品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（6 月 4 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.42%，收报 3376.20 点；深证成指涨 0.87%， 收报 10144.58 点；创业板指涨 1.11%，收报 2024.93 点。沪深两市成交额达到 1.15 万亿，较昨日放量 116 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 4 日强势，收盘 3868.741，环比上涨 16.73。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 4 日焦炭加权指数超跌反弹，收盘价 1368.0 元，环比上涨 73.2。 6 月 4 日，焦煤加权指数止跌震荡，收盘价 770.4 元，环比上涨 51.5。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 5 日 星期四 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦煤：基本面，供应宽松，矿山生产持稳，本期精煤库存延续增加。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】因短线大幅较大受技术面影响美糖周二探底回升。因短线跌幅较大与美糖止稳等因素提振郑糖 2509 月合约周三止稳反弹。郑糖 2509 月合约夜盘波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收高。据 CFTC 公布的最新周度持仓报告显示， 截止 5 月 27 日当周，对冲基金及大型投机客持 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 4 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（6 月 3 日）A 股三大指数集体小幅上扬，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.43%，收报 3361.98 点； 深证成指涨 0.16%，收报 10057.17 点；创业板指涨 0.48%，收报 2002.70 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11414 亿，较 上周五放量 22 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 3 日震荡趋强，收盘 3852.01，环比上涨 11.78。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 3 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1300.3 元，环比下跌 14.3。 6 月 3 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 721.3 元，环比下跌 22.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦企亏损幅度略有扩大，高频数据显示焦炭日均产量环比小幅下滑，焦化产能宽松，焦炭供应弹性较 大。需求，钢联数据显示上周铁水产量周环比持续下降 1.69 万吨，焦炭供需双降，需求端边际转弱。钢厂对后 市需求信心不足，现货端二轮提降落地。 焦煤：近期主产地部分煤矿因井下因素限产，煤矿开工率环比小幅回落，但整体供应保持平稳宽松。进口， 蒙煤 ...

1. Market Performance Summary - On May 30, A-share three major indices collectively pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.47% to 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% to 10040.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% to 1993.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1139.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and sorted out on May 30, closing at 3840.23, down 18.47 from the previous day [1]. - The coke weighted index was weak on May 30, closing at 1309.3 yuan, down 28.1 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained weak, closing at 728.3 yuan, down 39.5 from the previous day [1]. 2. Product - Specific Analysis Futures Index - The A - share market showed a collective decline on May 30, with reduced trading volume [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Coke enterprises suffered small losses, with short - term supply remaining stable. Steel mills had a driving force to reduce production in the off - season, leading to a decline in real demand for coke. Coke enterprises saw inventory accumulation, and the second round of price cuts was implemented [1]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines in the main production areas limited production, and the import inventory at the China - Mongolia border accumulated again. The real demand for coking coal declined as the blast furnace hot metal output peaked and declined [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Affected by factors such as the year - on - year decline in sugar production in the first half of May in Brazil's central - southern region and the rise in crude oil prices, the US sugar fluctuated slightly higher during the holiday. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of May was 2408000 tons, a 6.8% decline from the same period last year [2]. Rubber - The rubber - tapping season in Cote d'Ivoire, Vietnam, and Thailand led to an increase in spot supply. Uncertainty in US tariff and trade policies and weak US economic data affected market sentiment, causing the Japanese rubber futures price and Southeast Asian spot quotes to decline during the holiday [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market rose continuously last week, but gave back some gains on the Friday night session. The increase in production in May in Malaysia narrowed, the increase in exports expanded, and the inventory pressure eased. The domestic palm oil market had weak supply and demand, and the origin palm oil was still the key factor [3][4][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures were weak on June 2. Ample Brazilian soybean supply suppressed prices. Domestically, with the increase in soybean arrivals, the soybean inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal inventory was expected to increase. The short - term demand for soybean meal increased limitedly [4][5]. Live Pigs - On May 30, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The breeding end's slaughter rhythm changed, and the overall market was in a pattern of loose supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm [6]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper was in a situation of long - short entanglement. The supply side had a tight expectation, while the demand side entered the off - season, but some terminal demands showed good performance [6]. Iron Ore - On May 30, the iron ore 2509 main contract closed down. Overseas shipments decreased, and the port inventory continued to decline. The iron ore market showed a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On May 30, the asphalt 2507 main contract oscillated and declined. The capacity utilization rate and shipment volume decreased, and the market was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, showing a volatile trend in the short term [7]. Cotton - Last week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13275 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the growth of cotton seedlings in Xinjiang was generally good, but there were some problems in some areas [7]. Logs - The 2507 log contract showed certain characteristics on May 30. The spot price had some support, and the futures price rebounded. The market entered the off - season, with weak demand and little change in the supply - demand relationship [7][9]. Steel - The US export tax ruling event reversed again, and the market sentiment was affected. The short - term possibility of steel mill production reduction was low, and the terminal demand was limited. The overall market was considered weak [9]. Alumina - Guinea revoked the exploration licenses of some mining companies, affecting the supply of bauxite. The domestic demand for alumina remained relatively stable, and the fundamentals were in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable, and the demand decreased slightly as the market transitioned from the peak consumption season to the off - season [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate continued to decline. The cost support weakened, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to improve, putting downward pressure on the price [11].

