Report Summary on February 4, 2026 1. Market Performance on February 3, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% to 4067.74, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.19% to 14127.11, and ChiNext Index up 1.86% to 3324.89. The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 25,658 billion yuan, a decrease of 411 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 index stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 4660.11, up 54.13 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1718.7, down 2.2. The first - round price increase was fully implemented, with general coking profits, slightly decreased daily production, and a small increase in inventory. Traders' purchasing willingness may improve [2][4]. - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index of coking coal had an interval consolidation, closing at 1176.6 yuan, down 2.1. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 913 vehicles. Coking coal mine output slightly increased, but spot auction transactions gradually declined. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory of coking coal rose sharply [3][4]. 2.2 Sugar - The US sugar had a slight decline after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on February 3 due to lower spot prices and rose slightly at night. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, a 18.35% increase from the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a slight increase after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons and continued to rise at night driven by the stabilization and rebound of the non - ferrous metal market. As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 59.17 million tons, a 1.23% increase from the previous period [4]. 2.4 Soybean and Bean Meal - Brazilian soybean is in the early harvest period, and institutions have raised the production outlook. Stonex expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 181.6 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the January forecast. The domestic bean meal 2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.84%. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the downstream demand is declining, with inventory accumulating again. As of the end of the 54th week of 2026, the bean meal inventory was 94.7 million tons, an increase of 4.02 million tons from the previous week [6]. 2.5 Livestock (Pig) - The main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.3%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter window is narrowing, and farmers may sell pigs in advance, increasing the supply. The pre - festival demand provides limited support. In the medium term, the high inventory of sows and piglet replenishment will ensure future supply, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil market continued to fluctuate weakly after a high - level decline on February 3, with the decline easing. The main contract P2605 closed at 9094, up 0.89%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31, 2026, were 1.375718 million tons, a 14.89% increase from the previous month. As of January 30, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 70.14 million tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week and a 43.00% increase from the same period last year [6]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a deep V - shaped reversal. Driven by policy support (expanding strategic copper reserves), a weak US dollar, and rising LME copper prices, the market sentiment improved. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum al2603 closed at 23,035 yuan/ton on February 3. The market is evaluating the new Fed chairman candidate's monetary policy, which is currently bearish for the metal market. The supply is stable, and the social inventory is high. The demand is improving slightly, but the negative feedback from small and medium - sized factories is strengthening [7]. 2.8 Other Commodities - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 fell 1.14% to 777.5 yuan on February 3. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic arrival volume also increased slightly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the short - term price will fluctuate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan on February 3. The refinery's production plan in February decreased slightly, and the market demand was weak in the off - season, so the price will fluctuate [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,660 yuan/ton at night on February 3. The inventory increased by 75 lots. Textile enterprises' pre - festival replenishment willingness is low, and about 80% of the US cotton - producing areas are in drought as of January 27 [7]. - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 closed at 801 on February 3, with a decrease of 169 lots. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The port's coniferous log inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3265 yuan/ton on February 3. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the market activity is low. The steel price will fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2809 yuan/ton on February 3. Some alumina plants in Shanxi, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Henan have reduced production, which supports the futures price to some extent. However, the overall oversupply situation remains, and the price is under pressure [7].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 2, 2026 - A-shares tumbled: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.48% to 4015.75, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69% to 13824.35, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.46% to 3264.11. The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 2606.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Indexes and commodities: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4605.98, down 100.36. The coke weighted index closed at 1683.5, down 58.6, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1151.8 yuan, down 31.7 [2][3]. 