Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On Thursday (July 17), China's A-share market saw all three major indices rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5394 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index strengthened in a volatile manner, closing at 4,034.49, up 27.29 points [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 17, the weighted index of coke showed strength, closing at 1,526.5, up 15.0 points. The weighted index of coking coal regained strength, closing at 935.1 yuan, up 16.5 yuan. In the coke market, the spot price at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. Mainstream steel mills accepted the first price increase proposed by coke enterprises, but coke enterprises were still operating at a loss, with cautious raw material procurement and squeezed production inventory. In the coking coal market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi, increased by 40 yuan to 1,300 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 yuan to 785 yuan/ton. Domestic coal mines were gradually resuming production, and the three major ports resumed customs clearance on July 16 after a 5 - day closure, but customs clearance was expected to remain low due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia until July 21 [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar futures closed slightly lower in a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract strengthened on Thursday with the support of funds and continued to rise slightly in the night session. ICRA predicted that the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India would see a sugar production of 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season's 29.6 million tons [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand affected rubber tapping, leading to a decrease in raw material supply and an increase in Southeast Asian spot prices. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise in the night session due to the increase in tire factory operating rates and speculation on weather conditions. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year, and in June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [3]. Soybean Meal - On July 17, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the net increase in US soybean export sales in the week ending July 10 was 271,900 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - growing areas reduced the risk of yield reduction, posing a resistance to price increases. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures were strong on July 17. The high arrival volume of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates led to large soybean meal production, but feed and breeding enterprises' purchases were limited, increasing the supply pressure in the spot market. However, the increase in US soybean prices and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums would support the price from the import cost side [4]. Live Pigs - On July 17, the main live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 14,060 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, leading to more active selling by farmers. The terminal market was in the off - season, with weak demand. The stable recovery of the sow inventory indicated medium - to - long - term supply pressure, and the pig price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - On July 17, palm oil futures maintained a high - level oscillation with a rising bottom and slightly hit a new high. The price closed at 8,796 yuan, up 0.85%. After the US agreed to reduce the tariff on Indonesian palm oil from 32% to 19% (lower than Malaysia's 25%), Indonesia was expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia was still negotiating with the US government to achieve a "win - win" situation [6]. Shanghai Copper - In June, the US PPI was lower than expected while the CPI rose, showing a divergence in inflation between the consumer and production sides. Uncertainties in the US external tariff policy and the President's attitude towards the Fed Chairman affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, the global copper mine supply shortage was difficult to ease in the short term, and the increasing demand from the new energy industry would support the copper price. However, the uncertainty of the US import tariff policy on copper and the increase in bonded - area copper inventory might put pressure on the price. In the short term, Shanghai copper was expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,320 yuan/ton. On July 18, the base - price quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 58 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 17, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 799.5, with the lowest price of 799.5, the highest price of 834, and closed at 833, with an increase of 9,956 lots in positions. It had the largest increase in three months with a significant increase in trading volume. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot prices of radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's log and sawn - timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year, and port shipments decreased. The supply - demand relationship was relatively balanced, but spot trading was weak [7][8][10]. Steel - On July 17, the rb2510 rebar futures contract closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,292 yuan/ton. This week, rebar production continued to decline, inventory slightly increased, and apparent demand significantly decreased. It was the traditional off - season for rebar consumption, with more seasonal maintenance in steel mills and some shifting production to other products. The terminal demand was weak due to low project funds, resulting in a weak market. Currently, the rebar market had weak supply and demand, with slightly increased but still low inventory, and the short - term futures price was expected to move in a narrow range [10]. Alumina - On July 17, the ao2509 alumina futures contract closed at 3,089 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina reached a historical high, and new capacity continued to be released, leading to a significant supply increase exceeding consumption demand. In the third quarter, new capacity would be put into production, and the existing output would reach a new high, with an expected supply surplus. Market inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The increase in warehouse receipts also indicated sufficient physical supply and weakened spot support [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 17, the al2509 Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,415 yuan/ton. Uncertainty about the Fed Chairman's position and the US tariff policy affected market sentiment, weakening the upward momentum of the aluminum price. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic main consumption areas was 492,000 tons, decreasing by 9,000 tons from Monday but increasing by 26,000 tons from the previous Thursday. In the short term, the aluminum price was expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [11].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 10720.81, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.22% to 2230.19. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1442 billion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 4007.20, down 11.86 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 16, the coke weighted index fluctuated, closing at 1502.6, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index also fluctuated, closing at 912.0 yuan, down 14.4. For coke, due to the rising price of coking coal, the number of loss - making coke enterprises increased, and the supply continued to shrink. A price increase was about to be implemented, and short - term coking profits were expected to recover. But with the strong rise of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still faced loss pressure and might raise prices again. The demand from downstream steel mills was supported, and the inventory structure improved. For coking coal, domestic supply increased as mines resumed production, the Mongolian port was about to resume customs clearance, and the arrival of Australian coal increased this week. The import profit of overseas coal was restored, and subsequent shipments might increase [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rebound of US sugar and weak spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, it continued to fluctuate narrowly. In India, the water level of 161 major reservoirs reached nearly 52% of the total capacity, higher than last year and the past ten - year average. The southwest monsoon was active, and the sown area of monsoon crops increased by 11% compared with last year [2]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological department warned of heavy rain from July 19 - 21, which might slow down rubber tapping and reduce supply, supporting the futures price. However, weak demand prospects dampened market sentiment. Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025. Affected by these factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday and continued to rise slightly at night. In June, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from 2024. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from last year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 16, CBOT soybean futures prices rose due to hopes of increased US export demand. The good growth of US soybeans reduced the risk of production cuts. Brazil's soybean exports in July were expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 16, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2977 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The arrival of imported soybeans and the oil mill operating rate remained high, but feed enterprises' purchases were limited, and the supply pressure at the spot end increased. There was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September, which supported the far - month contract [5]. Live Pigs - On July 15, live pigs trended weakly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14010 yuan/ton, down 1.68%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, and farmers were more willing to sell. The terminal market was in the off - season, and demand was weak. The inventory and performance of sows were recovering, and there was still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [5]. Palm Oil - On July 16, palm oil maintained a high - level volatile trend, with increased amplitude. It closed at 8722, up 0.16%. From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected US CPI data led to the rebound of the US dollar index, which restricted the rebound of non - ferrous metals. However, the inventory accumulation in non - US regions was limited, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference in China weakened the downward momentum of Shanghai copper. It was expected to fluctuate between 77500 - 78500 yuan/ton. If it could hold the support at around 78000 yuan, it might continue to be slightly stronger; otherwise, it might test the 77500 - yuan support [6]. Logs - On Wednesday, the 2509 log contract opened at 788, with a low of 787, a high of 797, and closed at 797, with an increase of 2549 lots in positions. Attention was paid to the support at 785 - 790 and the resistance at 800. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January - June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. Port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [6][7]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton. On July 17, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 73 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Steel - On July 16, rb2510 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3253 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affected downstream construction, weakening steel demand and increasing supply - demand pressure. However, the cost supported steel prices. In the short term, steel prices were expected to adjust narrowly [7][8]. Alumina - On July 16, ao2509 closed at 3111 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price was stable, the trading activity was average, holders were reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises made rigid purchases. The trading volume was limited [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 16, al2508 closed at 20435 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. With the macro - tariff concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the supply side changed little, demand weakened, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased over the weekend, so it was under pressure at high levels [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market on July 15, 2025 showed mixed trends among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.73%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1612.1 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The short - term supply - demand relationship of coking coal and coke is good. Although the iron water is falling, the demand support remains as the total amount is still high, and the inventories of coking plants and mines are significantly decreasing [5]. - For Zheng sugar, influenced by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on July 15 [5]. - The domestic soybean meal market has increasing supply pressure at the spot end, but there is support for the far - month contract due to the large order gap of imported soybeans after September [8]. - The terminal market for live pigs is in the off - season, with