Report Overview - The report provides daily analysis and insights on various commodities and financial markets, including overseas and domestic macroeconomics, stock indices, and futures contracts for commodities such as coal, sugar, rubber, and agricultural products. 1. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - Early in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined, but the August 1st non - farm payrolls data raised concerns about US employment and economic downturn. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues [1]. Domestic Macro - In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [1]. 2. Asset Views Domestic Assets - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [1]. Overseas Assets - Concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising. The long - term weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and be vigilant against volatility spikes [1]. 3. Stock Index Analysis A - share Market - On August 6th, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new closing high for the year, with a 0.45% increase to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.66% to 2358.95 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1734.1 billion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. CSI 300 Index - On August 6th, the CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4113.48, a环比 increase of 10.04 [2]. 4. Commodity Futures Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - On August 6th, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1696.6, a环比 increase of 46.7. The coking coal weighted index maintained an upward - trending oscillation, closing at 1194.6 yuan, a环比 increase of 79.7. Some mines in Linfen have been shut down for rectification, and the supply of coking coal is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. The fifth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the profitability of coke enterprises has improved [2][3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - International oil price decline and concerns about global demand weakness have pressured the US sugar market. Affected by the decline of US sugar and spot price adjustments, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined slightly on August 6th. As of July 31st, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales reached 1.9514 million tons, with a sales rate of 80.68% [5]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and adjusted on August 6th. From January to June 2025, Hainan's natural rubber output was 91,900 tons, a 6.0% decrease compared to 2024 [6]. Soybean Meal - On August 6th, the international CBOT soybean futures closed down. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is expected to expand, which will make the global soybean supply more abundant. The domestic soybean meal futures price showed a trend of rising and then falling. The domestic supply is sufficient, but there are concerns about future supply shortages, so the soybean meal may oscillate widely [7]. Live Pigs - On August 6th, live pig futures closed up. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the mid - term production capacity is still being released. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and reduced school procurement. The overall live pig market is in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Palm Oil - On August 6th, palm oil futures failed to continue the previous day's strength. From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% compared to the same period last month [8]. Shanghai Copper - Globally, LME copper inventories are high, while SHFE inventories are low. US copper inventory may flow back, which may suppress prices. Technically, Shanghai copper is in a state of oscillation [10]. Cotton - On the night of August 6th, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,660 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 90 lots compared to the previous day, and the cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with the expected harvest time one week earlier than usual [10]. Logs - On August 6th, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 829, with a low of 826, a high of 836, and a close of 832.5, with a reduction of 370 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in external quotes has driven up the domestic futures price [10][11]. Steel - On August 6th, the rb2510 contract closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3,451 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in coking coal futures has driven up steel prices. In the short term, steel prices may be strong, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [11]. Alumina - On August 6th, the ao2509 contract closed at 3,241 yuan/ton. The sentiment of "anti - involution" has cooled down. The supply of alumina has increased, and the market may maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 6th, the al2509 contract closed at 20,650 yuan/ton. The macro environment is relatively cold, and the supply of aluminum is increasing slightly while the demand is shrinking. The aluminum price may oscillate within a range [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures varieties on August 5, 2025, including their price movements, influencing factors, and market trends. Different futures have different price trends and influencing factors, and the market shows a complex and diverse situation. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On August 5, A-share major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3,600 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96% to 3,617.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59% to 11,106.96 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39% to 2,343.38 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5961 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on August 5, closing at 4,103.45, a rise of 32.75 from the previous day [2]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On August 5, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1,674.9, a rise of 61.0 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal maintained a wide - range fluctuation, closing at 1,146.6 yuan, a rise of 77.7 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the 5 - round spot price increase has been fully implemented, the coking profit has been repaired, and the coking start - up rate is expected to increase. The downstream steel mills maintain a high level of hot metal, and the coke spot resources are relatively tight. There are still plans to increase the price in August. For coking coal, there are new停产 mines this week, some coal types are in short supply, and the mine restart speed is slow. The average daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the port this week is more than 1,000 vehicles, and the import profit of sea - borne coal has narrowed, but most coal types are still cost - effective [5]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by the news that Pakistan TCP company tendered to purchase 100,000 tons of refined sugar and the possible rise in sugar prices due to the decline in European production and sales, the US sugar fluctuated slightly higher on Monday. Supported by the US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract closed slightly higher on Tuesday, but fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure [5]. - As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 5.4961 million tons, an increase of 396,600 tons year - on - year; the sales rate was 85.01%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a decrease of 113,000 tons year - on - year. In July, the single - month sugar sales were 355,500 tons, a decrease of 217,800 tons year - on - year [5]. **Rubber** - Due to the increase in rainfall in the Thai production area, the spot price quotes in Southeast Asia stopped falling and rose. Supported by concerns about the Thai weather, the Shanghai Rubber fluctuated higher on Tuesday and closed slightly higher after a slight adjustment at night due to technical factors. