1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 30, 2025, A - share major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index declined. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. 3. Summaries by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% to 11203.03 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62% to 2367.68 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1844.3 billion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index oscillated and closed at 4151.24, down 0.79 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 30, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1704.3, up 70.4. The coking coal weighted index maintained a narrow - range oscillation, closing at 1185.5 yuan, up 57.5 [2][3]. - Coke supply is stable with a slight increase as spot price hikes are implemented, improving coke enterprises' profitability and increasing their production enthusiasm. The demand side shows that although iron - water production decreased slightly month - on - month during the off - season, it remains at a high level. For coking coal, domestic supply has shrunk due to safety inspections in some coal - producing areas, while imports from Mongolia are active with increased customs clearance at the China - Mongolia border. The demand is supported by the improvement in coke enterprises' profits and the high - level iron - water production [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the increase in the sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Group and the uncertainty of Brazil's production report for the second half of July, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fell sharply on July 30. After a large short - term decline, it oscillated and adjusted overnight. As of June, the new sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Group was 320,000 mu, with a total planting area of 2.15 million mu [4]. Rubber - Before the US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on August 1, the market sentiment was cautious. The Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 30 and continued to decline overnight, affected by the 3.5% year - on - year decrease in the European replacement tire market sales in the second quarter of 2025 and the month - on - month decline in China's pickup sales in June [4]. Soybean Meal - On July 30, CBOT soybean futures fell as the weather in the US Midwest was expected to be favorable for crops. The unexpectedly improved good - condition rate of US soybeans weakened the expectation of a soybean production decline. Brazil's soybean exports in July were expected to be 12.05 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated and closed higher on July 30. The abundant supply of imported soybeans led to large - scale oil - mill crushing, resulting in high soybean meal production and increased inventory. However, the extension of the China - US tariff truce agreement for 90 days supported the price. Future attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and soybean imports [5]. Live Pigs - On July 30, the live - pig futures price oscillated weakly. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. Meanwhile, due to high - temperature weather, the terminal consumption was weak, and the market for pork sales was sluggish. The overall live - pig market was in a state of loose supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation, the slaughtering rhythm, and the weight of live pigs [6]. Palm Oil - On July 29, palm oil continued to oscillate with a slightly reduced amplitude. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with long upper and lower shadows. The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on the tariff - quota method for palm oil trade. The zero - tariff policy is expected to increase the demand for palm oil in the food industry. Short - term attention should be paid to the specific zero - tariff quota [7]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper oscillated weakly. The macro - situation at home and abroad suppressed the copper price. The sharp month - on - month decline in US durable - goods orders, the unresolved EU - US tariff policy, and the upcoming third - round China - US tariff negotiations increased overseas risk - aversion sentiment. On the supply side, although there were issues such as the potential shutdown of the QB mine, the global mining - smelting contradiction was still intense, and the US copper import tariff might lead to potential oversupply. On the demand side, it was the off - season for terminal consumption, and the operating rates of domestic enameled - wire machines and copper - rod cable enterprises declined. The global copper inventory continued to rise, although the inventory in domestic exchanges decreased slightly to 73,000 tons. However, the low domestic inventory and policy expectations provided some support for the copper price [8]. Iron Ore - On July 30, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed down 0.44% at 789 yuan. The global iron - ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Steel - mill profits were acceptable, and the iron - ore demand remained resilient. The short - term iron - ore price may oscillate at a high level [8]. Asphalt - On July 30, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 1% at 3650 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared to July, and the supply shrank. Affected by rainy weather, the demand recovery was slower than expected. The short - term price will fluctuate [9]. Logs - On July 30, the 2509 log contract opened at 835.5, with a minimum of 825, a maximum of 835.5, and closed at 825, with a reduction of 489 lots. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and macro - market sentiment [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. On July 31, the minimum basis price of cotton in Xinjiang's designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 101 lots compared to the previous day [10]. Steel - On July 30, rb2510 closed at 3315 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3483 yuan/ton. The coking - coal spot market continued to be strong with a narrowing increase. With the rising cost, there was an expectation of a fifth - round price hike for coke, which strongly supported the steel price. Steel - mill profits recovered significantly, and there might be a slight incentive to increase production. In general, the steel market may see an increase in supply and demand, rising costs, and a favorable fundamental situation. However, the risk of price adjustments due to over - speculation of some varieties should be noted. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly [10]. Alumina - On July 30, ao2509 closed at 3326 yuan/ton. The spot inventory continued to rise, and the pressure on warehouse receipts was expected to ease. In addition to short - term fundamental disturbances, the recent decline in the low - level warehouse receipts also promoted the increase in the alumina price. Short - term positive factors were concentrated, and the low absolute price contributed to the leading increase this week. The short - term market sentiment was still bullish. However, in the medium term, the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse, and the sustainability of the alumina price increase was questionable [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 30, al2509 closed at 20,625 yuan/ton. The decline of the aluminum price slowed down, and it maintained a range - bound oscillation. The trading in the aluminum market was light, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase, and the spot market was relatively abundant. It was the off - season for consumption, and downstream enterprises mainly had rigid demand with limited trading volume [11].