Variety Views - On July 24, A-share's three major indexes hit new highs this year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65% to 3605.73, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.21% to 11193.06, and the ChiNext Index up 1.50% to 2345.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 1844.7 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.99 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on July 24, closing at 4149.04, up 29.27 [1]. - On July 24, the coke weighted index oscillated strongly, closing at 1750.3, up 37.2 [1]. - On July 24, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1227.0 yuan, up 87.3 [2]. Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The price of coking coal has been raised, and the second - round price increase of coke spot has been implemented. The weekly start - up rate of coke enterprises has slightly declined, and supply has shrunk. In terms of demand, steel mills' profits are okay in the off - season, and pig iron production has rebounded from a high level. There is support from supply and demand, and coke enterprises' inventory has decreased [3]. - Coking coal: Some coal mines in production areas have limited output due to underground reasons, and some coal mines that were shut down have resumed production. High - frequency data shows that the upstream start - up rate has declined week - on - week, and domestic supply has shrunk. The China - Mongolia border port has resumed customs clearance. After the previous closure and improved market transactions, the port inventory has decreased, and the spot price of Mongolian coal has been raised. Although the start - up of coke enterprises has slightly declined, the increase in steel mills' pig iron production supports real demand [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the U.S. sugar's bottom - fishing and rebound on Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated higher on Thursday. Due to the effect of funds, it continued to rise at night. A commodity research report shows that the estimated sugarcane output in Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season has been adjusted down to 661 million tons (606 million tons from the central and southern regions), reflecting a decline in sugarcane yield per unit and a significant drop in output in the second half of June [3]. Rubber - Recently, heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas has affected rubber tapping, reducing raw material supply and continuously raising spot prices. Affected by this, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher on Thursday. To avoid weather risks, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing Shanghai rubber to continue to oscillate upward at night. In June 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 7.3% year - on - year to 1.01 million vehicles, indicating challenges for automobile manufacturers in the global economic environment. In the first half of 2025, cumulative EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% year - on - year to 5.58 million vehicles [4]. Palm Oil - On July 24, palm oil continued to oscillate higher, hitting new highs. The highest price was 9106, the lowest was 8938, and it closed at 9104, up 1.22% from the previous day. According to GAPKI data, affected by a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia's exports of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year, mainly driven by demand from India and China. The output of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than 4.48 million tons in April but a 7.2% increase year - on - year [4][6]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate at a high level. Macroscopically, the possible tariff agreement between the U.S. and Europe has suppressed risk - aversion sentiment. LME copper closed up after a strong oscillation overnight, which has a positive impact on Shanghai copper. However, the reduced probability of an interest - rate cut in September will put some pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, global copper miners' rush to transport to the U.S. supports the price, and the continuous decline of LME inventory also supports the price. But the cautious downstream transactions in China and the approaching end of long - term orders, along with the possible increase in spot supply, will limit the upward space of the price. Technically, on July 24, the short - term indicators of the Shanghai copper main contract were bullish, with the 5 - day moving average crossing above the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages, the MACD forming a golden cross above the 0 - axis, and the KDJ also forming a golden cross, indicating upward momentum in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - On July 24, the iron ore 2509 main contract closed down 0.55% at 811 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrival volume dropped significantly. Pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level. The policy expectations of anti - involution and important meetings have boosted market sentiment, but the recent large increase in iron ore prices may lead to high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On July 24, the asphalt 2509 main contract closed down 0.28% at 3602 yuan. The start - up rate of asphalt plants continued to decrease this period, the planned output of local refineries in August decreased, supply shrank, inventory decreased, refinery shipments increased slightly, and downstream demand improved. The short - term price will mainly oscillate [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14225 yuan/ton. On July 25, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 45 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. Logs - On July 24, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 824, with the lowest at 818.5, the highest at 835, and closed at 827.5, with a reduction of 604 lots. The pressure at high levels in the market increased. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 - 820 and the pressure at 850. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the support of spot - end prices, import data, and macro - expectations for the spot market [7][8]. Steel - On July 24, rb2510 closed at 3294 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3456 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in the off - season has strong resilience, and steel mills' profits remain at a relatively high level, so the overall output has limited room to decline. For rebar, steel mills' profits are at a relatively high level in the past two years, and their production enthusiasm is high, so the output may increase in the short term. In terms of inventory, after the price rebound, the middle and lower reaches have a certain willingness to replenish stocks, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season is lower than expected. In terms of demand, steel demand maintains resilience. With the continuous fermentation of anti - involution and the news of coking coal mine shutdown, steel prices have continued to rise, further stimulating speculative demand [8]. Alumina - On July 24, ao2509 closed at 3427 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the weekly output of alumina rebounded slightly to 1.708 million