| | | 镍与不锈钢日评20251201:下跌后弱修复 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-27 | 2025-11-21 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 116730.00 | 116710.00 | 113890.00 | 20.00 | 3 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | nt | 117080.00 | 116900.00 | 180.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 114050.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 117250.00 | 117110.00 | 114230.00 | 140.00 | nr | | | | | 117320.00 | 200.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 117520.00 | 114520.00 | 117080.00 | 116900.00 | 180.00 | 收盘价 | 11 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430 yuan, up 440 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 94,508 lots, down 810 lots; open interest was 218,257 lots, up 7,573 lots; inventory was 35,244 tons, down 629 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was $11,175.5, up $245.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was $44.69, up $28.13; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $195, up $28.75 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was $5.278, up $0.17 from the previous day; total inventory was 418,727 tons, up 2,847 tons [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod decreased, and that of recycled copper rod remained flat. Higher copper prices have curbed downstream purchasing意愿 [3]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, while LME electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 yuan and the resistance levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 yuan for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 for London copper and 12,300 - 13,500; and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, which, along with fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, continuous gold - buying by central banks, high London silver lease rates, and geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices [1]. - The global platinum supply - demand is expected to be tight from 2025 - 2026, and with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate strongly [1]. - The global palladium supply - demand may shift from tight to loose from 2025 - 2026, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On November 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 930.32 yuan/gram, with a change of 6.76 yuan from the previous day and 23.60 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 189,713, and the open interest was 202,129. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 925.75 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 53,158 and an open interest of 233,348. COMEX gold futures closing price was 4078.30 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 149,887 and an open interest of 308,199. The London gold spot price was 4191.05 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Silver**: On November 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 12,727 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 1,827,650 and an open interest of 120,331. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,827 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 864,016 and an open interest of 4,008,616. COMEX silver futures closing price was 51.07 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 95,722 and an open interest of 112,132. The London silver spot price was 53.91 dollars/ounce [1]. Important News - Trump confirmed a phone call with Venezuelan President Maduro, stating that the remarks about closing Venezuelan airspace did not mean an imminent air strike. The media reported that Trump demanded Maduro's direct resignation [1]. - White House economic advisor Hassett said the market reacted positively to the news of selecting a Fed chairman by the end of the year, and reports that he was a top candidate were rumors. Trump refused to confirm appointing Hassett and claimed to know who to choose [1]. Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: It is advisable to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3800 - 4000 and the resistance level around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 11500 - 12500 and the resistance level around 13700/14000 - 15000 [1]. - **Platinum**: Short - term, lightly - position, try to go long on the main contract at low prices, or focus on the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on platinum and short on palladium". For London platinum, focus on the support level around 1260 - 1460 and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, focus on the support level around 325 - 377 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1]. - **Palladium**: Short - term, lightly - position, try to go long on the main contract at low prices. For London palladium, focus on the support level around 1080 - 1280 and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, focus on the support level around 320 - 350 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251201：区间整理 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/12/1 指标 单位 今值 变动 | | | 16,975.00 0.44% SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,090.00 0.80% | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -115.00 -60.00 | | | 20.00 - 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | | 美元/吨 -81.80 1.00 | | | 元/吨 -35.00 -25.00 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 10.00 | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -20.00 5.00 | | | 手 43,419.00 -24.23% 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 47,922.00 -0.43% | | | 成交持仓比 / 0.91 -23.90% | | | 沪锌近月-沪锌连一 元/吨 -40.00 -5.00 | | | 沪伦铅价比值 / 0.92% | 8. ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251201：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/1 近期趋势 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,130.00 | 0.16% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 220.00 | -15.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 56,425.00 | 2.15% | | -5,425.00 | 基差 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | -1,190.00 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply in supply and demand. However, from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels. Strategically, investors should focus on opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 9 yuan/ton (0.54%), in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton (1.21%); UR05 increased by 16 yuan/ton (0.93%); UR09 increased by 21 yuan/ton (1.21%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granular): In Jiangsu, it increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.22%), while in other regions such as Henan, Hebei, and Northeast, there was no change [1] - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 4 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu dropped to 0, with a decrease of 100% [1] 3.2 Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1679 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1687 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1677 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1678 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Multi - Empty Logic - The bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. In terms of valuation, the rebound from the bottom is not significant, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In terms of driving factors, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Focus on opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium to long term [1]

