Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 16, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures varieties had different trends on September 16, including the performance of coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, soybean meal, etc., and their future trends are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [3][4][5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3087.04, up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated and sorted on September 16, closing at 4523.34, down 9.72 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 16, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1748.0, up 70.6 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1248.5 yuan, up 68.0 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, but due to the concession of raw coal, the profitability of coking plants is acceptable, and the supply of coke has increased. For coking coal, most coal mines in Shanxi that stopped or reduced production due to the parade have resumed production, and the supply from the origin has increased [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated widely on September 16, rising first and then falling, and closing slightly higher. At night, it fluctuated slightly lower [5]. - Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane planting area in 2025, but the sugarcane output is expected to decrease slightly compared with the previous year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's continuous rainfall has caused supply concerns, and Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on September 16. At night, it fluctuated and sorted [6]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The US soybean crop rating decreased compared with the previous week, and the harvest progress was faster than the five - year average [6]. - Domestically, on September 16, the soybean meal M2601 main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the price maintains a volatile and sorted trend [6][8]. Live Pigs - On September 16, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13160 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the short - term demand is difficult to form a strong support. The futures price of live pigs may maintain a low - level volatile trend [8]. Palm Oil - On September 16, palm oil futures continued to rebound slightly within the range, and the main contract P2601 closed with a small阳线 with an upper shadow line, up 0.64% from the previous day [9]. - Malaysian research institution Kenanga Research said that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The domestic copper concentrate supply and demand are expected to be tight, which will potentially support the price. However, the high copper price restricts the downstream demand [10]. Cotton - On the night of September 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13940 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 130 lots compared with the previous day. Some early - maturing varieties in Xinjiang have started to be picked [10]. Logs - On September 16, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 798.5, with the lowest at 794.5, the highest at 813, and closed at 806.5, with a decrease of 796 lots in positions. Pay attention to the support at 800 and the pressure at 813 [10]. Iron Ore - On September 16, the iron ore 2601 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.82%, closing at 803.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On September 16, the asphalt 2511 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.38%, closing at 3411 yuan. The current demand is not strong in the peak season, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [12]. Steel - On September 16, rb2601 closed at 3166 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3402 yuan/ton. The market is mainly based on supply - demand structure, but there may be policy - driven fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [12]. Alumina - On September 16, ao2601 closed at 2979 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction cannot be resolved, and the continuous expansion of supply suppresses the price. The fundamentals are weak [13]. Aluminum - On September 16, al2510 closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The demand has improved, but the inventory is still in a state of accumulation, and whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [13].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 15th, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to close at 3860.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.52% to 3066.18 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2277.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4533.06, up 11.06 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 15th, the coke weighted index trended stronger in a fluctuating manner, closing at 1700.9, up 75.5. The coking coal weighted index was strong, closing at 1196.6 yuan, up 53.1. Coke is facing a second - round price cut. The current iron - water output is 2405500 tons, an increase of 117100 tons. The coke inventory is moderately high, and the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed will announce interest rate decisions on September 17th, October 29th, and December 10th. The supply at the mine end has recovered, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory is at a moderate level [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the rebound of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the short - covering of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract led to an upward trend on Monday. The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US for the 2025/26 crushing season is 9.47 million short tons, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2% [2]. Rubber - Boosted by factors such as the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the stabilization of crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber trended higher on Monday. The night - session fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. In July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 35884 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36.7%. As of the end of July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber inventory increased by 15.5% to 171061 tons [3]. Palm Oil - On September 15th, the palm oil futures fluctuated upward within the range. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick. The highest price was 9442, the lowest was 9318, and the closing price was 9422, up 1.36% from the previous day. From September 1 - 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742648 tons, a 2.6% increase from the same period last month. As of September 12th, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 641500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22200 tons, or 3.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 128000 tons, or 24.92% [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 15th, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The seasonal harvest pressure is emerging. As of the week ending September 14th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 63%, and the harvest rate is 5%, in line with market expectations. As of September 11th, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 0.12% of the expected total area, and drought in the central - western region may disrupt the sowing work. Domestically, on September 15th, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. Currently, the import volume of soybeans is large, the supply is sufficient, the factory's operating rate is high, the crushing volume remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. However, due to the lack of a trade agreement between China and the US, there is still an expectation of tightened long - term soybean imports. Overall, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend [4]. Live Pigs - On September 15th, the main contract LH2511 closed at 13745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. In September, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, the group pig enterprises have a high slaughter plan, and the daily average slaughter has increased month - on - month. Although it is approaching the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live - pig futures price may maintain a low - level volatile trend [5]. Shanghai Copper - The market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 100%, and the market bets on three rate cuts this year, which keeps the US Treasury yield at a low level and supports the Shanghai copper price. Fundamentally, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has stopped production due to wet - material blockage, and the resumption time is uncertain, which intensifies the global shortage of copper concentrates and is beneficial to copper prices. However, in the week ending September 12th, the social inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 14.91% to 94054 tons, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high, weakening the support of low inventory on prices. Currently, at a high copper price, downstream buyers are mainly on the sidelines, the rigid demand procurement is limited, the release of peak - season demand is weak, and the willingness to chase the price is limited. The upward pressure on copper prices persists. Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to run strongly in the short term but may face certain pressure at high levels [5]. Iron Ore - On September 15th, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.31%, closing at 796 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly. The supply has tightened, the iron - water output has returned to a high level, and steel mills still have the demand for replenishing stocks. The supply has decreased while the demand has increased, and the short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 15th, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.29%, closing at 3393 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week, the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory level remained flat week - on - week. Due to weather factors, the current demand shows the characteristic of a peak season without a peak, and the fundamental driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will mainly operate in a volatile manner [6]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13910 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots compared with the previous trading day. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is firm, which boosts market sentiment to a certain extent [6]. Logs - On September 15th, the log futures opened at 798.5, with a minimum of 794.5, a maximum of 806.5, and closed at 804.5, with an increase of 709 lots in positions. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 334. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 810. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Pay attention to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [6][7]. Steel - On September 15th, rb2601 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3370 yuan/ton. From January to August, the industrial added value continued to grow rapidly, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. However, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have slowed down, and the real estate market is still in a downward cycle, resulting in a slow improvement in steel demand during the "Golden September". The National Bureau of Statistics said that in the next stage, it will strengthen the governance of over - capacity in key industries, advocate against disorderly competition among enterprises, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. On Monday, the "double - coke" futures rose sharply, pushing up the cost and driving up the steel price. Considering the general balance of supply and demand in the steel market, the continuous rise of steel prices is questionable, and it may run slightly stronger in a volatile manner in the short term [8]. Alumina - On September 15th, ao2601 closed at 2935 yuan/ton. Although there is no new production capacity coming on - stream in September, due to the stable output of new production capacity added in the first half of the year and the continuous resumption of production of some enterprises' overhauled production lines, the spot supply will be further relaxed, increasing the downward pressure on market prices. In terms of demand, the operation of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants is relatively stable, the long - term order demand for alumina is relatively stable, but the spot bulk order transactions may weaken. With the increase in the delivery - warehouse capacity and the market - circulating spot, the downstream aluminum plants' willingness to bargain for lower prices when purchasing has increased [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 15th, al2510 closed at 21020 yuan/ton. The improvement of the global economic outlook and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts are important macro - factors supporting the rise of aluminum prices. The US dollar index has weakened periodically, which is beneficial to commodities priced in US dollars. The macro - environment continues to send positive signals, enhancing the market's optimistic sentiment towards the aluminum demand outlook. Domestic and foreign investors and traders have increased their purchases, driving up the aluminum price. As the National Day holiday approaches, the recovery of demand and the increase in the proportion of direct delivery of ingots to terminals will trigger a turning point in inventory. The domestic aluminum market is expected to start a destocking cycle, but whether this turning point is stable still needs further verification from subsequent data [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On September 11, the A-share market showed strong performance, with significant increases in major indices and a large trading volume. However, different futures varieties had diverse trends affected by various factors such as supply - demand relations, international policies, and macro - economic conditions [1] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 11, the three major A - share indices soared. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36% to 12979.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to 3053.75 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 24377 billion yuan, a significant increase of 4596 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4548.03, a rise of 102.67 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 11, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1639.8, a rise of 29.7. The coking coal weighted index had a wide - range shock, closing at 1147.7 yuan, a rise of 28.8. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a range of 50/55 yuan/ton, and the iron - water output declined significantly. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, with more auction failures. Mine safety supervision was strict, and the resumption of production of sample mines was slow, but the upstream mine inventory began to decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal was 5282.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.36%, and the export of coke was 350.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28% [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the improvement of Brazilian ethanol prices and the decline of German sugar production, the US sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. Affected by the stabilization and rebound of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose on Thursday. A well - known industry institution suggested that India should allow 2 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 market year due to supply surplus [3] Rubber - Mexico planned to impose a maximum 50% tariff on automobiles, auto parts, steel, and textiles from China and other countries without a trade agreement with Mexico. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday. In August, Vietnam's rubber export volume increased by 5.1% month - on - month, and Cote d'Ivoire's export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Soybean Meal - On September 11, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The upcoming soybean harvest in the US increased the seasonal supply pressure. As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/26 season was 541100 tons. Brazil's soybean sowing season started earlier, and Argentina's new - season soybean planting area was expected to decrease by 4.3% year - on - year to 17.6 million hectares. In the domestic market, on September 11, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated. The M2601 main contract closed at 2088 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.72%. The large import of soybeans, sufficient supply, high - level operation of factories, and high - volume crushing led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, putting pressure on prices. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations made the market have expectations of a decline in long - term supply, resulting in a fluctuating price [4][5] Live Pigs - On September 11, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.04%. In September, the production capacity was in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the daily average slaughter of group pig enterprises increased month - on - month. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption seasons were approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption was slow, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose [5] Palm Oil - On September 11, the palm oil futures market stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9334, the lowest was 9208, and the closing price was 9330, a rise of 0.93% from the previous day. From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased compared with the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - The high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the weakening of the US dollar increased the allocation value of copper, providing upward momentum for the Shanghai copper price. However, global trade frictions were still uncertain, and the tight supply pattern of mines was difficult to change in the short term. With the deepening of the traditional consumption season and the promotion of relevant industrial policies, the downstream demand was expected to be further released, especially the increasing demand from the new energy and power industries, but the recovery speed of traditional consumption areas remained to be seen [6] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13830 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 163 lots compared with the previous trading day. Pakistan's first genetically modified cotton was developed and was being tested in some areas, with a yield more than three times the current national average [6] Iron Ore - On September 11, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down with a decline of 0.81%, at 795.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume and port arrival volume decreased, and the iron - water output declined significantly. However, due to the good profits of steel mills, the demand for iron - water was expected to recover, and the short - term iron ore price fluctuated [6] Asphalt - On September 11, the 2511 main contract of asphalt closed up with a rise of 0.76%, at 3463 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, but the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers decreased. Affected by weather, the demand showed the characteristic of "peak season without prosperity", and the short - term price fluctuated [7] Logs - On September 11, the log futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot trading was weak [7][8] Steel - On September 11, rb2601 closed at 3092 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3334 yuan/ton. Some steel mills resumed production this week, increasing the consumption of iron ore. After the first - round price cut of coke, it was weakly stable. Due to the slow recovery of downstream terminal demand in "Golden September", high - price sales were difficult, and the decline of rebar and iron ore futures on Thursday intensified market wait - and - see sentiment, resulting in repeated price fluctuations in the short term [8] Alumina - On September 11, ao2601 closed at 2945 yuan/ton. Alumina maintained a weak and fluctuating operation. Supply surplus and warehouse receipt pressure were the upper limits, but the support around the full - cost of 2850 yuan was strengthening. The price stability depended on the interruption of Guinea's ore supply and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. If there were disturbances in the ore end and the rebound of aluminum prices, alumina might have a phased recovery in the fourth quarter [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 11, al2510 closed at 20915 yuan/ton. The current aluminum market had multiple positive factors in the macro - aspect, providing strong support for the price. However, downstream industries were cautious in purchasing, and the release of inventory demand was limited. Affected by weak cost support and bearish market sentiment, the electrolytic aluminum price would remain strong, but attention should be paid to raw material prices and downstream actual demand [9]

Variety Views - On September 10, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13% to 3812.22, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.38% to 12557.68, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27% to 2904.27. The trading volume of the two markets was 1978.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 140.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated on September 10, closing at 4445.36, up 9.11 [1]. - On September 10, the coke weighted index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1612.3, down 12.1 [1]. - On September 10, the coking coal weighted index remained weak, closing at 1121.0 yuan, down 22.5 [2]. Impact on Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - Coke: Last week, coke enterprises in the northern region were restricted by production limits, but this week's production rate is expected to recover. Steel mills' production will resume this week. Downstream demand is average, with on - demand procurement. Coke enterprises' inventory is accumulating, and the spot market sentiment is weakening with a price cut expectation [3]. - Coking coal: Last week, the coal mine's production rate declined significantly, but it is expected to recover this week. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level this year, and the downstream receiving enthusiasm is average, with the spot market quotation slightly falling. The downstream enterprises' production rate decreased last week due to production limits, but they still have the motivation to operate due to good profits. The market is waiting for the peak season to start downstream replenishment [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the Brazilian ethanol price has risen, which may lead sugar mills to modify the sugar/ethanol production ratio. Affected by this, the US sugar rebounded on Tuesday. Supported by factors such as the US sugar's stable rebound and stable spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly on Wednesday. At night, it fluctuated slightly higher. Vietnam's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to continue to grow, with sugarcane production exceeding 13.34 million tons and sugar production exceeding 1.37 million tons, an increase of 8.24% year - on - year [3]. Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Wednesday. Bosch's CEO expects the automotive industry to face intense competition next year, limiting production. Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from September 10 - 11. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher at night. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and a 35% increase year - on - year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales exceeded 700,000 vehicles, reaching about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [4]. Soybean Meal - On September 10, CBOT soybean futures closed down. As the US soybean harvest is about to start, the supply pressure is rising without Chinese purchases. The US Department of Agriculture will release a monthly supply - demand report on Friday, and the market expects a slight decrease in the US soybean yield and a high probability of a decrease in US soybean export data. In the domestic market, on September 10, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The import soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal output is large. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.16 million tons, a new high in nearly a year. Although the import of soybeans in the past two months has exceeded expectations, the Sino - US trade negotiation is undecided, and the market expects a decline in future supply. The soybean meal price will continue to oscillate [4][6]. Live Pigs - On September 10, the live pig futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13315 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. Currently, the production capacity is being realized, the inventory of suitable - weight and medium - large pigs is increasing, and the daily sales pressure of group pig enterprises is increasing, resulting in an oversupply in the market. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, the terminal consumption recovery is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live pig supply - demand situation remains loose [6]. Shanghai Copper - The US PPI in August showed an unexpected 0.1% monthly decline in the final product price of total demand, with an annual increase of 2.6%, far lower than the market expectation. This indicates that the expected acceleration of wholesale inflation did not occur. Global copper inventories are still at a historical low. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 78,225 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to decline. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5752 tons to 36,110 tons this week, which supports the copper price. However, the peak - season demand expectation is weak, the price decline is supported, but there is no upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity moves up slowly [7]. Iron Ore - On September 10, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.25%, at 805 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly, resulting in a tightened supply. The molten iron production decreased significantly, but due to good steel mill profits, the demand for molten iron is expected to recover. The short - term iron ore price will oscillate [7]. Asphalt - On September 10, the asphalt 2511 main contract closed up 0.88%, at 3450 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate continued to decline, and the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to improve, but the actual driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will oscillate [7]. Logs - On September 10, the log 2511 contract opened at 803, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 808, and closed at 806.5, with a daily reduction of 442 lots. The futures price rebounded to the 60 - day moving average of 812. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 812. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 8th showed that the import of logs and sawn timber from January to August decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on the price [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,860 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 137 lots compared with the previous trading day. Heavy rain and floods in the Pakistani cotton area affected cotton harvesting [8]. Steel - On September 10, rb2601 closed at 3109 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3342 yuan/ton. The demand recovery in the steel market in "Golden September" is still slow. Low - price resources are traded well, while high - price resources are not. Currently, the market is in a fierce long - short game, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Downstream terminals purchase on - demand, and the steel price may continue to oscillate narrowly [8]. Alumina - On September 10, ao2601 closed at 2933 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity and weekly output are at a high level, and enterprises still have a certain profit margin. There is also an expectation of new production capacity in the future, so the supply will be continuously sufficient. The downstream electrolytic aluminum is already operating at full capacity, and without new production capacity, the downstream demand cannot increase, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and continuous inventory accumulation. In this context, the alumina market remains in a state of oversupply, and the price continues to oscillate weakly [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 10, al2510 closed at 20,790 yuan/ton. The macro environment remains favorable. Fundamentally, the downstream demand has improved marginally, the proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the ingot casting volume has decreased. However, the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory has not arrived, and the actual demand has not improved significantly. The cost upward space of downstream enterprises is limited, but there are still expectations of interest rate cuts and a peak season. The aluminum price is supported at the bottom, and the subsequent price still depends on the realization of the consumption peak season [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a collective correction on September 9, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.23%. The trading volume in the two markets shrank by 300.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The overall market showed a weak trend [1]. - The prices of coal and coke futures are affected by multiple factors. The consumption of coke decreased by 4.7% following the decline in molten iron. The inventory situation is mixed, with mine coking coal starting to destock (a single - week destocking of 5.48%) and coke enterprises' coke inventory continuing to accumulate (a single - week accumulation of 1.84%). The price drivers are mainly the ongoing replenishment of steel mill furnace materials, the improved demand in the peak season due to better sales of downstream building materials and hot - rolled coils, and the suppression of coal mine复产 limits by the energy bureau's follow - up spot checks on some production areas, which is generally beneficial to the supply - demand relationship of coal and coke [5]. 3. Summary by Variety [Stock Index Futures] - On September 9, the A - share market's three major indexes all declined. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3807.29 points, down 0.51%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12510.60 points, down 1.23%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2867.97 points, down 2.23%. The trading volume in the two markets was 2.1185 trillion yuan, a decrease of 300.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also showed a weakening trend, closing at 4436.26, a decrease of 31.32 from the previous day [1][2]. [Coke and Coking Coal] - On September 9, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1606.3, a decrease of 17.8. The weighted index of coking coal also showed a weak operation, closing at 1127.4 yuan, a decrease of 18.7. The consumption of coke decreased by 4.7% following the decline in molten iron. Mine coking coal started to destock (a single - week destocking of 5.48%), while coke enterprises' coke inventory continued to accumulate (a single - week accumulation of 1.84%). The price drivers are mainly the ongoing replenishment of steel mill furnace materials, the improved demand in the peak season due to better sales of downstream building materials and hot - rolled coils, and the suppression of coal mine复产 limits by the energy bureau's follow - up spot checks on some production areas [3][4][5]. [Zhengzhou Sugar] - Due to a large short - term decline, the US sugar rebounded on Monday. However, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by short - sellers and showed a slight decline during the day. At night, it rose slightly due to short - covering. A survey shows that the sugar beet production in the EU 27 countries and the UK in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 113.6 million tons, less than 1% higher than the previous estimate, with an estimated range between 103.6 million and 123.6 million tons, due to improved weather conditions in Western and Central Europe supporting the late - stage growth of crops [5]. [Rubber] - Due to the slowdown in exports, the operating rate of tire enterprises declined. Last week, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 58.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 69.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5%. Affected by this and the increase in natural rubber imports in August, long - position liquidation pressured the Shanghai rubber futures to fall sharply on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, it entered a consolidation phase at night. In August 2025, China imported a total of 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19% [6]. [Palm Oil] - On September 9, the palm oil futures market showed a slight fluctuation, waiting for the impetus from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) monthly report on the next day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9506, the lowest was 9428, and the closing price was 9486, up 0.21% from the previous day. As of September 5, 2025 (week 36), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 619,300 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 1.51%, and an increase of 62,900 tons compared to 556,400 tons in the same period last year, a growth rate of 11.31% [6][8]. [Soybean Meal] - On September 9, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. As of the week ending September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63% but still lower than the previous period and the same period last year. With the upcoming soybean harvest in the US and the lack of Chinese purchases of new - season US soybeans, the supply pressure of US soybeans continues to increase. In the domestic market, on September 9, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated. The main contract M2601 closed at 3075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%. The crushing volume of imported soybeans remains high, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.16 million tons, a new high in nearly a year. In the past two months, the volume of imported soybeans arriving in China has exceeded expectations. With the large export potential of Brazilian soybeans and domestic reserve resources, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still strongly guaranteed, limiting the upward potential of soybean meal's long - term price, and it may continue to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean import situations [8]. [Live Pigs] - On September 9, the live pig futures price showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract LH2511 closed at 13,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. Currently, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage. The inventory of suitable - weight standard pigs and medium - large pigs has increased, and the daily sales pressure of large - scale pig enterprises has increased, resulting in an oversupply in the market. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak seasons are approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The supply - demand relationship remains loose, and the live pig futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Future attention should be paid to the pig slaughter rhythm and market demand [9]. [Shanghai Copper] - Geopolitical tensions have intensified. US President Trump said he was ready to launch the "second - stage sanctions" against Russia, which may even involve pressure on oil trade, increasing market uncertainty and suppressing the outlook for metal demand. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is still tight. The Panama copper mine is about to enter the environmental audit stage. Terminal consumption feedback is weak, the premium has回调 from a high level, and there is a gap between the expected peak consumption season and the actual performance, putting downward pressure on copper prices. Attention should be paid to macroeconomic data, policy changes, and dynamic adjustments in the supply - demand relationship [9]. [Cotton] - On the night of September 9, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,835 yuan/ton. On September 10, the minimum basis quotation at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1,190 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 112 lots compared to the previous day [9]. [Logs] - On September 9, the 2511 log futures contract opened at 806, with a minimum of 801.5, a maximum of 810, and closed at 805.5, with a daily reduction of 19 lots. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 812. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 812. On September 9, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. According to customs data on the 8th, from January to August, the import of logs and sawn timber decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [10]. [Iron Ore] - On September 9, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and rose, with a growth rate of 2.03%, and closed at 805 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore in this period decreased compared to the previous period, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly, resulting in a tightened supply. The molten iron output decreased significantly in stages. However, due to the current good profits of steel mills, there is an expectation of a rebound in molten iron demand after the end of the phased production restrictions. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend [10]. [Asphalt] - On September 9, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed higher, with a growth rate of 0.09%, and closed at 3420 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline, and the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak season, there is an expectation of improved terminal demand, but the actual driving force is still limited. In the short term, the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate [11][12]. [Steel] - On September 9, rb2601 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3352 yuan/ton. The trading volume of construction steel exceeded 110,000 tons, and the "Golden September" demand has improved, but the recovery momentum is not stable. At the same time, with the resumption of production of blast furnaces in Tangshan, the molten iron output of steel mills may remain at a high level. In addition, the prices of raw fuels have shown different trends recently, with coking coal and coke prices being weak and iron ore prices being strong. The iron ore futures led the rise in the black - series commodities, driving some steel markets to stop falling and rebound. In the short term, it may not break away from the fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the "Golden September" and whether the supply - demand fundamentals are substantially improved [12]. [Alumina] - On September 9, ao2601 closed at 2929 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have not yet entered the peak - season trading period, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached its peak, so the demand for raw materials is not sustainable, and it is difficult to stimulate the enthusiasm for purchasing alumina in the short term. In the spot market, the spot price continued to fall, the quotes of holders began to loosen, the inquiry situation of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises was average, and overall, they maintained just - in - time procurement. The overall trading atmosphere was dull, with more low - price transactions, but large - scale transactions were still difficult to form, and the daily trading performance was mediocre [12]. [Shanghai Aluminum] - On September 9, al2510 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton. Consumption showed signs of recovery, but the supply of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory still had a slight accumulation. In the spot market, in the East China region, the market was mainly for selling, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises was average. In the Central Plains market, downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods weakened. The supply side has a slight increase, and the consumption side shows marginal recovery signs, with an expectation of continued improvement in demand. However, the high aluminum price suppresses downstream consumption, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [13].

Report Overview - The report is the Guoxin Guozheng Futures Morning Report on September 9, 2025, covering multiple futures varieties and related market information [1] Market Performance on September 8, 2025 Stock Index Futures - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 3826.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 12666.84 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.84% to 2933.25 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2418.7 billion yuan, an increase of 114.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4467.57, a rise of 7.25 [2] Commodity Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1627.2, a rise of 5.1 [3] - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1147.5 yuan, a rise of 17.4 [4] - Palm Oil: The main contract P2601 closed at 9466, a decrease of 0.63% [6] - Bean Meal: The main contract M2601 closed at 3081 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46% [9] - Live Hogs: The main contract LH2511 closed at 13305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% [10] - Iron Ore: The main contract 2601 closed at 792 yuan, a rise of 0.64% [11] - Asphalt: The main contract 2511 closed at 3440 yuan, a rise of 0.29% [11] - Logs: Opened at 800, lowest at 796, highest at 814, and closed at 807.5, with a daily reduction of 1047 lots [12] - Steel: rb2601 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3352 yuan/ton [12] - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 2960 yuan/ton [13] - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton [13] Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented this week. Coking plants still have profits, and those that previously reduced production due to environmental protection or temporary reasons are gradually resuming production. The daily customs clearance vehicle number at the 288 port of Mongolian coal has recovered to over 1200 vehicles. Downstream coke enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and there are many cases of auction failures or price - cut transactions in major mines in Shanxi [5] - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal and coke has increased in the short term, iron - water production has declined, demand is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally. However, the speculation against "involution" has heated up again, and there are still disturbances on the coal mine supply side, and the inspection of over - production still needs attention. There is an expectation of an increase in iron - water production [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Favorable prospects for sugarcane crops in India and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar mills' preference for sugar production over ethanol, as well as increased corn - ethanol production in the US, have restricted the upward movement of US sugar. Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Monday due to stable spot prices and technical factors, but fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure. As of September 2, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar increased by 11067 lots to 85805 lots [5] Rubber - Shanghai rubber adjusted on Monday due to large short - term gains and technical factors, and fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure. As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 10,000 tons to 592,300 tons, a decrease of 1.66% [6] Bean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose on September 8 due to a decline in the growth condition of US soybeans. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans as of September 7 was 64%. The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1.8092 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In the domestic market, the price of bean meal is in a state of loose supply, and it may maintain a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [9] Live Hogs - The price of live hogs was weakly volatile on September 8. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume in the first and middle of September increased month - on - month, suppressing the futures price. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow. In the long - term, the inventory of breeding sows in July reached 103.6% of the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized, and the price will remain low [10] Shanghai Copper - Disappointing US non - farm payroll data has reduced investors' risk appetite and demand expectations, putting pressure on Shanghai copper prices. The inventory of electrolytic copper has continued to accumulate. In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate, with support at 79000 - 79400 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 80400 yuan/ton [10] Iron Ore - The main contract of iron ore 2601 rose on September 8. The global iron ore shipment last week reached a high for the year, and the arrival volume also increased month - on - month. Although iron - water production has decreased significantly, the demand for iron ore is still supported due to good steel mill profits. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [11] Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt 2511 rose on September 8. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline last week, and the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers increased slightly. The demand expectation has improved, but the actual driving force is limited. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [11] Logs - The supply - demand relationship of logs has no major contradictions, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [12] Steel - After the sharp rise and fall of coking coal and coke futures on Friday, the black futures fluctuated repeatedly. With the alleviation of high - temperature weather, the demand for steel in September has improved marginally, but there is also pressure on supply expansion. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the demand in September [12] Alumina - The spot price of alumina continued to fall, and the futures and spot prices are basically matched. After the sharp decline, some smelters and traders have started to buy at low prices. The short - term negative impact of oversupply has been partially released, but the rebound space is limited, and it will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13] Shanghai Aluminum - Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm payroll data on the Fed's interest - rate cut path, and the guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan" on the industrial field. Fundamentally, the supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is accumulating slightly. There are regional differences in demand, with better demand in central China and Shandong, and weaker demand in East China [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On September 5, 2025, the A-share market had a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 3.89%, and the ChiNext Index up 6.55%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2304.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, production costs, and market sentiment. For example, some futures were in a weak - shock state, while others had short - term rebounds or declines [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On September 5, the three major A - share indexes rose sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51 points, up 1.24%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56 points, up 3.89%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2958.18 points, up 6.55%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2304.7 billion yuan, down 239.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4460.32, up 95.12 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 5, the coke weighted index rebounded strongly, closing at 1651.0, up 74.3; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1160.4 yuan, up 72.1. The eighth round of coke price increase by coking plants was resisted by steel mills. Coking profits improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm. The coking coal market showed some looseness, with an increase in the auction failure rate [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The sugarcane crop prospects in India and Thailand are favorable after heavy rain this year, and Brazilian sugar mills tend to produce more sugar. Negative factors such as Brazilian corn ethanol have a great impact on Brazilian sugar exports. The US sugar market oscillated slightly lower on September 5, while the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract rebounded slightly due to technical factors and bargain - hunting [6][7]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term increase, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and consolidated overnight on September 5. As of September 5, the natural rubber inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 7027 tons to 205360 tons, and the futures warrants decreased by 16410 tons to 162230 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 1614 tons to 50400 tons, and the futures warrants increased by 907 tons to 46569 tons [7]. Soybean Meal - On September 5, the CBOT soybean futures closed down. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to increase in the short term, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of 2026, which may support the price [8]. Live Pigs - On September 5, the live pig futures prices were in a weak oscillation. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13325 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The increase in the supply of group enterprises in the short term and the slow recovery of terminal consumption have put pressure on the futures prices. In the long term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9]. Palm Oil - On the night of September 5, palm oil futures oscillated downward due to the reduction of long - position holdings by some investors. The main contract P2601 closed at 9440, down 0.9% from the previous trading day [9]. Shanghai Copper - On the night of September 5, the Shanghai copper main contract showed a weak pattern of opening high and moving low. In the short term, it may continue to oscillate weakly and test support levels. Before the macro - demand improves substantially, the price is difficult to get out of the weak pattern [10]. Logs - On September 5, the 2511 log futures opened at 796, with a minimum of 792.5, a maximum of 803, and closed at 800, with a reduction of 701 lots. The futures price was below the 60 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 800 mark [10]. Iron Ore - On September 5, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.77%, at 789.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment has rebounded to a high this year, and the arrival volume has also increased. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [12]. Asphalt - On September 5, the asphalt 2511 main contract oscillated and declined, down 1.15%, closing at 3437 yuan. The short - term asphalt price is mainly in an oscillating state [12]. Cotton - On the night of September 5, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton. As of September 8, the base - price quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was at least 1160 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 119 lots compared with the previous trading day [13]. Steel - The anti - involution hype expectation has driven up the prices of coking coal and steel. The steel fundamentals are currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season demand. The short - term steel futures prices are relatively strong, but attention should be paid to the authenticity of the anti - involution expectation [13]. Alumina - The termination of EGA's bauxite business in Guinea has little impact on the bauxite supply. The alumina fundamentals are weak, with a slight increase in supply and stable demand [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The alumina supply is relatively loose, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit is good. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is gradually recovering [14].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 4, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had a collective pullback. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.83% to 12118.70, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.25% to 2776.25. The trading volume reached 2544.3 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.21, down 94.62 [1][2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index closed at 1585.0, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1093.5 yuan, down 21.7 [3][4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Affected by the expected sufficient supply in major producing countries, the US sugar oscillated lower on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, and continued to fall at night [5]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber had a narrow - range fluctuation. Natural rubber was strong while 20 - rubber was weak. Supported by the strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher at night. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 999,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 4. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated, with the M2601 contract closing at 3048 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [6]. - **Live Hogs**: The live hog futures price oscillated weakly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. In September, the market supply is still under pressure, but the consumption is seasonally picking up [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures oscillated slightly. The main contract P2601 closed at 9390, up 0.23%. Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons [8]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the cost supports the price. The domestic demand is expected to recover, but the export demand may decline [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose 1.67% to 791.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the demand is slightly weak, but the terminal demand in the peak season provides support [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2510 contract fell 2.14% to 3468 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the short - term price will oscillate [10]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13960 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 167 lots [10]. - **Log**: The 2511 log contract opened at 797, closed at 797, with an increase of 317 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [10][12]. - **Steel**: The rb2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is unstable, and the short - term price will fluctuate slightly [12]. - **Alumina**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2980 yuan/ton. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the cost support is weakening [13]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The al2510 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. The high - level oscillation of the main contract may continue, and the market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression" [13]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market had a significant pullback on September 4, with increased trading volume [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are under pressure. The coking coal inventory is increasing, and the coke price increase is not implemented while some areas propose price cuts [5]. - The sugar market is affected by the expected sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5]. - The rubber market is supported by the supply - side situation in Southeast Asia [6]. - The soybean meal price oscillates due to sufficient domestic supply and potential supply from South America [6][7]. - The live hog market has supply pressure in the short term, but the consumption is seasonally improving [7]. - The palm oil market shows a slight upward trend, and the production in Malaysia is estimated to increase [8]. - The Shanghai copper price is affected by supply, cost, demand, and external factors such as US economic data [9]. - The iron ore price oscillates due to the change in supply - demand relationship and the support from the peak - season demand [9]. - The asphalt price oscillates with the decline of capacity utilization rate and general terminal demand [10]. - The log market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. - The steel price has limited fluctuations, and the demand recovery will determine the future trend [12]. - The alumina price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakened cost support [13]. - The Shanghai aluminum price is in a balanced state between macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression [13]. 3. Factors Affecting Different Commodities Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: The eighth - round price increase is not implemented, and some areas propose the first - round price cut. The iron water production is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in China accounts for 30% of the terminal energy consumption, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. The mine inventory is increasing, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected sufficient supply in major producing countries and the decline of US sugar and spot prices affect the price of Zhengzhou sugar [5]. Rubber - The strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia support the price of Shanghai rubber [6]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean harvest is approaching, and Brazil's exports are expected to increase. In the domestic market, the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the potential supply from South America, and the increase of soybean meal inventory affect the price [6][7]. Live Hogs - The supply is under pressure in September, but the consumption is seasonally picking up due to the start of the school term [7]. Palm Oil - The production increase in Malaysia affects the price of palm oil [8]. Shanghai Copper - **Supply**: The domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and the refined copper production is expected to decline slightly. - **Cost**: The TC fee is negative, and the raw material price increase supports the copper price. - **Demand**: The export demand may decline due to US tariffs, but the domestic demand is expected to recover. - **External Factor**: The US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the copper price [9]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded to the annual high, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron water production has decreased slightly, but the peak - season demand provides support [9]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the terminal demand is general [10]. Log - The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. Steel - The demand for steel is unstable during the off - peak to peak - season transition. The cost changes little, and the production may remain high [12]. Alumina - The supply is increasing due to the resumption of production lines and the stable output of new capacity. The cost support is weakening due to the decline of bauxite price [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression", and the US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the market sentiment [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 3, 2025, the A - share market showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets significantly decreased by 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Various futures products presented different price trends and influencing factors, including supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international market conditions [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 3, the A - share market's three major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.00, down 0.65%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2899.37, up 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.3641 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index continued to adjust on September 3, closing at 4459.83, a decrease of 30.62 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 3, the coke weighted index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1597.7, a decrease of 9.6 from the previous day [2]. - On September 3, the coking coal weighted index was weak, closing at 1104.7 yuan, a decrease of 13.9 from the previous day [3]. - For coke, the fifth round of price increase was implemented, but steel mills' high profitability led to weak production - reduction willingness. The daily average production of long - process hot metal decreased slightly to 240.71 million tons last week. The demand support for coke increased slightly. The trading logic switched to the dual - wheel drive of macro - industrial policies and fundamentals [4]. - For coking coal, the supply from the Sino - Mongolian border decreased slightly, port inventories decreased, and the overall supply narrowed. The demand support remained, and the inventory accumulation situation improved [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as sufficient rainfall in India and Thailand and Brazilian sugar mills' preference for sugar production, the US sugar price oscillated downward on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated downward on Wednesday under the influence of the decline in US sugar prices and spot price cuts. As of the end of August, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.7563 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 299,700 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 89.04%, a year - on - year increase of 0.62 percentage points [4]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday and closed slightly lower due to the decline in the stock market. Affected by factors such as the decline in crude oil prices and the significant decline in global natural rubber consumption in July predicted by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, it oscillated downward at night. In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, an increase of 7.9% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 3, CBOT soybean futures were weak. As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. Domestically, on September 3, soybean meal futures oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The high - capacity utilization rate of imported soybeans led to an increase in soybean meal inventory to 1.063 million tons. The price oscillated, and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports should be focused on [6]. Live Pigs - On September 3, live pig futures prices showed a weak oscillation. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13,550 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. In September, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises increased month - on - month, but the terminal demand showed signs of slow recovery. In the medium - to - long - term, the inventory of fertile sows in July was 40.42 million, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter was large. In the short - term, live pigs may oscillate weakly in a range [7]. Palm Oil - On September 3, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick with an upper shadow, at 9468 yuan, down 0.57% from the previous day. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 was 2.2 million tons, an increase of 4.06% from July; production was 1.86 million tons, an increase of 2.5% from July; exports were 1.45 million tons, an increase of 10.7% from July [7]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper was actively traded. After opening, the price oscillated around the previous day's settlement price. In the morning, the bulls pushed the price up, but after reaching the daily high, the bears forced the price down. It was affected by factors such as the rise of precious metals and the possible Fed rate cut in September. The market was still cautious [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,965 yuan/ton. On September 3, the base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 135 lots compared to the previous day [8]. Logs - On September 3, the 2511 log contract opened at 810.5, with a low of 796.5, a high of 810.5, and closed at 798.5, with an increase of 2557 lots in positions. The futures price broke below the 60 - day moving average of 812, and the pressure at the 800 mark should be noted. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in foreign - market quotes drove up the domestic futures price [8][9]. Iron Ore - On September 3, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated and closed up 0.71%, at 777 yuan. The global iron ore shipment returned to the highest level of the year, the arrival volume increased month - on - month, and the hot - metal production decreased slightly. The short - term price was in an oscillating trend [10]. Asphalt - On September 3, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated and closed down 0.36%, at 3551 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and the shipment volume increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak - demand season, the demand in both southern and northern markets is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will oscillate [10]. Steel - On September 3, rb2601 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The short - term demand improvement was limited, the trading of low - price resources was acceptable, but that of high - price resources was poor. The demand in the peak season of September remains to be verified. Most steel mills had small profits, and the blast furnaces in Tangshan will resume production in the second half of the week. The steel production may remain at a high level. In the short - term, steel prices may oscillate narrowly [10]. Alumina - On September 3, ao2601 closed at 2992 yuan/ton. The expectation of anti - involution policies weakened, and the market sentiment returned to be dominated by fundamentals. The short - term supply of imported bauxite was tight, but the new production capacity was expected to be continuously put into use, and the supply pressure was prominent. The increasing number of exchange - registered warehouse receipts suppressed the futures price [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 3, al2510 closed at 20,710 yuan/ton. The expectation of the Fed rate cut and China's policy support created a positive atmosphere, which was expected to boost aluminum consumption. However, it would take time for the policy to be transmitted to actual consumption. In the traditional peak season of September, aluminum prices were generally likely to rise but faced top - end pressure [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, the A-share market and multiple futures varieties showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy restrictions, and international market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][11][12] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 2, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2875 billion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also adjusted downward, closing at 4490.45, a decrease of 33.26 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On September 2, the weighted coke index showed weak consolidation, closing at 1599.6, a decrease of 6.9. There is a temporary supply contraction due to upcoming northern regional restrictions, while steel mills also face restrictions, and cost support is weakening [2][4] - Coking Coal: On September 2, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 9.2. Some mines in major coal - producing areas have suspended production, and downstream enterprises will face restrictions, resulting in weak supply and demand [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction in spot prices and short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on September 2 and continued to fall slightly at night. India will allow unrestricted use of sugarcane juice, syrup, and molasses for ethanol production in the new season [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range fluctuation on September 2 and closed slightly higher. Boosted by rising crude oil prices, it rose slightly at night. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.6% [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 2, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.782 billion tons, a 5.6% increase year - on - year. Domestically, on September 2, soybean meal futures fluctuated. The M2601 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease. High imports and high processing volumes have led to sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5] Live Hogs - On September 2, live hog futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2511 contract closed at 13595 yuan/ton, a 0.22% decrease. In September, supply is sufficient, and some areas face disease risks. Although there is a recovery in terminal demand due to the start of the school season, the support for prices is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is high [7] Palm Oil - On September 2, palm oil futures continued a slight rebound but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2601 closed at 9422, a 0.4% increase. Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 30.53% year - on - year, while production decreased by 2.65% [8] Shanghai Copper - Positive macro factors and supply - tightening expectations will support copper prices. With low inventory and high premiums in China, and the approaching peak consumption season, demand is expected to increase. However, high prices may suppress some purchasing intentions [8] Cotton - On the night of September 2, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 189 lots [9] Iron Ore - On September 2, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%. Global shipments have reached a high for the year, and arrivals have increased. Short - term prices are in a fluctuating trend due to production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] Asphalt - On September 2, the main contract of asphalt 2510 fluctuated and rose 1.17%, closing at 3551 yuan. The capacity utilization rate has decreased, inventory reduction is slow, and with the approaching peak demand season, prices are expected to fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 2, the log futures contract 2511 opened at 820, closed at 810.5, and increased in positions by 755 lots. The price broke below the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to factors such as peak - season prices, imports, and inventory [9][10][11] Steel Products - On September 2, rb2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3298 yuan/ton. The market lacks strong macro - drivers, and the fundamentals are weak, which may continue to suppress prices [11] Alumina - On September 2, ao2601 closed at 3022 yuan/ton. Some domestic enterprises are under maintenance, and production and operating rates have slightly declined, but the supply is still relatively loose, and the market may continue to be weak [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 2, al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is favorable, but the peak - season expectations have not been realized. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is in a range - bound trend [12]