brazilian soybean's good harvest prospects weaken US soybean export demand, and the upward driving force of soybean meal is insufficient [5]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant due to the strong slaughter intention of farmers. The end - of - year concentrated slaughter pressure still exists. However, with the approaching of the pickling peak in Southwest China, the consumption demand has increased in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - The price of palm oil futures continued to decline. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 15 increased by 30.39% compared with the same period last month [5]. Copper - The US non - farm data boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, creating a warm market atmosphere. However, the downstream copper consumption is weak, and the opening rate remains low, but the mine end provides strong support [5]. Iron Ore - The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, the port inventory accumulated, and the molten iron production decreased. The iron ore market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is in an oscillatory trend [6]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the demand in the off - season weakened. The asphalt market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is oscillating [6]. Logs - There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, and the import window is open, while the demand growth is limited. The supply pressure exists, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising. The demand at the end of the year has limited short - term impact on the market, but the spot trading atmosphere is warm [6]. Aluminum - The supply is stable, the downstream aluminum water consumption capacity is okay, but the inventory in production areas is accumulating, and the social inventory is low. The demand is weak, and the spot performance is poor, but some downstream industries have stable demand [6]. Steel - The steel market in the off - season is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Traders are reducing inventory, and downstream terminals are purchasing as needed. The cost provides some support for steel prices [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 16, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11% to 3,824.81, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.51% to 12,914.67, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.10% to 3,071.76. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.7242 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It was weak, closing at 4,497.56, a decrease of 54.51 [2] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: The weighted index continued to rebound, closing at 1,599.0, a rise of 18.8. The environmental protection restrictions in production areas have been basically lifted, and coke enterprises have resumed normal production. However, terminal demand is poor, steel mills' maintenance is increasing, and iron - water production is declining, weakening the rigid demand for coke [2][4] - Coking Coal: The weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1,049.2 yuan, a rise of 13.5. Near the end of the year, supply is tight due to production task completion and other factors, but Mongolian coal imports are increasing. After the sharp drop in spot prices, downstream procurement increased slightly, but the continued price reduction of coke limited the release of downstream demand [3][4] - **Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar)** - The Zheng Sugar 2605 contract declined significantly on December 16 due to factors such as the decline in US sugar and the reduction of spot prices. As of December 15, India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season increased by 28.33% year - on - year to 77.9 million tons, and Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of December increased by 19% compared with the daily average in December last year [4] - **Rubber** - Shanghai Rubber fluctuated narrowly. In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production increased by 11.4% compared with September, and the inventory decreased by 8.9% [4] - **Palm Oil** - The palm oil futures price continued to be weak on December 16, with the main contract hitting a new low. From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% compared with the same period last month [5] - **Asphalt** - The asphalt 2602 main contract fluctuated downwards, with a decline of 2.36% and a closing price of 2,894 yuan. The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, inventory reduction slowed down, and demand was weak in both the north and the south, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [6] 2.2 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, CBOT soybeans were weak. Brazil's soybeans are in the growing season with favorable weather, and the market is worried about the decline in US soybean export demand. Domestically, the M2605 main contract rose 0.69% to 2,777 yuan/ton on December 16. Although the supply of imported soybeans is abundant and the oil mills' operating rate is high, the news of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans has relieved the supply pressure [5] - **Live Pigs** - The LH2603 main contract rose 0.4% to 11,350 yuan/ton on December 16. The supply of live pigs is abundant, but the marginal improvement in consumption is relatively mild. The market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5] 2.3 Metals - **Copper** - The Shanghai Copper 2601 contract closed at 91,840 yuan/ton on December 16. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 9.75% year - on - year, and it is expected to increase by 5.96% in December. The demand for copper products is mixed, and inventory changes vary in different markets [5] - **Iron Ore** - The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 1.06% to 761 yuan on December 16. The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is increasing, the arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory is accumulating, while the iron - water production is decreasing, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [6] - **Steel** - On December 16, rb2605 closed at 3,081 yuan/ton and hc2605 at 3,246 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, but the black futures market's rise has repaired some of the pessimistic expectations [6] - **Aluminum** - The al2602 contract closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on December 16. The macro - market sentiment is cooling, the supply is stable, and the demand is weakening [6] - **Alumina** - The ao2601 contract closed at 2,541 yuan/ton on December 16. The supply is in excess, but the price decline may be limited due to corporate losses and potential industry integration [6] 2.4 Others - **Logs** - The log 2601 contract opened at 753, with a low of 749, a high of 763, and closed at 761.5 on December 16, with a reduction of 1,531 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] - **Cotton** - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton on the night of December 16. The cotton inventory increased by 33 lots, and textile enterprises purchase as needed [5]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 15, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.10% to 13112.09 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.77% to 3137.80 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1773.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 318.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.06, a decrease of 28.89 from the previous day [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: The weighted index of coke rebounded strongly, closing at 1589.2, up 14.3 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal rebounded from oversold levels, closing at 1040.0 yuan, up 31.3 from the previous day [2][3] 2. Futures Market Analysis Coking Coal and Coke - Price Influencing Factors: Large steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of price cuts was basically completed. The spot market sentiment stabilized, but the steel mills' procurement willingness did not recover. Recently, coke enterprises in the northern main production areas received environmental protection restrictions, and the production load of coke ovens is expected to decline. The daily output of molten iron decreased seasonally, and the start - up of coke enterprises was restricted by environmental protection, so the rigid demand for coking coal gradually declined. The enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises for raw material inventory was not high, and the pit - mouth transactions were still sluggish. The winter storage had not started, but the daily output of raw coal in mines was also declining, so the supply pressure did not increase significantly [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Market Trend: Although the US sugar rebounded last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract did not follow. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot price and short - selling pressure, the contract oscillated and declined on Monday and in the night session. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that the sugarcane planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 9.39843 million hectares, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month's estimate and an increase of 1.9% from the previous year. The sugarcane output was estimated to be 697.015577 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month's estimate and a decrease of 1.4% from the previous year [4] Rubber - Market Influencing Factors: The Thai Rubber Authority announced an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote rubber price stability measures. The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November 2025 was 1.57, above the warning line. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08% from the previous period. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber oscillated on Monday, and the varieties rose and fell. In the night session, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher [4] Palm Oil - Market Performance: On December 15, palm oil continued last week's weak consolidation. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji star, with the highest price of 8550, the lowest price of 8442, and the closing price of 8492, a decrease of 0.70% from the previous day. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from December 1 - 15 was 587,657 tons, a decrease of 16.37% from the same period last month [6] Soybean Meal - International Market: Due to concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand and the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, the CBOT soybeans were weak on Monday. Brazilian soybeans have basically completed sowing and entered the growing season, and the weather is generally favorable for crop growth. The early - maturing soybeans in Brazil will enter the harvest period in mid - January. Multiple institutions estimate that its output will still be in the historical high range of over 175 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good growth, and the soil moisture is suitable. The US Department of Agriculture estimated the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the December supply - demand report to be 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November [6] - Domestic Market: On December 15, the main contract M2605 closed at 2752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and oil mills maintain a high crushing rate, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. However, the news of the extended customs clearance time of imported soybeans has fermented, and feed and breeding enterprises need to stock up in advance for the upcoming peak demand season, which eases the supply pressure of soybean meal and boosts the spot price. The high - yield prospect of Brazilian soybeans weakens the export demand of US soybeans, and the domestic supply pressure is concentrated on the far - month contracts. Affected by the US soybean market hitting a 7 - week low, the domestic soybean meal futures market was under pressure and declined [6] Live Pigs - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%. The enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter is high. Large - scale pig enterprises have the expectation of increasing sales at the end of the year to complete the annual plan. The slaughter willingness of retail farmers and secondary fattening households has also increased. The market supply of live pigs is continuously abundant, which directly and continuously suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the pressure of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year still exists, and the pattern of loose supply is difficult to improve quickly. The domestic temperature has gradually decreased, which has promoted the marginal improvement of pork consumption. The traditional pickling cycle in the southwest region has officially started, and the demand for pickled pork and sausage has increased. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly compared with the previous period, providing certain demand support. However, the current consumption recovery is still relatively mild, and there has not been a large - scale concentrated procurement phenomenon, which is difficult to form the core driving force for price increase. The live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [6] Shanghai Copper - Market Performance: The main contract 2601 of Shanghai copper closed at 92,490 yuan/ton. The main continuous contract opened at 93,500 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 94,360 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 90,750 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 92,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1680 yuan from the previous settlement price. The trading volume of the main contract increased to 228,700 lots, and the open interest increased by 31,200 lots to 219,800 lots. The trading volume of the main continuous contract was 183,400 lots, and the open interest was 165,800 lots. Due to the cooling of the macro - market preference, the wavering of the Fed's policy, and the decline of global stock markets, the concern spread to the metal market and dragged down the copper price. On the other hand, December 15 was the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2512 contract, and the 2025 long - term contracts were basically completed. The trade activity declined, and the downstream procurement was weak due to the high copper price, which further affected the trend of Shanghai copper [8] Iron Ore - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2605 of iron ore oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.92% and a closing price of 753 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased month - on - month, the arrival volume continued to decline month - on - month, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand decreased in the off - season, the decline of molten iron output further expanded, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2602 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.54% and a closing price of 2963 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the northern region was flat, and the terminal demand in the southern region was weak. It was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [8] Logs - Market Performance: The log 2601 contract opened at 753.5 on Monday, with the lowest price of 751, the highest price of 765, and closed at 753.5, with a daily reduction of 2234 lots. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9] Cotton - Market Performance: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,020 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday. The cotton inventory increased by 57 lots from the previous trading day. The area control target for the target price of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season was set at about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu or more than 10% from the actual sown area of 41 - 43 million mu in 2025. Xinjiang's cotton planting will undergo a strong structural adjustment [9] Steel - Market Performance: On December 15, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3233 yuan/ton. After the central important meeting, multiple departments have intensively deployed key tasks for 2026, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize through multiple measures and comprehensively rectifying "involution - style" competition. Incremental policies will be introduced and implemented according to the situation next year. The macro - policy still has room for action, which helps to stabilize market sentiment. The coking coal futures rebounded sharply on Monday, providing certain support for steel prices from the cost side. However, the pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market is gradually increasing. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. In the short term, steel prices will be adjusted narrowly [9] Alumina - Market Performance: On December 15, ao2601 closed at 2537 yuan/ton. After the futures price fell below 2500 yuan/ton, it rebounded quickly, and a large number of short - position funds took profits. The current futures price has fallen below the industry's average cash cost line, and the inventory of the entire industrial chain has climbed to a historical peak. Some production enterprises are carrying out maintenance, and some downstream enterprises said they will increase raw material reserves at an appropriate time. Against the background of industry production losses, high - cost production capacity is gradually withdrawing [10] Shanghai Aluminum - Market Performance: On December 15, al2602 closed at 21,920 yuan/ton. Although the macro - level is full of positive atmosphere, it cannot offset the suppression of the fundamentals and capital side in the short term. Domestically, the central economic work conference made it clear that the proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented next year. Overseas, due to the unclear inflation trend and the strength of the labor market, the market faces uncertainty about the direction of the US monetary policy next year. In terms of supply, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 44.39 million tons, and the operating capacity has increased slightly under high profits, with little overall change. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional consumption off - season, the consumption resilience of industries such as automobiles, electricity, and electronics is strong, and there has been no over - seasonal weakening. The proportion of molten aluminum has also remained high [10]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, the A - share market showed a mixed performance across different sectors. Some sectors like stock index futures rose, while others such as coke, coal, and some commodities faced downward pressure. The market is influenced by various factors including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and external news [1][2][3]. - Different commodities are in different supply - demand situations. For example, the soybean market has abundant supply in the short - term but faces long - term supply pressure; the pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand; and the copper market has support from macro and supply - demand factors but also faces callback risks [5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 12, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.97% to 3194.36 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2092.2 billion yuan, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4580.95, a rise of 28.77 compared to the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 12, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1548.6, a decrease of 51.0 compared to the previous day. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 999.7 yuan, a decrease of 34.5 compared to the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the first - round reduction of spot purchase prices has been implemented, supply is stable, but demand may weaken due to potential steel mill production cuts. The second - round price reduction has started, and coking enterprises maintain high production due to improved profitability. For coking coal, affected by Mongolia's plan to increase coal exports next year, it dropped significantly on the 11th. The supply is tight, but the Mongolian coal port's customs clearance has recovered to a high level, and the market trading sentiment is cold [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of short - term technical indicators, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing up the US sugar price on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly higher. As of the week ending November 18, speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,860 lots to 201,910 lots [4]. Rubber - Affected by Thailand's rubber price - stabilizing measures, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Friday. As of December 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 12324 tons to 105542 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 11460 tons to 56990 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 604 tons to 61689 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2218 tons to 59573 tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - Multiple institutions estimate that the soybean production in South America is still at a historically high level. The sowing of Argentine soybeans is 58% complete, and the crop quality is fair. The US Department of Agriculture estimates Brazil's and Argentina's soybean production at 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November. - On December 12, the M2605 main contract of domestic bean meal closed at 2770 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.73%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil mills have a high crushing volume. However, the extension of customs clearance time and the pre - holiday stocking of feed enterprises have relieved the supply pressure of bean meal. The bean meal futures show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [5]. Live Pigs - On December 12, the LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11325 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.94%. The supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, which suppresses the futures price. Although the consumption of pork has improved marginally due to the drop in temperature and the start of the traditional curing season in the southwest region, the current consumption recovery is still mild, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. Shanghai Copper - On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of rising during the day and falling sharply at night, with a slight overall increase. The highest price was 94360 yuan/ton, and it closed at 91550 yuan/ton at night. Short - term macro - economic easing and supply - demand balance support the copper price, but high prices may suppress downstream demand and lead to profit - taking and callback risks [6]. Iron Ore - On December 12, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.33% to 760.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore increased, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season decreased, and the iron water production decreased further. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On December 12, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.34% to 2962 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the north was flat, and the terminal demand in the south was weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On Friday, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 747.5, with the lowest price of 743.5, the highest price of 750, and closed at 749, with an increase of 10 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged compared to the previous day, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7][8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13905 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 142 lots compared to the previous day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [8]. Steel - The Central Economic Work Conference released positive macro - policy signals, which are conducive to market stability. However, the steel market is currently dominated by fundamentals. On the 12th, cold wave, snowstorm, and gale warnings were issued, and the demand for steel in the off - season further weakened. In the short term, the demand contraction may be greater than the supply, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the steel price shows a weak and volatile trend [8]. Alumina - As the pre - Spring Festival transportation capacity decreases and the delivery warehouse releases expired warehouse receipts, holders' inventory and sales pressure increase, leading to low - price sales. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises have sufficient raw material inventory, and although short - term production cuts may drive the price up, it is difficult to pass on the price increase to the end - market. The overall supply of ore is increasing, and the price is in a downward process. The alumina market has a supply - demand mismatch, the social inventory is accumulating, and the cost - side support is weakening [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. The transportation in the northwest is restricted, and the arrival at the consumption area is normal. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, the aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. The current market is more affected by macro - expectations, with macro - factors being positive and fundamentals having both long and short factors [8].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（12 月 11 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.70%，收报 3873.32 点；深 证成指跌 1.27%，收报 13147.39 点；创业板指跌 1.41%，收报 3163.67 点。沪深两市成交额达到 18571 亿，较昨 日放量 786 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 11 日弱势。收盘 4552.19，环比下跌 39.64。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 11 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价 1568.8，环比下跌 44.6。 12 月 11 日，焦煤加权指数弱势运行，收盘价 1008.9 元，环比下跌 45.9。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 客服产品系列•日评 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：现货采购价格第一轮下调落地，焦化企业开工稳定，焦炭供应量平稳；因高炉利润持续压缩，钢厂减 产力度或将加大，对焦炭的需求或将转弱。 焦煤：安检督查对主产地煤矿生产的影响在减弱，国产焦煤产量环比持续回升，进口煤增量明显，供 ...

12 月 10 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1040.2 元，环比下跌 15.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：供应维持增长，焦炭利润修复带动产量回升，短期钢厂打压意愿偏强。存在跟随铁水疲软而下滑，铁 水下跌 2.38 万吨，库存维持累库，焦厂焦炭库存累库 6.25%。供需压力延续，库存持续大幅累库。此外截止 12 月 7 日，仅两家钢厂发布冬储政策，考虑到参与冬储的钢厂数量累积和落地时间，预期冬储驱动或将延后到 12 月下旬。 焦煤：临汾低硫主焦煤 1500 元/吨（0），乌海 1/3 焦煤 1080 元/吨（0），临汾一级冶金焦 1860 元/吨(0）， 日照准一级冶金焦 1790 元/吨（0）。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 10 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.23%，收报 3900.50 点； 深证成指涨 0.29%，收报 13316.42 点；创业板指跌 0.02%，收报 3209.00 点。沪深两市成交额 17785 亿，较昨日 缩量 1 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（12 月 9 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.37%，收报 3909.52 点；深 证成指跌 0.39%，收报 13277.36 点；创业板指涨 0.61%，收报 3209.60 点。沪深两市成交额达到 19040 亿，较昨 日缩量 1327 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 9 日回调整理。收盘 4598.22，环比下跌 23.53。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 9 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1583.1，环比下跌 35.2。 12 月 9 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 1052.8 元，环比下跌 25.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：市场对焦炭第二轮提降仍有预期，焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量 按需采购，库存变动不大，贸易商采购意愿一般。 【郑糖】美糖周一波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收高。郑糖 2605 月合约周二窄幅震荡小幅收高。因空头打压郑糖 2605 月合约夜盘震荡小幅走低。巴西对外贸易秘书处（Sece ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 8, 2025, the A-share market showed a mixed performance across various futures and commodities. The stock index futures had a strong performance, while the coke and coking coal futures were weak. Other commodities such as sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc., also had their own market trends influenced by different factors including supply - demand relationships, international trade, and policy - related news [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 8, the A - share three major indexes all closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54% to close at 3924.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39% to 13329.99 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.60% to 3190.27 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 20366 billion, a significant increase of 3109 billion from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index remained strong, closing at 4621.76, a ring - up of 37.22 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 8, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1600.7, a ring - down of 85.3. The coking coal weighted index also operated weakly, closing at 1062.9 yuan, a ring - down of 70.2. The first round of coke price cuts was implemented. The current iron - water output is 232.30 (- 2.38) million tons, and coke inventory is moderately weak. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 30 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal is reported at 1390, equivalent to 1170 on the futures market. The mine capacity utilization rate has declined for two consecutive weeks, and the inventory in the middle - and - upper reaches has increased for 4 - 5 consecutive weeks [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Although the spot price has been slightly lowered, due to the large decline recently, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rebounded slightly on December 8 under the influence of technical factors. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. The 2025/26 national unified initial pricing plan for sugarcane has been approved, with a guide price of 890 Thai baht per ton for a sweetness level of 10 CCS, and a price fluctuation range of 53.40 Thai baht per CCS unit [4]. Rubber - On December 8, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly. At night, it declined slightly due to short - selling pressure. The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association predicted that the total tire shipments in the United States in 2025 would be 337.4 million, a slight increase of 0.03% compared to 2024 and an increase of 1.4% compared to 2019 [4][5]. Palm Oil - On December 8, the main contract of palm oil fluctuated downward after rising and then falling, and the position was shifted. The P2601 K - line closed with a negative line, with the highest price of 8810, the lowest price of 8682, and the closing price of 8706, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous day. As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 683,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,200 tons or 4.62%, and a year - on - year increase of 167,000 tons or 32.32% [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 8, the CBOT soybean futures price was weak. The U.S. export outlook is uncertain, and Brazilian soybean sowing is nearly complete, with most analysts expecting the Brazilian soybean yield to exceed 170 million tons. As of November 26, the soybean sowing rate in Argentina was 36%, compared with 45% in the same period last year. Domestically, on December 8, soybean meal increased in position and declined. The M2605 main contract closed at 2778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%. China's soybean imports in November were 8.107 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and the highest since 2021. In the first 11 months of this year, China's soybean imports reached 137.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal supply remains in a loose state [5]. Live Pigs - On December 8, the LH2603 contract closed at 11385 yuan/ton, unchanged. The slaughter enthusiasm of the breeding end is relatively high. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in December increased month - on - month. The market supply continues to be abundant, suppressing the price. On the demand side, the decline in domestic temperature has promoted a marginal recovery in pork consumption, but the overall progress is slow, and the demand - side recovery rhythm is relatively gentle. The current live - pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper continued to be strong and reached a new high. The expectation of supply contraction and macro - positive factors resonated to push up the price. The main contract of Shanghai copper reached a maximum of 93300 yuan/ton during the session and closed at 92970 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the CSPT group advocated a 10% reduction in copper ore smelting capacity. The supply contraction expectation continues to strengthen, and the copper concentrate processing fee is at a historical low. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory continues to accumulate, but the global copper visible inventory is still at a low level. On the demand side, the high copper price makes downstream procurement more cautious, but the demand in the photovoltaic, wind power, and new - energy vehicle fields provides some support [5]. Cotton - On the night of December 8, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13765 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 44 lots compared with the previous trading day. The cotton picking in Xinjiang is basically completed, and cotton farmers are waiting for a better price [5]. Iron Ore - On December 8, the 2601 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and declined, with a decline of 1.14% and a closing price of 778.5 yuan. The iron ore shipping volume increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron - water output decline increased. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [5][6]. Asphalt - On December 8, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.34% and a closing price of 2959 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the inventory reduction rate slowed down, the demand - side road construction projects are ending, and the short - term asphalt price shows a volatile trend [6]. Logs - On December 8, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 765.5, with a minimum of 765.5, a maximum of 772.5, and a closing of 769.5, with a daily position reduction of 808 lots. Attention should be paid to the position shift and the support from the spot end. The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on December 8. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and subsequent attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. Steel - On December 8, the rb2605 contract was reported at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract was reported at 3291 yuan/ton. The sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures drove the entire black futures to weaken, and the cost support declined, dragging down the steel price. The weak demand in the off - season and the environmental protection restrictions in some areas led to an increase in the number of steel mill overhauls. The short - term steel market supply - demand may be in a weak balance, and the decline in raw material prices drives the steel price to be weak [6]. Alumina - On December 8, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2585 yuan/ton. The actual willingness to reduce production is extremely weak during the year - end long - term contract negotiation period. The extremely low spot transaction prices have hit market confidence. The "cost - support" logic has been completely weakened, and the current price has fallen below the cash cost line, but there is no large - scale overhaul, and the oversupply sentiment dominates the market [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 8, the al2601 contract was reported at 22275 yuan/ton. The strong performance of the copper market has a strong guiding effect on aluminum, but the upward pressure on aluminum is relatively strong. The market is still waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. On the supply side, the operation is stable, the downstream aluminum - water absorption capacity is acceptable, the social inventory is slightly reduced, and the demand side shows some resilience. However, the spot maintains a high discount [6].