| | | 尿素早评20250729: 焦煤回落，尿素补跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 变化值 单位 7月28日 7月25日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1758.00 | 1807.00 | -49.00 | -2.71% | | 房素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1782.00 | 1822.00 | -40.00 | -2.20% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1738.00 | 1803.00 | -65.00 | -3.61% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1780.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1690.00 | -10.00 -30.00 | -0.56% -1.78% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1810.00 | -20.00 | -1.10% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys)" dated July 29, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - The optimistic expectations of China's anti-involution policy are initially alleviated, and the reality of loose supply and demand suppresses domestic aluminum prices. Traditional consumption off - season inventory accumulation expectations also have a negative impact on prices [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Alumina Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, which may increase domestic bauxite production and import in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and construction projects are in progress, which may increase China's alumina production in July. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian Bintan Alumina Phase III project and SPIC's Guinea Aluminum Project Phase II may increase overseas alumina production in July [3] Investment Strategy - Due to the increase in the price of imported Guinea bauxite pushing up production costs, but the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the loose supply - demand expectation, the alumina price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the pressure level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3] Basis and Month - Spread - The alumina basis is negative and at a low level, and the month - spread is positive and basically at a low level. It is recommended that investors go long on the alumina basis at low levels [12] Inventory - The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has increased compared with last week [13][15] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: Multiple domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity transfer and new construction projects may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,650 yuan/ton [4][58] - Import: Multiple overseas factors may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum imports in July [4][61] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [5] Basis and Month - Spread - The Shanghai aluminum basis and month - spread are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see [37] - The LME aluminum (0 - 3) month - spread is positive and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) month - spread is negative. It is recommended that investors wait and see for LME aluminum month - spread arbitrage opportunities [40] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum has increased compared with last week. The inventory in the bonded area has decreased, and the inventory in LME and COMEX has changed differently [42][44] Aluminum Alloys Supply - Side Situation - Scrap aluminum: The production and import of Chinese scrap aluminum in July may increase due to the positive and rising daily spread between refined and scrap aluminum [64][66] - Primary aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese primary aluminum alloy is 20,550 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remains flat compared with last week [69] - Recycled aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19,900 yuan/ton with negative profit, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased compared with last week [77] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy is still in the red. Due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy, the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 19,900 and the pressure level around 20,200 - 20,300 [7] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloys has increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased [87][90] Downstream Processing Enterprises - The weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese aluminum downstream leading processing enterprises has decreased compared with last week due to the intersection of the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [93][95]

| | | | 甲醇日评20250729: 焦煤回落,甲醇补跌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/28 | 2025/7/25 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2492.00 | 2587.00 | -95.00 | -3.67% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2429.00 | 2504.00 | -75.00 | -3.00% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2404.00 | 2519.00 | -115.00 | -4.57% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2487.50 | -87.50 | -3.52% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2340.00 | -15.00 | -0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 厂东 | 元/吨 | 2392.50 | 2460.00 | - ...

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250729: "Anti-Involution" Sentiment Declines, Volatility Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On July 28, the main nickel contract fluctuated downward. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, but the macro - atmosphere dominates with large sentiment changes. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Short - term high - selling and short - positions are recommended, waiting for the "anti - involution" sentiment to subside (Viewpoint Score: -1) [2] - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The current macro - sentiment has a large influence. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see (Viewpoint Score: 0) [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Volume - Shanghai nickel futures: On July 28, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to previous days. The trading volume of the active contract was 297,904 hands (+132,194), and the open interest was 96,124 hands (-2,883) [2] - LME nickel: On July 28, the closing prices of the 3 - month nickel in the electronic and physical trading sessions decreased. The trading volume was 7,318 hands (-3,337) [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat, nickel ore arrivals increased last week, and port inventory decreased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production decreased in June, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits expanded [2] - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel mills' production plans decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 349,991 hands (+149,518), and the open interest was 112,413 hands (-12,340). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 638,500 tons (-17,800) [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production decreased in June [2] - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2] Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemicals has weakened, and the PTA market has risen and then fallen. The downstream procurement intention is not high. The supply of PTA is sufficient, and it will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a relatively abundant supply, and the downstream terminal purchases according to rigid demand, with the market negotiation atmosphere improving [2]. - After the short - term emotional release, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On July 28, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.71 per barrel, up 2.38% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $70.04 per barrel, up 2.34% [1]. - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $578.50 per ton, down 0.34%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $708.00 per ton, down 1.73% [1]. - The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $851.00 per ton, down 2.52%; the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4812 yuan per ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market was $651.00 per ton on July 25, up 1.88%; the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6890 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.44% [1]. - The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6000 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.12%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6010 yuan per ton, down 1.15% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On July 28, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester factory load rate was 86.66%, down 0.35%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester filament sales rate was 29.00%, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber sales rate was 48.00%, down 30.00%; the polyester chip sales rate was 83.00%, down 47.00% [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Market News - The OPEC+ maintains the production - increase plan, and the impact of the production increase is gradually emerging. Although the peak demand season and the improvement of the macro - sentiment provide support, the oil price shows signs of weakness [2]. - PTA will have new device launches in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. The current PX inventory is at a historical low, with relatively strong bottom support [2]. - It is currently the off - season for polyester consumption. After the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - The domestic PX device operates stably, the new production capacity on the demand side has not produced stably, and the game atmosphere in the market has heated up [2]. - The polyester factory actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared with June. The macro - impact on the polyester industry chain has weakened, and it has returned to fundamental - driven, with the supply - demand expectation weakening and prices falling across the board [2].