[行业table专题报告 _reportdate ] 2025 年 11 月 28 日 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第1页 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ➢ 炼化一体化是将石油炼制与化工生产通过工艺耦合、原料互供、能量 共享实现深度融合的产业模式，打破了传统炼油与化工独立运营的界 限，通过全链条资源优化配置，实现原油向成品油与高附加值化工品 的高效转化。这种模式并非简单的环节叠加，而是涵盖物质流、能量 流、信息流的系统性重构，例如将炼油产生的石脑油直接供给烯烃或 芳烃装置作为原料，减少中间储运成本。 ➢ 据《2024 年国内外油气行业发展报告》，"十五五"期间炼化行业将 加速兼并整合，以集群化、一体化、园区化的规模优势应对外部风 险。2030 年，全国炼厂平均规模达到 535 万吨/年，较 2024 年水平提 高 53 万吨/年；国内千万吨级炼厂占比达 60.7%，较 2024 年提高 4.7 个百分点；大连长兴岛、江苏连云港、浙江宁波、福建古雷、广东惠 州大亚湾等石化基地基本建成。 ➢ 炼化一体化的经济效益的提升来自规模效应、产品溢价与成本控制的 多重叠加。规模上，大型一体化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and there are production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. The weak employment performance in the US has led to an increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, and production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have made the import index of copper concentrates in China continuously negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month, the overall situation still supports a relatively strong copper price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price and Volume Data**: On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; the trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895 lots; the open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956 lots; the inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper semi - average price was 87,085, up 430 [2]. - **Basis and Premium Data**: The Shanghai copper basis was 95, up 30; the SMM + water copper opening discount semi - average price was 55, up 20; the SMM premium copper opening discount semi - average price was 175, up 25; the SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium - average price was 283.12, down 0.07 [2]. - **Spread Data**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 60, down 30; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 40, down 30; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 10, down 30.001 [2]. 3.2 London Copper - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 138.27. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 7.9588, up 0.05 [2]. 3.3 COMEX Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.2035, up 0.20. The total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 [2]. 3.4 Supply, Demand and Inventory - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, making the import index of copper concentrates in China continuously negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod has decreased compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rod has remained the same as last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; the support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; the support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's rebound from the bottom is limited, and its valuation remains relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. A new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter, and winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. In the long - term, investors should focus on opportunities to go long at low prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1668 yuan/ton on November 27, up 14 yuan (0.85%) from November 26 [1] - UR05: 1727 yuan/ton on November 27, up 9 yuan (0.52%) from November 26 [1] - UR09: 1736 yuan/ton on November 27, up 4 yuan (0.23%) from November 26 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1650 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] - Shanxi: 1520 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.33%) from November 26 [1] - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] - Hebei: 1660 yuan/ton on November 27, up 10 yuan (0.61%) from November 26 [1] - Northeast: 1720 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Jiangsu: 1640 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 77 yuan/ton on November 27, up 11 yuan from November 26 [1] - 01 - 05: - 59 yuan/ton on November 27, up 5 yuan from November 26 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively on November 27 compared to November 26 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong, melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu, and other downstream prices remained unchanged on November 27 compared to November 26 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1653 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1672 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1653 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1668 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1665 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 230913 lots [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's rebound from the bottom is limited, and its valuation remains relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. In the long - term, investors should focus on opportunities to go long at low prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1668 yuan/ton on November 27, up 14 yuan (0.85%) from November 26 [1] - UR05: 1727 yuan/ton on November 27, up 9 yuan (0.52%) from November 26 [1] - UR09: 1736 yuan/ton on November 27, up 4 yuan (0.23%) from November 26 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1650 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] - Shanxi: 1520 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.33%) from November 26 [1] - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] - Hebei: 1660 yuan/ton on November 27, up 10 yuan (0.61%) from November 26 [1] - Northeast: 1720 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Jiangsu: 1640 yuan/ton on November 27, up 20 yuan (1.23%) from November 26 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 77 yuan/ton on November 27, up 11 yuan from November 26 [1] - 01 - 05: - 59 yuan/ton on November 27, up 5 yuan from November 26 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan: 1030 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Anthracite prices in Shanxi: 930 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 3030 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Melamine prices in Shandong: 5190 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] - Melamine prices in Jiangsu: 5200 yuan/ton on November 27, unchanged from November 26 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1653 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1672 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1653 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1668 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1665 yuan/ton. The position volume was 230913 lots [1]