2. Futures Market Analysis a. Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: Coke enterprises'开工 declined, and inventory increased significantly due to winter storage. The demand side saw an increase in blast furnace 开工 but a decrease in molten iron production. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. Supply contracted, and pre - holiday winter storage was nearing its end [4]. - Coking coal: The 开工 of coal washing plants and mines decreased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume declined from its high. Total coking coal inventory increased. The demand side, including coke enterprises' load and molten iron production, continued to decline. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal was reported at 1390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1305 yuan/ton on the futures market [4]. b. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Friday, the drop in crude oil prices, and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward on Monday. Green Pool predicted that the global sugar market surplus in 2026/27 would shrink to 156,000 tons from 2.74 million tons in 2025/26, mainly due to a decrease in production [4]. c. Rubber - Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices and the stock market crash, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated sharply downward on Monday. In 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) were 2.669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. The total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 4.422 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [4]. d. Palm Oil - On February 2, affected by macro - funds sentiment, the commodity market dropped significantly, and the palm oil market also declined from its high. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9014, down 2.45% from the previous trading day [5]. e. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined slightly on February 2. The strong US dollar weakened US export competitiveness. Brazil's soybean harvest was in its early stage with normal weather. As of January 24, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 6.6%, higher than 3.2% in the same period last year. Stonex predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach a record - high of 181.6 million tons. Domestically, the soybean meal main contract 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton, down 0.61%. Domestic imported soybean supply was abundant, and pre - holiday stocking was nearing its end. The soybean meal futures price lacked upward momentum [5]. f. Live Hogs - On February 2, the live hog main contract LH2603 closed at 11220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Before the Spring Festival, the window for live hog slaughter was narrowing, and the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises increased. The market's price - support mentality weakened, and the supply pressure before the festival increased. The demand side was supported by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase was limited. In the medium - term, the market's supply - exceeding - demand situation was difficult to change [5]. g. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper futures tumbled. The main contract 2603 closed at 98580 yuan/ton. The core reasons included profit - taking by long - position holders, the rebound of the US dollar, warnings of supply surplus, and increased market caution [5]. h. Iron Ore - On February 2, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated downward, with a decline of 1.26% to 783 yuan. The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, while domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [5]. i. Asphalt - On February 2, the asphalt 2603 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 4.87% to 3299 yuan. In February, refinery production decreased slightly, and the market was in the off - season with weak demand. The asphalt price was in an oscillating state in the short term [5]. j. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14635 yuan/ton at night on February 2. Cotton inventory increased by 36 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises purchased on a just - in - time basis [6]. k. Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 805, closed at 795, and decreased its positions by 1052 lots. The port's softwood log inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks. The spot price of some logs increased slightly [6]. l. Steel - On February 2, the rb2605 contract closed at 3098 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3261 yuan/ton. Steel demand continued to contract, and the supply - demand pressure before the festival increased. The raw material price decreased, and the inventory of social warehouses increased. Steel prices may have a weak and narrow - range adjustment in the short term [6]. m. Alumina - On February 2, the ao2605 contract closed at 2772 yuan/ton. The cost of bauxite decreased, and inventory accumulated before the Spring Festival. The downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum was weak. The alumina price may maintain an oscillating and weak trend in the short term [6]. n. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 2, the al2603 contract closed at 23035 yuan/ton. The market was cautious about the potential new Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions eased, and the non - ferrous metals market continued to decline. The supply was stable, inventory was high, and demand showed only slight improvement [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 30, the A-share market showed a mixed trend with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27%, and the trading volume decreased by 397 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The prices of various futures products, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, etc., were affected by different factors such as market supply - demand, international production, and macro - market sentiment [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3346.36, up 1.