tons this week, the operating capacity rose to 89.07 million tons/year, and the start - up rate also rebounded to 80.74%. The national installed capacity decreased from 110.82 million tons/year to 110.32 million tons/year, which may be related to the "capacity reduction" signal. Under the logic of the deviation between the fundamentals and the market, it is necessary to be vigilant about whether the market's high expectations for policies are overdrawn. Once the policy implementation rhythm or intensity falls short of expectations, combined with the continuous resumption of production and the re - easing of supply and demand, the price may still decline from a high level [8][10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 24, al2509 closed at 20760 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, overseas tariffs have been confirmed and are lower than expected, reducing uncertain risks and being beneficial to the recovery of overseas demand. China's "anti - involution" policies have driven up industrial metals, and the long - term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged. Fundamentally, under the release of supply increment and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. In addition, the market's sentiment towards policies such as "anti - involution" and "high - quality development" has cooled recently, and the market has fallen after rising. The short - term aluminum price will mainly decline from a high level. Future attention should be paid to inventory and capital sentiment changes [10].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 23, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to 11059.04 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 2310.67 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1864.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index showed a strong shock on July 23, closing at 4119.77, a环比 increase of 0.81 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - On July 23, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1161.9 yuan, with a环比 increase of 105.7, and the coke weighted index closed at 1717.6, with a环比 increase of 58.8 [3][4] - For coke, good steel - enterprise profits drive some blast furnaces to resume production, high daily hot - metal output supports rigid demand, and the second round of spot price increase has started. For coking coal, the notice on production verification tightens the supply expectation, and the inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate a possible global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's dry climate may add about 3.2 million tons of sugar supply. Although the US sugar price fell, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 23, and continued to rise at night due to capital support [5] Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 23, and fluctuated slightly at night. In June 2025, the global light - vehicle annualized sales reached 93 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 2.1% to 7.73 million vehicles [6] Palm Oil - On July 23, palm oil showed a high - level wide - range shock. The highest price was 9088, the lowest was 8908, and it closed at 8994, up 0.76% from the previous day. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared with the same period last month [7] Shanghai Copper - Sino - US trade relaxation and domestic policies to stabilize the non - ferrous industry boost market sentiment, but the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations before the Fed's July meeting makes the macro - sentiment neutral. The tight supply of mainstream copper supports the price, and the market is in a tight - balance state [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14140 yuan/ton on the night of July 23. On July 24, the lowest basis quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 54 lots [8] Iron Ore - On July 23, the main contract of iron ore 2509 closed down 0.61% at 812 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrivals dropped significantly, while the hot - metal output rebounded. The price may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On July 23, the main contract of asphalt 2509 closed down 0.47% at 3594 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt plants decreased last week, and the low social inventory increased the refinery shipments. The price will fluctuate in the short term [8] Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 841.5 on July 22, with a low of 812.5, a high of 848.5, and closed at 823, with a reduction of 3299 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the spot trading was weak [8][9] Steel - On July 23, rb2510 closed at 3274 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3438 yuan/ton. The rising coking coal price drives up the steel cost, but the steel demand is hard to improve in the high - temperature off - season, and the price increase may slow down [9] Alumina - On July 23, ao2509 closed at 3355 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" policy, bauxite disturbances in Guinea, and low warehouse receipts drive the price up, but the short - term production cut probability is low, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 23, al2509 closed at 20790 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply increases slightly, the downstream operating rate is still weak, and the inventory is in a low - level shock. The current price increase is driven by policies and cost, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to policy implementation and inventory pressure [10][11]

Variety Views - On July 22, A-share's three major indexes continued to rise, hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3,581.86, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 11,099.83, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61% to 2,310.86. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4,118.96, up 33.35 [1] - On July 22, the weighted coke index remained strong, closing at 1,711.6, up 128.3. The weighted coking coal index also maintained its strength, closing at 1,084.9 yuan, up 94.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. After the first price increase by coke enterprises was implemented, they quickly initiated a second one. Coke enterprises are currently at the break-even point in production. The continuous rebound of coking coal prices has put pressure on coking enterprises, so they raised the price of coke, and steel mills have a relatively high willingness to accept it. The profitability rate of steel mills is maintained at around 60%, the profit of blast furnace rebar is about 200 yuan/ton, and the reduction of crude steel production has led to a rebound in steel prices, giving some room for the rebound of raw material prices [3] - The price of prime coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi (A10, S0.45, G70) was raised by 70 yuan to the ex-factory price of 1,210 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is running strongly. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port increased by 54 to 850 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal increased by 35 to 950 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the inventory of upstream coal mines has dropped to 3.3907 million tons, returning to a relatively reasonable level. Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, especially after the price increase, the enthusiasm of coal mines for production is high [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate that the global sugar market may face a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season due to strong monsoons increasing production in India and Thailand. Affected by this and the failure of the futures price to break through the key technical level of 17 cents, long positions were liquidated, causing the US sugar price to fall sharply on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long positions were liquidated, causing the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to decline on Tuesday. Due to short-selling pressure, the contract continued to decline slightly at night. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a month-on-month increase of about 70,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1,434.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In June 2025, China imported a total of 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 492,400 tons [3] Rubber - Heavy rainfall in the Thai rubber-producing area has raised concerns about supply, leading to continuous increases in Southeast Asian spot prices. Affected by this, short positions were liquidated, pushing up the Shanghai rubber futures price on Tuesday. Due to the large short-term increase, the price adjusted at night. In June 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. From January to June, the production increased by 2% year-on-year to 591.668 million pieces. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4][6] Palm Oil - On July 22, palm oil maintained a high-level wide-range oscillation, with the overall average price gradually increasing. The K-line closed as a positive line with a long upper shadow. The highest price of the day was 9,012, the lowest was 8,868, and it closed at 8,926, up 0.18% from the previous day. According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 to 20, 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.19% compared with the same period last month. United Plantations said that in the second quarter, the production of palm oil and palm kernels increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year-on-year respectively; the average price of palm oil increased by 5.6% to 4,361 Malaysian ringgit per ton [6] Shanghai Copper - The anti-involution trading in China continued, with strong long sentiment boosting the copper price. Technically, the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD and KDJ indicators all give bullish signals, providing support for price increases. On the supply side, the strike at a copper mine in Peru has raised concerns about supply, which also supports the copper price. However, attention should be paid to the increase in bonded warehouse inventories and the uncertainty of downstream demand. If the price fails to break through the resistance level of 81,200 yuan/ton, it may face a correction risk [7] Iron Ore - On July 22, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 2.49%, closing at 823 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrivals dropped significantly. The pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level again. Currently, the market sentiment is boosted by the anti-involution and the policy expectations of important meetings, and the short-term trend of iron ore prices will continue to oscillate slightly stronger [7] Asphalt - On July 22, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.42%, closing at 3,609 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased month-on-month. The low social inventory has led to an increase in the sales volume of refineries, and downstream demand has improved. Overall, it fluctuates narrowly following the cost of crude oil [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,235 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. On July 23, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 65 lots compared with the previous day. The growth period of cotton in Xinjiang this year is about 5 - 7 days earlier than last year [8] Logs - On July 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 843.5, with a minimum of 835, a maximum of 846.5, and closed at 838, with a daily reduction of 2,264 lots. After reaching a four-month high of 856.5, the market declined, with increased trading volume and significant position reduction, increasing market pressure. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, and the support of macro expectations for the spot market [8] Steel - On July 22, rb2510 closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,477 yuan/ton. Currently, the favorable factors in the industrial aspect of "anti-involution" and "promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" are being traded again in the market. The trading logic of the black chain has switched to the dual-drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, coupled with the support of real estate policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a work plan for stabilizing the growth of the steel industry. Attention should be paid to the matching degree between the marginal change of pig iron production and the implementation rhythm of policies [9] Alumina - On July 22, ao2509 closed at 3,513 yuan/ton. The bullish sentiment in the market mainly comes from three aspects: the continuous fermentation of the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, the limited supply of spot goods in the market, and the extremely low inventory in delivery warehouses; and the strong support from the demand side due to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In terms of trading, although the inquiries from spot-futures traders for hedging purposes are active, due to the tight supply of spot goods and the quotes of holders not meeting the expectations of buyers, actual transactions are limited. Most holders choose to postpone sales and adopt a wait-and-see attitude [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 22, al2509 closed at 20,900 yuan/ton. In China, a new plan for stabilizing the growth of the non-ferrous metal industry is about to be released, providing support for copper and aluminum. The world's largest hydropower project has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. During the off-season of consumption, the amount of ingot casting has increased, and the recent arrival of spot goods in the market has increased, replenishing market supply. The increase in aluminum prices has significantly suppressed consumption, highlighting the weakness of actual terminal demand, and there is still pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation [10]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 21, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72% to 3559.79, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86% to 11007.49, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% to 2296.88. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 128.9 billion yuan from last Friday [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 4085.61, up 27.06 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1. Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted coke index closed at 1614.2, up 79.5 [3]. - Coking coal: The weighted coking coal index closed at 1024.1 yuan, up 75.8 [4]. 2.2. Other Futures - Zhengzhou sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [5]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher during the day and higher at night. As of July 20, the total inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.28% [6]. - Palm oil: It showed a trend of rising and then falling, closing at 8910, up 0.6% [7][8]. - Shanghai copper: The price was boosted by policies, consumer demand, and supply concerns [8]. - Iron ore: The 2509 main contract rose 2.08% to 809 yuan [9]. - Asphalt: The 2509 main contract rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan [9]. - Logs: The 2509 contract reached a 4 - month high and then fell, with increased volume and reduced positions [9]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 31 lots [10]. - Steel: The rb2510 closed at 3224 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3394 yuan/ton, driven by policy benefits [10]. - Alumina: The ao2509 closed at 3386 yuan/ton, with the price rising due to policy and inventory factors [11]. - Shanghai aluminum: The al2509 closed at 20840 yuan/ton, supported by policies and demand expectations [13]. 3. Market Influencing Factors 3.1. Coal Market - Coke: Spot coking coal prices are rising, some coking plants may cut production, and a second price increase is expected next week. Steel mills' high profits support short - term coke demand [5]. - Coking coal: Domestic mines are复产 slowly, port customs clearance is low, and there is a risk of a large number of Russian coal arrivals in mid - to - late August [5]. 3.2. Other Markets - Zhengzhou sugar: Supported by Coca - Cola's formula change and domestic production data [5]. - Rubber: Affected by unfavorable weather for tapping in Southeast Asia and reduced inventory in Qingdao [6]. - Palm oil: Exports from Malaysia decreased from July 1 - 20 [8]. - Shanghai copper: Influenced by inflation, policies, consumer demand, and supply concerns [8]. - Iron ore: Global shipments decreased slightly, domestic arrivals increased, and steel mills' production remained high [9]. - Asphalt: The plant's operating rate decreased, social inventory was low, and demand improved [9]. - Logs: Import volume decreased, port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [10]. - Steel and non - ferrous metals: Supported by policies such as "anti - involution" and industry structure adjustment [10][11][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends for various commodities. Some are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy expectations and external factors such as tariffs and international market trends [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Commodity **Stock Index Futures** - On July 18, A - share major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1571.1 billion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4058.55, up 24.06 [1] **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: On July 18, the weighted coke index was strongly consolidated, closing at 1527.0, up 19.2. The coking coal price increase led to a decline in coking enterprise profits and insufficient production enthusiasm, resulting in a continuous decline in daily coke output. Although the molten iron in the off - season decreased slightly, the absolute level was at a high point in the year, supporting the daily consumption of furnace materials. The coke inventory of coking enterprises decreased, and the market was optimistic with expectations of price increases [1] - Coking Coal: On July 18, the weighted coking coal index remained strong, closing at 943.2 yuan, up 23.8. Some coal mines had limited production due to underground reasons, and the supply recovery was slow. During the Nadam Fair, Mongolian coal imports were restricted, and the port inventory decreased. As spot transactions improved, coke - steel enterprises increased their inventories, and the futures price fluctuated strongly [2] **Zhengzhou Sugar** - The news that Coca - Cola changed its formula to use cane sugar in the US market supported the futures price. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 18. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China imported 1.0508 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29% year - on - year. As of July 15, speculators reduced their short positions in ICE US raw sugar futures for the second consecutive week [2] **Rubber** - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted on July 18. As of July 18, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,916 tons, a decrease of 673 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2050 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 40,824 tons, an increase of 402 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons [3] **Shanghai Copper** - In the short term, the shortage of the copper ore supply and low processing fees support the price. However, there is an expectation of increased global copper mine production, and supply pressure may gradually appear in the long term. The off - season demand is weak and may continue. The US tariff policy is an important uncertain factor. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the upper pressure level around 79,000 and the lower support level around 77,000 [3][4] **Cotton** - On the night of July 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,230 yuan/ton. On July 21, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 53 lots compared with the previous day [4] **Log** - The 2509 contract opened at 838 on July 18, with the lowest at 824, the highest at 846.5, and closed at 828.5, with a decrease of 625 lots in positions. The market reached a four - month high and then declined, with increased trading volume. The support level is 800 - 820, and the pressure level is 850. From January to June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. The port shipment volume decreased, and the spot trading was weak [4] **Steel** - Policy signals of "anti - involution" production restrictions and expanding domestic demand have led to an increase in the expectation of supply - side contraction in the second half of the year. The black - series futures led the increase, driving up the spot price. However, in the coming week, if there is no new positive news, the pressure for futures long - positions to take profits will increase. After profit recovery, the willingness of electric - arc furnaces to resume production has increased, and the weekly output may stop falling and increase slightly. It is expected to maintain a range - bound trend [5] **Alumina** - The domestic bauxite port inventory is gradually increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Due to the increase in spot and futures prices, smelters' production willingness has increased, and the operating capacity has grown. Although the increase in alumina prices has increased the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants, the high aluminum price still provides good profits, and a capacity replacement project in Yunnan supports the demand for alumina. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is stable [5] **Shanghai Aluminum** - Major producers maintain normal production, and some expanded production capacities are being released. The operating capacity is at a high level. Due to the off - season, the ingot - casting volume has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand from traditional industries is weak, and although emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries are developing rapidly, their demand - pulling effect is limited at present. The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak [6]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On Thursday (July 17), China's A-share market saw all three major indices rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5394 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index strengthened in a volatile manner, closing at 4,034.49, up 27.29 points [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 17, the weighted index of coke showed strength, closing at 1,526.5, up 15.0 points. The weighted index of coking coal regained strength, closing at 935.1 yuan, up 16.5 yuan. In the coke market, the spot price at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. Mainstream steel mills accepted the first price increase proposed by coke enterprises, but coke enterprises were still operating at a loss, with cautious raw material procurement and squeezed production inventory. In the coking coal market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi, increased by 40 yuan to 1,300 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 yuan to 785 yuan/ton. Domestic coal mines were gradually resuming production, and the three major ports resumed customs clearance on July 16 after a 5 - day closure, but customs clearance was expected to remain low due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia until July 21 [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar futures closed slightly lower in a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract strengthened on Thursday with the support of funds and continued to rise slightly in the night session. ICRA predicted that the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India would see a sugar production of 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season's 29.6 million tons [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand affected rubber tapping, leading to a decrease in raw material supply and an increase in Southeast Asian spot prices. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise in the night session due to the increase in tire factory operating rates and speculation on weather conditions. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year, and in June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [3]. Soybean Meal - On July 17, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the net increase in US soybean export sales in the week ending July 10 was 271,900 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - growing areas reduced the risk of yield reduction, posing a resistance to price increases. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures were strong on July 17. The high arrival volume of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates led to large soybean meal production, but feed and breeding enterprises' purchases were limited, increasing the supply pressure in the spot market. However, the increase in US soybean prices and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums would support the price from the import cost side [4]. Live Pigs - On July 17, the main live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 14,060 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, leading to more active selling by farmers. The terminal market was in the off - season, with weak demand. The stable recovery of the sow inventory indicated medium - to - long - term supply pressure, and the pig price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - On July 17, palm oil futures maintained a high - level oscillation with a rising bottom and slightly hit a new high. The price closed at 8,796 yuan, up 0.85%. After the US agreed to reduce the tariff on Indonesian palm oil from 32% to 19% (lower than Malaysia's 25%), Indonesia was expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia was still negotiating with the US government to achieve a "win - win" situation [6]. Shanghai Copper - In June, the US PPI was lower than expected while the CPI rose, showing a divergence in inflation between the consumer and production sides. Uncertainties in the US external tariff policy and the President's attitude towards the Fed Chairman affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, the global copper mine supply shortage was difficult to ease in the short term, and the increasing demand from the new energy industry would support the copper price. However, the uncertainty of the US import tariff policy on copper and the increase in bonded - area copper inventory might put pressure on the price. In the short term, Shanghai copper was expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,320 yuan/ton. On July 18, the base - price quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 58 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 17, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 799.5, with the lowest price of 799.5, the highest price of 834, and closed at 833, with an increase of 9,956 lots in positions. It had the largest increase in three months with a significant increase in trading volume. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot prices of radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's log and sawn - timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year, and port shipments decreased. The supply - demand relationship was relatively balanced, but spot trading was weak [7][8][10]. Steel - On July 17, the rb2510 rebar futures contract closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,292 yuan/ton. This week, rebar production continued to decline, inventory slightly increased, and apparent demand significantly decreased. It was the traditional off - season for rebar consumption, with more seasonal maintenance in steel mills and some shifting production to other products. The terminal demand was weak due to low project funds, resulting in a weak market. Currently, the rebar market had weak supply and demand, with slightly increased but still low inventory, and the short - term futures price was expected to move in a narrow range [10]. Alumina - On July 17, the ao2509 alumina futures contract closed at 3,089 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina reached a historical high, and new capacity continued to be released, leading to a significant supply increase exceeding consumption demand. In the third quarter, new capacity would be put into production, and the existing output would reach a new high, with an expected supply surplus. Market inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The increase in warehouse receipts also indicated sufficient physical supply and weakened spot support [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 17, the al2509 Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,415 yuan/ton. Uncertainty about the Fed Chairman's position and the US tariff policy affected market sentiment, weakening the upward momentum of the aluminum price. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic main consumption areas was 492,000 tons, decreasing by 9,000 tons from Monday but increasing by 26,000 tons from the previous Thursday. In the short term, the aluminum price was expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [11].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.22% to 10720.81, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.22% to 2230.19. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1442 billion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 4007.20, down 11.86 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 16, the coke weighted index fluctuated, closing at 1502.6, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index also fluctuated, closing at 912.0 yuan, down 14.4. For coke, due to the rising price of coking coal, the number of loss - making coke enterprises increased, and the supply continued to shrink. A price increase was about to be implemented, and short - term coking profits were expected to recover. But with the strong rise of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still faced loss pressure and might raise prices again. The demand from downstream steel mills was supported, and the inventory structure improved. For coking coal, domestic supply increased as mines resumed production, the Mongolian port was about to resume customs clearance, and the arrival of Australian coal increased this week. The import profit of overseas coal was restored, and subsequent shipments might increase [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rebound of US sugar and weak spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, it continued to fluctuate narrowly. In India, the water level of 161 major reservoirs reached nearly 52% of the total capacity, higher than last year and the past ten - year average. The southwest monsoon was active, and the sown area of monsoon crops increased by 11% compared with last year [2]. Rubber - Thailand's meteorological department warned of heavy rain from July 19 - 21, which might slow down rubber tapping and reduce supply, supporting the futures price. However, weak demand prospects dampened market sentiment. Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025. Affected by these factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday and continued to rise slightly at night. In June, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from 2024. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from last year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 16, CBOT soybean futures prices rose due to hopes of increased US export demand. The good growth of US soybeans reduced the risk of production cuts. Brazil's soybean exports in July were expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 16, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2977 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The arrival of imported soybeans and the oil mill operating rate remained high, but feed enterprises' purchases were limited, and the supply pressure at the spot end increased. There was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September, which supported the far - month contract [5]. Live Pigs - On July 15, live pigs trended weakly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14010 yuan/ton, down 1.68%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, and farmers were more willing to sell. The terminal market was in the off - season, and demand was weak. The inventory and performance of sows were recovering, and there was still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [5]. Palm Oil - On July 16, palm oil maintained a high - level volatile trend, with increased amplitude. It closed at 8722, up 0.16%. From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [6]. Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected US CPI data led to the rebound of the US dollar index, which restricted the rebound of non - ferrous metals. However, the inventory accumulation in non - US regions was limited, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference in China weakened the downward momentum of Shanghai copper. It was expected to fluctuate between 77500 - 78500 yuan/ton. If it could hold the support at around 78000 yuan, it might continue to be slightly stronger; otherwise, it might test the 77500 - yuan support [6]. Logs - On Wednesday, the 2509 log contract opened at 788, with a low of 787, a high of 797, and closed at 797, with an increase of 2549 lots in positions. Attention was paid to the support at 785 - 790 and the resistance at 800. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January - June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. Port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [6][7]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton. On July 17, the minimum basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 73 lots compared with the previous day [7]. Steel - On July 16, rb2510 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3253 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affected downstream construction, weakening steel demand and increasing supply - demand pressure. However, the cost supported steel prices. In the short term, steel prices were expected to adjust narrowly [7][8]. Alumina - On July 16, ao2509 closed at 3111 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price was stable, the trading activity was average, holders were reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises made rigid purchases. The trading volume was limited [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 16, al2508 closed at 20435 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. With the macro - tariff concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the supply side changed little, demand weakened, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased over the weekend, so it was under pressure at high levels [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market on July 15, 2025 showed mixed trends among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.73%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1612.1 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The short - term supply - demand relationship of coking coal and coke is good. Although the iron water is falling, the demand support remains as the total amount is still high, and the inventories of coking plants and mines are significantly decreasing [5]. - For Zheng sugar, influenced by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on July 15 [5]. - The domestic soybean meal market has increasing supply pressure at the spot end, but there is support for the far - month contract due to the large order gap of imported soybeans after September [8]. - The terminal market for live pigs is in the off - season, with insufficient downstream demand. The medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists, and the futures market lacks upward momentum [8]. - Palm oil maintained a high - level oscillating trend on July 15, reaching a recent high and then quickly falling back [9]. - The price of Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate. It may