Report Summary Market Performance on August 11, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market rallied with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43, and ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82. Trading volume reached 1.827 trillion yuan, up 116.7 billion yuan from last Friday. CSI 300 Index closed at 4122.51, up 17.54 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index closed at 1735.3, up 33.2; coking coal weighted index closed at 1234.7 yuan, up 37.8. Coke's 6th round of price increase started, while coking coal's spot price fluctuated. Import of coking coal decreased by 7.36% from January to June, and export of coke decreased by 28% during the same period [3][4][5] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract edged down on Monday but rebounded slightly at night due to technical factors. EU's beet production is expected to increase by 1% in 2025/26, but disease remains a concern [5] - **Rubber Futures**: Supported by Fed's rate - cut expectation and adverse weather in Thailand, Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Monday and consolidated at night. Indonesia's rubber export increased by 11.6% in H1, while Vietnam's decreased by 3.4% [6] - **Soybean Meal Futures**: CBOT soybeans rose over 2% on August 11 due to improved US export demand. US soybean export sales reached a 6 - and - a - half - month high. Domestic M2601 contract closed at 3072 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. High domestic supply and low terminal demand coexist, but rising import cost and low Q4 procurement support prices [7] - **Live Pig Futures**: LH2511 contract closed at 14140 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. Low consumption in summer, expected increase in group - farm supply, and high overall capacity lead to a loose supply - demand situation [8] - **Palm Oil Futures**: P2509 contract closed at 9218, up 2.65%. Malaysia's July palm oil export, production, and inventory increased, while import decreased [9] - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The main contract rose. Tight copper supply and increased short - term supply disruptions are positive for prices, but expected supply increase after US tariff implementation poses pressure [9] - **Cotton Futures**: Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory at Xinjiang warehouses decreased by 80 lots [10] - **Iron Ore Futures**: 2509 contract closed at 796.5 yuan, up 0.82%. Global shipments decreased last week, but demand remains resilient due to high iron - water production [10] - **Asphalt Futures**: 2510 contract closed at 3481 yuan, down 0.51%. Capacity utilization and shipments increased last week, and low inventory supports prices [11] - **Log Futures**: 2509 contract opened at 833.5, closed at 832.5, and decreased by 1404 lots. Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. Strong expectation and weak reality coexist [11] - **Steel Futures**: rb2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3465 yuan/ton. Production restrictions in Tangshan and strong coke and coking coal prices support steel prices [12] - **Alumina Futures**: ao2509 closed at 3182 yuan/ton. With increasing capacity, supply is becoming more abundant, and the market is shifting to cost - based pricing [12] - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: al2509 closed at 20700 yuan/ton. Ample supply, weak demand, and mixed economic expectations put pressure on prices [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The cotton market shows a small positive trend this week, with the main contract closing at 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week [1]. - The US plan to increase tariffs on India by 50% brings uncertainty to the Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan slows down, and the harvest in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, the low - level lint inventory decreased rapidly last week, and high temperatures continue in Xinjiang this week [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, domestic cotton de - stocking is obvious this week. Downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season, with the startup rate still declining. Enterprises are making normal restocking. Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the basis rate is around 9.1% [3]. - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production, consumption, trade volume, and beginning and ending inventories have all been adjusted downwards [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The main cotton contract closed with a small positive line this week, with a closing price of 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week [1] News Situation - The US plan to increase tariffs on India by 50% impacts Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan slows, and the harvest in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, low - level lint inventory decreased rapidly last week, and Xinjiang has high temperatures this week [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply: Domestic cotton de - stocking is obvious this week [3] - Demand: Downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season, and the startup rate is still declining, with normal restocking [3] - Inventory: Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the basis rate is around 9.1% [3] Global Supply and Demand Forecast - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production, consumption, trade volume, and beginning and ending inventories have all been adjusted downwards [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by various factors including international trade policies, weather, and supply - demand fundamentals. The market shows a complex situation with price increase, supply - side changes, and weak downstream demand [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main cotton contract closed with a small positive line this week. The closing price was 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week's close [1] 2. News Situation - The US's 50% tariff increase on India has brought uncertainty to Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan has slowed with production estimates lowered, and the harvest progress in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, the low - grade lint cotton inventory on the supply side decreased rapidly last week, and the temperature in Xinjiang remained high this week [2] 3. Fundamental Situation - In terms of supply, domestic cotton de - stocking was obvious this week. On the demand side, downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season with a declining operating rate and normal restocking. Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the cotton basis rate is around 9.1% [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market on August 8, 2025, showed a slight decline, with decreased trading volume. Various futures products have different price trends and influencing factors, including supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, and international events [1]. - The prices of different futures are affected by multiple factors such as international relations, inventory changes, production adjustments, and consumption seasons. The market trends of each product are complex and variable, and investors need to pay attention to relevant information and policy changes [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Product **Stock Index Futures** - On August 8, the A - share market's three major indices declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12% to 3635.