Report Summary 1. Overall Market Performance on January 6, 2026 - A-shares showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 13-day consecutive increase, reaching a new high since July 2015. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.50% to close at 4083.67, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.40% to 14022.55, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75% to 3319.29. The trading volume of the two markets reached 28326 billion yuan, an increase of 2651 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4790.69, a increase of 72.95 [2]. 2. Futures Market Conditions 2.1. Stock Index Futures - The A-share market's strong performance led to positive sentiment in the stock index futures market [1]. 2.2. Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted index showed narrow - range fluctuations, closing at 1654.7, a decrease of 11.8. Four consecutive rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the market may discuss a fifth - round cut. The profit of coking enterprises is mostly at the break - even point, and the expected loss area of coking enterprises may expand [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index was slightly adjusted, closing at 1096.2 yuan, a decrease of 0.1. After the New Year's Day, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal quickly recovered, while the domestic mine operating rate decreased as expected. The pit - mouth auction situation improved marginally, and steel and coking enterprises replenished stocks appropriately [3][4]. 2.3. Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar and the increase in spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract closed slightly higher on Tuesday. Due to the influence of funds, it continued to rise at night. Traders expect commodity index funds to buy a large amount of sugar during the annual re - balancing period starting on January 8 [4]. 2.4. Rubber Futures - Affected by the weather warning in Thailand's rubber - producing areas and the increase in global capital markets, the spot price in Southeast Asia increased. The Shanghai Rubber futures contract closed slightly higher on Tuesday and continued to rise at night. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate last week [4][5]. 2.5. Palm Oil Futures - On January 6, palm oil fluctuated in a narrow range, closing at 8500, a 0.14% increase from the previous day. From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 34.48% compared with the same period last month, while exports increased by 31.12% [5]. 2.6. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on January 6. Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high, and Argentina's soybean sowing progress is good, strengthening the expectation of a loose global soybean supply. Domestically, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2776 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills increased slightly last week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased [5]. 2.7. Live Pig Futures - The live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11810 yuan/ton on January 6, a 1.29% increase. The supply pressure at the beginning of January decreased, and the demand side was strong, but the long - term supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [5]. 2.8. Shanghai Copper Futures - The main contract of Shanghai Copper reached a new high, with both trading volume and open interest increasing. The macro - environment is favorable, and the supply at the mine end is tight, but there are risks of weak downstream demand and inventory accumulation [5][6]. 2.9. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15030 yuan/ton at night on Monday. Cotton spinning enterprises purchase cautiously, and the cotton inventory increased by 706 lots compared with the previous trading day [6]. 2.10. Iron Ore Futures - The iron ore 2605 main contract closed up 0.69% at 801 yuan on January 6. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 2.11. Asphalt Futures - The asphalt 2602 main contract closed down 0.35% at 3144 yuan on January 6. The supply of asphalt from local refineries is expected to decrease in January, and the raw material supply is uncertain, but the price will fluctuate due to weak downstream demand [6]. 2.12. Log Futures - The log 2603 main contract opened at 771, closed at 774, and increased its open interest by 25 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [6][7]. 2.13. Alumina Futures - The ao2605 contract closed at 2818 yuan/ton on January 6. The supply decreased due to the maintenance of a roasting furnace in Guizhou, and the demand from Inner Mongolia's electrolytic aluminum enterprises was limited. The market trading was dull [7]. 2.14. Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The al2602 contract closed at 24335 yuan/ton on January 6. The macro - environment is favorable, but the downstream demand is weakening [7]. 2.15. Steel Futures - The rb2605 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3263 yuan/ton on January 6. The iron ore inventory at Australian and Brazilian ports increased, and some steel mills are expected to resume production in January. The steel market supply - demand pressure may increase, and the steel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview on January 5, 2026 - A-shares had a good start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 12 - day consecutive rise and reclaiming the 4000 - point mark. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38% to close at 4023.42, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24% to close at 13828.63, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.85% to close at 3294.55. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2567.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 501.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] 2. Index Performance - The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4717.75, a环比 increase of 87.81 [2] 3. Commodity Futures 3.1 Coke and Coking Coal - On January 5, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1647.6, a环比 decrease of 49.4. The coking coal weighted index trended weakly in a volatile manner, closing at 1080.0 yuan, a环比 decrease of 33.3. The fourth round of price cuts by steel mills for coke has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. The supply side of coke shows increased production by coke enterprises and inventory accumulation, while the demand side sees rising blast furnace operation and increased daily pig iron output. For coking coal, the spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1235 yuan/ton on the futures market. The capacity utilization rate of mines and coal washing plants has decreased, while Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, leading to clean coal inventory accumulation. Steel and coke production loads have risen, but coke enterprises remain in a loss - making state [2][3][4] 3.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the decline in US sugar prices and the reduction in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward in the morning session, then rebounded slightly and closed slightly higher due to the boost from the strong stock market. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. It is expected that Thailand's 2025/26 annual sugar cane output will be 93 million tons, with an estimated range between 78 million and 108 million tons [4] 3.3 Rubber - As the peak rubber - producing season in Southeast Asia enters the second half, the pressure of spot supply will gradually ease. Coupled with the political turmoil in Venezuela affecting Southeast Asian spot quotes, which trended higher, the Shanghai Rubber futures contract oscillated upward on Monday. At night, it oscillated slightly higher. From January to November 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 2.419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [4] 3.4 Soybeans and Soybean Meal - For the week ending December 25, US soybean export sales for the current market year increased by 19% to 1.7777 million tons, with net sales to the Chinese mainland reaching 396,400 tons. Brazil has basically completed soybean sowing, and early - maturing soybeans are about to enter the harvest season. The current weather conditions in Brazil's soybean - producing areas are favorable, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. Most analysis institutions estimate Brazil's soybean output to be over 177 million tons, putting pressure on US soybean exports. As of December 30, Argentina's soybean sowing rate was 82%, and the sown soybeans are growing well. On January 5, the domestic soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2754 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Currently, domestic soybean port and oil mill inventories are at relatively high levels, and oil mill operating rates remain high, ensuring stable soybean meal output. However, the estimated soybean arrival volume in January 2026 is only 5 million tons, a significant reduction from the previous period, which may gradually ease the supply - side pressure [5] 3.5 Live Pigs - On January 5, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11,660 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. On the supply side, large - scale pig farms have completed their annual plans and are slowing down in January, while small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a temporary shortage of medium and large - sized pigs. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausages are booming, and terminal consumption is strong, effectively supporting pig prices. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of the live pig market has improved marginally, boosting prices to fluctuate strongly. However, in the long - term, the supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [5] 3.6 Palm Oil - On January 5, after the New Year's opening, domestic palm oil futures declined due to the weak performance of the overseas oil market during the holiday, erasing the pre - holiday gains. The P2605 contract closed with a negative K - line, with a high of 8600, a low of 8414, and a close of 8488, down 1.12% from the previous day. As of January 2, 2026 (Week 1), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7400 tons (1.01%) from the previous week and an increase of 225,000 tons (44.85%) from the same period last year [5] 3.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper contract opened at 99,450, reached a high of 101,380, a low of 99,150, and settled at 100,420, up 3110 from the previous settlement. The trading volume was 1.51 million lots, and the open interest was 2.163 million lots. Macroeconomic factors include the Fed's easing expectations and mild domestic stimulus, creating a positive sentiment. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the US tariffs, hoarding, and production - cut expectations have strengthened the narrative of supply shortage. The rise in LME copper prices has boosted the domestic market [5] 3.8 Cotton - On Monday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton. Cotton textile enterprises are cautious in purchasing, buying as they need. Cotton inventory increased by 406 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] 3.9 Iron Ore - On January 5, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed up 0.95% at 797 yuan. Currently, global iron ore shipments are at a high level. Although the arrival volume has decreased, port inventories continue to accumulate. As steel mills' profitability improves and the end - of - year blast furnace maintenance nears completion, pig iron output is expected to stabilize and rise. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [5] 3.10 Asphalt - On January 5, the asphalt 2602 main contract closed up 3.95% at 3133 yuan. The supply of asphalt from local refineries is expected to decrease in January. Coupled with the intensifying geopolitical conflicts in South America, which have increased the uncertainty of raw material supply, the tightening supply and rising costs support asphalt prices. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [6] 3.11 Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, reached a low of 772, a high of 783.5, and closed at 772.5, with an increase of 29 lots in open interest. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 740 yuan/cubic meter and 730 yuan/cubic meter respectively. There are no major contradictions in the supply - demand relationship. Future price trends will depend on spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - economic expectations [6] 3.12 Steel - On January 5, rb2605 closed at 3104 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3248 yuan/ton. As some steel mills' blast furnaces resume production and pig iron output increases, iron ore prices have been fluctuating at high levels recently. The coking coal market continues to weaken, suppressing coke prices. In the off - season, the supply - demand balance in the steel market continues, and raw material prices show different trends. The market sentiment is mainly wait - and - see, and steel prices may adjust slightly [6] 3.13 Alumina - On January 5, ao2605 closed at 2770 yuan/ton. The progress of production resumption and new capacity launch by domestic alumina enterprises has accelerated, and the expectation of oversupply continues to strengthen, putting pressure on alumina prices. On the demand side, the high operating rate of electrolytic aluminum supports rigid demand, but the purchasing pace has slowed down. Downstream customers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs, and although spot quotes are firm, trading volume is low. Inventory continues to increase due to oversupply [6] 3.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 5, al2602 closed at 23,645 yuan/ton. The positive macro - economic sentiment has led funds to flow into non - ferrous metals, resulting in a general rise in the non - ferrous metals market. Aluminum has temporarily deviated from its industrial product attributes, and its resource circulation attributes have increased, weakening the pressure of seasonal demand and inventory accumulation. Therefore, aluminum prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, production is normal, and social inventories have accumulated. On the demand side, the pressure continues to increase. The purchasing and sales sides have shrunk, with more purchases by traders but less by downstream and terminal customers. Large - scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain level of demand, with moderate demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials sectors, while the consumption pressure in other sectors continues to increase [6]