| | | 尿素早评20250729: 焦煤回落，尿素补跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 变化值 单位 7月28日 7月25日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1758.00 | 1807.00 | -49.00 | -2.71% | | 房素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1782.00 | 1822.00 | -40.00 | -2.20% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1738.00 | 1803.00 | -65.00 | -3.61% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1780.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1690.00 | -10.00 -30.00 | -0.56% -1.78% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1810.00 | -20.00 | -1.10% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250729: 焦煤回落,甲醇补跌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/28 | 2025/7/25 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2492.00 | 2587.00 | -95.00 | -3.67% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2429.00 | 2504.00 | -75.00 | -3.00% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2404.00 | 2519.00 | -115.00 | -4.57% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2487.50 | -87.50 | -3.52% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2340.00 | -15.00 | -0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 厂东 | 元/吨 | 2392.50 | 2460.00 | - ...

镍与不锈钢日评20250729:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | | 资讯 | 1.工信部:巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效,加强光伏等重点行业治理。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 望 | 7月28日,沪续主力合约成荡下行,成交量为297904手(+132194),持仓量为96124手(-2883),伦袋市场成交 较弱,甚差升水扩大。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到迷量均加,港口库存去库:煤铁厂亏损幅皮收窄,6月国内排产 减少,印尼排产减少,镍铁去库;7月国内电解腺糖产城少,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元裤产增加:不锈钢厂排产下降; | | | | 合金与电俄需求稳定。库存来看,上期所增加,LNE增加,社会库存减少,保税区库存持平。综上,纯银基本面偏松,但宏 | | | | 观氛围主导,情绪变化较大,预计媒份高位震荡。操作上,建议短线连高布空,等持"反内发"情绪消退。（观点评分:-1） | | 投资集略 | | 风险提示:美联储降息预期变化,"反内卷"政策落地 | | | | 7月28日,不锈钢主力合约废荡下行,成交量为349991手(+149518),持仓量为112413手(- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For lead, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and expectations of peak - season consumption support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For zinc, the market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory continues to accumulate. With a weak fundamental situation and the fading of the "anti - involution" sentiment, short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly sorted [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Performance**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 0.24% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 55.09%, and the open interest decreased by 3.79%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 0.15%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.09% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise and difficult to fall. A primary lead smelter had a small decline in production due to equipment failure last week. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the supply of recyclers is limited. Some smelters reduced or stopped production due to insufficient raw materials or cost inversion. As the inventory of electrolytic lead factories decreased, the market's fear of high prices increased, and the acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improved, and the start - up of secondary lead production gradually recovered. In terms of demand, as July is coming to an end, the market still expects peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases for inventory checks at the end of the month [1]. - **Industry News**: Guizhou Lukong, a wholly - owned subsidiary of Shandong Zihuan, can produce 200,000 tons of lead ingots, 38,000 tons of recycled plastics, and 50,000 tons of sulfuric acid annually, with an expected annual output value of about 4 billion yuan. On July 27, 2025, its core smelting system was successfully put into operation, marking the official implementation of large - scale production of multi - metal recovery and comprehensive utilization of lead - containing resources [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.53% compared to the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures closed down 1.05% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 26.97%, and the open interest decreased by 3.69%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 0.83%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.22% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,800 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased to 76.25 US dollars/dry ton. With the continuous loosening of raw materials, the zinc concentrate processing fee in August is expected to continue to rise, weakening the cost support. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious upward trend. In terms of demand, the continuous strengthening of zinc prices during the week significantly reduced downstream off - season purchases [1]. - **Industry News**: In May 2025, Bolivia's zinc concentrate production was 39,900 metric tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. From January to May, the total zinc concentrate production in Bolivia was 210,300 metric tons, basically the same as the previous year. As of July 28, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 103,700 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons compared to July 21 and an increase of 5,400 tons compared to July 24 [1].

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