Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report believes that current urea is undervalued, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is relatively low, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has reached a near - five - year low and stabilized. Upstream enterprises are already suffering losses, and further price drops may reduce upstream production willingness. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers mainly replenish stocks cautiously at low prices. The potential driving forces to watch are the renovation of old chemical equipment on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On October 21, UR01 closed at 1609 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan or 0.56% from the previous day), UR05 at 1682 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan or 0.42%), and UR09 at 1719 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan or 0.64%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In domestic markets, prices in Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.65%, -0.65% and -0.64% respectively), and in the Northeast by 20 yuan/ton (-1.23%), while the price in Hebei remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -142 yuan/ton on October 21, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread was -73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu all remained unchanged [1]. Important Information The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1597 yuan/ton, the highest was 1622 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1596 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1609 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1611 yuan/ton. The position volume was 312,167 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Sell out - of - the - money put options [1].

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王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20251022: 美元指数走强使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-15 | 收盘价 | 970. 32 | 23. 74 | 33.72 | 994. 06 | 960. 34 | | | | | 成父童 | 728228.00 | 496445.00 | 420246.00 | -231, 783.00 | 76, 199.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 205110.00 | 207916.00 | 230686.00 | -2,806.00 | -25,576.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 84606.00 | 86565. 00 | 75099.0 ...

Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the market shows both supply and demand growth. The resumption of a large recycled lead smelter in North China has increased refined lead production, but raw material supply is tight. The short - term lead price is expected to remain range - bound, and continuous attention should be paid to the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises and macro - sentiment changes [1]. - For zinc, the market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, demand has not significantly improved. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventories, the LME 0 - 3 back structure has deepened, and overseas structural risks should be vigilant [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,000.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 17,160.00 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the basis was - 160.00 yuan/ton, down 25.00 yuan/ton [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,993.00 dollars/ton, down 0.05%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.61, up 0.64% [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 43,537.00 hands, up 57.42%; open interest was 33,556.00 hands, down 12.15%; the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.30, up 79.19% [1]. - LME inventory was 247,300.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 28,133.00 tons, down 3.87% [1]. Industry Information - A large recycled lead smelter in North China has resumed production, with daily refined lead output exceeding 500 tons, but raw material supply is tight [1]. - On October 20, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 41.78 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 152,131 hands, down 3,442 hands [1]. - Silvercorp's lead production in the second quarter of 2025 was 14.2 million pounds, up 8% year - on - year [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,870.00 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 21,970.00 yuan/ton, up 0.53%; the basis was - 100.00 yuan/ton, down 45.00 yuan/ton [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,993.50 dollars/ton, up 0.59%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 7.34, down 0.06% [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 108,521.00 hands, up 25.60%; open interest was 130,442.00 hands, up 98.81%; the volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.83, down 36.83% [1]. - LME inventory was 37,275.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 66,268.00 tons, down 0.23% [1]. Industry Information - Silvercorp's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 5.6 million pounds, down 3% year - on - year [1]. - On October 20, [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 230.29 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 211,259 hands, down 13,012 hands [1]. Investment Strategy - For both lead and zinc, the trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251022：关注供给端变动 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/22 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,505.00 | -0.70% | | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 795.00 | 60.