Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high since August 2015, the Northbound 50 hit a record high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both exceeded their October 8, 2024 highs. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 11835.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 2606.20 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2764.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 519.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4239.41, up 37.06 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1693.3, down 22.8. Coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1174.0 yuan, down 34.1 [3][4] - **Other Futures**: - Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose due to stable spot prices and capital factors, despite the decline of US sugar on Friday. - Shanghai Rubber oscillated and adjusted due to large short - term gains, technical factors, and the decline of crude oil prices. - Palm Oil 2601 contract closed with a small increase, and the expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased by 34.5% compared to the same period last month. - Shanghai Copper closed slightly down 0.01%, with limited macro - guidance and increased social inventory dragging down the price, but potential restocking demand restricted the decline. - Iron Ore 2601 contract closed down 0.64% at 772 yuan, with supply tightening and high iron - water production leading to a short - term oscillating trend. - Asphalt 2510 contract closed up 0.06% at 3473 yuan, with short - term demand difficult to improve and prices oscillating. - Cotton: Zhengzhou Cotton's night - session main contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 87 lots. - Logs: The 25091 contract opened at 817, closed at 811, and decreased by 1105 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged. - Steel: rb2510 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, hc2510 closed at 3419 yuan/ton. Steel futures may face short - term pressure due to poor fundamental improvement. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 3171 yuan/ton, with supply expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year and prices oscillating. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20595 yuan/ton. The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affected the price, but the probability of a trend reversal is low [1][5][8] 2. Fundamental Information Coke - The sixth round of price increase has been implemented. The overseas demand for US Treasury bonds is resilient, with foreign investors' holdings reaching a new high in June, while India and Ireland's holdings declined. - Raw material inventory has increased. The current iron - water production is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the inventory has shifted downstream. The total coking coal inventory is increasing. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 20 yuan/ton [5] Coking Coal - The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report aims to promote a reasonable increase in prices. - The mine - end inventory has increased, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high [5] Other Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil - mill operating rate is high, with high inventory. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined, but the high price of US soybeans keeps the import cost high. There is an expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter [7] - **Pig**: It is currently the off - season for pork consumption, with weak terminal demand. The supply of suitable pigs has increased, and the overall situation is one of loose supply and demand [7] - **Palm Oil**: The expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period last month [8] - **Copper**: The social inventory increased at the beginning of the week, dragging down the price, but the potential restocking demand of downstream processing enterprises restricts the decline [8] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, and the iron - water production is at a relatively high level, resulting in a short - term oscillating price [8] - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate increased last week, but the shipment volume decreased. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is oscillating [9] - **Logs**: The import volume in July decreased year - on - year, and the futures price is affected by the increase in external quotes. The spot trading is weak [10] - **Steel**: The weekly output of five major steel products has increased for three consecutive weeks, the inventory has accumulated faster, and the apparent demand has declined to a new low since early March [11] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is high, the import window opens intermittently, and the supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year, with inventory increasing [11] - **Aluminum**: The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affects China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Considering the expected peak season in September and the expected interest - rate cut, the probability of a trend reversal is low [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On August 15, 2025, A-share market showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.60%, and ChiNext Index up 2.61%. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days, reaching 22446 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index trended stronger on August 15, closing at 4202.35, up 29.04 [2]. - The coke weighted index had a narrow - range fluctuation on August 15, closing at 1717.8, up 8.8, and the coking coal weighted index oscillated and closed at 1214.9 yuan, up 5.9 [3][4]. - The palm oil market was strong on the night of August 15, with the new main contract P2601 increasing positions and reaching new highs for the year. However, due to policy uncertainties, a phased adjustment may occur, and the market should be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [6]. - For soybeans, US soybean export sales had a net increase of 75.54 million tons as of August 7, but a large number of old - crop contracts were cancelled. Brazilian new - season soybean planting area is expected to increase. