Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 20, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.01% to 4113.65 points, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.97% to 14155.63 points, and ChiNext Index declined 1.79% to 3277.98 points. The total trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.8044 trillion yuan, up 72 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 Index adjusted downward, closing at 4718.88, down 15.58 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke weighted index trended weaker, closing at 1675.7, down 60.9. Coking coal weighted index also showed weakness, closing at 1130.5 yuan, down 52.5. Coke's first - round price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with general coking profits and a slight decline in daily production. Coking coal production has increased significantly, and terminal inventory has risen substantially [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil - Related (not mentioned directly but related products)**: - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated downward, with a decline of 0.03%, closing at 3139 yuan. Asphalt production increased, inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not significant. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: Affected by the continued decline in spot prices, the price of Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on Tuesday and continued to decline at night. Indian sugar consumption is expected to be around 28.5 million tons or slightly lower [4]. - **Rubber**: Due to favorable weather in Thailand and Indonesia and a significant increase in imports in December 2025, the price of Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday. It rebounded slightly at night. China's rubber tire exports and natural and synthetic rubber imports increased year - on - year in 2025 [4]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures closed lower on January 20, with the main contract closing at 1053 cents per bushel, down 0.31%. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 rose 0.33% to 2736 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal inventory reached a six - month low, but it may recover due to sufficient soybean supply [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures price rose slightly within the range on January 20. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, up 1.16% from the previous day. Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14620 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory decreased by 11 lots. India's minimum support price for cotton increased by about 8% this year [5]. - **Pig**: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11550 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm of farmers may accelerate, and the supply of pigs is still high, while the demand for large pigs in the south is weakening [5]. 2.3 Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, closing at 101230, up slightly. The weakening US dollar index provided some support, but the market was cautious due to the approaching Spring Festival. There are expectations of production cuts in the smelting industry, and downstream demand is in the off - season [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated downward, with a decline of 1%, closing at 789.5 yuan. Both the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Steel**: On January 20, rb2605 closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to snow and ice on the roads, construction at downstream sites was restricted, and transportation was blocked, leading to weakening terminal demand. Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2671 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina production continued to increase, while demand was weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The price is under pressure [7]. - **Aluminum**: The al2603 contract closed at 23950 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while demand shows structural differentiation. The price is likely to remain high and fluctuate [7]. 2.4 Others - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 fell for two consecutive days. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 19, 2026, the A-share market showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.70%. The trading volume of the three major markets decreased significantly. Different futures varieties also showed different trends affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 19, the A-share three major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to close at 4114.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to close at 14294.05 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.70% to close at 3337.61 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2732.5 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 324.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4734.46, a环比 increase of 2.58 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 19, the coke weighted index was narrowly sorted, closing at 1722.8, a环比 decrease of 17.8; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within the range, closing at 1180.2 yuan, a环比 decrease of 8.5. The comprehensive absolute price index of coke was 1381.7 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the ex-warehouse price of first-class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily consumption of coke decreased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased, and the daily molten iron output decreased. The port inventory of coke increased, the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased. The domestic coking coal spot price index increased, the price of Luliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of Ganqimaodu raw coal increased. The daily output of clean coal from 523 sample mines and 110 sample coal washing plants increased, while the daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises decreased. The inventory of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased, the port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased [2][3][4][5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the significant increase in imports in December 2025 and the downward adjustment of spot quotes, the short side suppressed the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract, which fluctuated slightly lower on January 19. The short side continued to suppress the contract at night, causing it to fluctuate lower. China's sugar imports in December were 580,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.9%, and the cumulative imports from January to December were 4.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [5] Rubber - The latest tariff threat issued by the United States to Europe over the Greenland issue made investors uneasy. Long positions were closed, causing the Shanghai Rubber to fluctuate lower on January 19 and continue to decline at night. In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the United States was 240.001 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Among them, the imports of passenger car tires increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 145.42 million, the imports of truck and bus tires increased by 6% year-on-year to 51.73 million, the imports of aircraft tires decreased by 8% year-on-year to 227,000, the imports of motorcycle tires increased by 15% year-on-year to 3.25 million, and the imports of bicycle tires decreased by 3% year-on-year to 5.41 million [5][7] Palm Oil - On January 19, the palm oil market showed slight fluctuations. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative doji. The highest price was 8684, the lowest price was 8606, and the closing price was 8648, a 0.30% decrease from the previous day. As of January 16, 2026 (week 3), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 746,100 tons, a 1.01 million-ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 1.37%; a 264,300-ton increase from 481,800 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 54.86% [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on January 19, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1056.25 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase from the previous trading day. Brazil began to harvest a record soybean crop, and as of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in the 2025/26 season was 2%, higher than the same period last year. Brazil exported 1.3073 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, higher than the export volume in January last year. It is expected that Brazilian soybeans will dominate the global soybean export business in the next few months, and the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans will continue to limit the increase in soybean prices. In the domestic market, on January 19, the soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. China's soybean imports in 2025 exceeded 110 million tons for the first time, and the high transaction rate of imported soybean auctions supplemented the market supply. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter is expected to be loose. Currently, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level in the same period of the year, and the abundant soybean supply and high inventory pattern continue to restrict the upward space of soybean meal prices. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America and the arrival volume of soybeans in the future [7] Live Pigs - On January 19, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11,705 yuan/ton, a 2.3% decrease. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the annual slaughter volume in 2025 was 719.73 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; the year-end live pig inventory was 429.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; the annual pork output was 59.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The data shows that the supply of live pigs remains at a high level, and the output reduction is relatively slow. Both live pigs and pork are in a situation of loose supply. On the demand side, the southern cured meat production is coming to an end, and the demand for large pigs has weakened. However, with the Spring Festival approaching in about a month, the market has gradually started stocking for the Spring Festival. In addition, the large-scale snow and rain weather across the country may lead to a short-term shortage of live pig sources in some areas. It is recommended to focus on the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large-scale pig enterprises, and the actual fulfillment of peak-season demand in the future [7] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper closed down, showing a wide range of fluctuations during the day and a weak close. The core drivers were inventory accumulation, weak demand, and the cooling of tariff expectations. The opening price was 101,030, the highest price was 101,860, the lowest price was 99,620, and the closing price was 101,180; the settlement price was 100,650. The trading volume was 240,300 lots, and the open interest was 217,400 lots. In terms of inventory, the Shanghai Copper inventory was 338,000 tons. The arrival of domestic goods increased, and downstream procurement was sluggish. Inventory accumulation suppressed short-term prices. In terms of demand, high prices inhibited procurement, the price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and the demand support from the processing end was insufficient. On the supply side, five smelters were under maintenance in January, and the refined copper output may decline; there were still concerns about overseas copper mines. In terms of policy sentiment, the United States postponed the imposition of tariffs, cooling the market sentiment and suppressing short-term speculative demand [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 14,465 yuan/ton on the night of January 19. The cotton inventory decreased by 8 lots compared with the previous trading day. The operating rate of downstream spinning mills was relatively high, but the profit was not high [8] Iron Ore - On January 19, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 2.58%, and the closing price was 794 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased环比, the arrival volume continued to increase, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, some steel mills in certain regions are still in the annual maintenance stage, and the molten iron output has decreased. The short-term iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend [8] Asphalt - On January 19, the main contract of asphalt 2603 fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.29%, and the closing price was 3142 yuan. The asphalt output increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not large. As the weather cools down, the market's rigid demand will become dull, and it will mostly turn into stocking demand. The short-term asphalt price shows a fluctuating trend [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 780 on January 19, with the lowest price of 763, the highest price of 780, and the closing price of 763. The daily increase in positions was 1621 lots. The price fell on heavy volume today, and attention should be paid to the support from the spot end. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan per cubic meter, a 10-yuan increase per cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship. In the future, attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro expectations and market sentiment on the price [8][9] Steel - On January 19, rb2605 closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The China Meteorological Administration upgraded and launched a level-three emergency response for cold snaps, freezing, and blizzards. With the arrival of the cold snap, outdoor construction has been affected, and the demand for steel this week may weaken. At the same time, steel mills may increase the intensity of maintenance and production reduction, and the replenishment demand will weaken, suppressing the prices of raw fuels. In the short term, the steel market has weak supply and demand, and the cost support is unstable. Steel prices may fluctuate weakly [9] Alumina - On January 19, ao2605 closed at 2733 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, and the operating capacity remains high, with continuous high production and unabated supply pressure. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weak in the off-season. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is piling up, with high loading, unloading, and storage capacity pressures, and low picking-up efficiency. Some goods are stranded at the platform. At the same time, the delivery warehouses in various places are fully booked and goods are arriving one after another, and the in-transit and platform inventories are increasing. The social inventory of alumina and the raw material inventory of aluminum plants continue to accumulate. In the spot market, the inventory pressure of holders has increased, and their willingness to sell has increased. Goods have flowed into the market, but downstream buyers only maintain rigid demand procurement and have a strong fear of falling prices, resulting in poor overall transactions. Alumina is under upward pressure [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 19, al2603 closed at 24,090 yuan/ton. From a macro perspective, China's GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, reflecting the strong resilience and momentum of the economic operation. In terms of capital, the situation in the Middle East has eased, and the United States has postponed the imposition of tariffs on key mineral sectors, but attention should be paid to the trade game between Europe and the United States over the Greenland issue. The sentiment continues to cool down, and the aluminum price continues to retreat. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is normal, and the social inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a high level compared with the same period last year. The demand side still faces pressure, and the aluminum price continues to retreat. Downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases, and the situation of traders taking delivery has improved. Large-scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain level of demand, while small and medium-sized plants have shrinking orders, and some plan to reduce or stop production before the Spring Festival [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 16, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.26%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3361.02, down 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3056.8 billion yuan, an increase of 118 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4731.87, down 19.56 [2] 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 Index showed a weakening trend on January 16, closing at 4731.87, a decrease of 19.56 from the previous day [2] 2.2 Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted index of coke futures closed at 1718.8, down 26.2. Rising raw coal prices have increased the production costs of coke enterprises, leading to a contraction in industry profits. Some regions have implemented environmental protection restrictions, slowing down the start - up of coke enterprises. The downstream demand for coke is weak due to high inventory and limited profits in the steel industry [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal futures closed at 1176.0 yuan, down 16.6. The price of Shanxi main coking coal is 1352 (+24) yuan/ton. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 65 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week [3][4] 2.3 Sugar Futures - The number of sugar ships waiting to be loaded at Brazilian ports has increased, and the market is boosted by the expectation of a short - term recovery in demand. The Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2605 showed a slight decline in the night session on January 16 [4] 2.4 Rubber Futures - Due to long - position liquidation, the Shanghai rubber futures showed a downward trend in the night session on January 16. As of December 16, the inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1900 tons to 122850 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3900 tons to 108390 tons [5] 2.5 Palm Oil Futures - On January 16, the palm oil futures market rebounded. The main contract P2605 closed at 8674, up 1.12%. From January 1 - 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 18.24% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 17.53 - 18.64% [5] 2.6 Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1056.25 cents per bushel on January 16, up 0.36%. The USDA January supply - demand report showed a pattern of loose supply and declining exports. Domestically, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The supply in the first quarter will remain loose [5] 2.7 Live Pig Futures - On January 16, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 11950 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The current supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term due to low slaughter enthusiasm, but there is still supply pressure in the future. The demand for live pigs is weakening in the south and showing some recovery in the north, but the overall peak - season consumption effect is weakening [5] 2.8 Copper Futures - The main Shanghai copper futures contract continued to adjust in the night session on January 16, closing at 100280 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The strengthening of the US dollar index, weak domestic demand, and a decline in market sentiment are the main driving factors [5] 2.9 Other Futures - Cotton: The main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14538 yuan/ton on January 16. The inventory increased by 337 lots from the previous day. Downstream yarn mills purchase as needed [6] - Logs: The main log futures contract 2603 closed at 778.5 on January 16. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [6] - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract 2605 closed down 0.49% at 812 yuan on January 16. The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [6] - Asphalt: The main asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 1.48% at 3130 yuan on January 16. The production has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure is not large, and the demand is stable [6] - Steel: The winter storage mentality of the steel market is cautious. Most of the winter storage policies announced so far are post - settlement, and the willingness of traders to store is low [6] - Alumina: The raw material bauxite price has declined, and the domestic port inventory has increased slightly. The domestic alumina supply is still relatively high, and the demand is stable [6] - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is generally stable, and the demand is cautious due to the influence of the off - season and high prices [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On January 15, 2026, A-share market had mixed performance: Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.33% to 4112.60 points; Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14306.73 points; ChiNext Index rose 0.56% to 3367.91 points. The trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was close to 3 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of over 1 trillion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index had a narrow - range fluctuation on January 15, closing at 4751.43, up 9.5 points [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke weighted index on January 15 had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1746.4, down 1.9 points. Coking coal weighted index trended weaker, closing at 1191.6 yuan, down 11.6 points [2][3]. - Coke's transaction price rose sporadically, with average coking profit and slightly increased daily production. Coke inventory remained almost unchanged. Coking coal: Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1586 vehicles. Coking coal mine output decreased slightly, and the mine resumption after New Year's Day was good. The overall carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream molten iron was likely to bottom out and rebound, but the demand for raw materials was at a low - season level [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Wednesday and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng Sugar 2605 contract on January 15 oscillated downward. At night, it had a narrow - range fluctuation and closed slightly lower [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Affected by the high import volume in December 2025 and the decline of oil prices, Shanghai rubber futures on January 15 oscillated downward. In 2025, China imported 852.5 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 16.7% increase from 2024 [4]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 15, CBOT soybean futures closed up. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.7612 billion tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous year. Domestically, on January 15, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2740 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. High inventory restricts the price increase space [5]. 2.5 Live Hogs - On January 15, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11950 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Current market supply is tight, but there is still supply pressure before the Spring Festival. Consumption demand lacks holiday support [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On January 15, palm oil futures prices dropped significantly due to the news of Indonesia canceling B50 biodiesel in 2026. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - On January 15, Shanghai copper futures had a lower closing price. The market is affected by factors such as the cancellation of key mineral tariffs in the US, a stronger US dollar, and weak domestic demand. Supply may decrease, but inventory has increased significantly [5]. 2.8 Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14720 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased, and downstream mills purchase on a need - to - use basis [5]. 2.9 Logs - On January 15, the main log 2603 contract closed at 780.5. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter. Follow - up attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [6]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On January 15, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated downward, down 1.03% to 813 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, while port inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.11 Asphalt - On January 15, the main asphalt 2603 contract closed down slightly, down 0.06% to 3167 yuan. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is oscillating [6]. 2.12 Steel - On January 15, rb2605 closed at 3160 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3307 yuan/ton. The steel market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and steel prices may oscillate weakly [6]. 2.13 Alumina - On January 15, ao2605 closed at 2789 yuan/ton. Some domestic alumina plants are under maintenance, but production capacity is still high, and supply pressure persists. The market has a short - term inventory accumulation trend [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 15, al2603 closed at 24375 yuan/ton. Demand is seasonally weak, but low raw material inventory of downstream manufacturers may trigger restocking demand. However, inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand may lead to a price decline [6]. 3. Other Information - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 14, 2026 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31% to 4126.09, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56% to 14248.60, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82% to 3349.14. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 39872 billion yuan, an increase of 2881 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Futures Indexes**: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4741.93, down 19.1 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the weighted coke index closed at 1740.1, down 22.2, and the weighted coking coal index closed at 1200.2 yuan, down 17.4 [2][3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Coke factories' inventory decreased by 6.04%. The resumption of iron - making production has stabilized coal and coke demand. However, there is a contradiction between market sentiment boosted by "industrial control" information and the inability of short - term fundamental data to meet expectations. For coking coal, supply and demand both increased, and the mine clean coal inventory increased by 0.57%. Iron water production rose by 0.91 million tons [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - **Price Movements**: Affected by the decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of December, the US sugar market stabilized on Tuesday. The Zheng Sugar 2605 contract rose on Wednesday but slightly declined at night due to long - position liquidation [4]. - **Production Data**: In the first half of December, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 28.8% year - on - year to 254,240 tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 32.8% year - on - year to 5.92 million tons. Since the start of the crushing season, the cumulative crushing volume was 598.19 million tons, a 2.36% year - on - year decrease [4]. 2.3 Rubber - **Price Movements**: Boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber rose on Wednesday but closed lower at night with narrow - range fluctuations [4]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: In November 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 20,891 tons, a 29.6% decrease from October, and the total inventory decreased by 17.3% to 120,208 tons [4]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - **International Market**: On January 14, the CBOT soybean market closed up. The US Department of Agriculture overestimated US soybean production but lowered export prospects and raised Brazil's soybean harvest forecast. China's continuous demand supported US soybeans. Brazil's soybean export volume in January is expected to reach 3.73 million tons [6]. - **Domestic Market**: On January 14, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2751 yuan/ton, a 0.36% decline. High inventory restricts price increases. Future focus should be on South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main live pig contract LH2603 closed at 12010 yuan/ton, a 1.82% increase [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the first half of January, the supply of medium - and large - sized pigs decreased slightly. However, there is still a possibility of early slaughter before the Spring Festival. Seasonal consumption is ongoing, but there is a short - term "gap" in consumption. Pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig farms, and the demand during the pickling season [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the palm oil futures price fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, a 0.34% decrease [6]. - **Policy Information**: Indonesia will raise the palm oil export special tax to 12.5% on March 1. The future implementation of the B50 blending policy depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - **Price Movements**: On January 14, Shanghai copper opened at 103780 yuan/ton, closed at 104120 yuan/ton, a 0.85% increase. Trading volume and open interest increased, indicating significant capital inflow [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slowdown of US core inflation and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the market, as well as China's policy of stabilizing growth, boosted market sentiment. Supply was restricted due to smelter maintenance, and demand from the new energy sector and pre - holiday stocking supported prices [6]. 