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 29, A-share market's three major indices rose collectively, with Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 2406.59 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1803.2 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index showed a strengthening trend on July 29, closing at 4152.02, up 16.2 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 29, the weighted coke index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1656.9, down 35.4; the weighted coking coal index maintained a consolidation trend, closing at 1170.5 yuan, down 43.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the spot price at ports decreased, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton from July 29, 2025. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises transferred costs to steel mills, and the overall start - up of coking enterprises was stable. After the previous price increase, steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel was generally over 200 yuan/ton, but after the rapid price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants began to sell actively [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang area decreased by 118 yuan to 1331 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak. Some traders lowered prices due to the fear of high prices after the futures limit - down. Some steel mills in Tangshan and Tianjin accepted the fourth price increase of coke. Currently, coking enterprises' production profit is in a loss of about 50 yuan/ton [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Boosted by the rising crude oil price, US sugar rebounded on Monday. Affected by the rise of US sugar, short - sellers closed positions, driving the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to rise on Tuesday. At night, the contract fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Analysts expect Brazil's central - southern region to have a sugarcane crushing volume of 48.3 million tons in the first half of July, a sugar output of 3.3 million tons, and an ethanol output of 2.19 billion liters in July, with year - on - year increases of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Tuesday. At night, it continued to consolidate and closed slightly higher. In June 2025, China's car tire dealer price composite index was 94.06, down 0.51% month - on - month; the truck and bus tire dealer price composite index was 99.08, down 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Soybean Meal - In the international market on July 29, CBOT soybean futures fell. The weather forecast showed lower temperatures and periodic rainfall in the US Midwest this week, enhancing the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. As of the week ending July 27, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.05 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. Sufficient imported soybeans and high crushing volume in oil mills led to high soybean meal production and increased inventory, and the weakening of the US soybean market weakened cost support, so the soybean meal price may continue to be weak [7]. Live Pigs - On July 29, the live pig futures price was weak. Recently, the slaughtering sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of live pigs was abundant. High - temperature weather led to weak terminal consumption, and the consumption of pork was insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig market is in a stage of increasing supply. As of the end of June, the number of fertile sows was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level, laying a foundation for abundant pig supply in the second half of the year [8]. Palm Oil - On July 28, palm oil fluctuated widely and then tested the support level again. The main contract P2509 closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, closing at 8970, up 0.27%. According to CIMB Securities, if Indonesia implements the B50 biofuel regulation, its domestic palm oil consumption demand may increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of its crude palm oil output in 2024. However, since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [9]. Shanghai Copper - The approaching deadline of US tariff policies and the expected unchanged Fed interest rate are negative for copper prices. Fundamentally, supply is loose, and demand is weak. Inventory is at a low level. Technically, there is a possibility of a short - term trend reversal. Overall, copper prices will oscillate weakly, but the downward space may be limited due to low inventory [10]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,870 yuan/ton. On July 30, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 70 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Iron Ore - On July 29, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.63% at 798 yuan. The global iron ore shipment increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. Iron ore demand remained resilient, and the short - term price may oscillate at a high level [11]. Asphalt - On July 29, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.78% at 3619 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall. The short - term price will fluctuate [11]. Logs - On July 29, the log futures contract 2509 opened at 828, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 838.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 1049 lots in positions. The spot market price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [11][12]. Steel - On July 29, the rb2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3503 yuan/ton. The steel market strengthened, possibly related to rumors of anti - involution and real estate meetings. The spot market quotation and trading strengthened, and the market's resistance to price drops increased, but market participation is difficult due to macro news [12]. Alumina - On July 29, the ao2509 contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The market sentiment driven by policies conflicts with the fundamentals. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is weak. In the short - term, the market sentiment may reverse, and the operation risk increases. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure is loose, and the price cannot deviate from the fundamentals for a long time [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 29, the al2509 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. With the approaching of the tariff suspension expiration date on August 1, the Fed's end - of - month interest - rate meeting, and important domestic economic meetings, the impact of macro events on the market should be noted. Fundamentally, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the spot trading is average. The accumulation of social inventory is within the seasonal range, and the low inventory level supports the price [13].