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract of soybean meal decreased by 0.63% on August 15. Although the cost of imported soybeans provides support, the high inventory limits the price increase [7][8][9]. - The live hog futures price oscillated on August 15. Currently, it is in the off - season of pork consumption, and the supply is expected to be abundant in the second half of the year, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation [9]. - The copper price is expected to gradually move up due to positive factors such as good progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, expected US interest rate cuts in September, and domestic growth - stabilizing policies. The copper market is in a tight - balance supply situation, and new - energy vehicle sales will drive copper demand [10]. - The iron ore 2601 main contract declined by 1.08% on August 15. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price is in an oscillating trend [10]. - The asphalt 2510 main contract fell by 0.49% on August 15. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. - The alumina price may continue to decline slightly in the short term due to increasing supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support [13]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has a small increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. However, the low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to improve as September approaches [13]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On August 15, the A - share market was strong. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 0.83%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11634.67, up 1.60%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2534.22, up 2.61%. The trading volume of the two markets was 22446 billion yuan, slightly down 346 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4202.35 on August 15, up 29.04 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 15, the coke weighted index closed at 1717.8, up 8.8; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1214.9 yuan, up 5.9 [3][4]. - The exchange strengthened position limits on coking coal. The 6th round of coke price increase was implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal decreased by 7.36% year - on - year, and the export of coke decreased by 28% year - on - year [5]. - Currently, the valuation is moderately high. The port coke spot price is stable, and some steel mills have a good demand for coke, but some traders are waiting and watching. The price of coking coal in Shanxi decreased, while the Mongolian coal market was strong with limited trading volume [6]. Palm Oil - On the night of August 15, the palm oil market was strong, with the new main contract P2601 increasing positions by 44000 lots, reaching a new high for the year. Considering policy uncertainties, a phased adjustment may occur, and the market should be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [6]. Soybean Meal - As of August 7, US soybean export sales had a net increase of 75.54 million tons, but a large number of old - crop contracts were cancelled. Brazilian new - season soybean planting area is expected to increase. On August 15, the M2601 main contract of soybean meal decreased by 0.63%. Although the cost of imported soybeans provides support, the high inventory limits the price increase [7][8][9]. Live Hogs - On August 15, the live hog futures price oscillated. It is currently in the off - season of pork consumption, and the supply is expected to be abundant in the second half of the year, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation [9]. Copper - Positive factors such as good progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, expected US interest rate cuts in September, and domestic growth - stabilizing policies will push up the copper price. The copper market is in a tight - balance supply situation, and new - energy vehicle sales will drive copper demand. The copper price will oscillate upwards after short - term stabilization [10]. Iron Ore - On August 15, the iron ore 2601 main contract declined by 1.08%, closing at 776 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price is in an oscillating trend [10]. Asphalt - On August 15, the asphalt 2510 main contract fell by 0.49%, closing at 3461 yuan. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. Alumina - The alumina price may continue to decline slightly in the short term due to increasing supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support [13]. Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has a small increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. However, the low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to improve as September approaches [13].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On August 14, A-share market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.46% to 3666.44, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87% to 11451.43, and ChiNext Index falling 1.08% to 2469.66. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days, reaching 2279.2 billion, up 128.3 billion from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4173.31, down 3.27 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 14, the weighted coke index closed at 1694.3, down 74.8; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1196.1 yuan, down 80.7 [2][3]. - The exchange tightened position limits on coking coal futures from August 15. The 6th round of coke price increase was implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, coking coal imports were 52.8223 million tons, down 7.36% year - on - year, with June imports at 9.1084 million tons, up 23.31% month - on - month but down 15.05% year - on - year. China's coke exports from January to June were 350,600 tons, down 28% year - on - year, with June exports at 51,000 tons, down 25% month - on - month and 41% year - on - year [4]. - Currently, the valuation is moderately high. For coke, port spot prices were stable, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1480 yuan/ton. Steel mills' high blast furnace operation maintained coke demand, but some traders were cautious after the futures price decline. For coking coal, the price of fat coal in Linfen, Shanxi, dropped 58 yuan to 1247 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with prices rising at Ganqimaodu Port, but trading volume was average [5]. Soybean Meal - On August 14, CBOT soybeans fell from a six - week high due to concerns about export demand. US new - crop soybean net sales were 1.133 million tons as of August 7, higher than expected, while old - crop net sales were - 377,600 tons, down 181% from the previous week. The domestic M2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Low Q4 soybean purchases in China raised concerns about supply shortages, and higher import costs supported prices. However, abundant imports, high refinery operation, and high inventory limited the upward space. Future focus is on weather and imports [5][6]. Live Hogs - On August 14, the live hog futures price was weak, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13,900 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. It's the off - season for pork consumption, with weak demand and low orders from major pig enterprises. Group farms' August出栏 is expected to increase, and overall supply will be abundant in the second half of the year. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and future focus is on policy,出栏 rhythm, and weight changes [6]. Palm Oil - On August 14, palm oil's upward momentum weakened, with the new P2601 contract closing at 9368 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to rise 60% to a record high, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, the lowest since 2019/20 [7]. Shanghai Copper - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the highest in three years, reducing expectations of a September interest rate cut. The Shanghai copper price fell below 79,000 yuan. It may decline to 78,500 yuan. Import supplies may increase, pressuring the premium, but tight domestic supplies near delivery will support the spot price [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,110 yuan/ton. On August 15, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 390 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 84 lots [8]. Iron Ore - On August 14, the iron ore 2601 contract fell 2.94% to 775 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals decreased, but iron ore demand remained strong due to high steel mill profitability. The price will likely fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - On August 14, the asphalt 2510 contract fell 0.54% to 3472 yuan. Capacity utilization increased, but shipments declined. Demand is weak but expected to recover. Low inventory supports the price, and it will likely move sideways in the short term [8]. Logs - On August 14, the 2509 log contract opened at 812.5, closed at 809.5, with an increase of 623 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to spot prices, imports, inventory, and market sentiment [8][9]. Steel - On August 14, rb2510 closed at 3189 yuan/ton, and hc2510 at 3432 yuan/ton. After the hype of production cuts and price increases faded, coking coal futures led black futures down. High - temperature and rainy weather weakened demand, and steel prices may decline in the short term [9]. Alumina - On August 14, the ao2601 contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. With an expected supply surplus, the market will have more available spot. Price competition between upstream and downstream will intensify, and aluminum plants will focus on inventory control [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 14, the al2509 contract closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. Expectations of Fed rate cuts pushed up the price, but low downstream demand and inventory accumulation limited the upside. After the positive sentiment fades, the price may decline. In the short term, it will likely move sideways with a downward bias [10].

Variety Views - On August 13, A-share major indices rose; Shanghai Composite Index had eight consecutive positive days, hitting a new high since December 2021. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to 3683.46, Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76% to 11551.36, and ChiNext Index rose 3.62% to 2496.50. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.1509 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 269.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4176.58, up 32.75 [1]. - On August 13, the coke weighted index fell back after hitting resistance, closing at 1722.2, down 44.8; the coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1226.6 yuan, down 37.1 [1][2]. - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward on August 13, affected by the rise of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes. Due to the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted at night [3]. - The Shanghai rubber showed an oscillatory adjustment trend on August 13. The warning of heavy rain in Thailand limited the downward adjustment space. At night, it fluctuated slightly [4]. - On August 12, palm oil prices reached a new high this year, but the upward momentum weakened. The main contract P2509 closed with an increase of 0.66%. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 increased significantly compared with the same period last month [4][6]. - On August 13, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated sown area of US soybeans, and the domestic M2601 main contract rose 2.33%. However, the high inventory of domestic soybean meal limited the upward space [7]. - On August 13, the live pig futures price trended weakly. The current low - season consumption and expected increase in supply put pressure on prices [8]. - The trading sentiment of Shanghai copper remained weak. It may decline in the short term, but the approaching traditional peak season may provide some support [8]. - On the night of August 13, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14120 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 81 lots compared with the previous day [9]. - On August 13, the main contract of log 2509 opened at 821.5, closed at 813, and decreased its position by 1073 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. The increase in foreign quotes drove up the domestic futures price [9]. - On August 13, the main contract of iron ore 2601 closed flat. The supply tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in a short - term oscillatory trend [10][12]. - On August 13, the main contract of asphalt 2510 closed down 0.03%. The demand was weak but had recovery expectations, and the low inventory supported the price, leading to a short - term oscillatory trend [12]. - On August 13, rb2510 was reported at 3222 yuan/ton, and hc2510 was reported at 3451 yuan/ton. The steel price increase slowed down and may have a narrow - range adjustment [12]. - On August 13, ao2509 was reported at 3230 yuan/ton. The short - term supply was tight, but the medium - term supply would increase due to profit - driven capacity recovery [13]. - On August 13, al2509 was reported at 20790 yuan/ton. The aluminum price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and have upward momentum in the medium term [13]. Influencing Factors Coke and Coking Coal - Coke spot prices had five rounds of increases, and the 6th round was proposed. The coking profit improved slightly, and the coking start - up rate was