2.8 Logs - **Price Movements**: The main log contract 2603 closed at 779.5 on January 14, with a daily reduction of 108 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7]. - **Market Outlook**: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. 2.9 Iron Ore - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main iron ore contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 821 yuan. Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments declined, port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' replenishment demand increased [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.10 Asphalt - **Price Movements**: On January 14, the main asphalt contract 2603 closed up 1.38% at 3168 yuan. Supply remained low, inventory increased, and downstream demand decreased significantly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supported by crude oil costs, the short - term asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.11 Cotton - **Price Movements**: On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14780 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 426 lots compared to the previous trading day. Downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. 2.12 Steel - **Price Movements**: On January 14, rb2605 closed at 3162 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3306 yuan/ton. High production costs supported steel prices, but weak downstream demand restricted price increases [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. 2.13 Alumina - **Price Movements**: On January 14, ao2605 closed at 2800 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remained high, and the market supply was in surplus, putting pressure on price increases [7]. - **Market Conditions**: Ore trading was light, and downstream profit margins were compressed, leading to a wait - and - see attitude. Spot prices continued to fall, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - **Price Movements**: On January 14, al2603 closed at 24595 yuan/ton. The market followed the trend of precious metals. Supply was normal, and social inventory continued to accumulate [7]. - **Market Conditions**: Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the demand in some fields was under pressure [7].

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On January 13, 2026, the A-share market experienced a collective correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending its 17-day winning streak. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached a record high of 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and international policies. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On January 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% to 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.96% to 3321.89 points. The trading volume of the three markets reached 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on January 13, closing at 4761.03, a decrease of 28.88 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated weakly, closing at 1746.7, a decrease of 18.8 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 1193.9 yuan, a decrease of 30.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the supply side shows continuous recovery in coke - making enterprise operations, and the total coke inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The demand side shows an increase in blast furnace operations and daily hot metal production. Some coke - making enterprises in Inner Mongolia proposed a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. For coking coal, mine production capacity is recovering, Mongolian coal imports are relatively sufficient, and clean coal inventory is accumulating. However, coke - making enterprise profits are in greater deficit [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on January 13. As of January 12, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 21.18% compared to the same period last year. The Thai Sugar Board expects the country's sugar production to reach 10.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season and may reduce to 10 million tons in the next year. The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 4.7 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to improved weather in Southeast Asian producing areas, increased raw material supply, and reduced spot quotes, Shanghai rubber fluctuated downward on January 13. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail sales in 2025 were 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on January 13, CBOT soybeans were weak. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report confirmed the loose supply - demand pattern of the US soybean market, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to 178 million tons. In the domestic market, on January 13, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04%. The current soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level, and the resumption of the auction of imported reserve soybeans further enriches the domestic soybean supply [6]. Live Hogs - On January 13, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11795 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%. The supply of medium - and large - sized hogs has slightly decreased in the first half of this month, but there is still a possibility of early slaughter by pig enterprises before the Spring Festival. The seasonal consumption such as pickled pork and sausage is ongoing, but the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited [6]. Palm Oil - On January 13, the palm oil market continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed at 8778, an increase of 0.62% from the previous day. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects the 2026 palm oil inventory to be 2 million tons (compared to 3.05 million tons in 2025), the price to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton, and the production to be between 19.5 - 19.8 million tons (compared to 20.28 million tons in 2025) [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened at 104500 yuan/ton, reached a high of 104990 yuan/ton, a low of 101970 yuan/ton, and closed at 102480 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate hikes, the off - season of domestic demand, the reduction of refined copper production, and the weak terminal consumption [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of January 13, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14745 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 642 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. Iron Ore - On January 13, the main iron ore 2605 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 819.5 yuan. The supply and demand structure has improved, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On January 13, the main asphalt 2603 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.66% and a closing price of 3140 yuan. The supply is at a low level, the inventory is accumulating, the demand has decreased significantly, and the short - term price is in a volatile state under the support of crude oil costs [7]. Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 772, reached a low of 772, a high of 775.5, and closed at 774.5 on January 13, with a reduction of 254 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [7][8]. Steel - On January 13, rb2605 closed at 3158 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rising cost of coking coal supports steel prices, but downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, and the short - term steel price increase may slow down and enter a volatile state [8]. Alumina - On January 13, ao2605 closed at 2780 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remains high, the supply is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The consumption side shows weak ore transactions and a general trading atmosphere [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 13, al2603 closed at 24375 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is relatively positive for the non - ferrous market. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products may stimulate short - term demand. The supply is normal, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is shrinking [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On January 12, 2026, the A - share market showed strong performance, with significant increases in major indices and record - high trading volume. Different futures varieties had diverse price movements influenced by various factors such as market liquidity expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy news [1]. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On January 12, A - share major indices continued to perform strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index had a 17 - day consecutive increase, reaching a new high in over a decade. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% to 4165.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.75% to 14366.91 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.82% to 3388.34 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 36450 billion yuan, a significant increase of nearly 5000 billion yuan from the previous trading day, setting a new record [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on January 12, closing at 4789.92, a rise of 30.99 compared to the previous day [2]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: The weighted index of coke oscillated and sorted on January 12, closing at 1771.6, a rise of 23.8. The market's expectation of loose liquidity increased. After the end of environmental protection, coking operations resumed, and the average profit per ton of coke declined as coal prices stopped falling. The daily average output of hot metal was 229.5 tons, an increase of 2.07 tons from last week, indicating a bottom - up trend in hot metal demand [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal oscillated and strengthened on January 12, closing at 1240.5 yuan, a rise of 50.7. The market's expectation of loose liquidity increased during the week, and the risk appetite significantly improved. The general rise of commodities drove the low - valued black varieties to make up for losses. There was news of eliminating backward production capacity and reducing the output of thermal coal in 2026, which triggered market speculation on policy - based production restrictions. In January, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased. There was an expectation of restocking in mid - to late January that had not been fulfilled [3][4]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by the slight decline of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Monday. At night, due to short - selling pressure, the contract oscillated and declined. As of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 153.09 million tons, a decrease of 56.73 million tons or 27.03% compared to the same period last year. The global sugar market supply - demand pattern is expected to change from a supply shortage of about 200 million tons in the 2024/25 period to a supply surplus of about 700 million tons in the 2025/26 period [4]. **Rubber** - Affected by capital, Shanghai rubber oscillated widely, first falling and then rising, closing slightly higher on Monday. At night, due to the increase in the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted. As of January 11, 2026, the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, an increase of 1.98 million tons or 3.62% from the previous period [4][5]. **Palm Oil** - On January 12, after the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) announced December data with bright export figures, palm oil futures rose rapidly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 8724, a rise of 0.48% from the previous day. In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 5.46% month - on - month; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an increase of 8.52% month - on - month; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, a slight decrease from 374,000 tons in the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons, with an estimated inventory range of 3 - 3.1 million tons [5]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on January 12, CBOT soybeans fell sharply due to a bearish USDA supply - demand report. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report showed that the estimated soybean production in the US in the 2025/26 period was 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 90 million bushels from December, while export estimates were reduced by 600 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. Domestically, on January 12, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.14%. The oil refinery's operating rate continued to recover rapidly this week, and the output of soybean meal was expected to increase. The current inventory of soybean meal in oil refineries was at a relatively high level compared to the same period of the year, and the supply pressure was large. The restart of the auction of imported reserve soybeans further suppressed the upward space of soybean meal prices [5]. **Live Hogs** - On January 12, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11735 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.3%. In the first half of this month, the supply of medium - and large - sized hogs of appropriate weight decreased slightly, and some farmers showed a mentality of reducing supply to support prices, which tightened the market supply in the short term. However, pig enterprises may still advance the slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the subsequent supply pressure remains. The current seasonal consumption such as pickling and sausage - making in China continues, but the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, and there is a short - term "gap period" [5]. **Shanghai Copper** - Shanghai copper rose strongly. The main 2602 contract closed at 103800 yuan/ton. The macro - environment saw an increase in the expectation of Fed easing, a weakening US dollar, and geopolitical disturbances, which led to capital flowing into the metal sector. Globally, the supply of copper mines was tight and lacked elasticity, and the demand from new energy and AI provided support. Domestically, downstream consumption was dull before the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulated moderately [5]. **Cotton** - On Monday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14685 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 380 lots compared to the previous trading day. Downstream yarn mills and textile enterprises purchased as needed [6]. **Iron Ore** - On January 12, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated and closed higher, with a rise of 0.92% to 822.5 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased month - on - month, the arrival volume increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, steel mills had restocking needs, and the hot metal output continued to rise, so the supply - demand structure improved. In the short term, iron ore prices were in an oscillating trend [6]. **Asphalt** - On January 12, the main asphalt 2603 contract oscillated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.25% to 3157 yuan. The current asphalt supply remained at a low level, inventory accumulated, and the middle - and downstream procurement was cautious, with a significant decrease in demand. Supported by the crude oil cost, asphalt prices oscillated in the short term [6]. **Logs** - The main log 2603 contract opened at 772 on Monday, with a minimum of 772, a maximum of 776.5, and closed at 773, with an increase of 47 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price in Jiangsu was 740 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [6][7]. **Steel** - On January 12, rb2605 closed at 3165 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3311 yuan/ton. The rising prices of raw fuels strengthened the cost support for steel prices, and mainstream steel mills' price - supporting measures promoted the rise of steel prices. On the other hand, the demand for steel in the off - season continued to decline, and the supply - demand pressure increased, so steel prices may not continue to rise. In the short term, steel prices may first rise and then fall, oscillating within a range [7]. **Alumina** - On January 12, ao2605 closed at 2866 yuan/ton. The domestic operating capacity of alumina remained at a high level, and there was no sign of long - term production reduction, so the supply surplus pattern continued, and prices were under pressure. Based on the 5 - dollar reduction in the long - term contract price of Guinea's ore in the first quarter, the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan regions would drop to about 2650 yuan/ton. On the consumption side, although the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia had been put into operation, they were in the early stage, and the demand increase was limited [7]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - On January 12, al2603 closed at 24650 yuan/ton. Domestically, the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1 may trigger the rush - work demand in the domestic photovoltaic industry, which may improve the demand for photovoltaic frames and brackets and support aluminum prices. Fundamentally, the supply side was operating normally, and social inventory continued to accumulate. The demand side showed a cooling trend, with downstream buyers being cautious and traders reducing purchases [7].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（1 月 9 日）A 股三大指数延续上攻步伐，沪指 16 连阳站上 4100 点，再创逾 10 年新高。 截止收盘，沪指涨 0.92%，收报 4120.43 点；深证成指涨 1.15%，收报 14120.15 点；创业板指涨 0.77%，收报 3327.81 点。沪深两市成交额突破三万亿，达到 31526 亿，较昨日放量 3261 亿。 【郑糖】美糖上周五承压于供应过剩前景期价小幅收低。郑糖 2605 月合约上周五走势波动不大呈现震荡整 理态势。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）公布的数据显示，截至 1 月 6 日当周，投机客增持 ICE 原糖期货和期 权净空头头寸 11,654 手，至 170,756 手。（数据来源：文华综合） 【胶】受空头打压沪胶上周五震荡走低。截止 1 月 9 日，上海期货交易所天然橡胶库存 120950 吨环比+3345 吨，期货仓单 104490 吨环比+3900 吨。20 号胶库存 59270 吨环比-2015 吨，期货仓单 56952 吨环比-1007 吨。（数 据来源： ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 8, 2026 - **Stock Market**: The three major A-share indices showed a mixed trend. The Shanghai Composite Index ended with a 0.07% decline at 4082.98 points after a "15-day consecutive gain." The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.51% to 13959.48 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.82% to 3302.31 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2826.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Futures Market**: - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 Index continued to adjust, closing at 4737.65, down 39.01 [2]. - **Energy Futures**: The coke weighted index closed at 1766.3, up 43.3, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1191.1 yuan, up 52.6 [2][3]. - **Agricultural Futures**: - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract opened higher but closed slightly up after a late - session decline. Brazil's sugar exports in December 2025 increased by 2.8% year - on - year [4]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures adjusted slightly lower on Thursday and continued to decline at night due to a drop in tire factory operating rates [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. The main contract P2605 closed at 8612, up 0.58% [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on January 8. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [5]. - **Pork**: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11720 yuan/ton, down 0.55% [5]. - **Metal Futures**: - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed sharply lower at 101220 yuan/ton, down 2.76%. The trading volume was 3.035 million lots, and the open interest was 2.041 million lots [5]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14710 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventories increased by 140 lots [5]. - **Logs**: The main contract of logs 2603 closed at 778.5, with a daily reduction of 258 lots [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract closed down 0.37% at 813 yuan [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2602 main contract closed down 0.76% at 3117 yuan [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3168 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3317 yuan/ton [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2863 yuan/ton [7]. - **Aluminum**: The al2602 contract closed at 23725 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The fourth - round reduction in the spot purchase price of coke has been implemented. Coking enterprise profits have declined, but the overall production remains stable. The demand for coke from steel mills is weak due to low blast furnace profits. For coking coal, domestic production has increased as mines in major producing areas have resumed production, while the demand from downstream coking enterprises is weak, and most coal prices have declined slightly [4]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's increased sugar exports in December 2025 indicate a potential short - term demand recovery, which boosted the US sugar price and influenced the Zhengzhou sugar futures [4]. - **Rubber**: The decline in tire factory operating rates has put pressure on the rubber futures price [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints, and the B50 biodiesel road test has started, with plans to implement it in the second half of this year [4][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the international market, US soybean export sales decreased, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase. In the domestic market, high - level soybean inventories and expected abundant supply in the first quarter