Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong, and the news of lithium mine复产 is repeated The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, the downstream观望 sentiment is still strong, the spot market trading is light, the demand growth is stagnant, and the exchange intervenes to cool down It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Near - two - week Market Trends - **Futures Prices**: On December 2, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 94,960 yuan/ton, 94,860 yuan/ton, 95,140 yuan/ton, and 95,140 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 yuan/ton, - 260 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and - 420 yuan/ton compared to the previous day The trading volume was 454,290 lots (- 81,185), and the open interest was 552,239 lots (+ 8,606) [2] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, and cathode materials also showed different degrees of change [2] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures prices also changed For example, the basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the active contract closing price of lithium carbonate was - 2,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Industry News Kodal Minerals shipped 28,950 tons of lithium minerals from its Bougouni mine in southern Mali to a destination port in Hainan, China The company has produced a total of 45,000 tons of concentrates at the Bougouni concentrator, and the remaining 16,000 tons will be gradually exported in batches The expected unit price of the lithium concentrate will exceed 930 US dollars/dry ton [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased in salt - lake production but increased in other raw material production The registered warehouse receipts were 8,992 tons (+ 770 tons), and the social inventory situation was also provided [2] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased In December, the production scheduling of lithium carbonate and lithium decreased, and the production of power batteries rebounded last week In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the shipment volume weakened, and the production scheduling growth of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [2] 3.4 Inventory Situation The SNN lithium carbonate inventory includes inventories of smelters, downstream, and others The total inventory was 118,420 tons, showing a certain change trend compared to previous periods [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which suppresses the upside space of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.51% to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.86% to 8,975 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: In terms of supply, the suspension of production of silicon enterprises in the southwest production period has basically been implemented, and the start - up is at a low level within the year. The start - up in the north is relatively stable, and it is expected that the industrial silicon output will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons in December. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may reduce the demand for industrial silicon, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at a low level is limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The trading strategy is range - bound operation [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, the price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 52.35 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg, the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 2.41% to 56,315 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, it is expected that the output will still increase slightly in October, but the output in November will decrease to about 120,000 tons month - on - month. On the demand side, the prices of the industrial chain are under pressure to decline. Although the polysilicon price is still strong, the market transactions are relatively light, there are few new transactions, and the downstream has a strong resistance to high - price resources [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being [1]. India's Photovoltaic Market Information - **New - installed Capacity Forecast**: JK Research predicts that India will add about 41.5GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in the fiscal year 2026 (the 12 - month period ending on March 31, 2026), including about 32GW in large - scale power station projects, about 8GW in rooftop photovoltaics, and about 1.5GW in off - grid systems. From January to September 2025, India added about 22.5GW of large - scale photovoltaic installed capacity, a year - on - year increase of 70.3%, and about 5.8GW of rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity, a year - on - year increase of 81.6%. It is expected that about 15.68GW of large - scale photovoltaic projects will be connected to the grid from October 2025 to March 2026 [1]. - **Top Developers**: As of September 30, 2025, the top five developers in India in terms of cumulative installed and under - construction project capacity are Adani (40.5GW), ReNew (22.9GW), NTPC (16.9GW), Greenko (15.4GW), and JSW Energy (15.12GW) [1]. - **Inverter Supply**: In the third quarter of 2025 (July - September), India added 8.06GW of large - scale photovoltaic installed capacity and 2.7GW of rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity. In terms of inverter supply, Sungrow ranked first with a supply of 3.76GW, TBEA followed closely with a supply of 3.1GW, and Sineng ranked third with a supply of 2.6GW [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply in supply and demand. However, from the perspective of driving factors, urea prices are supported at low levels. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to opportunities for buying on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On December 2, UR01 closed at 1,687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.72%) from December 1; UR05 closed at 1,752 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.46%); UR09 closed at 1,768 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.28%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Shandong was 1,680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.59%); Shanxi was 1,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.65%); Henan and Hebei remained unchanged; Northeast was 1,740 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (1.16%); Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was -72 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was -65 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.33%); the price of another fertilizer was 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.77%); the price of melamine in Shandong was 5,217 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (0.52%); in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, down 5,200 yuan (-100%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,680 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,689 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,687 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,682 yuan/ton. The position volume was 219,302 lots [1]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Logic - **Valuation**: The rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - **Driving Factors**: A new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].

