Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On January 12, 2026, the A - share market showed strong performance, with significant increases in major indices and record - high trading volume. Different futures varieties had diverse price movements influenced by various factors such as market liquidity expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy news [1]. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On January 12, A - share major indices continued to perform strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index had a 17 - day consecutive increase, reaching a new high in over a decade. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% to 4165.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.75% to 14366.91 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.82% to 3388.34 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 36450 billion yuan, a significant increase of nearly 5000 billion yuan from the previous trading day, setting a new record [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on January 12, closing at 4789.92, a rise of 30.99 compared to the previous day [2]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: The weighted index of coke oscillated and sorted on January 12, closing at 1771.6, a rise of 23.8. The market's expectation of loose liquidity increased. After the end of environmental protection, coking operations resumed, and the average profit per ton of coke declined as coal prices stopped falling. The daily average output of hot metal was 229.5 tons, an increase of 2.07 tons from last week, indicating a bottom - up trend in hot metal demand [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal oscillated and strengthened on January 12, closing at 1240.5 yuan, a rise of 50.7. The market's expectation of loose liquidity increased during the week, and the risk appetite significantly improved. The general rise of commodities drove the low - valued black varieties to make up for losses. There was news of eliminating backward production capacity and reducing the output of thermal coal in 2026, which triggered market speculation on policy - based production restrictions. In January, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased. There was an expectation of restocking in mid - to late January that had not been fulfilled [3][4]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by the slight decline of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Monday. At night, due to short - selling pressure, the contract oscillated and declined. As of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 153.09 million tons, a decrease of 56.73 million tons or 27.03% compared to the same period last year. The global sugar market supply - demand pattern is expected to change from a supply shortage of about 200 million tons in the 2024/25 period to a supply surplus of about 700 million tons in the 2025/26 period [4]. **Rubber** - Affected by capital, Shanghai rubber oscillated widely, first falling and then rising, closing slightly higher on Monday. At night, due to the increase in the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao, Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted. As of January 11, 2026, the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, an increase of 1.98 million tons or 3.62% from the previous period [4][5]. **Palm Oil** - On January 12, after the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) announced December data with bright export figures, palm oil futures rose rapidly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 8724, a rise of 0.48% from the previous day. In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a decrease of 5.46% month - on - month; exports were 1.3165 million tons, an increase of 8.52% month - on - month; apparent demand was 331,000 tons, a slight decrease from 374,000 tons in the previous month; and inventory was 3.05 million tons, with an estimated inventory range of 3 - 3.1 million tons [5]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on January 12, CBOT soybeans fell sharply due to a bearish USDA supply - demand report. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report showed that the estimated soybean production in the US in the 2025/26 period was 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 90 million bushels from December, while export estimates were reduced by 600 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. Domestically, on January 12, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.14%. The oil refinery's operating rate continued to recover rapidly this week, and the output of soybean meal was expected to increase. The current inventory of soybean meal in oil refineries was at a relatively high level compared to the same period of the year, and the supply pressure was large. The restart of the auction of imported reserve soybeans further suppressed the upward space of soybean meal prices [5]. **Live Hogs** - On January 12, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11735 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.3%. In the first half of this month, the supply of medium - and large - sized hogs of appropriate weight decreased slightly, and some farmers showed a mentality of reducing supply to support prices, which tightened the market supply in the short term. However, pig enterprises may still advance the slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the subsequent supply pressure remains. The current seasonal consumption such as pickling and sausage - making in China continues, but the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, and there is a short - term "gap period" [5]. **Shanghai Copper** - Shanghai copper rose strongly. The main 2602 contract closed at 103800 yuan/ton. The macro - environment saw an increase in the expectation of Fed easing, a weakening US dollar, and geopolitical disturbances, which led to capital flowing into the metal sector. Globally, the supply of copper mines was tight and lacked elasticity, and the demand from new energy and AI provided support. Domestically, downstream consumption was dull before the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulated moderately [5]. **Cotton** - On Monday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14685 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 380 lots compared to the previous trading day. Downstream yarn mills and textile enterprises purchased as needed [6]. **Iron Ore** - On January 12, the main iron ore 2605 contract oscillated and closed higher, with a rise of 0.92% to 822.5 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased month - on - month, the arrival volume increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, steel mills had restocking needs, and the hot metal output continued to rise, so the supply - demand structure improved. In the short term, iron ore prices were in an oscillating trend [6]. **Asphalt** - On January 12, the main asphalt 2603 contract oscillated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.25% to 3157 yuan. The current asphalt supply remained at a low level, inventory accumulated, and the middle - and downstream procurement was cautious, with a significant decrease in demand. Supported by