Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On March 3, 2026, the A-share market showed a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.57%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 111.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, and the market was affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, international situations, and weather conditions [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On March 3, the A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.68 points, down 1.43%; the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 14022.39 points, down 3.07%; and the ChiNext Index closing at 3209.48 points, down 2.57%. The trading volume reached 3.16 trillion yuan, up 111.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 3, closing at 4655.90, a decrease of 72.77 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 3, the weighted index of coke fluctuated widely, closing at 1703.5, up 56.0 from the previous day [2]. - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 3, closing at 1147.2 yuan, up 44.1 from the previous day [3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight increase. Coke inventory has a slight decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1346 vehicles. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in coal mines. The production of coking coal mines has decreased significantly in the early stage. The spot auction transactions have gradually increased during the week, and the transaction prices have mainly decreased slightly. The terminal inventory has decreased significantly, and there may be a certain degree of replenishment after the Spring Festival. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased significantly, and the production - end inventory has decreased significantly [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and abundant spot supply, the US sugar fluctuated widely and closed slightly lower on Monday. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot quotation and the large short - term increase affected by the technical side, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday. Affected by short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward at night. The industry organization ISMA said that as of February, the sugar production in India in the current market year (starting from October 2025) reached 24.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.43% [4]. Rubber - The escalation of the US - Iran dispute led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The market was worried about whether the global economy would decline, and the global capital market declined significantly. Affected by this and the large increase in futures prices recently, long - position liquidation pressured the Shanghai rubber to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Affected by the concern about the possible global economic recession, the Shanghai rubber continued to oscillate downward at night. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89% [4]. Vegetable Oil and Related Products - The international crude oil market rose strongly due to the war, and the spill - over effect of the oil price increase strongly boosted the vegetable oil market. As of last Thursday, Brazil had harvested 39% of its soybeans, with the harvest progress slower than the same period in previous years. The agency predicted that the soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 would reach 178 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 181 million tons due to the yield loss in Rio Grande do Sul caused by drought [5]. - On March 3, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2836 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has risen rapidly, the soybean meal inventory has increased, the downstream enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, so the spot price has continuously declined under pressure. The US soybeans remain at a high level, and the cost side still provides support for soybean meal [5]. Livestock (Pig) - On March 3, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The supply of suitable - weight live pigs in March shows a loose trend, and the demand for fat pigs is in the off - season. The risk of holding pigs for sale in the market has increased, which has increased the enthusiasm of the breeding side for capacity reduction. The price - holding mentality of retail farmers and group pig enterprises has loosened, and the slaughter rhythm of some leading pig enterprises has accelerated. The supply capacity of suitable - weight standard pigs and medium - large pigs is sufficient. Coupled with the high inventory of breeding sows in the country, the production capacity base supports sufficient supply. At the same time, the breeding efficiency continues to improve, further amplifying the effective supply. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly. On the demand side, the pork consumption after the festival has entered the annual off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are not smooth, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, the demand - side carrying capacity is weak, and the support for pig prices is insufficient. Overall, the live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Palm Oil - On March 3, the overall trend of oils continued to rise. The palm oil futures gapped up and rose for three consecutive days. By the afternoon close, the main contract of palm oil P2605 closed with a positive line with short upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 9028, the lowest price was 8926, and the closing price was 8994, an increase of 1.08% from the previous trading day. As of February 27, 2026 (Week 9), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas across the country was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons from the previous week, an increase of 11.37%; compared with 414,600 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 372,100 tons, an increase of 89.75% [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 102,100 yuan/ton, opened at 103,320, reached a maximum of 103,630, a minimum of 101,270, with a trading volume of 177,900 lots, a position of 198,000 lots, and a settlement price of 102,410 yuan/ton. It opened low and moved lower within the day, oscillating downward. The outer - market London copper and US copper also weakened synchronously, and the inner and outer markets resonated and corrected. The US dollar rebounded, and the funds at the previous high took profits and left the market. Coupled with the downstream's resistance to high prices, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was about 101,725 yuan/ton, with a discount of 375 yuan/ton to the main contract. The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly and remained at a high level overall. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of terminal work and the release of orders, the change of inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the disturbance of macro and geopolitical situations to market sentiment [5]. Iron Ore - On March 2, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.67% and a closing price of 753.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments continued to rise this period, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory was at a historical high, and the molten iron output maintained an increasing trend. However, some steel mills were restricted during the Two Sessions, so the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [5]. Asphalt - On March 2, the main contract of asphalt 2604 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 4.69% and a closing price of 3639 yuan. Recently, some refineries in the region plan to resume production, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory pressure has increased, the downstream rigid demand is weak, and the demand recovery is slow. The short - term asphalt price shows an oscillating trend [5][6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 801 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 797, a maximum of 804, and a closing price of 799.5, with a daily reduction of 46 lots. On March 3, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [6]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,160 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. The cotton inventory increased by 44 lots compared with the previous trading day. The growth of new cotton in Australia is generally good, and most producing areas have entered the late development stage. However, since the area of dry - land crops has decreased compared with previous years, timely rainfall is needed to achieve the expected yield [6]. Steel - On March 3, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3219 yuan/ton. The situation in the Middle East is tense, but the impact on the domestic black - series market is relatively limited. The market is still trading on the expectations of the Two Sessions and the supply - demand structure relationship in the industrial end. As the downstream terminal market gradually resumes work, the rigid - demand replenishment increases, and the market speculation sentiment has heated up. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point and the driving force of policies [6]. Alumina - On March 3, ao2605 closed at 2807 yuan/ton. The ore price has continued to decline, and the cost support for alumina has weakened. Since the beginning of this year, there have been successive production cuts on the alumina supply side, and the pressure of oversupply has been slightly relieved, but the overall oversupply pattern has not changed. At the same time, the total inventory of alumina has continued to accumulate, suppressing the price, and the upward space of the main contract is limited. On the demand side, the market consumption enthusiasm is not high after the festival, the resumption process of alumina enterprises is slow, and some markets are still on holiday. The resumption situation needs to be observed after the Lantern Festival [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 3, al2604 closed at 23,905 yuan/ton. Overseas, attention is continuously paid to the evolution of the situation in the Middle East. The transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, the shipping cost has increased significantly, and the energy facilities in Middle - Eastern countries also have certain safety risks. The market is worried about disturbing the aluminum supply - demand balance, and the risk - aversion sentiment is still relatively strong. In China, the Two Sessions are approaching, and the market is concerned about the subsequent guidance. