Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 26, 2026 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4132.61, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.85% to 14316.64, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.91% to 3319.15. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 328.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.27 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Stock Indices: The CSI 300 index fluctuated slightly, closing at 4706.96, up 4.47 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1721.1, up 7.4 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated slightly and closed at 1166.2 yuan, up 15.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly lower due to the decline of US sugar on Friday and stable spot prices. At night, it continued to decline slightly under short - selling pressure [4]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted due to large short - term gains. At night, it continued to fluctuate and closed slightly lower [4]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1060 cents per bushel, down 0.7%. The domestic soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan per ton, down 0.65% [5]. - Live Pigs: The live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11465 yuan per ton, down 0.86% [5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price continued to rise with increased positions, breaking through the 9000 integer mark. The main contract P2605 closed at 9092, up 2.04% [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The Shanghai copper closed at 101880 yuan per ton, with an opening price of 102800, a high of 103880, a low of 101760, and a settlement price of 102760 [5]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14580 yuan per ton at night, with an increase of 172 lots in inventory [5]. - Logs: The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, with a low of 773, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776, with a decrease of 1129 lots in positions [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 784.5 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2603 main contract fluctuated and rose 1.39% to close at 3279 yuan [7]. - Steel: The rb2605 closed at 3143 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3302 yuan per ton [7]. - Alumina: The ao2605 closed at 2732 yuan per ton [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 closed at 24215 yuan per ton [7]. 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The expectation of the first - round price increase is strengthening, with wet - quenched coke expected to increase by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. Iron production increased slightly, but the recovery was limited due to previous accidents [4]. - Coking Coal: Mines resumed production after the Spring Festival, and the output of sample mines rebounded, with the pre - holiday output expected to have peaked. Mongolian coal port transactions were average, and the port inventory exceeded 3.9 million tons. In 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. In December 2025, the import volume was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% but a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. In 2025, China's total export of coke was 794.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.53%. In December 2025, the export volume was 1.0045 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.95% and a year - on - year increase of 80.18% [4]. Soybean Meal - International: The US soybean export sales reached a record high this year, but the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was lower than the five - year average, and the dry weather in southern Argentina raised concerns about crop conditions. - Domestic: The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills exceeded 2 million tons, increasing soybean meal output. Pre - holiday stocking demand started, but the soybean meal futures price lacked continuous upward momentum due to expected sufficient post - holiday soybean supply. It is recommended to track South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - Supply: The slaughter rhythm of farmers accelerated. Although the monthly slaughter plan of group pig enterprises decreased, the actual slaughter level remained high, and many large - scale pig enterprises cut prices to sell. Some farmers may advance the February slaughter to January. - Demand: Southern pickling is coming to an end, reducing the demand for large pigs. Cold snap boosted pork consumption, and pre - holiday stocking started, but the medium - term supply pressure remains high. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the actual demand during the peak season [5]. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 25, 2026, compared to the same period last month, with an increase of 7.97% according to AmSpec and 9.97% according to ITS [5]. Shanghai Copper - Macro expectations are positive, and the low TC of the ore end and tight inventory support the cost. However, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs before the Spring Festival, and the consumption off - season restricts price elasticity. Speculative sentiment is restricted by a 10% margin and an 8% price limit [5]. Logs - The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. Iron Ore - The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, and iron production increased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - The overall refinery supply remains low, and the inventory accumulates slightly but is controllable. The demand is weak due to cold weather. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the supply - demand balance and healthy inventory support the price. However, the winter storage policies of steel mills will affect market sentiment and speculative demand, causing short - term price fluctuations. The price of construction steel will be adjusted in the context of weakening terminal demand [7]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, but the low spot price deteriorates corporate profits. Some alumina plants in Guizhou may conduct pre - maintenance. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited. The spot market has strong sales, with active morning trading and cautious afternoon trading [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, and the demand shows signs of stabilization. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has rebounded slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and the demand for molten aluminum is still weak. The aluminum price is expected to consolidate in the short term [7].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On January 23, the three major A-share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 4136.16 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79% to 14439.66 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3349.50 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3118.4 billion yuan, an increase of 401.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted and consolidated on January 23, closing at 4702.50, a decrease of 21.21 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 23, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1724.1, an increase of 43.3 from the previous day [2]. - On January 23, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1163.3 yuan, an increase of 32.0 from the previous day [3]. - For coke, the spot market price at ports is stable. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, and the cost support is still strong. However, due to the off - season of terminal consumption, steel mills' shipments are weak, and their demand for coke is low [4]. - For coking coal, the price of some coals has changed. The supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream demand has some support, but the procurement enthusiasm of some enterprises has slowed down [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The 2025/26 global sugar production is expected to reach 189.3 million tons, a strong increase from 180.97 million tons in 2024/25. Affected by this, the US sugar fluctuated lower last Friday. Speculators continued to increase their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options [4]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term increase, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher on the night of January 22. As of January 23, the inventory and futures warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber have changed [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 23, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1067.5 cents per bushel, an increase of 0.33% from the previous day. Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the export volume is expected to be large. Domestically, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 closed at 2751 yuan/ton on January 23, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous day. The inventory decline provides some support for the price [5]. Live Pigs - On January 23, the main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%. The supply pressure is increasing in the short term, and the demand has some support, but the medium - term supply pressure is still large [5]. Palm Oil - On January 23, the palm oil futures price showed a profit - taking trend during the day but jumped up at night. The main contract P2605 closed above 9000 yuan for the first time since October last year. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will launch an official reference price for used cooking oil in Q1 2026 [5]. Shanghai Copper - On the night of January 22, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 102830 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 2.21%, hitting a recent high. The futures are stronger than the spot. The tight supply at the mine end, good macro - data, and a weak US dollar boost the price [5]. Iron Ore - On January 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.21%, closing at 795 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals have decreased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is in a volatile trend [5]. Asphalt - On January 23, the main contract of asphalt 2603 fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.68%, closing at 3236 yuan. The refinery supply is low, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is in a volatile trend [6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 771, with a low of 767, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776 on January 23, with a reduction of 3311 lots. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [6]. Cotton - On the night of January 22, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14590 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 28 lots. Textile enterprises are cautious in replenishing raw materials [6]. Steel - The central bank's loose monetary policy provides some support for industrial product prices. However, the steel market needs further implementation of industry - stabilizing policies to improve the supply - demand relationship. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for steel is expected to decline, and the inventory is accumulating [6]. Alumina - The supply of raw materials is increasing, and the price of bauxite is showing a slight weakening trend. The domestic alumina supply is still in excess, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand is stable [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of alumina is at a low level, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The aluminum price is affected by macro - expectations and remains high [6].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 22, 2026, the three major A - share indexes closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends on January 22, and the supply - demand relationships of different products also varied. For example, the supply and demand of coke and coking coal weakened marginally, while the domestic supply - demand of soybean meal was stable but the supply pressure was postponed [4][5]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.50%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3328.65, up 1.01%. The trading volume of the three markets reached 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day. The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 4723.71, up 0.64 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 22, the coke weighted index stopped falling and consolidated, closing at 1690.2, up 14.0; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range shock, closing at 1137.6 yuan, up 11.5. The coking capacity is loose, the coke production has decreased due to low profits of coke enterprises, and the real demand for coke has weakened. The domestic coal production of coking coal has increased marginally, the import supply is loose, and the real demand has declined [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the stabilization of US sugar on Wednesday and short - term technical factors, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on January 22. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association reported that in the second half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil was 2.171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%, and the sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.9%. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%, and the cumulative sugar production was 40.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [4]. Rubber - Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber rose slightly on January 22. At night, the reduction of the risk of a US - EU trade war also promoted its rise. In December 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. In 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3% [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 22, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1064 cents per bushel, up 0.09% from the previous trading day. Brazilian soybeans are entering the harvest season, and it is expected to dominate global soybean exports in the coming months. Domestically, on January 22, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan/ton, up 1.58%. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined continuously, the soybean meal output has decreased, and the pre - festival stocking demand has recovered, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 948,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 49,600 tons, reaching the lowest level in six months [5]. Live Pigs - On January 22, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. Recently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the supply pressure in the second half of the month has increased. The demand for large pigs in the south has weakened, but the cold wave has boosted pork consumption, and the pre - festival stocking has begun, but the medium - term supply pressure is still large [5]. Palm Oil - On January 22, the palm oil futures price continued to rise, with the daily K - line showing three consecutive positive days, and the price reached a new high since the beginning of the year. The main contract P2605 closed at 8944 yuan, up 1.27%. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 was 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease from the same period last month [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper CU2603 contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling and closing up on January 22, closing at 100,700 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 3.352 million tons. The macro - impact on copper prices was limited. The copper ore supply was tight in the long - term, but there was short - term inventory accumulation in China and weak downstream demand [5]. Iron Ore - On January 22, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed up slightly, with a closing price of 786.5 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil and the domestic arrivals have decreased, the port inventory has continued to increase, and the iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices in a volatile trend [5][6]. Asphalt - On January 22, the asphalt 2603 main contract rose in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 3242 yuan. The overall supply of asphalt refineries is stable, the terminal project construction has decreased due to cold weather, and the short - term asphalt price is in a volatile state [6]. Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 764 on January 22, with a closing price of 768.5, and the number of positions decreased by 870. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and future attention should be paid to spot - end factors [6]. Cotton - On the night of January 22, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,760 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 301 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the cotton basis price rose, higher than in previous years [6]. Steel - On January 22, rb2605 closed at 3124 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3287 yuan/ton. The steel market's pessimistic sentiment has weakened, but the overall situation of weak supply and demand is difficult to change, and the short - term steel price has stopped falling and may fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. Alumina - On January 22, ao2605 closed at 2717 yuan/ton. The raw material prices are expected to decline, the domestic alumina production capacity is high, the downstream demand is weak, and the spot market is inactive [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 22, al2603 closed at 24,055 yuan/ton. The market is concerned about Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum. The supply is normal, the social inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand shows some improvement [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 21, 2026 - A - share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.08% at 4116.94, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.70% at 14255.13, the ChiNext Index up 0.54% at 3295.52, and the STAR 50 Index up 3.53% at 1535.39. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2624 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4723.07, up 4.19 [2] 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - On January 21, the coke weighted - index oscillated weakly, closing at 1685.6, down 10.1; the coking coal weighted - index was weakly sorted, closing at 1135.4 yuan, down 20.8 [2][3] - For coke, coke enterprises'开工 declined, and the total coke inventory was at a low level in the same period; blast furnace 开工 and daily hot - metal output decreased. Mainstream coke enterprises planned to raise prices on January 19, and the negotiation was still ongoing. For coking coal, the supply - side production capacity recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and raw coal inventory accumulated. The steel and coke load on the demand side declined, hot - metal output decreased, coke enterprises' losses expanded, and steel mills' profits increased. The price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1305 yuan/ton on the futures market [4] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the weak performance of the commodity market, US sugar oscillated lower on Tuesday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to oscillate downward on Wednesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by technical factors, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. Brazil exported 1.4366 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first three weeks of January, an increase of 0.1197 million tons or 9.09% compared with the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 130,600 tons [4] 2.3 Rubber - Boosted by factors such as a large short - term decline and the rebound of crude oil, Shanghai rubber oscillated upward on Wednesday. At night, the futures price of Shanghai rubber fluctuated little and closed slightly higher. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, an increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [4] 2.4 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed with a positive K - line, with the highest price of 8850, the lowest price of 8752, and the closing price of 8832, up 0.96% from the previous day. From January 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [5] 2.5 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went low, and turned slightly positive at the end of the session, maintaining a high - level oscillation overall. The main continuous contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton, reached a low of 99,210 yuan/ton during the day, and closed at 101,280 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,420 yuan/ton, a position of 224,000, and a trading volume of 230,300 lots. On the supply side, the processing fee of copper concentrates continued to weaken, the profits of smelters were under pressure, 5 smelters planned to stop production in January, and the commissioning of a new plant was postponed, so the refined copper output was expected to decline month - on - month; the substitution of scrap copper increased, but raw material procurement was cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up before the Spring Festival was weak, the purchase of copper products was insufficient; the terminal sales of new - energy vehicles decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, dragging down the demand expectation; short - term inventory accumulated, and spot sales were sluggish. The short - term weakness of the US dollar provided slight support for copper prices, but the uncertainty of US tariff policies remained [5] 2.6 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,550 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. The cotton inventory decreased by 4 lots compared with the previous trading day. According to the report of China National Cotton Reserves Corporation, the cotton planting area in Brazil reached 40%, and the expected output was 10% less than last year [5] 2.7 Iron Ore - On January 21, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.32% and a closing price of 784 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume both decreased this period, the port inventory continued to accumulate, some steel mills in certain regions were still in the annual maintenance stage, the hot - metal output decreased, and it was in a situation of weak supply and demand. The iron ore price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [5] 2.8 Asphalt - On January 21, the main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.45% and a closing price of 3157 yuan. The asphalt output increased, the inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not large. As the weather cooled down, the market's rigid demand would become dull, and it would mostly turn into stocking demand. The asphalt price showed an oscillating operation in the short term [5] 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 753.5 on Wednesday, with the lowest price of 751.5, the highest price of 767, and closed at 764, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot side. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the spot - side price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [5][6] 2.10 Steel - On January 21, rb2605 was reported at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3286 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale cold snap and freezing weather, the trading volume in the steel market had been declining for several days. The enthusiasm for winter stocking this year had weakened. The psychological price for winter stocking of Shandong trading enterprises was 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton (ex - factory). In the situation of weak supply and demand in the steel market, steel prices were under pressure. With the improvement of the weather, the trading volume of low - price resources might increase in the future. Coupled with the front - loaded implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, the market had certain expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, and the decline space of steel prices might be limited. In the short term, the downward trend of steel prices was expected to stabilize [6][7] 2.11 Alumina - On January 21, ao2605 was reported at 2672 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina had increased for two consecutive weeks, and imported goods continued to flow in, so the domestic oversupply situation continued. Although there was a marginal increase in demand, it was difficult to digest the excess supply. At the same time, the spot price of alumina was in a downward channel, and the prices of caustic soda and ore on the cost side were also falling. The weakening cost support reduced enterprises' willingness to cut production. Before the Spring Festival, the supply side would maintain an oversupply pattern. In the spot market, holders accelerated the shipment to recover funds due to concerns about price drops, but downstream enterprises held a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, the inquiry atmosphere in the market was cold, and most only maintained rigid - demand replenishment. The overall trading activity was poor today, and the whole - day trading volume was limited [7] 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 21, al2603 was reported at 24,155 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the newly invested production capacity of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad continued to ramp up, and the daily output increased steadily. On the demand side, there was a structural differentiation. The primary alloy and aluminum plate and foil industries saw a slight increase in the utilization rate due to year - end stocking and the peak consumption season, providing some rigid demand. However, the high price suppression and seasonal off - season effects still existed, the proportion of electrolytic aluminum liquid continued to decline month - on - month, indicating that the overall recovery momentum of terminal consumption was insufficient, and the inventory pressure was further highlighted, with no obvious improvement overall. Although the domestic macro - policy support expectation provided downward support for aluminum prices, the fundamental situation of loose supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation formed a bearish combination. Coupled with the sentiment suppression brought by the risk of Sino - European and Sino - American trade frictions, the short - term upward resistance of aluminum prices was significant [7]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 20, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.01% to 4113.65 points, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.97% to 14155.63 points, and ChiNext Index declined 1.79% to 3277.98 points. The total trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.8044 trillion yuan, up 72 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 Index adjusted downward, closing at 4718.88, down 15.58 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke weighted index trended weaker, closing at 1675.7, down 60.9. Coking coal weighted index also showed weakness, closing at 1130.5 yuan, down 52.5. Coke's first - round price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with general coking profits and a slight decline in daily production. Coking coal production has increased significantly, and terminal inventory has risen substantially [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil - Related (not mentioned directly but related products)**: - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated downward, with a decline of 0.03%, closing at 3139 yuan. Asphalt production increased, inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not significant. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: Affected by the continued decline in spot prices, the price of Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on Tuesday and continued to decline at night. Indian sugar consumption is expected to be around 28.5 million tons or slightly lower [4]. - **Rubber**: Due to favorable weather in Thailand and Indonesia and a significant increase in imports in December 2025, the price of Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday. It rebounded slightly at night. China's rubber tire exports and natural and synthetic rubber imports increased year - on - year in 2025 [4]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures closed lower on January 20, with the main contract closing at 1053 cents per bushel, down 0.31%. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 rose 0.33% to 2736 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal inventory reached a six - month low, but it may recover due to sufficient soybean supply [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures price rose slightly within the range on January 20. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, up 1.16% from the previous day. Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14620 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory decreased by 11 lots. India's minimum support price for cotton increased by about 8% this year [5]. - **Pig**: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11550 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm of farmers may accelerate, and the supply of pigs is still high, while the demand for large pigs in the south is weakening [5]. 2.3 Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, closing at 101230, up slightly. The weakening US dollar index provided some support, but the market was cautious due to the approaching Spring Festival. There are expectations of production cuts in the smelting industry, and downstream demand is in the off - season [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated downward, with a decline of 1%, closing at 789.5 yuan. Both the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Steel**: On January 20, rb2605 closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to snow and ice on the roads, construction at downstream sites was restricted, and transportation was blocked, leading to weakening terminal demand. Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2671 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina production continued to increase, while demand was weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The price is under pressure [7]. - **Aluminum**: The al2603 contract closed at 23950 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while demand shows structural differentiation. The price is likely to remain high and fluctuate [7]. 2.4 Others - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 fell for two consecutive days. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 19, 2026, the A-share market showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.70%. The trading volume of the three major markets decreased significantly. Different futures varieties also showed different trends affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 19, the A-share three major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to close at 4114.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to close at 14294.05 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.70% to close at 3337.61 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2732.5 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 324.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4734.46, a环比 increase of 2.58 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 19, the coke weighted index was narrowly sorted, closing at 1722.8, a环比 decrease of 17.8; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within the range, closing at 1180.2 yuan, a环比 decrease of 8.5. The comprehensive absolute price index of coke was 1381.7 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the ex-warehouse price of first-class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily consumption of coke decreased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased, and the daily molten iron output decreased. The port inventory of coke increased, the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased. The domestic coking coal spot price index increased, the price of Luliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of Ganqimaodu raw coal increased. The daily output of clean coal from 523 sample mines and 110 sample coal washing plants increased, while the daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises decreased. The inventory of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased, the port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased [2][3][4][5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the significant increase in imports in December 2025 and the downward adjustment of spot quotes, the short side suppressed the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract, which fluctuated slightly lower on January 19. The short side continued to suppress the contract at night, causing it to fluctuate lower. China's sugar imports in December were 580,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.9%, and the cumulative imports from January to December were 4.