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.26% to 11128.67 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.38% to 2333.96 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1710.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 115.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also underwent a correction, closing at 4104.97, a decrease of 9.70 [1]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On August 8, the coke weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1706.9, up 0.4; the coking coal weighted index was also in narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1203.7 yuan, up 3.8 [1][2]. - For coke, the fifth price increase has been implemented. The raw material inventory has rebounded, the iron - making capacity is high, and the coal mine inventory pressure has been transferred downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the average loss of 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton [3]. - For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal is 1230. The mine - end inventory is generally decreasing, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, being moderately high. Some mines will implement the "276 - working - day" system, which may lead to a decline in daily coal production [3]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Concerns about reduced sugar supply from Brazil have boosted the US sugar price. The CFTC data shows that speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 17,654 contracts to 139,137 contracts as of the week ending August 5 [3]. **Rubber** - The Thai Meteorological Department's warning of bad weather from August 10 - 13 has affected the Shanghai rubber futures, which rose slightly at night on August 8. The inventory of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has different changes [4]. **Soybean Meal** - In the international market, the excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the probability of weather speculation is low. The export sales volume of US soybeans has rebounded significantly. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans is sufficient, but the terminal demand is limited. The procurement volume of soybeans for the fourth quarter is low, causing concerns about future supply shortages [5]. **Live Pigs** - On August 8, the live - pig futures price rose slightly. In the short term, the reduction in the scale farm's slaughter volume and the intention of secondary fattening to replenish stocks support the price, but the weak consumption demand suppresses it. In the medium term, the pig supply is abundant, and the price increase space is limited [6]. **Palm Oil** - On the night of August 8, the palm oil market continued the main - contract transfer, with prices fluctuating slightly. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the previous month [6]. **Shanghai Copper** - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is over 90%, providing upward momentum for copper prices, but overseas uncertainties still exist. In terms of supply - demand, the arrival of Asian copper is expected to increase in mid - to - late August, and the low - season demand is weak, but low inventory supports the price [7]. **Iron Ore** - On August 8, the iron ore 2509 main contract fluctuated and closed down 0.19%, at 790 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, the port inventory increased slightly, and the iron - making capacity remained high. The iron ore price is in a short - term oscillatory trend [7]. **Asphalt** - On August 8, the asphalt 2510 main contract fluctuated and fell 1.58%, closing at 3478 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased last week, and the demand is affected by rainfall, but low supply and inventory provide support, so the short - term price fluctuates [7]. **Cotton** - On the night of August 8, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,670 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouse is at least 380 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 77 lots compared with the previous day [7][8]. **Logs** - On August 8, the 2509 log contract opened at 831.5, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 835.5, and closed at 830.5, with a reduction of 664 lots. The external price increase has driven up the domestic futures price. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with weak spot transactions [8]. **Steel** - Recently, high costs and low demand have been in conflict, causing the steel price to fluctuate. The coal mine production and inventory are decreasing, and some coking enterprises have launched the sixth price increase. The steel demand in the off - season is weak, but the steel mills' production reduction is limited due to good profits. The market is expected to be supported by the expectation of stricter coal - mine safety supervision and possible steel - mill production restrictions, and the steel price may be slightly stronger in the short term [9]. **Alumina and Aluminum** - For alumina, the price is firm, and the smelter's profit is good, so the production enthusiasm is high. The electrolytic aluminum production has increased, but the overall capacity is approaching the upper limit, so the increase is small. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory may accumulate slightly in the short term [9]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the bauxite shipment will decrease due to the rainy season in Guinea and mining disturbances, and the port inventory may also decline. The alumina price has increased, and the domestic production capacity and output have increased slightly. The overall alumina market may be in a stage of slight supply - demand increase [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No indication of the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report presents the market performance of various futures and spot commodities on August 7, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, palm oil, soybean meal, live pigs, copper, cotton, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each commodity [1][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 7, A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.16% at 3639.67 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.18% at 11157.94 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.68% at 2342.86 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1825.5 billion yuan, an increase of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation, closing at 4114.67, up 1.18 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's fifth - round price increase was implemented on Monday. Driven by the rapid rise in coal prices at the cost end, coke followed the upward trend, and the coking profit returned to the break - even point. Due to the upcoming military parade, production restrictions are expected, with potential supply and demand reduction in the second half of the month. It is expected that the first - round price cut will start in mid - to late August [5]. - For coking coal, the prices of some varieties increased. The supply side saw a slight decline in mine开工 rate due to stricter safety inspections, and the demand side was relatively healthy. The basis was - 215.5, down 31 [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by Brazil's weak export data in July, the US sugar market declined slightly on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was under pressure from short - sellers on Thursday. As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area increased compared to the same period last year, and Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of potential floods from August 10 - 12, causing the Shanghai rubber futures to rise slightly on Thursday. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to July increased by 20.8% [6]. Palm Oil - On August 7, palm oil prices oscillated within the previous day's range. The import cost of palm oil in China decreased, and the price inversion range narrowed. There were no new purchases in the domestic market last week [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined on August 7. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected. Domestically, on August 7, soybean meal futures oscillated. There was sufficient soybean supply, but concerns about future supply shortages remained. The price will continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to US weather and import conditions [8]. Live Pigs - On August 7, live pig futures rose. The current consumption demand is weak, but short - term support comes from reduced slaughter and some secondary fattening demand. In the medium term, the market is still in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and attention should be paid to policy and slaughter conditions [9]. Shanghai Copper - Due to weak economic data and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, and the US dollar index was weak. Coupled with a warm domestic industrial product atmosphere, Shanghai copper temporarily stabilized. In early August, it may still face pressure, but the downside space is limited [9]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13665 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and China's textile and clothing exports in July decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. Logs - The futures price of logs showed a certain trend, and the spot price was stable. The futures price was driven up by the increase in the external market price. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [11]. Steel - On August 7, steel futures prices were at certain levels. The cost of coking coal still strongly supported steel prices, but weak demand restricted the upward space. In the short term, steel prices may oscillate strongly with frequent ups and downs [11]. Alumina - On August 7, alumina futures closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable, but the market was inactive. The inventory was accumulating, and the price faced upward pressure [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 7, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20750 yuan/ton. In the short term, it was under pressure, but with the expectation of a macro - level relaxation, it has the potential to rebound after the off - season. Attention should be paid to inventory and consumption trends in August [12].

Report Overview - The report provides daily analysis and insights on various commodities and financial markets, including overseas and domestic macroeconomics, stock indices, and futures contracts for commodities such as coal, sugar, rubber, and agricultural products. 1. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - Early in the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined, but the August 1st non - farm payrolls data raised concerns about US employment and economic downturn. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased, which is favorable for gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues [1]. Domestic Macro - In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico [1]. 2. Asset Views Domestic Assets - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [1]. Overseas Assets - Concerns about US employment decline and economic slowdown are rising. The long - term weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and be vigilant against volatility spikes [1]. 3. Stock Index Analysis A - share Market - On August 6th, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new closing high for the year, with a 0.45% increase to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.66% to 2358.95 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1734.1 billion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. CSI 300 Index - On August 6th, the CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4113.48, a环比 increase of 10.04 [2]. 4. Commodity Futures Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - On August 6th, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1696.6, a环比 increase of 46.7. The coking coal weighted index maintained an upward - trending oscillation, closing at 1194.6 yuan, a环比 increase of 79.7. Some mines in Linfen have been shut down for rectification, and the supply of coking coal is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. The fifth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the profitability of coke enterprises has improved [2][3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - International oil price decline and concerns about global demand weakness have pressured the US sugar market. Affected by the decline of US sugar and spot price adjustments, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined slightly on August 6th. As of July 31st, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales reached 1.9514 million tons, with a sales rate of 80.68% [5]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and adjusted on August 6th. From January to June 2025, Hainan's natural rubber output was 91,900 tons, a 6.0% decrease compared to 2024 [6]. Soybean Meal - On August 6th, the international CBOT soybean futures closed down. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is expected to expand, which will make the global soybean supply more abundant. The domestic soybean meal futures price showed a trend of rising and then falling. The domestic supply is sufficient, but there are concerns about future supply shortages, so the soybean meal may oscillate widely [7]. Live Pigs - On August 6th, live pig futures closed up. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the mid - term production capacity is still being released. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and reduced school procurement. The overall live pig market is in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Palm Oil - On August 6th, palm oil futures failed to continue the previous day's strength. From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% compared to the same period last month [8]. Shanghai Copper - Globally, LME copper inventories are high, while SHFE inventories are low. US copper inventory may flow back, which may suppress prices. Technically, Shanghai copper is in a state of oscillation [10]. Cotton - On the night of August 6th, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,660 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 90 lots compared to the previous day, and the cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with the expected harvest time one week earlier than usual [10]. Logs - On August 6th, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 829, with a low of 826, a high of 836, and a close of 832.5, with a reduction of 370 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in external quotes has driven up the domestic futures price [10][11]. Steel - On August 6th, the rb2510 contract closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3,451 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in coking coal futures has driven up steel prices. In the short term, steel prices may be strong, but there is a risk of correction if demand is insufficient [11]. Alumina - On August 6th, the ao2509 contract closed at 3,241 yuan/ton. The sentiment of "anti - involution" has cooled down. The supply of alumina has increased, and the market may maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 6th, the al2509 contract closed at 20,650 yuan/ton. The macro environment is relatively cold, and the supply of aluminum is increasing slightly while the demand is shrinking. The aluminum price may oscillate within a range [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures varieties on August 5, 2025, including their price movements, influencing factors, and market trends. Different futures have different price trends and influencing factors, and the market shows a complex and diverse situation. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On August 5, A-share major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3,600 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96% to 3,617.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59% to 11,106.96 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39% to 2,343.38 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5961 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on August 5, closing at 4,103.45, a rise of 32.75 from the previous day [2]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On August 5, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1,674.9, a rise of 61.0 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal maintained a wide - range fluctuation, closing at 1,146.6 yuan, a rise of 77.7 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the 5 - round spot price increase has been fully implemented, the coking profit has been repaired, and the coking start - up rate is expected to increase. The downstream steel mills maintain a high level of hot metal, and the coke spot resources are relatively tight. There are still plans to increase the price in August. For coking coal, there are new停产 mines this week, some coal types are in short supply, and the mine restart speed is slow. The average daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the port this week is more than 1,000 vehicles, and the import profit of sea - borne coal has narrowed, but most coal types are still cost - effective [5]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by the news that Pakistan TCP company tendered to purchase 100,000 tons of refined sugar and the possible rise in sugar prices due to the decline in European production and sales, the US sugar fluctuated slightly higher on Monday. Supported by the US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract closed slightly higher on Tuesday, but fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure [5]. - As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 5.4961 million tons, an increase of 396,600 tons year - on - year; the sales rate was 85.01%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a decrease of 113,000 tons year - on - year. In July, the single - month sugar sales were 355,500 tons, a decrease of 217,800 tons year - on - year [5]. **Rubber** - Due to the increase in rainfall in the Thai production area, the spot price quotes in Southeast Asia stopped falling and rose. Supported by concerns about the Thai weather, the Shanghai Rubber fluctuated higher on Tuesday and closed slightly higher after a slight adjustment at night due to technical factors. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first half of the year were 2.257 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [6]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on August 5, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans was higher than expected, but the market was worried about the demand of consumer countries. Domestically, on August 5, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated, and the main M2509 contract closed at 3,023 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%. The import of soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill's crushing volume remains high, the terminal feed and breeding industry purchases as needed, the提货 demand is less than the production, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the low - level procurement volume of soybeans in the fourth quarter in China has led to concerns about supply shortages, and the soybean meal may fluctuate widely [6][8]. **Live Pigs** - On August 5, the live pig futures price fluctuated, and the main LH2511 contract closed at 13,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. The supply side has a stable slaughter rhythm, and the short - term market supply is sufficient. In the medium term, the pig production capacity is still in the release stage. The demand side is affected by high - temperature weather, and the pork consumption demand is weak. The overall live pig market shows a situation of loose supply and demand [8]. **Palm Oil** - On August 5, the palm oil price rebounded strongly after testing the support level the previous day, and the main contract closed with a large positive line, rising 2.56% to 9,064 yuan. India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while the soybean oil imports increased by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons. The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from July 1 - 31 were 896,362 tons, a decrease of 25.01% compared with the previous month [9]. **Shanghai Copper** - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, increasing market concerns about the US economic recession and boosting the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Historically, the probability of the Shanghai Copper price rising in August and September is relatively high, and the current period has a tendency to strengthen according to the cycle law. Fundamentally, the LME and COMEX copper inventories are high, but the SHFE inventory is low, the domestic spot is relatively tight, and the downstream is actively purchasing at low prices. However, the reverse flow of the copper inventory hoarded in the US may suppress the price [10]. **Iron Ore** - On August 5, the main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.2% and a closing price of 798.