| | | | 交易日期(日) | | 2025-07-30 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-23 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | | 70260.00 | 70460.00 | 69320.00 | -200.00 | ~~~ | | 连一合约 收盘价 | | 70600.00 | 70840.00 | 69380.00 | -240.00 | 3 | | 收盘价 连二合约 | | 70580.00 | 70560.00 | 68800.00 | 20.00 | w | | 连三合约 收盘价 | | 70580.00 | 70560.00 | 68620.00 | 20.00 | 1 | | 收盘价 | | 70600.00 | 70840.00 | 69380.00 | -240.00 | 3 | | 碳酸锂期货 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 | | 792909.00 | 744160.00 | 1334159.00 | 48,749.00 | n | | (元/吨) 持仓量(手 ...

免费声明:宏源规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规定签管机构,已具备知货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公 司时这些信息的准确性和党整理不作任何保证。也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告的采购客观、公正，但文中的观点、精准冲进议 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规资投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：期市有风险 2市需速使, 镍与不锈钢日评20250731:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 吴金恒(F03100418 Z0021125),联系电话:010-82293229 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-23 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-30 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 123220.00 | 121520.00 | 121620.00 | -100.00 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

天然与合成橡胶日评20250731: 天然橡胶震荡偏弱 合成橡胶震荡偏弱 | HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-07-30 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-22 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 14945 天然橡胶 | 15010 | 15060 | -65.00 | | | 成交量(手) 377621 | 369834 | 567016 | | 7,787.00 ----- | | 期货活跃合约 持仓量(手) 193642 | 198795 | 216311 | -5.153.00 ~~~~ | | | 注册仓单量 179910 | 181920 | 186620 | -2,010.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 30 | -135 | -85 | 165.00 | | | 天然橡胶基差 天津-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -175 | -125 | -125 | -50.00 | | | (现货与期货) 山东-上海标准胶SCRWF日度价差 -200 | -200 | -1 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250731：区间整理 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/31 指标 单位 | | 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | 16,750.00 -0.15% | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 16,890.00 -0.06% | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 | | -140.00 -15.00 | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 | | -25.00 - | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 | | -36.37 -4.57 | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 | | -65.70 -3.20 | | | | 价差 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 | | -20.00 - | | | | 元/吨 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 铅 | | -10.00 5.00 | | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 | | -20.00 - | | | | 期货活跃 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250731：或有回调 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/31 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 指标 | | | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,750.00 | 1.56% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 9,285.00 | -0.70% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 465.00 | 215.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | | 45.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 54,705.00 | 7.68% | | 基差 元/吨 | | -9,205.00 | -3,900.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,750.00 | 1.56% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,800.00 | 1.55% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,650.00 | 1.58% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 元/吨 | ...

从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 黑色金属月报-钢材 目录 情绪降温 钢价剧烈波动 第一部分 结论及平衡表 研究所 白净 第二部分 供需基本面 1 情绪降温 钢价剧烈波动 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 五大品种表观需求 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153 五大品种钢材社库+厂库（农历） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：钢联、宏源期货研究所 7月国内钢材现货价格大幅上涨，华东上海螺纹3370元（+300），唐山螺纹3260元（+180）； 热卷方面，上海热卷3460元（+260），天津热卷3390元（+170）。 截至7月24日，五大品种钢材整体产量降1.22万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降6.13吨，社库增 4.97吨。表观需868.13万吨，环比降1.98万吨 ...

黑色金属月报-铁矿 限产预期提升 驱动减弱 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 限产预期提升 驱动减弱 7月铁矿现货价格震荡反弹，上涨幅度在60-85元不等。具体来看，卡粉（+72），PB粉（+67），BRBF （+55），金布巴（+82）， 超特粉（+56），mac（+66）。块矿方面，PB块（+66） ，纽曼块（+73），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+74） 。普氏62%指数方面，截止 7月25日，普氏指数收于102.6美元，周环比回升2.4美元，目前按汇率7.17折算人民币大致在856元左右。仓单方面，截止7月25日，最 优交割品为NM粉，目前最新报价在775元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为800元/吨左右，09铁矿平水现货，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为 brbf粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比累库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量14395.68万吨，环比累库14万吨，较 年初去库1215万吨,比去年同期库存低1295万吨。下期从卸货端考虑，到港回落；从需求端考虑，铁水小幅波动，日均疏港 ...

镍与不锈钢日评20250730:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 吴金恒(F03100418 Z0021125),联系电话:010-82293229 | 近两周走势 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-28 | 2025-07-22 | 较昨日变化 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 121620.00 | 121500.00 | 123530.00 | 120.00 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 121800.00 | 121620.00 | 123720.00 | 180.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 121930.00 | 121780.00 | 123810.00 | 150.00 | | | | | 122110.00 | 121900.00 | 210.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 124050.00 | 121800.00 | 121620.00 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3] 2. Report's Core View - The sentiment of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets fluctuates greatly, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the spot market is large. The market is easily influenced by news. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to buy double - straddle options [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a medium - low level. The trading volume was 744,160 lots (-261,235), and the open interest was 300,620 lots (-77,852). The prices of most contracts decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was -1,420 yuan, a decrease of 380 yuan compared with the previous day [3] - **Spot Market**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price (basis) was 780 yuan, an increase of 1,530 yuan compared with the previous day. The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and different grades of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc., all showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [3] - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in June, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, in June, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June [3] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 tons (unchanged), the social inventory was destocked, the smelters destocked, and the downstream and other inventories changed [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak, with relatively high upstream coal - based profits, a slight decline in coastal MTO profits, and poor downstream profits inland that have room for repair. The methanol valuation is relatively high. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and it's unlikely to significantly reduce supply. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory accumulation is likely, which will suppress the East China spot price. In the short term, policy expectations may fluctuate, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 closed at 2520 yuan/ton on July 29, up 28 yuan or 1.12% from July 28; MA05 closed at 2455 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.07%; MA09 closed at 2434 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.25% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In太仓, it was 2407.50 yuan/ton on July 29, up 7.50 yuan or 0.31%; in Shandong, it was 2305 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.86%; in Guangdong, it was 2397.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.21% [1] 2. Cost and Profit - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500 was 462.50 yuan/ton on July 29, up 7.50 yuan or 1.65%; Datong Q5500 was 532.50 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan or 0.47%; Yulin Q6000 was 542.50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.93% [1] - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 423 yuan/ton on July 29, up 3.70 yuan or 0.88%; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit was 292.40 yuan/ton on July 29, up 12.60 yuan or 4.50%; East China MTO profit was - 668.07 yuan/ton, down 46.50 yuan or - 7.48% [1] 3. Market Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2416 yuan/ton, closing at 2434 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 576181 lots and an open interest of 576028, showing a decrease in volume [1] - Overseas information: In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 - million - ton methanol plant is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. It is estimated that the loading speed in mid - to - late July will be higher than that in the early part of the month [1]