国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 31 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指 11 连阳收官。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.09%， 收报 3968.84 点；深证成指跌 0.58%，收报 13525.02 点；创业板指跌 1.23%，收报 3203.17 点。沪深两市成交额 20659 亿，较昨日缩量 958 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 31 日回调整理。收盘 4629.94，环比下跌 21.34。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 31 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1691.8，环比下跌 18.5。 12 月 31 日焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1112.5 元，环比上涨 8.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货三轮提降落地后，焦企出现小幅亏损，叠加前期环保检查影响，钢联数据显示上周样本焦企 产能利用率下降，焦炭日均产量下滑。需求，钢联数据显示钢厂铁水产量环比继续下降，但周度降幅收窄。 焦煤：临近年末，因完成生产任务减产煤矿数量增加，高频数据显示矿方开工率持续下降，国内煤炭供应环 比 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 30, 2025 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index almost closed flat with a "ten - day consecutive gain", closing at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **CSI 300 Index**: It fluctuated and consolidated on December 30, closing at 4651.28, a环比 increase of 11.91 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: The coke weighted index had a narrow - range shock, with a closing price of 1710.2, a环比 increase of 9.7; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1113.9 yuan, a环比 increase of 14.2 [2][3]. 2. Commodity Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Port coke spot market prices declined. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Tangshan, and Shijiazhuang regions initiated the fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on January 1, 2026. Coke production was relatively stable, and steel mills still purchased on - demand [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of main coking raw coal in Linfen, Shanxi increased by 25 yuan to 610 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 15 yuan to 955 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 3 clean coal increased by 5 yuan to 1050 yuan/ton. Some coal mines began to control production near the year - end, and the market was in a weak and volatile state [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar had a narrow - range shock and a small gain on Monday. Affected by the holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar futures had an oscillatory trend and a small increase on Tuesday. The 2026 January domestic sugar sales quota in India decreased by 500,000 tons compared to 2025, and Indonesia planned to import about 3.1 million tons of sugar in 2026 [4]. Rubber - Affected by the holiday effect, Shanghai rubber futures had an oscillatory trend and a small decline on Tuesday, and a narrow - range shock and a small decline at night [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures slightly declined on December 30. Brazil's good rainfall was conducive to soybean growth, and multiple institutions raised or maintained their production forecasts. Domestically, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.14% increase. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the inventory increased by 7.72% week - on - week [5]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11790 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.64% increase. In the short term, the supply pressure was weakened, and the demand was strong, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure was still not fundamentally alleviated [5]. Palm Oil - On December 30, palm oil rebounded in the range. The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures prices rose, and the market sentiment was boosted by the strong performance of Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil and the increasing demand [5]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper (main contract 2602) had a high - level correction, with a 2.36% decline in price. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The inventory increased, and the decline was mainly due to profit - taking and cautious downstream purchases [5]. Cotton - The main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14570 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday. Cotton - spinning enterprises purchased on - demand, and the inventory increased by 127 lots [5]. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 778, with a closing price of 776 and an increase of 21 lots in open interest. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship was relatively stable [6]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined on December 30, with a 0.44% decline. The global iron ore shipment increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron ore price was in an oscillatory state in the short term [6]. Asphalt - The main asphalt contract 2602 oscillated and rose on December 30, with a 1.47% increase. The capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory accumulated, the shipment volume increased, and the price oscillated in the short term [6]. Steel - On December 30, rb2605 was reported at 3134 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3282 yuan/ton. The macro - policy was expected to be "double - loose", which boosted the market sentiment. However, the steel market supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the price might oscillate in a narrow range in the short term [6]. Alumina - On December 30, ao2605 was reported at 2751 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina ore supply was stable, the import supply was expected to increase, the demand was limited, and the market was in a surplus state [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 30, al2602 was reported at 22565 yuan/ton. The macro - sentiment release ended, and the aluminum market declined. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulated, and the demand pressure increased [6].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 29, 2025, A - share major indices showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a nine - day consecutive gain. Different futures varieties had diverse market trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3965.28, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49% to 13537.10, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.66% to 3222.61. The trading volume of the two markets was 2139.