| /资者等待逢低布局多单；伦敦金关注3150-3250附近支撑位及3500-3700附近压力位，沪金730-760附近支撑位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦 | | --- | | [银35-37附近支撑位及40-43附近压力位，沪银8600-9000附近支撑位及9500-10000附近压力位。（观点评分：0） | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的推 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证、也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、统论和建议仅供参考，不拘成任何投资建议。投 | | 谈者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资资造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472 ...

| | 甲醇日评20250801: 反内卷预期反复, 甲醇震荡调整 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 变化值 单位 2025/7/31 2025/7/30 (绝对值) | | | 变化值 (相对值) | | MA01 | 2493.00 元/吨 | 2510.00 | -17.00 | -0.68% | | MA05 | 元/吨 2440.00 甲醇期货价格 | 2447.00 | -7.00 | -0.29% | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 2405.00 | 2419.00 | -14.00 | -0.58% | | 太仓 | 元/吨 2392.50 | 2405.00 | -12.50 | -0.52% | | 山东 | 元/吨 2312.50 | 2310.00 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 期现价格 | 广东 元/吨 2395.00 | 2415.00 | -20.00 | -0.83% | | 及基差 | 甲醇规货价格 元/吨 2092.50 陕西 (日度均价) | 2082.50 | 10.00 | 0.48% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the Politburo meeting, the expectation of anti - involution policy fluctuated, coking coal prices declined, and most coal - chemical products followed suit. Urea supply pressure remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although enterprise inventories are slightly decreasing mainly due to increased port collection, upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season, and if export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan or 1.92% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1775 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 1.50%; UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 1.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in most regions remained stable, with only the price in Jiangsu dropping 10 yuan/ton or 0.56% to 1780 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 27 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 7 yuan/ton to - 39 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream coal prices and downstream product prices (such as compound fertilizer, melamine) remained unchanged [1] 2. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1739 yuan/ton, the highest was 1739 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1709 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1714 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1722 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 141,557 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - Due to the complex policy expectations and the current fundamental situation of urea, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]

| 1.美国6月核心PCE通胀年率意外回升至2.8%. 而消费者支出近乎停滞。 | 资讯 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 7月31日,沪键主力合约成荡下行,成交量为148818手(-9505),持仓量为97451手(+4816),伦傑宗0.47%。观货市场成交较 | 弱,甚差升水扩大。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周铁矿到浓量增加,港口库存去库;铁铁厂亏损幅度收窄,7月国内排产城 | | | 少,印尼排产减少,镍铁去席:7月国内电解银将产减少,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元排产增加;不锈钢厂根产下降:合 | 媒 | 金与电镀需求稳定。库存来商,上狗所减少,LNE增加,社会库存减少,保税区库存持平。综上,免银基本面偏松,市场情 | | 绪有一定降温,预计银价偏弱宽荡。据作上,建议连高法空。(观点评分;0) | 凤险提示:美联储降息预期变化,"反内卷"政策落地 | | | 投资集略 | | | | 7月31日,不锈钢主力合约震荡下行,成交量为147342手(-6061),持仓量为9448手(-8202);现货市场成交较弱。基差升 | 水矿大。库存来看,上期所库存持平,上周300系社会库存为638500吨 ...

| | 甲醇日评20250801: 反内卷预期反复, 甲醇震荡调整 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 变化值 单位 2025/7/31 2025/7/30 (绝对值) | | | 变化值 (相对值) | | MA01 | 2493.00 元/吨 | 2510.00 | -17.00 | -0.68% | | MA05 | 元/吨 2440.00 甲醇期货价格 | 2447.00 | -7.00 | -0.29% | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 2405.00 | 2419.00 | -14.00 | -0.58% | | 太仓 | 元/吨 2392.50 | 2405.00 | -12.50 | -0.52% | | 山东 | 元/吨 2312.50 | 2310.00 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 期现价格 | 广东 元/吨 2395.00 | 2415.00 | -20.00 | -0.83% | | 及基差 | 甲醇规货价格 元/吨 2092.50 陕西 (日度均价) | 2082.50 | 10.00 | 0.48% | | ...

