Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 9, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.41% to 4123.09, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.17% to 14208.44, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.98% to 3332.77. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges reached 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures market: - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4719.06, up 75.46 [2]. - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1708.5, down 17.6 [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index closed at 1157.4 yuan, down 7.0 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar 2605: Oscillated higher during the day and night sessions, boosted by the increase in spot prices and capital inflows [4]. - Rubber: Oscillated higher during the day and night sessions, influenced by the positive heavy - truck sales data in January [4]. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 9014, down 0.13% [5]. - Soybean Meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 2729 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [5]. - Live Pigs: The main contract LH2605 closed at 11565 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The main contract showed a strong - internal and stable - external pattern, closing at 101840 yuan/ton [5]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 14630 yuan/ton at night, with an increase of 5 lots in inventory [5]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 main contract closed down 0.46% at 761.5 yuan [6]. - Asphalt: The 2603 main contract closed down 0.98% at 3334 yuan [6]. - Logs: The 2603 main contract closed at 775, with a daily reduction of 1711 lots [6]. - Steel: rb2605 closed at 3064 yuan/ton, hc2605 closed at 3239 yuan/ton [6]. - Alumina: ao2605 closed at 2868 yuan/ton [6]. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2603 closed at 23540 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Core Views - **Coke and Coking Coal**: After the first round of coke price increase, the production losses of coking enterprises have eased. The supply of coke is marginally looser, and the demand from steel mills has improved, but pre - holiday stocking is nearing completion. For coking coal, the supply from mines and washing plants has decreased, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The 2605 contract was boosted by the increase in spot prices. It is expected that the EU's beet planting area will decrease in the 2026/27 season, leading to a decline in sugar production [4]. - **Rubber**: The positive heavy - truck sales data in January supported the rubber price [4]. - **Palm oil**: The price was in a low - range consolidation [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the international market, the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest and high production expectations put pressure on prices. In the domestic market, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is high in February, and the demand is in a seasonal peak. In the medium - term, the supply will continue to exceed demand [5]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The price is affected by both positive factors such as mine disturbances and negative factors such as high inventory [5]. - **Cotton**: Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand before the holiday, and they are cautious about increasing inventory [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand growth is limited. The price is in a volatile trend [6]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is low, the demand is shrinking, and the price is in a volatile state [6]. - **Logs**: Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. - **Steel**: The market is in a wait - and - see state due to weak post - holiday demand expectations and high iron ore inventory [6]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading atmosphere has improved, but the over - capacity situation remains [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The market sentiment is cooling, the supply is stable, and the demand is weakening [6]. 3. Impact Factors - **Coke**: The production profit of coking enterprises has improved, the supply has increased, and the pre - holiday stocking of steel mills is almost over [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply from mines and washing plants has decreased, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The increase in spot prices and the expected decrease in EU sugar production [4]. - **Rubber**: The positive heavy - truck sales data [4]. - **Palm oil**: No specific impact factors mentioned other than the price trend [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean harvest progress, high domestic supply, and weakening demand [5]. - **Live Pigs**: High supply in February, seasonal peak demand, and high medium - term supply expectations [5]. - **Shanghai Copper**: Positive factors include mine disturbances and domestic policy support; negative factors include high inventory and weak international market [5]. - **Cotton**: Rigid demand procurement by textile enterprises before the holiday and concerns about post - holiday market fluctuations [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Increasing supply and limited demand growth [6]. - **Asphalt**: Low supply, shrinking demand [6]. - **Logs**: Spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. - **Steel**: Weak post - holiday demand expectations and high iron ore inventory [6]. - **Alumina**: Improved spot trading atmosphere but over - capacity [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Cooling market sentiment, stable supply, and weakening demand [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 6, the A - share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73%. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 30.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and macro - economic factors. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On February 6, the A - share market declined, and the CSI 300 index was weak and volatile, closing at 4643.60, a decrease of 26.82 compared to the previous day [1][2]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On February 6, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1703.0, a decrease of 45.0; the coking coal weighted index was range - bound, closing at 1149.3 yuan, a decrease of 41.7 [2][3]. - Coke: Coking profit is average, daily production slightly decreased, inventory increased slightly. Trade procurement may improve after the first price increase. Overall, carbon supply is abundant, downstream iron - making is in the off - season, steel profit is average, and there is strong pressure on raw material prices [4]. - Coking coal: Mongolian coal customs clearance is 1350 vehicles. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased gradually, but the transaction price increased due to the rise in the futures price. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly while production - end inventory decreased slightly. Winter storage demand is coming to an end [4]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by global oversupply, US sugar oscillated slightly lower on Friday. Zhengzhou sugar contract 2605 oscillated slightly higher in the night session on Friday. As of the week ending February 3, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 40,734 contracts to 214,478 contracts [4]. **Rubber** - Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly lower on Friday. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory was 124,580 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous period; the futures warehouse receipts were 112,070 tons, an increase of 1140 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 52,819 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons; the futures warehouse receipts were 51,004 tons, a decrease of 2621 tons. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points [4]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on February 6, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly. After the China - US leaders' phone call, the market expects China to increase soybean purchases from the US, which may reduce the inventory pressure of US soybeans. As of the week ending January 29, US soybean export sales increased by 437,400 tons, in line with expectations. Brazilian soybeans are in the early stage of harvest, with a harvest rate of over 10%, and the expected production is above 181 million tons, which helps to reduce the expected production decline in Argentina due to local drought. - Domestically, on February 6, the main soybean meal contract 2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The domestic soybean market has a loose supply. In the last week of January, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills reached a high of 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal output increased. At the end of the month, the soybean meal inventory slightly rebounded to about 900,000 tons. It is recommended to focus on South American weather changes and soybean arrival volume [6]. **Live Pigs** - On February 6, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the previous day. In terms of supply, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the daily slaughter plan of farmers increases, and there is an oversupply of suitable - weight pigs. In terms of demand, consumer demand has entered the seasonal peak, and residents' stockpiling for the Spring Festival increases, providing short - term support for pig prices. In the medium term, the inventory of breeding sows and the replenishment of piglets are both at a high level, and the market supply exceeds demand. It is necessary to focus on the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the realization of peak - season demand [6]. **Shanghai Copper** - On February 6, the main Shanghai copper contract (CU2603) opened lower, fluctuated widely, and closed down 2.34%, at 100,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2400 yuan from the previous settlement. The intraday range was 97,920 - 101,420 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 3.5%, and the trading volume was 2.673 million lots. LME and SHFE inventories continued to rise, and domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, increasing short - term supply pressure. Globally, risk appetite declined, US technology stocks tumbled, and crude oil prices fell. Weak US employment data raised recession concerns, leading to the selling of risk assets. Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand was weak, processing enterprises gradually shut down, and spot transactions were light. However, there are China's copper concentrate strategic and commercial reserve policies [6]. **Cotton** - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,620 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 75 lots compared to the previous day. Textile enterprises had a high pre - holiday operating rate and made rigid purchases on a need - to - use basis [6]. **Iron Ore** - On February 6, the main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined, with a decrease of 1.23%, closing at 760.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to increase month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume increased slightly, and port inventory continued to accumulate. As the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of steel mills neared the end, the growth space of molten iron was limited, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [6]. **Asphalt** - On February 6, the main asphalt contract 2603 oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.92%, closing at 3386 yuan. Asphalt supply remained low, refinery inventory pressure was not high, terminal demand continued to decline, and pre - holiday spot transactions were light. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating trend [6]. **Log** - The main log contract 2603 opened at 802 on Friday, with a minimum of 780.5, a maximum of 802.5, and closed at 784, with a reduction of 1932 lots in positions. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the support from the spot market and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 6, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port coniferous log inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a 15 - and - a - half - month low. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and the support from macro - expectations and market sentiment [6][8]. **Steel** - The domestic construction steel market showed a "weak and stable" pattern, with narrowing price fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approached, construction projects across the country basically entered the final and shutdown stages, and terminal procurement demand decreased. Market transactions were mainly sporadic rigid demand and a small amount of winter - storage resource circulation among traders. The daily trading volume of national construction steel continued to decline, and the market was generally in a state of "having prices but no transactions", and the demand's driving effect on prices temporarily disappeared [8]. **Alumina** - On the raw material side, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually decreasing, and domestic bauxite supply is gradually sufficient. Coupled with the relatively high raw material inventory of alumina plants, the purchasing demand is weak, so the bauxite price has loosened, and the cost support for alumina has weakened. On the supply side, the alumina futures market performed well, driving the production enthusiasm of smelters, and the operating rate has increased. The current domestic supply is still relatively large, and the industrial inventory is slightly accumulating. On the demand side, the newly put - into - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum gradually increases the demand for alumina, but due to the industry's capacity ceiling, the increase is limited, and the raw material consumption generally increases steadily [8]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - Fundamentally, on the supply side, the price of raw material alumina is at a low level. Although the aluminum price has回调, the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is still good. Coupled with the high start - stop cost of smelters, the production operation remains at a high and stable level, and the operating capacity has increased slightly, but limited by the industry ceiling, the increase is limited, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is generally stable. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises made pre - holiday stockpiling at low prices as the aluminum price回调. As the stockpiling nears the end and affected by the long - holiday shutdown, downstream demand may gradually weaken. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly improved demand, and the industrial inventory accumulates seasonally [8].