Market Performance Summary - On July 28, A-share market indices rose: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% to 3597.94, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% to 11217.58, and ChiNext Index up 0.96% to 2362.60. Trading volume reached 1742.3 billion yuan, down 45 billion from Friday [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range fluctuation on July 28, closing at 4135.82, up 8.66 [1]. - On July 28, the coke weighted index returned to weakness, closing at 1623.9, down 138.9; the coking coal weighted index fell back after hitting resistance, closing at 1136.8 yuan, down 118.8 [1]. - On July 28, palm oil had a wide - range fluctuation and rebounded from the bottom, with the main contract P2509 closing up 0.11% at 8946 [4]. - On July 28, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.75% to close at 786 yuan [7]. - On July 28, the asphalt 2509 main contract fell 1.05% to close at 3569 yuan [9]. - On July 28, rb2510 closed at 3248 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3397 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities dropped 50 yuan/ton [10]. - On July 28, ao2509 closed at 3427 yuan/ton [10]. - On July 28, al2509 closed at 20615 yuan/ton [11]. - On July 28 night session, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14150 yuan/ton [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coal and Coke - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a notice on position limits for coking coal futures due to excessive and rapid price increases, which may have overdrawn market bullish factors [2]. - The National Energy Administration's coal production verification notice implies a shift from supply - contraction expectation to reality, bringing significant bullish changes to the coal - coke industry's supply - demand logic [2]. Sugar - Concerns about increased supply led to a decline in US sugar on Friday. Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fell on Monday due to factors like large short - term gains and weak US sugar, and rose slightly at night. India may allow sugar exports in the next season, increasing global supply pressure. As of July 22, net short positions of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar increased for the first time in three weeks [2]. Rubber - Eased border disputes between Thailand and Cambodia led to a decline in Southeast Asian spot rubber prices. Shanghai rubber fell on Monday and fluctuated at night. As of July 27, inventory in Qingdao ports showed a slight increase, with bonded inventory decreasing and general trade inventory increasing [3][4]. Palm Oil - From July 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 5.52% month - on - month, with a 6.08% increase in yield and a 0.10% decrease in oil extraction rate [4]. Soybean Meal - International CBOT soybean futures fell on July 28 due to trade uncertainties and slow US soybean export demand. Although the US soybean good - rate dropped to 68%, it's still at a relatively high level. In the domestic market, abundant imported soybeans, high crushing volume, and high inventory pressured soybean meal prices. Future focus is on US soybean weather and import situation [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - On July 28, hog futures prices fell. Currently, the hog market has abundant supply and weak demand. As of the end of June, the national sow inventory was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. Future focus is on policy regulation, hog slaughter rhythm, and weight [6]. Copper - Shanghai copper prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. Supply is tight due to limited overseas mine output, restricted US recycled copper imports, upcoming domestic smelter maintenance, and potential delays in imported scrap copper. Demand has some resilience due to grid investment growth and emerging sectors like new - energy vehicles [6]. Cotton - On the night of July 28, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14150 yuan/ton. The base price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 39 lots. Xinjiang cotton has entered the boll - setting stage, one week earlier than last year [7]. Iron Ore - On July 28, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.75%. Last week, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased slightly, arrivals dropped significantly, port inventory increased slightly, and iron ore demand remained resilient. Short - term prices may oscillate at a high level [7]. Asphalt - In August, asphalt refinery production is expected to decline month - on - month. Affected by rainfall, demand recovery is slower than expected, and short - term prices will fluctuate [9]. Logs - On July 28, the log market faced high - level pressure. Spot prices in Shandong remained unchanged, while those in Jiangsu increased. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [9]. Steel - After the steel price increase last week, steel mill profits improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions, there is a risk of price decline. After the "double - coke" futures limit - down on Monday, the market's speculative sentiment cooled, and steel prices also dropped [10]. Alumina - On July 28, alumina futures prices dropped as market bullish sentiment weakened. Supply is in excess as production capacity has reached a new high this year, imports increased, and domestic inventory rose [10]. Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is at a high level, with limited growth potential. Downstream demand is weak during the off - season, with low开工 rates for die - casting, aluminum rods, and profiles, and cold reception from downstream buyers [11].

