Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On October 10, A-share market's three major indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.94% to 3897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.70% to 13355.42 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 4.55% to 3113.26 points. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2515.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index pulled back on October 10, closing at 4616.83, down 92.65 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 10, the weighted coke index continued to rebound, closing at 1689.5, up 32.3 [1]. - The weighted coking coal index fluctuated in a range on October 10, closing at 1176.7 yuan, up 15.4 [2]. - The first round of coke price increase was fully implemented on the 1st, with a tamping increase of 50 - 55 and a top - loading increase of 70 - 75. The second round of price increase basically failed. During the holiday, transportation was smooth, coke enterprises had a slight inventory build - up, and their profits were near the break - even point, maintaining a normal production rhythm [2]. - Due to factors such as holidays and safety accidents, some coal mines reduced production during the National Day and are expected to gradually resume after the holiday. Mongolian coal resumed normal customs clearance on October 8. After the holiday, Mongolian coal is expected to see a significant increase [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season led the market to be defensive. Affected by this, US sugar oscillated and declined on Friday. Due to a large short - term decline, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated and slightly closed lower at night [2]. - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is expected to increase by 3.3% year - on - year to 40.12 million tons, and sugar production is estimated to increase by 7.7% year - on - year to 3.05 million tons. Brazil exported 3.24583761 million tons of sugar in September, a 16% year - on - year decrease [2]. Rubber - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and a sharp decline in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on the night of Friday. As of October 10, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3729 tons to 180630 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5420 tons to 144390 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 1310 tons to 45562 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 705 tons to 43129 tons [3]. Soybean Meal - On October 10, the CBOT soybean futures oscillated weakly, with the main November contract down 1.44% to 1007 cents per bushel. Favorable weather in the US Midwest promoted the harvest, and the concentrated listing of new soybeans and concerns about export demand hindered the rise of US soybean prices [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to be 7.12 million tons, much higher than 4.44 million tons in the same period last year. As of October 2, 9% of Brazil's soybean planting area has been completed, compared with 3% last week and 4% in the same period last year [4]. - On October 10, the soybean meal futures oscillated weakly, with the main M2601 contract closing at 2922 yuan per ton, down 0.58%. China's imported soybean arrivals are still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills has remained above 2.25 million tons for four consecutive weeks [4]. Live Hogs - On October 10, the live hog futures weakened, with the main LH2511 contract down 2.37% to 11320 yuan per ton. Currently, the production capacity of suitable - weight standard pigs is being released intensively, and the supply capacity has increased significantly. After the holiday, consumption declined, and it is difficult to support the pig price. However, after November, with the start of curing demand and policy support, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the rebound height is restricted by the expected over - capacity [5]. Shanghai Copper - The sudden news of additional tariffs on imported goods on Friday triggered concerns about trade frictions. The global copper mine supply remains tight, and domestic smelters' production willingness has declined. However, the expected escalation of trade frictions and the uncertainty of downstream demand recovery after resumption of work will limit the rebound height [5]. Iron Ore - On October 10, the main Iron Ore 2601 contract oscillated and rose, with a 1.02% increase to 795 yuan. Recently, the iron ore shipment volume decreased month - on - month, the domestic arrivals increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is in an oscillating trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On October 10, the main Asphalt 2511 contract oscillated and declined, with a 1.42% decrease to 3328 yuan. This period's asphalt production and shipment volume both decreased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased. The asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13355 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 88 lots compared with the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton is 6.02 - 6.25 yuan per kilogram [6]. Logs - On October 11, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 760 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually reducing inventory, with expectations for the peak season [8]. Steel - The October steel market is a game between expectations and reality. The industrial positive factors of "anti - involution" and "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" have been fully traded in the first round. The current trading logic of the black metal chain has switched to a double - drive of macro - industrial policies and fundamentals. High inventory and weak demand will limit the price increase space, but policy expectations and low valuations in the peak season provide bottom support [8]. Alumina - Recently, the operating capacity of alumina has changed little, and the production remains at a high level. The import has increased recently, and the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The spot market trading is light, and the inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The alumina price is under downward pressure [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of alumina, the raw material, is still abundant, and its spot price is weakening. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. With the improvement of downstream demand expectations after the holiday and policy support, the inventory is decreasing. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and increasing demand [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report provides comprehensive analyses of various futures and commodities, including their price movements, influencing factors, and market trends. It also offers insights into the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and future outlooks for each product [1][2][3] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 30, A - share three major indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3882.78, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35% to 13526.51, the ChiNext Index was flat at 3238.16, and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose 1.69% to 1495.29. The trading volume of the two markets reached 21814 billion, an increase of 20 billion from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4640.69, up 20.64 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 30, the coke weighted index closed at 1642.3, down 42.2, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1137.7 yuan, down 45.5. Some steel mills accepted the first - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton from coke enterprises. Tangshan's billet - rolling section steel mills implemented production control from September 29 to October 20. The current iron - water output was 242.36 million tons, an increase of 1.34 million tons, with high - level oscillation, and coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 34 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The mine - end capacity utilization rate has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of independent coal - washing plants continued to rise. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months, and inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks with a seasonal upward trend [1][2] Zhengzhou Sugar - During the long holiday, it showed a slight upward trend. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of September increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 362 million tons, but the sugar - making ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points. The weakening of the US dollar due to the government shutdown supported the price. However, the optimistic production prospects of major producers such as Brazil, India, and Thailand limited the upward space [2] Rubber - During the long holiday, Southeast Asian spot prices and Japanese rubber prices were weak due to concerns about the US government shutdown and economic uncertainties. However, Japanese rubber rose on Wednesday due to currency depreciation. From January to August, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 110.2 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, while Indonesia's were 114.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [3] Palm Oil - During the National Day holiday, the international oil market generally rose. As of October 8, the main contract of the Malaysian palm oil futures rose about 4.48% compared with the end of September. MPOA data showed that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 30 decreased by 2.35%, with a 6.17% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.35% increase in Sabah, a 6.62% increase in Sarawak, and a 3.44% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total production in September was 1.81 billion tons. SPPOMA data showed that from October 1 - 5, the yield per unit area increased by 11.61% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production increased by 12.55% month - on - month [3][4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, during the National Day holiday, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated upward, with the main November contract rising about 2.85%. There was technical buying, but the US soybean harvest was over 40%, and new soybeans on the market created seasonal supply pressure. As of October 4, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 8.2%, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. In the domestic market, the arrival volume of imported soybeans was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills remained above 2.3 billion tons for four consecutive weeks. As of September 29, the oil - mill soybean - meal inventory was 1.16 billion tons. The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, and soybean - meal demand was affected. In the short term, soybean meal was in a state of loose supply [5] Live Pigs - At the end of August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 billion, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal level, with high supply pressure. During the National Day, pig consumption was weaker than expected, and after the holiday, it entered the off - season. However, in November, there may be a seasonal rebound in demand in some southern regions. In the short term, the pig market has loose supply [6] Shanghai Copper - During the holiday, London copper futures rose due to supply concerns in Chile and Indonesia, but the strengthening of the US dollar limited the increase. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October has risen to 96.2%, and the probability in December is about 86%. China is expected to introduce new stimulus policies in the fourth quarter, which is positive for copper prices. Most market participants are optimistic about copper - price increases [6] Iron Ore - Recently, iron - ore supply has been relatively loose, and iron - water production has remained high. However, as the profitability of steel mills decreases, the upward space for iron - water production is limited. In the short term, iron - ore prices are in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - The planned production in October increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival of the traditional consumption season has brought restocking demand, but the high - level supply suppresses price increases. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [7] Logs - On the last trading day before the holiday, the log futures opened at 811.5, with a low of 808, a high of 830, and closed at 817, with a decrease of 1142 lots in positions. The price broke through the 820 resistance and then fell back below it. Attention should be paid to the 805 support and 820 resistance. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [7] Cotton - On the last trading day before the holiday, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fell 1.12% to 13215 yuan/ton. Hail and rain in northern Xinjiang affected the new - cotton purchase progress. The downstream textile market has entered the peak season, but new orders are limited. The average price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang is 6.1 yuan per kilogram. From October 1 - 8, US cotton fell 1.02% [9] Steel - During the National Day, the prices of national construction steel remained stable, but market trading was light. The market is in a tug - of - war between policy expectations and weak reality, and steel traders are hesitant between production restrictions and insufficient demand. Although the policy signals price stability, weak terminal demand keeps steel prices volatile [9] Alumina - The supply of bauxite is abundant, and alumina production is at a high level. Overseas alumina transactions have increased, and most are shipped to China. The domestic supply - surplus pressure is increasing, inventory is accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure. The alumina futures price is in a weak - oscillation trend [9] Shanghai Aluminum - After the Fed cuts interest rates, the trading rhythm of base metals has shifted from strong - expectation - driven to verification of actual demand growth. The global economic recovery signs are emerging. The Fed's interest - rate - cut expectation has increased during the holiday, and it is highly likely to cut interest rates three times this year, which will also open up space for China's monetary policy and may drive up prices when demand increases [10]

Variety Views - On September 29, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.90% to 3862.53, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05% to 13479.43, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74% to 3238.01. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2161.5 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4620.05, a rise of 70.00 [1] - On September 29, the coke weighted index remained weak, closing at 1665.3, a decrease of 70.9. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1165.2 yuan, a decrease of 60.4 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices - Most downstream construction enterprises have limited improvement in cash flow, only 9% show strong inventory preparation willingness, 83% have the same construction days year-on-year, and 43% are bearish on steel prices after the festival. In October 2025, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is expected to be 29.24 million units, a decrease of 9.9% from the same period last year. Coke price increase is expected to be officially implemented during or after the National Day, and the coking profit is expected to improve slightly. The demand for coke is strong, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The supply of coking coal is abundant, but there is a risk of marginal deterioration in the inventory structure after the festival, and it is expected that it will be more difficult to support the spot price [3] - Affected by the reduction of spot quotes and the holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower on September 29. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the first half of September is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons [3] - Due to the approaching long holiday, both long and short sides reduced their positions, and the Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower at night. In August 2025, the annualized sales volume of global light vehicles was just over 94 million units per year, basically the same as the previous month. In August 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger car market increased by 5.3% to 677,786 units [4] - On September 29, the CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the expansion of the US soybean harvest area and concerns about export demand. As of September 29, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, and the good rate was 62%. In the domestic market, the soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2931 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The supply of domestic soybeans is abundant, and the soybean meal inventory has climbed to over 1.2 million tons [4][5][6] - On September 29, the LH2511 contract closed at 12,295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23%. Affected by the release of production capacity and official de - capacity measures, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and the market demand has not reached the expected level, so the live pig futures are oscillating weakly [6] - On September 29, the palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly at the lower edge of the range. As of September 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 552,200 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.62%, and an increase of 46,300 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 9.16% [7] - Affected by high US inflation, uncertainty about the interest - rate cut path, and potential trade tariffs, the Shanghai copper may oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the shortage of copper ore and the growth of new energy demand will push up the copper price [7] - On the night of September 29, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,245 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 224 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the price of machine - picked cotton was 6.02 - 6.22 yuan per kilogram [7] - On September 29, the log 2511 contract opened at 808.5, closed at 810.5, and decreased its position by 701 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the spot trading is weak [8] - On September 29, the iron ore 2601 contract decreased by 1.57%, closing at 784 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased, the arrival increased, and the iron water production remained high. The upward space of iron ore prices may be limited in the short term [8] - On September 29, the asphalt 2511 contract increased by 0.43%, closing at 3466 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, the social inventory decreased, and the refinery inventory pressure increased. The demand in the north is supported by pre - holiday construction, while the demand in the south is weak due to heavy rainfall [9][10] - On September 29, the rb2601 contract was reported at 3097 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3289 yuan/ton. Considering the potential inventory accumulation during the National Day and the expected increase in supply - demand pressure after the festival, the steel price may be weakly stable in the short term [10] - On September 29, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2942 yuan/ton. The alumina has no upward driving force, the cost is expected to decline, the demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change [10] - On September 29, the al2511 contract was reported at 20,730 yuan/ton. There is greater uncertainty in the Fed's future monetary policy. The "anti - involution" sentiment in copper smelting has driven up the aluminum futures. After the double - festivals, the inventory change of aluminum ingots needs to be concerned [11]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 26, the three major A-share indices all pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.60%. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on September 26, closing at 4550.05, down 43.44 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 26, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1710.3, down 48.5 from the previous day [3] - The weighted index of coking coal trended weakly on September 26, closing at 1207.0 yuan, down 32.4 from the previous day [4] - For coke, port spot prices rose, with the price at Rizhao Port up 10 yuan/ton. Supply - rising coking coal prices increased costs for coke enterprises, squeezing profit margins, but production enthusiasm remained. Demand - steel mills' overall operation remained high, and rigid demand for coke increased as holidays approached, but terminal consumption was average with steel inventory accumulation, so overall restocking was expected to be limited [5] - For coking coal, prices in some regions changed. Supply - most mines in production areas operated normally, traders were actively buying, demand was good, and coal mine shipments were smooth, with online auctions generally showing an upward trend [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Last Friday, ICE raw sugar futures fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. Due to the approaching long holiday, both long and short positions reduced to avoid risks, and the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and closed slightly lower in the night session on September 26. As of the week ending September 23, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 22,260 contracts to 168,357 contracts [5] Rubber - Due to market concerns about the impact of tariffs on the European auto industry and the holiday effect, long - position liquidation pressured Shanghai rubber futures to fall on September 26. As of September 26, Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory decreased by 8852 tons to 187,972 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5500 tons to 149,420 tons. The inventory of 20 - grade rubber decreased by 1713 tons to 47,982 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1611 tons to 42,942 tons [6] Palm Oil - On the night of September 26, palm oil futures continued to trade in a narrow range, with prices rebounding slightly from the daytime close but still within the daytime price range. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line, at 9278, up 0.45% from the daytime close. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 3.19% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [6][7] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 26, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products after a two - day suspension. Brazil's ANEC lowered the estimated soybean exports for September from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons. Domestically, on September 26, the main soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. Chinese buyers actively ordered Argentine soybeans, improving the long - term supply situation. Currently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China is still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. In the short term, soybean meal supply is abundant [7] Live Hogs - On September 26, live hog futures trended weakly. The main LH2511 contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Currently, production capacity is being released intensively, with group farms accelerating the slaughter of standard hogs and individual pig farmers more willing to sell. Traditional demand is approaching the peak season, and pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, but market consumption has not met expectations and is not enough to strongly support prices [8] Shanghai Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been strengthening, and the US dollar index has declined. China will implement more active consumption - expansion policies, and with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the outlook for the copper industry has improved, with downstream copper product production expected to pick up significantly, and refined copper demand may increase significantly. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decrease, and copper prices are expected to rise [8] Iron Ore - On September 26, the main iron ore 2601 contract fell 1.74% to close at 790 yuan. Iron ore shipments decreased while arrivals increased, and pig iron production remained high. As pre - holiday restocking nears the end, steel mills' purchasing pace has slowed down, and the upward space for iron ore may be limited. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [8] Asphalt - On September 26, the main asphalt 2511 contract rose 0.7% to close at 3450 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased month - on - month, social inventory continued to decline, while refinery inventory pressure increased, and shipments continued to rise. In the north, pre - holiday construction rush still supports demand to some extent, but in the south, heavy rainfall has weakened demand. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 26, the 2511 log contract opened at 806, with a low of 805, a high of 810, and closed at 808.5, with a reduction of 668 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10 - day moving average of 805. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the resistance at 815 - 820. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak. Pay attention to spot prices during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [9] Cotton - On the night of September 26, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,400 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 186 lots from the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton is between 6.15 - 6.5 yuan per kilogram [10] Steel - Recently, typhoons in South China and the upcoming double - holiday have affected construction site demand. However, as the weather cools down, steel demand may recover after the holiday. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures price to rise rapidly, but now there is a lack of further upward momentum. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the futures price. Pay attention to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [10] Alumina - Due to the rainy season in Guinea, bauxite shipments remain low, which is reflected in the domestic arrival data. Northern Chinese bauxite mines have not resumed production, and only some compliant capacities are expected to resume by the end of the year due to environmental protection policies. Although bauxite inventory has decreased slightly, the absolute inventory is still high, and bauxite supply is still abundant. Meanwhile, the weakening alumina price has increased the price - cutting intention of alumina plants. In the short term, bauxite prices may remain weakly volatile. The core factor leading the alumina price is still oversupply. Currently, domestic operating capacity remains high, and recently imported alumina from overseas has arrived in large quantities, increasing inventory and causing prices to fall both at home and abroad. In the short term, the price may trend weakly [11] Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, the supply of alumina, the raw material, is still excessive, and the spot price is close to the cost line and at a low level. Electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit margins and are enthusiastic about production. On the supply side, previously replaced capacity projects have gradually been completed and put into operation, and with the release of new capacity, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly again, and high - level operation may lead to a slight increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum supply. On the demand side, positive consumption - expansion policies have improved the outlook for aluminum product consumption, and the improvement of downstream production will boost aluminum demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand [11]

Variety Views - On September 25th, the three major A-share indexes showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 3853.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to 13445.90 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.58% to 3235.76 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2371.1 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4593.49, a rise of 27.42 [1] - On September 25th, the coke weighted index fluctuated strongly, closing at 1777.0, a rise of 33.7. The coking coal weighted index consolidated within a range, closing at 1245.7 yuan, a rise of 12.2 [1] Impact on Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - For coke, port spot prices rose. The cost of coking coal increased, squeezing profit margins for coke enterprises. Steel mills' overall start - up remained high, and the rigid demand for coke increased before holidays, but overall restocking was expected to be limited [2] - For coking coal, prices in some regions adjusted. Supply was normal, demand was good, and online auctions generally trended upwards [2] Zhengzhou Sugar - US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Affected by technical factors, Zhengzhou sugar contract 2601 adjusted and closed slightly lower on Thursday. StoneX predicted that Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase. The global sugar market was expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons in 2025/26, compared with a shortage of 4.67 million tons in 2024/25 [2] Rubber - Affected by holidays, rubber prices fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower on Thursday. Due to the decline in tire factory operating rates this week, rubber prices fell at night. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points month - on - month and 6.95 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month and 6.27 percentage points year - on - year. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3][5] Palm Oil - On September 25th, palm oil futures prices rebounded and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main contract P2601 closed with an upper and lower shadow small Yang line. Shipments from Malaysia from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% compared with the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 25th, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. Argentina re - imposed export withholding taxes. China had not ordered US soybeans. US soybean export sales in the week ending September 18 were 724,500 tons. Domestically, on September 25th, the main contract M2601 of soybean meal closed at 2956 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.37%. China had ordered about 20 ships of Argentine soybeans [6] Live Hogs - On September 24th, live hog futures fluctuated. The main contract LH2511 closed at 12685 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.35%. Supply pressure was high, and although demand increased before holidays, it was still below expectations. In the short term, prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend [7] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose sharply. The supply was disrupted by the accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia. Technically, it broke through key resistance levels. Long - term supply was tight, and demand was expected to grow [8] Iron Ore - On September 25th, the main contract 2601 of iron ore fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.25%. Supply and demand both increased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On September 25th, the main contract 2511 of asphalt fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.3%. Refinery production in October was expected to increase. Social inventory decreased, while refinery inventory pressure increased. Demand in the north was supported by pre - holiday construction, while demand in the south was weak due to weather. Prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13490 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 133 lots. China's cotton production in 2025 was expected to reach 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% increase year - on - year [10] Logs - On September 25th, the futures price of logs rebounded above the 10 - day moving average. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no major contradiction in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [10] Steel - On September 25th, rb2601 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3358 yuan/ton. There was pre - holiday restocking demand, but high - priced resources had average transactions. The steel market was generally balanced, and cost still supported prices. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly in the short term [11] Alumina - On September 25th, ao2601 closed at 2942 yuan/ton. The market was facing supply surplus pressure. Future prices may maintain a low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the situation in Guinea and domestic environmental policies [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 25th, al2511 closed at 20765 yuan/ton. Aluminum supply was stable at a high level, and inventory was increasing. Demand improvement was less than expected, but there was still support during the September peak season [11]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 24th, A-share major indices strengthened collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% to 3853.64 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80% to 13356.14 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.28% to 3185.57 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.49% to 1456.47 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2326.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 167.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4566.07, a month-on-month increase of 46.29 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 24th, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 1747.4, a month-on-month increase of 20.8. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated within the range, closing at 1234.2 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 14.0. Coke's spot price declined, coke enterprise profits decreased, and the enthusiasm for starting work declined, resulting in a month-on-month contraction in coke supply. The real demand for coke was at a high level, and downstream enterprises purchased on demand. For coking coal, domestic coal supply slowly recovered, and Mongolian coal customs clearance recovered. However, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced resources decreased [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors, US sugar stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. Driven by the rise of US sugar and the approaching long holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract rose on Wednesday. China's refined sugar production in August 2025 was 454,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%. The cumulative production from January to August was 10.284 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. India may allow 1 million tons of sugar exports in the next season [2]. Rubber - Affected by the approaching long holiday, both long and short funds reduced their positions to avoid risks. Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. From January to August 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The export volume of automobile tires from January to August was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3]. Palm Oil - On September 24th, palm oil futures prices stopped falling and rebounded, mainly fluctuating narrowly. The closing price of the main contract P2601 was 9126, a 0.8% increase from the previous day. It is expected that Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU will increase from an estimated 3.3 million metric tons this year to about 4 million metric tons in 2026. Exports to India are expected to increase from 4.8 million tons last year to 5 million tons in 2025 [3][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 24th, CBOT soybean futures declined slightly. Argentina temporarily cancelled export tariffs on agricultural products, squeezing US soybean export shares. The US soybean harvest progress was advancing orderly, but the excellent rate was lower than expected, which supported prices to some extent. Domestically, on September 24th, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 2930 yuan/ton, a 0.07% increase. After Argentina cancelled export tariffs, Chinese buyers ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans. In a context of loose supply, soybean meal prices may fluctuate weakly [5]. Live Pigs - On September 24th, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. The main contract LH2511 closed at 13345 yuan/ton, a 0.98% increase. Currently, the production capacity was in a stage of concentrated release, and the market supply pressure was relatively large. Although the pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm had increased, market consumption had not reached the expected level. In the short term, live pig futures prices may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [6]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly during the day, with the main contract closing at 79960 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase. Concerns about supply due to the shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine persisted. Freeport - McMoRan expected a 4% decline in copper sales in the third quarter. LME copper inventories were falling, and domestic refined copper social inventories also decreased, but downstream demand was not strong. Future focus included domestic policy trends, US macro - indicators, and inventory changes [7]. Logs - On September 24th, the 2511 log contract opened at 807, with the lowest at 802, the highest at 808, and closed at 803, with a reduction of 362 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10 - day moving average of 805. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 815 - 820. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot transactions were weak [7][8]. Iron Ore - On September 24th, the main contract of iron ore 2601 closed flat after fluctuating, with a closing price of 803.5 yuan. The current iron ore shipments declined, arrivals increased, and iron water production continued to increase slightly at a high level. As the holiday approached, steel mills still had some procurement and replenishment needs, showing a pattern of increasing supply and demand. In the short term, iron ore prices were in a fluctuating trend [8]. Asphalt - On September 24th, the main contract of asphalt 2511 closed up after fluctuating, with a 0.44% increase and a closing price of 3392 yuan. Refinery production in October was expected to increase, and supply might increase. The pre - holiday rush in the north supported demand, but the demand in the south was weak due to typhoon and rainfall. In the short term, asphalt prices would mainly fluctuate [9]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13520 yuan/ton. Cotton inventories decreased by 199 lots compared with the previous trading day. The price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was about 6.15 - 6.5 yuan/kg [9]. Steel - On September 24th, rb2601 closed at 3164 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3357 yuan/ton. In September, steel demand recovered slowly, high - priced resource transactions were poor, and low - priced resource transactions were okay. Supply and demand were generally balanced. The cost of steel still had support, and in the short term, steel prices might fluctuate within a narrow range [9]. Alumina - On September 24th, ao2601 closed at 2877 yuan/ton. The core contradiction in bauxite was the co - existence of tight domestic supply, low Guinea shipments, and high bauxite inventories. Alumina inventories were increasing, and prices continued to fall. The oversupply situation would continue, and prices might be weak in the short term [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 24th, al2511 closed at 20705 yuan/ton. The core factors affecting aluminum prices were macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the interest rate cut in September, the macro - drive paused, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading might shift to fundamentals, with inventory being the key point. After the short - term price correction, downstream trading sentiment improved, and Shanghai aluminum might maintain a slightly strong fluctuating trend [10].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 23, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.29% to 13119.82, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21% to 3114.55. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2494.4 billion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4519.78, down 2.83 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - Price: The weighted index of coke closed at 1734.4, down 10.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1229.0 yuan, down 10.7 [3][4]. - Factors: For coke, the third - round price cut is still expected, while some coking plants start the first - round price increase. The overall inventory is increasing, and traders' purchasing willingness has improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the pre - National Day replenishment sentiment is strong, and the total inventory has increased [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Price: Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the possible reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday and rebounded at night [5]. - Supply: Based on the current crop growth, India's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous season, and the total sugar production is expected to increase 18% to 34.9 million tons [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Price: Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, with natural rubber being weak and 20 - number rubber being slightly stronger. It rose slightly at night due to the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - Production: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production increased 1.6% to 7.95467 billion pieces [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - Price: The M2601 main contract of soybean meal closed at 2928 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.49% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory is rising. The price is expected to be weak under the supply pressure [8]. 2.5 Live Pigs - Price: The LH2511 main contract of live pigs closed at 12665 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.02% [8]. - Supply - demand: The supply of standard pigs increased significantly in September, and the market supply pressure is large. Although the pre - festival stocking enthusiasm has increased, the consumption has not reached the expected level, and the price may remain weak [8]. 