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first half of the year were 2.257 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [6]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on August 5, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans was higher than expected, but the market was worried about the demand of consumer countries. Domestically, on August 5, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated, and the main M2509 contract closed at 3,023 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%. The import of soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill's crushing volume remains high, the terminal feed and breeding industry purchases as needed, the提货 demand is less than the production, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the low - level procurement volume of soybeans in the fourth quarter in China has led to concerns about supply shortages, and the soybean meal may fluctuate widely [6][8]. **Live Pigs** - On August 5, the live pig futures price fluctuated, and the main LH2511 contract closed at 13,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. The supply side has a stable slaughter rhythm, and the short - term market supply is sufficient. In the medium term, the pig production capacity is still in the release stage. The demand side is affected by high - temperature weather, and the pork consumption demand is weak. The overall live pig market shows a situation of loose supply and demand [8]. **Palm Oil** - On August 5, the palm oil price rebounded strongly after testing the support level the previous day, and the main contract closed with a large positive line, rising 2.56% to 9,064 yuan. India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while the soybean oil imports increased by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons. The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from July 1 - 31 were 896,362 tons, a decrease of 25.01% compared with the previous month [9]. **Shanghai Copper** - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, increasing market concerns about the US economic recession and boosting the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Historically, the probability of the Shanghai Copper price rising in August and September is relatively high, and the current period has a tendency to strengthen according to the cycle law. Fundamentally, the LME and COMEX copper inventories are high, but the SHFE inventory is low, the domestic spot is relatively tight, and the downstream is actively purchasing at low prices. However, the reverse flow of the copper inventory hoarded in the US may suppress the price [10]. **Iron Ore** - On August 5, the main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.2% and a closing price of 798.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased this period, the arrival increased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the hot metal production decreased but remained at a relatively high level of 2.4 million tons. The short - term demand has strong resilience, and the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. **Asphalt** - On August 5, the main 2509 contract of asphalt fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.58% and a closing price of 3,544 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased last week, the shipment volume also increased, the demand recovery is slow but there is still a repair expectation, and the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price fluctuates [10]. **Cotton** - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13,675 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. The lowest basis price quote at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market on August 6 was 400 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 121 lots compared with the previous day [11]. **Log** - On August 5, the 2509 log contract opened at 841.5, with a minimum of 825.5, a maximum of 841.5, and closed at 829, with a decrease of 1,531 lots in positions. The external price quote increased, driving the domestic futures price up. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [13]. **Steel** - On August 5, the rb2510 contract closed at 3,233 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3,457 yuan/ton. The current coal mine inventory is generally low, the coking coal market is stable, and the fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented. However, the steel mills' purchasing sentiment has become cautious, and it is difficult for the coke price to continue to rise. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the steel demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure may increase. In the short term, the steel price may adjust widely [13]. **Alumina** - On August 5, the ao2509 contract closed at 3,227 yuan/ton. The weak consumption in the off - season continues, the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is slow, the procurement demand for alumina raw materials is light, and the high price of alumina itself restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. In the short term, the supply - demand support for alumina will gradually weaken, and the futures price center may face adjustment pressure [13]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - On August 5, the al2509 contract closed at 20,560 yuan/ton. The downstream is still in the off - season, the spot is purchased as needed, and the spot premium is weak. In the short term, the inventory is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. Whether the price can break through depends on the inventory trend and consumption recovery signal during the off - peak to peak season transition in August [14].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a collective upward trend on August 4, 2025, with varying degrees of increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, and the trading volume decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - Different futures varieties presented different market conditions. For example, some futures prices fluctuated with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [4][7][8]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 4, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to 3583.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to 11041.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 2334.32 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 14986 billion yuan, a decrease of 998 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 index showed a strong - trending shock, closing at 4070.70, a rise of 15.77 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 4, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, with a closing price of 1646.4, a rise of 9.2. The coking coal weighted index showed a weak shock, with a closing price of 1101.0 yuan, a rise of 19.9 [2][3]. - Coke: The cost increased due to rising coal prices, the profitability of coke enterprises was average, the weekly - on - weekly start - up rate declined slightly, and the supply was relatively stable. The demand side had a small decline in iron - water production, but the absolute level was high. The inventory was depleted under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price fluctuated with raw material prices and market sentiment [4]. - Coking coal: The supply recovery was slow due to safety inspections and production restrictions in some mines. The import volume of Mongolian coal reached a high level this year, and the trading sentiment in the spot market declined. The demand side also showed a weak situation with a decline in the start - up rate of coke enterprises and iron - water production [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening of the US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on Friday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract showed a shock - adjustment trend on Monday and a slight increase at night due to technical factors and capital effects [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline and technical support, as well as bargain - hunting buying, the Shanghai rubber futures rebounded slightly on Monday and continued to rise slightly at night. The total inventory at Qingdao Port decreased last week, with a decrease in both bonded and general trade warehouses [5]. Palm Oil - On August 4, palm oil fluctuated widely. The main contract P2509 closed with a long - lower - shadow阴线. The expected inventory, production, and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July 2025 all increased compared to June [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures rose on August 4. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased, and the expected soybean production in Brazil increased. Domestically, the soybean meal futures rose slightly on August 4. The inventory continued to accumulate due to sufficient imported soybeans and high oil - mill crushing volume, but the concern about the future supply gap supported the futures price [7]. Live Pigs - On August 4, live pigs continued the weak trend. The supply was sufficient, and the secondary - fattening enthusiasm declined. The demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost increased due to rising feed prices, and the market was in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed a range - bound shock. The poor US non - farm payroll data increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts, which was theoretically beneficial to copper prices, but tariff policy uncertainty might suppress long - term demand. The global copper inventory was rising, and the demand was weak, but the mining suspension of a Chilean mine and the expected supply - tightening policy supported the copper price [8]. Iron Ore - On August 4, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose with a shock. The global shipment increased last week, the arrival volume decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the iron - water production declined, but the short - term price was in a shock trend [9]. Asphalt - On August 4, the asphalt 2509 main contract declined with a shock. The production capacity utilization rate increased last week, and the demand was expected to recover. The low inventory supported the price, and the short - term price fluctuated [9]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton at night on Monday. The cotton inventory decreased by 123 lots compared to the previous trading day [9][10]. Logs - The log 2509 contract rose unilaterally on August 4. The external quotation increase drove the internal futures price up. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [10]. Steel - On August 4, the rb2510 closed at 3204 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3417 yuan/ton. The profit game between the upstream and downstream of the black chain intensified, and the trading logic switched to the dual - drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, with the support of real - estate policies and the steel industry's stable - growth plan [10]. Alumina - On August 4, the ao2509 closed at 3225 yuan/ton. The alumina market was in a game between potential policy benefits and over - supply expectations, with a decline in market sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 4, the al2509 closed at 20525 yuan/ton. Overseas macro - pressure led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the stable supply - demand fundamentals and low inventory supported the prices, showing a relatively strong performance [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a minor correction on August 1, 2025, with reduced trading volume. Futures prices of various commodities showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1][2]. - The markets of different commodities are in various situations. For example, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the demand for some commodities is affected by the season and policies. Future trends depend on factors like policy implementation, weather conditions, and market sentiment [4][6]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 1, the three major A-share indexes declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.24% to 2322.63 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1598.4 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 337.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 1, the coke weighted index was weakly volatile, closing at 1603.8, down 57.2. The coking coal weighted index also remained weak, closing at 1055.2 yuan, down 86.3 [2][3]. - Coke is in the fifth round of price increase with thin profits, and its daily production has slightly increased. The overall inventory continues to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is good. For coking coal, the total inventory has increased, but the production - end inventory has decreased significantly and is likely to continue to decline in the short term [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on August 1. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract had a slight decline at night on August 1. In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil increased by 15.07% year - on - year, reaching 3.406 million tons. India's net sugar production in 2025 - 26 is expected to increase to 30 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline at night on August 1. As of August 1, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2388 tons to 208426 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4390 tons to 177630 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 2319 tons to 43849 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2318 tons to 39716 tons [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, and the growing conditions are good. If the weather continues to cooperate, the expected increase in US soybean production will impact the global soybean supply - demand pattern. Brazil's soybean production in 2025/2026 is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, an increase of 9.4 million tons year - on - year. Domestically, on August 1, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated, and the main M2509 contract closed at 3010 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [5]. Live Pigs - On August 1, the live pig futures price continued to be weak, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14055 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The supply is stable, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost of feed has increased, reducing the expected profit of pig farming [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper price still has a slight downward pressure. The short - term support from the "anti - involution" has weakened, and the price will fluctuate more due to major macro - events next week. After the US tariff is implemented, the non - US supply will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate between 76,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton [7]. Cotton - On the night of August 1, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13565 yuan/ton. On August 4, the base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 400 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 133 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Iron Ore - On August 1, the main 2509 contract of iron ore closed down 0.19% at 783 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The iron water production declined, but it remained at a relatively high level. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On August 1, the main 2509 contract of asphalt closed down 0.19% at 3658 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, and the shipment volume increased. Although the rainfall still affects the demand, there is an expectation of demand recovery. The low inventory supports the price, and the short - term price will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On August 1, the log futures market showed high - level pressure. The 2509 contract opened at 822, with a low of 813, a high of 825, and closed at 821.5, with a reduction of 2321 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak [8]. Steel - After the adjustment of the Politburo meeting's statement on "anti - involution", the market's expectation of overall low - price rectification and capacity reduction has cooled. However, the "anti - involution" and "stable growth" expectations still exist, and the steel demand in the off - season is okay. The short - term steel price will follow the market sentiment and fluctuate weakly [10]. Alumina - The raw material supply of alumina may be affected by events in Guinea and the rainy season, and the price is firm. Under the policy of capacity governance, the operating capacity and production growth rate of alumina may slow down. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the upper limit. The production growth rate may slow down, but it will still maintain a high - level operation. The demand is weak due to the off - season and high prices, and the inventory is slightly increasing [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index decreased by 449 yuan/ton to 71025 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 650 yuan/ton. The market trading activity has improved, but the future of mines in Jiangxi is uncertain [11][12].