Report Summary 1. Market Review - The main cotton futures contract closed with a small negative line this week. The closing price was 14,170 yuan per ton, down 100 points from last week's close [1] 2. News - The improvement of US unemployment data may affect the interest - rate cut policy. Brazilian association data shows a 7% year - on - year increase in cotton production, and consumption is on par with the average of the past five years. In China, high temperatures in Xinjiang this week have affected cotton growth [2] 3. Fundamentals - In terms of supply, it is generally tight. Port inventories are at a 20 - month low, and domestic cotton destocking was evident this week. On the demand side, downstream textile mills are in the off - season, with a declining operating rate. Enterprises are replenishing inventory normally. Cotton inventory decreased by 267 lots this week, and the basis rate is around 8.53% [3] 4. Global Supply and Demand Forecast - The USDA's global cotton supply - demand forecast monthly report shows that in the 2024/25 season, global production, consumption, trade volume, and beginning and ending inventories have all been revised down [5]

Variety Views - On July 25, A-share's three major indices declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33% to 3,593.66, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 11,168.14, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.23% to 2,340.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7873 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index adjusted on July 25, closing at 4,127.16, a decrease of 21.87 [1]. - On July 25, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1,778.4, a rise of 43.9 [1]. - On July 25, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1,283.4 yuan, a rise of 93.8 [2]. Influencing Factors of Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke prices rose and then fell during the day. The third round of price increases in the coking industry was proposed. Coking profits were meager, and daily coking production increased slightly after a continuous decline. Coke inventories decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness increased. Overall, the carbon element supply was still abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained high during the off - season [3]. - Coking coal mine production continued to decline slightly. The spot auction market improved, with rising transaction prices. Terminal inventories increased. Total coking coal inventories decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventories continued to decline. In the short term, inventory reduction was likely to continue. The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the coking coal industry was emerging, and policy implementation should be monitored [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Concerns about increased supply led to a decline in US sugar prices last Friday. Affected by the weakening of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract closed slightly lower in the night session on Friday. As of the week ending July 22, speculators increased their bearish bets on ICE US raw sugar futures and options. Funds increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 6,879 lots to 117,126 lots [3]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber adjusted on Friday. As of July 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory was 210,814 tons, a decrease of 2,102 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 182,020 tons, a decrease of 4,620 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 41,530 tons, an increase of 706 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 37,398 tons, an increase of 707 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean good - rate was lower than expected. August is a crucial period for US soybean production. Funds increased weather premiums, providing strong support for US soybeans at the 1,000 - cent mark. A new round of China - US trade negotiations is upcoming. In the domestic market, on July 25, soybean meal continued its weak trend. Domestic soybean supply was abundant, with high crushing volumes. Soybean meal production was high but sales were limited, resulting in a loose supply. Multiple negative factors, such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' requirements for pig farms to control production capacity and promote soybean meal substitution, are expected to keep the soybean meal market in a weak and volatile state. Future focus should be on US soybean产区 weather and import conditions [4][6]. Live Pigs - On July 25, live pig futures prices rose slightly. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' symposium signaled production capacity regulation, leading to strong policy expectations in the market. In the short term, the live pig futures market may be relatively strong, but in the long term, it will return to fundamental fluctuations. As of the end of June, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. From January to May, the monthly number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month, indicating abundant supply in the second half of the year. Currently, live pig consumption is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand. The overall live pig market has a loose supply - demand situation. Future focus should be on policy regulation, live pig slaughter rhythm, and weight [6]. Shanghai Copper - Fundamentally, the decline in copper ore processing fees indicates raw material shortages. The arrival of the consumption off - season has led to a decline in the operating rate of downstream cable enterprises, and inventories at home and abroad have continued to accumulate. The peak of photovoltaic installations has weakened new - energy demand, suppressing prices. In terms of news, Trump's tariff increases on multiple countries have raised trade concerns, and the dovish remarks of Fed officials have limited impact. Short - term downward pressure remains [6]. Iron Ore - On July 25, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.11% to 802.5 yuan. Last week, the shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly, arrivals dropped significantly, and port inventories increased slightly. Molten iron production decreased slightly but remained high. The policy expectations of "anti - involution" and important meetings have boosted market sentiment. However, iron ore prices have risen significantly recently, and it may be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On July 25, the asphalt 2509 main contract rose 0.78% to 3,615 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants continued to decline, and the planned production of local refineries in August decreased, resulting in a contraction in supply and inventory reduction. Refinery sales increased slightly, but due to rainy weather, demand recovery was slower than expected. Short - term prices will fluctuate [7]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,150 yuan/ton. On July 28, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange was at least 430 yuan/ton, and cotton inventories decreased by 72 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 25, the 2509 log contract opened at 829, with a low of 822, a high of 833.5, and closed at 830, with a decrease of 164 lots in positions. The market is facing increasing pressure at high levels. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 - 820 and the resistance at 850. The spot prices of medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment for the spot market [7][8]. Steel - Recently, the prices of wire rods and screws have been rising. The current market has gone through four stages: sentiment ignition, production reduction support, spot price follow - up, and futures price leading. This rebound coincides with the "anti - involution" movement in multiple industries. The coal mine production inspection notice has strengthened the "anti - involution" expectation, driving up coking coal prices and boosting the sentiment of the black - goods sector. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has increased expectations of demand expansion. Policy expectations and production - reduction themes have amplified price fluctuations, and the futures market has moved faster than the fundamentals. The prices of cyclical products such as coal and steel have reversed the downward trend since last下半年. Steel prices are in a range - bound state with "cost support and demand ceiling." The key to breaking the situation depends on the strength of demand recovery and policy implementation [8][10]. Alumina - Fundamentally, the disturbances in the Guinea mining area are gradually subsiding, and shipments may increase. The import volume of domestic bauxite has rebounded, and port inventories have been steadily accumulating. The domestic supply is relatively abundant, and bauxite prices are generally stable. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of alumina is slightly increasing at a high level, and smelters are highly motivated to produce. In the short term, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the concentrated release of alumina production capacity may be optimized and adjusted in the future, and long - term supply may converge. Overall, the alumina market may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand, and industry expectations are gradually improving [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has approached the industry limit, with only marginal increases. Recently, due to favorable macro - environment factors, aluminum prices have been strong, and smelters have good profits and high operating willingness. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season on downstream industries is intensifying. Although the policy environment provides positive expectations for long - term industry growth and consumption promotion, the short - term weak consumption pressure has led to a slight increase in electrolytic aluminum inventories, a decrease in the proportion of aluminum water, and an increase in ingot production. Overall, the Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and weak demand. Long - term consumption expectations are good, and industry inventories are increasing slightly [10].