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 | | 元/千克 | 51.50 | 0.49% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 50,715.00 | 0.74% | | | 元/吨 | 基差 | | 785.00 | -125.00 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of Sino-US tariff negotiations may put pressure on copper prices. The Fed's future expectations of interest rate cuts and halting balance sheet reduction, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines, suggest a bullish stance. It is recommended to wait for price dips to establish long positions, paying attention to specific support and resistance levels for different copper markets [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On October 21, 2025, the closing price was 85,400, up 20 from the previous day; trading volume was 104,758 hands, down 53,903; open interest was 231,226 hands, up 4,316; inventory was 37,678 tons, down 3,641; the basis was 330, up 80 [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 21, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,596.5, down 116 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -30.22, down 6.87; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 96.56, down 2.55; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0593, up 0.091 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 21, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.9525, down 0.04 from the previous day; the total inventory was 345,924, up 343 [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper is difficult to procure, the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates are initially rising, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Wait for price dips to establish long positions. Pay attention to the support level of 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level of 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; the support level of 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Information**: - Naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/10/17, ethylene Northeast Asia on 2025/10/17, upstream ethane in East China on 2025/10/20, MA on 2025/10/20, lignite 3500 in Inner Mongolia on 2025/10/20 are presented [1]. - For ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China on 2025/10/20, various prices are given, including middle price at $537.00 per ton (down 1.56% from previous value), index price at $781.00 per ton (down 0.64%), etc [1]. - Polyester factory load rate in the PT industry chain on 2025/10/20 is 89.38% (unchanged), and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rate in the PT industry chain on 2025/10/20 is 69.13% (unchanged) [1]. - For oil - made ethylene glycol on 2025/10/17, the ex - disk value is -$99.97 per ton (up $8.72 from previous value) [1]. - After - tax gross profit of MT - made MEG on 2025/10/20 is 1683.40 yuan per ton (down 9.83 yuan from previous value) [1]. - For polyester products on 2025/10/20, DTY price index is 8400.00 yuan per ton (unchanged), POY price index is 6750.00 yuan per ton (unchanged), short - fiber price index is 6280.00 yuan per ton (down 0.08% from previous value), and bottle - grade chip price index is 5630.00 yuan per ton (down 0.27% from previous value) [1]. - **Production and Operation Information**: - The overall comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol on 2025/10/20 is 65.39% (down 1.11% from previous value), oil - made ethylene glycol operating rate is 68.09% (down 1.85% from previous value), and coal - made ethylene glycol operating rate is 61.32% (unchanged) [1].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Tin [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Author: Wang Wenhu [2] - Contact: 021 - 51801878 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations weighs on tin prices, but the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, along with the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be weak first and then strong. Investors are advised to mainly buy on price dips, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's future interest rate cut and halt of balance - sheet reduction expectations and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is below the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the Fed's expectations and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in LME, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10] - The inventory of refined tin in SHFE decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in LME increased compared with last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared with last week [12] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines [18][19] - The production (import) volume of Chinese tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. Factors include the resumption of mines in Myanmar, Indonesia's mine policies, and the situation in other countries [21][23] - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in October increased month - on - month [24][25] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined tin increased compared with last week. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October increased (decreased) month - on - month [26][28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month due to the production plans of foreign mines and export forecasts [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [41][43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries increased compared with last week. As tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect tin demand [44][46]

[尿ta素ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 21 日 低估值，待驱动 风险提示：出口政策收紧，老旧装置改造延迟。 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《尿素周报 0722：基本面偏弱，价格重 心下移》 《尿素周报 0812：出口炒作影响盘面情 绪》 《尿素周报 0826：短期反弹，空间有限》 《尿素周报 0909：供强需弱格局延续》 《尿素周报 1021：供应过剩是中长期矛 盾》 《尿素周报 1104：关注反弹后的卖出机 会》 《尿素周报 1118：维持空配观点》 《尿素周报 0217：出口传言再起》 《尿素周报 0310：供需双旺，价格区间 震荡为主》 《尿素周报 0401：需求支撑价格》 《尿素周报 0520：回落空间有限》 《尿素周报0916：做多机会或逐步到来》 期货（期权）研究报告 | 一、 行情回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 0915-1020：震荡下跌 | 4 | | 二、 基差与价差 | 4 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of ethylene glycol continued to decline this week. Although the fundamentals of ethylene glycol have not undergone significant adjustments, the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions has led to a significant increase in market risk - aversion sentiment. Polyester demand shows no outstanding performance, with stable operation and neutral pick - up. Yulong Petrochemical's supply has gradually entered the market, resulting in sufficient on - site spot liquidity. - Next week's prediction: On the cost side, the bearish fundamentals of