免费声明:宏源规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规定签管机构,已具备知货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公 司时这些信息的准确性和党整理不作任何保证。也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告的采购客观、公正，但文中的观点、精准冲进议 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规资投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：期市有风险 2市需速使, 吴金恒(F03100418 Z0021125),联系电话:010-82293229 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-31 | 2025-07-30 | 2025-07-24 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | ( | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 119000.00 | 121520.00 | 124160.00 | -2,520.00 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The U.S. does not impose tariffs on electrolytic copper, ending cross - market arbitrage. The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper tends to rise, so the Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors lightly short the main contract on rallies, and pay attention to certain support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and U.S. copper [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,040, a decrease of 890 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 109,011 hands, a decrease of 119,877 hands compared to the previous day; the open interest was 176,193 hands, an increase of 4,504 hands compared to the previous day; the inventory was 19,622 tons, a decrease of 351 tons compared to the previous day; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,565, a decrease of 720 compared to the previous day [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 525, an increase of 170 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes, such as - 20 in Guangzhou, - 110 in North China, and 32 in East China [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 31, 2025 was 9,607, a decrease of 123 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 138,200 compared to the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on July 31, 2025 was 4.4305, a decrease of 1.24 compared to the previous day; the total inventory was 257,915, an increase of 4,484 compared to the previous day [2]. News and Events - On July 30, local time, the U.S. White House announced that starting from August 1, it will impose a 20% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and steel - intensive derivative products, while copper input raw materials and copper scrap are not subject to "Section 232" or equivalent tariffs [2]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer - end inflation CPI and PCE in the U.S. to rise in June. The U.S. economy and employment performance are robust, and the inflation pushed up by tariffs may take a long time to show, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and December [2][3]. Production Changes - Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in Chile in 2025 in the second quarter; Newmont's Red Chris copper mine in Canada suspended operations due to an accident; Anglo Asian Mining's Deniri copper mine started trial production; Russia's Nornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast; several mines in China and other regions had production - affecting incidents [3]. - Some mines have expansion or new - production plans, such as the second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador under Tongling Nonferrous Metals may be put into production in the second half of 2025; the second - phase expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2025 [3].

| | 甲醇日评20250801: 反内卷预期反复, 甲醇震荡调整 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 变化值 单位 2025/7/31 2025/7/30 (绝对值) | | | 变化值 (相对值) | | MA01 | 2493.00 元/吨 | 2510.00 | -17.00 | -0.68% | | MA05 | 元/吨 2440.00 甲醇期货价格 | 2447.00 | -7.00 | -0.29% | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 2405.00 | 2419.00 | -14.00 | -0.58% | | 太仓 | 元/吨 2392.50 | 2405.00 | -12.50 | -0.52% | | 山东 | 元/吨 2312.50 | 2310.00 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 期现价格 | 广东 元/吨 2395.00 | 2415.00 | -20.00 | -0.83% | | 及基差 | 甲醇规货价格 元/吨 2092.50 陕西 (日度均价) | 2082.50 | 10.00 | 0.48% | | ...

| /资者等待逢低布局多单；伦敦金关注3150-3250附近支撑位及3500-3700附近压力位，沪金730-760附近支撑位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦 | | --- | | [银35-37附近支撑位及40-43附近压力位，沪银8600-9000附近支撑位及9500-10000附近压力位。（观点评分：0） | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的推 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证、也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、统论和建议仅供参考，不拘成任何投资建议。投 | | 谈者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资资造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - After the Political Bureau meeting, the expectation of anti - involution policy fluctuated, coking coal prices declined, and most coal - chemical products followed suit. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although enterprise inventories are slightly decreasing due to increased port collection, upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season, and if export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices declined: UR01 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan (-1.92%); UR05 closed at 1775 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (-1.50%); UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan (-1.61%) [1] - Most domestic spot prices remained stable: Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Northeast prices were unchanged, while Jiangsu dropped 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%) [1] - Upstream and downstream prices were mostly stable: The prices of anthracite coal, compound fertilizer, and melamine in various regions remained unchanged [1] 2. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1739 yuan/ton, the highest was 1739 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1709 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1722 yuan/ton, and the position was 141,557 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated weakly and closed at 1714. Due to the repeated expectation of anti - involution policy and the decline of coking coal, most coal - chemical products followed suit. Considering the supply - demand fundamentals, it is recommended to wait and see [1]