Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 1, 2025 - A - shares opened September with gains, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to 12828.95, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.29% to 2956.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 2750 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4523.71, up 26.95 [2] 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - The coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1597.5, down 57.1 [3] - The coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1117.2 yuan, down 37.5 [4] - The palm oil futures rebounded after stopping the decline, with the main contract P2601 closing at 9384, up 0.73%. As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 16,500 tons or 2.77% [8] - The asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up 1% at 3540 yuan. Last week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and shipments increased slightly [9] 2.2 Agricultural Futures - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated slightly higher. Large speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 2224 lots to 132,813 lots as of August 26 [5] - The Shanghai rubber oscillated. Affected by the planned zero - tariff rubber trade via the Mekong River channel between China and Thailand in September and other factors, the first pilot project will start in September 2025, with an expected increase in export volume [6] - The CBOT soybean futures were closed for the Labor Day holiday. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with the M2601 main contract closing at 3054 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [7] - The live hog futures oscillated, with the LH2511 main contract closing at 13,625 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The terminal demand is showing signs of recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large [7] - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,085 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 194 lots, and some areas in Xinjiang began manual harvesting [9] 2.3 Metal Futures - The Shanghai copper price was driven up. The domestic inventory decline provided support, and the Yangshan copper premium reached a new high since June 5 [8] - The iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and fell 2.67% to 766 yuan. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased last week, and the market sentiment weakened [9] - The log 2511 contract opened at 820, closed at 818.5, and decreased positions by 353 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat, and the external price increase drove up the domestic futures price [9][10] - The rebar rb2601 closed at 3115 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil hc2601 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rebar market was weak, with increasing supply pressure and uncertain demand improvement [10] - The alumina ao2601 closed at 3008 yuan/ton. The ore price has support, but the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus [11] - The Shanghai aluminum al2510 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton. The aluminum price remained firm under the background of expected interest rate cuts and demand recovery [11] 3. Influencing Factors and Outlook - For coke and coking coal, factors such as production restrictions in coking plants, iron water production, and inventory changes affect prices [5] - For sugar, the change in large speculators' positions and the trend of US sugar prices are important factors [5] - For rubber, the zero - tariff trade policy between China and Thailand is a major positive factor [6] - For soybean meal, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports are the focus [7] - For live hogs, the supply and demand situation in the fourth quarter and the market demand are key points [7] - For copper, US non - farm data and China's August PMI data will affect the price trend [8] - For iron ore, the short - term market is affected by production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] - For asphalt, the demand in the peak season is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate in the short term [9] - For log, the price is affected by external prices, supply - demand relationship, and market sentiment [10] - For rebar, the supply - demand contradiction and cost factors affect the price, and it will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [10] - For alumina, factors such as ore mining, cost, and inventory affect the price [11] - For aluminum, the Fed's interest rate decision and demand improvement are important factors [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 29, A-share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong on that day, closing at 4496.76, a rise of 32.98 [1][2]. - The weighted index of coke trended weakly on September 29, closing at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4. The weighted index of coking coal was weakly consolidated, closing at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - The price of US sugar oscillated slightly lower on September 29. Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated slightly higher at night due to bargain - hunting after a large short - term decline. The supply gap of sugar in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly [5]. - The rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower on September 29 due to the decline in crude oil prices [6]. - The soybean meal futures price may continue to oscillate and adjust, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The focus is on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [7]. - The live pig futures price may run weakly and oscillate. The focus is on the slaughter rhythm and market demand [8]. - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. - The iron ore futures price is in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. - The asphalt futures price will oscillate in the short term [10]. - The steel price will be under pressure and show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the performance of peak - season demand [12]. - The alumina industry is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season [12]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry has positive expectations, with supply increasing slightly and demand gradually recovering [13]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2890.13, up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4496.76 on September 29, a rise of 32.98 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 29, the weighted index of coke closed at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises proposed the eighth round of price increase. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by end - of - month production restrictions. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines had production disruptions, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased slightly. The downstream demand will be restricted by end - of - month production restrictions [5]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3620000 tons. The supply gap in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly to 231000 tons from 4.88 million tons this year [5]. Rubber - On September 29, the rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower due to the decline in crude oil prices. As of August 29, the inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [6]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean futures price rose on August 29, while the domestic soybean meal futures price was weakly oscillating. The domestic supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The price may continue to oscillate and adjust [7]. Live Pig - On August 29, the live pig futures price oscillated weakly. The demand showed signs of slow recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year was still large [8]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level. The domestic supply of copper concentrates is relatively tight, and the demand is expected to be good in the peak season. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. Iron Ore - On August 29, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.77% and a closing price of 787.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On August 29, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.17% and a closing price of 3507 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate decreased, and the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. Steel - The steel price is under pressure due to weak supply and demand, but the cost increase may limit the downward space. It will show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the peak - season demand [12]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite will gradually decrease, and the domestic supply of alumina may increase slightly. The demand is stable, and the industry is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly, and the demand will gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season. The industry has positive expectations [13].