insufficient downstream demand. The medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists, and the futures market lacks upward momentum [8]. - Palm oil maintained a high - level oscillating trend on July 15, reaching a recent high and then quickly falling back [9]. - The price of Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate. It may fluctuate in the range of 77800 - 78500 yuan/ton. Standing above 78000 yuan/ton may lead to further upward exploration, while falling below 77800 yuan/ton may trigger a short - term correction [9]. - The domestic construction steel market is in the off - season, and the short - term supply - demand weak pattern is difficult to change, with prices likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. - The price of alumina is supported to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the medium - term supply is loose, and the upward space is limited [12]. - The spot market for Shanghai aluminum has a light trading volume, and the overall trading momentum is insufficient [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3505 points, down 0.42%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10744.56 points, up 0.56%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2235.05 points, up 1.73%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1612.1 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4019.06, up 1.4 [1][2]. Coking Coal and Coke - On July 15, the coking coal weighted index closed at 927.9 yuan, up 2.4, and the coke weighted index closed at 1522.3, down 10.1. The fundamentals are strong, with significant inventory reduction. The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing, while the demand is weakening as the iron water falls. The inventories of coking plants and mines are actively decreasing by 7.22% and 8.83% respectively [3][4][5]. Zheng Sugar - Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on July 15. In the 2024/2025 sugar - cane crushing season, the sugar - cane planting area in Yunnan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, the first stop of the decline in 10 years [5]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber rose first and then fell on July 15, closing slightly higher. It was affected by rainfall in the Thai production area in the morning and then fell due to the expectation of weak future consumption. At night, it oscillated slightly lower due to short - selling pressure. Vietnam's rubber exports in June increased by 47.8% month - on - month, and from January to June, the exports decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 15, the CBOT soybean futures price closed slightly lower. The weather conditions in the US Midwest are favorable, and the US soybean good - quality rate is higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 15, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2978 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The supply pressure at the spot end is increasing, but there is support for the far - month contract [6][8]. Live Pigs - On July 15, the main live - pig contract LH2509 closed at 14250 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The terminal market is in the off - season, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists, with the futures market lacking upward momentum [8]. Palm Oil - On July 15, palm oil maintained a high - level oscillating trend, reaching a recent high and then quickly falling back. The closing price was 8708 yuan, down 0.46% from the previous trading day [9]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. It may continue to oscillate in the range of 77800 - 78500 yuan/ton. Standing above 78000 yuan/ton may lead to further upward exploration, while falling below 77800 yuan/ton may trigger a short - term correction [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 15, the main Zheng cotton contract closed at 13945 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 21 lots compared with the previous day [10]. Logs - On July 15, the 2509 log contract opened at 786.5, with the lowest at 785.5, the highest at 793.5, and closed at 790, with a reduction of 823 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's imports of logs and sawn timber decreased by 12% year - on - year [10]. Steel - On July 15, the rb2510 steel contract closed at 3114 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3259 yuan/ton. The actual spot transaction price followed the decline, and the short - term supply - demand weak pattern is difficult to change, with prices likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. Alumina - On July 15, the ao2509 alumina contract closed at 3165 yuan/ton. The price is supported to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the medium - term supply is loose, and the upward space is limited [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 15, the al2508 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20430 yuan/ton. The spot market has a light trading volume, and the overall trading momentum is insufficient [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the black chain has switched to a dual - wheel drive of industrial bullish factors and valuation repair, and the prices of coke and coking coal are in a low - valuation repair market [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was affected by multiple factors and showed different trends during the day and at night [3] - The price of Shanghai rubber was affected by inventory and weather, showing a downward trend during the day and an upward trend at night [3] - The price of palm oil continued to rise on July 14 but did not break through the previous high [4][5] - The price of soybean meal in the international market fell slightly, while the domestic market rose, and the supply pressure on the spot side increased [6] - The price of live pigs fell, with short - term supply pressure and lack of upward driving force [7] - The price of Shanghai copper was under pressure, and it was difficult to judge whether it had ended the correction [7] - The price of cotton decreased in inventory, and the base - price quotation was at a minimum of 430 yuan/ton [7] - The price of logs was concerned about the 790 - 800 pressure range, and the spot price was stable [8] - The price of steel was expected to be strong in the short term due to macro - favorable news [8] - The price of alumina was supported in the short term but faced supply - surplus pressure in the long term [9] - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell, with slow inventory reduction and weak spot recovery [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 14, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10684.52 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45% to 2197.07 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1458.