Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On July 31, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined, with trading volume at 521,849 lots (-271,060) and open interest at 229,368 lots (-43,385). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. On the cost side, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price also dropped. In terms of supply, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased. Regarding downstream demand, last week, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate decreased, while that of ternary materials increased. In July, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and that of lithium manganate increased slightly. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In July, the production schedule of energy storage batteries increased. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 5,545 tons (-6,731), and the social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Overall, commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's restrictions cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate. In operation, it is recommended to appropriately stop losses on put options [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Contract Closing Prices**: On July 31, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 68,000 yuan/ton, 68,280 yuan/ton, 68,600 yuan/ton, and 68,600 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 521,849 lots (-271,060), and the open interest was 229,368 lots (-43,385) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 5,545 tons (-6,731) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 280 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 320 yuan/ton (-340), and the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 3,720 yuan/ton (+1,370) [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Products - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all decreased, with decreases ranging from 10 to 375 dollars/ton or yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder type lithium hydroxide increased by 200 yuan/ton. The price of 99.95% domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 53,250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads of Lithium Compounds**: The spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 6,330 yuan/ton (+1,150), and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,100 yuan/ton (0) [1]. 3.3 Other Battery Materials - **Ternary Precursor and Material Prices**: The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials generally showed small changes, with increases or decreases ranging from 30 to 100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Prices**: The average prices of power - type, mid - high - end energy - storage type, and low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 305, 330, and 330 yuan/ton respectively [1][2]. - **Electrolyte Prices**: The average prices of electrolytes for ternary power, lithium iron phosphate, and manganese acid lithium remained unchanged, while the prices of electrolytes for cobalt acid lithium and other types were 0 [1]. - **Cobalt Spot Prices**: The average prices of electrolytic cobalt, cobalt sulfate, and tricobalt tetroxide increased by 5,500, 125, and 150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.4 Inventory - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,726 tons (-1,444), with smelters' inventory at 21,958 tons (-3,427), downstream inventory at 45,888 tons (+3,073), and other inventory at 43,880 tons (-1,090) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price has shown a correction. With no unexpected news in the fundamentals, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate weakly (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: -1) [2]. - PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. The supply of PTA is currently sufficient, and attention should be paid to whether the rumors of maintenance of several PTA plants in early August will be fulfilled [2]. - The polyester production cut is currently on hold, and the operation remains relatively stable. The negative feedback from weaving has only reached the polyester segment so far [2]. - The profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain has once again tilted towards the raw material segment due to the strong driving force of the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of July 31, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $69.26 per barrel, down 1.06%; Brent crude oil was $72.53 per barrel, down 0.97%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $611 per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $725.5 per ton, up 2.26%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $857 per ton, down 1.08% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,808 yuan per ton, down 0.99%; the settlement price was 4,842 yuan per ton, down 0.57%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,831 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,826 yuan per ton, down 0.66%; the external price index was $644 per ton, up 0.63% [1]. - **PX**: As of July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,928 yuan per ton, down 0.80%; the settlement price was 6,980 yuan per ton, down 0.14%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,859 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $246 per ton, down 4.68%; the PX - MX spread was $131.5 per ton, down 16.15% [1]. - **PR**: On July 31, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.67%; the settlement price was 5,996 yuan per ton, down 0.66%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 6,050 yuan per ton, down 0.49% [1]. - **Downstream**: As of July 31, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY 68D and 150D increased by 0.72% to 6,950 yuan per ton; the price index of polyester short - fiber decreased by 0.23% to 6,595 yuan per ton [2]. Operating Conditions - As of July 31, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain remained unchanged at 77.29%. The load rate of PTA plants was 76.64%, down 2.81 percentage points; the load rate of polyester plants remained unchanged at 86.28%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants remained unchanged at 71.93%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.83%, down 0.92 percentage points [1]. Production and Sales - As of July 31, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 27%, down 83 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 49%, up 6 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 72%, down 17 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important Information - EIA data shows that both crude oil and refined oil products in the US have accumulated inventories, but the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the uncertainty brought by Trump's sanctions on Russia have overshadowed these negative factors, causing oil prices to continue a relatively strong trend [2]. - New PTA devices are scheduled to be put into operation in the third quarter, resulting in a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected supporting factors [2]. - During the off - season of polyester consumption, after the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operation [2]. - Although some PTA devices in East China have short - term shutdowns and reduced loads, the impact on production is small, and the boost to the PTA market is limited [2]. - The overall market of bulk chemicals is weak, and the PTA market has declined. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - level range, but unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season demand [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1] - For the zinc market, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. Fundamentals are weak, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market 3.1.1 Price Movements - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract dropped by 0.92% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.13%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.21% [1] 3.1.2 Market Fundamentals - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had a slight decline in production due to equipment maintenance last week [1] - The price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and recyclers' supplies are limited. Some refineries reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion, but the acceptance of recycled lead prices has improved, and the start - up rate is gradually recovering [1] - On the demand side, overall supply and demand are increasing, and there are no obvious contradictions in the lead market. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices [1] 3.1.3 Investment Strategy - Short - term lead prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3.2 Zinc Market 3.2.1 Price Movements - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 1.68% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract dropped by 1.43% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.20%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.24% [1] 3.2.2 Market Fundamentals - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,800 yuan/ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased [1] - The cost support at the raw material end has weakened, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output increase trend is obvious [1] - During the week, zinc prices continued to rise, and downstream off - season purchases significantly decreased [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, demand is in the off - season, and inventory continues to accumulate [1] 3.2.3 Investment Strategy - Short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1] 3.3 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Heavy Metal Environmental Safety Hidden Danger Investigation and Rectification Action Plan (2025 - 2030)", focusing on 5 provinces (autonomous regions) and 21 cities (prefectures) [1] - A recycled lead smelter in the northwest plans to stop production due to multiple factors such as market downturn, raw material shortage, and water use restrictions [1] - Starting from July 31, 2025, certain products can be used for the performance and delivery of the zinc ingot futures contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - The zinc ore tender price of a mine in the southwest in August is about 4,000 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of about 200 yuan/metal ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market may experience adjustments due to factors such as the resumption of production in some silicon plants and the overall low inventory - stocking willingness of downstream enterprises, while the bullish sentiment may still fluctuate. The polysilicon market has large - scale price fluctuations, and the sentiment has weakened but may still be volatile, so operations in both markets need to be cautious [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) decreased by 2.05% to 9,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 0.98% to 10,150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 5.65% to 8,760 yuan/ton [1] - **Production and Inventory**: In July 2025, the industrial silicon output was 338,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 2.2112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0%. As of July 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 540,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons [1] - **Cost**: Affected by the slight increase in the price of raw coking coal in Gansu, the overall price of silicon coal increased slightly. The price of silicon mixed coal increased by 40 yuan/ton to 880 yuan/ton, and the price of silicon coal particles increased by 30 yuan/ton to 990 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the power cost in the southwest production area has decreased, with the enterprise's start - up rate steadily rising. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, and the organic silicon price continues to rise, while silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, while the closing price of the futures main contract dropped 10.19% to 49,130 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, but the trading atmosphere has improved recently [1]

镍与不锈钢日评20250731:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-23 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-30 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 123220.00 | 121520.00 | 121620.00 | -100.00 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 121720.00 | 121800.00 | 123370.00 | -80.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 121850.00 | 121930.00 | 123540.00 | -80.00 | | | | | | 123770.00 | -50.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 122060.00 | 122110.00 | 121720.00 | 121800.00 | 123370.00 | -80.00 | 收盘价 | | | ...

| HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-07-30 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-22 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 14945 天然橡胶 | 15010 | 15060 | -65.00 | | | 成交量(手) 377621 | 369834 | 567016 | | 7,787.00 ----- | | 期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) 193642 | 198795 | 216311 | -5.153.00 ~~~~ | | | 注册仓单量 179910 | 181920 | 186620 | -2,010.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 30 | -135 | -85 | 165.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 天津-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -175 | -125 | -125 | -50.00 | | | (现货与期货) 山东-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -200 | -200 | -175 | 0.00 - | | | 云南-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 2 ...