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased this period, the arrival increased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the hot metal production decreased but remained at a relatively high level of 2.4 million tons. The short - term demand has strong resilience, and the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. **Asphalt** - On August 5, the main 2509 contract of asphalt fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.58% and a closing price of 3,544 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased last week, the shipment volume also increased, the demand recovery is slow but there is still a repair expectation, and the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price fluctuates [10]. **Cotton** - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13,675 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. The lowest basis price quote at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market on August 6 was 400 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 121 lots compared with the previous day [11]. **Log** - On August 5, the 2509 log contract opened at 841.5, with a minimum of 825.5, a maximum of 841.5, and closed at 829, with a decrease of 1,531 lots in positions. The external price quote increased, driving the domestic futures price up. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [13]. **Steel** - On August 5, the rb2510 contract closed at 3,233 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3,457 yuan/ton. The current coal mine inventory is generally low, the coking coal market is stable, and the fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented. However, the steel mills' purchasing sentiment has become cautious, and it is difficult for the coke price to continue to rise. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the steel demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure may increase. In the short term, the steel price may adjust widely [13]. **Alumina** - On August 5, the ao2509 contract closed at 3,227 yuan/ton. The weak consumption in the off - season continues, the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is slow, the procurement demand for alumina raw materials is light, and the high price of alumina itself restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. In the short term, the supply - demand support for alumina will gradually weaken, and the futures price center may face adjustment pressure [13]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - On August 5, the al2509 contract closed at 20,560 yuan/ton. The downstream is still in the off - season, the spot is purchased as needed, and the spot premium is weak. In the short term, the inventory is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. Whether the price can break through depends on the inventory trend and consumption recovery signal during the off - peak to peak season transition in August [14].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a collective upward trend on August 4, 2025, with varying degrees of increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, and the trading volume decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - Different futures varieties presented different market conditions. For example, some futures prices fluctuated with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [4][7][8]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 4, the three major A - share indexes closed up. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to 3583.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to 11041.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 2334.32 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 14986 billion yuan, a decrease of 998 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 index showed a strong - trending shock, closing at 4070.70, a rise of 15.77 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 4, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, with a closing price of 1646.4, a rise of 9.2. The coking coal weighted index showed a weak shock, with a closing price of 1101.0 yuan, a rise of 19.9 [2][3]. - Coke: The cost increased due to rising coal prices, the profitability of coke enterprises was average, the weekly - on - weekly start - up rate declined slightly, and the supply was relatively stable. The demand side had a small decline in iron - water production, but the absolute level was high. The inventory was depleted under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price fluctuated with raw material prices and market sentiment [4]. - Coking coal: The supply recovery was slow due to safety inspections and production restrictions in some mines. The import volume of Mongolian coal reached a high level this year, and the trading sentiment in the spot market declined. The demand side also showed a weak situation with a decline in the start - up rate of coke enterprises and iron - water production [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening of the US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on Friday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract showed a shock - adjustment trend on Monday and a slight increase at night due to technical factors and capital effects [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline and technical support, as well as bargain - hunting buying, the Shanghai rubber futures rebounded slightly on Monday and continued to rise slightly at night. The total inventory at Qingdao Port decreased last week, with a decrease in both bonded and general trade warehouses [5]. Palm Oil - On August 4, palm oil fluctuated widely. The main contract P2509 closed with a long - lower - shadow阴线. The expected inventory, production, and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July 2025 all increased compared to June [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures rose on August 4. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased, and the expected soybean production in Brazil increased. Domestically, the soybean meal futures rose slightly on August 4. The inventory continued to accumulate due to sufficient imported soybeans and high oil - mill crushing volume, but the concern about the future supply gap supported the futures price [7]. Live Pigs - On August 4, live pigs continued the weak trend. The supply was sufficient, and the secondary - fattening enthusiasm declined. The demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost increased due to rising feed prices, and the market was in a state of loose supply and demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed a range - bound shock. The poor US non - farm payroll data increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts, which was theoretically beneficial to copper prices, but tariff policy uncertainty might suppress long - term demand. The global copper inventory was rising, and the demand was weak, but the mining suspension of a Chilean mine and the expected supply - tightening policy supported the copper price [8]. Iron Ore - On August 4, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose with a shock. The global shipment increased last week, the arrival volume decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the iron - water production declined, but the short - term price was in a shock trend [9]. Asphalt - On August 4, the asphalt 2509 main contract declined with a shock. The production capacity utilization rate increased last week, and the demand was expected to recover. The low inventory supported the price, and the short - term price fluctuated [9]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton at night on Monday. The cotton inventory decreased by 123 lots compared to the previous trading day [9][10]. Logs - The log 2509 contract rose unilaterally on August 4. The external quotation increase drove the internal futures price up. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [10]. Steel - On August 4, the rb2510 closed at 3204 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3417 yuan/ton. The profit game between the upstream and downstream of the black chain intensified, and the trading logic switched to the dual - drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, with the support of real - estate policies and the steel industry's stable - growth plan [10]. Alumina - On August 4, the ao2509 closed at 3225 yuan/ton. The alumina market was in a game between potential policy benefits and over - supply expectations, with a decline in market sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 4, the al2509 closed at 20525 yuan/ton. Overseas macro - pressure led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the stable supply - demand fundamentals and low inventory supported the prices, showing a relatively strong performance [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a minor correction on August 1, 2025, with reduced trading volume. Futures prices of various commodities showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1][2]. - The markets of different commodities are in various situations. For example, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the demand for some commodities is affected by the season and policies. Future trends depend on factors like policy implementation, weather conditions, and market sentiment [4][6]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 1, the three major A-share indexes declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3559.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.24% to 2322.63 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1598.4 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 337.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 1, the coke weighted index was weakly volatile, closing at 1603.8, down 57.2. The coking coal weighted index also remained weak, closing at 1055.2 yuan, down 86.3 [2][3]. - Coke is in the fifth round of price increase with thin profits, and its daily production has slightly increased. The overall inventory continues to decline slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is good. For coking coal, the total inventory has increased, but the production - end inventory has decreased significantly and is likely to continue to decline in the short term [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the weakening US economy and improved global supply, the US sugar price declined on August 1. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract had a slight decline at night on August 1. In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil increased by 15.07% year - on - year, reaching 3.406 million tons. India's net sugar production in 2025 - 26 is expected to increase to 30 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline at night on August 1. As of August 1, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2388 tons to 208426 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4390 tons to 177630 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 2319 tons to 43849 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2318 tons to 39716 tons [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, and the growing conditions are good. If the weather continues to cooperate, the expected increase in US soybean production will impact the global soybean supply - demand pattern. Brazil's soybean production in 2025/2026 is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, an increase of 9.4 million tons year - on - year. Domestically, on August 1, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated, and the main M2509 contract closed at 3010 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [5]. Live Pigs - On August 1, the live pig futures price continued to be weak, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14055 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The supply is stable, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and school holidays. The cost of feed has increased, reducing the expected profit of pig farming [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper price still has a slight downward pressure. The short - term support from the "anti - involution" has weakened, and the price will fluctuate more due to major macro - events next week. After the US tariff is implemented, the non - US supply will increase significantly in the second half of the year, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate between 76,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton [7]. Cotton - On the night of August 1, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13565 yuan/ton. On August 4, the base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 400 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 133 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Iron Ore - On August 1, the main 2509 contract of iron ore closed down 0.19% at 783 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory decreased. The iron water production declined, but it remained at a relatively high level. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On August 1, the main 2509 contract of asphalt closed down 0.19% at 3658 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, and the shipment volume increased. Although the rainfall still affects the demand, there is an expectation of demand recovery. The low inventory supports the price, and the short - term price will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On August 1, the log futures market showed high - level pressure. The 2509 contract opened at 822, with a low of 813, a high of 825, and closed at 821.5, with a reduction of 2321 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak [8]. Steel - After the adjustment of the Politburo meeting's statement on "anti - involution", the market's expectation of overall low - price rectification and capacity reduction has cooled. However, the "anti - involution" and "stable growth" expectations still exist, and the steel demand in the off - season is okay. The short - term steel price will follow the market sentiment and fluctuate weakly [10]. Alumina - The raw material supply of alumina may be affected by events in Guinea and the rainy season, and the price is firm. Under the policy of capacity governance, the operating capacity and production growth rate of alumina may slow down. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the upper limit. The production growth rate may slow down, but it will still maintain a high - level operation. The demand is weak due to the off - season and high prices, and the inventory is slightly increasing [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index decreased by 449 yuan/ton to 71025 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 650 yuan/ton. The market trading activity has improved, but the future of mines in Jiangxi is uncertain [11][12].