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio remains at a low level during the year, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, the performance continues to improve. The receiving of goods in all major downstream consumption areas has improved to a certain extent, and there is a certain mentality of buying on the rise. The downstream continues to resume work, the receiving of goods increases, and the overall trading atmosphere improves [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 2, 2026 - **Stock Indexes**: A-share market had mixed performance. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47% to 4182.59, Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.20% to 14465.79, and ChiNext Index dropped 0.49% to 3294.16. The trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 539.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. CSI 300 index closed at 4728.67, up 18.02 [1][2]. - **Futures Contracts** - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke weighted index closed at 1660.8, up 22.9; Coking coal weighted index closed at 1113.5 yuan, up 12.8 [2][3]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2605 oscillated higher during the day and slightly lower at night. The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 184.4 million tons, a reduction of 2.3 million tons from the previous forecast, mainly due to the decrease in India's production forecast from 32.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons. The sugar consumption in 2025/26 is expected to be 177.7 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 6.7 million tons [4]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber futures oscillated higher during the day and slightly higher at night. The EU passenger car market sales in January 2026 decreased 3.9% to 799,625 units [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1161.75 cents per bushel, down 0.71%. The US soybean export inspection volume was better than expected. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2826 yuan per ton, down 0.25% [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The main live - pig contract LH2605 closed at 11220 yuan per ton, down 2.31%. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures rebounded for two consecutive days. The main contract P2605 closed at 8898, up 1.34%. The Malaysian palm oil production in February 2026 decreased, and the export volume also decreased [5]. - **Other Futures** - **Copper**: Shanghai copper main contract opened at 104,230, closed at 103,850. The spot copper was in a discount pattern [7]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15175 yuan per ton at night, and the inventory increased [7]. - **Log**: The log 2605 main contract opened and closed at 800, with a daily position increase of 811 lots [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract rose 0.87% to 754.5 yuan. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2604 main contract rose 5.98% to 3529 yuan. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 closed at 3067 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3219 yuan per ton. The steel price may oscillate slightly stronger [8]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 closed at 2773 yuan per ton. The alumina supply surplus situation remains, and there is pressure on the price [8]. - **Aluminum**: The al2604 closed at 24431 yuan per ton. The aluminum market is affected by geopolitical factors, with supply running smoothly and demand improving [9]. 2. Core Views - **Stock Market**: The A - share market showed a mixed trend on March 2, 2026, with significant trading volume expansion [1]. - **Futures Market** - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures rose. The production and demand of coke have changed, and the coking coal spot market was weak in February [2][3][4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The prices of sugar, rubber, soybean meal, and palm oil futures were affected by various factors such as geopolitics, production, and demand. The live - pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4][5]. - **Industrial Metals**: The prices of copper, aluminum, and iron ore futures were influenced by factors like supply, demand, and geopolitics. The steel and asphalt prices are expected to oscillate, and the alumina price has an upper - limit pressure [7][8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market on February 27, 2026 showed mixed performance among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising, the Shenzhen Component Index slightly falling, and the ChiNext Index dropping significantly. Trading volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day [1]. - Various futures products have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal futures are affected by factors such as enterprise profitability, production capacity, and downstream demand; the price of Zhengzhou sugar is affected by supply - demand relationships; the price of rubber is affected by technical factors; the price of soybean meal is affected by international and domestic supply - demand and weather conditions; the price of live pigs is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; the price of copper shows a volatile and strong pattern; the price of iron ore is in a volatile state; the price of asphalt is in a volatile operation; the price of logs is waiting for market verification after full resumption of work; the price of cotton is gradually recovering; the price of steel is in a volatile state due to weak supply - demand; the price of alumina is in a weak and volatile state; the price of aluminum is in an interval - oscillating state [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On February 27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to 4162.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 14495.09 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.04% to 3310.30 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.51 trillion yuan, a decrease of 504 million yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 index oscillated and sorted, closing at 4710.65, a decrease of 16.23 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On February 27, the coke weighted index was still weak, closing at 1643.8, a decrease of 16.2; the coking coal weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 4.8. The coke enterprises' profitability is average, and the operating rate has declined slightly. There is still an expectation of price reduction. The downstream steel mills' profits have recovered, but the rebound of molten iron production is limited. Steel mills mainly consume their own inventories and have average restocking enthusiasm, maintaining a demand - based procurement rhythm. In 2025, China's total coke exports were 794.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.53%. In December, coke exports were 100.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.95% and a year - on - year increase of 80.18%. After the Spring Festival, coal mines resumed production quickly. The import of coking coal from Mongolia has recovered to a high level, but the port inventory pressure is still large. In 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. In December, the total import of coking coal was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 28.57% [2][3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of supply surplus, the US sugar oscillated and closed slightly lower on February 27. Due to long - position liquidation, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward at night. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 to be 1.22 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 1.63 million tons. The production in India and Thailand is lower than expected. Speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 9,251 lots to 245,863 lots as of the week ending February 24 [5][6]. Rubber - Due to large short - term gains and technical factors, the Shanghai rubber continued to oscillate and adjust at night on February 27. As of February 27, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 400 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 114,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 52,416 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 202 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 50,601 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 202 tons [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on February 27, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1170 cents per bushel, a 0.6% increase. The US biofuel policy is beneficial to the demand for soybean oil, supporting the price of US soybeans. The soybean export sales meet market expectations. In South America, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil is slower than in previous years, dragging down export expectations, while Argentina has received rainfall, improving crop growth conditions. Domestically, on February 27, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2833 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease. After the Spring Festival, the oil mills' operation gradually recovers, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. The port soybean inventory is abundant, and the overall supply is loose. The soybean meal futures market's buying sentiment has recovered, but the weak fundamentals of soybean meal suppress the upward space of the futures price [6]. Live Pigs - On February 27, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11,485 yuan per ton, a 0.79% increase. