Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the exchange restricts positions to cool down the market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - first, continuous - second, and continuous - third contracts were 68,500 yuan/ton, 68,920 yuan/ton, 69,240 yuan/ton, and 69,240 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 500 yuan/ton, 640 yuan/ton, 640 yuan/ton, and 640 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 340,670 lots (- 181,179), and the open interest was 216,103 lots (- 13,265) [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 6,605 tons (+ 1,060) [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased by 11 US dollars/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 55 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), and lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery - grade CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) decreased by 650 yuan/ton, 650 yuan/ton, and 0.05 US dollars/kg respectively [1]. 3.3 Other Related Products Prices - **Cobalt - related Products**: The average prices of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%, Jinchuan, Zambia), cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic), and tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) increased by 4,000 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 150 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Other Materials**: The average prices of some cathode materials, anode materials, and electrolytes showed different changes, such as the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [2]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, the production of ternary materials increased; in July, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, the production of lithium manganate increased slightly, and the production of power batteries increased last week; in the terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in July [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory tightened [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs. Traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year [2]. - Widdcat Resources announced the pre - feasibility study (PFS) results of its Tabba Tabba project in Western Australia, showing strong economic potential [2].

| FERENS 贵金属日评20250804: 美国7月新增非农远不及预期, 市场预期美联储下半年或降息三次 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-28 较昨日变化 较上周变化 | | | 上海黄金 收盘价 767.18 766. 58 771.58 0. 60 -4. 40 | | | 持仓重 206334.00 207044.00 -710.00 210216.00 -3, 882. 00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.28 -3. 48 -2.78 0. 20 -0. 50 | | | 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -3.54 -3. 70 -3. 20 0.16 -0. 34 收盘价 8918.00 9008.00 9212. 00 -90. 00 -294.00 | | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-24 较昨日变化 较上周变化 收盘价 3342. 30 3416. 00 3371.30 73. 70 44. 70 | | | 伦敦黄金现货 伦敦金现 3346 ...

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20250804: "Anti-Involution" Emotions Change Rapidly and Fluctuate Greatly [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 1, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange oscillated downward, with a trading volume of 106,856 lots (-36,962) and an open interest of 96,880 lots (-571). The LME nickel rose 0.56%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, market sentiment has cooled to some extent, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - On August 1, the main stainless steel contract oscillated within a range, with a trading volume of 124,683 lots (-22,659) and an open interest of 89,339 lots (-5,109). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Currently, macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it still takes time for prices to return to fundamentals. Prices are expected to fluctuate following the macro - situation. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Market Futures Market - Shanghai Futures Exchange: The closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of Shanghai nickel futures on August 1 were 119,470 yuan/ton, 119,770 yuan/ton, 119,900 yuan/ton, and 120,160 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 106,856 lots (-36,962), and the open interest was 96,880 lots (-571). The inventory decreased by 331 tons to 21,374 tons [2]. - London Metal Exchange (LME): The official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel on August 1 was 15,440 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the electronic trading session was 15,265 US dollars/ton, and the closing price of the on - site trading session was 14,987 US dollars/ton. The trading volume was 806 lots (7,318 more than before). The registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons [2]. Spot Market - Nickel ore: The average prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9% (CIF), 1.5% (CIF), and 1.8% (CIF) remained unchanged at 29 US dollars/wet ton, 58 US dollars/wet ton, and 79.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [2]. - Nickel products: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 124,650 yuan/ton (-600). The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 125,650 yuan/ton (-550). The average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 124,050 yuan/ton (-550) [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed. In July, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production decreased, and nickel - iron inventories accumulated. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits expanded [2]. - Demand: Ternary production increased; stainless steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory increased [2]. Stainless Steel Market Futures Market - The main stainless steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange oscillated within a range on August 1. The trading volume was 124,683 lots (-22,659), and the open interest was 89,339 lots (-5,109) [2]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless steel production decreased in July [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The price of high - nickel pig iron remained stable, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 64,460 tons (+6,100) [2]. Other Information - In July 2025, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The previous two months were significantly revised down by 258,000 jobs. Traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year [2]. - On July 28, 2025, the London Metal Exchange (LME) officially announced that the "JIEN" brand electrolytic nickel was successfully registered as an LME deliverable brand, with a registered production capacity of 5,000 tons/year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been fluctuating upwards. As a result, there may still be room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,943 lots, a decrease of 28,068 lots; the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 8,522 lots; the inventory was 20,349 tons, an increase of 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, a decrease of 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 70 yuan, a decrease of 595 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions had different changes, such as a 5 - yuan increase in Guangzhou, a 10 - yuan decrease in North China, and no change in East China; the spreads between different contract months also changed, with the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreasing by 70 yuan, and the spreads between other contract months having corresponding increases or decreases [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 141,750 tons; the spreads between different contract periods also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increasing by 1.51 US dollars and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreasing by 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1387, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, an increase of 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: On July 30, 2025, the US government's decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel led to the exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, causing a large amount of electrolytic copper to shift from COMEX warehouses to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Mine Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand the El Teniente mine, including three new ore layers. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion project is expected to contribute 2 - 3 tons of copper production increment in 2025, reaching 15 tons after full - production. The annual output is expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, with 6 people reported dead, and operations in the accident area were suspended for investigation [2]. Market Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The production (import) volume of copper concentrates in China in August is expected to increase month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at Chinese ports has decreased compared to last week. The export restriction of high - quality scrap steel in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper and indirect supply through countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap steel has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window and potentially reducing the production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in August. Some copper smelters have suspended production, such as Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a capacity of 200,000 tons, Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuneb copper smelter in Namibia (annual processing capacity of 240,000 tons of copper concentrates), and Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile with a capacity of 350,000 tons. The Congo's moa - Kakula copper smelter is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton copper reform project is in the pre - work stage, and the second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou Non - ferrous Recycling Copper Resource Recycling Base produced anode copper at the beginning of the month. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) month - on - month, and the capacity of crude copper smelter maintenance in China in August may decrease month - on - month, potentially increasing the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August [2]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional consumption off - season in China has suppressed downstream demand [2].

