客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（12 月 23 日） A 股三大指数集体红盘报收，沪指涨 0.07%，收报 3919.98 点；深证成 指涨 0.27%，收报 13368.99 点；创业板指涨 0.41%，收报 3205.01 点。沪深两市成交额达到 18998 亿，较昨日小 幅放量 379 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 23 日窄幅震荡。收盘 4620.73，环比上涨 9.11。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 23 日焦炭加权指数维窄幅整理，收盘价 1719.3，环比上涨 9.3。 12 月 23 日焦煤加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1113.7 元，环比上涨 25.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭第三轮提降全面落地，焦化利润一般，日产略微下降。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需采 购，贸易商采购意愿一般。 焦煤：年末部分煤矿因安全生产及年度生产任务已完成等因素，存在减产停产。炼焦煤矿产量略微下降，现 货竞拍成交尚可，成交价格略微抬升，终端库存增加。炼焦煤总库存小幅增加，产端库存小幅增 ...

Group 1: Market Performance on December 22, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to 13332.73, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% to 3191.98. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1861.9 billion yuan, an increase of 136 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4611.62, a rise of 43.45 [2] - Coal futures: The coke weighted index maintained strength, closing at 1717.3, a rise of 24.4; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1098.1 yuan, a rise of 6.1 [2][3] - Other futures: The closing prices and changes of various futures on December 22 are as follows: Zheng sugar 2605 contract, palm oil P2605, Shanghai copper CU2602, cotton, iron ore 2605, asphalt 2605, log 2603, steel rb2605 and hc2605, alumina ao2601, and Shanghai aluminum al2602 [1][2][3][4][6][8] Group 2: Factors Affecting Futures Prices - Coke and coking coal: For coke, after the previous sharp price drop, downstream increased the procurement of cost-effective raw coal, and news such as "anti-involution" in China and Indonesia's export tax boosted market sentiment in the short term; for coking coal, the overall supply in the producing areas continued to shrink, and the high volume of Mongolian coal clearance and rising port inventory brought pressure to domestic coal [4] - Zheng sugar: Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar, the decline in imports in November, and the increase in spot quotes, short positions were closed, pushing the Zheng sugar 2605 contract to rise [4] - Rubber: Due to a large short-term decline, affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly lower on Monday; at night, supported by short covering, it fluctuated slightly higher [4] - Soybean meal: Internationally, factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the price of US soybeans; domestically, the supply of soybeans was abundant, and the supply pressure of soybean meal was significant [4][6] - Pig: The supply of live pigs remained high, while the demand showed marginal improvement, and the increase in consumption demand boosted pig prices to some extent [6] - Palm oil: Affected by the warming of the external crude oil and the overall oil market, palm oil rebounded rapidly from a low level; the production in Malaysia decreased, while exports increased [6] - Shanghai copper: The decline in copper ore processing fees, the expansion of smelting losses, and the weakening of the US dollar and rising interest rate cut expectations supported the price increase [6] - Iron ore: The supply increased while the demand decreased, and the price fluctuated in the short term [6] - Asphalt: Supply increased, inventory decreased slightly, demand in the off-season continued to shrink, and the price fluctuated [6] - Log: There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and subsequent attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [8] - Steel: The supply - demand situation was weak, but due to cost support, the price might fluctuate upward [8] - Alumina: Although production decreased slightly due to maintenance, the overall supply was still in excess, and inventory accumulation put pressure on prices [8] - Shanghai aluminum: The production was stable, inventory continued to accumulate, and demand showed regional differences [8] Group 3: Future Focus - Soybean meal: Focus on extreme weather changes in South America and soybean arrivals [6] - Pig: Pay attention to the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6] - Iron ore: Follow the return of year - end funds, inventory changes, and macro - policy trends [6] - Log: Monitor spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [8]

品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五 （12 月 19 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.36%，收报 3890.45 点； 深证成指涨 0.66%，收报 13140.21 点；创业板指涨 0.49%，收报 3122.24 点。沪深两市成交额 17259 亿，较昨日 放量 704 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 19 日震荡整理。收盘 4568.18，环比上涨 15.38。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 19 日焦炭加权指数强势依旧，收盘价 1702.6，环比上涨 34.0。 12 月 19 日焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1089.9 元，环比下跌 0.9。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 星期一 焦炭：二轮降价落地，且有三轮提降预期。因入炉煤成本下行，即期焦化利润修复。库存，终端主动控制原 料采购节奏，上游矿山库存有小幅累库。中央经济工作会议释放多个重要信息，深入整治"内卷式"竞争、着力 稳定房地产市场。需求，终端钢厂利润承压，铁水持续减产。 焦炭现货，日照港准一焦炭（湿熄）仓单 1591 元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 18, 2025 - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to 3876.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the Chi - Next Index dropped 2.17% to 3107.06 points, with a turnover of 1655.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 155.