能源化工周报—MEG 国内供应压力部分缓解 2025年12月2日 研究所 王江楠 TEL：010-82295006 从业资格证号：F03108382 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021543 一、主要观点 主要逻辑 3 周内乙二醇止跌修复，主要原因是成本支撑。近期乙二醇装置 检修与重启并存，但后续新装置投产预期仍在，供应端仍有潜 在增量空间。下游聚酯进入淡季，开工已出现小幅下滑，供需 结构整体偏弱。随着兖矿、红四方等煤制装置出料提负，煤制 开工开始回升，供需双弱下价格修复程度有限。 下周预测：成本端，地缘冲突短期磋商成功的概率较低，预计 油价窄幅波动；产地煤矿保安全意识较强，部分有主动控制产 量计划，煤价窄幅偏弱调整为主。供应端，12月上旬关注盛虹 炼化以及富德能源检修落地，后续正达凯装置将重启。需求端， 聚酯负荷阶段性支撑较强，且有新装置的开车预期。港口库存 方面，11月份沙特货实际到港量创今年内最高值，12月中东货 源依旧难见明显减量。 综合来看，预计乙二醇区间运行，运行区间为3750-3950元/吨 运行，保持观望。 二、盘面及现货情况 盘面走势：成本助力下的修复 数据来源：Wind 5 周内成交106万手 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upward space of methanol 01 contract is limited. The downstream MTO profit is poor, and further price increases may lead to negative demand feedback. The downstream restocking willingness is weak due to profit levels and high inventories, and the inland profit is also poor [4][39]. - Previously, it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for the 01 contract and pay attention to long opportunities in the far - month contracts. Currently, it is suggested to hold the 01 put - selling option until maturity, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of the 01 contract [4][39]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From November 17 to December 1, the methanol market rebounded from the bottom, mainly due to the expected changes brought by the implementation of Iranian plant shutdowns, which was in line with previous judgments [4][9][39]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis remained stable, and the near - far month spread rebounded slightly. The near - month price, which was previously oversold, rebounded relatively more due to the change in expectations. On November 17, the basis in East China was - 19 yuan/ton, and on December 1, it was - 16 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton on November 17, dropped to - 137 yuan/ton on November 19, and rebounded to - 96 yuan/ton on December 1 [10]. 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - The profit of upstream coal - to - methanol slightly rebounded. The inland methanol price was relatively stronger than that in coastal areas, and the recent slight decline in coal prices led to the profit rebound. However, it is still the peak coal - using season, and the cost is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the methanol price. Last week, the coal - to - methanol operation rate remained stable at a high level, while the gas - to - methanol operation rate declined. As of December 1, the Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price was 821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to November 17, and the Datong steam - coal wagon - board price was 710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. As of November 27, the weekly operation rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 82.42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.17 percentage points; the weekly operation rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 45.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.19 percentage points [12]. 3.2 Inventory - The turning point of port inventory accumulation has appeared. After the implementation of Iranian plant shutdowns, the import pressure of methanol in the first quarter of next year will be greatly relieved. As of the week of November 27, the total port inventory was 116.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.57 million tons. The inland inventory was lower than the same period in previous years. However, the impact of Iranian plant shutdowns on imports is mainly in January - February next year, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction and high port inventory are difficult to solve in the 01 contract [18]. 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - The profit of downstream MTO has significantly deteriorated, especially in the northwest region, mainly due to the weak price of downstream polyolefins. As of November 27, the weekly operation rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 86.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.76 percentage points; the weekly operation rate of enterprises purchasing methanol externally for olefin production was 82.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.75 percentage points. The MTO demand restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [22]. 4.2 Traditional Demand - The weighted operation rate of traditional downstream industries slightly rebounded, mainly due to the increase in the acetic acid operation rate. However, winter is still the off - season for traditional demand, and the demand for methanol is limited [29]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The market review is the same as the previous part. The view is that the 01 contract put - selling option should be held until maturity, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of the 01 contract. The strategy is to hold the 01 put - selling option until maturity [39][40].