crude oil will continue to suppress price performance and limit the rebound and repair space, with overall fluctuations. On the supply side, the operation rate remains high, but as coal prices rise and squeeze profits, the coal - based operation rate may decline later. On the demand side, the domestic market demand remains strong, but the issuance of new export orders is slow, and the weaving market lacks confidence in the future market. In terms of port inventory, there are more ethylene glycol vessel arrivals this month, the polyester operation rate is relatively stable, and the downstream pick - up volume from ports remains neutral. - Overall, it is expected that ethylene glycol will operate at a low level, in the range of 3950 - 4100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1盘面及现货情况 (Disk and Spot Conditions) - **Disk Trend**: Continued to decline. This week, the trading volume was 751,900 lots, and the open interest was 340,400 lots (- 87,000 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on October 20 was 4003 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108 yuan/ton compared to the closing price of 4111 yuan/ton on October 13, with an overall change of - 2.63%. The settlement price on October 20 was 4030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price of 4112 yuan/ton on October 13, with an overall change of - 1.99% [8][12][14]. - **Spot Market**: For domestic spot, the higher transaction price was 4196 (October 13), and the lower transaction price was 4071 (October 17). From October 12 - 18, the weekly price data showed that in Fujian it was 4171 yuan/ton (- 59), in Zhangjiagang it was 4130.5/ton (- 27.83), and in Dongguan it was 4171 yuan/ton (- 59). The foreign - market price was 488.2 US dollars/ton (- 3.47). This week's average basis was 91 yuan/ton, compared with last week's average of 90.33 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets of ethylene glycol remained inverted, with an overall level of 70 - 100 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.2 MEG装置、库存及生产利润情况 (MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit Situation) - **Device Operation Rate**: The overall operation rate from October 14 - 20 was 70.93%, compared with 70.22% from October 9 - 13. The oil - based operation rate was 76.31%, the coal - based operation rate was 62.95%, and the methanol - based operation rate was 62.43%. There were various device changes during the week, including maintenance of Zhonghai Shell and Tongliao Jinmei devices, restart of Satellite, Tianye, Guoneng Yulin, and Meijin devices, and Yulong Petrochemical's device resumed operation after a short - term shutdown. Hengli and Far Eastern Union slightly increased their device loads [19][22][24]. - **Production Profit**: Due to the significant rebound in thermal coal prices, the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol production has dropped significantly. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production routes are - 1687.74 yuan/ton, 90.26 yuan/ton, and - 124.34 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with the previous period's - 1607.16 yuan/ton, 261.94 yuan/ton, and - 122.23 US dollars/ton [31][33]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 16, the MEG port inventory was 475,500 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons compared with the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 15.51%. Among them, Zhangjiagang had 194,500 tons (an increase of 9,000 tons), Jiangyin had 60,000 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons), Taicang had 136,000 tons (an increase of 71,000 tons), Ningbo had 82,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and Shanghai and Changshu had 3,000 tons (a decrease of 22,000 tons). The polyester operation load was generally stable, and the port pick - up was neutral [35][37][38]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: Oil prices still lack substantial positive factors, and the bearish fundamentals will continue to suppress price performance and limit the rebound and repair space. The polyester operation rate has a narrow fluctuation range, and there is no new production capacity in the market, so the market supply is mostly stable [44][46]. - **Polyester Product Situation**: The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.38%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.22%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6571 yuan/ton, 7804 yuan/ton, and 6754 yuan/ton respectively, down 1.47%, 0.82%, and 1.13% compared with the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market this period was 6326 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton or - 1.45% compared with the previous period. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5600 - 5730 yuan/ton, with an average price of 5710.00 yuan/ton this week, down 2.14% compared with the previous period [48]. - **Weaving Market**: New export orders are issued slowly, and the weaving market lacks confidence in the future market. With the drop in temperature in the north, the online sales of autumn and winter textile and clothing have accelerated, driving the sales of thick fabrics such as autumn and winter fleece and woolen fabrics. The operating rates of warp - knitting enterprises have steadily increased. As of October 16, the operating rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, Xiaoshao, and the warp - knitting operating rates in Haining and Changshu have shown different changes [52][54]. - **Polyester Downstream**: The raw material inventory of polyester downstream is at a low level, and the rigid demand is gradually increasing. From October 13 - 17, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated to be 70%. The filament production enterprises have continued to accumulate inventory, and the end - of - month shipment pressure is gradually increasing. As of October 16, the filament inventory decreased, with the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY being 16.80 days, 26.10 days, and 31.50 days respectively [55][57][59].