2.6 Palm Oil - Price: The P2601 main contract of palm oil closed at 9054, a decline of 3.27%. The highest price was 9294, and the lowest was 8946 [9]. - Production: An Indonesian state - owned palm oil producer aims for a crude palm oil production of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 [9]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Price: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price is under pressure. The inventory is rising, and the spot basis premium has narrowed to 60 points [9]. - Factors: The macro - level policies are not releasing more positive signals, and the Fed's internal differences increase market uncertainty. The supply is tightened due to a mine shutdown, but the demand is still cautious [9]. 2.8 Cotton - Price: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13580 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday, and the inventory decreased by 181 lots [10]. - Export: From January to August 2025, China's cotton product export volume was 4.9341 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.49%, but the export value decreased 4.95%, and the unit price dropped 13.11% [10]. 2.9 Logs - Price: The 2511 contract opened at 808, closed at 805, with a daily reduction of 362 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [10]. - Market: The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [10]. 2.10 Iron Ore - Price: The 2601 main contract of iron ore fell 1.23% to 802.5 yuan [11]. - Supply - demand: The shipment decreased, the arrival increased, and the steel mills have pre - festival replenishment demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. 2.11 Asphalt - Price: The 2511 main contract of asphalt fell 1.2% to 3373 yuan [12]. - Supply - demand: The capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment increased. The price will fluctuate in the short term [12]. 2.12 Alumina - Price: The ao2601 contract closed at 2877 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the expected supply expansion suppresses the price. The price may fluctuate around the cost line [12]. 2.13 Shanghai Aluminum - Price: The al2511 contract closed at 20685 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply - demand: The downstream peak - season characteristics are not obvious, but the consumption willingness is expected to improve. The price is looking for a bottom in the range [12]. 2.14 Steel - Price: The rb2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3340 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - demand: The supply is weak and the demand is increasing, but the downstream has not improved. The price will fluctuate under the game of multiple factors [13].

Variety Views - On September 22, A-share major indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3828.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to 13157.97 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.55% to 3107.89 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.38% to 1408.64 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2121.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 202.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on September 22, closing at 4522.61, up 20.69 [1]. - On September 22, the coke weighted index adjusted and closed at 1733.0, down 7.8. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1227.7 yuan, up 0.5 [1][2]. - The coke spot may start the third round of price cuts, but some coking enterprises propose price increases, intensifying the game between steel and coking. The coking coal supply is disturbed, but the mine output continues to increase this week, indicating limited impact. The spot transaction has rebounded to a high level, the Mongolian coal price has been raised twice, and the upstream inventory has been destocked for three consecutive weeks, with improving demand [3]. - Affected by the decline in the spot price, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fell slightly on September 22. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year-on-year. The total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,800 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 44,200 tons [3]. - Affected by the technical level and the rebound of Southeast Asian spot prices, the Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on September 22. As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.76% [4]. - On September 22, the CBOT soybean futures were weak. As of the week of September 21, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62% and the same period last year of 64%. The soybean harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12% and the same period last year of 12%. The domestic soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton on September 22, up 0.66%. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise [4][6]. - On September 22, the LH2511 contract closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. In September, the supply of standard pigs increased significantly, and the market supply pressure was large. The demand was supported by the approaching holidays, but the futures price may remain weak in the short term [6]. - On September 22, the palm oil futures fluctuated slightly. The high-frequency data showed that from September 1 - 20, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 6.57% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month-on-month, and the production decreased by 7.89% month-on-month. Different institutions' data on export volume showed different trends [7]. - After the Fed cut interest rates in September, the market sentiment improved, and the copper price rebounded. The downstream may have some stocking demand before the National Day, which supports the copper price [8]. - On the night of September 22, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,575 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 136 lots compared with the previous trading day. The price of new cotton in Xinjiang on September 22 was 6.2 - 6.67 yuan/kg in the northern region and about 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg in the southern region [8]. - On September 22, the log 2511 contract opened at 805, with the lowest at 801, the highest at 813.5, and closed at 807.5, with a reduction of 438 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. In August, the log import volume was 2.11 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24% [8][9]. - On September 22, the iron ore 2601 contract rose 0.37% to close at 808.5 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume rebounded, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. Steel mills have stocking demand before the festival, and the molten iron output increased slightly at a high level [9]. - On September 22, the asphalt 2511 contract fell 0.7% to close at 3401 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment volume rebounded. The demand in the north was supported by the weather, while the rain in the south hindered the demand [9]. - On September 22, the rb2601 contract was reported at 3185 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3380 yuan/ton. The steel demand continued to recover slowly in September, and the supply - demand relationship improved slightly. The cost supported the steel price, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate at a high level [10]. - On September 22, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2934 yuan/ton. There was a slight disturbance at the mine end, and the domestic bauxite port inventory decreased significantly. The alumina production capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory reached a new high, and the spot prices at home and abroad fell [10]. - On September 22, the al2511 contract was reported at 20745 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply remained stable at a high level, the exchange inventories at home and abroad continued to increase, and the overall improvement of downstream demand was still less than that of the same period in previous years [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties on September 19, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, soybean meal, live pigs, palm oil, Shanghai copper, iron ore, asphalt, log, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum, and predicts their future trends [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 19, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated and sorted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.30% to 3,820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.04% to 13,070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.16% to 3,091.00 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.3238 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 811.