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel" [1] Report Date - December 2, 2025 [3] 1. Nickel Investment Strategy - Strategy: Wait and see [5][92] - Operating range: 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][92] - Logic: Supply side has flat nickel ore prices, increased arrivals last week, and port de - stocking; domestic and Indonesian iron - plant production decreased with nickel - iron inventory accumulation, and domestic refined nickel production decreased with narrowing import losses. Demand side shows decreased production of ternary materials and precursors, decreased stainless - steel plant production, and stable alloy electroplating demand. Inventory side indicates increased pure - nickel social inventory and decreased bonded - area inventory last week. Overall, the fundamentals are loose with high inventory pressure, but the valuation is low, and with repeated interest - rate cut expectations, a weak recovery of nickel prices is expected after the previous decline [5][92] 2. Stainless Steel Investment Strategy - Strategy: Sell on rallies [6][118] - Operating range: 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][118] - Logic: Fundamentally, stainless - steel plant production is decreasing, and terminal demand is weak. Cost - side support is continuously weakening with falling nickel - pig iron prices and flat high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Inventory shows total inventory accumulation and 300 - series inventory accumulation. Overall, weak demand, a loose fundamental pattern, and continuous cost weakening are expected to lead to low - level oscillations of stainless - steel prices [6][118] 3. Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated upward with a weekly increase of 1.99%, trading volume reaching 624,700 lots (+58,900), and open interest reaching 127,300 lots (-33,400). LME nickel increased by 2.53% weekly, with trading volume at 34,400 lots (-8,700) [10] - The basis premium was 1,900 yuan/ton [12] 4. Nickel Supply Side 4.1 Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores were flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was flat [18] - In October, the Philippines' nickel - ore export volume rebounded, and China's nickel - ore import volume reached 4.68 million tons, a 23.4% month - on - month decrease and an 11.0% year - on - year increase [23] - Last week, the nickel - ore arrival volume increased by 122,900 tons week - on - week, and the nickel - ore port inventory decreased by 30,000 wet tons [25] 4.2 Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 7.5 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron was flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium of nickel pig iron to scrap stainless steel narrowed [31] - In October, China's nickel - iron import volume was 905,000 tons, a 16.6% month - on - month decrease and a 31.0% year - on - year increase. The import volume is expected to remain stable in November [35] - BF profit shrank with a decrease in the operating rate, and RKEF losses widened with a decrease in the operating rate [39] - In December, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic and Indonesian nickel pig iron decreased [42] - Nickel - iron inventory accumulated [44] 4.3 Electrolytic Nickel - In December, the operating rate of refined nickel increased, and production recovered [48] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed [52] - In October, the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [56] 5. Nickel Demand Side 5.1 Stainless Steel - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [61][109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in November [65][110] 5.2 New Energy - The price of pure nickel increased, the price of nickel sulfate decreased, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel narrowed. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [70] - In December, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate decreased, with month - on - month decreases of 7.8%, 6.7%, and 7.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 4.3%, 37.3%, and 19.7% respectively [75][77] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [83] 6. Nickel Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased, and LME nickel inventory increased [84] - Last week, Shanghai bonded - area pure - nickel inventory decreased by 200 tons, and the six - region total social inventory increased by 3,090 tons [88] 7. Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel by purchasing high - grade nickel matte and MHP externally decreased, while the cost of producing electrolytic nickel by purchasing nickel sulfate externally increased. MHP integrated production of electrolytic nickel has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [91] 8. Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless - steel futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly increase of 0.04%, and the basis shrank to 925 yuan/ton. Trading volume reached 699,400 lots (+82,800), and open interest reached 117,400 lots (-53,800) [95] 9. Stainless Steel Cost and Profit - The price of high - nickel pig iron fell, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was flat, with weakening cost - side support [98] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel decreased, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel decreased, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel increased [103] 10. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [61][109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in November [65][110] 11. Stainless Steel Inventory Side - Domestic stainless - steel social inventory increased. 200 - series and 300 - series inventory increased, while 400 - series inventory decreased [116]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In December, entering the policy window period, domestic and foreign macro - factors boost market expectations, and steel prices may rebound from low levels. Currently, the fundamentals have limited driving force, and short - term macro expectations may drive steel prices to recover from low levels, so cautious operation is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Price**: In November, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. As of the end of the month, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the end of October; the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the end of October [5]. - **Output**: On November 27, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of steel mills decreased by 10.2 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 22.09 tons. The apparent demand was 888 tons, down 6.16 tons month - on - month [5]. - **Profit**: As of November 28, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive tax cost of rebar was 3,199 yuan/ton, with a profit of about +21 yuan/ton; the profit of hot - rolled coil was about 20 yuan/ton. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate power cost of rebar in East China was about 3,243 yuan/ton, and the off - peak power cost was about 3,107 yuan/ton. The flat - rate power profit of rebar was about - 83 yuan/ton, and the off - peak power profit was about +53 yuan/ton [5]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of November 27, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.9%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 51.4 tons, up 0.59 tons month - on - month. The overall demand for scrap steel is expected to increase, and the scrap steel price may rebound [6]. - **Macro Data**: In 2025 from January to October, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% year - on - year [24]. 