| | | 甲醇日评20250728: 焦煤回落,甲醇补跌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/7/25 | 2025/7/24 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | (絕对圓) | (相对值) | | MA01 | | 元/吨 | 2587.00 | 2550.00 | 37.00 | 1.45% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | | 元/吨 | 2504.00 | 2473.00 | 31.00 | 1.25% | | (收盘价) MA09 | | 元/吨 | 2519.00 | 2480.00 | 39.00 | 1.57% | | 太仓 | | 元/吨 | 2487.50 | 2460.00 | 27.50 | 1.12% | | 山东 | | 元/吨 | 2340.00 | 2300.00 | 40.00 | 1.74% | | 广东 期现价格 | | 元/吨 | 2460.00 | 2440.00 | 20.00 | 0.82% | | 甲醇规赏价格 及基差 陕西 (日度均 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Due to the warm domestic market sentiment, lead prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation, resulting in a weak fundamental situation. However, strong market bullish sentiment may lead to zinc prices trading in a range in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,955 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,020.50 dollars/ton, down 0.12%. The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.39, up 0.51% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 63.37%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of recycled lead enterprises was 40.7%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.86%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase. The electric bicycle trade - in program has boosted the industry, with a 113.5% average monthly - on - month increase in sales from January to June 2025, and a 27.6% year - on - year increase in the production of the top ten brands [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For recycled lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. As the inventory of electrolytic lead in factories decreases, the market's acceptance of high - priced recycled lead has improved. The market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases at the end of the month for inventory checks [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,829.00 dollars/ton, down 0.40%. The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.09, down 0.16% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 59.42%, a 0.30 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.03%, a 0.92 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.99%, a 0.33 - percentage - point decrease. The total inventory of zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 35.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.6 million tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic smelters are negotiating next - month's zinc processing fees, and it is expected that processing fees will continue to rise in August. With the continuous strength of zinc prices during the week, downstream off - season purchases have significantly decreased [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during the session. The spot market trading was light, and the basis discount widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased. In June, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production schedule of ternary materials rose, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipment volume was average. The production schedule of energy storage batteries increased in June. The registered warehouse receipts increased, the smelter destocked, and the downstream and other inventories increased. The "anti - involution" sentiment continued, with a large divergence between spot buyers and sellers. The high - grade products tumbled after leading the rise on Friday night. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options (View score: - 1) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 79,400 yuan/ton, the continuous first contract was 80,520 yuan/ton, the continuous second contract was 79,160 yuan/ton, and the continuous third contract was 80,520 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 1,203,424 hands (- 566,859), and the open interest was 491,088 hands (+ 54,361) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 10,239 tons [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract was - 1,120 yuan/ton, the spread between the continuous first and the continuous second contract was 1,360 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous second and the continuous third contract was 0 yuan/ton. The basis was - 3,310 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,700 yuan/ton, the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 63,120 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder type) was 65,670 yuan/ton [1] - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 711 US dollars/ton, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 945 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,790 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Materials**: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 75,505 yuan/ton, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,255 yuan/ton, and the average price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/ domestic) was 220,400 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Industry News - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the EU, including a 15% tariff on the EU, 600 billion US dollars of investment in the US by the EU, 0 tariffs on the US by EU countries, the EU's purchase of US military equipment, and the purchase of US energy products worth 750 billion US dollars [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that from the trading time on July 28, 2025, non - futures company members or clients' single - day opening volume on the lithium carbonate futures LC2509 contract shall not exceed 3,000 hands [1] 3.4 Inventory Data - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: The smelter inventory was 40,765 tons, the downstream inventory was 55,385 tons, other inventory was 41,430 tons, and the total inventory was 140,793 tons [1]

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250728:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-18 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-25 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124210.00 | 124160.00 | 120500.00 | 50.00 | | | | | | | | | | 期货连一合约 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120580.00 | 0.00 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 124520.00 | 120670.00 | -30.00 | 124490.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 124660.00 | 124710.00 | 120790.00 | -50.00 | 收盘价 | 收盘价 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120500. ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250728: 焦煤回落, 尿素或有补跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 | 单位 | 7月25日 | 7月24日 | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1807.00 1790.00 1690.00 | 1796.00 1810.00 1670.00 | 11.00 -20.00 20.00 | 0.61% -1.10% 1.20% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1822.00 | 1804.00 | 18.00 | 1.00% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1803.00 | 1785.00 | 18.00 | 1.01% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1830.00 | -20.00 | -1.09% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 178 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's September rate - cut, along with disruptions in copper mine production or transportation overseas and a decline in China's electrolytic copper social inventory, could lead to price adjustments in Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on specific support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,250 yuan, down 640 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,147 lots, an increase of 14,228 lots; the open interest was 180,830 lots, down 666 lots; the inventory was 16,133 tons, down 50 tons; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79,450 yuan, down 345 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 200 yuan, up 295 yuan from the previous day. Different regional spot premiums and discounts and spreads between different - month contracts showed various changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 25, 2025, was 9,796, down 58.