| | | 甲醇日评20251024: 原油上涨或推动甲醇反弹 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/22 | 变化值 (絶対值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2292.00 | 2261.00 | 31.00 | 1.37% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2329.00 | 2300.00 | 29.00 | 1.26% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2285.00 | 2259.00 | 26.00 | 1.15% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2240.00 | 2245.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2270.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2250.00 | 2245.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 及其差 | 甲醇规 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead Market**: The lead market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, refinery operations are below expectations due to factors such as raw materials, leading to tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has strongly rallied, breaking through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of the lead price falling after a sharp rise [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making the domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) more likely to fall than rise. The zinc price has received some support at the bottom and has rebounded in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to overseas structural risks as the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens with the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,615 yuan/ton, up 2.65%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 155.10% to 74,008 lots, while the open interest decreased by 12.28% to 23,288 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,750 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.98% to 23,734 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, refineries that had previous maintenance have gradually resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is good, increasing demand [1]. - **Industry News**: According to the rules of the electric bicycle trade - in activity in Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province in 2025, individual consumers can get a one - time subsidy of 500 yuan when they trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones priced at 1,500 yuan or more. Starting from October 29, 2025, subsidy qualification vouchers will be publicly distributed through the "Yuehuanxin" platform on the Cloud Flash Pay APP. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 39.73 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 963 lots to 152,853 lots [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,030 yuan/ton, up 0.92%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,345 yuan/ton, up 1.57%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 60.71% to 164,360 lots, while the open interest decreased by 5.99% to 124,740 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 34,700 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.49% to 65,529 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores, and the domestic TC in October may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but with the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. - **Industry News**: On October 22, Boliden announced its Q3 2025 results. The overall output of its lead - zinc concentrate increased quarter - on - quarter. However, the output of the Tara mine climbed slower than expected due to seasonal factors, lower - than - expected mine development progress, and an unplanned power outage. Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate output to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and the lead concentrate output to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. In the smelting segment, the refined zinc output of the Odda smelter decreased quarter - on - quarter, and SMM expects its actual output in 2025 to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 338.74 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,424 lots to 221,589 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Consider lightly shorting at high prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251024：区间整理 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/10/24 指标 | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 8,705.00 | 2.59% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 595.00 | -220.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | 51.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 50,760.00 | 0.89% | | 基差 元/吨 | 740.00 | -450.00 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（四川 ...

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据采源:SMM W | 2025-10-22 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-16 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 121270.00 | 121150.00 | 121120.00 | 30.00 | 2 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 121380.00 | 121380.00 | 121420.00 | 0.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 121570.00 | 121560.00 | 10.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 121660.00 | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 121790.00 | 121710.00 | 121900.0 ...

| 尿素早评20251024: 低估值等待驱动 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 单位 10月23日 | | | 10月22日 | 変化值 (絕对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | UR01 尿素期货价格 山东 山西 | 元/呼 元/吨 元/吨 | 1638.00 1550.00 1480.00 | 1621.00 1540.00 1460.00 | 17.00 10.00 20.00 | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1691.00 | 19.00 | 1.05% 1.12% | | (收盘价) UR09 | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1725.00 | 15.00 | 0.87% | | | | | | | 0.65% | | 期现价格 | | | | | 1.37% | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1550.00 | 1540.00 | 10.00 | 0.65% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | (小顆粒) 河北 | 元/吨 | 1590.00 | 1580.00 | 10.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to supply - side disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the import index of copper concentrates in China has been negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation. The processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products have risen compared to last week. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper and the LME electrolytic copper inventory have decreased compared to last week, while the COMEX copper inventory has increased. With the expectation of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, as well as the expectation of a缓和 in Sino - US trade negotiations, the price of copper is expected to be cautiously bullish. The trading strategy suggests mainly laying out long positions when the price drops, paying attention to support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86070, with a trading volume of 114909 hands, an open interest of 248626 hands, and an inventory of 36048 tons. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 650, the trading volume increased by 2736 hands, the open interest increased by 15265 hands, and the inventory decreased by 505 tons [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10817, with a 0 - 3 - month contract spread of - 11.55 and a 3 - 15 - month contract spread of 111.99. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 158.5, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread decreased by 5.19, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread increased by 6.54 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.0855, and the total inventory was 347498. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 0.13, and the inventory increased by 1574 [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disturbances, resulting in a negative import index of copper concentrates in China. The supply of scrap copper is expected to be tight, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. Inventory Analysis - China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, the LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased compared to last week, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 80000 - 83000 and the resistance level around 86000 - 89000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9500 - 10200 and the resistance level around 11000 - 12000 for LME copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for COMEX copper [2].

