Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 17, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85% to 4049.91, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.87% to 14039.73, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.29% to 3280.06. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 115.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: It closed at 4637.44, a decrease of 34.12 from the previous day [2] 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal and Coke - Coke: The weighted coke index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1749.2, down 8.5. With the end of the Two Sessions, environmental protection warnings were lifted, and coke supply is expected to continue rising. Some steel mills' blast furnaces are gradually resuming production, and rigid demand has rebounded [2][4] - Coking Coal: The weighted coking coal index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1205.8 yuan, down 3.3. After the important meeting, some mines are resuming production, and supply has room for growth. Market sentiment has improved, and downstream coking enterprises are replenishing stocks, increasing trading activity. Some coal prices have risen. For example, the average transaction price of a certain type of coking coal in Shanxi increased by 44 yuan/ton [3][4] 2.2. Sugar - Zhengzhou Sugar: Affected by factors such as the decline in US sugar prices and the reduction in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated lower on Tuesday. At night, it had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline [4] 2.3. Rubber - Shanghai Rubber: It had a stable trend with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline on Tuesday. Due to concerns about high oil prices affecting global economic growth, traders were cautious, and the rubber price oscillated lower at night. As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.42% [4][5] 2.4. Soybean Meal and Related - International Soybeans: On March 17, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1156.5 cents per bushel, up 0.11%. Strong oil prices supported soybean prices, and the US soybean export inspection volume increased by about 45% year - on - year. As of March 12, 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 61%, compared with 51% last week and 70% last year [5] - Domestic Soybean Meal: On March 17, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3070 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. China's soybean imports from January - February decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the arrival volume was lower than expected. However, the impact on domestic soybean arrival volume may be limited due to the recovery of Brazilian soybean transportation [5] 2.5. Livestock - Live Pigs: On March 17, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10,695 yuan/ton, down 1.06%. The supply side is relatively loose, with large pigs being released, increased scale - farm slaughter, and high frozen - product inventory. The demand side is in the off - season, and the support for pig prices is limited. However, there may be support from bottom - fishing and state reserve purchases after price drops [5] 2.6. Palm Oil - Palm Oil: On March 17, the palm oil futures had a high - level oscillation, with the price falling below 10,000 yuan. The main contract P2605 closed at 9954 yuan, down 0.56%. The estimated Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 15 increased by 12.68% compared with the same period last month [5] 2.7. Copper - Shanghai Copper: The main copper contract closed at 99,340 yuan/ton. The spot price was 99,950 - 100,400 yuan/ton, with an average of 100,175 yuan/ton, up 1095 yuan. The demand from new energy, power grids, and electronics is strong, but the Fed's low probability of a March interest - rate cut and the US dollar and bond yields suppress the price increase [5] 2.8. Cotton - Zhengzhou Cotton: The main cotton contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday. The cotton inventory decreased by 13 lots. The 2026 cotton tariff - rate quota for processing trade is 300,000 tons, with a 3 - month validity period starting from issuance [5][6] 2.9. Logs - Logs: The main log 2605 contract opened at 809.5, with a low of 806.5, a high of 817, and closed at 811.5, with an increase of 1337 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable [6] 2.10. Iron Ore - Iron Ore: On March 17, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated upward, up 1.81% to 816.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. However, there may be a recovery in demand due to steel mills' restocking needs [6] 2.11. Asphalt - Asphalt: On March 17, the main asphalt 2606 contract oscillated upward, up 1.73% to 4409 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to cost - induced losses, and inventory is low, but downstream demand has not started yet, so the price may follow oil prices [6] 2.12. Steel - Steel: On March 17, rb2605 closed at 3148 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3313 yuan/ton. High oil prices pushed up raw material prices, strengthening the cost support for steel prices. However, the slow recovery of steel demand may lead to a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [6] 2.13. Alumina - Alumina: On March 17, ao2605 closed at 3073 yuan/ton. The supply - demand balance is okay. Rising costs and positive market sentiment may drive the price up. The spot market has good trading volume [6] 2.14. Aluminum - Shanghai Aluminum: On March 17, al2605 closed at 24,990 yuan/ton. Some overseas aluminum plants have production cuts. The domestic supply is stable, inventory is accumulating, and demand recovery is limited [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On March 16, 2026, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.41%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.34 trillion yuan, a decrease of 77.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on March 16, closing at 4671.56, a环比 increase of 2.42 [2]. - The coke weighted index fluctuated narrowly on March 16, closing at 1760.7, a环比 increase of 2.8 [2]. - The coking coal weighted index was range - bound on March 16, closing at 1209.3 yuan, a环比 increase of 2.1 [3]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 16, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4084.79, down 0.26%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14307.58, up 0.19%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3357.02, up 1.41%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.34 trillion yuan, a decrease of 77.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke has a price increase expectation, and coking profits rise with the increase of by - products. Port inventory has risen to 4.38 million tons. Coal mines' inventories of clean coal and raw coal are decreasing. The auction has a good turnover rate. In the long - term, the market needs to pay attention to the start - up situation and capital availability. - Coking coal mines have resumed production slightly faster than the seasonal average after the Spring Festival. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal in the past two days is about 1400 vehicles, but the supply of prime coking coal is limited. There is still an expectation of production resumption after the Two Sessions [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher on March 16, but the decline in spot prices limited the upward space. At night, the contract fluctuated lower due to long - position liquidation. The estimated sugar cane output in India for the 2025/26 season is 472 million tons, and in Brazil, it is 665 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices and technical factors after a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber rebounded slightly on March 16. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. In 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber production was 2.12 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.7% compared with 2024. The planting area was 3.14 million hectares, a slight decrease of 0.3%, and the harvesting area was 2.22 million hectares, a slight decrease of 0.9% [4]. Palm Oil - On March 16, due to the continuous high - level operation of crude oil, the expectation of bio - diesel policy was positive. The palm oil futures broke through the 10,000 - yuan mark. The closing price of the main contract P2605 was 10,010 yuan, up 2.48% from the previous trading day. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 15 increased significantly compared with the same period last month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 16, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1155.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 5.6%. The market's expectation for US soybean exports has cooled. The US soybean crushing volume in February exceeded expectations. Brazil's soybean harvest is more than half completed, and its export capacity will increase rapidly. Argentina's soybean production is estimated to be 48 million tons. - Domestically, on March 13, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3071 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.82%. China's soybean imports from January - February decreased by 7.8% year - on - year. It is recommended to track South American weather, the Middle East situation, and soybean arrival rhythm [5]. Live Pigs - On March 16, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 10,810 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.05%. The supply is currently abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is in a loss cycle, but bottom - fishing and state reserve purchases may provide support. It is recommended to pay attention to the reduction of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig farms, and terminal consumption recovery [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract closed down 0.88%, breaking through the psychological barrier of 100,000 yuan per ton. The global visible inventory is high, and the downstream demand recovery is slower than expected. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the short - term long - short game. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes and the impact of geopolitical events on the US dollar [5]. Cotton - On the night of March 16, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,570 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 22 lots compared with the previous trading day. Spinning enterprises purchase as needed during the sales season [5]. Logs - On March 16, the main log 2605 contract opened at 794, with a low of 793, a high of 809.5, and closed at 808.5, with an increase of 1115 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong remained unchanged at 770 yuan per cubic meter, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. It is necessary to pay attention to spot prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and market sentiment [5][6]. Iron Ore - On March 16, the main iron ore 2605 contract closed down 0.74% at 809 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased significantly, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron water production decreased, but there is a demand for replenishment after the steel mills lift production restrictions. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6]. Asphalt - On March 16, the main asphalt 2606 contract closed up 10.63% at 4464 yuan. Geopolitical conflicts have made the raw material supply tight in the short term, the operating load is low, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. Steel - On March 16, rb2605 closed at 3140 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3299 yuan per ton. In March, the supply and demand of the steel market have increased. The demand recovery is slow, and the high - inventory pressure still exists. The inventory may start to decline in the second half of the month. The high international energy prices have increased the steel production cost. The short - term steel price may fluctuate [6]. Alumina - On March 16, ao2605 closed at 2965 yuan per ton. The supply is abundant as smelters have resumed production smoothly. The demand is increasing steadily as the aluminum price increase has improved the profits of electrolytic aluminum plants. The spot market is active with holders reluctant to sell and downstream buyers replenishing inventory at low prices [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 16, al2604 closed at 25,170 yuan per ton. The Middle East situation is complex, and there are concerns about the impact on aluminum production capacity. The supply is stable, the aluminum - water ratio is low, and the social inventory is accumulating. The demand shows some buying at low prices, but the overall downstream start - up rate has limited recovery, providing only mild support to the spot price [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On March 13, the A - share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.22%. The trading volume of the three major markets decreased slightly by 43.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the palm oil futures continued to be strong, the soybean meal futures in the domestic market rose, while the pig futures declined [5]. - The supply - demand situations of different commodities vary. For instance, the supply of coke may decline due to environmental protection restrictions, while the supply of coking coal is relatively sufficient [4]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 13, the A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4095.45 points, down 0.81%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14280.78 points, down 0.65%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3310.28 points, down 0.22%. The trading volume of the three major markets was 2.42 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 43.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Commodity Futures - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On March 13, the coke weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1752.5, up 11.1; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1205.6 yuan, up 16.4. The supply of coke may decline due to environmental protection restrictions during the Two Sessions, and the first - round price cut of coke has been implemented. The supply of coking coal is relatively sufficient as domestic coal mines gradually resume production and Mongolian coal customs clearance returns to a high level [2][3][4]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar had a narrow - range shock and a slight increase on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract had a slight decline in the night session due to long - position liquidation. Indonesia plans to increase sugar production to 3 million tons this year by expanding and optimizing sugarcane plantations [4]. - **Rubber**: Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber had a shock - based adjustment and a slight decline on Friday. As of March 13, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4270 tons to 136050 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3300 tons to 120840 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 1108 tons to 50702 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1108 tons to 49291 tons [4][5]. - **Palm Oil**: On Friday, with crude oil remaining at a high level, palm oil futures continued to be strong. The main contract P2605 hit new highs. The highest price was 9914, the lowest was 9722, and the closing price was 9880, up 1.15% from the previous trading day. Short - term focus should be on the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation and its impact on palm oil prices through the international crude oil price [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Internationally, on March 13, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1223.75 cents per bushel, down 0.16%. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is more than half - completed, and the export capacity is expected to increase rapidly. In Argentina, the soybean production forecast remains at 48 million tons. Domestically, on March 13, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 3128 yuan per ton, up 2.42%. China's soybean imports from January to February decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the market is worried about the tightening of soybean supply from March to April [5]. - **Pig**: On March 13, the pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11130 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. The supply side is relatively loose, and the demand side is in the off - season. However, the price decline may be limited due to potential bottom - fishing and state reserve purchase [5]. - **Copper**: On Friday, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100310 yuan per ton. The Middle East situation has pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has been postponed, causing the US dollar to strengthen and suppressing copper prices. The domestic copper supply in March is expected to increase, and the LME copper inventory has increased, with significant inventory pressure [5]. - **Iron Ore**: On March 13, the iron ore 2605 main contract rose by 2.33%, closing at 811.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased significantly, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills, the demand for iron ore may recover, and the short - term price is in a shock trend [6]. - **Asphalt**: On March 13, the asphalt 2606 main contract rose by 3.1%, closing at 4089 yuan. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the market is worried about raw material supply, and the downstream stocking enthusiasm has increased. The short - term price may follow the oil price [7]. - **Log**: The log 2605 main contract opened at 790.5, with a minimum of 790.5, a maximum of 798, and closed at 792.5, with a daily reduction of 20 lots. The import of logs from January to February decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [7]. - **Cotton**: On Friday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15450 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 181 lots compared to the previous trading day. The cotton inventory in Qingdao Port is at a relatively high level in recent years, and local traders are bullish on the future price of foreign cotton [7]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand of rebar are both increasing seasonally. The supply pressure is increasing, and although the demand has improved, the improvement strength is uncertain. The steel price is under pressure but supported by raw material prices, and it continues to be in a shock - stable state [7]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is relatively high, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is affected by geopolitical situations [7]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand has slightly recovered. The profit of aluminum plants is still good, but high aluminum prices may suppress consumption [7].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - On March 12, 2026, A-share market showed a mixed trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.10% to 4129.10 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.63% to 14374.87 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.96% to 3317.52 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 67.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on March 12, closing at 4687.56, a decrease of 16.94 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - On March 12, the weighted index of coke fluctuated within a range, closing at 1741.2, a rise of 26.4. The weighted index of coking coal also fluctuated, closing at 1181.8 yuan, a rise of 24.8 [2][3]. - Coke's spot price increased, with general coking profit and a slight decrease in daily production. Coke inventory rose slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and downstream molten iron remained at a low - season level with general steel profit [4]. - Coking coal's spot price increased. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the Strait of Hormuz. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1449 vehicles. Coal mines resumed work well, with weekly production quickly reaching a high level. Spot auction transactions decreased, and the transaction price dropped slightly. Terminal inventory continued to decline, and there was no significant restocking [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the decline of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract continued to fluctuate narrowly on March 12, rising first and then falling. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. StoneX lowered its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to only 870,000 tons, mainly due to the pessimistic outlook of India's sugar production. It also reduced India's sugar production forecast from 32.3 million tons to 29.7 million tons. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to be 40.5 million tons this year. In the 2026/27 season, although the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 1.7% to 620.5 million tons, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to remain stable [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely on March 12, rising first and then falling. In the morning, it was boosted by the rising crude oil price, but then the price dropped due to concerns about the potential decline of global economic growth. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. In February, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% [4][5]. 2.4 Palm Oil - On March 12, the continuous high - level operation of crude oil made the biodiesel policy outlook positive. The palm oil futures reached a one - year high. The main contract P2605 closed at 9684, up 1.66% from the previous trading day. In 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production increased by 7.3% year - on - year to 51.66 million tons. As of the end of 2025, the palm oil inventory was 2.07 million tons, a 25% decline from the previous month. Indonesian palm oil producers are trying to increase production in 2026, but weather challenges may pose obstacles [5]. 2.5 Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 12, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1225.75 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.95%. The rising crude oil price supported the soybean price as soybean oil is widely used in biodiesel production. More than half of Brazil's soybeans have been harvested, and its export capacity will increase rapidly. Due to the cheaper supply of newly harvested Brazilian soybeans, the export demand for US soybeans has slowed down. Last week, the net sales volume of US soybeans was 466,258 tons, in line with market expectations, but the cumulative sales volume this year was still nearly 19% lower than the same period last year. - Domestically, on March 12, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3054 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.46%. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 767,000 tons, an increase of 56,600 tons from the previous week. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume will rise to about 2 million tons this week, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The Middle East conflict has led to shipping disruptions and increased logistics costs, which has increased the shipping freight and cost of imported soybeans in China, supporting the domestic soybean meal price. It is recommended to focus on South American weather changes, the progress of the Middle East situation, and the rhythm of soybean arrivals [5]. 2.6 Live Pigs - On March 12, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11130 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%. The supply side is relatively loose, with the increase of large pigs held back before, the increase of large - scale farm slaughter, and the high frozen product inventory. The inventory of breeding sows is still at a high level, and the production capacity is large. Coupled with the improvement of breeding efficiency, the effective supply is continuously loose. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption has entered the off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is low, and the demand side's ability to absorb is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Overall, the live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract closed at 101,010 yuan per ton, with an opening price of 100,100 yuan per ton, a highest price of 101,430 yuan per ton, and a lowest price of 100,100 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 88,000 lots, the open interest was 192,000 lots, and the settlement price was 100,860 yuan per ton. The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was 100,670 yuan per ton, with a discount of 340 yuan per ton compared with the futures price, and the spot discount widened. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 425,145 tons, an increase of 33,616 tons from the previous trading day, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The smelting output on the supply side increased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was obvious. The seasonal recovery on the demand side is still in progress, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm [5]. 2.8 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 792 on March 12, with a lowest price of 787, a highest price of 796, and a closing price of 789, with an increase of 317 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Customs data showed that the log imports from January to February decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot - end price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on the price [5][7]. 2.9 Iron Ore - On March 12, the main iron ore 2605 contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.34% and a closing price of 795.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory was at a historical high. After the Two Sessions, steel mills may have certain procurement and restocking needs, and the short - term iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend [7]. 2.10 Asphalt - On March 12, the main asphalt 2606 contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 5.68% and a closing price of 3980 yuan. The geopolitical conflict has high uncertainty, and the market is worried about raw material supply. The operating load is maintained at a low level, and the middle and lower reaches are more wait - and - see. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.11 Cotton - On the night of March 12, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,600 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 173 lots compared with the previous trading day. According to the survey of the China National Cotton Reserves Corporation, in early March 2026, the operating rate of surveyed cotton spinning enterprises was 85.8%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points month - on - month and 0.8 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate in Hebei, Fujian, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, and Hunan provinces reached over 90% [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 12, rb2605 closed at 3120 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3275 yuan per ton. The black futures all rose, mainly driven by the macro - environment and cost. Since the market has digested the information of the release of strategic petroleum reserves by IEA member countries, investors continue to focus on the shipping interruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices have risen sharply again. Coking coal and iron ore futures have actively risen. In the short term, driven by the rising futures, steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 12, ao2605 closed at 2865 yuan per ton. The positive driving force for alumina is weak. Although the FOB price of imports has decreased, it is offset by the rising freight, and the arrival cost has no advantage compared with the domestic market, so the import window remains closed. On the supply side, some alumina plants in Guizhou and Guangxi will start the roasting furnace maintenance in the second half of this month, with a total impact on the daily output of about 2500 tons and the annual production capacity of about 1 million tons. Although it will lead to a phased decline in production and a slight reduction in supply pressure, the overall oversupply pattern remains unchanged. In the现货 market, the quotes of holders have been slightly increased, and the procurement demand of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises is average, only maintaining basic rigid demand, and the trading atmosphere is generally light [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 12, al2604 closed at 25,240 yuan per ton. The Middle East situation remains complex, and it is difficult to ease significantly in the short term. The Strait of Hormuz remains semi - blocked, with only sporadic ships passing through. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the ratio of molten aluminum is relatively low, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory pressure is high, while the warehousing rhythm has slowed down. On the demand side, there is a strong fear of high prices. The high aluminum price suppresses demand, the terminal's willingness to receive goods is average, the downstream operating rate has limited recovery, and the support for the spot is limited [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the market performance of various futures varieties on March 11, 2026, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, palm oil, soybean meal, live pigs, copper, cotton, iron ore, asphalt, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum. It analyzes the influencing factors of each variety and provides corresponding market outlooks and suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 11, A - share three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 4133.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78% to 14465.41 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.31% to 3349.53 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2528.5 billion yuan, an increase of 111.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index remained strong on March 11, closing at 4704.50, a month - on - month increase of 29.74 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 11, the coke weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1731.7, a month - on - month increase of 14.6. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated in the range, closing at 1172.3 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 10.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the operating load of coking enterprises decreased, the inventory in the factory continued to accumulate, and the profit per ton of coke turned positive. On the demand side, affected by the Two Sessions, the start - up of steel mills and the output of molten iron decreased. For coking coal, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, and the start - up of mines and coal washing plants increased. The start - up of downstream coking enterprises decreased slightly, the coking coal inventory continued to decline, the coke inventory continued to accumulate, and the profit per ton of coke turned positive [4]. Sugar - Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices, the US sugar oscillated and closed lower on Tuesday. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar, the downward adjustment of spot quotes, and the expected firmness of crude oil prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, the contract continued to oscillate and closed slightly higher. The European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) pointed out that the El Niño phenomenon may form in the equator and the eastern Pacific in May and strengthen in August. The probability of a super El Niño phenomenon is 22%, the probability of a "strong" El Niño phenomenon is 80%, and the probability of a "medium - intensity" El Niño phenomenon is as high as 98% [4]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and showed an oscillating trend, closing slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, it continued to oscillate and closed slightly higher. According to customs data, from January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In February alone, the import volume was 601,000 tons [4]. Palm Oil - On March 11, the palm oil futures continued to oscillate at a high level, with the price running within the previous trading day's price range. By the afternoon close, the main contract P2605 of palm oil closed with a positive line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 9562, the lowest price was 9330, and the closing price was 9526, a 0.68% increase from the previous trading day. According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from March 1 - 10, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 4.29% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% month - on - month, and the output increased by 1.55% month - on - month [4][5]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on March 11, the main contract of CBOT soybeans closed at 1214.25 cents per bushel, a 0.91% increase. The US Department of Agriculture maintained its forecast for the end - of - season supply of US soybeans in the February supply and demand report, slightly lowered the global supply outlook, but still predicted the Brazilian soybean output at 180 million tons and lowered the Argentine soybean output forecast from 4.85 million tons last month to 4.8 million tons. More than half of the Brazilian soybeans have been harvested, and the export capacity will increase rapidly. In the domestic market, on March 11, the main M2605 contract of soybean meal closed at 3068 yuan per ton, a 3.2% increase. As of last weekend, the total domestic soybean meal inventory was 767,000 tons, an increase of 56,600 tons week - on - week. The Middle East conflict has led to blocked international shipping, increased logistics costs, rising shipping freight and costs of imported soybeans in China, which support the domestic soybean meal price. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America, the progress of the Middle East situation, and the rhythm of soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On March 11, the main contract LH2605 of live pigs closed at 11,170 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease. On the supply side, the current supply is relatively loose. The increase in the slaughter of large pigs previously held back and the increase in the slaughter of large - scale farms, combined with the high frozen product inventory, result in sufficient market supply. The inventory of sows capable of reproduction is still at a high level, the production capacity base is large, and combined with the improvement of breeding efficiency, the effective supply continues to be loose. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption enters the off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, which has limited support for pig prices. Overall, the live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of sows capable of reproduction reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 101,150 yuan per ton, opening high and closing low, remaining the same as the previous trading day's settlement price. It oscillated narrowly around 101,000 - 101,930 yuan per ton, holding the 100,000 - yuan integer mark and showing strong resistance to decline. The trading volume was 75,900 lots, and the open interest was 193,000. The sentiment of funds tended to be stable. The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was 101,320 yuan per ton, a premium of 170 yuan per ton over the main futures price. The sentiment of holders to hold up prices was strong, and downstream rigid - demand purchases supported the price. The average spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 101,630 yuan per ton, and the spot discount continued to narrow, with the willingness to receive goods increasing. The SHFE copper inventory was 425,100 tons, an increase of 33,616 tons from the previous period, showing a trend of inventory accumulation; the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 319,700 tons, with an increase of 1,759 tons yesterday, and the available circulating supply was tight. The LME copper inventory was 302,000 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous period. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, the resumption of production in the smelting end is advancing, and the output in March is expected to reach a record high; the resumption of work in the downstream is marginally strengthening, and the expected "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season boosts demand. It is necessary to focus on the replenishment sentiment of the downstream and the impact of macro data [5]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,490 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 202 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises have fully resumed work after the Spring Festival and entered the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [5]. Iron Ore - On March 11, the main contract 2605 of iron ore oscillated and closed up, with a 0.9% increase and a closing price of 787.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the arrivals increased, the port inventory was at a historical high, and recently affected by environmental protection, production restriction, and emission reduction, the molten iron output decreased. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [5]. Asphalt - On March 11, the main contract 2604 of asphalt oscillated and rose, with a 1.07% increase and a closing price of 3874 yuan. As refineries gradually resume production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, and the refinery shipments have also increased month - on - month. Recently, the geopolitical conflict has led to intensified price fluctuations at the cost end, and the short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. Logs - The main contract 2605 of logs opened at 790 on Wednesday, with a minimum of 785, a maximum of 794.5, and a closing price of 790, with a daily reduction of 580 lots. On March 11, the spot market price of logs: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. According to customs data, the import of logs from January to February decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the support of spot - end prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and macro - expected market sentiment on prices [6]. Steel - On March 11, rb2605 closed at 3115 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3269 yuan per ton. In March, due to the relatively slow resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the recovery of steel demand is moderate. At the same time, the sharp fluctuations in international energy prices have a certain impact on the domestic raw fuel market. Since the domestic coking coal resources are generally sufficient, the coking coal market has been oscillating recently. Affected by the increase in shipping freight and the contraction of the supply side, the iron ore price has been oscillating strongly this week, and the cost has a certain support for the steel price. In the short term, the steel price may continue to oscillate [6]. Alumina - On March 11, ao2605 closed at 2869 yuan per ton. In China, although some roasting production capacities in Guizhou have failed and reduced production, and the sharp rise in caustic soda prices has pushed up costs, driving the futures to rise in the short term, the overall operating rate remains at a high level, and new production capacities such as Fangchenggang and Guangtou are about to be released, with a strong expectation of supply increase. After the Spring Festival, the logistics recovery and the improvement of shipping efficiency have promoted the continuous accumulation of raw material inventories in stations, delivery warehouses, and aluminum plants. This week, imported and domestic trade ships at northern ports have arrived in a concentrated manner, and the port inventory has increased significantly, highlighting the pressure of visible inventory. In the现货 market, downstream electrolytic aluminum plants adhere to on - demand procurement, holders' quotes remain stable, the market liquidity is average, and the trading atmosphere is dull [6]. Aluminum - On March 11, al2604 closed at 25,215 yuan per ton. In China, an important meeting was held, and the Ministry of Finance stated that fiscal policy will continue to adhere to a more proactive tone, and the market is concerned about subsequent guidance. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the ratio of molten aluminum is relatively low, the backlogged and in - transit supplies continue to be delivered, the social inventory pressure remains high, and the warehousing rhythm slows down. On the demand side, there is a strong fear of high prices, the rebound of aluminum prices suppresses demand, the downstream start - up recovery is limited, and the support for the spot is limited [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 10, 2026 - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to 4123.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04% to 14354.07 points, and the Chi - Next Index rose 3.04% to 3306.14 points. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 24170 billion yuan, a decrease of 2539 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4674.76, a rise of 59.3 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - **Coke**: The weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1693.9, a decline of 75.3. Port coke spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1480 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Steel mills mainly purchase on - demand [2][4]. - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index was range - bound, closing at 1147.0 yuan, a decline of 45.0. Some coal prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia rose. Supply is sufficient, and some coke enterprises have implemented production restrictions [3][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract P2605 closed at 9462, a decline of 2.65%. Malaysia's February palm oil production, exports decreased, imports increased, and inventory decreased [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract 2604 oscillated and declined, with a decline of 4.78% to 3746 yuan. As refineries resume production, asphalt prices may follow oil prices [7]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: Affected by the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the US sugar rose on Monday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downwards on Tuesday and then slightly rose at night. India's sugar production forecast for 2025 - 26 was cut by 4.4% [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.59% to 1203.25 cents/bushel. The domestic main contract M2605 rose 1.24% to 3010 yuan/ton. China's 1 - 2 month soybean imports decreased 7.8% year - on - year [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The main contract LH2605 closed at 11180 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15510 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory increased by 303 lots [7]. 2.3 Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.66% to 101520 yuan/ton. Spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. Supply is tight, and demand is expected to improve in the "Golden March and Silver April" [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract 2605 oscillated and closed up 0.26% to 784 yuan. Shipping decreased, arrivals increased, and prices are in an oscillatory trend [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract was at 3104 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract was at 3256 yuan/ton. Steel mills' production resumption is slow, demand recovery is mild, and costs support is weakening [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2839 yuan/ton. Demand is supported by high - start electrolytic aluminum, but supply pressure is increasing [7]. - **Aluminum**: The al2604 contract was at 24880 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, inventory pressure is rising, and demand is weak [7][8]. 2.4 Others - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday and oscillated at night. Inventory in Qingdao increased slightly [4][6]. - **Log**: The 2605 main contract closed at 791.5, with 1079 lots of position reduction. Some spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable or decreased. 1 - 2 month imports decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [7]. 3. Outlook and Suggestions - **Soybean Meal**: Track South American weather, Middle - East situation, and soybean arrival rhythm [6]. - **Live Pigs**: Pay attention to the culling progress of sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and terminal consumption recovery [6]. - **Copper**: Focus on "Golden March" consumption and inventory reduction, as well as geopolitical risks and capital movements [7]. - **Log**: Monitor spot prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, the A-share market showed wide - amplitude fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined, while trading volume increased. The performance of various futures varieties was affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [1]. - The prices of some commodities like coal and oil were affected by the Iran conflict, which in turn influenced related futures prices. For example, the prices of coke,焦煤, and crude oil rose, while the prices of some other commodities showed different trends [2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 9, the three major A - share indexes fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to 4096.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74% to 14067.50 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64% to 3208.58 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 451.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Commodity Futures - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On March 9, the coke weighted index closed at 1750.8, up 64.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1190.2 yuan, up 60.1. The cost of coking coal has loosened, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up of coking enterprises is expected to increase. However, the oversupply problem restricts the price elasticity [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: Due to the Iran conflict, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil both exceeded $100 per barrel on March 9 [5]. - **Steel**: The escalation of the Gulf situation has a limited direct impact but a significant indirect impact on China's steel exports. Short - term monthly exports are affected by about 1.1624 million tons. If the situation lasts for more than 3 months, there is a risk of losing the Middle - East market share. Steel prices may be strong in the short term due to the rise in global energy prices and the recovery of domestic demand [5][8]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the sharp rise in crude oil prices and the significant increase in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on March 9. There may be a supply gap in the global sugar market in 2025/26 and 2026/27 [5]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated widely on March 9, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The US tire imports increased in 2025, and the predicted total tire shipments in 2026 will increase [6]. - **Palm Oil**: On March 9, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the palm oil futures price was at the daily limit for most of the trading time. As of March 6, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China increased [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.46% on March 9. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main M2605 contract rose 2.74%. The situation in the Middle - East and the delay in Brazilian soybean harvesting support the price of soybean meal [6]. - **Live Pigs**: On March 9, the live pig main contract LH2605 rose 0.36%. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main 2604 contract fell 0.59% on March 9. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased, and the spot market sentiment was weak [6]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15245 yuan/ton on the night of March 9. The cotton inventory increased, and the short - fiber price rose as the market entered the peak sales season [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 2.28% on March 9. The iron ore shipment continued to recover, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a high level. The iron ore price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 8.99% on March 9. As refineries gradually resumed production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate and shipment volume increased, and the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. - **Log**: The log 2605 main contract opened at 801, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 818, and closed at 802.5 on March 9, with an increase of 272 lots in positions [7]. - **Alumina**: On March 9, the ao2605 contract closed at 2905 yuan/ton. The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the cost of imported bauxite, and the supply - demand imbalance in the short term supports the price increase, but the over - supply problem has not been fundamentally reversed [8]. - **Aluminum**: On March 9, the al2604 contract closed at 24950 yuan/ton. The market is worried about the impact of the Middle - East situation on aluminum production capacity. The supply is stable, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 6, 2026 - A-share market: The three major A-share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 4124.