Report Overview - The report provides market analysis and price trends for various futures products on July 31, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coal, sugar, rubber, etc. [1] Stock Index Futures - On July 31, A-share market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% to 3573.21, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.73% to 11009.77, and the ChiNext Index down 1.66% to 2328.31. The trading volume reached 1936 billion yuan, an increase of 91.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index also adjusted, closing at 4075.59, down 75.65. [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke weighted index was weak on July 31, closing at 1625.7, down 84.4. Coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1100.1 yuan, down 93.1. Coke supply and demand remained in tight balance, with coking plants' costs rising due to coal price increases. The fourth round of price increases was quickly implemented this week, and the fifth round started. Steel mills intended to delay the implementation. Coking coal's macro - speculation sentiment cooled. The supply shortage was expected to ease in mid - August. [3][4][5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by strong sugar production signs in Brazil, ICE sugar futures declined slightly on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures' 2601 contract was pressured by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and lower spot prices, and it trended down on Thursday. Stonex reported that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was expected to be 40.16 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume was expected to be 598.8 million tons. [5] Rubber - Due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand and the year - on - year decline in the European replacement tire market in the second quarter, the spot prices in Southeast Asia decreased. Affected by this and the decline of Japanese rubber, Shanghai rubber futures trended down on Thursday. ANRPC predicted that in June 2025, global natural rubber production would decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption would increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production decreased by 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, and cumulative consumption increased by 1% to 7.715 million tons. [6] Soybean Meal - On July 31, CBOT soybean futures declined due to favorable crop weather in the US and sufficient global supply. The unexpectedly improved good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans weakened the expectation of production reduction. US soybean export sales in the week ended July 24 were higher than expected. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures oscillated. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to increase, pressuring prices. However, the extension of the tariff truce agreement between China and the US supported prices. [7] Live Pigs - On July 31, live pig futures trended weakly. Recently, the slaughter sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of pigs was abundant. Affected by official regulations, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased. High - temperature weather affected terminal consumption, and the pork market was sluggish. The overall market was in a state of loose supply and demand. [8] Palm Oil - On July 31, palm oil futures fluctuated at a high level and then declined. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative line. Ship - surveying agencies showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 decreased compared with the previous month. [8] Shanghai Copper - Due to the US imposing a 50% tariff on some imported copper products starting from August 1, COMEX copper futures crashed, and Shanghai copper was negatively affected. Global copper inventory was rising, and factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar suppressed copper prices. Shanghai copper was expected to continue its downward oscillation. [9] Iron Ore - On July 31, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and declined by 2.38%, closing at 779 yuan. Global iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, port inventory increased slightly, and iron - water production remained high. However, the domestic macro sentiment cooled, and iron ore prices were in an oscillatory state. [9] Asphalt - On July 31, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and rose by 0.3%, closing at 3659 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased. Although demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall, there was still a recovery expectation, and low inventory supported prices. Short - term prices would fluctuate. [9] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton. On August 1, the basis price at the Xinjiang designated delivery warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange was at least 430 yuan/ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 115 lots compared with the previous day. [10] Logs - On July 31, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 824, with a low of 819, a high of 830, and closed at 821.5, with a position reduction of 754 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in supply - demand, and spot trading was weak. [11] Steel - On July 31, rb2510 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3390 yuan/ton. The production and inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased significantly. Macro factors led to the decline, and there was a risk of spot price correction. [11] Alumina - On July 31, ao2509 closed at 3222 yuan/ton. Anti - involution measures had limited impact on clearing old - style alumina production capacity. In August, a 1.2 - million - ton new production line in Guangxi might be put into operation, and some maintenance lines in Shandong might resume production. The supply shortage might ease, but the actual output increase in August was expected to be limited. [12] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 31, al2509 closed at 20510 yuan/ton. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US dollar index remained strong. Domestic anti - involution policies drove up industrial metals. In the short term, the ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased, demand weakened, and social inventory increased slightly but remained low. Shanghai aluminum might oscillate at a high level. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 30, 2025, A - share major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index declined. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. 