3.2 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar shrank this week [38]. 3.3 Supply - **Long - Process**: As of November 28, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from November 21; the daily average pig iron output was 234.7 tons, down 1.6 tons from November 21 [41]. - **Short - Process**: As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.9%, up 0.9 percentage points; as of November 28, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was 112.35 yuan, up 46.32 yuan [44]. 3.4 Demand - **Rebar**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 176.74 tons, down 4.43 tons; the short - process output was 29.34 tons, up 2.55 tons. The original sample rebar mill inventory was 146.73 tons, down 6.59 tons; the social inventory was 384.75 tons, down 15.27 tons; the total inventory was 531.48 tons, down 21.86 tons [57][72]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coil was 319.01 tons, up 3 tons month - on - month. The apparent demand was 320.22 tons, down 4.2 tons month - on - month. The mill inventory remained flat month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 1.21 tons, and the overall inventory decreased by 1.21 tons [75]. - **Export**: As of November 28, the FOB export price of China was 450 US dollars, up 5 US dollars; the export profit was - 19 US dollars, down 0.1 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 222.26 tons, down 83.04 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month decline of 27% [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, market risk appetite has risen, and the upward pressure on non - ferrous metals has weakened. The raw material end is tightening, TC is prone to fall but hard to rise, some smelters have maintenance arrangements, and there are expectations of production cuts. Although LME zinc inventories continue to rise, the speed is slow, and the back structure has deepened again, providing some support for zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a wide - range consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.31% to 22,300 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose by 0.13% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose by 1.97% to 3,051 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents various data charts of basis, spread (including spot premium and discount in different regions, differences between contract months), etc., but no specific summarized analysis is provided in the text [14][16]. 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Pay Attention to the Ingot - End Starting Situation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of November 28, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 302,000 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons compared with the previous period. The CZSPT's latest quarterly meeting announced that the guidance price range for the US - dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrate procurement before the end of the first quarter of 2026 is 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton (average value) [34]. - **Profit**: As of December 1, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,942 yuan/metal ton. In October, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 4.3489 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59% [41]. - **Processing Fees**: Both domestic and imported TC have continued to decline. As of November 28, 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate index was 61.25 US dollars/dry ton [42]. 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production Profit**: Due to the decline in zinc prices and TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to decline. As of December 1, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 1,952 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot production in November will slightly decline to about 610,000 tons [51]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window has been closed. As of November 28, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 277,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 100,600 tons [55]. 3.3 Orders are Light, Galvanizing Start - Up Rate Declines - **Start - Up Rate**: The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 56.54%. In the off - season of consumption, demand declined, and orders were generally flat [62]. - **Inventory**: Both the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased. During the week, zinc prices fluctuated and sorted out, and galvanizing enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed, resulting in a slight reduction in raw material inventory. Due to poor demand, downstream purchases were average, and finished - product inventory fluctuated slightly [65]. 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Start - Up Rate Fluctuates Slightly - **Price**: The prices of die - casting zinc alloys declined. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.30% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.30% to 23,595 yuan/ton [74]. - **Start - Up Rate**: The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate increased by 0.28 percentage points to 51.3%. Some enterprises increased production during the week, driving a slight increase in the start - up rate. In the terminal market, electronic orders performed well, while real - estate hardware, auto - parts orders, and luggage zipper orders were generally flat or did not meet expectations [77]. - **Inventory**: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased. During the week, zinc prices fluctuated and sorted out, and alloy factories replenished inventory when prices were low, driving an increase in raw material inventory. The finished - product inventory decreased as shipments improved slightly [81]. 3.5 Some Enterprises Increase Production, Zinc Oxide Start - Up Rate Increases Slightly - **Price**: The price of zinc oxide declined. The average price of zinc oxide ≥ 99.7% decreased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton [89]. - **Start - Up Rate**: The zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.12 percentage points to 57.37%. Some enterprises increased production, driving an increase in the start - up rate. In terms of demand, electronic - grade demand was good, the ceramic - grade terminal's goods - taking rhythm accelerated, but enterprise profits were compressed, feed - grade demand weakened, and rubber - grade orders were relatively stable [92]. - **Inventory**: Both the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased. Enterprises replenished inventory as needed, and previous arrivals were put into storage, resulting in an increase in raw material inventory. Some terminal demand slowed down, leading to a slight accumulation of finished - product inventory [95]. 