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 5, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share three major indices collectively pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to close at 4075.92; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.44% to 13952.71; the ChiNext Index declined 1.55% to 3260.28. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was only 2.1945 trillion yuan, a decrease of 309 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Futures Market**: - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 4670.42, a decrease of 28.26 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index oscillated and consolidated, closing at 1742.0, a decrease of 12.8. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1181.6 yuan, a decrease of 26.6 [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on February 5, despite the decline in US sugar on Wednesday due to abundant spot supply. In January, Guangxi produced 2.0871 million tons of sugar, an increase of 21,500 tons year - on - year; sold 665,800 tons, a decrease of 82,900 tons year - on - year; and had an industrial inventory of 2.4784 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons year - on - year. Yunnan produced 591,800 tons of sugar in January, sold 250,600 tons, and had an industrial inventory of 452,100 tons [4]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures fell on February 5 due to the decline in the weekly operating rate of tire factories. The semi - steel tire sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points month - on - month; the full - steel tire sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points month - on - month [4][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures continued to rise on February 5. Stonex estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 181.6 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the January forecast. In the domestic market, the soybean meal main 2605 contract closed at 2731 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase. At the end of January, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose slightly to about 900,000 tons [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 11,685 yuan/ton on February 5, a 0.43% decrease from the previous trading day. In February, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs remained high, while consumer demand entered a seasonal peak [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil main contract P2605 continued to decline on February 5, closing at 9042, a 1.05% decrease from the previous trading day. Malaysia's palm oil production in January was estimated to decrease by 14% to 1.57 million tons [5]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main contract showed a trend of rising and then falling on February 5, with significant capital outflows. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 101,260 - 101,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3760 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,620 yuan/ton on the night of February 5, with an increase of 62 lots in inventory compared to the previous trading day. Textile enterprises made rigid - demand purchases [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract fell 1.73% on February 5, closing at 768.5 yuan. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil continued to increase, and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2603 main contract fell 0.36% on February 5, closing at 3339 yuan. Asphalt supply remained low, refinery inventory pressure was not large, and terminal demand continued to shrink [6]. - **Log**: The log 2603 main contract closed at 802 on February 5, with a decrease of 407 lots in positions. The port coniferous log inventory had declined for three consecutive weeks [6]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton on February 5. The increase in social inventory slowed down, while the warehouse - receipt inventory increased. The spot market trading atmosphere weakened, and the price was under pressure [6]. - **Aluminum**: The al2603 contract closed at 23,385 yuan/ton on February 5. The downstream purchasing sentiment was slightly improved due to the decline in aluminum prices, but the overall purchasing sentiment was still low. The industry's inventory continued to accumulate [6]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed a collective pull - back on February 5, with reduced trading volume [1]. - In the futures market, different varieties had different trends. Some were affected by supply - demand relationships, such as coke and coking coal with changes in supply and demand from upstream and downstream; some were influenced by international market conditions, like soybean meal affected by Brazilian and Argentine soybean production prospects; and some were related to seasonal factors, such as live pigs and palm oil [4][5]. 3. Future Outlook - For soybean meal, it is recommended to focus on South American weather changes and soybean arrival volume [5]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. - For copper, focus on the support at the 100,000 - yuan mark, inventory, and macro - news guidance [5]. - For iron ore, the short - term price will be in a volatile trend [6]. - For asphalt, the short - term price will show a volatile operation [6]. - For logs, follow the spot - price support, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6]. - For alumina, although it is expected to stabilize, the rebound pressure is large after the Spring Festival [6]. - For aluminum, the short - term price volatility risk in the aluminum and non - ferrous metal markets has significantly increased, and the price may be affected by factors such as the Fed's policy shift [6][7].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On February 4, 2026, A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.85%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.21%, and ChiNext Index down 0.4%. The trading volume of the three markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 6.23 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Different futures varieties had various trends and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some were affected by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, international news, and policy expectations [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On February 4, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.20, up 0.85%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3311.51, down 0.4%. The trading volume of the three markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 6.23 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4698.68, up 38.58 [1][2] 3.2 Coke and Coking Coal - On February 4, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1773.1, up 48.8. The coking coal weighted index trended stronger, closing at 1217.1 yuan, up 40.4. The price of coke futures was affected by factors such as steel mills' acceptance of price increases, environmental protection, and supply - demand. The price of coking coal was affected by factors such as steel mill production, coal mine production cycles, imports, and downstream demand [2][3][4] 3.3 Zhengzhou Sugar - The 2026/27 global sugar surplus is expected to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than 4.7 million tons in 2025/26. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher on February 4, affected by factors such as the expected reduction in the supply surplus in the next season and the increase in US sugar prices [4] 3.4 Rubber - Affected by the general rise of commodities and the increase in the stock market, Shanghai rubber fluctuated higher on February 4. Due to large short - term gains, it fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In 2025, Hainan's natural rubber production was 349,500 tons, and Yunnan's was 613,500 tons. In 2025, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 1.672 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [5] 3.5 Soybean Meal - On February 4, the CBOT soybean futures in the international market were strong, reaching a two - month high. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the harvest rate has reached 10%. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2723 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the inventory has increased again. The soybean meal futures price lacks upward momentum [5] 3.6 Live Pigs - On February 4, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11735 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure is large due to possible early concentrated slaughter. The demand for Spring Festival stocking provides short - term support, but the market is still in a situation of oversupply in the medium term [5] 3.7 Palm Oil - On February 4, the palm oil night session opened higher but then fluctuated downward. The main contract P2605 closed at 9138, up 0.48%. In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [5] 3.8 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract (2603) closed at 105160 yuan/ton. Driven by policies such as national reserve expansion and the suspension of some smelting projects, the supply is expected to shrink. In January, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons (year - on - year + 16.32%), and it is expected to decrease by 3.04% in February. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory pressure still exists [5][6][8] 3.9 Cotton - On February 4, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14655 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory increased by 38 lots. The 2025/26 Chinese cotton production is expected to be 7.512 million tons, a significant increase compared to the previous report [8] 3.10 Iron Ore - On February 4, the 2605 main iron ore contract closed down 0.32% at 781.5 yuan. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has rebounded, the domestic arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [8] 3.11 Asphalt - On February 4, the 2603 main asphalt contract closed up 1.69% at 3361 yuan. The refinery production plan in February has decreased slightly, and the market is in the off - season. The asphalt price shows a volatile trend in the short term [8] 3.12 Logs - On February 4, the 2603 main log contract opened at 801, with a minimum of 798, a maximum of 810.5, and closed at 807.5, with an increase of 427 lots in positions. The port coniferous log inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price is affected by factors such as the spot market, import data, and inventory changes [8][9] 3.13 Steel - On February 4, rb2605 closed at 3110 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3274 yuan/ton. The steel market activity has continued to decline, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [9] 3.14 Alumina - On February 4, ao2605 closed at 2824 yuan/ton. There is no news of subsequent production cuts before the Spring Festival, and the new planned production capacity may be put into operation after the Spring Festival. The spot market is in a mild state [9] 3.15 Shanghai Aluminum - On February 4, al2603 closed at 23955 yuan/ton. The supply side is stable, the social inventory continues to accumulate, and the demand side shows a slight decline [9][10]

Report Summary on February 4, 2026 1. Market Performance on February 3, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% to 4067.74, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.19% to 14127.11, and ChiNext Index up 1.86% to 3324.89. The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 25,658 billion yuan, a decrease of 411 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 index stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 4660.11, up 54.13 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1718.7, down 2.2. The first - round price increase was fully implemented, with general coking profits, slightly decreased daily production, and a small increase in inventory. Traders' purchasing willingness may improve [2][4]. - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index of coking coal had an interval consolidation, closing at 1176.6 yuan, down 2.1. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 913 vehicles. Coking coal mine output slightly increased, but spot auction transactions gradually declined. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory of coking coal rose sharply [3][4]. 2.2 Sugar - The US sugar had a slight decline after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on February 3 due to lower spot prices and rose slightly at night. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, a 18.35% increase from the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a slight increase after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons and continued to rise at night driven by the stabilization and rebound of the non - ferrous metal market. As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 59.17 million tons, a 1.23% increase from the previous period [4]. 2.4 Soybean and Bean Meal - Brazilian soybean is in the early harvest period, and institutions have raised the production outlook. Stonex expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 181.6 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the January forecast. The domestic bean meal 2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.84%. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the downstream demand is declining, with inventory accumulating again. As of the end of the 54th week of 2026, the bean meal inventory was 94.7 million tons, an increase of 4.02 million tons from the previous week [6]. 2.5 Livestock (Pig) - The main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.3%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter window is narrowing, and farmers may sell pigs in advance, increasing the supply. The pre - festival demand provides limited support. In the medium term, the high inventory of sows and piglet replenishment will ensure future supply, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil market continued to fluctuate weakly after a high - level decline on February 3, with the decline easing. The main contract P2605 closed at 9094, up 0.89%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31, 2026, were 1.375718 million tons, a 14.89% increase from the previous month. As of January 30, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 70.14 million tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week and a 43.00% increase from the same period last year [6]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a deep V - shaped reversal. Driven by policy support (expanding strategic copper reserves), a weak US dollar, and rising LME copper prices, the market sentiment improved. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum al2603 closed at 23,035 yuan/ton on February 3. The market is evaluating the new Fed chairman candidate's monetary policy, which is currently bearish for the metal market. The supply is stable, and the social inventory is high. The demand is improving slightly, but the negative feedback from small and medium - sized factories is strengthening [7]. 2.8 Other Commodities - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 fell 1.14% to 777.5 yuan on February 3. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic arrival volume also increased slightly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the short - term price will fluctuate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan on February 3. The refinery's production plan in February decreased slightly, and the market demand was weak in the off - season, so the price will fluctuate [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,660 yuan/ton at night on February 3. The inventory increased by 75 lots. Textile enterprises' pre - festival replenishment willingness is low, and about 80% of the US cotton - producing areas are in drought as of January 27 [7]. - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 closed at 801 on February 3, with a decrease of 169 lots. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The port's coniferous log inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3265 yuan/ton on February 3. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the market activity is low. The steel price will fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2809 yuan/ton on February 3. Some alumina plants in Shanxi, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Henan have reduced production, which supports the futures price to some extent. However, the overall oversupply situation remains, and the price is under pressure [7].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 2, 2026 - A-shares tumbled: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.48% to 4015.75, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69% to 13824.35, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.46% to 3264.11. The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 2606.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Indexes and commodities: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4605.98, down 100.36. The coke weighted index closed at 1683.5, down 58.6, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1151.8 yuan, down 31.7 [2][3]. 2. Futures Market Analysis a. Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: Coke enterprises'开工 declined, and inventory increased significantly due to winter storage. The demand side saw an increase in blast furnace 开工 but a decrease in molten iron production. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. Supply contracted, and pre - holiday winter storage was nearing its end [4]. - Coking coal: The 开工 of coal washing plants and mines decreased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume declined from its high. Total coking coal inventory increased. The demand side, including coke enterprises' load and molten iron production, continued to decline. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal was reported at 1390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1305 yuan/ton on the futures market [4]. b. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Friday, the drop in crude oil prices, and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward on Monday. Green Pool predicted that the global sugar market surplus in 2026/27 would shrink to 156,000 tons from 2.74 million tons in 2025/26, mainly due to a decrease in production [4]. c. Rubber - Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices and the stock market crash, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated sharply downward on Monday. In 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) were 2.669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. The total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 4.422 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [4]. d. Palm Oil - On February 2, affected by macro - funds sentiment, the commodity market dropped significantly, and the palm oil market also declined from its high. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9014, down 2.45% from the previous trading day [5]. e. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined slightly on February 2. The strong US dollar weakened US export competitiveness. Brazil's soybean harvest was in its early stage with normal weather. As of January 24, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 6.6%, higher than 3.2% in the same period last year. Stonex predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach a record - high of 181.6 million tons. Domestically, the soybean meal main contract 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton, down 0.61%. Domestic imported soybean supply was abundant, and pre - holiday stocking was nearing its end. The soybean meal futures price lacked upward momentum [5]. f. Live Hogs - On February 2, the live hog main contract LH2603 closed at 11220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Before the Spring Festival, the window for live hog slaughter was narrowing, and the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises increased. The market's price - support mentality weakened, and the supply pressure before the festival increased. The demand side was supported by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase was limited. In the medium - term, the market's supply - exceeding - demand situation was difficult to change [5]. g. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper futures tumbled. The main contract 2603 closed at 98580 yuan/ton. The core reasons included profit - taking by long - position holders, the rebound of the US dollar, warnings of supply surplus, and increased market caution [5]. h. Iron Ore - On February 2, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated downward, with a decline of 1.26% to 783 yuan. The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, while domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [5]. i. Asphalt - On February 2, the asphalt 2603 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 4.87% to 3299 yuan. In February, refinery production decreased slightly, and the market was in the off - season with weak demand. The asphalt price was in an oscillating state in the short term [5]. j. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14635 yuan/ton at night on February 2. Cotton inventory increased by 36 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises purchased on a just - in - time basis [6]. k. Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 805, closed at 795, and decreased its positions by 1052 lots. The port's softwood log inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks. The spot price of some logs increased slightly [6]. l. Steel - On February 2, the rb2605 contract closed at 3098 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3261 yuan/ton. Steel demand continued to contract, and the supply - demand pressure before the festival increased. The raw material price decreased, and the inventory of social warehouses increased. Steel prices may have a weak and narrow - range adjustment in the short term [6]. m. Alumina - On February 2, the ao2605 contract closed at 2772 yuan/ton. The cost of bauxite decreased, and inventory accumulated before the Spring Festival. The downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum was weak. The alumina price may maintain an oscillating and weak trend in the short term [6]. n. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 2, the al2603 contract closed at 23035 yuan/ton. The market was cautious about the potential new Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions eased, and the non - ferrous metals market continued to decline. The supply was stable, inventory was high, and demand showed only slight improvement [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 30, the A-share market showed a mixed trend with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27%, and the trading volume decreased by 397 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The prices of various futures products, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, etc., were affected by different factors such as market supply - demand, international production, and macro - market sentiment [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3346.36, up 1.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.8627 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on January 30, closing at 4706.34, a decrease of 47.53 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 30, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1723.6, up 21.3 from the previous day [2] - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation on January 30, closing at 1163.8 yuan, up 14.7 from the previous day [3] - The first - round increase in coke prices has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. The iron - water production decreased slightly this period, and the export volume in December increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4] - The output of sample mines of coking coal declined, the port inventory of Mongolian coal was about 4 million tons with high pressure, and China's annual import of coking coal in 2025 decreased year - on - year [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Indian Sugar Trade Association expects India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season to increase by 13% to 29.6 million tons, but the export volume will still be below the quota of 800,000 tons. Affected by this, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures declined [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined on January 30. The inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber changed accordingly [4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, Argentina's soybean crops are facing a potential yield reduction due to high - temperature drought, while Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the USDA expects a high - yield of 178 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal price is under pressure, and the futures price lacks a continuous upward drive [5] Live Pigs - On January 30, the live - pig futures contract LH2603 closed at 11,220 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change [5] Shanghai Copper - On January 30, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2603 closed at 103,680 yuan/ton. The market was affected by factors such as short - selling by the top 20 short - position holders, weak downstream procurement, and pre - festival risk aversion [5] Iron Ore - On January 30, the iron - ore futures contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 791.5 yuan. With an increase in Australian and Brazilian iron - ore supply, a decrease in domestic arrivals, and slow pre - festival restocking by steel mills, the iron - ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On January 30, the asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 0.38% at 3424 yuan. In February, the refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and the price is in a volatile state supported by cost [5] Logs - The logs futures contract 2603 opened at 789, closed at 798 on January 30, with a decrease of 125 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [5][6][7] Cotton - On January 30, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,770 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 46 lots. As of January 29, the cotton procurement rate was 99%, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [7] Steel - Before the Spring Festival, steel prices fluctuated slightly due to a lack of industrial contradictions and weak speculative demand. After the Spring Festival, the market still faces pressure, but policy expectations may provide some support [7] Alumina - The supply of alumina may decrease slightly during the holiday due to production shutdowns and maintenance, while the demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum production capacity stays high [7] Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of Shanghai aluminum remains stable as the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is good and production capacity is high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season and pre - holiday factors, and social inventory is increasing [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 29, 2026, the A - share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.30% and 0.57% respectively. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 325.97 billion yuan, an increase of 267.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends on January 29, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, international market conditions, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.30%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3304.51, down 0.57%. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges reached 325.97 billion yuan, an increase of 267.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4753.87, up 35.88 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index was strong on January 29, closing at 1725.5, up 53.5. Supply is stable, and after the fourth round of price cuts, coking plants are in continuous loss. Steel mills' profitability is improving, and coal price increases have led coking plants to propose the first - round price increase, which steel mills are expected to accept by the end of the month. The average daily pig iron output last week was 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons month - on - month. Downstream steel mills have weak sentiment for winter storage, with only 1 - 2 days of inventory space left [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index fluctuated widely on January 29, closing at 1172.8 yuan, up 43.6. The domestic coal mine production is at a high level at the end of January, Mongolian coal customs clearance has slightly decreased, and the import profit of seaborne coal is inverted. The total supply is relatively abundant. The first - stage winter storage of downstream enterprises has basically ended, coal mines have full orders, and the inventory transfer is smooth. The speculation sentiment has declined. The first - round price increase of coke has been postponed until the end of the month [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Due to the increased pre - holiday stocking demand of enterprises, the spot price was raised today. The rise in crude oil prices boosted short - covering, driving the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to rise on Thursday. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for February 2026 is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [4] Rubber - Rubber trees in northern Thailand have started to shed leaves, indicating the approaching end of the tapping season. Rubber production in Vietnam and Cote d'Ivoire has also begun to decline. The low - production period for rubber trees is usually from February to May. Market concerns about supply reduction in major producing countries have emerged. Affected by the sharp increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the rise in crude oil prices, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise at night. In December 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 5.8% year - on - year to 963,319 units, and the annual sales in 2025 increased slightly by 0.8% to about 10.6 million units, still far below the pre - pandemic level [4][5] Palm Oil - On January 29, palm oil futures continued to rise, with the main contract P2605 closing at 9362, up 0.99% from the previous trading day. Although there is a lack of driving factors in the news, the approaching Indian New Year consumption season and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil, along with the reduction of export tariffs, have strengthened the inventory - reduction logic [5] Soybean Meal - International market: On January 29, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1072 cents per bushel, down 0.26%. The weak US dollar has enhanced the export competitiveness of US soybeans, and concerns about the Argentine weather have supported the market. However, the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increasing harvesting pressure have limited the rise of US soybeans. Brazilian soybeans are in the early harvesting stage, and the expected output is estimated to reach 181 million tons. As of last Thursday, the harvesting completion rate was 4.9%, higher than 3.9% in the same period last year [5] - Domestic market: On January 29, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2783 yuan per ton, up 0.72%. Pre - holiday stocking demand has started, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased continuously, with the price remaining in a narrow - range shock. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 41,200 tons. After the Spring Festival, the supply of imported soybeans in China will remain loose, and the soybean meal futures price lacks a continuous upward - driving force [5] Live Pigs - On January 29, the main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11165 yuan per ton, down 0.93%. Recently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises has increased. The price - support sentiment in the market has weakened, and some production capacity originally scheduled for February may be slaughtered ahead of schedule. On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking has started, but the overall demand increase is general. In the medium - term, the supply pressure remains large [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2603 contract soared and broke through the historical high, and the London copper also set a record. Driven by the resonance of macro - factors, supply - demand relationships, and capital, the short - term market sentiment is hot, but downstream buyers are more cautious. The closing price was about 109,110 yuan per ton, with a maximum of 110,970 yuan per ton and a minimum of 102,260 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 453,000 lots, and the open interest was 243,000 lots. The reasons for the rise include supply contraction (mine disturbances in Chile and Indonesia, low TC, smelting production cuts, high invoice points for recycled copper, and restricted transactions), strong demand (driven by energy transformation, AI computing power, and power grid investment, and supported by the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and pre - holiday restocking), macro - economic support (increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weak US dollar), and inventory structure issues (low LME deliverable inventory and a sharp increase in COMEX inventory) [5] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,900 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 34 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises purchase as they use [5] Iron Ore - On January 29, the main iron ore 2605 contract rose by 1.78%, closing at 798.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, the domestic arrival volume has continued to decline, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. Currently, steel mills still have pre - holiday restocking demand, and the pig iron output has slightly increased. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On January 29, the main asphalt 2603 contract rose by 3.39%, closing at 3478 yuan. The refinery production plan for February has decreased slightly, the supply remains at a low level. Affected by the off - season, the shipment volume has decreased month - on - month, and the terminal market procurement is weak. However, the relatively strong crude oil price at the cost end has supported the asphalt price, which shows a volatile trend in the short term [6] Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 775 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 773, a maximum of 790.5, and a closing price of 785, with an increase of 119 lots in open interest. On January 29, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Future attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the impact of macro - economic expectations and market sentiment on prices [6] Steel - On January 29, rb2605 closed at 3157 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan per ton. Due to the intensifying geopolitical tensions, international futures prices of crude oil and metals have risen, driving up domestic commodity futures prices. The first - round price increase of coke will be implemented this Friday, which will continue to support steel prices. However, the restocking of steel mills' raw materials is coming to an end, the pre - holiday steel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand pressure has slightly increased, so the steel price is not likely to rise continuously. In the short term, the steel price may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] Alumina - On January 29, ao2605 closed at 2816 yuan per ton. On the raw material side, the shipment volume of new mines in Guinea has increased, putting pressure on the price of imported ores. On the cost side, the decline in caustic soda prices has weakened the cost support for alumina. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum plants mainly execute long - term contracts and replenish inventory as needed. In the spot market, holders are eager to sell, and there is a phenomenon of chasing up and restocking in the downstream market. The inquiry atmosphere was strong in the morning, but in the afternoon, although the futures price continued to rise and holders raised the price, the market's rigid - demand restocking was basically saturated, and the trading atmosphere cooled down [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 29, al2603 closed at 25,590 yuan per ton. Aluminum plants are operating stably, the production capacity is running well, the aluminum - water ratio has declined slightly, the supply of aluminum ingots is abundant, and the social inventory has accumulated slightly, still remaining at a high level year - on - year. The demand pressure continues to increase, and downstream purchases have further shrunk, but the negative feedback transmission is insufficient. In different fields, there is some pressure in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial material sectors, and the demand for aluminum rods is weak. The processing fee remains weak, and some enterprises have stopped taking orders. The pre - holiday production has continued to decline. The market is paying close attention to geopolitical and metal - related dynamics and is in a wait - and - see mood [6]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 28, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 4151.24, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14342.89, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57% to 3323.56. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2992.6 billion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: It closed at 4717.99, up 12.30 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1686.5, down 2.0 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1142.6 yuan, up 6.1 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward. The price of Brazilian sugar was affected by dry weather, and the spot price limited its upside. At night, it continued to rise due to short - covering [4]. - Rubber: Affected by the expected decrease in spot supply and rising crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher. At night, it oscillated and closed slightly higher due to technical factors [4]. - Palm Oil: The futures contract P2605 closed at 9270, up 0.35%. From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month [6]. - Asphalt: The 2603 contract closed at 3410 yuan, up 3.96%. Refinery supply was low, inventory was slightly accumulated, and prices oscillated due to cost support [8]. 2.2 Agricultural Futures - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.68% to 1074.75 cents per bushel. The domestic M2505 contract rose 0.58% to 2782 yuan/ton. Brazilian harvest pressure and US dollar weakness co - existed. Domestic inventory decreased, and post - holiday supply was expected to be loose [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2603 contract closed at 11270 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Supply pressure increased, and demand support was limited [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14875 yuan/ton at night, and inventory increased by 4 lots [6]. 2.3 Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2603 contract closed at 103060 yuan/ton. It first declined and then rebounded. Volume and open interest decreased. Inventory accumulated, and demand was weak [6]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 contract closed at 783 yuan, down 0.7%. Port inventory increased, and prices oscillated due to pre - holiday restocking demand [8]. - Steel: The rb2605 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3280 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, costs had some support, and prices were expected to adjust narrowly [8]. - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton. The oversupply situation was hard to change in the short term, and prices were expected to oscillate [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 contract closed at 25640 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, inventory increased slightly, and demand pressure increased [8]. 2.4 Log Futures - Logs: The 2603 contract closed at 775.5. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu was stable. Attention should be paid to spot support [6][8]. 3. Market Analysis - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke production was at a low level due to losses, and demand was rigid. Coking coal supply was loose both domestically and abroad, and demand was weak [4]. - Soybean Meal: International market was affected by Brazilian harvest and US dollar. Domestic market had pre - holiday demand and post - holiday supply concerns [6]. - Live Hogs: Supply pressure was high in the medium term, and demand increase during the Spring Festival was limited [6]. - Iron Ore: Port inventory was rising, and prices were oscillating due to pre - holiday restocking [8]. - Steel: Weak demand and high costs led to narrow price adjustments [8]. - Alumina: Oversupply and cost decline limited price increases [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: Supply was stable, and demand pressure was gradually emerging [8].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 27, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 4139.90, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14329.91, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.71% to 3342.60. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2921.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 359.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4705.69, a decrease of 1.27 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Black Futures - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1670.5, a decrease of 47.1. The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. Due to high coal prices, coke enterprises' profits are generally in a loss state, and the demand for coke may further weaken [2][4]. - **Coking coal**: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1123.8 yuan, a decrease of 33.7. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 57 yuan to 1483 yuan/ton. The demand of downstream coke enterprises decreased slightly [3][4]. 2.2. Agricultural Futures - **Sugar**: Affected by the increase in Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of January, the US sugar stabilized and oscillated. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated narrowly and closed slightly lower [4]. - **Natural rubber**: Due to large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber continued its narrow - range oscillation. The total inventory in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with a 5.03% decrease in bonded warehouses and a 0.95% increase in general trade warehouses [4][5]. - **Soybean meal**: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.71% to 1060.5 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean meal main contract M2505 fell 0.11% to 2766 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the supply of imported soybeans in China will be loose, and the soybean meal futures price lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - **Pig**: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 fell 1.57% to 11285 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is still large in the medium term, although the demand has increased [5]. - **Palm oil**: The palm oil futures continued to rise, with the main contract P2605 closing at 9238 yuan, a 1.61% increase. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 decreased by 9.41% compared to the same period last month [5]. 2.3. Metal Futures - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper (2603) closed at 102600 yuan/ton. The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US bond yields suppressed copper prices, while the low TC at the mine end and tight inventory provided support [5]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14655 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory increased by 61 lots, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed down 0.51% to 788 yuan. The supply from Australia and Brazil increased, the domestic arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [6]. - **Aluminum oxide**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2734 yuan/ton. The oversupply pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the cost reduction weakens the support [6]. - **Aluminum**: The al2603 contract closed at 24305 yuan/ton. The macro - sentiment cooled, the supply was stable, the social inventory increased, and the demand continued to shrink [6]. 2.4. Other Futures - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated and closed up 0.31% to 3279 yuan. The refinery supply is low, the inventory accumulates slightly, and the demand is weak [6]. - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 opened at 776.5, closed at 775.5, and decreased by 141 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [6]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3289 yuan/ton. The steel demand continued to shrink, and the steel price may adjust narrowly in the short term [6].