3. Summaries by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% to 11203.03 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62% to 2367.68 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1844.3 billion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index oscillated and closed at 4151.24, down 0.79 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 30, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1704.3, up 70.4. The coking coal weighted index maintained a narrow - range oscillation, closing at 1185.5 yuan, up 57.5 [2][3]. - Coke supply is stable with a slight increase as spot price hikes are implemented, improving coke enterprises' profitability and increasing their production enthusiasm. The demand side shows that although iron - water production decreased slightly month - on - month during the off - season, it remains at a high level. For coking coal, domestic supply has shrunk due to safety inspections in some coal - producing areas, while imports from Mongolia are active with increased customs clearance at the China - Mongolia border. The demand is supported by the improvement in coke enterprises' profits and the high - level iron - water production [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the increase in the sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Group and the uncertainty of Brazil's production report for the second half of July, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fell sharply on July 30. After a large short - term decline, it oscillated and adjusted overnight. As of June, the new sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Group was 320,000 mu, with a total planting area of 2.15 million mu [4]. Rubber - Before the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on August 1, the market sentiment was cautious. The Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 30 and continued to decline overnight, affected by the 3.5% year - on - year decrease in the European replacement tire market sales in the second quarter of 2025 and the month - on - month decline in China's pickup sales in June [4]. Soybean Meal - On July 30, CBOT soybean futures fell as the weather in the US Midwest was expected to be favorable for crops. The unexpectedly improved good - condition rate of US soybeans weakened the expectation of a soybean production decline. Brazil's soybean exports in July were expected to be 12.05 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated and closed higher on July 30. The abundant supply of imported soybeans led to large - scale oil - mill crushing, resulting in high soybean meal production and increased inventory. However, the extension of the China - US tariff truce agreement for 90 days supported the price. Future attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and soybean imports [5]. Live Pigs - On July 30, the live - pig futures price oscillated weakly. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. Meanwhile, due to high - temperature weather, the terminal consumption was weak, and the market for pork sales was sluggish. The overall live - pig market was in a state of loose supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation, the slaughtering rhythm, and the weight of live pigs [6]. Palm Oil - On July 29, palm oil continued to oscillate with a slightly reduced amplitude. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with long upper and lower shadows. The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on the tariff - quota method for palm oil trade. The zero - tariff policy is expected to increase the demand for palm oil in the food industry. Short - term attention should be paid to the specific zero - tariff quota [7]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper oscillated weakly. The macro - situation at home and abroad suppressed the copper price. The sharp month - on - month decline in US durable - goods orders, the unresolved EU - US tariff policy, and the upcoming third - round China - US tariff negotiations increased overseas risk - aversion sentiment. On the supply side, although there were issues such as the potential shutdown of the QB mine, the global mining - smelting contradiction was still intense, and the US copper import tariff might lead to potential oversupply. On the demand side, it was the off - season for terminal consumption, and the operating rates of domestic enameled - wire machines and copper - rod cable enterprises declined. The global copper inventory continued to rise, although the inventory in domestic exchanges decreased slightly to 73,000 tons. However, the low domestic inventory and policy expectations provided some support for the copper price [8]. Iron Ore - On July 30, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed down 0.44% at 789 yuan. The global iron - ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Steel - mill profits were acceptable, and the iron - ore demand remained resilient. The short - term iron - ore price may oscillate at a high level [8]. Asphalt - On July 30, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 1% at 3650 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared to July, and the supply shrank. Affected by rainy weather, the demand recovery was slower than expected. The short - term price will fluctuate [9]. Logs - On July 30, the 2509 log contract opened at 835.5, with a minimum of 825, a maximum of 835.5, and closed at 825, with a reduction of 489 lots. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and macro - market sentiment [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. On July 31, the minimum basis price of cotton in Xinjiang's designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 101 lots compared to the previous day [10]. Steel - On July 30, rb2510 closed at 3315 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3483 yuan/ton. The coking - coal spot market continued to be strong with a narrowing increase. With the rising cost, there was an expectation of a fifth - round price hike for coke, which strongly supported the steel price. Steel - mill profits recovered significantly, and there might be a slight incentive to increase production. In general, the steel market may see an increase in supply and demand, rising costs, and a favorable fundamental situation. However, the risk of price adjustments due to over - speculation of some varieties should be noted. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly [10]. Alumina - On July 30, ao2509 closed at 3326 yuan/ton. The spot inventory continued to rise, and the pressure on warehouse receipts was expected to ease. In addition to short - term fundamental disturbances, the recent decline in the low - level warehouse receipts also promoted the increase in the alumina price. Short - term positive factors were concentrated, and the low absolute price contributed to the leading increase this week. The short - term market sentiment was still bullish. However, in the medium term, the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse, and the sustainability of the alumina price increase was questionable [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 30, al2509 closed at 20,625 yuan/ton. The decline of the aluminum price slowed down, and it maintained a range - bound oscillation. The trading in the aluminum market was light, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase, and the spot market was relatively abundant. It was the off - season for consumption, and downstream enterprises mainly had rigid demand with limited trading volume [11].