| FERENS 贵金属日评20250804: 美国7月新增非农远不及预期, 市场预期美联储下半年或降息三次 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-28 较昨日变化 较上周变化 | | | 上海黄金 收盘价 767.18 766. 58 771.58 0. 60 -4. 40 | | | 持仓重 206334.00 207044.00 -710.00 210216.00 -3, 882. 00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.28 -3. 48 -2.78 0. 20 -0. 50 | | | 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -3.54 -3. 70 -3. 20 0.16 -0. 34 收盘价 8918.00 9008.00 9212. 00 -90. 00 -294.00 | | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-24 较昨日变化 较上周变化 收盘价 3342. 30 3416. 00 3371.30 73. 70 44. 70 | | | 伦敦黄金现货 伦敦金现 3346 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the absolute price down 3.2% week-on-week to $846/ton CFR by Friday, and the weekly average price slightly stronger, up 0.6% week-on-week to $856/ton CFR. PTA has new device commissioning plans in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to improve depends on more expected external factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, with social inventory being depleted. However, it is currently the off - season for polyester consumption, and after a significant drop in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工 [2]. - The market has already factored in the impact of the maintenance of a 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China, and the spot basis is weak. Crude oil failed to recover Wednesday's losses, the bulk chemical market continued to be weak, and the PTA market declined. Currently, PTA processing fees are in a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to new device commissioning expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. In a warming macro - environment, PTA may experience an upward trend, but it is difficult to have a trend - type upward market without fundamental resonance. Currently, PTA supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to whether the rumors of maintenance of several PTA devices in early August will materialize. Polyester production cuts are currently on hold, and the开工 rate remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment. From the perspective of industrial chain profits, the strong driving force from the cost side has caused the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain to tilt towards the raw material segment again. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5,900 - 6,020 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The raw materials PTA and bottle chip futures are oscillating at a low level. Most supply - side quotes for bottle chips have been lowered, and the downstream terminal's intention to replenish inventory has improved. Recently, the supply - side operating rate of bottle chips has remained at a low level, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream terminals are replenishing inventory due to low prices, and the market trading atmosphere may decline [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate weakly. (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 1, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.33/barrel, down 2.79% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.67/barrel, down 3.94%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604/ton, down 1.15%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $711.5/ton, down 1.25% [1]. - **PTA**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,744 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the settlement price was 4,762 yuan/ton, down 1.65%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,751 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,740 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, and the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $641/ton (July 31, 2025), down 0.47% [1]. - **PX**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,812 yuan/ton, down 1.67%; the settlement price was 6,846 yuan/ton, down 1.92%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,881 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [1]. - **PR**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,918 yuan/ton, down 0.94%; the settlement price was 5,934 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 0.67%, and in the South China market was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 1, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,560 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,880 yuan/ton, down 1.09%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [2] Operating Conditions - On August 1, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industrial chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA plants was 74.06%, down 2.58 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester plants was 86.15%, down 0.13 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%, unchanged [1]. - On August 1, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 25%, down 2 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 56%, up 7 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 60%, down 12 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China started maintenance on August 1 for about 2 weeks [2] Trading Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton (- 2.02%), with an intraday trading volume of 678,200 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton (- 2.41%), with an intraday trading volume of 141,700 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,918 yuan/ton (- 1.30%), with an intraday trading volume of 21,800 lots [2]