fluctuate in the range of 77800 - 78500 yuan/ton. Standing above 78000 yuan/ton may lead to further upward exploration, while falling below 77800 yuan/ton may trigger a short - term correction [9]. - The domestic construction steel market is in the off - season, and the short - term supply - demand weak pattern is difficult to change, with prices likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. - The price of alumina is supported to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the medium - term supply is loose, and the upward space is limited [12]. - The spot market for Shanghai aluminum has a light trading volume, and the overall trading momentum is insufficient [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3505 points, down 0.42%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10744.56 points, up 0.56%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2235.05 points, up 1.73%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1612.1 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4019.06, up 1.4 [1][2]. Coking Coal and Coke - On July 15, the coking coal weighted index closed at 927.9 yuan, up 2.4, and the coke weighted index closed at 1522.3, down 10.1. The fundamentals are strong, with significant inventory reduction. The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing, while the demand is weakening as the iron water falls. The inventories of coking plants and mines are actively decreasing by 7.22% and 8.83% respectively [3][4][5]. Zheng Sugar - Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on July 15. In the 2024/2025 sugar - cane crushing season, the sugar - cane planting area in Yunnan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, the first stop of the decline in 10 years [5]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber rose first and then fell on July 15, closing slightly higher. It was affected by rainfall in the Thai production area in the morning and then fell due to the expectation of weak future consumption. At night, it oscillated slightly lower due to short - selling pressure. Vietnam's rubber exports in June increased by 47.8% month - on - month, and from January to June, the exports decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 15, the CBOT soybean futures price closed slightly lower. The weather conditions in the US Midwest are favorable, and the US soybean good - quality rate is higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 15, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2978 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The supply pressure at the spot end is increasing, but there is support for the far - month contract [6][8]. Live Pigs - On July 15, the main live - pig contract LH2509 closed at 14250 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The terminal market is in the off - season, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists, with the futures market lacking upward momentum [8]. Palm Oil - On July 15, palm oil maintained a high - level oscillating trend, reaching a recent high and then quickly falling back. The closing price was 8708 yuan, down 0.46% from the previous trading day [9]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. It may continue to oscillate in the range of 77800 - 78500 yuan/ton. Standing above 78000 yuan/ton may lead to further upward exploration, while falling below 77800 yuan/ton may trigger a short - term correction [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 15, the main Zheng cotton contract closed at 13945 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 21 lots compared with the previous day [10]. Logs - On July 15, the 2509 log contract opened at 786.5, with the lowest at 785.5, the highest at 793.5, and closed at 790, with a reduction of 823 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's imports of logs and sawn timber decreased by 12% year - on - year [10]. Steel - On July 15, the rb2510 steel contract closed at 3114 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3259 yuan/ton. The actual spot transaction price followed the decline, and the short - term supply - demand weak pattern is difficult to change, with prices likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. Alumina - On July 15, the ao2509 alumina contract closed at 3165 yuan/ton. The price is supported to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the medium - term supply is loose, and the upward space is limited [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 15, the al2508 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20430 yuan/ton. The spot market has a light trading volume, and the overall trading momentum is insufficient [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the black chain has switched to a dual - wheel drive of industrial bullish factors and valuation repair, and the prices of coke and coking coal are in a low - valuation repair market [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was affected by multiple factors and showed different trends during the day and at night [3] - The price of Shanghai rubber was affected by inventory and weather, showing a downward trend during the day and an upward trend at night [3] - The price of palm oil continued to rise on July 14 but did not break through the previous high [4][5] - The price of soybean meal in the international market fell slightly, while the domestic market rose, and the supply pressure on the spot side increased [6] - The price of live pigs fell, with short - term supply pressure and lack of upward driving force [7] - The price of Shanghai copper was under pressure, and it was difficult to judge whether it had ended the correction [7] - The price of cotton decreased in inventory, and the base - price quotation was at a minimum of 430 yuan/ton [7] - The price of logs was concerned about the 790 - 800 pressure range, and the spot price was stable [8] - The price of steel was expected to be strong in the short term due to macro - favorable news [8] - The price of alumina was supported in the short term but faced supply - surplus pressure in the long term [9] - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell, with slow inventory reduction and weak spot recovery [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 14, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10684.52 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45% to 2197.07 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1458.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.4 billion yuan from last Friday. The CSI 300 index closed at 4017.67, a rise of 2.86 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On July 14, the coke weighted index closed at 1532.2, a rise of 18.9; the coking coal weighted index closed at 933.6 yuan, a rise of 14.5. The demand support for both decreased slightly, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, US sugar rose on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly during the day on July 14 but fell at night due to factors such as the possible shift of India's ethanol quota to grains [3] Shanghai Rubber - Affected by the increase in rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the continuous increase in the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port, the Shanghai rubber fell on July 14 but rose at night due to concerns about Thailand's weather. As of July 13, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Palm Oil - On July 14, palm oil continued to rise but did not break through the previous high. From July 1 - 10 in Malaysia, the palm oil yield increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. In June in India, the import volume of palm oil increased by 60%, and the total import volume of vegetable oil increased by 30.6% [4][5] Soybean Meal - In the international market, the price of CBOT soybeans fell slightly on July 14. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal M2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2992 yuan/ton. In June, China's soybean imports decreased by 11.9% compared with May. The supply pressure on the spot side increased, but there was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September [6] Live Pigs - On July 14, the main live pig LH2509 contract fell 0.42% to 14285 yuan/ton. The terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the short term [7] Shanghai Copper - Affected by US tariff policies, Shanghai copper was under pressure. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee showed a stable trend, but the mine - end tension continued [7] Cotton - On the night of July 14, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13805 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was at a minimum of 430 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 43 lots [7] Logs - On July 14, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 787.5, closed at 788, and increased positions by 470 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [8] Steel - On July 14, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to macro - favorable news, the price was expected to be strong in the short term [8] Alumina - On July 14, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3145 yuan/ton. It was supported in the short term but faced supply - surplus pressure in the long term [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 14, the al2508 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20415 yuan/ton. The inventory reduction slowed down, and the spot recovery was weak [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 11, 2025 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18, with an intraday increase of 1.3%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **CSI 300 Index**: It closed at 4014.81, up 4.78 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 922.8 yuan, up 27.7. The price of main - coking coal in Lvliang area increased by 50 yuan to 1100 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 to 754 yuan/ton and Mongolian No. 3 clean coal rising by 3 to 843 yuan/ton. Mines are gradually resuming production, and upstream inventory pressure is decreasing [3][4][5]. - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke closed at 1524.1, up 41.5. The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan to 1260 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises plan to raise prices for the first time due to production losses and price rebounds in black varieties [3][5]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, US sugar rose on Friday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly overnight. Brazil's expected sugarcane planting area in 2025 is 9.168506 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% decrease from the previous year. The production is estimated to be 692.988023 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 1.9% decrease from the previous year [5]. 2.3. Rubber - Due to the increase in the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, long - positions were liquidated, causing the Shanghai rubber to fall overnight. As of July 11, the inventory of natural rubber was 213,589 tons, up 817 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,690 tons, down 160 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 40,422 tons, up 4,638 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,994 tons, up 7,258 tons [6]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - **International Market**: On July 11, the CBOT soybean futures price fell slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US soybean harvest to 4.335 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, lower than the 4.34 billion bushels in June. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 11.93 million tons, a 24% increase year - on - year [7][8][9]. - **Domestic Market**: On July 11, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2976 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. Domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large soybean meal production. Feed and breeding enterprises have certain inventories and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. After September, there is a large gap in imported soybean orders, providing support for the forward market [9]. 2.5. Live Pigs - On July 11, the main live pig contract LH2509 closed at 14,345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered, and the overall slaughter rhythm has accelerated. The terminal market is in the off - season, and the demand is insufficient, so the pork price lacks support. In the medium and long term, there is still supply pressure [10]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Affected by the expected 50% tariff on Canadian copper products by the US, market speculation is suppressed. The supply side shows an increasing trend, the demand side is weak, and the global exchange inventory is increasing, putting pressure on prices. The copper price is in a balanced state between macro - negative and industry - positive factors and will likely maintain a volatile pattern [11]. 2.7. Cotton - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,905 yuan/ton. As of July 14, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 32 lots compared with the previous day [11]. 2.8. Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 787, with a low of 784.5, a high of 794, and closed at 786, with a reduction of 387 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The port log inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable. Attention should be paid to spot prices and import data [12]. 2.9. Steel - Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the black sector has risen recently, and steel prices have maintained a volatile and strong trend. However, as the basis converges and some areas start production restrictions, there is still pressure on black sector prices in the future. Steel prices will likely maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term [12]. 2.10. Alumina - Guinea has entered the rainy season, and the ore shipment volume has decreased significantly this week. The supply side of alumina has both production cuts and restarts. In the long term, there is an expectation of supply surplus, but in the short term, the low inventory of futures and the shortage of deliverable resources may drive prices up [12][13]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and the ingot casting volume is tight. The low - inventory pattern supports aluminum prices, and the sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed [13].