Variety Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 28, A-share major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14% to 3843.60, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25% to 12571.37, the ChiNext Index rose 3.82% to 2827.17, and the STAR 50 Index rose 7.23% to 1364.60. The trading volume of the two markets was 2970.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 194.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index fluctuated widely, closing at 4463.78, up 77.66 [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On August 28, the coke weighted index weakened, closing at 1672.5, down 8.0. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1170.9 yuan, up 11.2 [1][2]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The US sugar fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. Affected by weak demand and lower spot quotes, the long positions of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on Thursday. At night, it continued to decline slightly under short - selling pressure. As of August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons the previous week [3]. - **Rubber**: The Thai Meteorological Department warned of heavy rain from August 28 to September 3, which may cause floods. Toyota's auto production and sales in July reached a record high. Affected by these factors, Southeast Asian spot quotes rose, and Shanghai rubber rose on Thursday but fell slightly at night under short - selling pressure. From January to July 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 889,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Internationally, on August 28, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The US Department of Agriculture reported that in the week ending August 21, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year decreased by 189,200 tons, in line with market expectations, and the net export sales of next - year soybeans were 1.3726 million tons, higher than expected. The US soybeans are growing well, and the probability of weather speculation this year is decreasing. Domestically, on August 28, soybean meal futures weakened. The M2601 main contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. Currently, soybean crushing volume is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [4][5]. - **Live Pigs**: On August 28, live pig futures prices weakened. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13,590 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. There are signs of slow recovery in demand during the back - to - school season, but the support for pig prices is limited. The supply of suitable - weight pigs is sufficient, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year remains high [5]. - **Palm Oil**: On August 28, palm oil futures declined, breaking through the previous high - level range. The main contract P2601 closed at 9414, down 0.91%. On August 27, the CNF quotes for 24 - degree palm oil imports for September and October shipments decreased by 1 - 5 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the landed duty - paid costs in South China decreased by 50 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been digested. LME copper inventory has accumulated slightly, and domestic refined copper social inventory is still at a low level. The spot processing fee for copper concentrate remains low, and the smelting end is performing well. The demand side is weak, and Shanghai copper continues to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Logs**: On August 28, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 815, with a low of 810, a high of 825, and closed at 821.5, with an increase of 363 lots in positions. The 60 - day moving average provides support at 810 and resistance at 825. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in foreign quotes drove up the domestic futures price. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak [7]. - **Cotton**: On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,270 yuan/ton. On August 29, the minimum basis quote at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 139 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. - **Steel**: On August 28, rb2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton. From late August to early September, northern steel mills and coke enterprises will implement temporary environmental protection restrictions, and demand is expected to improve in September. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside and downside [7]. - **Alumina**: On August 28, ao2601 closed at 3063 yuan/ton. Alumina inventory has been steadily accumulating, with a weekly accumulation of 5 - 7 million tons for four consecutive weeks. The supply and demand of the alumina market are both at a high level and relatively stable. Without a significant reduction in supply, the oversupply situation will continue [9]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: On August 28, al2510 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, the inventory is moderate, and the cost support is strong. The demand is stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [9]. Influencing Factors - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and some northern coke enterprises have started production restrictions. However, due to the rapid decline in blast furnace profits, it is difficult for coke prices to continue to rise. The supply - demand gap still exists [3]. - **Coking Coal**: A coal mine accident in Fujian has raised concerns about increased safety supervision. Mine supply has recovered this week, and the operating rate of coal washing plants has declined slightly. Upstream inventory has increased again, and downstream inventory has decreased [3].

Variety Views - On August 27, A-share's three major indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.76% to 3,800.35, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43% to 12,295.07, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.69% to 2,723.20. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion for the third time, reaching 3.1656 trillion, a significant increase of 486.5 billion from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on August 27, closing at 4,386.13, a decrease of 66.46 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1,669.4, a decline of 45.9 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1,149.0 yuan, a decrease of 45.8 [2]. - Affected by Conab's reduction of Brazil's sugar production forecast, ICE sugar futures rose slightly on Tuesday. However, due to weak consumption and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fell slightly on Wednesday and continued to decline slightly at night [3]. - Affected by falling crude oil prices and a sharp stock market decline, Shanghai rubber futures fell on Wednesday. However, heavy rain in rubber - producing areas due to a typhoon limited the decline. At night, it fluctuated and closed slightly lower [4]. - On August 27, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. With favorable growing conditions in the US, the probability of weather speculation this year has decreased significantly, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, the M2601 contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton on August 27, down 1.17%. High soybean crushing volume, increased inventory, and weakening cost support led to a weakening trend in soybean meal prices [5][6]. - On August 27, the LH2511 live - hog contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. At the supply end, some pig farms have completed their monthly sales plans, but the supply of suitable - weight pigs is still sufficient. At the demand end, with the approaching of the school season and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, consumption is expected to improve, but the actual recovery is restricted by factors such as consumer willingness and the economic environment [6]. - On August 27, palm oil futures maintained a high - level and narrow - range oscillation. The P2601 contract closed at 9,500. According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month [7]. - Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper demand. However, the tight supply of copper concentrates and strong demand in the new energy sector supported Shanghai copper prices [7]. - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,095 yuan/ton. On August 28, the basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots [7]. - On August 27, the log 2511 contract opened at 821.5, with a low of 813.5, a high of 825.5, and closed at 814.5, with an increase of 1,473 lots in positions. The 60 - day moving average provided support at 813 and resistance at 827. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures prices. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak [8]. - On August 27, the rb2510 steel rebar contract closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,349 yuan/ton. There is still pressure in the spot market, and strong raw material prices provide cost support. The steel market lacks upward momentum in the short term and is likely to continue narrow - range oscillation [8]. - On August 27, the ao2601 alumina contract closed at 3,046 yuan/ton. High inventories of upstream manufacturers led to an influx of supply, highlighting a loose supply - demand situation. Weak downstream demand forced prices to return to a lower level [9][10]. - On August 27, the al2510 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20,810 yuan/ton. Some enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, but with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10]. Impact Factors Coke and Coking Coal - In the coke market, port spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Many coke enterprises proposed an eighth price increase, but steel mills have not responded. Although profits have improved and production enthusiasm is high, environmental protection restrictions due to the parade have led to a decline in production. At the demand end, steel mills' production restrictions are concentrated at the end of the month, and the demand for coke is stable, but raw material arrivals are insufficient in some areas [3]. - In the coking coal market, the price of main coking coal in Luliang decreased by 25 yuan to 335 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is strong, with some prices rising. Supply is unstable, auctions show mixed results, and mines are reluctant to lower prices due to low inventories and expected coke price increases [3]. Sugar - Conab reduced Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons compared with the April forecast. However, production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared with the previous year [4]. Rubber - Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 2.572 million tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase [4]. Soybean Meal - The US soybean growing conditions are good, and the probability of weather - related speculation has decreased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, high soybean crushing volume has led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, and weakening cost support has reduced mills' motivation to support prices [6]. Aluminum - Some domestic aluminum enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. However, with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 26, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 3868.38, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12473.17, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.75% to 2742.13. The trading volume of the two markets was 2679 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 462.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4452.59, down 16.63 [2]. - Futures: The weighted index of coke closed at 1679.6, down 40.8; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1155.5 yuan, down 37.7 [3][4]. 2. Core Views on Different Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The 7 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented this week, and the coking profit has improved. However, some coke enterprises may face short - term production restrictions due to the military parade, and there is a regional shortage of coke resources. The demand for coke is currently high but may decline during the military parade [5]. - Coking coal: More mines have resumed production this week, and the import volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high. Although the theoretical import profit of sea - borne coal is narrowing, the short - term supply is still abundant [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Asian high rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, which suppresses the price of US sugar. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined significantly on August 26 due to the fall of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to the decline of rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and heavy rainfall in Thailand, but falling in the afternoon due to the poor financial reports of German car companies and concerns about future rubber demand [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated on August 26, with good crop growth conditions. In the domestic market, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The price of soybean meal is in a state of shock, and the future trend depends on Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [9]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On August 26, the LH2511 contract closed down 0.36%. The supply of suitable pigs is sufficient, and the terminal consumption may improve with the approaching of the school season and holidays, but the actual consumption recovery is restricted by many factors. The price of live pigs may fluctuate widely [9]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On August 26, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate in a high - level range. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased week - on - week [10]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement has increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to copper prices. The supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season [10]. 2.8 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14085 yuan/ton on the night of August 26, and the cotton inventory decreased by 127 lots [11]. 2.9 Logs - The futures price of logs was affected by the increase of foreign quotes. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to the price, import data, inventory changes and macro - expectations in the peak season [12]. 2.10 Steel - On August 26, the rb2510 contract closed at 3113 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3367 yuan/ton. The weak reality still restricts the rebound of steel prices, but there are still expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" [12]. 2.11 Alumina - The supply of alumina is increasing, while the growth of downstream electrolytic aluminum capacity is slowing down, resulting in a prominent supply - demand contradiction and downward pressure on prices [12]. 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts and real - estate policies. The inventory has increased, and the future price depends on consumption performance [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On August 25, A-share indices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the second time in history [1] - Futures of various commodities have different trends and influencing factors, such as the upward trend of stock index futures, the shock of coke and coking coal futures, the small rise of Zheng sugar futures, etc [1][2] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% to 3883.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26% to 12441.07 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3% to 2762.99 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 3141.