the crude oil cost, asphalt prices oscillated in the short term [6]. **Logs** - The main log 2603 contract opened at 772 on Monday, with a minimum of 772, a maximum of 776.5, and closed at 773, with an increase of 47 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price in Jiangsu was 740 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [6][7]. **Steel** - On January 12, rb2605 closed at 3165 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3311 yuan/ton. The rising prices of raw fuels strengthened the cost support for steel prices, and mainstream steel mills' price - supporting measures promoted the rise of steel prices. On the other hand, the demand for steel in the off - season continued to decline, and the supply - demand pressure increased, so steel prices may not continue to rise. In the short term, steel prices may first rise and then fall, oscillating within a range [7]. **Alumina** - On January 12, ao2605 closed at 2866 yuan/ton. The domestic operating capacity of alumina remained at a high level, and there was no sign of long - term production reduction, so the supply surplus pattern continued, and prices were under pressure. Based on the 5 - dollar reduction in the long - term contract price of Guinea's ore in the first quarter, the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan regions would drop to about 2650 yuan/ton. On the consumption side, although the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia had been put into operation, they were in the early stage, and the demand increase was limited [7]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - On January 12, al2603 closed at 24650 yuan/ton. Domestically, the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1 may trigger the rush - work demand in the domestic photovoltaic industry, which may improve the demand for photovoltaic frames and brackets and support aluminum prices. Fundamentally, the supply side was operating normally, and social inventory continued to accumulate. The demand side showed a cooling trend, with downstream buyers being cautious and traders reducing purchases [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on January 9, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16 - day consecutive rise and reaching over 4100 points, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations. For example, the prices of copper,生猪, etc. are influenced by different factors and show different trends [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 9, the three major A - share indexes continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.92% to 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15% to 14120.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 3327.81 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31526 billion yuan, an increase of 3261 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - On January 9, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1198.0 yuan, down 7.7 from the previous day, and the coke weighted index closed at 1749.6, down 32.0 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the EU carbon tariff has increased the cost of steel exports to the EU, the supply - side coke enterprise start - up has increased, and the total inventory has accumulated; the demand - side blast furnace start - up has also increased, and the daily average pig iron output has increased. For coking coal, domestic mine production capacity has recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance is relatively sufficient, and the clean coal inventory has accumulated, while the downstream steel - coke load has increased, but the coke enterprise profit loss has expanded [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - US sugar futures prices fell slightly due to the prospect of supply surplus last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract showed a volatile consolidation trend. As of the week ending January 6, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,654 to 170,756 [4]. Rubber - Affected by short - selling pressure, Shanghai rubber futures prices fell last Friday. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 3345 tons to 120950 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3900 tons to 104490 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 2015 tons to 59270 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1007 tons to 56952 tons [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, China has purchased nearly 10 million tons of US soybeans, reaching 80% of the negotiated purchase plan. Brazilian soybeans are mostly sown, and early - maturing soybeans are entering the harvest period. It is estimated that Brazil's soybean exports to China in 2026 will be 77 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from 2025. - Domestically, on January 9, the soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week. High - level soybean meal inventory will hinder price increases [6]. Live Pigs - On January 9, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11770 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The group farms have completed their annual slaughter plans, and the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises in January has been reduced. The demand side has strong seasonal consumption, which supports the price in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [7]. Shanghai Copper - Last Friday, the Shanghai copper main contract showed an upward trend, closing at 102220 yuan/ton. The macro - level has a strong easing expectation, and the supply of global copper mines remains tight. Although it is currently in the consumption off - season, emerging industries bring long - term demand growth. It is predicted that global copper demand will increase by 50% in 2040 [8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14490 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased compared with the previous trading day. The downstream yarn mills' purchasing power has weakened [8]. Iron Ore - On January 9, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed down 0.73% at 814.5 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [8]. Logs - On January 9, the log 2603 main contract opened at 780.5, with a lowest of 771, a highest of 780.5, and closed at 774.5, with a decrease of 258 lots in positions. The spot - end support needs to be concerned [8]. Asphalt - On January 9, the asphalt 2603 main contract closed up 0.51% at 3171 yuan. The current asphalt supply is at a low level, the inventory has accumulated, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the demand has decreased significantly. Supported by the cost of crude oil, the short - term price shows a volatile trend [10]. Steel - The current supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are stable, with low production, low consumption, and low inventory. After the New Year's Day, the building materials will enter the winter storage market. The plate is still restricted by high inventory, and the inventory pressure remains after the steel mills resume production. The black commodities are strong in the short term, but the fundamentals need to be tested later [10]. Alumina - The bauxite price has slightly declined, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, and the supply has slightly decreased. The demand for alumina has increased slightly due to the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The raw material alumina price is low, and the electrolytic aluminum plant's theoretical profit is good, with a positive production start - up sentiment. The domestic electrolytic aluminum new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is relatively stable. Due to the off - season, the downstream new orders have decreased, and the aluminum ingot inventory has continued to accumulate [10].