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease from 128,475 the previous day. There were also changes in different contract spreads and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 25, 2025, was 5.804, down 0.04 from the previous day. The total inventory weight was 248,635, an increase of 3,127 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Mine Incidents**: Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations due to a tunnel collapse in the non - production project's underground working area, with three workers trapped. Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli operation in Azerbaijan increased copper concentrate production, while Russian Mornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast. Other mines also had various incidents and production adjustments [2][3]. - **Mine Closures and Expansions**: Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Australia next week, with about 500 people affected. Some mines, such as the Miraado copper mine in Ecuador and the Julong copper mine in China, have expansion plans [2][3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic and Policy News - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. US consumer - end inflation (CPI) increased in June due to import tariffs. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of a Fed rate - cut in September increased but decreased in December [2][3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on support and pressure levels: for Shanghai copper, 76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, 5.0 - 5.2 and 6.0 - 7.0 [3].

Commodity Price Information - The current price of crude oil is $580.50 per ton, with a previous value of $576.13, showing an increase of 0.6% [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene price index remains unchanged at $821.00 per ton [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is $640.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol is $2462.50 per ton, unchanged [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is $290.00 per ton, unchanged [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity is $4529.00 per ton, up 1.34% from the previous value; the closing price of the nearby contract is $4226.00 per ton [1] - The price index of domestic ethylene glycol in the inner market is $4580.00 per ton, up 0.88% from the previous value of $4540.00 [1] - The nearby - far month price difference is $303.00 per ton, with a change of -$60.00; the basis difference is $50.00 per ton, with a change of -$0.00 [1] Production and Operation Data - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol production is 58.98%, and the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol production is 94.62% [1] - The load rate of the PTA industry chain is 80.18%, and the load rate of the textile machinery industry in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industry chain is 58.63% [1] External Market and Profit Data - The price of foreign - market oil - based ethylene glycol is $828.92 per ton [1] - The after - tax gross profit of a certain production method is $1687.46 per ton, with a change of -$46.31 compared to the previous value [1] Price Index Data - The price index of polyester is $8600.00 per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester staple fiber is $6600.00 per ton, down 2.3% compared to the previous value of $6800.00; the price index of bottle - grade chips is $6080.00 per ton, up 1.2% compared to the previous value of $6005.00 [1] - The price of polyester is $7125.00 per ton, up 0.3% from the previous value of $7100.00 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, considering the reduction in supply after offsetting increases and decreases and the complex demand situation, the industrial silicon futures and spot prices have resonated and rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a firm short - term trend, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1]. - For polysilicon, due to the expected increase in production on the supply side and weak demand in the terminal market, although the polysilicon market has been rising since the end of June, it is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the short term, and chasing long positions carries high risks, so cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,850 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.36% to 9,725 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions remained mostly unchanged [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon increased by 1.11%, 1.09%, 2.30%, and 1.14% respectively, while the closing price of the futures main contract fell 5.10% to 51,025 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm silicon wafers remained unchanged [1]. - **Battery Cell**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained unchanged at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided and double - sided) of different specifications remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Industry News - The National Energy Administration plans to achieve full - coverage of green certificate issuance for distributed renewable energy power generation projects in Zhejiang, Henan, and Guangdong by the end of December 2025, and green certificates will be issued according to the use of electricity [1]. - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, with solar power and wind power installed capacities increasing by 54.2% and 22.7% respectively year - on - year. From January to June, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21 million kilowatts, with 14.36 million kilowatts added in June, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45% [1]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - **Industrial Silicon**: On the supply side, northern large - scale factories are reducing production, and the southwest region is gradually resuming production, with a possible decrease in overall supply. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, and organic silicon enterprises are strongly willing to reduce production to support prices. It is expected to maintain a firm short - term trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1]. - **Polysilicon**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected production. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, but the trading atmosphere has improved. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the short term, and chasing long positions carries high risks [1].