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 29, A-share market's three major indices rose collectively, with Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 2406.59 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1803.2 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index showed a strengthening trend on July 29, closing at 4152.02, up 16.2 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 29, the weighted coke index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1656.9, down 35.4; the weighted coking coal index maintained a consolidation trend, closing at 1170.5 yuan, down 43.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the spot price at ports decreased, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from July 29, 2025. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises transferred costs to steel mills, and the overall start - up of coking enterprises was stable. After the previous price increase, steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel was generally over 200 yuan/ton, but after the rapid price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants began to sell actively [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang area decreased by 118 yuan to 1331 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak. Some traders lowered prices due to the fear of high prices after the futures limit - down. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin accepted the fourth price increase of coke. Currently, coking enterprises' production profit is in a loss of about 50 yuan/ton [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Boosted by the rising crude oil price, US sugar rebounded on Monday. Affected by the rise of US sugar, short - sellers closed positions, driving the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to rise on Tuesday. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Analysts expect Brazil's central - southern region to have a sugarcane crushing volume of 48.3 million tons in the first half of July, a sugar output of 3.3 million tons, and an ethanol output of 2.19 billion liters in July, with year - on - year increases of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Tuesday. At night, it continued to consolidate and closed slightly higher. In June 2025, China's car tire dealer price composite index was 94.06, down 0.51% month - on - month; the truck and bus tire dealer price composite index was 99.08, down 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market on July 29, CBOT soybean futures fell. The weather forecast showed lower temperatures and periodic rainfall in the US Midwest this week, enhancing the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. As of the week ending July 27, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.05 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. Sufficient imported soybeans and high crushing volume in oil mills led to high soybean meal production and increased inventory, and the weakening of the US soybean market weakened cost support, so the soybean meal price may continue to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - On July 29, the live pig futures price was weak. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. High - temperature weather led to weak terminal consumption, and the consumption of pork was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig market is in a stage of increasing supply. As of the end of June, the number of fertile sows was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level, laying a foundation for abundant pig supply in the second half of the year [8]. Palm Oil - On July 28, palm oil fluctuated widely and then tested the support level again. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, closing at 8970, up 0.27%. According to CIMB Securities, if Indonesia implements the B50 biofuel regulation, its domestic palm oil consumption demand may increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of its crude palm oil output in 2024. However, since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [9]. Shanghai Copper - The approaching deadline of US tariff policies and the expected unchanged Fed interest rate are negative for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply is loose, and demand is weak. Inventory is at a low level. Technically, there is a possibility of a short - term trend reversal. Overall, copper prices will oscillate weakly, but the downward space may be limited due to low inventory [10]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,870 yuan/ton. On July 30, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 70 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Iron Ore - On July 29, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.63% at 798 yuan. The global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron ore demand remained resilient, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [11]. Asphalt - On July 29, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.78% at 3619 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall. The short - term price will fluctuate [11]. Logs - On July 29, the log futures contract 2509 opened at 828, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 838.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 1049 lots in positions. The spot market price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [11][12]. Steel - On July 29, the rb2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3503 yuan/ton. The steel market strengthened, possibly related to rumors of anti - involution and real estate meetings. The spot market quotation and trading strengthened, and the market's resistance to price drops increased, but market participation is difficult due to macro news [12]. Alumina - On July 29, the ao2509 contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The market sentiment driven by policies conflicts with the fundamentals. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is weak. In the short - term, the market sentiment may reverse, and the operation risk increases. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure is loose, and the price cannot deviate from the fundamentals for a long time [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 29, the al2509 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the tariff suspension expiration date on August 1, the Fed's end - of - month interest - rate meeting, and important domestic economic meetings, the impact of macro events on the market should be noted. Fundamentally, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the spot trading is average. The accumulation of social inventory is within the seasonal range, and the low inventory level supports the price [13].