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.79, down 27.08 [2] 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index was strong, closing at 1697.5, up 89.8. Spot supply increased slightly, and steel mills' coke inventory rose significantly. As of December 11, 45 sample steel mills' coke inventory was 231.6 million tons, up 9.5% from mid - November. Steel mills' consumption decreased due to more blast furnace overhauls and declining hot metal production [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index was trending stronger, closing at 1107.4 yuan, up 62.5. As of December 15, the price had dropped by over 200 yuan/ton. Coking plants' profit margins increased, but they faced inventory pressure due to weak seasonal demand from steel mills and tight railway transportation at the end of the year [3][5] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract declined on December 18. The US Department of Agriculture predicted that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season would increase by 8.3 million tons (4.6%) to 1.89318 billion tons, consumption would increase by 1.1% to a record 1.77921 billion tons, and the ending inventory would decline by 2.9% to 41.188 million tons [5][6] 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai Rubber futures closed slightly lower on December 18. Thailand's southern rainfall was forecast to decrease from December 17 - 23, and the spot price in Southeast Asia declined. Tire factories'开工 rate decreased, with semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization at 70.01% (down 0.13 percentage points month - on - month and 8.67 percentage points year - on - year) and full - steel tire sample enterprises' at 63.61% (down 0.94 percentage points month - on - month and up 3.72 percentage points year - on - year) [6] 2.4 Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans continued to weaken. As of November 27, US soybean export sales were 1.116 million tons. Brazil's soybean planting was almost finished with good weather. Brazil's December soybean export was expected to be 3.57 million tons. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2747 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The supply of imported soybeans was abundant, and the soybean meal inventory was high [6] 2.5 Live Pigs - The LH2603 main contract closed at 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The supply of live pigs was abundant due to high slaughtering willingness. With the approaching of the southwest curing peak, short - term consumption demand increased [6] 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rebounded on December 18 but faced strong resistance. Malaysia lowered its January reference price of crude palm oil and the export tariff to 9.5% [6][7] 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai Copper futures oscillated at a high level on December 18. The supply side had low copper concentrate processing fees and limited increase in smelting production, while the demand side was affected by high prices, with social inventory accumulating slightly [7] 2.8 Cotton - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13965 yuan/ton at night on December 18. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton in November 2025, up 9.4% year - on - year, and 890,000 tons from January - November, down 64% year - on - year [7] 2.9 Iron Ore - The Iron Ore 2605 main contract rose 1.63% to 777.5 yuan on December 18. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, with the iron ore market in a supply - increase and demand - weak pattern [7] 2.10 Asphalt - The Asphalt 2602 main contract rose 0.68% to 2952 yuan on December 18. The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the market was in a supply - demand double - weak pattern [7] 2.11 Logs - The Logs 2603 main contract closed at 778 on December 18. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to spot - end support, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7][8] 2.12 Steel - On December 18, rb2605 was at 3125 yuan/ton and hc2605 was at 3277 yuan/ton. The coking coal production rebounded, and the steel market was in a weak balance in the off - season. With the rebound of raw material prices, steel prices were expected to oscillate slightly stronger [8] 2.13 Alumina - The ao2601 contract was at 2553 yuan/ton on December 18. The alumina market had a supply surplus, and the inventory was at a high level. Some producers' maintenance or exit led to a technical rebound in futures prices, but the overall trend was still weak [9] 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - The al2602 contract was at 21955 yuan/ton on December 18. High prices suppressed terminal demand, and the actual spot trading was insufficient. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at a historical low due to transportation problems in the northwest [9] 3. Investment Suggestions - For soybean meal, track South American weather and soybean arrival volume [6] - For live pigs, focus on the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughtering rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of curing consumption [6] - For logs, pay attention to spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 17, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.19% to 3870.28, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.40% to 13224.51, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.39% to 3175.91. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1811.1 billion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4579.88, a rise of 82.32 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1610.9, a rise of 18.5 [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index closed at 1045.1 yuan, a rise of 4.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar (2605 contract): Oscillated and slightly declined during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Rubber: Oscillated upward during the day and slightly rose at night [4]. - Soybean Meal (M2605 contract): Closed at 2756 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.76% [5]. - Live Pigs (LH2603 contract): Closed at 11435 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.75% [5]. - Palm Oil (P2605 contract): Closed at 8342, a decline of 0.81% [5]. - Shanghai Copper (2602 contract): Closed at 92820, showing a strong - oscillating pattern [5]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13955 yuan/ton [5]. - Iron Ore (2605 contract): Rose 1.25% to 768 yuan [6]. - Asphalt (2602 contract): Rose 3.58% to 3012 yuan [6]. - Logs (2603 contract): Opened at 771.5, closed at 769, with an increase of 1218 lots in positions [6]. - Alumina (ao2601): Closed at 2558 yuan/ton [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum (al2602): Closed at 21915 yuan/ton [6]. - Steel (rb2605 and hc2605): Closed at 3084 yuan/ton and 3245 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 2. Price - related Information and Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Inventory increased by 14.23%. The short - term demand negative effect of steel export license management has been priced in. Although "industrial regulation" was mentioned, there is limited space for large - scale production cuts. Import coal has obvious incremental expectations, and the short - term winter storage expectation is pessimistic [4]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing. Demand may decline with the weakening of molten iron (molten iron decreased by 3.10 tons). Inventory is accumulating, and the inventory of mine clean coal increased by 3.36%. The price of some types of coking coal and coke has changed:临汾 low - sulfur main coking coal is 1500 yuan/ton (unchanged),乌海 1/3 coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton (+30),临汾 first - grade metallurgical coke is 1805 yuan/ton (-55), and Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1735 yuan/ton (-55) [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the second half of November was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. The French Ministry of Agriculture raised the 2025 beet production forecast to 35.55 million tons, a 9.1% increase from last year [4]. Rubber - Affected by the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, the spot price in Southeast Asia rose, and Shanghai rubber oscillated upward [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly. Brazilian soybeans are in the growth season with favorable weather. Brazil's December soybean export is expected to be 357 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good condition. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, but the extension of customs clearance time eases the supply pressure. Brazilian soybean's good harvest prospects weaken US soybean export demand, and the upward driving force of soybean meal is insufficient [5]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant due to the strong slaughter intention of farmers. The end - of - year concentrated slaughter pressure still exists. However, with the approaching of the pickling peak in Southwest China, the consumption demand has increased in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - The price of palm oil futures continued to decline. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 15 increased by 30.39% compared with the same period last month [5]. Copper - The US non - farm data boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, creating a warm market atmosphere. However, the downstream copper consumption is weak, and the opening rate remains low, but the mine end provides strong support [5]. Iron Ore - The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume rebounded, the port inventory accumulated, and the molten iron production decreased. The iron ore market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is in an oscillatory trend [6]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction slowed down, and the demand in the off - season weakened. The asphalt market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is oscillating [6]. Logs - There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, and the import window is open, while the demand growth is limited. The supply pressure exists, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising. The demand at the end of the year has limited short - term impact on the market, but the spot trading atmosphere is warm [6]. Aluminum - The supply is stable, the downstream aluminum water consumption capacity is okay, but the inventory in production areas is accumulating, and the social inventory is low. The demand is weak, and the spot performance is poor, but some downstream industries have stable demand [6]. Steel - The steel market in the off - season is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Traders are reducing inventory, and downstream terminals are purchasing as needed. The cost provides some support for steel prices [6].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二 （12 月 16 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 1.11%，收报 3824.81 点； 深证成指跌 1.51%，收报 12914.67 点；创业板指跌 2.10%，收报 3071.76 点。沪深两市成交额 17242 亿，较昨日 缩量 493 亿。 焦煤：临近年底，产地因年度生产任务完成、井下工作面等因素制约，供应延续偏紧格局，蒙煤三大口岸通 关放量。需求，现货大跌后，下游对高性价比原料煤适当增加采购，但焦炭继续提降，下游需求释放有限。（数 据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】受累于供应增加前景美糖周一震荡下跌。受美糖走低与现货报价下调等因素制约空头打压郑糖 2605 月合约周二大幅下行。因短线跌幅较大受技术面影响郑糖 2605 月合约夜盘震荡休整。印度全国合作制糖厂联合 会周一公布的数据显示，2025-26 榨季迄今（截止 12 月 15 日），印度糖产量同比增加 28.33%，达 7,790 万吨。 巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西 12 月前两周出口糖 1,600,790. ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 15, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.10% to 13112.09 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.77% to 3137.80 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1773.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 318.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4552.06, a decrease of 28.89 from the previous day [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: The weighted index of coke rebounded strongly, closing at 1589.2, up 14.3 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal rebounded from oversold levels, closing at 1040.0 yuan, up 31.3 from the previous day [2][3] 2. Futures Market Analysis Coking Coal and Coke - Price Influencing Factors: Large steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of price cuts was basically completed. The spot market sentiment stabilized, but the steel mills' procurement willingness did not recover. Recently, coke enterprises in the northern main production areas received environmental protection restrictions, and the production load of coke ovens is expected to decline. The daily output of molten iron decreased seasonally, and the start - up of coke enterprises was restricted by environmental protection, so the rigid demand for coking coal gradually declined. The enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises for raw material inventory was not high, and the pit - mouth transactions were still sluggish. The winter storage had not started, but the daily output of raw coal in mines was also declining, so the supply pressure did not increase significantly [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Market Trend: Although the US sugar rebounded last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract did not follow. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot price and short - selling pressure, the contract oscillated and declined on Monday and in the night session. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that the sugarcane planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 9.39843 million hectares, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month's estimate and an increase of 1.9% from the previous year. The sugarcane output was estimated to be 697.015577 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month's estimate and a decrease of 1.4% from the previous year [4] Rubber - Market Influencing Factors: The Thai Rubber Authority announced an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote rubber price stability measures. The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November 2025 was 1.57, above the warning line. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08% from the previous period. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber oscillated on Monday, and the varieties rose and fell. In the night session, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher [4] Palm Oil - Market Performance: On December 15, palm oil continued last week's weak consolidation. The main contract P2605 closed with a doji star, with the highest price of 8550, the lowest price of 8442, and the closing price of 8492, a decrease of 0.70% from the previous day. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from December 1 - 15 was 587,657 tons, a decrease of 16.37% from the same period last month [6] Soybean Meal - International Market: Due to concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand and the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, the CBOT soybeans were weak on Monday. Brazilian soybeans have basically completed sowing and entered the growing season, and the weather is generally favorable for crop growth. The early - maturing soybeans in Brazil will enter the harvest period in mid - January. Multiple institutions estimate that its output will still be in the historical high range of over 175 million tons. In Argentina, 97% of the sown soybeans are in normal or good growth, and the soil moisture is suitable. The US Department of Agriculture estimated the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the December supply - demand report to be 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November [6] - Domestic Market: On December 15, the main contract M2605 closed at 2752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and oil mills maintain a high crushing rate, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. However, the news of the extended customs clearance time of imported soybeans has fermented, and feed and breeding enterprises need to stock up in advance for the upcoming peak demand season, which eases the supply pressure of soybean meal and boosts the spot price. The high - yield prospect of Brazilian soybeans weakens the export demand of US soybeans, and the domestic supply pressure is concentrated on the far - month contracts. Affected by the US soybean market hitting a 7 - week low, the domestic soybean meal futures market was under pressure and declined [6] Live Pigs - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%. The enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter is high. Large - scale pig enterprises have the expectation of increasing sales at the end of the year to complete the annual plan. The slaughter willingness of retail farmers and secondary fattening households has also increased. The market supply of live pigs is continuously abundant, which directly and continuously suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the pressure of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year still exists, and the pattern of loose supply is difficult to improve quickly. The domestic temperature has gradually decreased, which has promoted the marginal improvement of pork consumption. The traditional pickling cycle in the southwest region has officially started, and the demand for pickled pork and sausage has increased. The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly compared with the previous period, providing certain demand support. However, the current consumption recovery is still relatively mild, and there has not been a large - scale concentrated procurement phenomenon, which is difficult to form the core driving force for price increase. The live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [6] Shanghai Copper - Market Performance: The main contract 2601 of Shanghai copper closed at 92,490 yuan/ton. The main continuous contract opened at 93,500 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 94,360 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 90,750 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 92,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1680 yuan from the previous settlement price. The trading volume of the main contract increased to 228,700 lots, and the open interest increased by 31,200 lots to 219,800 lots. The trading volume of the main continuous contract was 183,400 lots, and the open interest was 165,800 lots. Due to the cooling of the macro - market preference, the wavering of the Fed's policy, and the decline of global stock markets, the concern spread to the metal market and dragged down the copper price. On the other hand, December 15 was the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2512 contract, and the 2025 long - term contracts were basically completed. The trade activity declined, and the downstream procurement was weak due to the high copper price, which further affected the trend of Shanghai copper [8] Iron Ore - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2605 of iron ore oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.92% and a closing price of 753 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased month - on - month, the arrival volume continued to decline month - on - month, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand decreased in the off - season, the decline of molten iron output further expanded, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 15, the main contract 2602 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.54% and a closing price of 2963 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the northern region was flat, and the terminal demand in the southern region was weak. It was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [8] Logs - Market Performance: The log 2601 contract opened at 753.5 on Monday, with the lowest price of 751, the highest price of 765, and closed at 753.5, with a daily reduction of 2234 lots. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9] Cotton - Market Performance: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,020 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday. The cotton inventory increased by 57 lots from the previous trading day. The area control target for the target price of Xinjiang cotton in the 2026/27 season was set at about 36 million mu, a reduction of 5 - 7 million mu or more than 10% from the actual sown area of 41 - 43 million mu in 2025. Xinjiang's cotton planting will undergo a strong structural adjustment [9] Steel - Market Performance: On December 15, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3233 yuan/ton. After the central important meeting, multiple departments have intensively deployed key tasks for 2026, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize through multiple measures and comprehensively rectifying "involution - style" competition. Incremental policies will be introduced and implemented according to the situation next year. The macro - policy still has room for action, which helps to stabilize market sentiment. The coking coal futures rebounded sharply on Monday, providing certain support for steel prices from the cost side. However, the pressure on the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market is gradually increasing. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. In the short term, steel prices will be adjusted narrowly [9] Alumina - Market Performance: On December 15, ao2601 closed at 2537 yuan/ton. After the futures price fell below 2500 yuan/ton, it rebounded quickly, and a large number of short - position funds took profits. The current futures price has fallen below the industry's average cash cost line, and the inventory of the entire industrial chain has climbed to a historical peak. Some production enterprises are carrying out maintenance, and some downstream enterprises said they will increase raw material reserves at an appropriate time. Against the background of industry production losses, high - cost production capacity is gradually withdrawing [10] Shanghai Aluminum - Market Performance: On December 15, al2602 closed at 21,920 yuan/ton. Although the macro - level is full of positive atmosphere, it cannot offset the suppression of the fundamentals and capital side in the short term. Domestically, the central economic work conference made it clear that the proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented next year. Overseas, due to the unclear inflation trend and the strength of the labor market, the market faces uncertainty about the direction of the US monetary policy next year. In terms of supply, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 44.39 million tons, and the operating capacity has increased slightly under high profits, with little overall change. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional consumption off - season, the consumption resilience of industries such as automobiles, electricity, and electronics is strong, and there has been no over - seasonal weakening. The proportion of molten aluminum has also remained high [10]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, the A - share market showed a mixed performance across different sectors. Some sectors like stock index futures rose, while others such as coke, coal, and some commodities faced downward pressure. The market is influenced by various factors including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and external news [1][2][3]. - Different commodities are in different supply - demand situations. For example, the soybean market has abundant supply in the short - term but faces long - term supply pressure; the pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand; and the copper market has support from macro and supply - demand factors but also faces callback risks [5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 12, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.97% to 3194.36 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2092.2 billion yuan, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4580.95, a rise of 28.77 compared to the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 12, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1548.6, a decrease of 51.0 compared to the previous day. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 999.7 yuan, a decrease of 34.5 compared to the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the first - round reduction of spot purchase prices has been implemented, supply is stable, but demand may weaken due to potential steel mill production cuts. The second - round price reduction has started, and coking enterprises maintain high production due to improved profitability. For coking coal, affected by Mongolia's plan to increase coal exports next year, it dropped significantly on the 11th. The supply is tight, but the Mongolian coal port's customs clearance has recovered to a high level, and the market trading sentiment is cold [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of short - term technical indicators, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing up the US sugar price on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly higher. As of the week ending November 18, speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,860 lots to 201,910 lots [4]. Rubber - Affected