Variety Views - On May 29, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to close at 3363.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24% to close at 10127.20 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.37% to close at 2012.55 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1185.4 billion yuan, an increase of 175.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on May 29, closing at 3858.70, a rise of 22.46 [1] - On May 29, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1332.9 yuan, a decrease of 22.2 compared to the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 760.5 yuan, a decrease of 30.9 [1] Factors Affecting Futures Prices - For coke, the second round of price cuts has officially started. In the short term, coking coal continues to offer concessions, and coke enterprises have a weak drive to cut production. Steel mills' profitability rate continues to expand, and the inflection point of molten iron production cut may have appeared. Considering the current good profits of steel mills, the decline space of molten iron is limited, and steel mills have a rigid demand for coke procurement. However, the cost support of coke has loosened, and it is difficult for coke prices to stabilize [2] - For coking coal, the sales of coking coal are not smooth, and there is a phenomenon of full warehouses. Some mines have taken production cut actions, but large-scale production cuts have not occurred yet. The profits of downstream coking enterprises are damaged, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventory is poor. This week, the molten iron production has significantly declined, and the short-term demand for coking coal has weakened. The inventory pressure at the mine level is relatively large. In terms of imports, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the port remains high, and the inventory in the supervision area is piling up [2] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the global weather is conducive to production recovery. The dry weather in Brazil is conducive to accelerating the harvest speed, while the wet weather in India and Thailand is helpful for the growth of sugarcane crops. Affected by the expectation of improved global production prospects, the US sugar oscillated and declined on Wednesday. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot quotations, the Zhengzhou sugar contract 2509 oscillated downward on Thursday [2] - For rubber, due to the large short-term decline, affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber stopped falling and rebounded on Thursday. The 20 rubber performed stronger than natural rubber due to the decrease in the inventory of the futures exchange. Affected by short sellers, Shanghai rubber oscillated and slightly declined at night. In the first four months of 2025, the total export volume of Thai natural rubber and mixed rubber was 1.573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, while that of Vietnam was 450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% [2] Palm Oil - On May 29, palm oil continued its recent rebound, strongly surging to a high in recent weeks. The main contract P2509 closed with a positive K-line. The highest price of the day was 8198, the lowest was 8062, and the closing price was 8190, a rise of 1.41% compared to the previous day. It is expected that the palm oil production in Malaysia in May will still be at a high level. From May 1 - 25, the palm oil production in southern Malaysia increased by 0.7% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase in the same period in the past five years was 8.6%. It is expected that the production in May will increase by about 2% month-on-month. In terms of exports, shipping agency data shows that from May 1 - 25, the export volume of palm oil increased by 7 - 11% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase in the same period in the past five years was 9.0%. It is expected that the export of Malaysian palm oil in May will increase by about 10% month-on-month. Overall, it is expected that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of May will continue to rise, possibly around 2 million tons [3][5] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on May 29, CBOT soybean futures trended weakly. Agricultural consulting firm Datagro raised the soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/2025 season from 171.2 million tons to 172 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in Brazil in May will reach 14.03 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 14.52 million tons. The Buenos Aires and Rosario Grain Exchanges said that the expected dry and cold weather in the next few days will help Argentine farmers harvest soybeans. In the domestic market, on May 28, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The main contract M2509 closed at 2954 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.27%. As the arrival volume of soybeans increases, the soybean inventory continues to rise, and the operating rate of oil mills nationwide has increased significantly. With sufficient soybean supply in the second quarter, the soybean meal inventory tends to rebound. Downstream feed enterprises have completed short-term inventory replenishment, and the short-term increase in soybean meal demand is limited. Overall, the soybean meal market is under the expectation of loose supply, and the upward space of prices is limited. Short-term focus should be on the arrival volume of soybeans [6] Live Pigs - On May 29, the live pig futures price oscillated and rebounded. The main contract 2509 closed at 13640 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.59%. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have inventory procurement needs. However, with the significant increase in domestic temperature and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, there are many alternative consumption options, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has changed. Group pig enterprises have completed their slaughter plans well, and the slaughter pressure at the end of the month has been alleviated. After the continuous decline of medium and large pigs, many large-scale pig enterprises have taken price stabilization measures, and the willingness to sell has slightly decreased. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level and the production efficiency has improved. The market is generally in a pattern of loose supply. Short-term focus should be on the change in the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [7] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper continued to oscillate strongly, but the fluctuation was limited. Fundamentally, the LME copper inventory decreased on a single day, and the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained at a low level. The global visible inventory is at the 25% quantile level of the same period in history, providing support for prices. However, the demand expectation is weak, and there are still macro uncertainties, making it difficult to provide more upward momentum. The narrow - range oscillation state of Shanghai copper continues [7] Iron Ore - On May 29, the main contract 2509 of iron ore oscillated and rose, with a rise of 1.29% and a closing price of 707 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore in this period has declined, the arrival volume has increased slightly month-on-month, and the port inventory has continued to decrease. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the molten iron production has declined for two consecutive periods at a high level. Iron ore shows an oscillating trend in the short term [7] Asphalt - On May 29, the main contract 2507 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.51% and a closing price of 3514 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt in this period continued to decline month-on-month, and the shipment volume decreased month-on-month. With the arrival of the rainy season in the southern region, the terminal demand may be suppressed. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Asphalt shows an oscillating trend in the short term [8] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13260 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on May 30, at the designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market, the lowest basis quotation was 390 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 52 lots compared to the previous trading day. The cotton planting in the United States is progressing slowly due to the drought [8] Logs - On May 29, the 2507 log contract opened at 760, with the lowest price of 756, the highest price of 769, and closed at 766, with a daily position reduction of 1036 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the resistance at 790. There is certain support at the spot end, and the futures price rebounded. On May 29, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory has slightly increased, and the overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the spot price, import data, the inventory procurement of downstream enterprises, and the price - holding willingness of traders [10] Steel - On May 29, rb2510 closed at 2978 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3110 yuan/ton. This week, the production of rebar has slightly declined, the inventory has continued to decrease, and the apparent demand has slightly increased. The data is slightly positive. In the short term, although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week and the pre - holiday inventory procurement sentiment has increased, the real estate cycle has not yet stabilized, the physical workload of infrastructure investment is relatively lagging, and affected by the rainy season in the south and the seasonal law of outdoor construction, the demand expectation for rebar is weak [10] Alumina - On May 29, ao2509 closed at 2964 yuan/ton. The alumina market showed an oscillating downward trend, and the market performance was weak. There are still differences between the short - term and medium - long - term supply, and there is still strong uncertainty in overseas ore policies, so the price may fluctuate. The incomplete recovery of short - term maintenance capacity and the supply disturbance of bauxite provide some support for alumina, but the upward space is limited [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On May 29, al2507 closed at 20200 yuan/ton. Although the aluminum inventory is at a low level, providing certain support for the aluminum price, due to the lack of more than expected positive factors at the macro level recently, it is difficult to drive the aluminum price to break through further. At the same time, the off - season pressure on the demand side also limits the upward space of the aluminum price to some extent. Therefore, the aluminum price will maintain an oscillating consolidation trend in the short term [11]