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.8627 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on January 30, closing at 4706.34, a decrease of 47.53 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 30, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1723.6, up 21.3 from the previous day [2] - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation on January 30, closing at 1163.8 yuan, up 14.7 from the previous day [3] - The first - round increase in coke prices has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. The iron - water production decreased slightly this period, and the export volume in December increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4] - The output of sample mines of coking coal declined, the port inventory of Mongolian coal was about 4 million tons with high pressure, and China's annual import of coking coal in 2025 decreased year - on - year [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Indian Sugar Trade Association expects India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season to increase by 13% to 29.6 million tons, but the export volume will still be below the quota of 800,000 tons. Affected by this, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures declined [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined on January 30. The inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber changed accordingly [4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, Argentina's soybean crops are facing a potential yield reduction due to high - temperature drought, while Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the USDA expects a high - yield of 178 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal price is under pressure, and the futures price lacks a continuous upward drive [5] Live Pigs - On January 30, the live - pig futures contract LH2603 closed at 11,220 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change [5] Shanghai Copper - On January 30, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2603 closed at 103,680 yuan/ton. The market was affected by factors such as short - selling by the top 20 short - position holders, weak downstream procurement, and pre - festival risk aversion [5] Iron Ore - On January 30, the iron - ore futures contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 791.5 yuan. With an increase in Australian and Brazilian iron - ore supply, a decrease in domestic arrivals, and slow pre - festival restocking by steel mills, the iron - ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On January 30, the asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 0.38% at 3424 yuan. In February, the refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and the price is in a volatile state supported by cost [5] Logs - The logs futures contract 2603 opened at 789, closed at 798 on January 30, with a decrease of 125 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [5][6][7] Cotton - On January 30, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,770 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 46 lots. As of January 29, the cotton procurement rate was 99%, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [7] Steel - Before the Spring Festival, steel prices fluctuated slightly due to a lack of industrial contradictions and weak speculative demand. After the Spring Festival, the market still faces pressure, but policy expectations may provide some support [7] Alumina - The supply of alumina may decrease slightly during the holiday due to production shutdowns and maintenance, while the demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum production capacity stays high [7] Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of Shanghai aluminum remains stable as the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is good and production capacity is high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season and pre - holiday factors, and social inventory is increasing [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 29, 2026, the A - share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.30% and 0.57% respectively. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 325.97 billion yuan, an increase of 267.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends on January 29, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, international market conditions, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.30%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3304.51, down 0.57%. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges reached 325.97 billion yuan, an increase of 267.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4753.87, up 35.88 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index was strong on January 29, closing at 1725.5, up 53.5. Supply is stable, and after the fourth round of price cuts, coking plants are in continuous loss. Steel mills' profitability is improving, and coal price increases have led coking plants to propose the first - round price increase, which steel mills are expected to accept by the end of the month. The average daily pig iron output last week was 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons month - on - month. Downstream steel mills have weak sentiment for winter storage, with only 1 - 2 days of inventory space left [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index fluctuated widely on January 29, closing at 1172.8 yuan, up 43.6. The domestic coal mine production is at a high level at the end of January, Mongolian coal customs clearance has slightly decreased, and the import profit of seaborne coal is inverted. The total supply is relatively abundant. The first - stage winter storage of downstream enterprises has basically ended, coal mines have full orders, and the inventory transfer is smooth. The speculation sentiment has declined. The first - round price increase of coke has been postponed until the end of the month [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Due to the increased pre - holiday stocking demand of enterprises, the spot price was raised today. The rise in crude oil prices boosted short - covering, driving the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to rise on Thursday. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for February 2026 is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [4] Rubber - Rubber trees in northern Thailand have started to shed leaves, indicating the approaching end of the tapping season. Rubber production in Vietnam and Cote d'Ivoire has also begun to decline. The low - production period for rubber trees is usually from February to May. Market concerns about supply reduction in major producing countries have emerged. Affected by the sharp increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the rise in crude oil prices, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise at night. In December 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 5.8% year - on - year to 963,319 units, and the annual sales in 2025 increased slightly by 0.8% to about 10.6 million units, still far below the pre - pandemic level [4][5] Palm Oil - On January 29, palm oil futures continued to rise, with the main contract P2605 closing at 9362, up 0.99% from the previous trading day. Although there is a lack of driving factors in the news, the approaching Indian New Year consumption season and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil, along with the reduction of export tariffs, have strengthened the inventory - reduction logic [5] Soybean Meal - International market: On January 29, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1072 cents per bushel, down 0.26%. The weak US dollar has enhanced the export competitiveness of US soybeans, and concerns about the Argentine weather have supported the market. However, the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increasing harvesting pressure have limited the rise of US soybeans. Brazilian soybeans are in the early harvesting stage, and the expected output is estimated to reach 181 million tons. As of last Thursday, the harvesting completion rate was 4.9%, higher than 3.9% in the same period last year [5] - Domestic market: On January 29, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2783 yuan per ton, up 0.72%. Pre - holiday stocking demand has started, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased continuously, with the price remaining in a narrow - range shock. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 41,200 tons. After the Spring Festival, the supply of imported soybeans in China will remain loose, and the soybean meal futures price lacks a continuous upward - driving force [5] Live Pigs - On January 29, the main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11165 yuan per ton, down 0.93%. Recently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises has increased. The price - support sentiment in the market has weakened, and some production capacity originally scheduled for February may be slaughtered ahead of schedule. On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking has started, but the overall demand increase is general. In the medium - term, the supply pressure remains large [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2603 contract soared and broke through the historical high, and the London copper also set a record. Driven by the resonance of macro - factors, supply - demand relationships, and capital, the short - term market sentiment is hot, but downstream buyers are more cautious. The closing price was about 109,110 yuan per ton, with a maximum of 110,970 yuan per ton and a minimum of 102,260 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 453,000 lots, and the open interest was 243,000 lots. The reasons for the rise include supply contraction (mine disturbances in Chile and Indonesia, low TC, smelting production cuts, high invoice points for recycled copper, and restricted transactions), strong demand (driven by energy transformation, AI computing power, and power grid investment, and supported by the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and pre - holiday restocking), macro - economic support (increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weak US dollar), and inventory structure issues (low LME deliverable inventory and a sharp increase in COMEX inventory) [5] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,900 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 34 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises purchase as they use [5] Iron Ore - On January 29, the main iron ore 2605 contract rose by 1.78%, closing at 798.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, the domestic arrival volume has continued to decline, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. Currently, steel mills still have pre - holiday restocking demand, and the pig iron output has slightly increased. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On January 29, the main asphalt 2603 contract rose by 3.39%, closing at 3478 yuan. The refinery production plan for February has decreased slightly, the supply remains at a low level. Affected by the off - season, the shipment volume has decreased month - on - month, and the terminal market procurement is weak. However, the relatively strong crude oil price at the cost end has supported the asphalt price, which shows a volatile trend in the short term [6] Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 775 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 773, a maximum of 790.5, and a closing price of 785, with an increase of 119 lots in open interest. On January 29, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Future attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the impact of macro - economic expectations and market sentiment on prices [6] Steel - On January 29, rb2605 closed at 3157 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan per ton. Due to the intensifying geopolitical tensions, international futures prices of crude oil and metals have risen, driving up domestic commodity futures prices. The first - round price increase of coke will be implemented this Friday, which will continue to support steel prices. However, the restocking of steel mills' raw materials is coming to an end, the pre - holiday steel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand pressure has slightly increased, so the steel price is not likely to rise continuously. In the short term, the steel price may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] Alumina - On January 29, ao2605 closed at 2816 yuan per ton. On the raw material side, the shipment volume of new mines in Guinea has increased, putting pressure on the price of imported ores. On the cost side, the decline in caustic soda prices has weakened the cost support for alumina. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum plants mainly execute long - term contracts and replenish inventory as needed. In the spot market, holders are eager to sell, and there is a phenomenon of chasing up and restocking in the downstream market. The inquiry atmosphere was strong in the morning, but in the afternoon, although the futures price continued to rise and holders raised the price, the market's rigid - demand restocking was basically saturated, and the trading atmosphere cooled down [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 29, al2603 closed at 25,590 yuan per ton. Aluminum plants are operating stably, the production capacity is running well, the aluminum - water ratio has declined slightly, the supply of aluminum ingots is abundant, and the social inventory has accumulated slightly, still remaining at a high level year - on - year. The demand pressure continues to increase, and downstream purchases have further shrunk, but the negative feedback transmission is insufficient. In different fields, there is some pressure in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial material sectors, and the demand for aluminum rods is weak. The processing fee remains weak, and some enterprises have stopped taking orders. The pre - holiday production has continued to decline. The market is paying close attention to geopolitical and metal - related dynamics and is in a wait - and - see mood [6]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 28, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 4151.24, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14342.89, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57% to 3323.56. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2992.6 billion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: It closed at 4717.99, up 12.30 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1686.5, down 2.0 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1142.6 yuan, up 6.1 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward. The price of Brazilian sugar was affected by dry weather, and the spot price limited its upside. At night, it continued to rise due to short - covering [4]. - Rubber: Affected by the expected decrease in spot supply and rising crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher. At night, it oscillated and closed slightly higher due to technical factors [4]. - Palm Oil: The futures contract P2605 closed at 9270, up 0.35%. From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month [6]. - Asphalt: The 2603 contract closed at 3410 yuan, up 3.96%. Refinery supply was low, inventory was slightly accumulated, and prices oscillated due to cost support [8]. 2.2 Agricultural Futures - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.68% to 1074.75 cents per bushel. The domestic M2505 contract rose 0.58% to 2782 yuan/ton. Brazilian harvest pressure and US dollar weakness co - existed. Domestic inventory decreased, and post - holiday supply was expected to be loose [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2603 contract closed at 11270 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Supply pressure increased, and demand support was limited [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14875 yuan/ton at night, and inventory increased by 4 lots [6]. 2.3 Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2603 contract closed at 103060 yuan/ton. It first declined and then rebounded. Volume and open interest decreased. Inventory accumulated, and demand was weak [6]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 contract closed at 783 yuan, down 0.7%. Port inventory increased, and prices oscillated due to pre - holiday restocking demand [8]. - Steel: The rb2605 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3280 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, costs had some support, and prices were expected to adjust narrowly [8]. - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton. The oversupply situation was hard to change in the short term, and prices were expected to oscillate [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 contract closed at 25640 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, inventory increased slightly, and demand pressure increased [8]. 2.4 Log Futures - Logs: The 2603 contract closed at 775.5. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu was stable. Attention should be paid to spot support [6][8]. 