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 594.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4469.22, a rise of 91.22 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 25, the coke weighted index trended stronger with a closing price of 1732.1, a rise of 69.6; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1208.8 yuan, a rise of 73.0. From January - July 2025, global crude steel production was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The current molten iron output is 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 23 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory is increasing overall [1] Coking Coal - Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the disk. Fed Chairman Powell expressed an open attitude towards interest rate cuts on August 22. The mine - end inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the refined coal inventory is shifting downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory level is moderately high [2] Zheng Sugar - Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar and the rise of crude oil prices, the Zheng Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher on August 25, and closed slightly lower at night [2] Rubber - Affected by bad weather in Southeast Asia and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on August 25 and closed slightly higher at night. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 2.572 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%, and exports to China were 1.603 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% [3] Palm Oil - On August 25, palm oil futures fluctuated slightly in the high - level range. As of August 22, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 5.70% week - on - week and 2.65% year - on - year. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 16.4% month - on - month [3][5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures closed down on August 25. The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 176.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. Domestically, the M2601 contract rose 0.94% to 3117 yuan/ton. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The purchase of US soybeans and the possible auction of state - reserve soybeans limit the increase of soybean meal [5] Live Pigs - On August 25, the LH2511 contract rose 0.51% to 13940 yuan/ton. The supply pressure has decreased slightly, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the school season and holidays, but the actual recovery is restricted by multiple factors. Live pigs may show a wide - range shock trend [6] Shanghai Copper - Driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the decline of domestic refined copper inventory, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [6] Logs - The 2511 contract of logs opened at 819.5 on August 25, with a low of 812.5, a high of 822, and closed at 820, with an increase of 204 lots. The external price increase drives the domestic futures price up. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [6][7] Cotton - The main contract of Zheng Cotton closed at 14145 yuan/ton at night on August 25. The cotton inventory decreased by 94 lots compared with the previous trading day [7] Steel - On August 25, rb2510 closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3389 yuan/ton. The black - series futures fluctuated in the positive range. The production capacity utilization rate in East and North China decreased, and the raw material price increased slightly. The downstream is waiting and watching, and the market transactions are mainly low - price resources [7] Alumina - On August 25, ao2601 closed at 3184 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are weak due to over - capacity, but short - term deep decline is restricted. It is expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and long - term weakness may occur without interference [8][9] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 25, al2510 closed at 20770 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is favorable, but the supply is normal, the inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - On August 22, the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points and reaching a ten-year high. The CSI 300 index also closed strongly, rising by 89.93 points compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by different factors, including supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal are influenced by production limits, inventory levels, and market sentiment; the price of sugar is affected by production forecasts in Brazil and India; the price of rubber is driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts; and the price of soybeans is supported by strong exports and good growth conditions [1][3][4]. - The market trends of different products vary, with some showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some remaining in a state of shock. For example, the prices of stock index futures, coke, and sugar showed upward trends; the price of coking coal showed a downward trend; and the prices of iron ore, asphalt, and logs showed a state of shock [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On August 22, the A-share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07% to close at 12166.06 points; the ChiNext Index rose by 3.36% to close at 2682.55 points; and the STAR 50 Index rose by 8.59% to close at 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On August 22, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, with a closing price of 1677.0, a slight increase of 0.2 compared to the previous day. Due to the approaching of a major event, there are expectations of production limits in coking plants in the East China region. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved coking profits, and the daily production of coking has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has continued to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level during the off-season. Market sentiment towards coal over - production inspections has increased, driving up the price of coke. The coke futures price has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the expected "anti - involution" policy [1][3]. - Coking Coal: On August 22, the weighted index of coking coal showed weak fluctuations, with a closing price of 1156.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.9 compared to the previous day. The output of coking coal mines has increased, the flow - rate of spot auctions has slightly increased, the transaction price has decreased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat. The inventory at the production end has increased slightly, and it is necessary to observe whether the de - stocking continues [2][3]. Sugar - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous season's 40.2 million tons. Analysts expect the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season starting in October to be 32 million tons, higher than the 26.22 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Affected by this, the US sugar price stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Supported by the stabilization of the US sugar price and the role of funds, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher last Friday [3]. Rubber - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting raised expectations of interest rate cuts, driving up the price of Shanghai rubber in the night session last Friday. As of August 22, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,669 tons, a decrease of 519 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1460 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,183 tons, a decrease of 1007 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1612 tons compared to the previous day [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on August 22, the CBOT soybean futures rose further to a two - month high. Strong weekly exports and the rebound of soybean oil prices boosted the price of US soybeans. The ProFarmer survey results in six out of seven states showed that the number of soybean pods was higher than the average of the past three years, supporting the expectation of good yields and production of US soybeans. The good growth condition of US soybeans has improved the harvest outlook, and the probability of weather speculation has decreased as the weather window narrows. In the domestic market, on August 22, the M2601 main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume remains high, the downstream提货 speed has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation rhythm at the oil mill end has slowed down. China's soybean orders for the fourth quarter are basically all from South America. The market's concern about the tight supply of soybean meal in the later period supports the price - holding power of soybean meal. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas and the situation of soybean imports [4][5]. Live Hogs - On August 22, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54%. On the supply side, in August, the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated realization, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of group pig enterprises has increased compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. On the demand side, the national central pork reserve purchase plan has released a market - supporting signal, strongly boosting market confidence. Although the supply of pigs is sufficient, the demand in some areas has shown signs of recovery, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. With the approaching of the students' return to school and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day double - festival stocking period, the terminal consumption is expected to further improve. However, the actual consumption recovery strength is still restricted by factors such as residents' consumption willingness and the economic environment, and dynamic tracking is required. Live hogs may show a wide - range shock trend, and future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live hogs and market demand [5]. Copper - At the macro level, the market will focus on the Fed's interest - rate stance from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. If the Fed releases a hawkish signal, it may suppress the copper price. Fundamentally, as the "Golden September" peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the expected improvement in demand will support the price. However, the supply of copper mines has increased to some extent, and the supply of refined copper is also expected to increase slightly. The changes in the supply - demand situation still need to be monitored. In addition, although the global inventory level is low, significant changes in inventory will also affect the copper price [6]. Iron Ore - On August 22, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down with a decline of 0.71% and a closing price of 770 yuan. Last week, the global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to rise and remained at a high level. However, with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September military parade, there is an expectation of a reduction in molten iron production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On August 22, the asphalt 2510 main contract closed up with a rise of 0.81% and a closing price of 3483 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous week. The terminal demand was limited by rainfall and funds, and there was no significant improvement in demand. The fundamentals lack an obvious one - sided driving force, and the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,155 yuan/ton. As of August 25, the minimum basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 137 bales compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On August 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 804, with a minimum of 797.5, a maximum of 807.5, and closed at 801, with a daily reduction of 1007 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 815. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The increase in the external market quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [7]. Steel - Currently, the focus is shifting from downstream finished products to upstream raw materials. On the one hand, the reduction in blast furnace production is not significant, the molten iron production is still increasing, the actual demand for raw materials has increased, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, and the seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented. On the other hand, various information about coking coal has emerged, reviving the bulls, and there is a sign that the correction is over. However, it should be noted that the inventory pressure of finished products is still increasing, which will intensify the contradiction between raw materials and finished products, and this situation will continue. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of finished products in the next two weeks [9]. Alumina - From the perspective of raw materials, due to the uncertainty of disturbances in the Guinea mining area and the concentrated shipments before the rainy season in Guinea, the arrival and import of domestic bauxite have increased, and the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic alumina has increased slightly, the operating rate remains high, and the opening of the import window has led to an increase in imports, resulting in an increase in the domestic alumina supply. In terms of demand, the demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high. In the southwest region, the abundant water period from July to August has prompted electrolytic aluminum plants to resume production intensively, and the demand for alumina has also increased. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth [9]. Aluminum - The price of alumina, the raw material, has slightly decreased, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum remains good, which has encouraged smelters to be more active in production. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry limit, and the domestic output has only increased slightly due to the commissioning of some replacement production capacities. In terms of demand, the spot price of aluminum remains relatively strong, and the off - season has suppressed the downstream consumption sentiment. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the consumption demand is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, affected by the off - season, the social inventory has slightly accumulated and is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected to recover [10].

Variety Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On August 21, A-share market's three major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten-year high, closing up 0.13% at 3771.10 points; the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.06% at 11919.76 points; and the ChiNext Index down 0.47% at 2595.47 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2424.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.58 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation on August 21, closing at 4288.07, up 16.68 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 21, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1661.0, down 14.7 compared to the previous day [3] - On August 21, the weighted index of coking coal was weak, closing at 1140.6 yuan, down 14.0 compared to the previous day [4] - For coke, due to an approaching major event, there are expectations of production limitations at coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved slightly, and daily coking production has increased slightly. Overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off - season [5] - For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market has performed well, with prices mostly rising, and terminal inventory remaining flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the increase in refining profit has boosted the demand for raw sugar. The market expects that China's strong import pace in July may continue for at least the next few months. Supported by these factors, US sugar oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the start of stockpiling for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the spot price has been firm recently. Affected by the rise in US sugar and the increase in spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward on Thursday. However, due to the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. In July 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons, but a month - on - month increase, hitting a new high for the year [5] Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 to 26. Supported by concerns about bad weather in major rubber - producing areas, Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher on Thursday. At night, it fluctuated slightly. According to LMC Automotive, in July 2025, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume of global light vehicles rose to 94 million vehicles per year. Year - on - year, the global market sales volume increased by more than 6% to 7.46 million vehicles [6] Soybean Meal - In the international market on August 21, CBOT soybean futures rose sharply due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1055 cents per bushel. During the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour on Wednesday, the inspection team found that the soybean outlook in western Iowa was much better than average. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 8.8 million tons [6] - In the domestic market on August 21, the M2601 main contract closed at 3113 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.49%. Chinese importers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans. All the purchased soybean orders for the fourth quarter are from South America. The increase in Brazilian soybean costs and the non - purchase of new - crop US soybeans have raised concerns about a tightening of later - stage soybean meal supply, which has significantly supported forward prices. However, currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, oil refineries' operating rates are high, which has promoted the recovery of soybean meal inventory. The abundant supply has put pressure on soybean meal prices. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean import situation [8] Live Pigs - On August 21, live pig futures prices oscillated weakly. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.07%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption. High - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig enterprises is low, and the operating level remains low, which has put some pressure on prices. In August, production capacity is being realized intensively, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the monthly slaughter plans of group pig enterprises have increased. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of abundant supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation trends, pig slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [8] Palm Oil - On August 21, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a high level. The main contract P2601 closed with a small upper - shadowed negative line, with a high of 9636, a low of 9480, and a closing price of 9500, down 0.57% from the previous day. According to foreign media reports, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) on Thursday showed that despite increased production and accelerated exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. As the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month surge of 35.4% driven by the soaring demand from major buyers such as China and India. In June, the production of crude palm oil increased by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons; the total production (including palm kernel oil) in the first half of this year reached 27.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [9] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern. Fundamentally, the arrival of domestic refineries has increased, and the supply pattern of electrolytic copper has turned abundant. However, as the seasonal off - season ends, downstream demand is expected to pick up. At the macro level, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September has decreased, which has supported copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan. If it breaks through the key resistance level of 79,000 yuan, it may open up an upward space. In the spot market, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and affected by imported low - price goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, downstream purchasing sentiment may be strong, and the decline is expected to be limited [10] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan per ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on August 22, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange, the lowest basis quotation was 1070 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 120 lots compared to the previous day. According to the US weather forecast, the drought area in the US will increase from August to October [10] Iron Ore - On August 21, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.98% and a closing price of 772.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore have both increased this period, and port inventory has continued to rise. Molten iron production has increased slightly. However, as environmental protection policies in the north become stricter before the September military parade, there are expectations of a decrease in molten iron production. In the short term, iron ore prices are in an oscillating trend [10] Asphalt - On August 21, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.38% and a closing price of 3465 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt has decreased month - on - month this period. Terminal demand is limited by rainfall and funds, and there has been no significant improvement in demand. Without obvious one - way driving factors, asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [11] Logs - On August 20, the 25091 contract opened at 804, had a low of 803, a high of 812, and closed at 804.5, with a decrease of 825 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820 [11] - On August 21, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that in July, log imports were 2.5 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The cumulative imports from January to July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in overseas prices has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [13] Steel - On August 21, rb2510 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2510 closed at 3375 yuan per ton. As steel prices have fallen for several consecutive days, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has increased slightly, and the sales of low - price resources have improved. At the same time, most steel mills in Tangshan have maintenance plans, and it is expected that the supply - demand pressure will ease at the end of August and early September. The market should not be overly bearish. In the short term, steel prices will have limited fluctuations and may oscillate in a narrow range [13] Alumina - On August 21, ao2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton. Fundamentally, the positive factors in the alumina market have faded. The 10.7% month - on - month increase in bauxite imports in July shows that the supply of imported ore has not been significantly affected by the rainy season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, and the import window opens intermittently. The pattern of oversupply will continue in the second half of the year. The alumina warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continuously increased to 72,000 tons, alleviating liquidity concerns and dampening bullish sentiment. Alumina is in an oscillating adjustment [14] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 21, al2510 closed at 20590 yuan per ton. In terms of inventory, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is 571,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week, and it has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, but the support from low inventory still exists. In the short term, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum has changed to al2510. It is restricted by demand above and supported by macro - stimulus and low inventory below. It will continue to oscillate. If the electrolytic aluminum inventory accumulates rapidly, aluminum prices may be under pressure [14]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On August 20, A-share major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten-year high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to 3,766.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.89% to 11,926.74 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.23% to 2,607.65 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.23% to 1,148.