Market Performance Summary - On July 28, A-share market indices rose: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% to 3597.94, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% to 11217.58, and ChiNext Index up 0.96% to 2362.60. Trading volume reached 1742.3 billion yuan, down 45 billion from Friday [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range fluctuation on July 28, closing at 4135.82, up 8.66 [1]. - On July 28, the coke weighted index returned to weakness, closing at 1623.9, down 138.9; the coking coal weighted index fell back after hitting resistance, closing at 1136.8 yuan, down 118.8 [1]. - On July 28, palm oil had a wide - range fluctuation and rebounded from the bottom, with the main contract P2509 closing up 0.11% at 8946 [4]. - On July 28, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.75% to close at 786 yuan [7]. - On July 28, the asphalt 2509 main contract fell 1.05% to close at 3569 yuan [9]. - On July 28, rb2510 closed at 3248 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3397 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities dropped 50 yuan/ton [10]. - On July 28, ao2509 closed at 3427 yuan/ton [10]. - On July 28, al2509 closed at 20615 yuan/ton [11]. - On July 28 night session, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14150 yuan/ton [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coal and Coke - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a notice on position limits for coking coal futures due to excessive and rapid price increases, which may have overdrawn market bullish factors [2]. - The National Energy Administration's coal production verification notice implies a shift from supply - contraction expectation to reality, bringing significant bullish changes to the coal - coke industry's supply - demand logic [2]. Sugar - Concerns about increased supply led to a decline in US sugar on Friday. Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fell on Monday due to factors like large short - term gains and weak US sugar, and rose slightly at night. India may allow sugar exports in the next season, increasing global supply pressure. As of July 22, net short positions of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar increased for the first time in three weeks [2]. Rubber - Eased border disputes between Thailand and Cambodia led to a decline in Southeast Asian spot rubber prices. Shanghai rubber fell on Monday and fluctuated at night. As of July 27, inventory in Qingdao ports showed a slight increase, with bonded inventory decreasing and general trade inventory increasing [3][4]. Palm Oil - From July 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 5.52% month - on - month, with a 6.08% increase in yield and a 0.10% decrease in oil extraction rate [4]. Soybean Meal - International CBOT soybean futures fell on July 28 due to trade uncertainties and slow US soybean export demand. Although the US soybean good - rate dropped to 68%, it's still at a relatively high level. In the domestic market, abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volume, and high inventory pressured soybean meal prices. Future focus is on US soybean weather and import situation [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - On July 28, hog futures prices fell. Currently, the hog market has abundant supply and weak demand. As of the end of June, the national sow inventory was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. Future focus is on policy regulation, hog slaughter rhythm, and weight [6]. Copper - Shanghai copper prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. Supply is tight due to limited overseas mine output, restricted US recycled copper imports, upcoming domestic smelter maintenance, and potential delays in imported scrap copper. Demand has some resilience due to grid investment growth and emerging sectors like new - energy vehicles [6]. Cotton - On the night of July 28, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14150 yuan/ton. The base price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 39 lots. Xinjiang cotton has entered the boll - setting stage, one week earlier than last year [7]. Iron Ore - On July 28, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.75%. Last week, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased slightly, arrivals dropped significantly, port inventory increased slightly, and iron ore demand remained resilient. Short - term prices may oscillate at a high level [7]. Asphalt - In August, asphalt refinery production is expected to decline month - on - month. Affected by rainfall, demand recovery is slower than expected, and short - term prices will fluctuate [9]. Logs - On July 28, the log market faced high - level pressure. Spot prices in Shandong remained unchanged, while those in Jiangsu increased. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [9]. Steel - After the steel price increase last week, steel mill profits improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions, there is a risk of price decline. After the "double - coke" futures limit - down on Monday, the market's speculative sentiment cooled, and steel prices also dropped [10]. Alumina - On July 28, alumina futures prices dropped as market bullish sentiment weakened. Supply is in excess as production capacity has reached a new high this year, imports increased, and domestic inventory rose [10]. Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is at a high level, with limited growth potential. Downstream demand is weak during the off - season, with low开工 rates for die - casting, aluminum rods, and profiles, and cold reception from downstream buyers [11].

Report Summary 1. Market Review - The main cotton futures contract closed with a small negative line this week. The closing price was 14,170 yuan per ton, down 100 points from last week's close [1] 2. News - The improvement of US unemployment data may affect the interest - rate cut policy. Brazilian association data shows a 7% year - on - year increase in cotton production, and consumption is on par with the average of the past five years. In China, high temperatures in Xinjiang this week have affected cotton growth [2] 3. Fundamentals - In terms of supply, it is generally tight. Port inventories are at a 20 - month low, and domestic cotton destocking was evident this week. On the demand side, downstream textile mills are in the off - season, with a declining operating rate. Enterprises are replenishing inventory normally. Cotton inventory decreased by 267 lots this week, and the basis rate is around 8.53% [3] 4. Global Supply and Demand Forecast - The USDA's global cotton supply - demand forecast monthly report shows that in the 2024/25 season, global production, consumption, trade volume, and beginning and ending inventories have all been revised down [5]