Variety Views - On July 24, A-share's three major indexes hit new highs this year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65% to 3605.73, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.21% to 11193.06, and the ChiNext Index up 1.50% to 2345.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 1844.7 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.99 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on July 24, closing at 4149.04, up 29.27 [1]. - On July 24, the coke weighted index oscillated strongly, closing at 1750.3, up 37.2 [1]. - On July 24, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1227.0 yuan, up 87.3 [2]. Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The price of coking coal has been raised, and the second - round price increase of coke spot has been implemented. The weekly start - up rate of coke enterprises has slightly declined, and supply has shrunk. In terms of demand, steel mills' profits are okay in the off - season, and pig iron production has rebounded from a high level. There is support from supply and demand, and coke enterprises' inventory has decreased [3]. - Coking coal: Some coal mines in production areas have limited output due to underground reasons, and some coal mines that were shut down have resumed production. High - frequency data shows that the upstream start - up rate has declined week - on - week, and domestic supply has shrunk. The China - Mongolia border port has resumed customs clearance. After the previous closure and improved market transactions, the port inventory has decreased, and the spot price of Mongolian coal has been raised. Although the start - up of coke enterprises has slightly declined, the increase in steel mills' pig iron production supports real demand [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the U.S. sugar's bottom - fishing and rebound on Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated higher on Thursday. Due to the effect of funds, it continued to rise at night. A commodity research report shows that the estimated sugarcane output in Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season has been adjusted down to 661 million tons (606 million tons from the central and southern regions), reflecting a decline in sugarcane yield per unit and a significant drop in output in the second half of June [3]. Rubber - Recently, heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas has affected rubber tapping, reducing raw material supply and continuously raising spot prices. Affected by this, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher on Thursday. To avoid weather risks, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing Shanghai rubber to continue to oscillate upward at night. In June 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 7.3% year - on - year to 1.01 million vehicles, indicating challenges for automobile manufacturers in the global economic environment. In the first half of 2025, cumulative EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% year - on - year to 5.58 million vehicles [4]. Palm Oil - On July 24, palm oil continued to oscillate higher, hitting new highs. The highest price was 9106, the lowest was 8938, and it closed at 9104, up 1.22% from the previous day. According to GAPKI data, affected by a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia's exports of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year, mainly driven by demand from India and China. The output of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than 4.48 million tons in April but a 7.2% increase year - on - year [4][6]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate at a high level. Macroscopically, the possible tariff agreement between the U.S. and Europe has suppressed risk - aversion sentiment. LME copper closed up after a strong oscillation overnight, which has a positive impact on Shanghai copper. However, the reduced probability of an interest - rate cut in September will put some pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, global copper miners' rush to transport to the U.S. supports the price, and the continuous decline of LME inventory also supports the price. But the cautious downstream transactions in China and the approaching end of long - term orders, along with the possible increase in spot supply, will limit the upward space of the price. Technically, on July 24, the short - term indicators of the Shanghai copper main contract were bullish, with the 5 - day moving average crossing above the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages, the MACD forming a golden cross above the 0 - axis, and the KDJ also forming a golden cross, indicating upward momentum in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - On July 24, the iron ore 2509 main contract closed down 0.55% at 811 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrival volume dropped significantly. Pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level. The policy expectations of anti - involution and important meetings have boosted market sentiment, but the recent large increase in iron ore prices may lead to high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On July 24, the asphalt 2509 main contract closed down 0.28% at 3602 yuan. The start - up rate of asphalt plants continued to decrease this period, the planned output of local refineries in August decreased, supply shrank, inventory decreased, refinery shipments increased slightly, and downstream demand improved. The short - term price will mainly oscillate [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14225 yuan/ton. On July 25, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 45 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. Logs - On July 24, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 824, with the lowest at 818.5, the highest at 835, and closed at 827.5, with a reduction of 604 lots. The pressure at high levels in the market increased. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 - 820 and the pressure at 850. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the support of spot - end prices, import data, and macro - expectations for the spot market [7][8]. Steel - On July 24, rb2510 closed at 3294 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3456 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in the off - season has strong resilience, and steel mills' profits remain at a relatively high level, so the overall output has limited room to decline. For rebar, steel mills' profits are at a relatively high level in the past two years, and their production enthusiasm is high, so the output may increase in the short term. In terms of inventory, after the price rebound, the middle and lower reaches have a certain willingness to replenish stocks, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season is lower than expected. In terms of demand, steel demand maintains resilience. With the continuous fermentation of anti - involution and the news of coking coal mine shutdown, steel prices have continued to rise, further stimulating speculative demand [8]. Alumina - On July 24, ao2509 closed at 3427 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the weekly output of alumina rebounded slightly to 1.708 million tons this week, the operating capacity rose to 89.07 million tons/year, and the start - up rate also rebounded to 80.74%. The