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival, the large - scale pig enterprises accelerated the rhythm of weight - reducing slaughter, and the previously accumulated pig sources were gradually released, resulting in a loose market supply and a significant increase in slaughter pressure. As of the end of January 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.58 million, a slight month - on - month decrease but still at a high level year - on - year. The breeding efficiency continues to improve, further increasing the effective supply. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, the pork consumption enters the off - season, the downstream white - strip pork sales are not smooth, the slaughter enterprises' operating rate is low, and the demand side's ability to undertake is weak, providing insufficient support for the pig price [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2604 contract closed at 103,920 yuan per ton, with the highest price of 104,170 yuan per ton and the lowest price of 101,780 yuan per ton during the day. The trading volume was 157,500 lots, and the open interest was 203,800 lots. It opened low and closed high, showing a volatile and strong pattern. The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was 101,980 yuan per ton, a discount of 1,940 yuan per ton compared to the main futures contract. The cable operating rate this week was 27.72% (a month - on - month increase of 12.52 percentage points), and SMM expects it to rise to 58.36% next week. The spot trading is light due to the slow resumption of work [6]. Iron Ore - On February 27, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a 0.27% increase, closing at 750.5 yuan. Recently, the iron ore shipment has significantly increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory is at a historical high. Some steel enterprises in the north have received notices of phased emission reduction and control during the Two Sessions, and the downstream demand for steel has not recovered. Steel mills are still cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating state [8]. Asphalt - On February 27, the asphalt 2604 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a 0.03% decrease, closing at 3346 yuan. Recently, some refineries in the region plan to resume production, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory pressure has increased, the downstream rigid demand is weak, the market trading atmosphere is average, and the short - term asphalt price shows an oscillating operation [8]. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 795 on February 27, with the lowest price of 790.5, the highest price of 799, and closed at 798.5, with an increase of 307 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Although the overseas market raised prices before the Spring Festival, the domestic spot market is stable, waiting for verification after full resumption of work [8][9]. Cotton - On the night of February 27, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15,295 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 35 lots compared to the previous trading day. As of February 26, the domestic cotton market has not fully recovered, and the business of import and export ports, the hanging orders of cotton trading enterprises, and the inquiry/purchase of textile mills have gradually started. The sales of Brazilian cotton, Australian cotton, American cotton, and Kazakh cotton are continuously picking up [9]. Steel - The supply and demand of rebar have changed. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, the output has shrunk again and is at a relatively low level, but the inventory level is high, and the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. The demand for rebar is weak. Although the weekly apparent demand has increased month - on - month, it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industries have not resumed work, so the demand recovery has a time lag. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weakly stable, the inventory continues to increase, the steel price is under pressure, but the policy expectation is increasing. The operation logic of the steel market switches between reality and expectation, and the trend maintains an oscillating state [9]. Alumina - After the Spring Festival, the alumina futures have been running weakly, and the spot market traders' quotes have a slight premium, mainly supported by the expectation of post - festival restocking and the short - term contraction of the supply side. Fundamentally, as the Lantern Festival approaches, the previously overhauled and shut - down enterprises will gradually resume production, and the industry operating rate is expected to rise steadily, and the overall supply remains rigid. In general, the expectation of long - term supply contraction cannot shake the current high - inventory reality, and the alumina price lacks the driving force for a trend - upward rise, maintaining a weak and oscillating state [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - Macroscopically, the macro - drive has cooled down before and after the Spring Festival, and the over - heated precious metals, copper, and market sentiment have become mild, weakening the drive for aluminum. The impact of overseas tariff adjustments during the Spring Festival is also relatively mild, and the domestic market is in a policy window period, and the performance of metals after the Spring Festival is a mild transition. Fundamentally, the supply - side pressure has increased, the aluminum plants are operating smoothly, the ratio of molten aluminum to ingots has dropped to the lowest level of the year before and after the Spring Festival, the supply of aluminum ingots has increased, while the downstream demand has reduced inventory due to the high - price pressure of aluminum, and the social inventory has accumulated a lot, reaching the highest level in the past five years year - on - year. The downstream resumption of work is relatively slow, generally after the tenth or fifteenth day of the first lunar month, and the current support is insufficient. In some fields such as the automobile, power, and photovoltaic industries, the performance is stable, and the resumption of work and production is earlier than in other industries. In general, after the Spring Festival, the macro - sentiment is mild, and the fundamental drive is limited, and the aluminum price is in an interval - oscillating state [10].

Group 1: Market Index and Overall Market Conditions - On February 26, 2026, the three major A-share indexes showed mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to close at 4146.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to close at 14503.79 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.29% to close at 3344.98 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2556.8 billion yuan, an increase of 75.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on February 26, closing at 4726.87, a decrease of 9.01 [2]. Group 2: Futures Market - Energy and Metals Coke and Coking Coal - On February 26, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1651.4, a decrease of 15.3. The weighted index of coking coal trended weakly, closing at 1105.3 yuan, a decrease of 26.4 [2][3]. - For coke, port spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1480 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Coking enterprises maintained normal production, with inventory accumulating but pressure weakening. Demand was average as some steel mills received temporary emission reduction notices and had general sales [4]. - For coking coal, the price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang area decreased by 30 yuan to 1280 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rose by 4 yuan to 1010 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 3 clean coal fell by 15 yuan to 1085 yuan/ton. Supply was gradually recovering, and demand was slow to pick up as coking enterprises mainly consumed pre - holiday inventory [4]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper, CU2604, fluctuated at a high level. The opening price was 102880 yuan/ton, the closing price was 102670 yuan/ton. The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was 101795 - 102065 yuan/ton, with a wider discount to the futures. Downstream demand was weak, and inventory was increasing, restricting the upward space of copper prices. However, the global low - inventory pattern provided bottom support [5][6]. Aluminum and Alumina - On February 26, ao2605 of alumina closed at 2820 yuan/ton. The weekly operating capacity of alumina enterprises increased, inventory accumulated, and the price faced downward pressure. The market was quiet with limited trading [7]. - On February 26, al2604 of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23845 yuan/ton. The macro - environment improved, and the supply side was stable with increasing ingot production and accumulating social inventory. The demand side was gradually recovering but still weak [7][8]. Iron Ore - On February 26, the main contract of iron ore 2605 closed flat at 748.5 yuan. Shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and port inventory was at a high level. Steel mills were cautious in purchasing due to emission reduction notices and weak downstream demand, so the price was in a volatile trend [6]. Group 3: Futures Market - Agricultural Products Sugar - The Indian sugar production outlook was dim, offset by the rise of the Brazilian real. The US sugar fluctuated slightly lower on Wednesday. Affected by factors such as lower - than - expected Indian production and higher spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on Thursday and continued to rise at night. The estimated net sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 29.292 million tons, a 12% year - on - year increase [4]. Rubber - Due to weak global light - vehicle sales data in January and large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber futures adjusted slightly lower on Thursday and continued to adjust at night. In January 2026, the global light - vehicle sales decreased by 2% year - on - year to 6.63 million vehicles, with sales in the US, Western Europe, and China all declining [4][5]. Soybean Meal - On February 26, the CBOT soybean main contract fell slightly. The US soybean export sales net increase was 407,100 tons in the week ending February 19. Brazil's soybean harvest progress was 30% as of February 19, behind last year's 39%. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2834 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. Supply was expected to increase, and the price was supported by import costs but restricted by weak fundamentals [5]. Palm Oil - On February 26, the palm oil futures adjusted downward after failing to break through in the previous two days. The main contract P2605 closed at 8714 yuan, a 1.51% decrease. From February 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month [5]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15265 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 13 lots. The import cotton basis was mostly stable, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices widened, with active foreign cotton transactions [6]. Pork - On February 26, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11395 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decrease. The supply side had pressure as some group pig enterprises planned to sell more, and the number of fertile sows was still high. The demand side was in the off - season, and the market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Group 4: Other Futures Asphalt - On February 26, the main contract of asphalt 2604 closed down 0.12% at 3357 yuan. Some northern refineries planned to resume production, supply was expected to increase, and inventory pressure was rising. Terminal demand was weak, and the price was in a volatile trend [6]. Logs - On February 26, the main contract of logs 2605 opened at 798, closed at 793.5, and increased 190 lots in position. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [6][7]. Steel - On February 26, rb2605 closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3218 yuan/ton. The steel market was in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". Low inventory, restricted supply, and positive policies provided support, but demand recovery was slow, and there were overseas uncertainties [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 25, 2026, A-share market indices rose: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.72% to 4147.23, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.29% to 14475.87, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.41% to 3354.82. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2481.2 billion, up 262.8 billion from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index remained strong on February 25, closing at 4735.89, up 28.34 [2] - The coke weighted index had a wide - range shock on February 25, closing at 1680.8, up 38.1; the coking coal weighted index had an interval consolidation, closing at 1139.8 yuan, up 25.4 [2][3] - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed an oscillating trend on February 25, with the 2605 contract closing slightly down, and then rising at night due to short - covering. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year [4] - Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on February 25 due to tight raw material supply and increased spot prices. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 610,000 tons to 6.677 million tons, a 10.05% increase [4][5] - CBOT soybean futures rose on February 25. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slow, and its February export is expected to be 10.69 million tons. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal rose by 1.8% to 2831 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to remain loose [5] - The main contract of live pigs rose by 1.78% to 11465 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [5] - Palm oil futures adjusted and then oscillated upward on February 25. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 25 decreased compared with the same period last month [5] - Shanghai copper futures showed a strong upward trend on February 25. The downstream demand is recovering, the supply is tight, and the inventory is expected to decrease [5] - Iron ore futures rose on February 25. The shipping volume has increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - Asphalt futures fell on February 25. The supply is seasonally shrinking, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose at night on February 25. The inventory increased, and the yarn price started to rise [6] - Log futures opened at 792 on February 25, with a closing price of 796 and an increase in positions of 1477 hands. The domestic spot market is stable [6][7] - Steel futures rebounded on February 25. The downstream has not fully resumed work, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [7] - Alumina futures closed at 2870 yuan/ton on February 25. The production capacity is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure [7] - Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23835 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is good, the inventory is high, and the demand is gradually recovering [7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On February 25, A - share market indices rose, and the trading volume increased [1] - The CSI 300 index remained strong, closing at 4735.89, up 28.34 [2] Coke and Coking Coal - The coke weighted index had a wide - range shock on February 25, closing at 1680.8, up 38.1; the coking coal weighted index had an interval consolidation, closing at 1139.8 yuan, up 25.4 [2][3] - Most coke enterprises maintained normal production during the Spring Festival, with some inventory backlog. The terminal demand was stagnant during the Spring Festival, and steel mills had weak willingness to replenish inventory. For coking coal, state - owned mines have basically resumed production, private mines will gradually resume production, and Mongolian coal ports will resume normal customs clearance after the festival. The market trading was scarce during the holiday [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the stabilization of US sugar, the increase in spot prices, and the off - season of consumption, the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar showed an oscillating trend on February 25, closing slightly down, and then rising at night due to short - covering. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year [4] Rubber - Due to adverse weather in Thailand and Indonesia during the leaf - falling period, the raw material supply tightened, and the spot price increased. Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on February 25 and at night. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 610,000 tons to 6.677 million tons, a 10.05% increase [4][5] Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose on February 25. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slow, and its February export is expected to be 10.69 million tons. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal rose by 1.8% to 2831 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to remain loose [5] Live Pigs - The main contract of live pigs rose by 1.78% to 11465 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the culling progress of sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures adjusted and then oscillated upward on February 25. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 25 decreased compared with the same period last month [5] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper futures showed a strong upward trend on February 25. The downstream demand is recovering, the supply is tight, and the inventory is expected to decrease [5] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures rose on February 25. The shipping volume has increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] Asphalt - Asphalt futures fell on February 25. The supply is seasonally shrinking, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose at night on February 25. The inventory increased, and the yarn price started to rise [6] Logs - Log futures opened at 792 on February 25, with a closing price of 796 and an increase in positions of 1477 hands. The domestic spot market is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6][7] Steel - Steel futures rebounded on February 25. The downstream has not fully resumed work, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [7] Alumina - Alumina futures closed at 2870 yuan/ton on February 25. The production capacity is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23835 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is good, the inventory is high, and the demand is gradually recovering [7]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 24, 2026 - A-shares had a good start in the Year of the Horse. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to 4,117.41, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.36% to 14,291.57, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.99% to 3,308.26. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.2184 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4,707.54, a环比 increase of 47.14 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Energy and Chemicals - The coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1,641.3, a环比 decrease of 38.1. The coking enterprises maintained normal operation, but the inventory increased due to the impact of Spring Festival logistics. The demand from steel mills decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season [2][4]. - The coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1,115.5 yuan, a环比 decrease of 18.7. The coking enterprises maintained the previous load, the inventory decreased significantly, and the overall supply - demand pattern was still weak [3][4]. - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated,冲高回落 and closed slightly down. Due to excessive rainfall in major sugar - producing states in India, the sugar production may be lower than expected, which will limit India's exports [4]. - The Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose significantly on February 24. The supply of raw materials decreased as the main producing areas in southern Thailand gradually reduced production in late February and other producing areas entered the off - season. The ANRPC predicted that the natural rubber market would be in short supply in 2026, with demand expected to grow 1.7% to 1.56 million tons and production expected to grow 2.4% to 1.52 million tons [4][5]. - The palm oil futures opened higher on the first trading day after the holiday but ended with a downward oscillation. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council predicted that the crude palm oil price in March would fluctuate between 4,000 and 4,300 ringgit per ton (about $1,026 - $1,103). Supply tightness, increased demand from India, and the strong price of US soybean oil would support the price, but the abundant global soybean supply and increased soybean oil exports might limit the increase [5]. 2.2. Agricultural Products - The CBOT soybean main contract oscillated and closed up on February 24. In Brazil, the soybean harvest progress was 30% as of February 19, behind last year's 39%. In Argentina, rainfall improved the soybean growth conditions. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal M2605 contract closed at 2,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. After the holiday, oil mills gradually resumed work, and the supply was generally loose [5]. - The main hog contract LH2605 closed at 11,265 yuan/ton on February 24, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous trading day. The supply was abundant due to the concentrated slaughter of large hogs after the holiday and the high inventory of sows. The demand was in the off - season [5]. 2.3. Metals - The main Shanghai copper contract closed at 101,510 yuan/ton, showing a strong oscillation pattern. The market sentiment was supported by the expectation of post - holiday resumption of work and the premium of spot over the main contract. The LME three - month copper decreased slightly by 0.49% [5]. - The iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and decreased by 1.79% on February 24, closing at 740.5 yuan. The iron ore price was expected to oscillate in the short term as the steel mills' resumption of production might drive the demand for raw material replenishment [5]. - The asphalt 2604 main contract oscillated and rose by 1.67% on February 24, closing at 3,348 yuan. The asphalt market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - The log 2605 main contract had a certain performance on February 24. The domestic log spot market was stable before the holiday, and the subsequent price was affected by factors such as spot price, import data, and inventory [6]. - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton at night on February 24. The cotton inventory increased by 12 lots compared with the previous trading day. Some textile enterprises in Anhui resumed work after the holiday, and the cotton planting and production in Brazil might decrease more than expected [6]. - The steel rb2605 closed at 3,027 yuan/ton and hc2605 closed at 3,195 yuan/ton on February 24. The steel price was expected to be weak and stable in the short term due to the weak performance of coking coal and iron ore markets and the low demand from downstream terminals [6]. - The alumina ao2605 closed at 2,829 yuan/ton on February 24. The alumina market was stable, with sufficient supply and smooth logistics [6]. - The Shanghai aluminum al2603 closed at 23,635 yuan/ton on February 24. The global macro - environment was neutral to positive, but the seasonal supply - demand imbalance might lead to a high inventory, which would suppress the price [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 13 - On February 13, the last trading day before the long - holiday, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.28% to 14100.19 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.57% to 3275.96 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on February 23, closing at 4660.41, a decrease of 59.17 from the previous period [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - On February 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1687.6, a rise of 17.3 from the previous period. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1134.7 yuan, a decrease of 2.0 from the previous period [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight decline. Coke inventory has a small increase, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron is at a low - season level, and steel profit is average. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has a small increase. The spot auction transaction is inversely proportional to the price fluctuations of the futures. Under the influence of volatile futures prices, the transaction price mainly shows a small decline, and the terminal inventory has a large increase. The total inventory of coking coal has a large increase, and the production - end inventory has a slight increase. The winter - storage demand is coming to an end [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price has been oscillating upward recently. Excessive rainfall in major sugar - producing states in India may lead to a decline in sugarcane production, which may limit India's sugar exports. During the long - holiday, the US sugar price oscillated upward. Brazil's geographical and statistical institute expects the sugarcane planting area in 2026 to be 9.495363 million hectares, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.7% decrease from the previous year. The sugarcane output is estimated to be 706.96119 million tons, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.6% increase from the previous year. Five trading houses estimate that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 market year (ending in September) will be between 28.5 - 29 million tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - During the long - holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price oscillated upward. ANRPC indicates that with the accelerated growth of the automobile industry in emerging and developed economies, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production increased by 1.4% in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. During the long - holiday, the Japanese rubber price oscillated upward [5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - During the Spring Festival, the main contract of CBOT soybeans showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation. Multiple positive factors such as China's commitment to purchase more US soybeans, dry weather in some parts of Argentina, a record - high soybean crushing volume in the US in January, and the EPA's plan to submit a biodiesel blending quota proposal for 2026 have boosted the US soybean price. Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and a bumper harvest is certain, with export expectations at a historical high. The USDA Outlook Forum expects the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season to increase to 85 million acres, indicating a long - term loose supply. In the domestic market, oil mills are gradually resuming work after the festival, the operating rate is rising, port soybean inventory is abundant, and soybean supply is loose. The soybean arrival volume from February to March will increase compared with the previous period, and the subsequent crushing volume will gradually rise, resulting in a generally loose supply of soybean meal. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America and the soybean arrival volume [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - After the festival, large - sized pigs are being concentratedly sold in the market, and the back - logged pig sources are continuously released, resulting in a generally loose supply. As of the end of January, the inventory of fertile sows in the country reached 39.58 million, slightly decreasing month - on - month but still at a relatively high level year - on - year, which supports sufficient supply. The improvement in breeding efficiency further amplifies the effective supply. After the festival, pork consumption has officially entered the off - season. The previous pickling and stocking are all over, and the household holiday stock has not been digested yet. The fresh - meat market's digestion capacity has declined, and it has entered the annual off - season. The demand side has weak support for the market. It is recommended to focus on the reduction progress of fertile sows and the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - During the long - holiday, the outer - market Malaysian palm oil maintained a range - bound oscillation, rising 2.88% compared with the pre - festival closing price. According to SPPOMA data, from February 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 23.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 22.24% month - on - month. According to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 20 was 863,358 tons, a decrease of 8.9% compared with the same period last month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - During the 2026 Spring Festival, the Shanghai copper market was closed from February 14 to February 23. On February 13, the main contract closed at 100,380 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,780 yuan/ton, in the range of 99,400 - 102,350 yuan/ton, with a position of 140,000 and a trading volume of 140,000. The outer - market LME copper showed a V - shaped oscillation, first falling and then rising, in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 US dollars/ton. At the beginning of the holiday, the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the price; at the end of the holiday, the expectation of Asian resumption of work and the tight supply supported the price to rebound, with a slight increase compared with the pre - festival price. The domestic main contract had no trading and no position change during the holiday, and the price was anchored to the outer - market and the expectation of resumption of work. The global copper mine is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee is at a low level, which provides bottom support. The inventory accumulation during the domestic holiday is limited. Before the holiday, there was profit - taking at a high level, and the low liquidity during the holiday amplified the outer - market fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption - of - work rhythm, LME/bonded inventory, and the Fed's policy signals [5]. 