Variety Views - On May 28, A-share market's three major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31% to 1985.38. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.01 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 11 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3836.24, down 3.16 [1]. - On May 28, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1339.7 yuan, down 25.8 [2]. - On May 28, the weighted index of coking coal remained weak, closing at 780.0 yuan, down 17.5 [3]. - Affected by concerns about increased exports from India and waiting for sugar production data from Brazil, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract tumbled on May 28. India's monsoon rainfall in 2025 is expected to be 106% of the long - term average [4]. - With the start of rubber tapping in major producing countries and concerns about tire demand, the spot price in Southeast Asia dropped significantly. The Shanghai rubber futures fell sharply on May 28 [5]. - On May 28, palm oil rebounded slightly within the range and then fell back. The reference price of crude palm oil in Indonesia for June was lowered to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff was reduced to $52 per ton [7]. - On May 28, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The planting rate of US soybeans as of May 25 was 76%. The domestic soybean meal futures closed up 0.54% to 2966 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose [8]. - On May 28, the hog futures fluctuated at the bottom. The market is in a state of loose supply in the long - term, and the futures price is bearish [9]. - The Shanghai copper futures showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable. The price is supported by downstream restocking [10]. - On May 28, the iron ore 2509 contract closed down 0.14% to 698.5 yuan. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the futures price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. - On May 28, the asphalt 2507 contract closed down 0.91% to 3481 yuan. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken, and the futures price will fluctuate [11]. - On May 28 night, the Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13245 yuan/ton. The cotton price is at a near - three - year low, and weather changes should be monitored [12]. - On May 28, the log futures opened at 754, closed at 758, and decreased in positions by 1356 lots. The spot market is in the off - season, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction [12]. - On May 28, the rb2510 of steel closed at 2964 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton. The black - series market will remain in a "bottom - grinding" pattern [13]. - On May 28, the ao2509 of alumina closed at 2991 yuan/ton. The price is near the cost line, and the upside space is limited [13]. - On May 28, the al2507 of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20095 yuan/ton. The inventory is low, and the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 27, A-share market indices declined: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3340.69, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.61% to 10029.11, and ChiNext Index decreased 0.68% to 1991.64. Trading volume was 9989 billion yuan, down 110 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 3839.40, down 20.71 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 27, Coke weighted index closed at 1365.2 yuan, down 12.8; Coking coal weighted index closed at 800.4 yuan, down 1.1. Coke's second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton is expected to take effect on Wednesday. Some steel mills'开工 declined slightly, downstream demand weakened, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure increased. Some coking coal prices dropped, reducing coke enterprises' costs. For coking coal, some mines had production cuts, online auction failure rate rose, and inventory accumulated. Mongolian 5 raw coal price dropped to 760 - 780 yuan/ton [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the holiday, US sugar market was closed on Monday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated on Tuesday, closing slightly higher, and slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. Analysts expect Brazil's mid - south region's May 1 - 15 sugarcane crushing volume to be 4060 million tons, down 9.9% year - on - year, and sugar production to be 229 million tons, down 11.5% year - on - year [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand may affect rubber tapping. Shanghai rubber rebounded on Tuesday and declined at night. In April 2025, global light - vehicle sales reached 7.32 million units, up 6% year - on - year [2]. Palm Oil - On May 27, palm oil rebounded at a low level. The main contract P2509 closed at 8044, up 1.13%. Malaysia's May 1 - 25 palm oil exports were 991702 tons, up 7.3% from the previous month. China's palm oil commercial inventory decreased to 360,000 tons, down 