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59% to 14172.63 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.38% to 3229.30 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 193.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index futures: The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 4660.44, a rise of 12.75 [2] 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted coke index trended stronger, closing at 1705.3, a rise of 24.3. Coke production increased, but inventory pressure emerged. Steel mills' demand was mainly for rigid needs and was suppressed [4] - Coking coal: The weighted coking coal index was strong, closing at 1145.0 yuan, a rise of 20.0. Domestic coal mine production resumed, but imports were limited. Inventory was mixed, and costs were rising [5] 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose. As of February 28, Guangxi's sugar production and sales decreased year-on-year [5][6] 2.3 Rubber - Due to factors like large short - term gains and global economic uncertainty, Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly higher. The inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber changed [6] 2.4 Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean prices rose. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main contract rose. Inventory decreased, and costs provided support [6] 2.5 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract rose slightly. The market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with sufficient supply and weak post - holiday demand [6] 2.6 Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low, fluctuated, and then rebounded. Domestic supply increased, inventory accumulated, and downstream demand was weak [6] 2.7 Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15310 yuan/ton. Inventory increased, and global cotton consumption was affected by conflicts [6][7] 2.8 Logs - The log 2605 main contract had certain price fluctuations. Spot prices were stable, and future factors to be concerned about were mentioned [7] 2.9 Iron Ore - The iron ore 2605 main contract rose. Shipping increased, arrivals decreased, and prices were in a volatile trend due to production restrictions [7] 2.10 Asphalt - The asphalt 2604 main contract rose. Refinery production resumed, and prices might follow oil prices [7] 2.11 Alumina - The alumina market was in a situation of increasing supply and demand. Bauxite prices might be supported, and domestic supply and demand both increased [7] 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market also had a situation of increasing supply and demand. Supply might increase slightly, and demand was expected to recover [7] 2.13 Steel - Steel prices were volatile during the Two Sessions. After the Two Sessions, prices would return to fundamentals, and pressure remained. Demand recovery was to be observed [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 5, 2026, A - share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.66%. The trading volume of the three major markets slightly increased by 24.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Different futures varieties have different market trends. For example, the CSI 300 index was strong, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes showed a downward trend [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 5, A - share three major indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4108.57, up 0.64%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14088.84, up 1.23%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3216.94, up 1.66%. The trading volume of the three major markets reached 2412.8 billion yuan, an increase of 24.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4647.69 on March 5, up 45.7 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 5, the coke weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1686.4, down 0.9; the coking coal weighted index was sorted out narrowly, closing at 1126.9 yuan, down 4.1 [2][3]. - The main reason for the weakening of coal - coke prices is that the high import volume of Mongolian coal weakens the effect of the slow resumption of domestic coal production, and downstream steel mills and coking plants are still consuming existing furnace material inventories, delaying restocking [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as rising energy prices, the upward trend of US sugar subsided on Wednesday, and it fluctuated lower. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher on Thursday due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and increased spot quotes. At night, it continued to rise under the influence of funds [4]. - As of February 28, Yunnan Province had cumulatively crushed 12.0182 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 9.41%; produced 1.4934 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 6.65%; sold 697,500 tons of new sugar, with a sales rate of 46.71%, lower than 51.60% in the same period of the previous season [4]. Rubber - Due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices caused by the US - Iran dispute and the uncertainty of the global economy, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia fluctuated lower. Affected by this, Shanghai rubber fluctuated downward on Thursday and slightly declined at night after a large short - term decline [4]. - After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed production, and most enterprises had returned to the normal level within the week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 5, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1166.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.45%. The Middle East conflict led to a rise in international crude oil, providing some potential support for the agricultural product market. The US soybean export sales net increase was 383,500 tons in the week ending February 26, in line with market expectations [5]. - Domestically, on March 5, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2843 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.49%. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 710,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 150,500 tons. The decrease in inventory exceeded expectations, enhancing the anti - decline ability of soybean meal prices [5]. Live Pigs - On March 5, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11140 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.09%. The supply of suitable - weight live pigs in March is in a loose trend, and the demand for fat pigs is in the off - season. The market pressure - barring risk has increased, and the breeding end's willingness to reduce production capacity has increased [5]. - The demand for pork is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, the downstream white - strip pork sales are not smooth, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is low, and the demand side has weak support for pig prices. The live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Palm Oil - On March 5, affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil, the palm oil futures at home and abroad showed high - volatility patterns. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 9070 yuan, an increase of 0.76% compared to the previous trading day [5]. - The spot market is still slowly shipping, and the spot quotes in various markets are the same as the previous day. The mainstream price of 24 - degree palm oil in Zhangjiagang Port is 9000 yuan per ton [5]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened at 101,640, reached a high of 102,290, a low of 100,330, and closed at 101,080, with a settlement price of 101,330. The trading volume was 138,700 lots, and the open interest was 201,000 lots, showing a wide - range fluctuation within the day [5]. - The core driving factors are that the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has cooled, and the strong US dollar suppresses non - ferrous metals. In February, the domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 7.96% year - on - year, and downstream enterprises resumed work slowly, were resistant to high prices, and mainly purchased on demand with weak restocking willingness [5]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15215 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 11 lots compared to the previous trading day. After the Spring Festival, polyester staple fiber rose sharply [6]. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 803 on Thursday, with a low of 798.5, a high of 805, and closed at 800.5, with an increase of 424 lots in positions [6]. - On March 5, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 790 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Iron Ore - On March 5, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.27% and a closing price of 759 yuan. The iron ore shipment continued to rise this period, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory was at a historical high, and the molten iron production maintained an increasing trend. However, some steel mills were restricted during the Two Sessions, and the short - term iron ore price was in a fluctuating trend [6]. Asphalt - On March 5, the asphalt 2604 main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.11% and a closing price of 3659 yuan. As refineries gradually resume production, the asphalt capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, and the refinery shipment volume has also increased month - on - month. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. Steel - On March 5, rb2605 closed at 3075 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3209 yuan per ton. The government work report proposed a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the general public budget expenditure increased by about 1.27 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - The steel industry is still in the stage of resuming work and production, the market demand has not recovered, and the steel price may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [6]. Alumina - On March 5, ao2605 closed at 2800 yuan per ton. The new production capacity in Guangxi was put into production less than expected, resulting in a tight supply in the southwest region. After the Spring Festival, the spot circulation in the north tightened, which supported the price to a certain extent. However, the overall supply - surplus pattern of alumina has not changed, and the upward pressure is still significant [6]. - The domestic alumina production started stably this week. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream resumption rate increased, and the spot price stabilized and rebounded slightly, providing marginal benefits [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 5, al2604 closed at 24815 yuan per ton. Domestically, the market is concerned about the guidance of important meetings. The supply side operates stably, the aluminum - water ratio remains at a low level within the year, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory pressure continues to rise [6]. - The demand side is under increasing pressure, the major downstream consumption areas are cautious in receiving goods, and the high aluminum price suppresses the demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 4, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98% to 4082.47, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.75% to 13917.75, and the ChiNext Index declined 1.41% to 3164.37. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2388.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 769.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index Futures: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4602.62, down 53.27 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted and closed at 1682.2, up 11.5. Coke producers' profitability has improved, leading to increased production. Steel mills' hot metal production is rising, supporting coke demand [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and closed at 1119.7 yuan, down 1.5. Mine production is gradually recovering, but safety inspections during the important meeting have affected the resumption of production. Mongolian coal imports have returned to normal, and demand from coke producers is increasing [3][4]. 2.2 Sugar - Zhengzhou Sugar: Affected by the decline in spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated slightly lower on Wednesday. The ICE 3 - month raw sugar futures contract settled at 14.3 cents per pound, with a delivery volume of 15,901 lots (equivalent to 808,000 tons) [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai Rubber: Due to the rise in crude oil prices and technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely, bottomed out, and rebounded, closing slightly lower. The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association predicts that the total tire shipments in 2026 will increase by 0.7% to 338.9 million [4][5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International Market: The CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1166.25 cents per bushel, down 0.45%. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slower than usual, and the expected output is 178 million tons, lower than the previous forecast. Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to be 16.1 million tons [5]. - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2829 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 150,500 tons to 710,400 tons last week. The increase in import costs provides support for soybean meal prices [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11,130 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The supply of suitable - weight pigs is abundant, and the demand for fat pigs is weak. The demand for pork is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures' upward trend slowed down, and the price rose and then fell. The main contract P2605 closed at 9002, up 0.09%. Malaysia's palm oil production in February is estimated to have decreased by 16.24% [5]. 2.7 Copper - Shanghai Copper: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 100,530, reached a high of 102,400, a low of 100,200, and closed at 101,660. The global copper inventory of the three major exchanges has reached a new high since 2003, and the domestic social inventory has increased by 50.4%. The strengthening of the US dollar and profit - taking have put pressure on copper prices, but the shortage of raw materials and long - term demand support copper prices [5]. 2.8 Cotton - Zhengzhou Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,250 yuan/ton at night on Wednesday. The cotton inventory increased by 8 lots. Spinning mills are cautious about purchasing raw cotton [6]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 800, reached a low of 796.5, a high of 802, and closed at 802, with an increase of 377 lots. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong remained unchanged at 770 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 790 yuan/cubic meter [6]. 2.10 Iron Ore - The main contract of iron ore 2605 closed up 0.4% at 752 yuan. The iron ore shipments are increasing, the arrivals are decreasing, and the port inventory is at a historical high. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. 2.11 Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt 2604 closed up 2.35% at 3660 yuan. Some refineries plan to resume production, increasing supply and inventory pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the price may follow the oil price [6]. 2.12 Steel - The rb2605 contract closed at 3071 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3212 yuan/ton. The steel market trading volume is low, and the demand is gradually picking up. Some Tangshan steel mills plan to cut production by 30%, while independent electric arc furnace steel mills are resuming production. The steel price may continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. 2.13 Alumina - The ao2605 contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton. The post - holiday consumption sentiment is weak, and the market trading is poor [6]. 2.14 Aluminum - The al2604 contract closed at 24,795 yuan/ton. The domestic market is waiting for policy guidance. The supply is stable, the social inventory is increasing, and the demand is under pressure [6].