national installed capacity decreased from 110.82 million tons/year to 110.32 million tons/year, which may be related to the "capacity reduction" signal. Under the logic of the deviation between the fundamentals and the market, it is necessary to be vigilant about whether the market's high expectations for policies are overdrawn. Once the policy implementation rhythm or intensity falls short of expectations, combined with the continuous resumption of production and the re - easing of supply and demand, the price may still decline from a high level [8][10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 24, al2509 closed at 20760 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, overseas tariffs have been confirmed and are lower than expected, reducing uncertain risks and being beneficial to the recovery of overseas demand. China's "anti - involution" policies have driven up industrial metals, and the long - term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged. Fundamentally, under the release of supply increment and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. In addition, the market's sentiment towards policies such as "anti - involution" and "high - quality development" has cooled recently, and the market has fallen after rising. The short - term aluminum price will mainly decline from a high level. Future attention should be paid to inventory and capital sentiment changes [10].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 23, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to 11059.04 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 2310.67 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1864.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index showed a strong shock on July 23, closing at 4119.77, a环比 increase of 0.81 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - On July 23, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1161.9 yuan, with a环比 increase of 105.7, and the coke weighted index closed at 1717.6, with a环比 increase of 58.8 [3][4] - For coke, good steel - enterprise profits drive some blast furnaces to resume production, high daily hot - metal output supports rigid demand, and the second round of spot price increase has started. For coking coal, the notice on production verification tightens the supply expectation, and the inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate a possible global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's dry climate may add about 3.2 million tons of sugar supply. Although the US sugar price fell, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 23, and continued to rise at night due to capital support [5] Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 23, and fluctuated slightly at night. In June 2025, the global light - vehicle annualized sales reached 93 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 2.1% to 7.73 million vehicles [6] Palm Oil - On July 23, palm oil showed a high - level wide - range shock. The highest price was 9088, the lowest was 8908, and it closed at 8994, up 0.76% from the previous day. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared with the same period last month [7] Shanghai Copper - Sino - US trade relaxation and domestic policies to stabilize the non - ferrous industry boost market sentiment, but the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations before the Fed's July meeting makes the macro - sentiment neutral. The tight supply of mainstream copper supports the price, and the market is in a tight - balance state [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14140 yuan/ton on the night of July 23. On July 24, the lowest basis quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 54 lots [8] Iron Ore - On July 23, the main contract of iron ore 2509 closed down 0.61% at 812 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrivals dropped significantly, while the hot - metal output rebounded. The price may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On July 23, the main contract of asphalt 2509 closed down 0.47% at 3594 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt plants decreased last week, and the low social inventory increased the refinery shipments. The price will fluctuate in the short term [8] Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 841.5 on July 22, with a low of 812.5, a high of 848.5, and closed at 823, with a reduction of 3299 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the spot trading was weak [8][9] Steel - On July 23, rb2510 closed at 3274 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3438 yuan/ton. The rising coking coal price drives up the steel cost, but the steel demand is hard to improve in the high - temperature off - season, and the price increase may slow down [9] Alumina - On July 23, ao2509 closed at 3355 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" policy, bauxite disturbances in Guinea, and low warehouse receipts drive the price up, but the short - term production cut probability is low, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 23, al2509 closed at 20790 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply increases slightly, the downstream operating rate is still weak, and the inventory is in a low - level shock. The current price increase is driven by policies and cost, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to policy implementation and inventory pressure [10][11]

Variety Views - On July 22, A-share's three major indexes continued to rise, hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3,581.86, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 11,099.83, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61% to 2,310.86. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4,118.96, up 33.35 [1] - On July 22, the weighted coke index remained strong, closing at 1,711.6, up 128.3. The weighted coking coal index also maintained its strength, closing at 1,084.9 yuan, up 94.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. After the first price increase by coke enterprises was implemented, they quickly initiated a second one. Coke enterprises are currently at the break-even point in production. The continuous rebound of coking coal prices has put pressure on coking enterprises, so they raised the price of coke, and steel mills have a relatively high willingness to accept it. The profitability rate of steel mills is maintained at around 60%, the profit of blast furnace rebar is about 200 yuan/ton, and the reduction of crude steel production has led to a rebound in steel prices, giving some room for the rebound of raw material prices [3] - The price of prime coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi (A10, S0.45, G70) was raised by 70 yuan to the ex-factory price of 1,210 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is running strongly. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port increased by 54 to 850 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal increased by 35 to 950 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the inventory of upstream coal mines has dropped to 3.3907 million tons, returning to a relatively reasonable level. Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, especially after the price increase, the enthusiasm of coal mines for production is high [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate that the global sugar market may face a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season due to strong monsoons increasing production in India and Thailand. Affected by this and the failure of the futures price to break through the key technical level of 17 cents, long positions were liquidated, causing the US sugar price to fall sharply on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long positions were liquidated, causing the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to decline on Tuesday. Due to short-selling pressure, the contract continued to decline slightly at night. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a month-on-month increase of about 70,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1,434.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In June 2025, China imported a total of 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 492,400 tons [3] Rubber - Heavy rainfall in the Thai rubber-producing area has raised concerns about supply, leading to continuous increases in Southeast Asian spot prices. Affected by this, short positions were liquidated, pushing up the Shanghai rubber futures price on Tuesday. Due to the large short-term increase, the price adjusted at night. In June 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. From January to June, the production increased by 2% year-on-year to 591.668 million pieces. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4][6] Palm Oil - On July 22, palm oil maintained a high-level wide-range oscillation, with the overall average price gradually increasing. The K-line closed as a positive line with a long upper shadow. The highest price of the day was 9,012, the lowest was 8,868, and it closed at 8,926, up 0.18% from the previous day. According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 to 20, 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.19% compared with the same period last month. United Plantations said that in the second quarter, the production of palm oil and palm kernels increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year-on-year respectively; the average price of palm oil increased by 5.6% to 4,361 Malaysian ringgit per ton [6] Shanghai Copper - The anti-involution trading in China continued, with strong long sentiment boosting the copper price. Technically, the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD and KDJ indicators all give bullish signals, providing support for price increases. On the supply side, the strike at a copper mine in Peru has raised concerns about supply, which also supports the copper price. However, attention should be paid to the increase in bonded warehouse inventories and the uncertainty of downstream demand. If the price fails to break through the resistance level of 81,200 yuan/ton, it may face a correction risk [7] Iron Ore - On July 22, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 2.49%, closing at 823 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrivals dropped significantly. The pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level again. Currently, the market sentiment is boosted by the anti-involution and the policy expectations of important meetings, and the short-term trend of iron ore prices will continue to oscillate slightly stronger [7] Asphalt - On July 22, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.42%, closing at 3,609 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased month-on-month. The low social inventory has led to an increase in the sales volume of refineries, and downstream demand has improved. Overall, it fluctuates narrowly following the cost of crude oil [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,235 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. On July 23, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 65 lots compared with the previous day. The growth period of cotton in Xinjiang this year is about 5 - 7 days earlier than last year [8] Logs - On July 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 843.5, with a minimum of 835, a maximum of 846.5, and closed at 838, with a daily reduction of 2,264 lots. After reaching a four-month high of 856.5, the market declined, with increased trading volume and significant position reduction, increasing market pressure. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, and the support of macro expectations for the spot market [8] Steel - On July 22, rb2510 closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,477 yuan/ton. Currently, the favorable factors in the industrial aspect of "anti-involution" and "promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" are being traded again in the market. The trading logic of the black chain has switched to the dual-drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, coupled with the support of real estate policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a work plan for stabilizing the growth of the steel industry. Attention should be paid to the matching degree between the marginal change of pig iron production and the implementation rhythm of policies [9] Alumina - On July 22, ao2509 closed at 3,513 yuan/ton. The bullish sentiment in the market mainly comes from three aspects: the continuous fermentation of the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, the limited supply of spot goods in the market, and the extremely low inventory in delivery warehouses; and the strong support from the demand side due to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In terms of trading, although the inquiries from spot-futures traders for hedging purposes are active, due to the tight supply of spot goods and the quotes of holders not meeting the expectations of buyers, actual transactions are limited. Most holders choose to postpone sales and adopt a wait-and-see attitude [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 22, al2509 closed at 20,900 yuan/ton. In China, a new plan for stabilizing the growth of the non-ferrous metal industry is about to be released, providing support for copper and aluminum. The world's largest hydropower project has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. During the off-season of consumption, the amount of ingot casting has increased, and the recent arrival of spot goods in the market has increased, replenishing market supply. The increase in aluminum prices has significantly suppressed consumption, highlighting the weakness of actual terminal demand, and there is still pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation [10]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 21, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72% to 3559.79, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86% to 11007.49, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% to 2296.88. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 128.9 billion yuan from last Friday [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 4085.61, up 27.06 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1. Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted coke index closed at 1614.2, up 79.5 [3]. - Coking coal: The weighted coking coal index closed at 1024.1 yuan, up 75.8 [4]. 