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4,501.92, a month-on-month increase of 3.81 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index fluctuated strongly on September 19, closing at 1,754.1, a month-on-month increase of 15.9. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts in the coking industry, but due to low profits, some coking plants have proposed a first-round price increase, intensifying the game. The overall coke inventory has increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Due to the high market expectation of coking coal overproduction inspection and "anti-involution," there is a certain expectation of an increase in coke costs, and the price mainly follows the rise of coking coal [1] - Coking coal: The price is relatively strong due to the high market expectation of overproduction inspection and "anti-involution." The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions have weakened, the transaction price has followed the decline of the disk, and the terminal inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has increased month-on-month, the production-end inventory has decreased slightly, the short-term shutdown of coking coal has basically recovered, the impact duration is short, and the impact on inventory is small [1][2] Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short-term decline and the influence of technical factors, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Affected by the large short-term decline and the rebound of the US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and sorted slightly higher in the night session last Friday. A commodity research report shows that the estimated beet output of the EU 27 and the UK in the 2025/26 season remains at 113.6 million tons. Traders and government officials said that India's sugar exports are expected to be less than 800,000 tons this year, failing to meet the quota of 1 million tons, as the increase in Brazilian supply has pulled down global sugar prices and affected India's sugar exports [2] Rubber - Due to the large short-term decline and the influence of technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted slightly higher last Friday. As of September 19, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 196,824 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,876 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 154,920 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,180 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 49,695 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 44,553 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,411 tons [2] Soybean Meal - International market: On September 19, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean has entered the initial stage of harvesting. Given the dry weather in the US soybean producing areas and the decline in crop quality, the market expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield in next month's report. Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company released its first forecast for the 2025/26 crop year, expecting soybean production to increase by 3.6% compared with the previous year [3] - Domestic market: On September 19, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7%. At present, the number of imported soybeans in China is large, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating level, the pressing volume remains high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. As of last week, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.36 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons. In the short term, the inventory pressure of soybeans and soybean meal is still large. Due to the loose supply and the increasing supply pressure after the start of the US soybean harvest, the price of soybean meal fluctuates weakly. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the changes in soybean arrival volume [3][4] Live Pigs - On September 19, the main contract of live pigs LH2511 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, the supply of standard pigs in September has increased significantly, and the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated release. The slaughter rhythm of large-scale pig farms has accelerated, and the willingness of small and medium-sized pig farms to sell pigs has also increased significantly. The overall market supply is sufficient. Although the consumer demand has shown a slow recovery recently, the start-up rate of slaughterhouses has been briefly boosted by the start of the school season and the pre-holiday stocking, but the high temperature in the south has suppressed the consumption of fresh meat, and the sales of white-striped pigs are not smooth. The demand side is still difficult to strongly support the market in the short term. In the short term, the futures price of live pigs may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the loose supply and limited demand growth. In the future, attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs and the actual effect of production capacity regulation policies [4] Palm Oil - On Friday night, the palm oil futures continued to maintain a slight consolidation state, and the current price range has reached the lower edge of the overall high range. At the close, the K-line of the main contract P2601 closed with a small doji with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9,336, the lowest price was 9,286, and the closing price was 9,306, a decrease of 0.11% from the Friday daytime close. High-frequency data: According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 to 20 was 1,010,032 tons, an increase of 8.7% compared with the export volume of 929,051 tons in the same period last month [5] Shanghai Copper - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the policy trend is attracting attention, and the US dollar index has fluctuated sharply. The social inventory of Shanghai copper has accumulated for three consecutive weeks. The tight supply of raw materials is difficult to significantly improve in the short term, which will support copper prices to a certain extent. However, attention should be paid to the production situation of smelters. On the demand side, the pre-holiday stocking demand may boost copper prices to a certain extent, but the high price still suppresses demand, and the upward space of copper prices may be limited [5] Iron Ore - On September 19, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.81%, and the closing price was 807.5 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded month-on-month, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory decreased, the steel mills have a demand for replenishment before the festival, and the molten iron output continued to increase slightly at a high level. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On September 19, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed down, with a decrease of 0.44%, and the closing price was 3,421 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment volume increased. The good weather in the north supports the rush-demand, but the increased rainfall in some southern regions still hinders the demand. In the short term, the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate [6] Log - On Friday, the opening price was 800, the lowest price was 800, the highest price was 808, the closing price was 805, and the daily position was reduced by 285 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10-day moving average of 803. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 813. On September 19, the spot market price of 3.9-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot market price of 4-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that the log import volume in August was 2.11 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. There is no major contradiction in the supply and demand relationship. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot transactions are weak. Pay attention to the support of the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and macro expectations and market sentiment on the price [6] Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 206 lots compared with the previous trading day. The estimated output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/2026 season is 6.91 million tons, a record high [6] Steel - Judging from the performance in the two weeks after the military parade, the steel demand trend is in line with the seasonality. This week, the molten iron output remains at a high level, but as the weather gradually cools down, the steel demand may recover to a certain extent next week, and the steel will enter the inventory inflection point. Recently, there has been a lot of market news, and the valuation of the black sector is low due to the previous decline. With the arrival of the peak season, the steel demand will continue to improve. Considering the pre-National Day replenishment, the black sector is supported. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, the steel price may rise further. In the future, attention should be paid to the peak season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Alumina - Fundamental raw materials: The rainy season in Guinea continues to affect shipments, and the subsequent domestic bauxite imports are expected to decrease, and the quotation is relatively firm. Supply: Some previously overhauled alumina production capacities have gradually resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded slightly. Although the supply of bauxite is expected to be tight, the port inventory of raw materials is still at a medium to high level, so the overall supply is still sufficient, and there is no large-scale production reduction. The supply volume has maintained a slight increase. Demand: The capacity replacement project in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has promoted a slight increase in the demand for alumina, but due to the upper limit of the aluminum industry, the demand boost is less than the supply growth. Overall, the current fundamentals of alumina are still in a state of oversupply, and the inventory has accumulated slightly [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Supply: The supply of raw material alumina is relatively sufficient, and the quotation has declined. Although the spot price of electrolytic aluminum has also回调 after the interest rate cut, the smelting profit can still be maintained at a good level due to the reduction of raw material costs, and the production enthusiasm is high. In addition, the completion of some capacity replacement projects in the electrolytic aluminum industry has led to a slight increase in the industry's production capacity, and the overall production capacity is gradually approaching the upper limit of the industry. Demand: The realization of the interest rate cut expectation has led to a slight回调 in the aluminum price. Coupled with the traditional consumption peak season and the pre-holiday stocking demand, the purchasing willingness of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increased demand [8]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, most of the analyzed futures varieties showed downward trends or were in a state of shock adjustment. The market was affected by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic events like the Fed's interest rate cut [1][2][3]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 18, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15% to 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06% to 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% to 3095.85 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31352 billion yuan, a significant increase of 7584 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index weakened, closing at 4498.11, a decrease of 52.91 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 18, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1722.8, a decrease of 17.7. The coking coal weighted index adjusted downward, closing at 1212.7 yuan, a decrease of 23.5. Coke producers' profits are okay, and after the end of production - limiting constraints, the start - up rate has rebounded. Steel mills' blast furnaces maintain the momentum of operation, and the real demand is supported. For coking coal, after the end of policy disturbances, domestic coal supply has recovered, and imports from Mongolia have returned to normal. Downstream enterprises' start - up rates have rebounded from low levels [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined on September 18. In the second half of August, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 18.21% year - on - year to 387 million tons. India plans to resume sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting from October 2025, which may put downward pressure on global sugar prices [2]. Rubber - Due to the decrease in rainfall in the Thai production area and the adjustment of spot quotes, as well as the Fed's interest rate cut and concerns about the US economic outlook, the Shanghai rubber futures declined significantly on September 18. From January to July 2025, US tire imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and China's synthetic rubber production in August 2025 increased by 7.4% year - on - year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 18, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the pressure of US soybean harvest. The market expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in the next report. Domestically, on September 18, the soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3%. The supply of domestic soybean meal is abundant, and the price is in a downward adjustment trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the LH2511 contract closed at 12830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. Recently, the enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter has increased, and the supply of standard pigs has further increased. The consumption demand has slowly recovered, but the short - term demand side is difficult to form a strong support [4]. Palm Oil - On September 18, the palm oil futures price continued to decline within the range, and the closing price of the main contract P2601 was 9304, a decrease of 1.27%. In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. From January to August, imports were 1.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8% [5]. Shanghai Copper - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, the market sentiment weakened, and the Shanghai copper price fell significantly. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, but the supply of smelters may be more affected, and the downstream demand has marginally increased. The pre - National Day inventory replenishment may support the price [5]. Cotton - On the night of September 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13715 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 177 lots compared with the previous trading day. The US dollar index weakened, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased [5]. Iron Ore - On September 18, the iron ore 2601 contract closed down 0.12% at 800 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the arrival volume has continued to decline. Steel mills still have the demand for replenishment, but due to the emission reduction requirements in Tangshan, the short - term price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 18, the asphalt 2511 contract closed down 0.35% at 3427 yuan. The asphalt supply continues to be low, the inventory continues to decline, and the demand is still weak. The short - term price is in a shock operation [6]. Logs - On September 18, the 2511 log contract opened at 809, closed at 801.5, and increased its position by 321 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. In August, log imports decreased by 24% year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [6]. Steel - On September 18, rb2601 was reported at 3147 yuan/ton, and hc2601 was reported at 3354 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in September has recovered slowly, and the transaction of high - priced resources is not good. After the speculation of coking coal and coke futures, they have entered the adjustment stage, and the price of raw fuels is still high. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate weakly [7]. Alumina - On September 18, ao2601 was reported at 2931 yuan/ton. The alumina market is still in a state of oversupply. The domestic production capacity is high, imports are increasing, and the inventory is also high. Electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement is negative. In the short term, the spot price may continue to decline [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 18, al2511 was reported at 20785 yuan/ton. After the Fed's interest rate cut, market uncertainty increased, and the risk - aversion sentiment rose. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is accumulating. The demand has slightly improved, and the price continues to decline [8].