3. Market Analysis - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke production was at a low level due to losses, and demand was rigid. Coking coal supply was loose both domestically and abroad, and demand was weak [4]. - Soybean Meal: International market was affected by Brazilian harvest and US dollar. Domestic market had pre - holiday demand and post - holiday supply concerns [6]. - Live Hogs: Supply pressure was high in the medium term, and demand increase during the Spring Festival was limited [6]. - Iron Ore: Port inventory was rising, and prices were oscillating due to pre - holiday restocking [8]. - Steel: Weak demand and high costs led to narrow price adjustments [8]. - Alumina: Oversupply and cost decline limited price increases [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: Supply was stable, and demand pressure was gradually emerging [8].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（1 月 27 日） A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.18%，收报 4139.90 点；深 证成指涨 0.09%，收报 14329.91 点；创业板指涨 0.71%，收报 3342.60 点。沪深京三市成交额 29217 亿，较昨日 缩量 3593 亿。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价下跌，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1460 元/吨，较上期价格跌 10 元/吨。供 应，原料端焦煤价格趋稳，整体煤价仍处高位，焦企利润普遍处于亏损状态，在利润承压下，当前多数焦企维持 前期生产水平。需求，钢材价格震荡运行，终端消费需求下滑，对焦炭需求或进一步减弱，部分钢厂陆续加大检 修力度。 焦煤：山西吕梁地区主焦煤（A10.5、S0.9、G85）上调 57 元至出厂价 1483 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原煤 1040 元/吨，价格涨 24；蒙 3#精煤 1070 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应端，民营煤矿将陆续进入放假状态，煤 矿在保安全的前提下适量生产。需求端，焦炭首 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（1 月 26 日）A 股三大指数集体收跌，沪指跌 0.09%，收报 4132.61 点；深证成指跌 0.85%， 收报 14316.64 点；创业板指跌 0.91%，收报 3319.15 点。沪深京三市成交额达到 32810 亿，较上一交易日放量 1627 亿。 沪深 300 指数 1 月 26 日窄幅震荡。收盘 4706.96，环比上涨 4.47。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 26 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1721.1，环比上涨 7.4。 1 月 26 日焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1166.2 元，环比上涨 15.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：首轮提涨落地预期加强，预计本周落地，幅度为湿熄焦炭上调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭上调 55 元/吨。需 求端本期铁水微增，受制于前期事故影响，铁水复产幅度有所减少。 焦煤：年后煤矿开启复产，样本矿山产量回升，预计年前产量已经见顶。蒙煤方面，口岸成交氛围一般，口 岸库存超 390 万吨。 据海关总署数据显示，截止 ...

客服产品系列•日评 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价平稳，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1450 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应，个 别亏损的焦企有减产计划外，多数焦企开工仍维持正常水平，原料端煤价多数仍处高位，部分煤价小幅下调，焦 炭成本支撑依旧较强。需求，终端消费淡季影响，钢厂出货依旧疲软，钢厂利润不断走低，市场情绪不高，其焦 炭库存多处中高位水平，对高价原料抵触心理增加，部分钢厂采购积极性降低。 焦煤：山西临汾地区主焦原煤（S0.5、G85、回收 35）上调 8 元至出厂价 866 元/吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙 5#原 煤 1015 元/吨，价格跌 3；蒙 3#精煤 1085 元/吨，较上期价格跌 15。供应，主产区煤矿普遍已恢复生产，炼焦 煤供应量逐步回升，下游有一定补库需求，煤矿多无库存压力，下游部分企业补库需求开始减弱，贸易商投机逐 步谨慎。需求，下游暂无减产计划，需求仍有支撑，但部分焦钢企业厂内焦煤库存可用天数逐步回升，焦钢企业 对原料煤采购积极性放缓。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】一项大宗商品研究报告显示，2025/26 年度全球糖产量料达到 1.893 亿吨，较 2024/25 年度的 1.8097 亿 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 22, 2026, the three major A - share indexes closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.50%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends on January 22, and the supply - demand relationships of different products also varied. For example, the supply and demand of coke and coking coal weakened marginally, while the domestic supply - demand of soybean meal was stable but the supply pressure was postponed [4][5]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.50%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3328.65, up 1.01%. The trading volume of the three markets reached 2.7166 trillion yuan, an increase of 92.6 billion yuan from the previous day, and it exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan for the 14th consecutive trading day. The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 4723.71, up 0.64 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 22, the coke weighted index stopped falling and consolidated, closing at 1690.2, up 14.0; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range shock, closing at 1137.6 yuan, up 11.5. The coking capacity is loose, the coke production has decreased due to low profits of coke enterprises, and the real demand for coke has weakened. The domestic coal production of coking coal has increased marginally, the import supply is loose, and the real demand has declined [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the stabilization of US sugar on Wednesday and short - term technical factors, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on January 22. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association reported that in the second half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil was 2.171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.6%, and the sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.9%. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%, and the cumulative sugar production was 40.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [4]. Rubber - Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber rose slightly on January 22. At night, the reduction of the risk of a US - EU trade war also promoted its rise. In December 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. In 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3% [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 22, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1064 cents per bushel, up 0.09% from the previous trading day. Brazilian soybeans are entering the harvest season, and it is expected to dominate global soybean exports in the coming months. Domestically, on January 22, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan/ton, up 1.58%. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined continuously, the soybean meal output has decreased, and the pre - festival stocking demand has recovered, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 948,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 49,600 tons, reaching the lowest level in six months [5]. Live Pigs - On January 22, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. Recently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the supply pressure in the second half of the month has increased. The demand for large pigs in the south has weakened, but the cold wave has boosted pork consumption, and the pre - festival stocking has begun, but the medium - term supply pressure is still large [5]. Palm Oil - On January 22, the palm oil futures price continued to rise, with the daily K - line showing three consecutive positive days, and the price reached a new high since the beginning of the year. The main contract P2605 closed at 8944 yuan, up 1.27%. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 was 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease from the same period last month [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper CU2603 contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling and closing up on January 22, closing at 100,700 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 3.352 million tons. The macro - impact on copper prices was limited. The copper ore supply was tight in the long - term, but there was short - term inventory accumulation in China and weak downstream demand [5]. Iron Ore - On January 22, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed up slightly, with a closing price of 786.5 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil and the domestic arrivals have decreased, the port inventory has continued to increase, and the iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices in a volatile trend [5][6]. Asphalt - On January 22, the asphalt 2603 main contract rose in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 3242 yuan. The overall supply of asphalt refineries is stable, the terminal project construction has decreased due to cold weather, and the short - term asphalt price is in a volatile state [6]. Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 764 on January 22, with a closing price of 768.5, and the number of positions decreased by 870. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and future attention should be paid to spot - end factors [6]. Cotton - On the night of January 22, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,760 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 301 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the cotton basis price rose, higher than in previous years [6]. Steel - On January 22, rb2605 closed at 3124 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3287 yuan/ton. The steel market's pessimistic sentiment has weakened, but the overall situation of weak supply and demand is difficult to change, and the short - term steel price has stopped falling and may fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. Alumina - On January 22, ao2605 closed at 2717 yuan/ton. The raw material prices are expected to decline, the domestic alumina production capacity is high, the downstream demand is weak, and the spot market is inactive [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 22, al2603 closed at 24,055 yuan/ton. The market is concerned about Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum. The supply is normal, the social inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand shows some improvement [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 21, 2026 - A - share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.08% at 4116.94, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.70% at 14255.13, the ChiNext Index up 0.54% at 3295.52, and the STAR 50 Index up 3.53% at 1535.39. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2624 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4723.07, up 4.19 [2] 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - On January 21, the coke weighted - index oscillated weakly, closing at 1685.6, down 10.1; the coking coal weighted - index was weakly sorted, closing at 1135.4 yuan, down 20.8 [2][3] - For coke, coke enterprises'开工 declined, and the total coke inventory was at a low level in the same period; blast furnace 开工 and daily hot - metal output decreased. Mainstream coke enterprises planned to raise prices on January 19, and the negotiation was still ongoing. For coking coal, the supply - side production capacity recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and raw coal inventory accumulated. The steel and coke load on the demand side declined, hot - metal output decreased, coke enterprises' losses expanded, and steel mills' profits increased. The price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1305 yuan/ton on the futures market [4] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the weak performance of the commodity market, US sugar oscillated lower on Tuesday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to oscillate downward on Wednesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by technical factors, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. Brazil exported 1.4366 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first three weeks of January, an increase of 0.1197 million tons or 9.09% compared with the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 130,600 tons [4] 2.3 Rubber - Boosted by factors such as a large short - term decline and the rebound of crude oil, Shanghai rubber oscillated upward on Wednesday. At night, the futures price of Shanghai rubber fluctuated little and closed slightly higher. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, an increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [4] 2.4 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed with a positive K - line, with the highest price of 8850, the lowest price of 8752, and the closing price of 8832, up 0.96% from the previous day. From January 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [5] 2.5 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went low, and turned slightly positive at the end of the session, maintaining a high - level oscillation overall. The main continuous contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton, reached a low of 99,210 yuan/ton during the day, and closed at 101,280 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,420 yuan/ton, a position of 224,000, and a trading volume of 230,300 lots. On the supply side, the processing fee of copper concentrates continued to weaken, the profits of smelters were under pressure, 5 smelters planned to stop production in January, and the commissioning of a new plant was postponed, so the refined copper output was expected to decline month - on - month; the substitution of scrap copper increased, but raw material procurement was cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up before the Spring Festival was weak, the purchase of copper products was insufficient; the terminal sales of new - energy vehicles decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, dragging down the demand expectation; short - term inventory accumulated, and spot sales were sluggish. The short - term weakness of the US dollar provided slight support for copper prices, but the uncertainty of US tariff policies remained [5] 2.6 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,550 yuan/ton on Wednesday night. The cotton inventory decreased by 4 lots compared with the previous trading day. According to the report of China National Cotton Reserves Corporation, the cotton planting area in Brazil reached 40%, and the expected output was 10% less than last year [5] 2.7 Iron Ore - On January 21, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.32% and a closing price of 784 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume both decreased this period, the port inventory continued to accumulate, some steel mills in certain regions were still in the annual maintenance stage, the hot - metal output decreased, and it was in a situation of weak supply and demand. The iron ore price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [5] 2.8 Asphalt - On January 21, the main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.45% and a closing price of 3157 yuan. The asphalt output increased, the inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not large. As the weather cooled down, the market's rigid demand would become dull, and it would mostly turn into stocking demand. The asphalt price showed an oscillating operation in the short term [5] 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 753.5 on Wednesday, with the lowest price of 751.5, the highest price of 767, and closed at 764, with an increase of 43 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot side. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the spot - side price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [5][6] 2.10 Steel - On January 21, rb2605 was reported at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3286 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale cold snap and freezing weather, the trading volume in the steel market had been declining for several days. The enthusiasm for winter stocking this year had weakened. The psychological price for winter stocking of Shandong trading enterprises was 3050 - 3080 yuan/ton (ex - factory). In the situation of weak supply and demand in the steel market, steel prices were under pressure. With the improvement of the weather, the trading volume of low - price resources might increase in the future. Coupled with the front - loaded implementation of fiscal and monetary policies, the market had certain expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, and the decline space of steel prices might be limited. In the short term, the downward trend of steel prices was expected to stabilize [6][7] 2.11 Alumina - On January 21, ao2605 was reported at 2672 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina had increased for two consecutive weeks, and imported goods continued to flow in, so the domestic oversupply situation continued. Although there was a marginal increase in demand, it was difficult to digest the excess supply. At the same time, the spot price of alumina was in a downward channel, and the prices of caustic soda and ore on the cost side were also falling. The weakening cost support reduced enterprises' willingness to cut production. Before the Spring Festival, the supply side would maintain an oversupply pattern. In the spot market, holders accelerated the shipment to recover funds due to concerns about price drops, but downstream enterprises held a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, the inquiry atmosphere in the market was cold, and most only maintained rigid - demand replenishment. The overall trading activity was poor today, and the whole - day trading volume was limited [7] 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 21, al2603 was reported at 24,155 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the newly invested production capacity of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad continued to ramp up, and the daily output increased steadily. On the demand side, there was a structural differentiation. The primary alloy and aluminum plate and foil industries saw a slight increase in the utilization rate due to year - end stocking and the peak consumption season, providing some rigid demand. However, the high price suppression and seasonal off - season effects still existed, the proportion of electrolytic aluminum liquid continued to decline month - on - month, indicating that the overall recovery momentum of terminal consumption was insufficient, and the inventory pressure was further highlighted, with no obvious improvement overall. Although the domestic macro - policy support expectation provided downward support for aluminum prices, the fundamental situation of loose supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation formed a bearish combination. Coupled with the sentiment suppression brought by the risk of Sino - European and Sino - American trade frictions, the short - term upward resistance of aluminum prices was significant [7]