| | | 甲醇日评20251024: 原油上涨或推动甲醇反弹 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/22 | 变化值 (絶対值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2292.00 | 2261.00 | 31.00 | 1.37% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2329.00 | 2300.00 | 29.00 | 1.26% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2285.00 | 2259.00 | 26.00 | 1.15% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2240.00 | 2245.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2270.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2250.00 | 2245.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 及其差 | 甲醇规 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand are both strong, upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the macro - situation has improved, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction has weakened, the downstream restocking has slowed down, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on 2025 - 10 - 23 were 76,180 yuan/ton, 74,940 yuan/ton, 79,480 yuan/ton, and 77,120 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On 2025 - 10 - 23, the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 490,920 lots (+114,471), and the open interest was 419,147 lots (+65,916) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was - 260 tons, with a value of 28,759 tons on 2025 - 10 - 23, showing a decrease compared to previous dates [1]. - **Spreads**: There were differences in spreads such as near - month - consecutive - one, consecutive - one - consecutive - two, and consecutive - two - consecutive - three, with values of - 420 yuan/ton, 320 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on 2025 - 10 - 23 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Minerals**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%), and other lithium minerals showed upward trends on 2025 - 10 - 23 compared to previous dates [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds also had price changes on 2025 - 10 - 23. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The average prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also had corresponding price fluctuations [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and the price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rose [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in October [1]. 3.4 Inventory The registered warehouse receipts were 28,759 tons (- 260 tons), with de - stocking in social inventory, smelters, and downstream, while other inventories remained stable [1]. 3.5 Industry News On October 14, Hainan Mining held a shipment ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products at its Mali Buguoni lithium mine project. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be shipped from Buguoni to San Pedro Port in Cote d'Ivoire and then transported to Yangpu Port in Hainan by cargo ship. As of 2024, the estimated mineral resource volume within the mining right scope of the Mali Buguoni lithium mine under the JORC regulations was 31.9 million tons, with an average lithium carbonate grade of 1.00% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On October 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream. However, the expectation of reduced ore supply has weakened, downstream destocking has slowed, and the demand inflection point may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short at the upper edge of the short - term range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 22, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 76,180.00 yuan/ton, 76,780.00 yuan/ton, 77,120.00 yuan/ton, and 77,120.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 380.00 yuan/ton, 1,200.00 yuan/ton, 1,140.00 yuan/ton, and 1,140.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 376,449.00 hands (+178,470.00 hands), and the open interest was 353,231.00 hands (+43,032.00 hands). The inventory was 29,019.00 tons (-873.00 tons) [1]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,350.00 yuan/ton (+250.00 yuan/ton), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 72,100.00 yuan/ton (+250.00 yuan/ton). The basis was - 2,770.00 yuan/ton (-890.00 yuan/ton), and the basis discount widened. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [1]. Cost Side - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased to 857.00 US dollars/ton (+3.00 US dollars/ton), and the price of lithium mica remained flat [1]. Supply Side - Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. The registered warehouse receipts were 29,019 tons (-873 tons), social inventory decreased, and both smelters and downstream reduced their inventories [1]. Demand Side - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries will be tightened in October [1]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons (-2,143 tons), with smelter inventory at 34,283 tons (-464 tons), downstream inventory at 57,735 tons (-2,030 tons), and other inventory at 40,640 tons (+350 tons) [1]. Industry News - Tesla's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production line in Nevada will start production in the first quarter of 2026 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices, but concerns about a weakening US job market, potential future interest rate cuts by the Fed, uncertainty in China-US trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks, support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 948.84 yuan/g, down 38.05 yuan from the previous day and 18.45 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 87,610, with a position of 254,754, down 186 from the previous day and up 5,052 from the previous week [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,381 yuan/10g, down 378 yuan from the previous day and 600 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 2,347,356, with a position of -182,550 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,116.60 US dollars/ounce, down 21.90 US dollars from the previous day and 43.00 US dollars from the previous week; trading volume was 396,022, with a position of 357,370, down 4,708 from the previous day and 16,561 from the previous week [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 2.17 US dollars from the previous day; trading volume was -66,532, with a position of 122,583, down 3,620 from the previous day and 7,608 from the previous week [1] Important Information - The secondary lending market is in turmoil, and PrimaLend has filed for bankruptcy. The Fed is considering reducing bank capital requirements from 19% to a minimum of 3% [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, the second-longest on record. Unemployment may rise temporarily. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest [1] - The US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles and imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3,900 - 4,100 and resistance levels around 4,383 - 4,778; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 930 and resistance levels around 1,000 - 1,100; for London silver, support levels around 42 - 48 and resistance levels around 57 - 68; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 9,800 - 10,800 and resistance levels around 13,000 - 14,800 [1]