2.8 Cotton - Before the festival, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,740 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Internationally, the US cotton price rose, and the weekly line closed in the positive [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - Before the festival, affected by the low profit rate of steel mills and weak demand, the growth rate of molten iron was slow. After the festival, the resumption of work of steel mills may drive the replenishment demand for raw materials, and the iron ore supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - Currently, the asphalt supply is seasonally shrinking, refineries are operating at a low load, and the terminal demand is weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price is oscillating [6]. 2.11 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 787 on Friday, with a minimum of 785, a maximum of 791.5, and closed at 779.5, with a daily increase in positions of 242 lots. On February 13, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Although the outer - market price has increased, the domestic spot market was stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - market sentiment on the price [6]. 2.12 Steel - After the festival, the demand will gradually recover and is unlikely to explode suddenly. With the convening of important meetings, the positive macro - policy expectations are released, and the market sentiment is warming up. Coupled with the rigid - demand replenishment of terminal enterprises after resuming work, the main task of the market before the Two Sessions is to digest the social inventory. Mid - to - late March is the real demand verification period and the key point of the market [6]. 2.13 Alumina - The market was relatively stable during the Spring Festival. Before the festival, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly, and the supply improved marginally. After the festival, attention should be paid to the production - start and production - reduction efforts. However, limited by the limited demand increase and the unopened export window, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the industry supply - demand situation is still in excess. If the supply side fails to continue to shrink, alumina will still be in a weak situation [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - In 2026, the supply - side changes of global electrolytic aluminum are significantly disturbed. The planned new production capacity in Indonesia, India and other places exceeds 2 million tons, but the production - start process is slow due to disturbances in power costs, infrastructure, etc. The domestic production capacity utilization rate is close to saturation, and the room for further production increase is limited. In the short term, the supply - demand situation will remain in a tight - balance state, which may continue to support the aluminum price. The demand side is expected to be stable and improving. Aluminum has strong financial and macro - attributes, and the pressure effect of the off - peak and peak seasons on the fundamentals is weakened. The aluminum price will generally remain at a high level, with a wider fluctuation range, and the seasonality and regularity may be weakened [6].

Report Summary Core View - On February 12, 2026, the A-share market showed a differentiated trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating and consolidating, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index showed stronger trends. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets increased by 159.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market expectations, and international market conditions. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4134.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 14283.00 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.32% to close at 3328.06 points. The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4719.58, up 5.76 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On February 12, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, closing at 1669.9, down 4.4 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated weakly, closing at 1132.1 yuan, down 5.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, with daily production slightly decreasing and inventory slightly increasing. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off - season, with average steel profit levels. The daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the spot auction price is inversely proportional to the futures price, with a slight decline in the成交 price. The total inventory of coking coal has increased significantly, and the winter storage demand is coming to an end [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expectation of global supply surplus, the US sugar continued to decline on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on Thursday due to the decline of US sugar, the reduction of spot prices, and the approaching long - holiday, which led to long - position closing. As of February 10, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 57.5996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.67%; the sugar content was 12.45%, a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the sugar production rate was 10.66%, a year - on - year increase of 0.171%; the sugar production was 6.1404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.17% [4]. Rubber - According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, automobile sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Affected by this and the holiday effect, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly lower on Thursday. In January, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in January were 1.544 million, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on February 12, the CBOT soybean futures price closed higher. The market expected the improvement of the trade prospects, which promoted the demand for US soybeans and boosted the price. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and the harvesting progress is accelerating. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 11.71 million tons in February. The US Department of Agriculture maintained Argentina's soybean production at 48.5 million tons. The rainfall in Argentina's main soybean - producing areas this week is expected to relieve the drought. In the domestic market, on February 12, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. Before the festival, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, the output of soybean meal increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The procurement of imported soybeans for March shipments is basically completed, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in April and May will increase significantly. The pre - festival demand boost effect decreases, and the expectation of supply relaxation is postponed [5]. Live Pigs - On February 12, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11540 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, as the pre - festival slaughter window narrows, the price - holding mentality of the breeding end has loosened, and the incremental slaughter operations of group pig enterprises and individual pig farms have increased. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still at a high level, and there is an excess pressure on the suitable - weight pig sources. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the phenomenon of residents' stocking increases, which provides phased support for the pig price, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the medium term, the inventory of breeding sows and piglet replenishment are both at high levels, and the subsequent slaughter volume is guaranteed [5]. Palm Oil - On February 12, before the festival, funds in palm oil futures continued to reduce positions to avoid risks, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative K - line. The highest price was 8932, the lowest price was 8782, and the closing price was 8782, down 1.39% from the previous trading day. According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 is expected to be 273,472 tons, a decrease of 16.1% compared with the same period last month. From February 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 7.58% month - on - month [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) closed at 102,330 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 103,730, a low of 101,840, a trading volume of 114,000 lots, and a position of 147,600 lots. The core driving factors are: macro - level, the US dollar is weak, there is an expectation of domestic stable growth, and funds prefer industrial metals; supply - side, the increment of copper mines is limited, the processing fee is at a low level, and the cost support is strong; spot - market, the price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper is 102,180 yuan/ton (+750), and the price of SMM No. 1 copper is 102,040 yuan/ton (+725), and the linkage between futures and spot is strengthening [5]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,850 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand, the enterprise operating rate remains at a high level, and the inventory of gauze has decreased significantly [5]. Iron Ore - On February 12, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.2% and a closing price of 762 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased compared with the previous period, the domestic arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the steel mill's replenishment demand gradually ended, and the growth space of molten iron is limited. The iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On February 12, the main contract of asphalt 2604 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 3343 yuan. The asphalt supply remains at a low level, the refinery inventory pressure is not large, the terminal demand continues to shrink, the pre - festival spot trading is清淡, and the asphalt price shows a fluctuating trend in the short term [6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 776 on Thursday, with a minimum of 776, a maximum of 788, and a closing price of 779.5, with a daily reduction of 830 lots. On the last trading day before the festival, attention should be paid to the support from the spot end and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 12, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Although the overseas market has raised prices, the domestic spot market is stable before the festival, which needs to be verified after the festival. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on prices [6]. Steel - On February 12, rb2605 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3218 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream real estate, infrastructure, and construction sites are on full - scale holiday, the core demand for rebar enters a seasonal vacuum period, and rigid - demand procurement is almost stagnant. Traders and downstream enterprises have basically completed their pre - festival stocking, and their willingness to store for the winter is extremely low, with only a small amount of rigid - demand replenishment, which is difficult to support the price increase. The demand side has become the core factor suppressing the futures market [6]. Alumina - On February 12, ao2605 closed at 2808 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina market is in a delicate balance state, with multiple contradictions intertwined on both the supply and demand sides. On the one hand, the industry inventory pressure continues to be high, and the total inventory of in - factory, in - transit, and downstream raw materials has climbed to the highest level in the same period in the past five years, highlighting the hidden danger of supply surplus. On the other hand, the industry actively adjusts production capacity, the launch of new production capacity is postponed, and positive signals appear on the demand side, which support the market to maintain a stalemate pattern in the short term, and the core contradiction in the market is gradually changing [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 12, al2603 closed at 23,610 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will show a weak - fluctuating pattern before the festival to digest the inventory pressure, but the medium - and long - term bottom support is solid, and the deep - decline space is limited. In the short term, the seasonal inventory - accumulation process is not over, and the high inventory will continue to suppress the price. In the long term, the strategic position of electrolytic aluminum in the green energy transformation is stable, and the new - energy vehicle, photovoltaic, and grid - investment fields will continue to provide structural growth demand. Overall, after the pre - festival sentiment and weak - reality correction, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - and long - term under the pattern of tight supply - demand balance [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 11, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to 4131.99, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35% to 14160.93, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08% to 3284.74. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2001.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 123.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4713.82, a decrease of 10.48 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: The weighted index of coke showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1672.6, a decrease of 14.0 from the previous day. Spot price increases have been implemented, and coke enterprises' profits have recovered, with a slight increase in production enthusiasm. However, environmental protection restrictions still have an impact, and the weekly high - frequency data shows a slight increase in the operating rate of coke enterprises. Steel mills' pre - holiday inventory replenishment is basically over [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal showed a weak consolidation, closing at 1134.9 yuan, a decrease of 3.1 from the previous day. The scope of Spring Festival shutdowns in domestic coal mines has expanded this week, and domestic coal supply has entered a seasonal low, with production decreasing month - on - month. Spot supply is tight, and high - frequency data shows that Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, with continuous replenishment of imported resources. Coke enterprises' inventory preparation is basically completed, and they mainly purchase on demand, with pig iron production stabilizing at a low level [3][4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expectation of global supply surplus, US sugar oscillated and declined on Tuesday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long - position liquidation pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to oscillate downward on Wednesday. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said on Tuesday that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season starting in October is expected to reach a record high of 9.41 million short tons, helped by the increase in cane sugar production. The sugar inventory/use ratio is estimated to be 15.9%, much higher than the 13.5% level that the USDA usually considers sufficient for the market. The estimated sugar import volume in the 2025/26 season is 2.24 million short tons, lower than the 3.39 million short tons in the previous season, which will be one of the lowest import volumes in recent years [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Due to the decrease in raw material supply, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia were raised today. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the large short - term increase, affected by the technical side, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted at night, with varieties rising and falling. The latest data shows that the natural rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire in January 2026 was 163,000 tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with 166,000 tons in the same period last year and a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Vietnam's rubber export volume in January was 204,954 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1% but a year - on - year increase of 27.3% [4]. 2.4. Palm Oil - On February 11, the palm oil futures continued to operate weakly before the festival. The market oscillated within the daily range. By the afternoon close, the main contract P2605 of palm oil closed with a doji candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 8950, the lowest price was 8886, and the closing price was 8950, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous trading day. According to the POC 2026 industry conference, driven by the low inventory level, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in 2026 is expected to reach 16 million tons, while the annual total output may be slightly lower than 20 million tons. Global palm oil industry analyst Thomas Mielke expects the price of Malaysian RBD palm olein to be between $1000 - $1200 per ton in the first half of 2026 and between $1100 - $1350 per ton in the second half of 2026 [5]. 2.5. Soybean Meal - International Market: On February 11 (Wednesday), CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The USDA's February supply - demand report was as expected, only slightly increasing the South American soybean production forecast. The report raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast from 178 million tons last month to 180 million tons, higher than market expectations. Agricultural consulting firm AgRural said that as of February 5, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress had reached 16%, higher than 15% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 11.71 million tons, significantly increasing the supply capacity to the international market. - Domestic Market: On February 11, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2773 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.43%. Before the festival, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, the soybean crushing volume was relatively high, the soybean meal output increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The purchase of imported soybeans for the March shipment has been basically completed, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in April and May will significantly increase. The pre - holiday demand boost effect has declined, and the expectation of loose supply has been continuously postponed. It is recommended to focus on the South American weather changes and the soybean arrival volume in the future [5]. 2.6. Live Pigs - On February 11 (Wednesday), the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, as the pre - holiday slaughter window narrows, the price - holding mentality of the breeding side has loosened, and the incremental slaughter operations of group pig enterprises and individual pig farms have increased. Moreover, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still at a high level, and the suitable - weight pig sources are facing over - supply pressure, with the overall market supply tending to be loose. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the phenomenon of residents' inventory replenishment has increased, providing phased support for pig prices, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the future, focus on the inventory of breeding sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.7. Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract opened at 101,660, reached a high of 102,530, a low of 101,510, and closed at 102,180, with a settlement price of 101,930. The trading volume was 94,600 lots, and the open interest was 159,000 lots. It oscillated slightly stronger within a narrow range during the day and closed slightly higher at the end of the session. Downstream industries (cables, home appliances, infrastructure) have successively stopped work, the spot demand has weakened, and the trading has been light. The average price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper was 101,430 (- 550, - 0.54%); SMM No. 1 copper was 101,100 - 101,530 (average price - 410). The futures were stronger than the spot, the basis weakened, and the funds were more cautious approaching the Spring Festival. The LME copper in the external market also strengthened slightly, and the domestic sentiment was relatively stable. In the future, pay attention to the US CPI data, which may affect the overall rhythm of the US dollar and non - ferrous metals [5]. 2.8. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,815 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 60 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand, and China's imported cotton volume in 2025 reached a five - year low [5]. 2.9. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 772 on Wednesday, with a low of 772, a high of 780.5, and a close of 777, with a daily reduction of 553 lots. There are still two trading days before the festival. Pay attention to the support from the spot side and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 11, the spot market quotes for logs: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Although the external market has raised prices, the domestic spot market is stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. In the future, pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for prices [6]. 2.10. Iron Ore - On February 11, the main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.07% and a closing price of 762.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore in this period decreased month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the steel mills' inventory replenishment demand gradually ended, and the growth space of pig iron production was limited. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11. Asphalt - On February 11, the main asphalt contract 2604 oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.51% and a closing price of 3373 yuan. The asphalt supply remained at a low level, the refinery inventory pressure was not large, the terminal demand continued to shrink, the pre - holiday spot trading was light, and the short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating operation [6]. 2.12. Steel - On February 11, rb2605 closed at 3054 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3228 yuan/ton. As the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, more steel enterprises have stopped production for maintenance. Although steel enterprises are in the process of shutdown and maintenance, the downstream terminal demand has basically stagnated, the steel spot inventory has continued to accumulate, the supply and demand are difficult to form a large gap, the supply and demand basically maintain a weak balance structure, most merchants are cautious and wait - and - see, and the situation of having prices but no transactions is obvious [6]. 2.13. Alumina - On February 11, ao2605 closed at 2842 yuan/ton. Downstream electrolytic aluminum plants maintain full production to provide rigid demand, but the construction in terminal fields such as construction has declined due to the approaching Spring Festival. On the cost side, the prices of bauxite and caustic soda have declined, and the cost - side support has weakened. The overall supply - demand pattern of alumina still maintains a relatively loose pattern, the upward driving force is limited, and the alumina price maintains an oscillating operation in the low - level range [6]. 2.14. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 11, al2603 closed at 23,660 yuan/ton. On the macro side, the market atmosphere has continued to weaken before the Spring Festival, precious metals have continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level, and the capital sentiment is relatively mild. Continue to pay attention to the dynamics of the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the aluminum - water ratio continues to decline, the ingot - casting volume increases, the social inventory continues to accumulate, and it is continuously at a high level year - on - year. On the demand side, the performance continues to shrink, the logistics and transportation have stagnated, downstream enterprises in Central China have made sporadic inventory replenishment, large - scale traders in South China have received goods, and the overall trading has slowed down. Large - scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain demand, the orders of small and medium - sized factories continue to shrink, and the scope of shutdowns and production cuts in small and medium - sized factories has expanded, with limited driving force for prices [6].

Report Summary on February 11, 2026 Overall Market Performance - On February 10, A-share market's three major indices fluctuated. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 4128.37, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.02% to 14210.63, and ChiNext Index fell 0.37% to 3320.54. The total trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.1249 trillion yuan, a decrease of 145.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4724.30, up 5.24 [2]. Commodity Futures Coal - Coke and Coking Coal - On February 10, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1670.5, down 28.4. The coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1129.8 yuan, down 19.3 [2][3]. - For coke, port spot prices were stable. Supply was normal, but demand was average, with poor sales and increasing inventory pressure. For coking coal, prices in some areas decreased. Supply tightened as private mines went on holiday, and demand weakened as steel mills' profits were poor and winter - storage replenishment was mostly finished [4]. Sugar - Due to the dollar index hitting a one - week low, the US sugar rose on Monday. Supported by the US sugar's rebound and higher spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose on Tuesday and had a narrow - range night session [4]. Rubber - As the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas entered the off - season, supply decreased, and with rising crude oil prices, spot prices increased. The Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on Tuesday and continued to rise at night. However, with expected pre - holiday arrivals and completed downstream stocking, Qingdao port's inventory increased. As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory in Qingdao was 6.068 million tons, up 2.55% [4][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on February 10, CBOT soybean futures rose due to optimistic export demand and strong soybean oil futures. The USDA raised Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180 million tons. Domestically, on February 10, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2734 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Pre - holiday soybean crushing was high, and inventory rose. By the end of the 6th week of 2026, domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.0626 million tons, up 7.98%. It's suggested to track South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Hogs - On February 10, the main live hog contract LH2605 closed at 11470 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. Supply was abundant as pre - holiday selling increased, and there was an oversupply of suitable - weight pigs. Demand was in the seasonal peak, but in the medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance would persist. It's important to monitor sow inventory and large - scale pig farm selling rhythms [5]. Palm Oil - On February 10, palm oil futures continued to decline. The main contract P2605 closed at 8940, down 0.82%. In January, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 11.44%, inventory decreased by 7.72%, production decreased by 13.78%, and imports decreased by 2.93% [5]. Copper - The main copper contract had an intraday high - and - low fluctuation. Pre - holiday liquidity decreased. Spot prices were firm, and downstream pre - holiday stocking improved. Externally, a stronger dollar due to reduced Fed rate - cut expectations pressured the market, while domestic purchase - reserve expectations provided support [5]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14680 yuan/ton, with an inventory increase of 106 lots. Textile enterprises mainly made rigid purchases, and Indian cotton trading was active due to tariff agreements [5][6]. Iron Ore - On February 10, the main iron ore contract 2605 closed flat at 761.5 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased, port inventory increased, and steel mills' replenishment was mostly finished. Short - term prices were expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On February 10, the main asphalt contract 2603 closed flat at 3343 yuan. Supply was low, refinery inventory pressure was small, but terminal demand was shrinking, and pre - holiday trading was light. Short - term prices would fluctuate [6]. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 770.5 on Tuesday, with a low of 765, a high of 778.5, and closed at 773.5, with 754 lots of position reduction. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port coniferous log inventory decreased for three weeks. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [6][7]. Steel - On February 10, rb2605 was at 3052 yuan/ton and hc2605 was at 3220 yuan/ton. The domestic steel market was in holiday mode, downstream demand stopped, and pre - holiday prices were stable. Most construction enterprises would resume work after the Lantern Festival [7]. Alumina - On February 10, ao2605 was at 2835 yuan/ton. Demand was supported by high electrolytic aluminum operating rates but with a slower purchase rhythm. Supply was abundant, and inventory continued to increase. There was support near the cost line [7]. Aluminum - On February 10, al2603 was at 23515 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, the market atmosphere cooled. Supply was stable, ingot production increased, and social inventory accumulated. Demand continued to contract, and the impact on prices was limited [7].