Report Highlights - Since no investment rating for the industry is provided, this part is skipped. - As there is no clear core view presented, this part is skipped. Price and Market Information - On July 31, 2025, the price of refined naphtha was $608.30 per ton, up 3.23% from the previous day [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the price index of Northeast Asia ethylene was $821.00 per ton, showing no change [1] - On July 31, 2025, the ex - factory price of East China ethylene oxide was 6,450 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the spot price of methanol was 2,405 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the pit - mouth price of Inner Mongolia lignite (Q3500) was 290 yuan per ton, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of GD was 4,450 yuan per ton, down 0.38% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the settlement price of the main contract of GD was 4,465 yuan per ton, up 0.34% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the closing price of the nearby contract of GD was 4,423 yuan per ton, up 0.02% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the settlement price of the nearby contract of GD was 4,420 yuan per ton, up 0.07% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the mid - market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,520 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of ethylene glycol was 4,515 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the price difference between far and near months was - 45 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the basis was 65 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - As of July 30, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 58.13%, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of ethylene glycol from naphtha was 58.98%, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of ethylene glycol from coal was 56.89%, remaining unchanged [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the production load rate of polyester plants in the APT industry chain was 86.28%, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the production load rate of textile machines in Zhejiang in the APT industry chain was 58.75%, with no change [1] Cash Flow and Profitability - As of July 29, 2025, the external market profit of ethylene glycol from naphtha was - $95.29 per ton, a decrease of $12.09 [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the external market profit of ethylene glycol from ethylene was - $103.65 per ton, an increase of $3.00 [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the post - tax gross profit of G produced by MMT was - 1,573.30 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.79 yuan [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas unit was 667.70 yuan per ton, with no change [1] Polyester Price Index - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of polyester yarn was 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.29% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of POY polyester yarn was 7,150 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,610 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,000 yuan per ton, showing no change [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of international crude oil has continued to rise due to geopolitical relations and other factors, which has strengthened the cost support for PX. The domestic PX supply level is low, demand is good, and the fundamental boosting effect still exists. However, whether the PX benefit can continue to rise depends on whether there are more unexpected factors. [2] - The cost of PTA is pushed up by the rising crude oil, but the spot basis has weakened due to the shipment of the main PTA suppliers. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and it is difficult to boost the price due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has risen, but the market trading atmosphere is light. The supply side's starting level remains low, and the market supply is abundant, while the downstream terminal's buying enthusiasm is not high. [2] - Without more unexpected positive factors, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 30, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased by 1.14% and 1.01% respectively compared with the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, etc. also showed varying degrees of increase. [1] - **PTA**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA's main and near - month contracts, as well as the domestic spot price and CCFEI price index, all increased to different extents on July 30, 2025. The near - far month spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10 yuan/ton. [1] - **PX**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX's main and near - month contracts increased on July 30, 2025. The domestic spot price remained unchanged, and the spot prices in other regions increased slightly. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread decreased. [1] - **PR**: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR's main contract increased slightly on July 30, 2025, while the closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract decreased slightly. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets showed different trends, and the basis also changed accordingly. [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of some polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, and short - fiber increased slightly on July 30, 2025, while some remained unchanged. [2] Operating Conditions - On July 30, 2025, the PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.29%. The PTA factory load rate decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 79.45%, while the load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament increased by 77 percentage points to 110%, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber decreased by 10 percentage points to 43%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased by 21 percentage points to 89%. [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1. [2] Trading Strategy - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton (0.41%) with an intraday trading volume of 540,300 lots. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,984 yuan/ton (0.66%) with an intraday trading volume of 143,500 lots. The PR2509 contract closed at 6,014 yuan/ton (0.00%) with an intraday trading volume of 33,700 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250731: Rapid Mood Swings and High Volatility [2] 2. Core View - On July 30, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium increased. With the cost side showing a decline in spodumene concentrate prices but flat mica prices, supply side seeing a decrease in carbonate lithium production last week, and downstream demand showing mixed trends (rising production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, falling production of cobalt acid lithium and manganese acid lithium in June, and rising power battery production last week). Terminal demand had continued year - on - year growth in new energy vehicle production and sales in June but a month - on - month decline in sales, and average 3C shipments. Storage battery production increased in June. With inventory showing compact registered warehouse receipts, destocking in smelters, and inventory accumulation in other sectors. Due to large fluctuations in commodity sentiment and exchange position limits cooling the market, short - term carbonate lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold put options [3] 3. Key Data 3.1 Futures Data - **Closing Prices**: Near - month contract closed at 70,260 yuan/ton (-200 from the previous day), continuous - one contract at 70,600 yuan/ton (-240), continuous - two contract at 70,580 yuan/ton (+20), continuous - three contract at 70,580 yuan/ton (+20) [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Active contract trading volume was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867) [3] - **Warehouse Inventory**: 12,276 tons (unchanged) [3] - **Spreads**: Near - month minus continuous - one was -340 yuan/ton (+40), continuous - one minus continuous - two was 20 yuan/ton (-260), continuous - two minus continuous - three was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3] - **Basis**: SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium average price minus carbonate lithium active contract closing price was 2,350 yuan/ton (+40) [3] 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: Spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars/ton (-1), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,140 yuan/ton (unchanged), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton (unchanged), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,675 yuan/ton (+75), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,625 yuan/ton (+125) [3] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: Battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%, domestic) was 72,950 yuan/ton (-200), industrial - grade carbonate lithium (99.2%, domestic) was 70,850 yuan/ton (-150), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, South Korea) was 8.28 US dollars/kg (unchanged), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic, coarse particles) was 65,470 yuan/ton (+50), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic, fine powder) was 70,620 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - **Price Spreads**: Battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade carbonate lithium spread was -7,480 yuan/ton (+250), battery - grade carbonate lithium and industrial - grade carbonate lithium spread was 2,100 yuan/ton (-50), CIF China, Japan, South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide spread was -6,316.85 yuan/ton (-107.96) [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: Smelters had 55,385 tons (-2,654 compared to the previous week), downstream had 42,815 tons (+1,544), others had 44,970 tons (+1,660), and the total was 143,170 tons (+550) [3] 4. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with directors Waller and Bowman voting against and advocating for a rate cut [3] - On July 30, Pilbara Minerals announced its lithium spodumene concentrate production in the fourth fiscal quarter was 221,300 tons, and sales volume reached 216,000 tons, showing stable performance in lithium ore production and market supply [3] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients in the carbonate lithium futures LC2509 contract to no more than 500 lots, and in LC2510, LC2511, LC2512, LC2601 contracts to no more than 2,000 lots each [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - On July 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell during the session. The trading volume was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium increased. The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price remained flat. Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production scheduling of ternary materials rose. In June, the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 (+0) tons, the social inventory was tight, smelters destocked, and downstream and others restocked. Overall, the commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's position limit cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to hold put options [3] Summary by Relevant Data Futures Market Data - **Prices**: The closing prices of the near - month contract, the first - continuous contract, the second - continuous contract, and the third - continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures were 70,260 yuan/ton, 70,600 yuan/ton, 70,580 yuan/ton, and 70,580 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month contract decreased by 200 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract decreased by 240 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,276 tons, with no change compared with the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The spreads of near - month - first - continuous, first - continuous - second - continuous, and second - continuous - third - continuous were - 340 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month - first - continuous spread increased by 40 yuan/ton, the first - continuous - second - continuous spread decreased by 260 yuan/ton, and the second - continuous - third - continuous spread remained unchanged [3] - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 2,350 yuan/ton on July 30, 2025, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars/ton on July 30, 2025, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous day. The average prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) were 1,140 yuan/ton, 1,775 yuan/ton, 5,675 yuan/ton, and 6,625 yuan/ton respectively, with 0, 0, 75, and 125 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, micronized), and other lithium compounds had different changes on July 30, 2025, compared with the previous day. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide were - 7,480 yuan/ton, 2,100 yuan/ton, and - 6,316.85 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025, with 250, - 50, and - 107.96 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] Inventory Data - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory on July 24, 2025, was 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters was 55,385 tons (-2,654 tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 42,815 tons (+1,544 tons compared with the previous week), and the inventory of others was 44,970 tons (+1,660 tons compared with the previous week) [3] Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% unchanged, and governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest rate cut [3] - On July 30, 2025, Pilbara Minerals announced that its spodumene concentrate production in the fourth fiscal quarter was 221,300 tons, and the sales volume reached 216,000 tons [3] - Non - futures company members or customers are restricted in the single - day opening positions of lithium carbonate futures contracts. For example, the single - day opening position in the LC2509 contract shall not exceed 500 lots, and in the LC2510, LC2511, LC2512, LC2601 contracts, it shall not exceed 2,000 lots [3]