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.4 billion yuan from last Friday. The CSI 300 index closed at 4017.67, a rise of 2.86 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On July 14, the coke weighted index closed at 1532.2, a rise of 18.9; the coking coal weighted index closed at 933.6 yuan, a rise of 14.5. The demand support for both decreased slightly, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, US sugar rose on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly during the day on July 14 but fell at night due to factors such as the possible shift of India's ethanol quota to grains [3] Shanghai Rubber - Affected by the increase in rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the continuous increase in the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port, the Shanghai rubber fell on July 14 but rose at night due to concerns about Thailand's weather. As of July 13, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Palm Oil - On July 14, palm oil continued to rise but did not break through the previous high. From July 1 - 10 in Malaysia, the palm oil yield increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. In June in India, the import volume of palm oil increased by 60%, and the total import volume of vegetable oil increased by 30.6% [4][5] Soybean Meal - In the international market, the price of CBOT soybeans fell slightly on July 14. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal M2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2992 yuan/ton. In June, China's soybean imports decreased by 11.9% compared with May. The supply pressure on the spot side increased, but there was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September [6] Live Pigs - On July 14, the main live pig LH2509 contract fell 0.42% to 14285 yuan/ton. The terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the short term [7] Shanghai Copper - Affected by US tariff policies, Shanghai copper was under pressure. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee showed a stable trend, but the mine - end tension continued [7] Cotton - On the night of July 14, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13805 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was at a minimum of 430 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 43 lots [7] Logs - On July 14, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 787.5, closed at 788, and increased positions by 470 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [8] Steel - On July 14, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to macro - favorable news, the price was expected to be strong in the short term [8] Alumina - On July 14, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3145 yuan/ton. It was supported in the short term but faced supply - surplus pressure in the long term [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 14, the al2508 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20415 yuan/ton. The inventory reduction slowed down, and the spot recovery was weak [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 11, 2025 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18, with an intraday increase of 1.3%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **CSI 300 Index**: It closed at 4014.81, up 4.78 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 922.8 yuan, up 27.7. The price of main - coking coal in Lvliang area increased by 50 yuan to 1100 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 to 754 yuan/ton and Mongolian No. 3 clean coal rising by 3 to 843 yuan/ton. Mines are gradually resuming production, and upstream inventory pressure is decreasing [3][4][5]. - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke closed at 1524.1, up 41.5. The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan to 1260 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises plan to raise prices for the first time due to production losses and price rebounds in black varieties [3][5]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, US sugar rose on Friday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly overnight. Brazil's expected sugarcane planting area in 2025 is 9.168506 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% decrease from the previous year. The production is estimated to be 692.988023 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 1.9% decrease from the previous year [5]. 2.3. Rubber - Due to the increase in the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, long - positions were liquidated, causing the Shanghai rubber to fall overnight. As of July 11, the inventory of natural rubber was 213,589 tons, up 817 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,690 tons, down 160 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 40,422 tons, up 4,638 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,994 tons, up 7,258 tons [6]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - **International Market**: On July 11, the CBOT soybean futures price fell slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US soybean harvest to 4.335 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, lower than the 4.34 billion bushels in June. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 11.93 million tons, a 24% increase year - on - year [7][8][9]. - **Domestic Market**: On July 11, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2976 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. Domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large soybean meal production. Feed and breeding enterprises have certain inventories and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. After September, there is a large gap in imported soybean orders, providing support for the forward market [9]. 2.5. Live Pigs - On July 11, the main live pig contract LH2509 closed at 14,345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered, and the overall slaughter rhythm has accelerated. The terminal market is in the off - season, and the demand is insufficient, so the pork price lacks support. In the medium and long term, there is still supply pressure [10]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Affected by the expected 50% tariff on Canadian copper products by the US, market speculation is suppressed. The supply side shows an increasing trend, the demand side is weak, and the global exchange inventory is increasing, putting pressure on prices. The copper price is in a balanced state between macro - negative and industry - positive factors and will likely maintain a volatile pattern [11]. 2.7. Cotton - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,905 yuan/ton. As of July 14, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 32 lots compared with the previous day [11]. 2.8. Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 787, with a low of 784.5, a high of 794, and closed at 786, with a reduction of 387 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The port log inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable. Attention should be paid to spot prices and import data [12]. 2.9. Steel - Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the black sector has risen recently, and steel prices have maintained a volatile and strong trend. However, as the basis converges and some areas start production restrictions, there is still pressure on black sector prices in the future. Steel prices will likely maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term [12]. 2.10. Alumina - Guinea has entered the rainy season, and the ore shipment volume has decreased significantly this week. The supply side of alumina has both production cuts and restarts. In the long term, there is an expectation of supply surplus, but in the short term, the low inventory of futures and the shortage of deliverable resources may drive prices up [12][13]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and the ingot casting volume is tight. The low - inventory pattern supports aluminum prices, and the sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed [13].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On July 10, 2025, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1494.2 billion yuan, slightly down by 1.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of various futures varieties also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the A-share market had a collective rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47% to 10631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22% to 2189.58 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4010.02, up 18.62 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 10, the weighted index of coke was strong, closing at 1501.6, up 50.0. The weighted index of coking coal remained strong, closing at 908.1 yuan, up 34.7. The spot price of port coke increased, and the production profit of coking enterprises was poor, leading to reduced production and inventory reduction. The price of coking coal in some areas increased, and coal mines gradually resumed production, with reduced inventory pressure [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June, the US sugar price rose on Wednesday. Supported by the increase in US sugar price and spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose on Thursday and adjusted at night. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association expects a significant increase in sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [4]. Rubber - Due to heavy rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the supply of raw materials decreased, and the spot price in Southeast Asia continued to rise. The Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Thursday and adjusted slightly at night. The operating rates of tire factories showed slight differences this week [5]. Soybean Meal - On July 10, the CBOT soybean futures rebounded. The US soybean export sales increased, but the high - quality rate and good weather reduced the risk of soybean production reduction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in oil mills was sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal was increasing. There is a large gap in imported soybean orders after September [6]. Live Pigs - On July 10, the main contract of live pigs (LH2509) rose 0.77% to 14375 yuan/ton. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end accelerated, but the terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the medium and long term [7]. Palm Oil - On July 10, palm oil had a slight shock adjustment after encountering resistance in the recent rise. The MPOB data showed that the production, export, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June had different changes, with the overall data being slightly bearish [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper showed a weak trend, with complex supply - demand situations due to the expected increase in global copper mine production and possible decline in US downstream demand. Attention should be paid to LME inventory changes and macro - policy dynamics [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 10, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13875 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. Logs - On July 10, the main contract of logs (2509) showed a certain trend, and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The port log inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [9][10]. Steel - On July 10, the rb2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3262 yuan/ton. The price increase was due to positive sentiment and the release of speculative demand in the spot market. The overall production and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and there was no significant supply - demand contradiction [11][13]. Alumina - On July 10, the ao2509 contract closed at 3208 yuan/ton. Although there is an expected supply surplus, it may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term due to news and the risk of short - squeezing [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 10, the al2508 contract closed at 20700 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was close to the industry ceiling, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum rods and ingots showed signs of accumulation, but the low - inventory state may support the price in the short term [13].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 9, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices fluctuated on July 9. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.13% to 3493.05, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 10581.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67. The trading volume reached 1505.2 billion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 3991.40, down 7.05 from the previous day [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Price movement: The weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1461.4, up 33.1 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was strong, closing at 882.8 yuan, up 29.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Influencing factors: For coke, there is an expectation of price increase, but the profit is meager, and the daily output has been falling. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the procurement willingness of traders and steel mills has slightly improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines is starting to rise, the spot auction market has improved, and the terminal inventory has increased, but the overall inventory is decreasing [4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Price movement: Affected by the technical adjustment of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on July 9. The market expects the short - term decline of US sugar to be limited, and the expected decline in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June also affected the price [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Price movement: Due to the prediction of heavy rain in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly higher on July 9. The market is worried about the supply, and the night - session price also rose [5]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - Price movement: The CBOT soybean futures fell on July 9. The domestic soybean meal futures market showed a pattern of loose supply. The M2509 contract closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The inventory of soybean meal in coastal areas increased, and the short - term futures price may fluctuate and adjust [6]. 2.5. Live Pigs - Price movement: The live pig futures price fluctuated on July 9. The LH2509 contract closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the terminal market is in the off - season, so the price lacks support [7]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Price movement: The US tariff policy and the slowdown of industrial demand in some economies have put pressure on copper prices. The domestic copper inventory has increased slightly, which has intensified the short - term bearish sentiment [7]. 2.7. Cotton - Price movement: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13880 yuan/ton on the night of July 9. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 39 lots [7]. 2.8. Logs - Price movement: The 2509 log futures opened at 785, with the lowest at 780.5, the highest at 787, and closed at 7853.5, with a reduction of 389 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The port inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [8]. 2.9. Steel - Price movement: The rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke are stable and slightly strong, but the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, and the steel market may show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. 2.10. Alumina - Price movement: The ao2509 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy and the rectification of the photovoltaic industry have stimulated the bullish sentiment, and the price has broken through the 3100 - yuan mark [9]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - Price movement: The al2508 contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton. The spot market was weak, the inventory in the East China region continued to increase, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The electrolytic aluminum inventory pressure is increasing [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 8, 2025, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points, and trading volume increased [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, production changes, and international market conditions [5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3497.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46% to 10588.39, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.39% to 2181.08. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1453.9 billion yuan, an increase of 245.3 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3998.45 on July 8, up 33.28 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 8, the coke weighted index closed at 1431.5, up 2.8, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 856.9 yuan, up 7.1 [3][4]. - Coke: Due to rising coking coal prices, some coking plants cut production. Downstream steel mills maintained stable profits but only made necessary purchases. A proposed price increase for coke faced resistance from steel mills [5]. - Coking coal: Some previously shut - down mines resumed production. Mongolian coal imports may increase after the holiday. Short - term supply was tight, but import profits for some coal types improved [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors like short - term price increases and increased Brazilian exports in June, US sugar prices adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Zhengzhou sugar futures also showed a downward trend on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Trump's tariff measures led to a rebound in Shanghai rubber prices on Tuesday, but weak fundamentals limited the rebound space [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 8, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good crop weather in the US. In the domestic market, sufficient soybean supply and high oil - mill operating rates led to high soybean meal production and inventory pressure [6][8]. Live Pigs - On July 8, the LH2509 contract closed at 14275 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The supply of live pigs increased, while terminal demand was weak, and there was medium - to - long - term supply pressure [8]. Palm Oil - On July 8, palm oil prices broke through a three - month consolidation range, with the domestic contract closing at 8644, up 2.1%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil contract also rose [9]. Shanghai Copper - The outcome of the July 9 tariff negotiation was crucial. High production and weak demand in China, along with uncertainties in the macro - economy, put pressure on copper prices [9]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 63 lots [10]. Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 785 on July 8, with a focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range. Log inventory increased slightly, and demand was weak [10]. Steel - On July 8, the rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. Steel production might decrease slightly, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [10]. Alumina - On July 8, the ao2509 contract closed at 3110 yuan/ton. Imported ore prices might rise, supporting production costs. The supply surplus situation continued [11][12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 8, the al2508 contract closed at 20525 yuan/ton. The market was weak, with sufficient supply and general demand [12].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On July 7, 2025, the three major A-share indices showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and sorted, closing up 0.02% at 3473.13 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.70% to 10435.51 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.21% to 2130.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1208.