2.2. Other Futures - Zhengzhou sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [5]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher during the day and higher at night. As of July 20, the total inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.28% [6]. - Palm oil: It showed a trend of rising and then falling, closing at 8910, up 0.6% [7][8]. - Shanghai copper: The price was boosted by policies, consumer demand, and supply concerns [8]. - Iron ore: The 2509 main contract rose 2.08% to 809 yuan [9]. - Asphalt: The 2509 main contract rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan [9]. - Logs: The 2509 contract reached a 4 - month high and then fell, with increased volume and reduced positions [9]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 31 lots [10]. - Steel: The rb2510 closed at 3224 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3394 yuan/ton, driven by policy benefits [10]. - Alumina: The ao2509 closed at 3386 yuan/ton, with the price rising due to policy and inventory factors [11]. - Shanghai aluminum: The al2509 closed at 20840 yuan/ton, supported by policies and demand expectations [13]. 3. Market Influencing Factors 3.1. Coal Market - Coke: Spot coking coal prices are rising, some coking plants may cut production, and a second price increase is expected next week. Steel mills' high profits support short - term coke demand [5]. - Coking coal: Domestic mines are复产 slowly, port customs clearance is low, and there is a risk of a large number of Russian coal arrivals in mid - to - late August [5]. 3.2. Other Markets - Zhengzhou sugar: Supported by Coca - Cola's formula change and domestic production data [5]. - Rubber: Affected by unfavorable weather for tapping in Southeast Asia and reduced inventory in Qingdao [6]. - Palm oil: Exports from Malaysia decreased from July 1 - 20 [8]. - Shanghai copper: Influenced by inflation, policies, consumer demand, and supply concerns [8]. - Iron ore: Global shipments decreased slightly, domestic arrivals increased, and steel mills' production remained high [9]. - Asphalt: The plant's operating rate decreased, social inventory was low, and demand improved [9]. - Logs: Import volume decreased, port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [10]. - Steel and non - ferrous metals: Supported by policies such as "anti - involution" and industry structure adjustment [10][11][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends for various commodities. Some are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy expectations and external factors such as tariffs and international market trends [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Commodity **Stock Index Futures** - On July 18, A - share major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1571.1 billion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4058.55, up 24.06 [1] **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: On July 18, the weighted coke index was strongly consolidated, closing at 1527.0, up 19.2. The coking coal price increase led to a decline in coking enterprise profits and insufficient production enthusiasm, resulting in a continuous decline in daily coke output. Although the molten iron in the off - season decreased slightly, the absolute level was at a high point in the year, supporting the daily consumption of furnace materials. The coke inventory of coking enterprises decreased, and the market was optimistic with expectations of price increases [1] - Coking Coal: On July 18, the weighted coking coal index remained strong, closing at 943.2 yuan, up 23.8. Some coal mines had limited production due to underground reasons, and the supply recovery was slow. During the Nadam Fair, Mongolian coal imports were restricted, and the port inventory decreased. As spot transactions improved, coke - steel enterprises increased their inventories, and the futures price fluctuated strongly [2] **Zhengzhou Sugar** - The news that Coca - Cola changed its formula to use cane sugar in the US market supported the futures price. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 18. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China imported 1.0508 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29% year - on - year. As of July 15, speculators reduced their short positions in ICE US raw sugar futures for the second consecutive week [2] **Rubber** - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted on July 18. As of July 18, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,916 tons, a decrease of 673 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2050 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 40,824 tons, an increase of 402 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons [3] **Shanghai Copper** - In the short term, the shortage of the copper ore supply and low processing fees support the price. However, there is an expectation of increased global copper mine production, and supply pressure may gradually appear in the long term. The off - season demand is weak and may continue. The US tariff policy is an important uncertain factor. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the upper pressure level around 79,000 and the lower support level around 77,000 [3][4] **Cotton** - On the night of July 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,230 yuan/ton. On July 21, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 53 lots compared with the previous day [4] **Log** - The 2509 contract opened at 838 on July 18, with the lowest at 824, the highest at 846.5, and closed at 828.5, with a decrease of 625 lots in positions. The market reached a four - month high and then declined, with increased trading volume. The support level is 800 - 820, and the pressure level is 850. From January to June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. The port shipment volume decreased, and the spot trading was weak [4] **Steel** - Policy signals of "anti - involution" production restrictions and expanding domestic demand have led to an increase in the expectation of supply - side contraction in the second half of the year. The black - series futures led the increase, driving up the spot price. However, in the coming week, if there is no new positive news, the pressure for futures long - positions to take profits will increase. After profit recovery, the willingness of electric - arc furnaces to resume production has increased, and the weekly output may stop falling and increase slightly. It is expected to maintain a range - bound trend [5] **Alumina** - The domestic bauxite port inventory is gradually increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Due to the increase in spot and futures prices, smelters' production willingness has increased, and the operating capacity has grown. Although the increase in alumina prices has increased the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants, the high aluminum price still provides good profits, and a capacity replacement project in Yunnan supports the demand for alumina. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is stable [5] **Shanghai Aluminum** - Major producers maintain normal production, and some expanded production capacities are being released. The operating capacity is at a high level. Due to the off - season, the ingot - casting volume has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand from traditional industries is weak, and although emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries are developing rapidly, their demand - pulling effect is limited at present. The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak [6]