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.4082 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger, closing at 4,271.40, up 48.02 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 20, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1,676.2, down 33.9. The weighted coking coal index trended weaker, closing at 1,154.3 yuan, down 26.9 [1][2]. Influencing Factors - **Coke**: After the sixth price increase, coking profits improved, supply slightly rebounded, and demand remained strong with daily hot metal output at 240.66 tons last week, up 0.34 tons. All links reduced inventory, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. The main game point is the restrictions during the September 3 parade, and there is pressure on warehouse receipts near the delivery time [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of medium-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,276, down 8, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu was 954, unchanged. The basis was -72, down 16. After the exchange restricted positions, the futures price fell back. Domestic production resumed slowly, and imports were expected to increase, with overall supply slowly recovering [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to short-term declines, US sugar rebounded slightly on Tuesday. Supported by the rebound of US sugar and capital, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract trended higher on Wednesday and slightly higher at night. In July 2025, China's refined sugar production was 410,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.7%, and from January to July, it was 9.828 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3]. Rubber - In July, China's rubber tire outer tire production was 94.364 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. Concerns about weakening demand led to long liquidation, causing the Shanghai rubber futures to fall on Wednesday and consolidate at night. In July 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and from January to July, it was 5.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [4]. Soybean Meal - **International Market**: On August 20, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated, with the November contract closing at 1,035.5 cents per bushel. The Pro Farmer tour expected better soybean pod numbers in Ohio and South Dakota. Brazil's soybean exports in August were expected to be 8.9 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate [4][6]. - **Domestic Market**: On August 20, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,160 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.03%. Uncertainty about US soybean purchases and increased Brazilian soybean costs supported forward prices, but sufficient imports and high oil mill operating rates increased inventory and pressured prices. Future focus is on weather and imports [6]. Live Hogs - On August 20, live hog futures closed down, with the LH2511 main contract at 13,775 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.9%. It is currently the off-season for pork consumption, with weak demand and low orders from major pig enterprises. In August, production capacity was concentrated, and the supply of suitable pigs increased. Secondary fattening increased slightly, but the overall scale was limited. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and future focus is on policy regulation, slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [6]. Palm Oil - On August 20, palm oil futures opened lower and fluctuated slightly throughout the day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small doji, with a high of 9,594, a low of 9,456, and a close of 9,554, a decrease of 0.89%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month. As of August 17, the EU's palm oil imports in 2025/2026 were 290,000 tons, compared with 500,000 tons last year [7]. Shanghai Copper - Copper futures opened lower and trended down. It is currently the off-season for consumption, with demand supported by power grid orders. Although the low operating rate of recycled copper provides some substitution, the overall supply - demand situation remains weak. With import expectations, there is a risk of further decline in spot premiums. Technically, the main contract may fluctuate between 78,500 - 79,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to domestic real - estate policies and US non - farm data [7]. Iron Ore - On August 20, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.19% at 769 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals increased, and port inventories continued to rise. Although hot metal production increased slightly, there is an expectation of production cuts before the September parade, so short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Asphalt - On August 20, the 2510 main contract of asphalt closed up 0.12% at 3,454 yuan. Last week, asphalt production capacity utilization increased, but shipments continued to decline, and demand did not improve significantly. Short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,060 yuan per ton. On August 21, the lowest basis quote at the Xinjiang designated delivery warehouse was 1,070 yuan per ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 141 lots. The operating rate of downstream spinning mills rebounded slightly [8]. Logs - On August 20, the 25091 contract of logs opened at 805.5, with a low of 802, a high of 810.5, and closed at 805.5, with a decrease of 2,535 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and in Jiangsu, it was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged. In July, log imports were 2.5 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%, and from January to July, cumulative imports decreased by 11.7%. Higher overseas quotes drove up domestic futures prices. There is no major contradiction in supply - demand, and attention should be paid to spot prices in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [8][9][11]. Steel - On August 20, rb2510 closed at 3,132 yuan per ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,402 yuan per ton. The expectation of production restrictions on the supply side did not boost the steel market, possibly due to the off - season and weak real estate, which led to a greater contraction in demand, inventory accumulation, and strong willingness of traders to sell at lower prices. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate weakly. If low - price resource transactions improve after production restrictions are implemented in the north, supply - demand pressure will ease, and prices may stop falling [11]. Alumina - On August 20, ao2601 closed at 3,120 yuan per ton. After returning to fundamental drivers, the recent increase in domestic supply has had a negative impact on alumina prices, causing them to decline significantly. However, anti - involution may raise the price center, and it is difficult for prices to fall back to the previous low near the cost line. The medium - term supply - demand structure is loose, and the logic of resuming production remains unchanged, so supply increases will suppress prices. With supply disruptions at home and abroad and increased domestic supply, prices will continue to fluctuate [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 20, al2510 closed at 20,535 yuan per ton. The expansion of the tariff scope has a certain impact on China's exports, but it is weaker than the previous tariff increase. Emotionally, this event has impacted aluminum prices. Considering the peak - season expectation in September and the expectation of interest rate cuts, aluminum prices will likely correct rather than reverse, and overall, they will maintain a fluctuating trend [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, A - share major indices oscillated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.12%, and ChiNext Index down 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets shrank by 175.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Different futures varieties showed diverse trends, affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events [1]. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On August 19, the A - share major indices oscillated. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3727.29, down 0.02%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11821.63, down 0.12%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2601.74, down 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2588.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 175.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 4223.37, down 16.04 [1]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: Due to an approaching major event, there is a renewed expectation of production restrictions in coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved, and daily coking production has slightly increased. The overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level of downstream hot metal during the off - season, along with the market sentiment on coal over - production inspection, drives the coke price. The coke futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation [2]. - Coking Coal: The output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market is doing well, with rising transaction prices. The terminal inventory remains flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [2]. **Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar)** - Brazil exported 1,883,277.33 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 171,207.03 tons, a 4% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in August last year. Affected by the concern of decreased demand, US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Due to the decline of US sugar and the relatively large import volume in July, the short - sellers pressured the Zheng Sugar 2601 contract, which oscillated downward on Tuesday and at night [2]. **Rubber (Hu Jiao)** - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 - 25, and the Southeast Asian spot quotation is firm. The decline in oil prices and the news of tri - lateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian crude oil. Affected by these factors, Hu Jiao oscillated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Tuesday. Due to the significant increase in inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone last week, Hu Jiao oscillated lower at night. As of August 17, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3100 tons (0.50%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12% to 76,900 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% to 539,800 tons [3][4]. **Palm Oil** - On August 19, palm oil reached a new high, but in the afternoon, long - position holders took profits, causing the price to give back some gains at the end of the session. The main contract P2601 closed with a small doji star with an upper shadow, closing at 9640, up 0.58% from the previous day. From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.88% month - on - month [4]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on August 19, CBOT soybean futures oscillated and closed lower. The US Department of Agriculture maintained the soybean crop condition rating at 68% in the weekly report, the same as last year and the highest since 2020. Domestically, on August 19, the M2601 main contract closed at 3163 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, oil mills are operating at a high capacity, and the soybean meal inventory is high. Although the Brazilian premium has slightly declined, the high price of US soybeans keeps the domestic import cost high. The expected tightening of supply in the fourth quarter provides support for the soybean meal market. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean imports [5]. **Live Hogs** - On August 19, the live hog futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption, and the high - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig - raising enterprises is low, and the operation level is low, suppressing the price. In August, the production capacity is being realized, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the planned slaughter of group pig - raising enterprises has increased month - on - month. Although the number of secondary fattening has increased, the overall scale is limited. The live hog market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation, hog slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [6]. **Iron Ore** - On August 19, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.64%, closing at 771 yuan. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The hot metal output has slightly increased, but with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September parade, there is an expectation of hot metal production reduction. In the short term, the iron ore price will oscillate [6]. **Asphalt** - On August 19, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.6%, closing at 3453 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month, the shipment volume continued to decline, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [6]. **Log** - On August 19, the 25091 log contract opened at 809.5, with a low of 807, a high of 816.5, and closed at 810.5, with a daily reduction of 1113 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that the log import volume in July was 2.5 million cubic meters, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative import volume from January - July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in the overseas quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on the price [7]. **Cotton** - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13955 yuan/ton. On August 20, the minimum basis quotation at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 166 lots from the previous day. India announced on August 18 that it will fully exempt cotton import tariffs and agricultural surcharges from August 19 to September 30 [7][8]. **Shanghai Copper (Hu Tong)** - Shanghai copper oscillated with a slight decline. On the one hand, the concentrated arrival of imported copper in Shanghai has increased the inventory, and there is still pressure on subsequent shipments, which may lead to a decline in the spot premium and affect the futures price. On the other hand, it is the off - season for copper consumption, and the demand is mainly supported by power grid orders, so the consumption side cannot strongly boost the price. In the long term, the new - energy demand provides some support for the price, and the expected increase in copper mine production but the decline in the global refined copper supply growth rate in 2025 will also affect the price [8]. **Steel** - On August 19, the rb2510 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3416 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in the off - season continues to decline, and the supply - demand pressure has increased. Considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment is not strong. The raw materials have shown different trends, with coke starting the seventh price increase and Shagang reducing the scrap steel purchase price by 30 yuan/ton. In the short term, the steel price may oscillate weakly [8]. **Alumina** - On August 19, the ao2601 contract closed at 3120 yuan/ton. Recently, the production reduction of some alumina plants has slightly decreased the operating capacity and output. However, the raw material inventory of aluminum plants has reached a historical high, and the提货 willingness has weakened, leading to a slowdown in demand and an increase in inventory. With the expected release of new production capacity, there is still pressure on supply surplus. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of production reduction policies around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei on alumina production. Currently, the market is mixed, with the rapid increase in warehouse receipt inventory competing with structural shortages, and the alumina price will continue to oscillate [9]. **Shanghai Aluminum (Hu Lu)** - On August 19, the al2510 contract closed at 20545 yuan/ton. The aluminum price maintains a weak range structure, oscillating with low trading volume. The center of the price range is lower, and it oscillates narrowly. Downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching. The high inventory of aluminum ingots puts pressure on the spot price. Although there is an expectation of stockpiling before the peak season, the high inventory and weak aluminum price have limited support for the premium [9].