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [5] Rubber - The latest tariff threat issued by the United States to Europe over the Greenland issue made investors uneasy. Long positions were closed, causing the Shanghai Rubber to fluctuate lower on January 19 and continue to decline at night. In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the United States was 240.001 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Among them, the imports of passenger car tires increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 145.42 million, the imports of truck and bus tires increased by 6% year-on-year to 51.73 million, the imports of aircraft tires decreased by 8% year-on-year to 227,000, the imports of motorcycle tires increased by 15% year-on-year to 3.25 million, and the imports of bicycle tires decreased by 3% year-on-year to 5.41 million [5][7] Palm Oil - On January 19, the palm oil market showed slight fluctuations. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative doji. The highest price was 8684, the lowest price was 8606, and the closing price was 8648, a 0.30% decrease from the previous day. As of January 16, 2026 (week 3), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 746,100 tons, a 1.01 million-ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 1.37%; a 264,300-ton increase from 481,800 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 54.86% [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on January 19, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1056.25 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase from the previous trading day. Brazil began to harvest a record soybean crop, and as of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in the 2025/26 season was 2%, higher than the same period last year. Brazil exported 1.3073 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, higher than the export volume in January last year. It is expected that Brazilian soybeans will dominate the global soybean export business in the next few months, and the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans will continue to limit the increase in soybean prices. In the domestic market, on January 19, the soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. China's soybean imports in 2025 exceeded 110 million tons for the first time, and the high transaction rate of imported soybean auctions supplemented the market supply. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter is expected to be loose. Currently, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level in the same period of the year, and the abundant soybean supply and high inventory pattern continue to restrict the upward space of soybean meal prices. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America and the arrival volume of soybeans in the future [7] Live Pigs - On January 19, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11,705 yuan/ton, a 2.3% decrease. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the annual slaughter volume in 2025 was 719.73 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; the year-end live pig inventory was 429.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; the annual pork output was 59.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The data shows that the supply of live pigs remains at a high level, and the output reduction is relatively slow. Both live pigs and pork are in a situation of loose supply. On the demand side, the southern cured meat production is coming to an end, and the demand for large pigs has weakened. However, with the Spring Festival approaching in about a month, the market has gradually started stocking for the Spring Festival. In addition, the large-scale snow and rain weather across the country may lead to a short-term shortage of live pig sources in some areas. It is recommended to focus on the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large-scale pig enterprises, and the actual fulfillment of peak-season demand in the future [7] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper closed down, showing a wide range of fluctuations during the day and a weak close. The core drivers were inventory accumulation, weak demand, and the cooling of tariff expectations. The opening price was 101,030, the highest price was 101,860, the lowest price was 99,620, and the closing price was 101,180; the settlement price was 100,650. The trading volume was 240,300 lots, and the open interest was 217,400 lots. In terms of inventory, the Shanghai Copper inventory was 338,000 tons. The arrival of domestic goods increased, and downstream procurement was sluggish. Inventory accumulation suppressed short-term prices. In terms of demand, high prices inhibited procurement, the price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and the demand support from the processing end was insufficient. On the supply side, five smelters were under maintenance in January, and the refined copper output may decline; there were still concerns about overseas copper mines. In terms of policy sentiment, the United States postponed the imposition of tariffs, cooling the market sentiment and suppressing short-term speculative demand [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 14,465 yuan/ton on the night of January 19. The cotton inventory decreased by 8 lots compared with the previous trading day. The operating rate of downstream spinning mills was relatively high, but the profit was not high [8] Iron Ore - On January 19, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 2.58%, and the closing price was 794 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased环比, the arrival volume continued to increase, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, some steel mills in certain regions are still in the annual maintenance stage, and the molten iron output has decreased. The short-term iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend [8] Asphalt - On January 19, the main contract of asphalt 2603 fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.29%, and the closing price was 3142 yuan. The asphalt output increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not large. As the weather cools down, the market's rigid demand will become dull, and it will mostly turn into stocking demand. The short-term asphalt price shows a fluctuating trend [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 780 on January 19, with the lowest price of 763, the highest price of 780, and the closing price of 763. The daily increase in positions was 1621 lots. The price fell on heavy volume today, and attention should be paid to the support from the spot end. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan per cubic meter, a 10-yuan increase per cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship. In the future, attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro expectations and market sentiment on the price [8][9] Steel - On January 19, rb2605 closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The China Meteorological Administration upgraded and launched a level-three emergency response for cold snaps, freezing, and blizzards. With the arrival of the cold snap, outdoor construction has been affected, and the demand for steel this week may weaken. At the same time, steel mills may increase the intensity of maintenance and production reduction, and the replenishment demand will weaken, suppressing the prices of raw fuels. In the short term, the steel market has weak supply and demand, and the cost support is unstable. Steel prices may fluctuate weakly [9] Alumina - On January 19, ao2605 closed at 2733 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, and the operating capacity remains high, with continuous high production and unabated supply pressure. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weak in the off-season. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is piling up, with high loading, unloading, and storage capacity pressures, and low picking-up efficiency. Some goods are stranded at the platform. At the same time, the delivery warehouses in various places are fully booked and goods are arriving one after another, and the in-transit and platform inventories are increasing. The social inventory of alumina and the raw material inventory of aluminum plants continue to accumulate. In the spot market, the inventory pressure of holders has increased, and their willingness to sell has increased. Goods have flowed into the market, but downstream buyers only maintain rigid demand procurement and have a strong fear of falling prices, resulting in poor overall transactions. Alumina is under upward pressure [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 19, al2603 closed at 24,090 yuan/ton. From a macro perspective, China's GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, reflecting the strong resilience and momentum of the economic operation. In terms of capital, the situation in the Middle East has eased, and the United States has postponed the imposition of tariffs on key mineral sectors, but attention should be paid to the trade game between Europe and the United States over the Greenland issue. The sentiment continues to cool down, and the aluminum price continues to retreat. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is normal, and the social inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a high level compared with the same period last year. The demand side still faces pressure, and the aluminum price continues to retreat. Downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases, and the situation of traders taking delivery has improved. Large-scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain level of demand, while small and medium-sized plants have shrinking orders, and some plan to reduce or stop production before the Spring Festival [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 16, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.26%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3361.02, down 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3056.8 billion yuan, an increase of 118 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4731.87, down 19.56 [2] 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 Index showed a weakening trend on January 16, closing at 4731.87, a decrease of 19.56 from the previous day [2] 2.2 Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted index of coke futures closed at 1718.8, down 26.2. Rising raw coal prices have increased the production costs of coke enterprises, leading to a contraction in industry profits. Some regions have implemented environmental protection restrictions, slowing down the start - up of coke enterprises. The downstream demand for coke is weak due to high inventory and limited profits in the steel industry [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal futures closed at 1176.0 yuan, down 16.6. The price of Shanxi main coking coal is 1352 (+24) yuan/ton. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 65 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week [3][4] 2.3 Sugar Futures - The number of sugar ships waiting to be loaded at Brazilian ports has increased, and the market is boosted by the expectation of a short - term recovery in demand. The Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2605 showed a slight decline in the night session on January 16 [4] 2.4 Rubber Futures - Due to long - position liquidation, the Shanghai rubber futures showed a downward trend in the night session on January 16. As of December 16, the inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1900 tons to 122850 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3900 tons to 108390 tons [5] 2.5 Palm Oil Futures - On January 16, the palm oil futures market rebounded. The main contract P2605 closed at 8674, up 1.12%. From January 1 - 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 18.24% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 17.53 - 18.64% [5] 2.6 Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1056.25 cents per bushel on January 16, up 0.36%. The USDA January supply - demand report showed a pattern of loose supply and declining exports. Domestically, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The supply in the first quarter will remain loose [5] 2.7 Live Pig Futures - On January 16, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 11950 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The current supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term due to low slaughter enthusiasm, but there is still supply pressure in the future. The demand for live pigs is weakening in the south and showing some recovery in the north, but the overall peak - season consumption effect is weakening [5] 2.8 Copper Futures - The main Shanghai copper futures contract continued to adjust in the night session on January 16, closing at 100280 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The strengthening of the US dollar index, weak domestic demand, and a decline in market sentiment are the main driving factors [5] 2.9 Other Futures - Cotton: The main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14538 yuan/ton on January 16. The inventory increased by 337 lots from the previous day. Downstream yarn mills purchase as needed [6] - Logs: The main log futures contract 2603 closed at 778.5 on January 16. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [6] - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract 2605 closed down 0.49% at 812 yuan on January 16. The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [6] - Asphalt: The main asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 1.48% at 3130 yuan on January 16. The production has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure is not large, and the demand is stable [6] - Steel: The winter storage mentality of the steel market is cautious. Most of the winter storage policies announced so far are post - settlement, and the willingness of traders to store is low [6] - Alumina: The raw material bauxite price has declined, and the domestic port inventory has increased slightly. The domestic alumina supply is still relatively high, and the demand is stable [6] - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is generally stable, and the demand is cautious due to the influence of the off - season and high prices [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On January 15, 2026, A-share market had mixed performance: Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.33% to 4112.60 points; Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14306.73 points; ChiNext Index rose 0.56% to 3367.91 points. The trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was close to 3 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of over 1 trillion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index had a narrow - range fluctuation on January 15, closing at 4751.43, up 9.5 points [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke weighted index on January 15 had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1746.4, down 1.9 points. Coking coal weighted index trended weaker, closing at 1191.6 yuan, down 11.6 points [2][3]. - Coke's transaction price rose sporadically, with average coking profit and slightly increased daily production. Coke inventory remained almost unchanged. Coking coal: Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1586 vehicles. Coking coal mine output decreased slightly, and the mine resumption after New Year's Day was good. The overall carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, but the demand for raw materials was at a low - season level [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Wednesday and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng Sugar 2605 contract on January 15 oscillated downward. At night, it had a narrow - range fluctuation and closed slightly lower [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Affected by the high import volume in December 2025 and the decline of oil prices, Shanghai rubber futures on January 15 oscillated downward. In 2025, China imported 852.5 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 16.7% increase from 2024 [4]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 15, CBOT soybean futures closed up. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.7612 billion tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous year. Domestically, on January 15, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2740 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. High inventory restricts the price increase space [5]. 2.5 Live Hogs - On January 15, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11950 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Current market supply is tight, but there is still supply pressure before the Spring Festival. Consumption demand lacks holiday support [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On January 15, palm oil futures prices dropped significantly due to the news of Indonesia canceling B50 biodiesel in 2026. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - On January 15, Shanghai copper futures had a lower closing price. The market is affected by factors such as the cancellation of key mineral tariffs in the US, a stronger US dollar, and weak domestic demand. Supply may decrease, but inventory has increased significantly [5]. 2.8 Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14720 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased, and downstream mills purchase on a need - to - use basis [5]. 2.9 Logs - On January 15, the main log 2603 contract closed at 780.5. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter. Follow - up attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [6]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On January 15, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated downward, down 1.03% to 813 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, while port inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11 Asphalt - On January 15, the main asphalt 2603 contract closed down slightly, down 0.06% to 3167 yuan. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is oscillating [6]. 2.12 Steel - On January 15, rb2605 closed at 3160 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The steel market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and steel prices may oscillate weakly [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On January 15, ao2605 closed at 2789 yuan/ton. Some domestic alumina plants are under maintenance, but production capacity is still high, and supply pressure persists. The market has a short - term inventory accumulation trend [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 15, al2603 closed at 24375 yuan/ton. Demand is seasonally weak, but low raw material inventory of downstream manufacturers may trigger restocking demand. However, inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand may lead to a price decline [6]. 3. Other Information - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 14, 2026 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31% to 4126.09, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 14248.60, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82% to 3349.14. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 39872 billion yuan, an increase of 2881 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Futures Indexes**: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4741.93, down 19.1 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the weighted coke index closed at 1740.1, down 22.2, and the weighted coking coal index closed at 1200.2 yuan, down 17.4 [2][3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Coke factories' inventory decreased by 6.04%. The resumption of iron - making production has stabilized coal and coke demand. However, there is a contradiction between market sentiment boosted by "industrial control" information and the inability of short - term fundamental data to meet expectations. For coking coal, supply and demand both increased, and the mine clean coal inventory increased by 0.57%. Iron water production rose by 0.91 million tons [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - **Price Movements**: Affected by the decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of December, the US sugar market stabilized on Tuesday. The Zheng Sugar 2605 contract rose on Wednesday but slightly declined at night due to long - position liquidation [4]. - **Production Data**: In the first half of December, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 28.8% year - on - year to 254,240 tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 32.8% year - on - year to 5.92 million tons. Since the start of the crushing season, the cumulative crushing volume was 598.19 million tons, a 2.36% year - on - year decrease [4]. 2.3 Rubber - **Price Movements**: Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber rose on Wednesday but closed lower at night with narrow - range fluctuations [4]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: In November 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 20,891 tons, a 29.6% decrease from October, and the total inventory decreased by 17.3% to 120,208 tons [4]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - **International Market**: On January 14, the CBOT soybean market closed up. The US Department of Agriculture overestimated US soybean production but lowered export prospects and raised Brazil's soybean harvest forecast. China's continuous demand supported US soybeans. Brazil's soybean export volume in January is expected to reach 3.73 million tons [6]. - **Domestic Market**: On January 14, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2751 yuan/ton, a 0.36% decline. High inventory restricts price increases. Future focus should be on South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 12010 yuan/ton, a 1.82% increase [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the first half of January, the supply of medium - and large - sized pigs decreased slightly. However, there is still a possibility of early slaughter before the Spring Festival. Seasonal consumption is ongoing, but there is a short - term "gap" in consumption. Pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig farms, and the demand during the pickling season [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the palm oil futures price fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, a 0.34% decrease [6]. - **Policy Information**: Indonesia will raise the palm oil export special tax to 12.5% on March 1. The future implementation of the B50 blending policy depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - **Price Movements**: On January 14, Shanghai copper opened at 103780 yuan/ton, closed at 104120 yuan/ton, a 0.85% increase. Trading volume and open interest increased, indicating significant capital inflow [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slowdown of US core inflation and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the market, as well as China's policy of stabilizing growth, boosted market sentiment. Supply was restricted due to smelter maintenance, and demand from the new energy sector and pre - holiday stocking supported prices [6]. 2.8 Logs - **Price Movements**: The main log contract 2603 closed at 779.5 on January 14, with a daily reduction of 108 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7]. - **Market Outlook**: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. 