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 219.9 billion yuan from the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index adjusted and sorted on the same day, closing at 3965.18, a decrease of 17.03 from the previous day [1] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On July 7, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1429.2, a decrease of 13.0 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 849.6 yuan, a decrease of 15.3 from the previous day [2][3] - For coke, due to the increase in the price of spot coking coal, some coking plants cut production at a loss, and the supply pressure of coke eased. In the short term, most coking plants can maintain a small profit, and the possibility of a significant decline in the coke operating rate is low. The downstream steel mills have stable profits, but due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, the pig iron output declined this week, and steel mills only maintained rigid - demand procurement. For coking coal, the previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the output of coking coal has increased marginally. The customs clearance level of Mongolian coal was low last week, with an average of 600 - 700 vehicles per day. After the Mongolian National Day, the customs clearance is expected to increase. In the short term, the arrival of coking coal at ports is tight. Recently, the price of domestic coal has increased, and the import profit of some coal types has been restored, and subsequent shipments may increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction of the spot quotation, the long - position liquidation suppressed the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fluctuated slightly lower on July 7. The contract also fluctuated slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. As of the end of June in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Yunnan Province sold 1.7511 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.3182 million tons year - on - year, with a sugar sales rate of 72.40% and an industrial inventory of 0.6676 million tons, an increase of 0.0685 million tons year - on - year. Guangxi sold 5.1406 million tons of sugar in total, an increase of 0.6144 million tons year - on - year, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The industrial inventory was 1.3244 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3308 million tons [4] Group 4: Rubber - Affected by the concern that tire re - export trade may be restricted, Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower on July 7. At night, it fluctuated in a narrow range. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival and warehousing of overseas goods at Qingdao Port decreased week - on - week last week. Some downstream enterprises began maintenance and reduced production. With the rubber price running strongly, factories had no strong purchasing sentiment. The decline rate of the port's outbound rate was less than that of the inbound rate, resulting in a slight inventory accumulation trend of Qingdao's spot inventory. As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%, and the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [5] Group 5: Palm Oil - On July 7, palm oil maintained a small - range upward oscillation within the range, closing with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 8490, the lowest was 8412, and the closing price was 8466, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.13%, and an increase of 65,000 tons compared with 473,100 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 13.73% [5][7] Group 6: Soybean Meal - In the international market, on July 7, CBOT soybean futures fell. The good weather in the United States and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil pressured the prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced in its weekly crop growth report that as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations. The forecast shows that warm weather and sporadic rainfall are expected in the central and western regions of the United States in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial to crop growth. In the domestic market, on July 7, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. Recently, domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supplies, and the operating rate remains high. The output of soybean meal continues to be large. After the terminal pick - up volume is limited, the inventory will continue to increase. The loose supply pressures the price of soybean meal. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price may fluctuate and adjust. In the future, focus on the arrival volume of soybeans and the domestic soybean meal inventory [7] Group 7: Live Pigs - On July 7, the live - pig futures fluctuated weakly. The main contract LH2509 closed at 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered. As the group pig enterprises gradually increase their slaughter volume, the willingness of retail pig farms to sell has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm of live pigs has accelerated. Currently, the terminal market is in the off - season of purchase and sales, and the rigid demand in the downstream market is insufficient, which cannot strongly support the price of live pigs. With the relatively high production capacity of breeding sows, there is still supply pressure on live pigs in the medium and long term. In the short term, focus on the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of secondary fattening [8] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected employment growth in the United States implies that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates immediately, which will strengthen the U.S. dollar and put short - term pressure on copper prices. The domestic economy is running smoothly and steadily improving, but it faces uncertainties such as external trade. There is room for policy support, which has certain potential support for Shanghai copper. However, as the reciprocal tariff is approaching, the market may have a logic of reducing positions to avoid risks, and the copper price has adjusted. In the future, focus on the implementation of tariffs and changes in the supply - demand side [8] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of July 7, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on July 8, the minimum basis quotation of the designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 23 lots compared with the previous trading day [8] Group 10: Logs - On July 7, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 791, with the lowest at 785, the highest at 794.5, and closed at 787, with an increase of 324 lots in open interest. Pay attention to the pressure range of 790 - 800. On the same day, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. According to Woodlink Information, the inventory of logs at ports increased slightly, the demand was weak, there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the spot trading was weak. Pay attention to the spot price and