50,000 tons week - on - week [3][4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly on May 27. Trump postponed EU import tariff increase to July 9. As of May 25, 2025, US soybean planting rate was 76%, higher than 66% last year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 172 million tons. Domestically, on May 26, soybean meal futures rose. With more soybeans arriving, soybean inventory increased, oil mills' operating rate rose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. Short - term demand growth is limited [4]. Live Pigs - On May 27, live pig futures fluctuated at the bottom, closing at 13560 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but fresh pork sales are poor. In the long - term, the market supply is abundant, and the futures price is bearish [5]. Shanghai Copper - Trump's threat and rising US bond yields increased pressure on risk assets. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased 1.4% year - on - year. Although high copper prices weakened domestic demand, continuous inventory reduction supported the spot price [5]. Iron Ore - On May 27, iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.76% to 698.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, arrivals increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On May 27, asphalt 2507 contract rose 0.03% to 3516 yuan. Capacity utilization decreased, shipments increased, but supply may rise. With the rainy season in the south, demand may be suppressed, and prices will fluctuate [6]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13285 yuan/ton. On May 28, the lowest basis price was 680 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 23 lots [6]. Logs - On May 27, log 2507 contract opened at 764.5, closed at 755, with an increase of 159 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [6][8]. Steel - On May 27, rb2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3111 yuan/ton. With the rainy season approaching, building material demand may decline seasonally, and plate consumption will enter the off - season. The steel market faces oversupply, and prices will fluctuate weakly [8]. Alumina - On May 27, ao2509 closed at 3018 yuan/ton. Tight spot supply and inventory reduction supported prices, but concerns about bauxite supply eased and increased production capacity limited price increases. The market lacks a one - sided trend [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 27, al2507 closed at 20040 yuan/ton. Although there are tariff impacts, strong demand, supply disruptions, and low inventory may support prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. The market is in oversupply, demand growth is limited, supply may increase, and cost support is weakening. Prices will remain weak [9].

客服产品系列•日评 【股指期货】 周一（5 月 26 日）A 股三大指数走势分化，沪指震荡整理，创业板指走势较弱。截止收盘， 沪指跌 0.05%，收报 3346.84 点；深证成指跌 0.41%，收报 10091.16 点；创业板指跌 0.80%，收报 2005.26 点。 沪深两市成交额仅有 1.01 万亿，较上周五缩量 1456 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 26 日持续调整，收盘 3860.11，环比下跌 22.17。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 26 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1375.7 元，环比下跌 24.2。 5 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 800.1 元，环比下跌 15.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：基本面进入供强需弱阶段，供给端吨焦利润回落，短期来看暂无限产预期；需求端钢厂首轮提降落地， 铁水见顶回落，刚需量边际走弱。 焦煤：进入淡季负反馈格局。宏观方面情绪消化后，供应端部分煤矿因安全问题和利润减产，上游依旧持续 累库，出货压力较大，供给相对充裕，需求端下游持货意愿不强，主动压减库存天数，铁水环比见顶回落，需求 淡季影响显现。5 月淡旺季切换后，供需双减 ...

Variety View Stock Index Futures - On May 23, the three major A-share indices collectively pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to close at 3348.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to close at 10132.41 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.18% to close at 2021.50 points. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1155.6 billion yuan, an increase of 52.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index pulled back and closed at 3882.27, a decrease of 31.39 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 23, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1384.0 yuan, a decrease of 25.5 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 802.3 yuan, a decrease of 32.9 from the previous day [2]. Factors Affecting Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - Coke: Some enterprises' production declined slightly due to maintenance. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakened, and steel prices fell. Steel mills mainly replenished inventory based on rigid demand, and the overall procurement enthusiasm was average. The first round of price cuts for coke by steel mills was implemented, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and coke enterprises' profits shrank [3]. - Coking coal: This week, some coal mines stopped or reduced production due to accidents. After the first - round price cut of coke, coal prices still have room to fall in the short term. Some previously shut - down or reduced - production coal mines resumed production, and coal mine output increased. Pit - mouth orders decreased, and coal mine inventory accumulated. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal dropped to about 770 - 800 yuan/ton [3]. Soybean Meal - International market: The soybean harvest progress in Argentina has passed 60%. The sowing and emergence indicators of US soybeans are better than normal levels. However, the weak export demand and unmet biodiesel policy expectations may limit the upward space of US soybean prices. Domestic market: On May 23, the M2509 main contract closed at 2652 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. With the increase in soybean arrivals, soybean inventory continued to rise, and the national oil mill operating rate increased significantly. The short - term demand for soybean meal increased limitedly. The price upward space of soybean meal is restricted [3]. Live Pigs - On May 23, the main 2509 contract of live pigs closed at 13515 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The consumption demand did not meet expectations. The market is in a pattern of loose supply. In the medium - to - long - term, the inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased, so the live pig futures price may fluctuate weakly [4]. Cotton - On the night of May 23, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13400 yuan/ton. On May 26, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the national cotton trading market was at least 660 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 50 lots compared with the previous day [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main price of Shanghai copper maintains a volatile trend, with an operating range of 77400 - 78800 yuan/ton. If it can break through the pressure level near 78500 yuan/ton, the upward space may open; otherwise, there is great pressure at key points such as 79490 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - On May 23, the 2509 main contract of iron ore oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.24%, closing at 718 yuan. Last week, the overseas shipment of iron ore increased significantly, the arrival volume continued to decrease, and the port inventory continued to decline. The terminal demand is under seasonal weakening pressure, and the molten iron output has declined for two consecutive periods. Iron ore shows a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On May 23, the 2507 main contract of asphalt oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.37%, closing at 3516 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month, and the shipment volume increased month - on - month. In June, the asphalt production volume of local refineries will increase year - on - year and month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season, the terminal demand may be suppressed. Asphalt shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On May 23, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 776.5, with a minimum of 773, a maximum of 777.5, and closed at 775, with a daily reduction of 442 lots. The port log inventory has dropped to a three - month low. The overall demand is still weak, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction. The spot price is weak [6]. Steel - Currently, the macro news is relatively calm. The market refocuses on the supply - demand fundamentals. In the short term, the demand has declined but still maintains a certain resilience. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the de - stocking stage, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, with the arrival of the rainy season, the steel price may face downward pressure in the medium term [7]. Alumina - The import of domestic bauxite has increased significantly. The supply of alumina may increase slightly, and the demand remains stable. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is close to the industry limit, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The demand of some downstream aluminum processing enterprises has weakened, and the inventory may accumulate slightly if the seasonal consumption weakens [9].

【股指期货】 周四（5 月 22 日） A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.22%，收报 3380.19 点；深 证成指跌 0.72%，收报 10219.62 点；创业板指跌 0.96%，收报 2045.57 点。沪深两市成交额达到 1.1 万亿，较昨 日缩量逾 700 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 22 日窄幅整理，收盘 3913.86，环比下跌 2.52。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 23 日 星期五 品种观点： 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 22 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1407.4 元，环比下跌 12.1。 5 月 22 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 827.7 元，环比下跌 14.2。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦煤价格下跌让利，焦企利润水平尚可，开工积极，开工率年内高位，焦炭供应宽松且供给弹性较大。 需求，钢厂铁水产量或阶段性见顶，上周钢联口径铁水产量环比下降 0.87 万吨，首轮提降落地之后，市场看跌 情绪仍存。 焦煤：近期国内煤矿复产，高频数据显示上游开工环比增加，国内煤炭供应稳中有增。进口，蒙煤通关量高 位有所回落，但由于下游 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（5 月 20 日） A 股市场主要指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.38%，收报 3380.48 点；深证成 指涨 0.77%，收报 10249.17 点；创业板指涨 0.77%，收报 2048.46 点；北证 50 指数涨 1.22%创历史新高，收报 1473.99 点。沪深京三市成交额超 1.2 万亿，较昨日放量近千亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 20 日震荡趋强，收盘 3898.17，环比上涨 21.03。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 20 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1408.6 元，环比下跌 24.3。 5 月 20 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 838.8 元，环比下跌 12.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：供应维持增长，焦厂焦炉有所增产，需求端：虽然铁水略有走弱而下降，但需求总量上铁水仍在高位， 需求支撑仍在，库存端：全面去库，仅钢厂焦煤轻微补库。关税超预期利好带来的市场情绪随时间消退，价格回 归基本面矛主导 。 焦煤：柳林低硫主焦煤 1240 元/吨（0），乌不浪口蒙 5# ...