are due to large - scale US soybean purchases and Brazil's soybean harvest [5]. - **Pork**: In the short term, the supply pressure has decreased as some farms have reduced their slaughter plans, and the demand from the pickling and enema market has supported the price. However, in the long term, the supply pressure remains [5]. - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar, weak overseas demand expectations, increased domestic copper inventories, and under - expected terminal demand have put pressure on the copper price [5]. - **Logs**: Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market, including price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [5][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments, increased port inventories, and the expected increase in iron production due to improved steel mill profitability have led to a volatile iron ore price [7]. - **Asphalt**: The expected reduction in asphalt supply from local refineries and uncertain raw material supply due to the South American geopolitical conflict, along with weak downstream demand, have resulted in a volatile asphalt price [7]. - **Steel**: The black futures market has shown an upward trend, but steel mills' low - level production and traders' inventory - digestion strategies have led to a cautious market [7]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina remains excessive, and the cost support is weak due to the expected increase in bauxite supply [7]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - market sentiment has cooled slightly, but the non - ferrous metal market remains at a high level. The supply of aluminum is normal, and the demand is improving [7]. 3. Market Outlook and Suggestions - **Soybean Meal**: Monitor South American weather conditions and soybean arrival volumes [5]. - **Pork**: Pay attention to the changes in the number of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms, and the demand during the pickling season [5]. - **Logs**: Focus on the support from the spot market [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 7, 2026, the A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 14 consecutive daily gains, while the CSI 300 index adjusted. Different futures varieties also had diverse price trends, influenced by various factors such as supply - demand, international market conditions, and macro - economic situations [1][2] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4085.77, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to 14030.56, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31% to 3329.69. The trading volume of the two markets reached 28,818 billion yuan, an increase of 492 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4776.67, down 14.03 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 7, the coke weighted index closed at 1774.5, up 131.6. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1165.8 yuan, up 87.3. Coke inventory turned to slight destocking. The price drivers include winter - storage replenishment demand and South American macro - situation changes. Coking coal supply decreased, coke supply slightly increased, demand improved with the resumption of hot - metal production, and inventory changes varied [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of the Brazilian real and other factors, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on Wednesday. As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan had produced 39.23 million tons of sugar with a production rate of 11.34%, and sold 28.14 million tons with a sales rate of 71.72%. Guangxi had produced 194.19 million tons of mixed sugar, sold 88.48 million tons, with a sales rate of 45.56% [4] Rubber - Due to concerns about wet weather in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, Southeast Asian spot prices continued to rise. Shanghai rubber rose on Wednesday and adjusted at night. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a 16% month - on - month decrease and a 13% year - on - year increase [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 7, CBOT soybean futures rose. Exporters sold 336,000 tons of US soybeans to China. Brazil is expected to have a bumper harvest, and its December soybean exports increased 69% year - on - year. Domestically, the M2605 contract rose 1.26% to 2811 yuan/ton. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11,785 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The supply pressure at the beginning of January decreased, but there was still a possibility of early slaughter before the Spring Festival. The demand was strong, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improved, but the long - term supply pressure remained [5] Palm Oil - On January 7, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate within a range and closed slightly higher. The main contract P2605 closed at 8562, up 0.73%. Malaysia's palm oil production in December was estimated to decrease 4.64% to 1.84 million tons [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened at 104,480 yuan/ton, closed at 103,410 yuan/ton, with a high of 105,500 yuan/ton and a low of 102,330 yuan/ton. It rose 0.11%. The core drivers included supply disruptions, low TC/RC, Fed rate - cut expectations, and rising domestic PMI, but high prices inhibited consumption, and inventory increased [5] Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,870 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 225 lots. The new import tariff quota policy boosted the domestic imported cotton market, and the sales of bonded cotton at ports increased [6] Iron Ore - On January 7, the iron ore 2605 main contract rose 4.09% to close at 828 yuan. The global iron ore shipment was high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. With the improvement of steel - mill profitability and the end of blast - furnace maintenance, the iron - water output was expected to rise, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On January 7, the asphalt 2602 main contract fell 0.13% to close at 3151 yuan. The supply of asphalt from local refineries in January was expected to decrease, and the South American geopolitical situation increased the uncertainty of raw - material supply. With weak downstream demand, the short - term price was volatile [6] Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 776, closed at 782, with a daily increase of 961 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to spot - end support, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7] Steel - On January 7, rb2605 was at 3187 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was at 3332 yuan/ton. The cost of steel decreased slightly, and some steel mills resumed production. With the increase in coke and iron ore futures, the short - term steel price rebounded, but the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season might limit the rebound space [7] Alumina - On January 7, ao2605 was at 2938 yuan/ton. The spot market trading volume increased. Enterprises might have a stronger willingness to cut production, and the production - cut expectation would support the price to stabilize and fluctuate [7] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 7, al2602 was at 24,360 yuan/ton. The macro - situation was positive, and the non - ferrous metals continued to rise. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulation slowed down, and the demand improved slightly [8]