the support of import data for the spot [9] Group 11: Steel - On July 7, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. High - temperature warnings have been issued in many parts of the country, and affected by the typhoon in the southeast coastal areas, the demand for steel may weaken this week. If steel mills have difficulties in destocking, the steel output may also decrease, and the price of raw fuels may be under pressure again [9] Group 12: Alumina - On July 7, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3042 yuan/ton. There are both disturbances in alumina ore and pressure from new production capacity. Recently, the financial meeting proposed the news of the withdrawal of backward production capacity. In the short term, policy news guides the market to oscillate strongly. Overall, although there are short - term positive factors in the news for alumina, the oversupply pattern is still difficult to change, and the upward pressure on prices continues [9] Group 13: Shanghai Aluminum - On July 7, the al2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,410 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit and changes little. In terms of demand, the orders of terminal factories have decreased significantly in the off - season, and the high aluminum price restrains downstream procurement. The inventory of aluminum rods started to accumulate about two weeks earlier than that of aluminum ingots to confirm the inventory inflection point, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has also started to accumulate slightly recently. Whether it is an inflection point remains to be observed. The low - inventory state of aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, which plays a certain supporting role in the price [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 4, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 10508.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.36% to 2156.23 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1428.6 billion yuan, an increase of 118.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 3982.20, up 14.13 [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal Futures (Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1438.7, down 6.3. Supply contracted as coke enterprises had small losses, low production enthusiasm, and reduced daily output. Demand had short - term support as iron - water production increased slightly. It was expected to run in a high - level oscillation [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 852.9 yuan, down 9.3. Domestic supply decreased due to safety supervision in Inner Mongolia and partial resumption in Shanxi. Import had inventory pressure. Demand was marginally better as blast - furnace iron - water production increased slightly while coke - enterprise开工 decreased [2]. 2.2. Sugar Futures (Zhengzhou Sugar) - The 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline at night. In the 2024/2025 season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area increased by 110,000 mu to 1.135 million mu, and sugar production increased by 283,600 tons to 6.465 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3,361,831 tons, higher than 3,194,340 tons in the same period last year [2]. 2.3. Rubber Futures (Shanghai Rubber) - Shanghai rubber declined at night due to short - selling pressure. As of July 4, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,772 tons, down 2148 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, down 3110 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory was 35,784 tons, up 1513 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, up 2118 tons [3]. 2.4. Soybean Meal Futures - International market: The US soybean planting area in 2025 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The growth indicators were close to the previous year and the five - year average. Future weather in the US Midwest was favorable for growth, but potential weather factors might attract funds [3]. - Domestic market: On July 4, the main M2509 contract of soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. Domestic oil mills had sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large production. Inventory would increase, limiting price increases. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [3][4]. 2.5. Live Pig Futures - On July 4, the live pig futures rose slightly, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14305 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The terminal market was in the off - season, but early - month supply was tight due to scale farms' price - holding and farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price rose, the supply rhythm might recover. There was medium - term supply pressure in the third quarter [4]. 2.6. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13850 yuan/ton on Friday night. The minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton. High temperatures of 35 - 40°C were expected in southern and eastern Xinjiang [4]. 2.7. Copper Futures (Shanghai Copper) - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by strong US non - farm data, a stronger US dollar, and rising non - US copper inventories. Supply pressure eased, but long - term supply was still tight. Demand was weak in domestic power infrastructure and home appliance procurement, but grid investment and new - energy demand provided some support. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. 2.8. Log Futures - The 2509 contract of logs opened at 796, with a low of 791, a high of 798, and closed at 795, with a daily reduction of 154 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable [5]. 2.9. Steel Futures (Rebar) - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on July 1 was expected to improve the steel industry's supply - demand pattern, boosting the rebar futures price. Further price increases depended on substantial production cuts [5]. 2.10. Alumina Futures - The raw - material supply of alumina was relatively sufficient, with port inventory in the medium - high range. Guinea's supply decreased seasonally, and the price was stable. Domestic production capacity was high, and the futures price rebounded. Demand was stable as electrolytic - aluminum production capacity was capped [6]. 2.11. Aluminum Futures (Shanghai Aluminum) - Domestic production capacity was stable. Due to the off - season, downstream orders decreased, ingot production increased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious about high prices, but consumption expectations were positive due to policy support [6][7]. 2.12. Lithium Carbonate Futures - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded due to improved demand expectations in July and rigid - demand orders. However, supply was still strong, and the oversupply situation continued [7].