expected to increase. The supply of coke was tight, but the steel - coke game continued [3]. - For coking coal, the expectation of future production cuts increased. The import situation was mixed, and the demand was strong with the potential to increase prices [3]. Sugar - The increase in Brazilian sugar export shipments and the improvement of demand expectations in the physical market supported the rise of US sugar, which in turn drove up Zhengzhou sugar [3]. Palm Oil - The significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 compared with the same period last month supported the upward movement of palm oil prices [6]. Soybean Meal - The US Department of Agriculture's adjustment of soybean sown area and yield estimates affected the supply expectation. The rise in US soybean prices increased the cost of imported soybeans, but the high domestic inventory limited the upward space of soybean meal prices [7]. Live Pigs - The current low - season consumption and the expected increase in supply from group farms and the release of previously - pressed large pigs put pressure on live pig prices [8]. Copper - The supply of domestic copper increased, but the high cost of holders limited the decline of spot premiums. The approaching "Golden September and Silver October" might support copper prices [8]. Iron Ore - The decrease in global iron ore shipments and arrivals tightened the supply, while the high iron - water production and high profitability of steel mills supported the demand, resulting in a short - term oscillatory trend [12]. Asphalt - The decrease in asphalt production capacity utilization and shipments, along with weak demand but low inventory, led to a short - term oscillatory trend [12]. Steel - The slow resumption of domestic coal mines and weakening downstream procurement enthusiasm affected the coking coal market. The short - term steel price increase slowed down due to limited improvement in terminal demand [12]. Alumina - The short - term supply of alumina was affected by various factors, but the medium - term supply would increase due to profit - driven capacity recovery [13]. Aluminum - The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum was limited, and the approaching peak season and expected Fed rate cut in September might drive up aluminum prices [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On August 12, 2025, A-share major indices closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a seven - day consecutive rise and hitting a new high for the year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1881.5 billion yuan, an increase of 54.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The policies related to coal production verification have affected supply, with some coal mines shutting down. There are expectations of tightened coking coal supply and steel mill production restrictions [2]. - Due to large net short positions of speculators, there was short - covering in the US sugar market, leading to the upward movement of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract [2]. - The 90 - day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US boosted market sentiment, causing the upward movement of Shanghai rubber [3]. - The USDA lowered the forecast of US soybean production, leading to a 2.18% increase in CBOT soybeans on August 12. In the domestic market, although there is high supply pressure in the short - term, concerns about future supply shortages support the strong and volatile adjustment of soybean meal prices [3][5]. - The current low - season for pork consumption, high - temperature weather, and expected increase in group - farm pig slaughter are keeping the pig market in a state of loose supply and demand [5]. - On August 12, the palm oil market had many fundamental positive factors, and its price continued to rise [6]. - The 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce supported copper prices. The supply and demand situation made the copper price show an oscillatory trend [6]. - Positive news in the steel market, including macro - level agreements and industry - level production restriction expectations, drove steel prices to run strongly in the short term [6]. - The supply of iron ore tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in an oscillatory trend of iron ore prices [7]. - The asphalt market had low demand but was supported by low inventory, with prices oscillating in the short term [7]. - The log market had a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with weak spot trading, and prices were affected by multiple factors [7][8]. - The cotton inventory decreased, and the price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract showed certain trends [8]. - The adjustment of mineral resource policies and the tightening of the Guinean bauxite mining policy increased the risk of bauxite supply interruption, and the Shanghai aluminum market was oscillating [9]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3665.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% to 11351.63 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.24% to 2409.40 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.91% to 1069.81 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4143.82, a rise of 21.31 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 12, the coke weighted index closed at 1792.3, a rise of 80.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1292.3 yuan, a rise of 85.6 [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering in the US sugar market and an increase in spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract moved up on August 12. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in July 2025 were 3.5937 million tons, a decrease of 4.98% compared to the same period last year [2]. Rubber - The 90 - day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US boosted market sentiment. On August 12, Shanghai rubber oscillated upward. In the first half of 2025, US tire imports increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the estimated total tire shipments in 2025 increased by 0.9% compared to 2024 [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on August 12, CBOT soybeans rose 2.18%. The USDA lowered the forecast of US soybean production for the 2025/26 season. Domestically, on August 12, the M2601 main contract closed at 3091 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.62%. Although there is high supply pressure in the short - term, concerns about future supply shortages support the price [3][5]. Live Pigs - On August 12, the live pig futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 14230 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.64%. The current low - season for pork consumption and expected increase in group - farm pig slaughter keep the market in a state of loose supply and demand [5]. Palm Oil - On August 12, the palm oil price continued to rise. The main contract P2509 closed at 9362, a rise of 1.56%. From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month [6]. Shanghai Copper - The 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce supported copper prices. The supply and demand situation made the copper price show an oscillatory trend [6]. Steel - On August 12, rb2510 closed at 3258 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3484 yuan/ton. Positive news drove steel prices to run strongly in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - On August 12, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose 1.7% to 807.5 yuan. The supply tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On August 12, the asphalt 2510 main contract rose 0.57% to 3506 yuan. The low - demand but low - inventory situation made the price oscillate in the short term [7]. Logs - On August 12, the log 2509 contract had certain price movements. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The market had a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and prices were affected by multiple factors [7][8]. Cotton - On the night of August 12, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14090 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 85 contracts [8]. Alumina and Shanghai Aluminum - On August 12, ao2509 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. Policy adjustments increased the risk of bauxite supply interruption. al2509 closed at 20735 yuan/ton, and the market was oscillating [9].

Report Summary Market Performance on August 11, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market rallied with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43, and ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82. Trading volume reached 1.827 trillion yuan, up 116.7 billion yuan from last Friday. CSI 300 Index closed at 4122.51, up 17.54 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index closed at 1735.3, up 33.2; coking coal weighted index closed at 1234.7 yuan, up 37.8. Coke's 6th round of price increase started, while coking coal's spot price fluctuated. Import of coking coal decreased by 7.36% from January to June, and export of coke decreased by 28% during the same period [3][4][5] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract edged down on Monday but rebounded slightly at night due to technical factors. EU's beet production is expected to increase by 1% in 2025/26, but disease remains a concern [5] - **Rubber Futures**: Supported by Fed's rate - cut expectation and adverse weather in Thailand, Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Monday and consolidated at night. Indonesia's rubber export increased by 11.6% in H1, while Vietnam's decreased by 3.4% [6] - **Soybean Meal Futures**: CBOT soybeans rose over 2% on August 11 due to improved US export demand. US soybean export sales reached a 6 - and - a - half - month high. Domestic M2601 contract closed at 3072 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. High domestic supply and low terminal demand coexist, but rising import cost and low Q4 procurement support prices [7] - **Live Pig Futures**: LH2511 contract closed at 14140 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. Low consumption in summer, expected increase in group - farm supply, and high overall capacity lead to a loose supply - demand situation [8] - **Palm Oil Futures**: P2509 contract closed at 9218, up 2.65%. Malaysia's July palm oil export, production, and inventory increased, while import decreased [9] - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The main contract rose. Tight copper supply and increased short - term supply disruptions are positive for prices, but expected supply increase after US tariff implementation poses pressure [9] - **Cotton Futures**: Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory at Xinjiang warehouses decreased by 80 lots [10] - **Iron Ore Futures**: 2509 contract closed at 796.5 yuan, up 0.82%. Global shipments decreased last week, but demand remains resilient due to high iron - water production [10] - **Asphalt Futures**: 2510 contract closed at 3481 yuan, down 0.51%. Capacity utilization and shipments increased last week, and low inventory supports prices [11] - **Log Futures**: 2509 contract opened at 833.5, closed at 832.5, and decreased by 1404 lots. Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. Strong expectation and weak reality coexist [11] - **Steel Futures**: rb2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3465 yuan/ton. Production restrictions in Tangshan and strong coke and coking coal prices support steel prices [12] - **Alumina Futures**: ao2509 closed at 3182 yuan/ton. With increasing capacity, supply is becoming more abundant, and the market is shifting to cost - based pricing [12] - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: al2509 closed at 20700 yuan/ton. Ample supply, weak demand, and mixed economic expectations put pressure on prices [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The cotton market shows a small positive trend this week, with the main contract closing at 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week [1]. - The US plan to increase tariffs on India by 50% brings uncertainty to the Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan slows down, and the harvest in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, the low - level lint inventory decreased rapidly last week, and high temperatures continue in Xinjiang this week [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, domestic cotton de - stocking is obvious this week. Downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season, with the startup rate still declining. Enterprises are making normal restocking. Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the basis rate is around 9.1% [3]. - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production, consumption, trade volume, and beginning and ending inventories have all been adjusted downwards [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The main cotton contract closed with a small positive line this week, with a closing price of 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week [1] News Situation - The US plan to increase tariffs on India by 50% impacts Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan slows, and the harvest in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, low - level lint inventory decreased rapidly last week, and Xinjiang has high temperatures this week [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply: Domestic cotton de - stocking is obvious this week [3] - Demand: Downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season, and the startup rate is still declining, with normal restocking [3] - Inventory: Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the basis rate is around 9.1% [3] Global Supply and Demand Forecast - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production, consumption, trade volume, and beginning and ending inventories have all been adjusted downwards [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is affected by various factors including international trade policies, weather, and supply - demand fundamentals. The market shows a complex situation with price increase, supply - side changes, and weak downstream demand [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main cotton contract closed with a small positive line this week. The closing price was 13,640 yuan per ton, up 55 points from last week's close [1] 2. News Situation - The US's 50% tariff increase on India has brought uncertainty to Sino - US trade talks. The US cotton boll - setting rate lags behind the five - year average by 1%, new cotton listing in Pakistan has slowed with production estimates lowered, and the harvest progress in Brazil's main producing areas is slow. Domestically, the low - grade lint cotton inventory on the supply side decreased rapidly last week, and the temperature in Xinjiang remained high this week [2] 3. Fundamental Situation - In terms of supply, domestic cotton de - stocking was obvious this week. On the demand side, downstream textile enterprises are in the off - season with a declining operating rate and normal restocking. Cotton inventory decreased by 555 lots this week, and the cotton basis rate is around 9.1% [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market on August 8, 2025, showed a slight decline, with decreased trading volume. Various futures products have different price trends and influencing factors, including supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, and international events [1]. - The prices of different futures are affected by multiple factors such as international relations, inventory changes, production adjustments, and consumption seasons. The market trends of each product are complex and variable, and investors need to pay attention to relevant information and policy changes [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Product **Stock Index Futures** - On August 8, the A - share market's three major indices declined slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12% to 3635.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.26% to 11128.67 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.38% to 2333.96 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1710.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 115.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also underwent a correction, closing at 4104.97, a decrease of 9.70 [1]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On August 8, the coke weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1706.9, up 0.4; the coking coal weighted index was also in narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1203.7 yuan, up 3.8 [1][2]. - For coke, the fifth price increase has been implemented. The raw material inventory has rebounded, the iron - making capacity is high, and the coal mine inventory pressure has been transferred downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the average loss of 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton [3]. - For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal is 1230. The mine - end inventory is generally decreasing, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, being moderately high. Some mines will implement the "276 - working - day" system, which may lead to a decline in daily coal production [3]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Concerns about reduced sugar supply from Brazil have boosted the US sugar price. The CFTC data shows that speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 17,654 contracts to 139,137 contracts as of the week ending August 5 [3]. **Rubber** - The Thai Meteorological Department's warning of bad weather from August 10 - 13 has affected the Shanghai rubber futures, which rose slightly at night on August 8. The inventory of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has different changes [4]. **Soybean Meal** - In the international market, the excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the probability of weather speculation is low. The export sales volume of US soybeans has rebounded significantly. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans is sufficient, but the terminal demand is limited. The procurement volume of soybeans for the fourth quarter is low, causing concerns about future supply shortages [5]. **Live Pigs** - On August 8, the live - pig futures price rose slightly. In the short term, the reduction in the scale farm's slaughter volume and the intention of secondary fattening to replenish stocks support the price, but the weak consumption demand suppresses it. In the medium term, the pig supply is abundant, and the price increase space is limited [6]. **Palm Oil** - On the night of August 8, the palm oil market continued the main - contract transfer, with prices fluctuating slightly. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the previous month [6]. **Shanghai Copper** - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is over 90%, providing upward momentum for copper prices, but overseas uncertainties still exist. In terms of supply - demand, the arrival of Asian copper is expected to increase in mid - to - late August, and the low - season demand is weak, but low inventory supports the price [7]. **Iron Ore** - On August 8, the iron ore 2509 main contract fluctuated and closed down 0.19%, at 790 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, the port inventory increased slightly, and the iron - making capacity remained high. The iron ore price is in a short - term oscillatory trend [7]. **Asphalt** - On August 8, the asphalt 2510 main contract fluctuated and fell 1.58%, closing at 3478 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased last week, and the demand is affected by rainfall, but low supply and inventory provide support, so the short - term price fluctuates [7]. **Cotton** - On the night of August 8, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,670 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouse is at least 380 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 77 lots compared with the previous day [7][8]. **Logs** - On August 8, the 2509 log contract opened at 831.5, with the lowest at 823.5, the highest at 835.5, and closed at 830.5, with a reduction of 664 lots. The external price increase has driven up the domestic futures price. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with weak spot transactions [8]. **Steel** - Recently, high costs and low demand have been in conflict, causing the steel price to fluctuate. The coal mine production and inventory are decreasing, and some coking enterprises have launched the sixth price increase. The steel demand in the off - season is weak, but the steel mills' production reduction is limited due to good profits. The market is expected to be supported by the expectation of stricter coal - mine safety supervision and possible steel - mill production restrictions, and the steel price may be slightly stronger in the short term [9]. **Alumina and Aluminum** - For alumina, the price is firm, and the smelter's profit is good, so the production enthusiasm is high. The electrolytic aluminum production has increased, but the overall capacity is approaching the upper limit, so the increase is small. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory may accumulate slightly in the short term [9]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the bauxite shipment will decrease due to the rainy season in Guinea and mining disturbances, and the port inventory may also decline. The alumina price has increased, and the domestic production capacity and output have increased slightly. The overall alumina market may be in a stage of slight supply - demand increase [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No indication of the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report presents the market performance of various futures and spot commodities on August 7, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, palm oil, soybean meal, live pigs, copper, cotton, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each commodity [1][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Stock Index Futures - On August 7, A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.16% at 3639.67 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.18% at 11157.94 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.68% at 2342.86 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1825.5 billion yuan, an increase of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation, closing at 4114.67, up 1.18 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's fifth - round price increase was implemented on Monday. Driven by the rapid rise in coal prices at the cost end, coke followed the upward trend, and the coking profit returned to the break - even point. Due to the upcoming military parade, production restrictions are expected, with potential supply and demand reduction in the second half of the month. It is expected that the first - round price cut will start in mid - to late August [5]. - For coking coal, the prices of some varieties increased. The supply side saw a slight decline in mine开工 rate due to stricter safety inspections, and the demand side was relatively healthy. The basis was - 215.5, down 31 [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by Brazil's weak export data in July, the US sugar market declined slightly on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was under pressure from short - sellers on Thursday. As of August 1, India's sugarcane planting area increased compared to the same period last year, and Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of potential floods from August 10 - 12, causing the Shanghai rubber futures to rise slightly on Thursday. In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to July increased by 20.8% [6]. Palm Oil - On August 7, palm oil prices oscillated within the previous day's range. The import cost of palm oil in China decreased, and the price inversion range narrowed. There were no new purchases in the domestic market last week [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined on August 7. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected. Domestically, on August 7, soybean meal futures oscillated. There was sufficient soybean supply, but concerns about future supply shortages remained. The price will continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to US weather and import conditions [8]. Live Pigs - On August 7, live pig futures rose. The current consumption demand is weak, but short - term support comes from reduced slaughter and some secondary fattening demand. In the medium term, the market is still in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and attention should be paid to policy and slaughter conditions [9]. Shanghai Copper - Due to weak economic data and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, and the US dollar index was weak. Coupled with a warm domestic industrial product atmosphere, Shanghai copper temporarily stabilized. In early August, it may still face pressure, but the downside space is limited [9]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13665 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and China's textile and clothing exports in July decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. Logs - The futures price of logs showed a certain trend, and the spot price was stable. The futures price was driven up by the increase in the external market price. Attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, and market sentiment [11]. Steel - On August 7, steel futures prices were at certain levels. The cost of coking coal still strongly supported steel prices, but weak demand restricted the upward space. In the short term, steel prices may oscillate strongly with frequent ups and downs [11]. Alumina - On August 7, alumina futures closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable, but the market was inactive. The inventory was accumulating, and the price faced upward pressure [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 7, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20750 yuan/ton. In the short term, it was under pressure, but with the expectation of a macro - level relaxation, it has the potential to rebound after the off - season. Attention should be paid to inventory and consumption trends in August [12].