Variety Views - On July 25, A-share's three major indices declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3,593.66, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 11,168.14, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.23% to 2,340.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7873 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index adjusted on July 25, closing at 4,127.16, a decrease of 21.87 [1]. - On July 25, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1,778.4, a rise of 43.9 [1]. - On July 25, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1,283.4 yuan, a rise of 93.8 [2]. Influencing Factors of Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke prices rose and then fell during the day. The third round of price increases in the coking industry was proposed. Coking profits were meager, and daily coking production increased slightly after a continuous decline. Coke inventories decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness increased. Overall, the carbon element supply was still abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained high during the off - season [3]. - Coking coal mine production continued to decline slightly. The spot auction market improved, with rising transaction prices. Terminal inventories increased. Total coking coal inventories decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventories continued to decline. In the short term, inventory reduction was likely to continue. The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the coking coal industry was emerging, and policy implementation should be monitored [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Concerns about increased supply led to a decline in US sugar prices last Friday. Affected by the weakening of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract closed slightly lower in the night session on Friday. As of the week ending July 22, speculators increased their bearish bets on ICE US raw sugar futures and options. Funds increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 6,879 lots to 117,126 lots [3]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber adjusted on Friday. As of July 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory was 210,814 tons, a decrease of 2,102 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 182,020 tons, a decrease of 4,620 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 41,530 tons, an increase of 706 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 37,398 tons, an increase of 707 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean good - rate was lower than expected. August is a crucial period for US soybean production. Funds increased weather premiums, providing strong support for US soybeans at the 1,000 - cent mark. A new round of China - US trade negotiations is upcoming. In the domestic market, on July 25, soybean meal continued its weak trend. Domestic soybean supply was abundant, with high crushing volumes. Soybean meal production was high but sales were limited, resulting in a loose supply. Multiple negative factors, such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' requirements for pig farms to control production capacity and promote soybean meal substitution, are expected to keep the soybean meal market in a weak and volatile state. Future focus should be on US soybean产区 weather and import conditions [4][6]. Live Pigs - On July 25, live pig futures prices rose slightly. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' symposium signaled production capacity regulation, leading to strong policy expectations in the market. In the short term, the live pig futures market may be relatively strong, but in the long term, it will return to fundamental fluctuations. As of the end of June, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. From January to May, the monthly number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month, indicating abundant supply in the second half of the year. Currently, live pig consumption is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand. The overall live pig market has a loose supply - demand situation. Future focus should be on policy regulation, live pig slaughter rhythm, and weight [6]. Shanghai Copper - Fundamentally, the decline in copper ore processing fees indicates raw material shortages. The arrival of the consumption off - season has led to a decline in the operating rate of downstream cable enterprises, and inventories at home and abroad have continued to accumulate. The peak of photovoltaic installations has weakened new - energy demand, suppressing prices. In terms of news, Trump's tariff increases on multiple countries have raised trade concerns, and the dovish remarks of Fed officials have limited impact. Short - term downward pressure remains [6]. Iron Ore - On July 25, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.11% to 802.5 yuan. Last week, the shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly, arrivals dropped significantly, and port inventories increased slightly. Molten iron production decreased slightly but remained high. The policy expectations of "anti - involution" and important meetings have boosted market sentiment. However, iron ore prices have risen significantly recently, and it may be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On July 25, the asphalt 2509 main contract rose 0.78% to 3,615 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants continued to decline, and the planned production of local refineries in August decreased, resulting in a contraction in supply and inventory reduction. Refinery sales increased slightly, but due to rainy weather, demand recovery was slower than expected. Short - term prices will fluctuate [7]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,150 yuan/ton. On July 28, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange was at least 430 yuan/ton, and cotton inventories decreased by 72 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 25, the 2509 log contract opened at 829, with a low of 822, a high of 833.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 164 lots in positions. The market is facing increasing pressure at high levels. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 - 820 and the resistance at 850. The spot prices of medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment for the spot market [7][8]. Steel - Recently, the prices of wire rods and screws have been rising. The current market has gone through four stages: sentiment ignition, production reduction support, spot price follow - up, and futures price leading. This rebound coincides with the "anti - involution" movement in multiple industries. The coal mine production inspection notice has strengthened the "anti - involution" expectation, driving up coking coal prices and boosting the sentiment of the black - goods sector. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has increased expectations of demand expansion. Policy expectations and production - reduction themes have amplified price fluctuations, and the futures market has moved faster than the fundamentals. The prices of cyclical products such as coal and steel have reversed the downward trend since last下半年. Steel prices are in a range - bound state with "cost support and demand ceiling." The key to breaking the situation depends on the strength of demand recovery and policy implementation [8][10]. Alumina - Fundamentally, the disturbances in the Guinea mining area are gradually subsiding, and shipments may increase. The import volume of domestic bauxite has rebounded, and port inventories have been steadily accumulating. The domestic supply is relatively abundant, and bauxite prices are generally stable. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of alumina is slightly increasing at a high level, and smelters are highly motivated to produce. In the short term, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the concentrated release of alumina production capacity may be optimized and adjusted in the future, and long - term supply may converge. Overall, the alumina market may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, and industry expectations are gradually improving [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has approached the industry limit, with only marginal increases. Recently, due to favorable macro - environment factors, aluminum prices have been strong, and smelters have good profits and high operating willingness. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season on downstream industries is intensifying. Although the policy environment provides positive expectations for long - term industry growth and consumption promotion, the short - term weak consumption pressure has led to a slight increase in electrolytic aluminum inventories, a decrease in the proportion of aluminum water, and an increase in ingot production. Overall, the Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and weak demand. Long - term consumption expectations are good, and industry inventories are increasing slightly [10].