供应缩量带动价格上行 能源化工-MEG 宏源期货研究所 王江楠 010-82295006 从业资格证号：F03108382 投资咨询证号：Z0021543 1 一、主要观点 主要逻辑 综合来看，预计区间为4350-4550元/吨运行，多单可逐步止盈。 3 周内乙二醇继续回升，主因是装置的意外情况。天盈、建元临 时停车检修，浙石化降负运行，国内供应预期收缩。沙特地区 部分装置重启不畅影响近期当地装货计划有所推迟，国内外装 置均有预期外的变化，共同支撑价格上升。同时下游聚酯减产 兑现速度下降，供需结构短期向好。 下周预测：成本端，地缘问题仍有反复，需关注汽油累库是单 次意外累库还是趋势性累库，原油价格延续波动行情。供应端， 装置意外情况的影响仍在延续，不确定因素增加，将给价格带 来支持。需求端，聚酯已执行减产，淡季下新增订单体量持续 较小，织造开工维持稳定下滑。港口库存方面，显性库存保持 下降为主，下旬起外轮到货将适度增加。 二、盘面及现货情况 数据来源：Wind 5 周内成交98.03万手，持仓27.11万手（-1.02万手） 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 47 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has begun to decline [1]. - The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's rate cut in September, along with disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation and a decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to price adjustments in copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels for different copper markets [3]. 3. Section Summaries Macro - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, and the US June consumer price index (CPI) annual rate increased. The initial jobless claims were 227,000, better than expected and the previous value. Due to the Trump administration's pressure on Powell for a rate cut, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased while that in December decreased [3]. Upstream - The Chinese copper concentrate import index rose compared to last week. The out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) decreased (decreased, increased) last week. High - quality European scrap copper exports were restricted, and domestic importers could only buy copper scrap or brass. Concerns about Sino - US reciprocal tariffs led to low direct imports of US scrap copper. The price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper reduced the economic viability of scrap copper. The opening of the copper import window and transit supplies from countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in domestic scrap copper production (import) in July, with a change in supply - demand expectations. Tight raw material supply made traders hold back goods. Some copper plants and smelters have suspended production due to supply shortages. Multiple domestic copper production projects may increase the domestic electrolytic copper production in July, while the closed import window may limit imports, leading to an increase in the bonded - area inventory, a decrease in the social inventory, and an increase in the futures exchange inventory. Some international traders are still transporting about 500 million tons of copper to US ports, increasing the COMEX copper inventory [3]. Downstream - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China increased compared to last week. New downstream orders decreased, leading to weaker demand. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (increased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises increased (decreased) compared to last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises increased (decreased). The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper cable wrapping decreased (decreased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for cable - wrapping enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper plate and strip increased (increased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper plate and strip enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate of copper pipes decreased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper pipe enterprises decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods increased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for brass rod enterprises decreased. The easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while that of copper foil may increase [3]. Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on July 24, 2025: the closing price was 79,890, the trading volume was 161,652 lots, the open interest was 181,496 lots, the inventory was 16,183 tons, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,795. The Shanghai copper basis or spot premium/discount and various spreads also had corresponding changes compared to previous days [2]. - For London copper on July 24, 2025: the LME3 July copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,854.5, and there were changes in registration and cancellation of total warehouse - receipt inventory and contract spreads [2]. - For COMEX copper on July 24, 2025: the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.826, and the total inventory was 247,859 [2]. News Events - An accident occurred in the underground operation area of the Red Chris mine in Canada, leaving three workers trapped. Glencore has suspended the mine's operation. Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Queensland, Australia, next week, which was first announced in October 2023 [2].