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 8, 2026 - **Stock Market**: The three major A-share indices showed a mixed trend. The Shanghai Composite Index ended with a 0.07% decline at 4082.98 points after a "15-day consecutive gain." The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.51% to 13959.48 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.82% to 3302.31 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2826.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Futures Market**: - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 Index continued to adjust, closing at 4737.65, down 39.01 [2]. - **Energy Futures**: The coke weighted index closed at 1766.3, up 43.3, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1191.1 yuan, up 52.6 [2][3]. - **Agricultural Futures**: - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract opened higher but closed slightly up after a late - session decline. Brazil's sugar exports in December 2025 increased by 2.8% year - on - year [4]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures adjusted slightly lower on Thursday and continued to decline at night due to a drop in tire factory operating rates [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. The main contract P2605 closed at 8612, up 0.58% [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on January 8. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [5]. - **Pork**: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11720 yuan/ton, down 0.55% [5]. - **Metal Futures**: - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed sharply lower at 101220 yuan/ton, down 2.76%. The trading volume was 3.035 million lots, and the open interest was 2.041 million lots [5]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14710 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventories increased by 140 lots [5]. - **Logs**: The main contract of logs 2603 closed at 778.5, with a daily reduction of 258 lots [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2605 main contract closed down 0.37% at 813 yuan [7]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2602 main contract closed down 0.76% at 3117 yuan [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3168 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3317 yuan/ton [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2863 yuan/ton [7]. - **Aluminum**: The al2602 contract closed at 23725 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The fourth - round reduction in the spot purchase price of coke has been implemented. Coking enterprise profits have declined, but the overall production remains stable. The demand for coke from steel mills is weak due to low blast furnace profits. For coking coal, domestic production has increased as mines in major producing areas have resumed production, while the demand from downstream coking enterprises is weak, and most coal prices have declined slightly [4]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's increased sugar exports in December 2025 indicate a potential short - term demand recovery, which boosted the US sugar price and influenced the Zhengzhou sugar futures [4]. - **Rubber**: The decline in tire factory operating rates has put pressure on the rubber futures price [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints, and the B50 biodiesel road test has started, with plans to implement it in the second half of this year [4][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the international market, US soybean export sales decreased, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase. In the domestic market, high - level soybean inventories and expected abundant supply in the first quarter are due to large - scale US soybean purchases and Brazil's soybean harvest [5]. - **Pork**: In the short term, the supply pressure has decreased as some farms have reduced their slaughter plans, and the demand from the pickling and enema market has supported the price. However, in the long term, the supply pressure remains [5]. - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar, weak overseas demand expectations, increased domestic copper inventories, and under - expected terminal demand have put pressure on the copper price [5]. - **Logs**: Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market, including price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [5][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments, increased port inventories, and the expected increase in iron production due to improved steel mill profitability have led to a volatile iron ore price [7]. - **Asphalt**: The expected reduction in asphalt supply from local refineries and uncertain raw material supply due to the South American geopolitical conflict, along with weak downstream demand, have resulted in a volatile asphalt price [7]. - **Steel**: The black futures market has shown an upward trend, but steel mills' low - level production and traders' inventory - digestion strategies have led to a cautious market [7]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina remains excessive, and the cost support is weak due to the expected increase in bauxite supply [7]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - market sentiment has cooled slightly, but the non - ferrous metal market remains at a high level. The supply of aluminum is normal, and the demand is improving [7]. 3. Market Outlook and Suggestions - **Soybean Meal**: Monitor South American weather conditions and soybean arrival volumes [5]. - **Pork**: Pay attention to the changes in the number of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms, and the demand during the pickling season [5]. - **Logs**: Focus on the support from the spot market [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 7, 2026, the A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 14 consecutive daily gains, while the CSI 300 index adjusted. Different futures varieties also had diverse price trends, influenced by various factors such as supply - demand, international market conditions, and macro - economic situations [1][2] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4085.77, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to 14030.56, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31% to 3329.69. The trading volume of the two markets reached 28,818 billion yuan, an increase of 492 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4776.67, down 14.03 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 7, the coke weighted index closed at 1774.5, up 131.6. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1165.8 yuan, up 87.3. Coke inventory turned to slight destocking. The price drivers include winter - storage replenishment demand and South American macro - situation changes. Coking coal supply decreased, coke supply slightly increased, demand improved with the resumption of hot - metal production, and inventory changes varied [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of the Brazilian real and other factors, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract rose slightly on Wednesday. As of December 31, 2025, Yunnan had produced 39.23 million tons of sugar with a production rate of 11.34%, and sold 28.14 million tons with a sales rate of 71.72%. Guangxi had produced 194.19 million tons of mixed sugar, sold 88.48 million tons, with a sales rate of 45.56% [4] Rubber - Due to concerns about wet weather in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, Southeast Asian spot prices continued to rise. Shanghai rubber rose on Wednesday and adjusted at night. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a 16% month - on - month decrease and a 13% year - on - year increase [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on January 7, CBOT soybean futures rose. Exporters sold 336,000 tons of US soybeans to China. Brazil is expected to have a bumper harvest, and its December soybean exports increased 69% year - on - year. Domestically, the M2605 contract rose 1.26% to 2811 yuan/ton. Last week, the soybean crushing of oil mills slowed down, and the imported soybean inventory increased slightly [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11,785 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The supply pressure at the beginning of January decreased, but there was still a possibility of early slaughter before the Spring Festival. The demand was strong, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improved, but the long - term supply pressure remained [5] Palm Oil - On January 7, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate within a range and closed slightly higher. The main contract P2605 closed at 8562, up 0.73%. Malaysia's palm oil production in December was estimated to decrease 4.64% to 1.84 million tons [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened at 104,480 yuan/ton, closed at 103,410 yuan/ton, with a high of 105,500 yuan/ton and a low of 102,330 yuan/ton. It rose 0.11%. The core drivers included supply disruptions, low TC/RC, Fed rate - cut expectations, and rising domestic PMI, but high prices inhibited consumption, and inventory increased [5] Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,870 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 225 lots. The new import tariff quota policy boosted the domestic imported cotton market, and the sales of bonded cotton at ports increased [6] Iron Ore - On January 7, the iron ore 2605 main contract rose 4.09% to close at 828 yuan. The global iron ore shipment was high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. With the improvement of steel - mill profitability and the end of blast - furnace maintenance, the iron - water output was expected to rise, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On January 7, the asphalt 2602 main contract fell 0.13% to close at 3151 yuan. The supply of asphalt from local refineries in January was expected to decrease, and the South American geopolitical situation increased the uncertainty of raw - material supply. With weak downstream demand, the short - term price was volatile [6] Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 776, closed at 782, with a daily increase of 961 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to spot - end support, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7] Steel - On January 7, rb2605 was at 3187 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was at 3332 yuan/ton. The cost of steel decreased slightly, and some steel mills resumed production. With the increase in coke and iron ore futures, the short - term steel price rebounded, but the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season might limit the rebound space [7] Alumina - On January 7, ao2605 was at 2938 yuan/ton. The spot market trading volume increased. Enterprises might have a stronger willingness to cut production, and the production - cut expectation would support the price to stabilize and fluctuate [7] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 7, al2602 was at 24,360 yuan/ton. The macro - situation was positive, and the non - ferrous metals continued to rise. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulation slowed down, and the demand improved slightly [8]

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Performance on January 6, 2026 - A-shares showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 13-day consecutive increase, reaching a new high since July 2015. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.50% to close at 4083.67, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.40% to 14022.55, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75% to 3319.29. The trading volume of the two markets reached 28326 billion yuan, an increase of 2651 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4790.69, a increase of 72.95 [2]. 2. Futures Market Conditions 2.1. Stock Index Futures - The A-share market's strong performance led to positive sentiment in the stock index futures market [1]. 2.2. Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted index showed narrow - range fluctuations, closing at 1654.7, a decrease of 11.8. Four consecutive rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the market may discuss a fifth - round cut. The profit of coking enterprises is mostly at the break - even point, and the expected loss area of coking enterprises may expand [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index was slightly adjusted, closing at 1096.2 yuan, a decrease of 0.1. After the New Year's Day, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal quickly recovered, while the domestic mine operating rate decreased as expected. The pit - mouth auction situation improved marginally, and steel and coking enterprises replenished stocks appropriately [3][4]. 2.3. Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar and the increase in spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract closed slightly higher on Tuesday. Due to the influence of funds, it continued to rise at night. Traders expect commodity index funds to buy a large amount of sugar during the annual re - balancing period starting on January 8 [4]. 2.4. Rubber Futures - Affected by the weather warning in Thailand's rubber - producing areas and the increase in global capital markets, the spot price in Southeast Asia increased. The Shanghai Rubber futures contract closed slightly higher on Tuesday and continued to rise at night. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate last week [4][5]. 2.5. Palm Oil Futures - On January 6, palm oil fluctuated in a narrow range, closing at 8500, a 0.14% increase from the previous day. From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 34.48% compared with the same period last month, while exports increased by 31.12% [5]. 2.6. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on January 6. Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high, and Argentina's soybean sowing progress is good, strengthening the expectation of a loose global soybean supply. Domestically, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2776 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills increased slightly last week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased [5]. 2.7. Live Pig Futures - The live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11810 yuan/ton on January 6, a 1.29% increase. The supply pressure at the beginning of January decreased, and the demand side was strong, but the long - term supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [5]. 2.8. Shanghai Copper Futures - The main contract of Shanghai Copper reached a new high, with both trading volume and open interest increasing. The macro - environment is favorable, and the supply at the mine end is tight, but there are risks of weak downstream demand and inventory accumulation [5][6]. 2.9. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15030 yuan/ton at night on Monday. Cotton spinning enterprises purchase cautiously, and the cotton inventory increased by 706 lots compared with the previous trading day [6]. 2.10. Iron Ore Futures - The iron ore 2605 main contract closed up 0.69% at 801 yuan on January 6. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 2.11. Asphalt Futures - The asphalt 2602 main contract closed down 0.35% at 3144 yuan on January 6. The supply of asphalt from local refineries is expected to decrease in January, and the raw material supply is uncertain, but the price will fluctuate due to weak downstream demand [6]. 2.12. Log Futures - The log 2603 main contract opened at 771, closed at 774, and increased its open interest by 25 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [6][7]. 2.13. Alumina Futures - The ao2605 contract closed at 2818 yuan/ton on January 6. The supply decreased due to the maintenance of a roasting furnace in Guizhou, and the demand from Inner Mongolia's electrolytic aluminum enterprises was limited. The market trading was dull [7]. 2.14. Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The al2602 contract closed at 24335 yuan/ton on January 6. The macro - environment is favorable, but the downstream demand is weakening [7]. 2.15. Steel Futures - The rb2605 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3263 yuan/ton on January 6. The iron ore inventory at Australian and Brazilian ports increased, and some steel mills are expected to resume production in January. The steel market supply - demand pressure may increase, and the steel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview on January 5, 2026 - A-shares had a good start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 12 - day consecutive rise and reclaiming the 4000 - point mark. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38% to close at 4023.42, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24% to close at 13828.63, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.85% to close at 3294.55. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2567.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 501.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] 2. Index Performance - The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4717.75, a环比 increase of 87.81 [2] 3. Commodity Futures 3.1 Coke and Coking Coal - On January 5, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1647.6, a环比 decrease of 49.4. The coking coal weighted index trended weakly in a volatile manner, closing at 1080.0 yuan, a环比 decrease of 33.3. The fourth round of price cuts by steel mills for coke has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. The supply side of coke shows increased production by coke enterprises and inventory accumulation, while the demand side sees rising blast furnace operation and increased daily pig iron output. For coking coal, the spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1235 yuan/ton on the futures market. The capacity utilization rate of mines and coal washing plants has decreased, while Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, leading to clean coal inventory accumulation. Steel and coke production loads have risen, but coke enterprises remain in a loss - making state [2][3][4] 3.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the decline in US sugar prices and the reduction in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward in the morning session, then rebounded slightly and closed slightly higher due to the boost from the strong stock market. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. It is expected that Thailand's 2025/26 annual sugar cane output will be 93 million tons, with an estimated range between 78 million and 108 million tons [4] 3.3 Rubber - As the peak rubber - producing season in Southeast Asia enters the second half, the pressure of spot supply will gradually ease. Coupled with the political turmoil in Venezuela affecting Southeast Asian spot quotes, which trended higher, the Shanghai Rubber futures contract oscillated upward on Monday. At night, it oscillated slightly higher. From January to November 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 2.419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [4] 3.4 Soybeans and Soybean Meal - For the week ending December 25, US soybean export sales for the current market year increased by 19% to 1.7777 million tons, with net sales to the Chinese mainland reaching 396,400 tons. Brazil has basically completed soybean sowing, and early - maturing soybeans are about to enter the harvest season. The current weather conditions in Brazil's soybean - producing areas are favorable, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. Most analysis institutions estimate Brazil's soybean output to be over 177 million tons, putting pressure on US soybean exports. As of December 30, Argentina's soybean sowing rate was 82%, and the sown soybeans are growing well. On January 5, the domestic soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2754 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Currently, domestic soybean port and oil mill inventories are at relatively high levels, and oil mill operating rates remain high, ensuring stable soybean meal output. However, the estimated soybean arrival volume in January 2026 is only 5 million tons, a significant reduction from the previous period, which may gradually ease the supply - side pressure [5] 3.5 Live Pigs - On January 5, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11,660 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. On the supply side, large - scale pig farms have completed their annual plans and are slowing down in January, while small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a temporary shortage of medium and large - sized pigs. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausages are booming, and terminal consumption is strong, effectively supporting pig prices. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of the live pig market has improved marginally, boosting prices to fluctuate strongly. However, in the long - term, the supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [5] 3.6 Palm Oil - On January 5, after the New Year's opening, domestic palm oil futures declined due to the weak performance of the overseas oil market during the holiday, erasing the pre - holiday gains. The P2605 contract closed with a negative K - line, with a high of 8600, a low of 8414, and a close of 8488, down 1.12% from the previous day. As of January 2, 2026 (Week 1), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7400 tons (1.01%) from the previous week and an increase of 225,000 tons (44.85%) from the same period last year [5] 3.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper contract opened at 99,450, reached a high of 101,380, a low of 99,150, and settled at 100,420, up 3110 from the previous settlement. The trading volume was 1.51 million lots, and the open interest was 2.163 million lots. Macroeconomic factors include the Fed's easing expectations and mild domestic stimulus, creating a positive sentiment. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the US tariffs, hoarding, and production - cut expectations have strengthened the narrative of supply shortage. The rise in LME copper prices has boosted the domestic market [5] 3.8 Cotton - On Monday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton. Cotton textile enterprises are cautious in purchasing, buying as they need. Cotton inventory increased by 406 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] 3.9 Iron Ore - On January 5, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed up 0.95% at 797 yuan. Currently, global iron ore shipments are at a high level. Although the arrival volume has decreased, port inventories continue to accumulate. As steel mills' profitability improves and the end - of - year blast furnace maintenance nears completion, pig iron output is expected to stabilize and rise. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [5] 3.10 Asphalt - On January 5, the asphalt 2602 main contract closed up 3.95% at 3133 yuan. The supply of asphalt from local refineries is expected to decrease in January. Coupled with the intensifying geopolitical conflicts in South America, which have increased the uncertainty of raw material supply, the tightening supply and rising costs support asphalt prices. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [6] 3.11 Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, reached a low of 772, a high of 783.5, and closed at 772.5, with an increase of 29 lots in open interest. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 740 yuan/cubic meter and 730 yuan/cubic meter respectively. There are no major contradictions in the supply - demand relationship. Future price trends will depend on spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - economic expectations [6] 3.12 Steel - On January 5, rb2605 closed at 3104 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3248 yuan/ton. As some steel mills' blast furnaces resume production and pig iron output increases, iron ore prices have been fluctuating at high levels recently. The coking coal market continues to weaken, suppressing coke prices. In the off - season, the supply - demand balance in the steel market continues, and raw material prices show different trends. The market sentiment is mainly wait - and - see, and steel prices may adjust slightly [6] 3.13 Alumina - On January 5, ao2605 closed at 2770 yuan/ton. The progress of production resumption and new capacity launch by domestic alumina enterprises has accelerated, and the expectation of oversupply continues to strengthen, putting pressure on alumina prices. On the demand side, the high operating rate of electrolytic aluminum supports rigid demand, but the purchasing pace has slowed down. Downstream customers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs, and although spot quotes are firm, trading volume is low. Inventory continues to increase due to oversupply [6] 3.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 5, al2602 closed at 23,645 yuan/ton. The positive macro - economic sentiment has led funds to flow into non - ferrous metals, resulting in a general rise in the non - ferrous metals market. Aluminum has temporarily deviated from its industrial product attributes, and its resource circulation attributes have increased, weakening the pressure of seasonal demand and inventory accumulation. Therefore, aluminum prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, production is normal, and social inventories have accumulated. On the demand side, the pressure continues to increase. The purchasing and sales sides have shrunk, with more purchases by traders but less by downstream and terminal customers. Large - scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain level of demand, with moderate demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials sectors, while the consumption pressure in other sectors continues to increase [6]

国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 31 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指 11 连阳收官。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.09%， 收报 3968.84 点；深证成指跌 0.58%，收报 13525.02 点；创业板指跌 1.23%，收报 3203.17 点。沪深两市成交额 20659 亿，较昨日缩量 958 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 31 日回调整理。收盘 4629.94，环比下跌 21.34。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 31 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1691.8，环比下跌 18.5。 12 月 31 日焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1112.5 元，环比上涨 8.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货三轮提降落地后，焦企出现小幅亏损，叠加前期环保检查影响，钢联数据显示上周样本焦企 产能利用率下降，焦炭日均产量下滑。需求，钢联数据显示钢厂铁水产量环比继续下降，但周度降幅收窄。 焦煤：临近年末，因完成生产任务减产煤矿数量增加，高频数据显示矿方开工率持续下降，国内煤炭供应环 比 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 30, 2025 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index almost closed flat with a "ten - day consecutive gain", closing at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **CSI 300 Index**: It fluctuated and consolidated on December 30, closing at 4651.28, a环比 increase of 11.91 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: The coke weighted index had a narrow - range shock, with a closing price of 1710.2, a环比 increase of 9.7; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1113.9 yuan, a环比 increase of 14.2 [2][3]. 2. Commodity Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Port coke spot market prices declined. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Tangshan, and Shijiazhuang regions initiated the fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on January 1, 2026. Coke production was relatively stable, and steel mills still purchased on - demand [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of main coking raw coal in Linfen, Shanxi increased by 25 yuan to 610 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 15 yuan to 955 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 3 clean coal increased by 5 yuan to 1050 yuan/ton. Some coal mines began to control production near the year - end, and the market was in a weak and volatile state [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar had a narrow - range shock and a small gain on Monday. Affected by the holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar futures had an oscillatory trend and a small increase on Tuesday. The 2026 January domestic sugar sales quota in India decreased by 500,000 tons compared to 2025, and Indonesia planned to import about 3.1 million tons of sugar in 2026 [4]. Rubber - Affected by the holiday effect, Shanghai rubber futures had an oscillatory trend and a small decline on Tuesday, and a narrow - range shock and a small decline at night [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures slightly declined on December 30. Brazil's good rainfall was conducive to soybean growth, and multiple institutions raised or maintained their production forecasts. Domestically, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.14% increase. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the inventory increased by 7.72% week - on - week [5]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11790 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.64% increase. In the short term, the supply pressure was weakened, and the demand was strong, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure was still not fundamentally alleviated [5]. Palm Oil - On December 30, palm oil rebounded in the range. The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures prices rose, and the market sentiment was boosted by the strong performance of Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil and the increasing demand [5]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper (main contract 2602) had a high - level correction, with a 2.36% decline in price. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The inventory increased, and the decline was mainly due to profit - taking and cautious downstream purchases [5]. Cotton - The main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14570 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday. Cotton - spinning enterprises purchased on - demand, and the inventory increased by 127 lots [5]. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 778, with a closing price of 776 and an increase of 21 lots in open interest. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship was relatively stable [6]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined on December 30, with a 0.44% decline. The global iron ore shipment increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron ore price was in an oscillatory state in the short term [6]. Asphalt - The main asphalt contract 2602 oscillated and rose on December 30, with a 1.47% increase. The capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory accumulated, the shipment volume increased, and the price oscillated in the short term [6]. Steel - On December 30, rb2605 was reported at 3134 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3282 yuan/ton. The macro - policy was expected to be "double - loose", which boosted the market sentiment. However, the steel market supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the price might oscillate in a narrow range in the short term [6]. Alumina - On December 30, ao2605 was reported at 2751 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina ore supply was stable, the import supply was expected to increase, the demand was limited, and the market was in a surplus state [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 30, al2602 was reported at 22565 yuan/ton. The macro - sentiment release ended, and the aluminum market declined. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulated, and the demand pressure increased [6].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 29, 2025, A - share major indices showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a nine - day consecutive gain. Different futures varieties had diverse market trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3965.28, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49% to 13537.10, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.66% to 3222.61. The trading volume of the two markets was 2139.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4639.37, a decrease of 17.87 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On December 29, the weighted coke index was in a correction phase, closing at 1674.6, a decrease of 21.6. The weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1080.3 yuan, a decrease of 11.6. Coke has had 3 rounds of price cuts with further cuts expected. Domestic coking coal supply is at a seasonal low, while Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port has high - level customs clearance and accumulating inventory. As of October, China's imported coking coal in 2025 reached 98.869 million tons, a 4.8% year - on - year decrease, and the export of coke was 6.2189 million tons, a 14.05% year - on - year decrease [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the adjustment of US sugar on Friday and the reduction of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fell on Monday. Indonesia aims to increase its sugar production to 3 million tons in 2026 [4] Rubber - Due to short - term large gains and holiday effects, Shanghai rubber adjusted and closed slightly lower on Monday. The inventory increase in Qingdao affected its night - session performance. In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1%. As of December 28, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 524,800 tons, a 1.87% increase [4][5] Palm Oil - On December 29, palm oil rebounded and then fell back. The P2605 contract closed with a negative line. As of December 26, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 734,100 tons, a 4.87% week - on - week increase and a 38.93% year - on - year increase [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on December 29. US soybean export sales increased, but the high - yield pressure of South American soybeans restricted the rebound. Domestically, the M2605 contract closed at 2774 yuan/ton on December 29, a 0.57% decrease. Although there are concerns about import supply, the current supply - demand of soybean meal remains loose [5] Live Pigs - On December 29, the LH2603 contract closed at 11,715 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The supply pressure has been alleviated in the short term, and demand is good, but the medium - to - long - term supply pressure still exists [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2602 contract opened high, reached a new high, and then fell. The inventory showed an obvious accumulation trend. The morning rise was due to factors such as the record - high of London copper, while the afternoon decline was due to profit - taking and the weakening of the non - ferrous sector [5] Iron Ore - On December 29, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 2.58%, closing at 796.