by Thailand's rubber price - stabilizing measures, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Friday. As of December 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 12324 tons to 105542 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 11460 tons to 56990 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 604 tons to 61689 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2218 tons to 59573 tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - Multiple institutions estimate that the soybean production in South America is still at a historically high level. The sowing of Argentine soybeans is 58% complete, and the crop quality is fair. The US Department of Agriculture estimates Brazil's and Argentina's soybean production at 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November. - On December 12, the M2605 main contract of domestic bean meal closed at 2770 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.73%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil mills have a high crushing volume. However, the extension of customs clearance time and the pre - holiday stocking of feed enterprises have relieved the supply pressure of bean meal. The bean meal futures show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [5]. Live Pigs - On December 12, the LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11325 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.94%. The supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, which suppresses the futures price. Although the consumption of pork has improved marginally due to the drop in temperature and the start of the traditional curing season in the southwest region, the current consumption recovery is still mild, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. Shanghai Copper - On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of rising during the day and falling sharply at night, with a slight overall increase. The highest price was 94360 yuan/ton, and it closed at 91550 yuan/ton at night. Short - term macro - economic easing and supply - demand balance support the copper price, but high prices may suppress downstream demand and lead to profit - taking and callback risks [6]. Iron Ore - On December 12, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.33% to 760.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore increased, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season decreased, and the iron water production decreased further. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On December 12, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.34% to 2962 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the north was flat, and the terminal demand in the south was weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On Friday, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 747.5, with the lowest price of 743.5, the highest price of 750, and closed at 749, with an increase of 10 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged compared to the previous day, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7][8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13905 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 142 lots compared to the previous day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [8]. Steel - The Central Economic Work Conference released positive macro - policy signals, which are conducive to market stability. However, the steel market is currently dominated by fundamentals. On the 12th, cold wave, snowstorm, and gale warnings were issued, and the demand for steel in the off - season further weakened. In the short term, the demand contraction may be greater than the supply, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the steel price shows a weak and volatile trend [8]. Alumina - As the pre - Spring Festival transportation capacity decreases and the delivery warehouse releases expired warehouse receipts, holders' inventory and sales pressure increase, leading to low - price sales. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises have sufficient raw material inventory, and although short - term production cuts may drive the price up, it is difficult to pass on the price increase to the end - market. The overall supply of ore is increasing, and the price is in a downward process. The alumina market has a supply - demand mismatch, the social inventory is accumulating, and the cost - side support is weakening [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. The transportation in the northwest is restricted, and the arrival at the consumption area is normal. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, the aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. The current market is more affected by macro - expectations, with macro - factors being positive and fundamentals having both long and short factors [8].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（12 月 11 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.70%，收报 3873.32 点；深 证成指跌 1.27%，收报 13147.39 点；创业板指跌 1.41%，收报 3163.67 点。沪深两市成交额达到 18571 亿，较昨 日放量 786 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 11 日弱势。收盘 4552.19，环比下跌 39.64。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 11 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价 1568.8，环比下跌 44.6。 12 月 11 日，焦煤加权指数弱势运行，收盘价 1008.9 元，环比下跌 45.9。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 客服产品系列•日评 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：现货采购价格第一轮下调落地，焦化企业开工稳定，焦炭供应量平稳；因高炉利润持续压缩，钢厂减 产力度或将加大，对焦炭的需求或将转弱。 焦煤：安检督查对主产地煤矿生产的影响在减弱，国产焦煤产量环比持续回升，进口煤增量明显，供 ...

12 月 10 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1040.2 元，环比下跌 15.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：供应维持增长，焦炭利润修复带动产量回升，短期钢厂打压意愿偏强。存在跟随铁水疲软而下滑，铁 水下跌 2.38 万吨，库存维持累库，焦厂焦炭库存累库 6.25%。供需压力延续，库存持续大幅累库。此外截止 12 月 7 日，仅两家钢厂发布冬储政策，考虑到参与冬储的钢厂数量累积和落地时间，预期冬储驱动或将延后到 12 月下旬。 焦煤：临汾低硫主焦煤 1500 元/吨（0），乌海 1/3 焦煤 1080 元/吨（0），临汾一级冶金焦 1860 元/吨(0）， 日照准一级冶金焦 1790 元/吨（0）。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 10 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.23%，收报 3900.50 点； 深证成指涨 0.29%，收报 13316.42 点；创业板指跌 0.02%，收报 3209.00 点。沪深两市成交额 17785 亿，较昨日 缩量 1 ...