2.9 Iron Ore - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main iron ore contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 821 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments declined, port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' replenishment demand increased [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.10 Asphalt - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main asphalt contract 2603 closed up 1.38% at 3168 yuan. Supply remained low, inventory increased, and downstream demand decreased significantly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supported by crude oil costs, the short - term asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.11 Cotton - **Price Movements**: On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14780 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 426 lots compared to the previous trading day. Downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. 2.12 Steel - **Price Movements**: On January 14, rb2605 closed at 3162 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3306 yuan/ton. High production costs supported steel prices, but weak downstream demand restricted price increases [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. 2.13 Alumina - **Price Movements**: On January 14, ao2605 closed at 2800 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remained high, and the market supply was in surplus, putting pressure on price increases [7]. - **Market Conditions**: Ore trading was light, and downstream profit margins were compressed, leading to a wait - and - see attitude. Spot prices continued to fall, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - **Price Movements**: On January 14, al2603 closed at 24595 yuan/ton. The market followed the trend of precious metals. Supply was normal, and social inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - **Market Conditions**: Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the demand in some fields was under pressure [7].

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On January 13, 2026, the A-share market experienced a collective correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending its 17-day winning streak. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached a record high of 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and international policies. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On January 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% to 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.96% to 3321.89 points. The trading volume of the three markets reached 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on January 13, closing at 4761.03, a decrease of 28.88 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated weakly, closing at 1746.7, a decrease of 18.8 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 1193.9 yuan, a decrease of 30.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the supply side shows continuous recovery in coke - making enterprise operations, and the total coke inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The demand side shows an increase in blast furnace operations and daily hot metal production. Some coke - making enterprises in Inner Mongolia proposed a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. For coking coal, mine production capacity is recovering, Mongolian coal imports are relatively sufficient, and clean coal inventory is accumulating. However, coke - making enterprise profits are in greater deficit [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on January 13. As of January 12, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 21.18% compared to the same period last year. The Thai Sugar Board expects the country's sugar production to reach 10.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season and may reduce to 10 million tons in the next year. The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 4.7 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to improved weather in Southeast Asian producing areas, increased raw material supply, and reduced spot quotes, Shanghai rubber fluctuated downward on January 13. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail sales in 2025 were 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on January 13, CBOT soybeans were weak. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report confirmed the loose supply - demand pattern of the US soybean market, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to 178 million tons. In the domestic market, on January 13, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04%. The current soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level, and the resumption of the auction of imported reserve soybeans further enriches the domestic soybean supply [6]. Live Hogs - On January 13, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11795 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%. The supply of medium - and large - sized hogs has slightly decreased in the first half of this month, but there is still a possibility of early slaughter by pig enterprises before the Spring Festival. The seasonal consumption such as pickled pork and sausage is ongoing, but the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited [6]. Palm Oil - On January 13, the palm oil market continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed at 8778, an increase of 0.62% from the previous day. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects the 2026 palm oil inventory to be 2 million tons (compared to 3.05 million tons in 2025), the price to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton, and the production to be between 19.5 - 19.8 million tons (compared to 20.28 million tons in 2025) [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened at 104500 yuan/ton, reached a high of 104990 yuan/ton, a low of 101970 yuan/ton, and closed at 102480 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate hikes, the off - season of domestic demand, the reduction of refined copper production, and the weak terminal consumption [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of January 13, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14745 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 642 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. Iron Ore - On January 13, the main iron ore 2605 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 819.5 yuan. The supply and demand structure has improved, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On January 13, the main asphalt 2603 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.66% and a closing price of 3140 yuan. The supply is at a low level, the inventory is accumulating, the demand has decreased significantly, and the short - term price is in a volatile state under the support of crude oil costs [7]. Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 772, reached a low of 772, a high of 775.5, and closed at 774.5 on January 13, with a reduction of 254 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [7][8]. Steel - On January 13, rb2605 closed at 3158 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rising cost of coking coal supports steel prices, but downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, and the short - term steel price increase may slow down and enter a volatile state [8]. Alumina - On January 13, ao2605 closed at 2780 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remains high, the supply is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The consumption side shows weak ore transactions and a general trading atmosphere [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 13, al2603 closed at 24375 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is relatively positive for the non - ferrous market. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products may stimulate short - term demand. The supply is normal, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is shrinking [8][9].