Report Overview - The report provides market analysis and price trends for various futures products on July 31, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coal, sugar, rubber, etc. [1] Stock Index Futures - On July 31, A-share market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% to 3573.21, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.73% to 11009.77, and the ChiNext Index down 1.66% to 2328.31. The trading volume reached 1936 billion yuan, an increase of 91.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index also adjusted, closing at 4075.59, down 75.65. [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke weighted index was weak on July 31, closing at 1625.7, down 84.4. Coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1100.1 yuan, down 93.1. Coke supply and demand remained in tight balance, with coking plants' costs rising due to coal price increases. The fourth round of price increases was quickly implemented this week, and the fifth round started. Steel mills intended to delay the implementation. Coking coal's macro - speculation sentiment cooled. The supply shortage was expected to ease in mid - August. [3][4][5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by strong sugar production signs in Brazil, ICE sugar futures declined slightly on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures' 2601 contract was pressured by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and lower spot prices, and it trended down on Thursday. Stonex reported that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was expected to be 40.16 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume was expected to be 598.8 million tons. [5] Rubber - Due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand and the year - on - year decline in the European replacement tire market in the second quarter, the spot prices in Southeast Asia decreased. Affected by this and the decline of Japanese rubber, Shanghai rubber futures trended down on Thursday. ANRPC predicted that in June 2025, global natural rubber production would decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption would increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production decreased by 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, and cumulative consumption increased by 1% to 7.715 million tons. [6] Soybean Meal - On July 31, CBOT soybean futures declined due to favorable crop weather in the US and sufficient global supply. The unexpectedly improved good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans weakened the expectation of production reduction. US soybean export sales in the week ended July 24 were higher than expected. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures oscillated. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to increase, pressuring prices. However, the extension of the tariff truce agreement between China and the US supported prices. [7] Live Pigs - On July 31, live pig futures trended weakly. Recently, the slaughter sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of pigs was abundant. Affected by official regulations, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased. High - temperature weather affected terminal consumption, and the pork market was sluggish. The overall market was in a state of loose supply and demand. [8] Palm Oil - On July 31, palm oil futures fluctuated at a high level and then declined. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative line. Ship - surveying agencies showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 decreased compared with the previous month. [8] Shanghai Copper - Due to the US imposing a 50% tariff on some imported copper products starting from August 1, COMEX copper futures crashed, and Shanghai copper was negatively affected. Global copper inventory was rising, and factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar suppressed copper prices. Shanghai copper was expected to continue its downward oscillation. [9] Iron Ore - On July 31, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and declined by 2.38%, closing at 779 yuan. Global iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, port inventory increased slightly, and iron - water production remained high. However, the domestic macro sentiment cooled, and iron ore prices were in an oscillatory state. [9] Asphalt - On July 31, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and rose by 0.3%, closing at 3659 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased. Although demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall, there was still a recovery expectation, and low inventory supported prices. Short - term prices would fluctuate. [9] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton. On August 1, the basis price at the Xinjiang designated delivery warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange was at least 430 yuan/ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 115 lots compared with the previous day. [10] Logs - On July 31, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 824, with a low of 819, a high of 830, and closed at 821.5, with a position reduction of 754 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in supply - demand, and spot trading was weak. [11] Steel - On July 31, rb2510 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3390 yuan/ton. The production and inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased significantly. Macro factors led to the decline, and there was a risk of spot price correction. [11] Alumina - On July 31, ao2509 closed at 3222 yuan/ton. Anti - involution measures had limited impact on clearing old - style alumina production capacity. In August, a 1.2 - million - ton new production line in Guangxi might be put into operation, and some maintenance lines in Shandong might resume production. The supply shortage might ease, but the actual output increase in August was expected to be limited. [12] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 31, al2509 closed at 20510 yuan/ton. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US dollar index remained strong. Domestic anti - involution policies drove up industrial metals. In the short term, the ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased, demand weakened, and social inventory increased slightly but remained low. Shanghai aluminum might oscillate at a high level. [12]