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4639.37, a decrease of 17.87 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On December 29, the weighted coke index was in a correction phase, closing at 1674.6, a decrease of 21.6. The weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1080.3 yuan, a decrease of 11.6. Coke has had 3 rounds of price cuts with further cuts expected. Domestic coking coal supply is at a seasonal low, while Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port has high - level customs clearance and accumulating inventory. As of October, China's imported coking coal in 2025 reached 98.869 million tons, a 4.8% year - on - year decrease, and the export of coke was 6.2189 million tons, a 14.05% year - on - year decrease [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the adjustment of US sugar on Friday and the reduction of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fell on Monday. Indonesia aims to increase its sugar production to 3 million tons in 2026 [4] Rubber - Due to short - term large gains and holiday effects, Shanghai rubber adjusted and closed slightly lower on Monday. The inventory increase in Qingdao affected its night - session performance. In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1%. As of December 28, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 524,800 tons, a 1.87% increase [4][5] Palm Oil - On December 29, palm oil rebounded and then fell back. The P2605 contract closed with a negative line. As of December 26, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 734,100 tons, a 4.87% week - on - week increase and a 38.93% year - on - year increase [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on December 29. US soybean export sales increased, but the high - yield pressure of South American soybeans restricted the rebound. Domestically, the M2605 contract closed at 2774 yuan/ton on December 29, a 0.57% decrease. Although there are concerns about import supply, the current supply - demand of soybean meal remains loose [5] Live Pigs - On December 29, the LH2603 contract closed at 11,715 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The supply pressure has been alleviated in the short term, and demand is good, but the medium - to - long - term supply pressure still exists [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2602 contract opened high, reached a new high, and then fell. The inventory showed an obvious accumulation trend. The morning rise was due to factors such as the record - high of London copper, while the afternoon decline was due to profit - taking and the weakening of the non - ferrous sector [5] Iron Ore - On December 29, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 2.58%, closing at 796.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased, the port inventory increased, and the terminal demand was low in the off - season. However, the iron - water output increased slightly, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On December 29, the Asphalt 2602 contract rose 0.23%, closing at 3008 yuan. The capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory accumulated, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Logs - The Log 2603 contract opened at 778, with a daily reduction of 5 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and future price trends depend on factors such as the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] Cotton - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 14,445 yuan/ton on the night of December 29. Cotton - spinning enterprises replenished inventory as needed, and the inventory increased by 232 lots compared with the previous trading day. The futures prices of cotton and cotton yarn rose from December 22 - 26, and relevant government policies were issued to guide industrial transfer [6] Steel - On December 29, the rb2605 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3287 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills increased slightly, and the iron - water output stabilized. The cost still supports the steel price, but the demand is weak. The short - term steel price is expected to be strong, while the medium - term price may fluctuate within a range [6] Alumina - On December 29, the ao2605 contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton. The supply of alumina is in an over - supply situation with increasing inventory, and the demand is weak. The spot price is on a downward trend [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On December 29, the al2602 contract closed at 22,570 yuan/ton. Positive macro - policies support the long - term demand for aluminum, but the current demand is restricted by high prices and environmental protection. The short - term price will be in a volatile trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the A - share market showed a general upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight - day consecutive increase. The trading volume of the two markets expanded, indicating active market trading [1]. - Different futures varieties have distinct price trends and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some varieties are affected by supply and demand, international market conditions, and policy expectations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 26, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to close at 3963.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54% to close at 13603.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.14% to close at 3243.88 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated on December 26, closing at 4657.24, a month - on - month increase of 14.7 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 26, the coke weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1707.9, a month - on - month decrease of 15.6. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1104.8 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 11.0 [2][3]. - For coke, port spot prices were stable, supply was increasing as coking plants actively operated, but demand was weak as steel mills had low profitability and only made necessary purchases. For coking coal, prices in some regions changed, supply was tightened due to a coal mine accident, and demand was weak as steel mills had a low acceptance of high - priced coal [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the holiday, the US sugar market had light trading volume and closed slightly lower on December 26. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract continued to fluctuate and consolidate at night. As of November 30, the sugarcane crushing volume in northern and northeastern Brazil was 32.5 million tons, a 9.4% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a narrow - range fluctuation and closed slightly higher at night on December 26. As of December 26, the inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [5]. Palm Oil - Due to the continuous strengthening of crude oil, palm oil became a more attractive raw material for biodiesel. On December 26, palm oil futures in Malaysia and the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the weekly line showed the first positive line in three weeks. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 25 increased by 41.25% compared to the same period last month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the sowing of soybeans in Brazil was almost completed, and the sowing progress in Argentina reached 70%, leading to a high yield expectation that limited the rebound of US soybean prices. However, China's purchase plan provided support. Domestically, on December 26, the M2605 main contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The supply - demand relationship of soybean meal remained loose, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On December 26, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11645 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The short - term supply pressure was relieved as group pig enterprises completed their annual targets and farmers were reluctant to sell. The demand was strong due to curing and New Year's Day stocking. The short - term price was expected to be strong, but the long - term supply pressure still existed [5]. Shanghai Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut pushed up the copper price. The demand in traditional fields was weak, but the new energy and AI industries provided support. However, there was a risk of a high - level correction [5]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 778, with a low of 771, a high of 781, and closed at 776.5 on December 26, with a reduction of 139 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [5][6]. Iron Ore - On December 26, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up 0.71% at 783 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals decreased, port inventories increased, and terminal demand was low in the off - season. However, steel mill profitability improved, and iron water output increased slightly. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - On December 26, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down 0.03% at 2995 yuan. The capacity utilization rate increased, inventories accumulated, and shipments increased. The downstream demand was stable, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate [7]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14475 yuan/ton at night on December 26. Cotton spinning enterprises replenished stocks as needed, and the inventory increased by 227 lots. The prices of different types of cotton from different regions were provided [7][8][9][10]. Steel - The domestic steel market was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The core contradiction was between short - term policy - driven sentiment and long - term fundamental pressure. Steel production was affected by environmental protection and low profitability, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the macro - expectations for next year [10]. Alumina - The impact of seasonal factors on imported ore from Guinea weakened, and port inventories increased slightly. Supply was expected to decrease under policy guidance as the industry had high - level production and excess inventory. Demand was stable as domestic electrolytic aluminum production was steady [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The low price of alumina ensured good smelting profits for aluminum plants, and the overall production was active. Supply increased slightly as some electrolytic aluminum projects were put into operation. Demand weakened in the off - season, and inventories accumulated slightly. Affected by positive macro - expectations, the aluminum price remained high and fluctuated [11].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 25, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47% at 3959.62, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33% at 13531.41, and the ChiNext Index up 0.30% at 3239.34. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1924.5 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4642.54, up 8.48 [2] - Futures Contracts: - Coke weighted index: Closed at 1722.2, up 1.2 [2] - Coking coal weighted index: Closed at 1113.0 yuan, up 0.7 [3] - Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract: Consolidated and adjusted during the day and continued to fluctuate at night [4] - Shanghai Rubber: Rose during the day and closed slightly higher at night [4] - Palm Oil P2605: Rose 0.64% to close at 8542 [5] - Soybean Meal M2605: Rose 1.17% to close at 2760 yuan/ton [5] - Live Hogs LH2603: Fell 0.17% to close at 11460 yuan/ton [5] - Shanghai Copper 2602: Opened at 95910 yuan/ton, reached a low of 94180 yuan/ton, and closed at 96210 yuan/ton [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton: Closed at 14425 yuan/ton at night [6] - Iron Ore 2605: Rose 0.58% to close at 778.5 yuan [6] - Asphalt 2605: Rose 0.17% to close at 2995 yuan [6] - Logs 2603: Opened at 776, closed at 778, with an increase of 93 lots in positions [6] - Steel rb2605: Closed at 3127 yuan/ton, hc2605 closed at 3280 yuan/ton [7] - Alumina ao2605: Closed at 2646 yuan/ton [7] - Shanghai Aluminum al2602: Closed at 22275 yuan/ton [7] 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's quasi-primary metallurgical coke at 1460 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Supply increased steadily as coking enterprises maintained production levels due to profit margins from falling coking coal prices. Demand was weak as some steel mills entered maintenance, reducing raw material purchases [4] - **Coking Coal**: Prices in some areas increased, such as in Shanxi and at Ganqimaodu Port. Supply was affected as some mines limited production after completing annual tasks, and the intermediate trading环节 was cautious [4] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decrease, with the central-southern region's output at 38 million tons, a 5% drop from the previous season. The overall Brazilian output is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons [4] Natural Rubber - Main domestic producing areas entered the off-season, reducing supply pressure. Global production and consumption in November 2025 were expected to decline by 2.6% and 1.4% respectively, to 1.474 million tons and 1.248 million tons [4][5] Palm Oil - Due to the Christmas holiday, major global exchanges were closed, but DCE palm oil continued its rebound. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, South American soybean production prospects were optimistic, limiting US soybean prices. However, China's procurement plan provided support. Domestically, the supply was loose, and inventory pressure was deferred to the far months [5] Live Hogs - Supply was high as farmers increased slaughter. Demand improved marginally as the peak of curing in the southwest approached, which supported prices to some extent [5] Copper - Supply was potentially disrupted by labor negotiations at a Chilean mine. Demand was weak as high prices discouraged downstream enterprises, except for some刚需 in the new energy and power grid sectors. Macro factors provided support, but market sentiment was cautious [5] Iron Ore - Global shipments and arrivals decreased, while port inventories increased. Terminal demand was low in the off-season, and iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate [6] Asphalt - The refinery's production plan for January decreased, and inventories increased. Downstream demand was weak, and prices were expected to remain volatile [6] Logs - Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. The supply-demand relationship was stable, and future price trends depend on spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6][7] Steel - Steel mills' profitability improved slightly, but production remained low. Demand was weak but resilient, and cost provided support. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [7] Alumina - The market supply-demand pattern was loose, and spot prices were weak. Futures rebounded technically due to short-term capital and macro factors. Prices were expected to remain low and volatile [7] Aluminum - Macro factors were positive, but domestic fundamentals were weak. Aluminum prices were expected to remain high and volatile [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the A - share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive daily gains. Different futures varieties had diverse price movements and market conditions, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 24, the A - share market's three major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.53% to close at 3940.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% to 13486.42 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 0.77% to 3229.58 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1880.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 19.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4634.06, a rise of 13.32 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On December 24, the weighted index of coke showed a narrow - range shock, closing at 1727.2, up 5.6. The mainstream steel mills' purchase prices were generally reduced by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the third round of price cuts was implemented. The coke enterprises' production declined, and the total coke inventory decreased. The blast furnace operation and molten iron output continued to decline, with overall weak driving force [2][4]. - Coking coal: On December 24, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated within a range, closing at 1119.7 yuan, up 7.6. The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1100 yuan/ton on the futures market. The central government emphasized "dual - carbon" and energy - power construction, which was beneficial for the long - term transformation of the industry. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the coking coal inventory was increasing. The load of steel and coking enterprises decreased, and the price cut of coke was implemented, leading to a narrowing of coke enterprises' profits and rigid - demand procurement [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering, the US sugar continued to rise on December 23. Driven by the rise of US sugar and the increase of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose sharply on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. In November 2025, China's refined sugar production was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to November 2025, the production was 12.633 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. In November 2025, the dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [4]. Rubber - Supported by the firm crude oil price and the increase of Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber rose significantly on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. At the end of November 2025, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.79 million, an increase of 380,000 compared with the previous month and 590,000 compared with November 2024. Based on the inventory at the end of November 2025 and the estimated sales in the next three months, the current inventory can support 61 days of sales, compared with 48 days in November 2024, indicating relatively high inventory pressure in November 2025 [4][6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 24, due to position adjustment before the Christmas holiday, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly, but the market was still cautious about the US soybean export sales speed. Brazil's soybean sowing was basically completed, the weather in South America continued to improve, and sporadic harvesting had begun in northern Brazil, with an optimistic production outlook, which restricted the rise of US soybean prices. Domestically, on December 24, the M2605 main contract closed at 2728 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. Recently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China slowed down, but oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons week - on - week and 554,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and oil mills had little motivation to support prices. It is recommended to focus on extreme weather changes in South America and the arrival volume of soybeans [6]. Live Pigs - On December 24, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11,480 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase from the previous trading day. Currently, the enthusiasm for live pig slaughter in the breeding end is generally high. As the effective time for pre - holiday slaughter decreases, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises has significantly accelerated. The slaughter intention of individual farmers and secondary fattening groups has also increased, jointly pushing the market's live pig circulation to a high level. The demand side shows signs of marginal improvement. As the peak of curing and stocking in Southwest China approaches, the sales of fresh pork have accelerated significantly, and the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The phased strengthening of consumption demand has a certain boosting effect on live pig prices and alleviates the downward pressure from the supply side to some extent. It is recommended to focus on the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6]. Palm Oil - On December 24, palm oil continued to rebound but was blocked when rising. The P2605 contract closed with a doji star with an upper shadow, with the highest price of 8548, the lowest price of 8482, and the closing price of 8488, a 0.02% increase from the previous day. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%, with a 11.66% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.12% decrease in Sabah, a 0.75% decrease in Sarawak, and a 1.73% decrease in Borneo [6]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose strongly, closing at 96,100 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 95,260 yuan. The highest price during the day reached 96,750 yuan/ton, with large intraday fluctuations and active market trading. The final trading volume was 307,141 lots, and the open interest was 258,277 lots. The copper futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2679 tons to 52,222 tons, and the inventories on LME and COMEX also increased, showing an accumulation trend in global inventory. SMM predicts that China's electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee is at a historical low, and some smelters are in a state of production reduction. Globally, copper mines in many places have frequent accidents, with a 4.7% year - on - year decline in production in major producing areas such as Chile and Indonesia. The copper concentrate processing fee has dropped to a historical low of - 40 US dollars/ton, and smelters at home and abroad have reduced production, which supports the upward movement of copper prices. The demand from traditional home appliances and construction is weak, but the demand from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI computing centers is remarkable, becoming the core growth engine of copper demand. At the same time, China's power grid investment has stable growth, supporting copper consumption. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to heat up, the US dollar index is under pressure to decline, reducing the holding cost of non - ferrous metals. The US has included copper in the list of critical minerals, and the expectation of additional import tariffs has led to an imbalance in the global copper inventory distribution, further boosting the copper price [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of December 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,175 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil price pushed up the cost of polyester, and the US dollar index weakened. Cotton textile enterprises replenished inventory as needed. The cotton inventory increased by 282 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. Iron Ore - On December 24, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.26% and a closing price of 779.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased compared with the previous period, the arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season was still at a low level, and the molten iron output continued to decline. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On December 24, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.27% and a closing price of 2996 yuan. The planned production volume of asphalt from local refineries in January decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand in the off - season continued to shrink, and the refineries' sales were blocked. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillatory operation [7]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 770 on December 24, with the lowest price of 769.5, the highest price of 777.5, and closed at 776, with a reduction of 112 lots in open interest. The spot - market support should be noted. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. In the future, attention should be paid to the spot - market price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [7][8]. Steel - On December 24, rb2605 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3285 yuan/ton. The weak demand pattern in the steel market in the off - season is difficult to change, the steel mills' production continues to run at a low level, the supply and demand are generally in a weak - balance pattern, the inventory pressure is not large, and the steel mills' ex - factory prices are mainly stable. At the same time, the prices of raw fuels fluctuate within a narrow range, the coking coal market shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing, and the iron ore price has a slight decline from a high level. The cost still supports the steel price. In the short term, the steel price may continue to oscillate within a narrow range [8]. Alumina - On December 24, ao2601 closed at 2554 yuan/ton. In the short term, enterprises have little willingness to reduce production. With the inflow of imported goods and the supplement of delivery goods, the short - term supply will remain sufficient, and the oversupply situation will continue, putting pressure on the alumina price. For further production - reduction situations, the market dynamics in 2026 after the execution of long - term contracts need to be noted. On the demand side, the northwest electrolytic aluminum plants had concentrated restocking before, resulting in increased unloading pressure. With high inventory, their willingness to purchase alumina on the spot market has decreased significantly; the supply in the southern region is stable, and only individual aluminum plants purchase at low prices. In the spot market, holders mainly focus on selling, and downstream enterprises maintain the rhythm of purchasing as needed. Most buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has increased, driving the whole - day trading [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 24, al2602 closed at 22,330 yuan/ton. In the macro - aspect, non - ferrous metals are still strongly driven by precious metals. Silver has continuously reached new highs, and copper and aluminum continue to be driven upward. The market is optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and the expectation of loose liquidity strongly supports precious metals and non - ferrous metals. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side operates stably. The downstream aluminum - water consumption capacity in some areas has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the production areas has accumulated significantly. The shipment of aluminum ingots has partially recovered, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The demand side shows a weakening trend. As the end of the year approaches, both the purchasing and sales sides have cooled down, and there is a certain degree of production reduction and shutdown in Central China. Large - scale downstream processing factories maintain a certain demand. The demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials fields is relatively stable, while the consumption in the rod and bar fields shows some pressure [9].

1. Market Performance on December 23, 2025 Stock Market - A - share three major indices closed in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27% to 13368.99 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.41% to 3205.01 points. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1899.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 37.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4620.73, a环比 increase of 9.11 [2] Futures Market Energy and Chemicals - The coke weighted index was in narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1719.3, a环比 increase of 9.3 [2] - The coking coal weighted index was in range - bound consolidation, closing at 1113.7 yuan, a环比 increase of 25.1 [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher due to factors such as the rise of US sugar and short - covering. As of December 20, 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 7.8122 million tons, a decrease of 1.3675 million tons (14.9%) compared with the same period last year; sugar production was 639,300 tons, a decrease of 106,200 tons (14.25%) [4] - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on December 23 due to short - covering boosted by the rising crude oil price. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao area (bonded and general trade) was 5.152 million tons, a环比 increase of 163,000 tons (3.28%) [4] Agricultural Products - On the international market, CBOT soybean futures fell slightly on December 23. Brazil is expected to have a record - breaking harvest this year. AgRural expects Brazil's soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2741 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. China's soybean imports in November were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.32% [6] - The LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11,415 yuan/ton on December 23, up 0.62%. The supply of live pigs in the market is high, and the demand shows marginal improvement [6] - Palm oil continued to rise on December 23. The P2605 contract closed at 8486, up 0.86%. Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, and it plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year [6] Metals - The main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 94,030 yuan/ton, closed at 93,930 yuan/ton, with the highest at 94,290 yuan/ton and the lowest at 93,620 yuan/ton on December 23. The trading volume was 139,000 lots and the open interest was 241,000 lots [6] - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,135 yuan/ton on the night of December 23, and the cotton inventory increased by 13 lots compared with the previous day [6] - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 779, closed at 770, with a daily reduction of 87 lots on December 23. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7] - The 2605 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.26% at 778.5 yuan on December 23. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [7] - The 2602 main contract of asphalt closed up 0.27% at 2977 yuan on December 23. The asphalt production of local refineries in January decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [7] - On December 23, rb2605 of steel was reported at 3128 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3281 yuan/ton. The demand in the off - season shows certain resilience, and the steel price may fluctuate in a narrow range [7] - The ao2601 of alumina was reported at 2520 yuan/ton on December 23. The domestic alumina production capacity is high, the supply pressure exists, and the downstream demand increment is limited [7] - The al2602 of Shanghai aluminum was reported at 22,195 yuan/ton on December 23. The supply is stable, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is cooling [7] 2. Key Factors Affecting the Market Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the third round of price cuts has fully landed, the coking profit is average, the daily output has slightly decreased, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream procurement is mainly on - demand [4] - For coking coal, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. The output of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction transactions are okay, the terminal inventory has increased, and the total inventory has slightly increased [4] Other Commodities - For copper, the copper concentrate processing fee is low, the mine supply tension is expected to intensify, the smelting cost support is strong, the refined copper supply has slightly increased, the downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the new - energy copper foil demand is relatively strong [6] - For live pigs, the supply side is under pressure due to high - speed slaughter, and the demand side has a certain boost due to the approaching peak of curing in the southwest region [6] - For palm oil, Indonesia's biofuel policy and the test of the B50 standard have an impact on the market [6]

Group 1: Market Performance on December 22, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47% to 13332.73, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% to 3191.98. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1861.9 billion yuan, an increase of 136 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4611.62, a rise of 43.45 [2] - Coal futures: The coke weighted index maintained strength, closing at 1717.3, a rise of 24.4; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1098.1 yuan, a rise of 6.1 [2][3] - Other futures: The closing prices and changes of various futures on December 22 are as follows: Zheng sugar 2605 contract, palm oil P2605, Shanghai copper CU2602, cotton, iron ore 2605, asphalt 2605, log 2603, steel rb2605 and hc2605, alumina ao2601, and Shanghai aluminum al2602 [1][2][3][4][6][8] Group 2: Factors Affecting Futures Prices - Coke and coking coal: For coke, after the previous sharp price drop, downstream increased the procurement of cost-effective raw coal, and news such as "anti-involution" in China and Indonesia's export tax boosted market sentiment in the short term; for coking coal, the overall supply in the producing areas continued to shrink, and the high volume of Mongolian coal clearance and rising port inventory brought pressure to domestic coal [4] - Zheng sugar: Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar, the decline in imports in November, and the increase in spot quotes, short positions were closed, pushing the Zheng sugar 2605 contract to rise [4] - Rubber: Due to a large short-term decline, affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly lower on Monday; at night, supported by short covering, it fluctuated slightly higher [4] - Soybean meal: Internationally, factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the price of US soybeans; domestically, the supply of soybeans was abundant, and the supply pressure of soybean meal was significant [4][6] - Pig: The supply of live pigs remained high, while the demand showed marginal improvement, and the increase in consumption demand boosted pig prices to some extent [6] - Palm oil: Affected by the warming of the external crude oil and the overall oil market, palm oil rebounded rapidly from a low level; the production in Malaysia decreased, while exports increased [6] - Shanghai copper: The decline in copper ore processing fees, the expansion of smelting losses, and the weakening of the US dollar and rising interest rate cut expectations supported the price increase [6] - Iron ore: The supply increased while the demand decreased, and the price fluctuated in the short term [6] - Asphalt: Supply increased, inventory decreased slightly, demand in the off-season continued to shrink, and the price fluctuated [6] - Log: There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and subsequent attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices, import data, and inventory changes [8] - Steel: The supply - demand situation was weak, but due to cost support, the price might fluctuate upward [8] - Alumina: Although production decreased slightly due to maintenance, the overall supply was still in excess, and inventory accumulation put pressure on prices [8] - Shanghai aluminum: The production was stable, inventory continued to accumulate, and demand showed regional differences [8] Group 3: Future Focus - Soybean meal: Focus on extreme weather changes in South America and soybean arrivals [6] - Pig: Pay attention to the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6] - Iron ore: Follow the return of year - end funds, inventory changes, and macro - policy trends [6] - Log: Monitor spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [8]