3.6 Decrease in Arrivals, Decline in Zinc Ingot Social Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of November 27, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 140,800 tons, and the inventory continued to decline. Some smelters had maintenance during the week, and the arrivals in Guangdong and Shanghai were relatively small. Coupled with downstream pick - ups, the zinc ingot social inventory declined. The SMM zinc ingot bonded - area inventory was 3,600 tons, unchanged from the previous period [102]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 28, the SHFE inventory was 95,900 tons, a decrease, and the LME inventory was 52,000 tons, continuing to rise [105]. - **Downstream Raw Material Inventory**: The report presents relevant data charts, but no specific summarized analysis is provided in the text [106]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table from September 2025 to September 2024, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc ingots in each month [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply is shrinking with the southwest region in the dry - season, and the demand from downstream industries like polysilicon and organic silicon is complex. The price is expected to range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, with supply - side factors being closely watched [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply is fluctuating, and the demand is weak due to factors such as reduced domestic tenders and overseas demand decline. The market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the re - registration of warehouse receipts [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Review - Industrial silicon futures' main contract closing price increased by 1.90% from 8,960 yuan/ton on 2025/11/21 to 9,130 yuan/ton on 2025/11/28. Polysilicon futures' main contract closing price rose by 5.74% from 53,360 yuan/ton to 56,425 yuan/ton. Most spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable, with only a few showing minor changes [9]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Silica**: Downstream rigid - demand procurement continued, and the price of silica remained stable [14]. - **Electricity Price**: In the dry - season, the electricity price in the southwest region gradually increased, while in other regions, it showed different trends over time [20]. - **Electrode**: The electrode price remained stable. As of November 28, the average price of carbon electrodes was 7,200 yuan/ton, and that of graphite electrodes was 12,450 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [30]. - **Silicon Coal and Petroleum Coke**: The prices of silicon coal and petroleum coke were generally stable with minor fluctuations [32]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Production and Price - **Profit**: In October, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 917 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 112 yuan/ton, and that of 421 was - 564 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 101 yuan/ton [37]. - **Production**: In the week of November 28, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 5, mainly in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Xinjiang. The total production showed a decreasing trend, and it was expected to be around 400,000 tons in December [38]. - **Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon was generally stable with minor fluctuations [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon Production and Price - **Production**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 24,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 tons. As of November 27, the inventory was 281,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. In December, the production was expected to be around 110,000 tons [69]. - **Price**: The futures price was volatile and strong, and the spot price was firm [70]. 3.5 Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component - **Silicon Wafer**: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the price dropped again. Some enterprises sold silicon wafers at low prices to recover funds, but it couldn't stimulate more demand. It was expected that silicon wafer factories would significantly reduce production in December [75]. - **Battery Cell**: The inventory pressure was not relieved, and the price was continuously under pressure. Battery factories tightened demand and carried out price - limited procurement [80]. - **Component**: Terminal procurement decreased, and the component inventory fluctuated slightly [83]. 3.6 Organic Silicon - **Production**: In November, the DMC production in China was 217,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, and the operating rate was 74.79%, a month - on - month increase of 5.08 percentage points. The supply increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down and overhauled devices [94]. - **Price**: The price of organic silicon increased. As of November 28, the average price of DMC was 13,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.76%; that of 107 glue was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; and that of silicone oil was 14,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Downstream rigid - demand procurement enthusiasm increased, but there was no large - scale inventory replenishment [101]. 3.7 Silicon Aluminum Alloy - **Production**: In the week of November 27, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points [110]. - **Price**: The price of the silicon aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. As of November 28, the average price of ADC12 was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and that of A356 was 21,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.46% [113]. 3.8 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - **Inventory**: As of November 27, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 550,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 179,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons. As of November 28, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 6,596 lots, equivalent to 33,000 tons of spot [125]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provided the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of industrial silicon from January 2024 to October 2025, showing different supply - demand situations in different months [126].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251202: Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cut in December Support Copper Prices" [1] Group 2: Copper Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 89,280, up 1,850 from the previous period; trading volume was 189,675 lots, up 95,167; open interest was 232,702 lots, up 14,445; inventory was 31,495 tons, down 3,749 [2] - The Shanghai copper basis was -51, up 25; SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 89,275, up 1,875; SMM semi - water copper opening discount - half average price was 25, down 30; SMM premium copper opening discount - half average price was 190, up 10 [2] London Copper - On December 1, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 11,232.5, up 57; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 69.1, up 24.41; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 218.26, up 23.26; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9484, up 0.13 [2] COMEX Copper - On December 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.269, up 0.07; total inventory was 429,346, up 11,680 [2] Group 3: Core Views Supply - Demand Logic - Supply side: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, the China copper concentrate import index remains negative, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The overhaul capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods decreased, and that of recycled copper rods remained flat. Higher copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness [2] - Inventory side: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, while LME electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [2] Market Outlook - Weak US employment performance has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish [2] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2]