Group 1: Upstream Costs - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/8/1 was $604.00 per ton, down 1.15% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on 2025/8/1 was $821.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of cycloethane in East China on 220//458 was 6300.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/8/1 was 2392.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Pit - mouth price of brown coal (tax - included) in Inner Mongolia (Q3500) on 2025/8/1 was 290.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 2: Futures and Spot Prices - DCE EG主力合约 closing price on 2025/8/1 was 4405.00 yuan per ton, down 0.20% [1] - DCE EG主力合约 settlement price on 2025/8/1 was 4406.00 yuan per ton, down 0.59% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/8/1 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, up 0.89% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/8/1 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Market mid - price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China on 2025/8/1 was 4480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.22% [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic market on 2025/8/1 was 4480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/8/1 was 1.00 yuan per ton, down 26.00 yuan [1] - Basis on 2025/8/1 was 75.00 yuan per ton, up 4.00 yuan [1] Group 3: Operating Conditions - Comprehensive ethylene glycol operating rate on 220//158 was 518.8%, up 0.68% [1] - Operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/1 was 59.42%, up 0.44% [1] - Operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/1 was 57.93%, up 1.04% [1] - PTA industrial chain polyester factory load rate on 2025/8/1 was 86.15%, down 0.13% [1] - PTA industrial chain Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate on 2025/8/1 was 57.83%, unchanged [1] Group 4: Cash Flow and Polyester Prices - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made EG on 2025/8/1 was - 1545.27 yuan per ton, down 39.33 yuan [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - synthetic gas method device on 2025/8/1 was 610.18 yuan per ton, down 8.85 yuan [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/8/1 was 8625.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/8/1 was 7150.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 220//158 was 6560.00 yuan per ton, down 0.53% [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/8/1 was 5950.00 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1]

研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 目录 第一部分 焦煤 第二部分 焦炭 黑色金属周报-双焦 情绪降温 估值回归基本面 1 焦煤 价格方面，本周焦煤现货价格趋稳运行。截至7月31日，唐山蒙5仓单1007元/吨 (-)，安泽主焦煤 仓单1134元/吨(+100)，进口煤方面，加拿大鹿景仓单价格945元/吨（+7）；期货方面，焦煤主力合约 价格大幅下行，环比上一交易周下跌17.14%，JM9-1价差-107.5(-48）元/吨。 基本面方面，从供应端来看，能源局超产检查继续，个别超产企业被通报有减产行为，且部分企业 因查超产以及井下原因等因素产量恢复缓慢，供应端扰动仍存，短期仍将延续偏紧格局。钢联数据显示， 本期炼焦煤（523家）开工率86.31%，环比下降0.59%，日均精煤产量77.67万吨，环比下降0.06万吨； 需求方面，现货市场情绪谨慎，焦炭提涨存有博弈，价格调整后成交走弱，竞拍市场流拍情况略有增加， 但产地煤矿预售订单尚可，煤矿库存持续下降，短期现货煤价仍主体偏稳。数据显示，钢联523口径精 煤库存248.26万吨，环比下降30.18万吨。进口海运煤方 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro factors such as the "anti - involution" sentiment in China and the US non - farm payroll data have an impact. Fundamentally, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation. Short - term zinc prices are also expected to trade in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.75% to 16,550 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract remained unchanged at 16,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.73% to 47,634 lots, while the open interest increased by 5.10% to 76,338 lots. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 275,325 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.87% to 59,948 tons [1]. - **Industry News**: From July 25th to July 31st, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 63.9%, a 0.53 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 44.4%, a 3.7 - percentage - point increase; and the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.86%, remaining flat. The pb50TC processing fee of a silver - lead mine in North China was lowered to - 500 yuan/metal ton at the end of July [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited raw material supply. As the inventory of electrolytic lead factories decreases, the market's acceptance of high - priced secondary lead has improved. The market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases at the end of the month for inventory checks [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract decreased by 0.11% to 22,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 42.45% to 105,121 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2.17% to 108,084 lots. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 100,825 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.50% to 14,982 tons [1]. - **Industry News**: From July 25th to July 31st, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 56.77%, a 2.65 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 48.24%, a 2.79 - percentage - point decrease; and the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.13%, a 0.14 - percentage - point increase. On July 31st, Nexa announced the completion of key milestones in the first phase of its Cerro Pasco integration project. The company's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 74,000 metal tons, a 9% increase from the previous quarter but a 12% decrease year - on - year. The total sales volume of refined zinc and zinc oxide in the second quarter was 145,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous quarter [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. It is expected that the zinc concentrate processing fee in August will continue to increase, weakening cost support. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with a clear trend of increased production. Although downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved due to the recent decline in zinc prices, terminal demand is in the off - season, and enterprise operating rates have declined [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market has seen a recent rebound in both futures and spot prices, but considering the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the market, the market is expected to adjust. However, bullish sentiment may still fluctuate, so caution is needed in operations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by silicon enterprises [1]. - The polysilicon market has also seen a continuous upward trend in the futures market since the end of June. Although the recent sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates. The market is volatile, and caution is required in operations. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.97% to 8,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, as silicon prices continue to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, with the arrival of the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise operations have steadily increased. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, so supply is expected to increase steadily. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increments. For the silicone industry, a major factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. With the support of silicon prices on the cost side, silicone prices have continued to rise. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material increased 1.10% to 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 1.08% to 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material increased 1.12% to 45 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.14% to 49,200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, production is expected to increase slightly, with July's production approaching 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials rising. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved, but the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Other Information - The component procurement of the 1350MW solar photovoltaic power station project of Dongying Huiyang Clean Energy Co., Ltd.'s fourth - phase fishery - photovoltaic complementary project has been terminated due to policy adjustments. Another project in Dongying City, Lijin County, with an installed capacity of 975MWp, is planned to be invested about 741 million yuan [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the 2025 special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry, requiring local industrial and information technology departments to complete the supervision and submit results by September 30, 2025 [1].