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased, the port inventory increased, and the terminal demand was low in the off - season. However, the iron - water output increased slightly, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On December 29, the Asphalt 2602 contract rose 0.23%, closing at 3008 yuan. The capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory accumulated, and the short - term price was in a volatile trend [6] Logs - The Log 2603 contract opened at 778, with a daily reduction of 5 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and future price trends depend on factors such as the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6] Cotton - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 14,445 yuan/ton on the night of December 29. Cotton - spinning enterprises replenished inventory as needed, and the inventory increased by 232 lots compared with the previous trading day. The futures prices of cotton and cotton yarn rose from December 22 - 26, and relevant government policies were issued to guide industrial transfer [6] Steel - On December 29, the rb2605 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3287 yuan/ton. The profitability of steel mills increased slightly, and the iron - water output stabilized. The cost still supports the steel price, but the demand is weak. The short - term steel price is expected to be strong, while the medium - term price may fluctuate within a range [6] Alumina - On December 29, the ao2605 contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton. The supply of alumina is in an over - supply situation with increasing inventory, and the demand is weak. The spot price is on a downward trend [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On December 29, the al2602 contract closed at 22,570 yuan/ton. Positive macro - policies support the long - term demand for aluminum, but the current demand is restricted by high prices and environmental protection. The short - term price will be in a volatile trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the A - share market showed a general upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight - day consecutive increase. The trading volume of the two markets expanded, indicating active market trading [1]. - Different futures varieties have distinct price trends and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some varieties are affected by supply and demand, international market conditions, and policy expectations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 26, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to close at 3963.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54% to close at 13603.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.14% to close at 3243.88 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated on December 26, closing at 4657.24, a month - on - month increase of 14.7 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 26, the coke weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1707.9, a month - on - month decrease of 15.6. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1104.8 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 11.0 [2][3]. - For coke, port spot prices were stable, supply was increasing as coking plants actively operated, but demand was weak as steel mills had low profitability and only made necessary purchases. For coking coal, prices in some regions changed, supply was tightened due to a coal mine accident, and demand was weak as steel mills had a low acceptance of high - priced coal [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the holiday, the US sugar market had light trading volume and closed slightly lower on December 26. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract continued to fluctuate and consolidate at night. As of November 30, the sugarcane crushing volume in northern and northeastern Brazil was 32.5 million tons, a 9.4% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a narrow - range fluctuation and closed slightly higher at night on December 26. As of December 26, the inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [5]. Palm Oil - Due to the continuous strengthening of crude oil, palm oil became a more attractive raw material for biodiesel. On December 26, palm oil futures in Malaysia and the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose, and the weekly line showed the first positive line in three weeks. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 25 increased by 41.25% compared to the same period last month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the sowing of soybeans in Brazil was almost completed, and the sowing progress in Argentina reached 70%, leading to a high yield expectation that limited the rebound of US soybean prices. However, China's purchase plan provided support. Domestically, on December 26, the M2605 main contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The supply - demand relationship of soybean meal remained loose, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On December 26, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11645 yuan/ton, up 1.61%. The short - term supply pressure was relieved as group pig enterprises completed their annual targets and farmers were reluctant to sell. The demand was strong due to curing and New Year's Day stocking. The short - term price was expected to be strong, but the long - term supply pressure still existed [5]. Shanghai Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut pushed up the copper price. The demand in traditional fields was weak, but the new energy and AI industries provided support. However, there was a risk of a high - level correction [5]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 778, with a low of 771, a high of 781, and closed at 776.5 on December 26, with a reduction of 139 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [5][6]. Iron Ore - On December 26, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up 0.71% at 783 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals decreased, port inventories increased, and terminal demand was low in the off - season. However, steel mill profitability improved, and iron water output increased slightly. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - On December 26, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down 0.03% at 2995 yuan. The capacity utilization rate increased, inventories accumulated, and shipments increased. The downstream demand was stable, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate [7]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14475 yuan/ton at night on December 26. Cotton spinning enterprises replenished stocks as needed, and the inventory increased by 227 lots. The prices of different types of cotton from different regions were provided [7][8][9][10]. Steel - The domestic steel market was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The core contradiction was between short - term policy - driven sentiment and long - term fundamental pressure. Steel production was affected by environmental protection and low profitability, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the macro - expectations for next year [10]. Alumina - The impact of seasonal factors on imported ore from Guinea weakened, and port inventories increased slightly. Supply was expected to decrease under policy guidance as the industry had high - level production and excess inventory. Demand was stable as domestic electrolytic aluminum production was steady [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The low price of alumina ensured good smelting profits for aluminum plants, and the overall production was active. Supply increased slightly as some electrolytic aluminum projects were put into operation. Demand weakened in the off - season, and inventories accumulated slightly. Affected by positive macro - expectations, the aluminum price remained high and fluctuated [11].