Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a situation where supply has a certain increase and demand improvement is limited, maintaining an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper space of the market. The polysilicon market has the supply increasing slightly in October, and the high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short - term, putting pressure on the upward movement of the spot price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.50% to 8,965 yuan/ton. Polysilicon: N - type dense material remained flat at 51.50 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material fell 0.04% to 52.98 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.20% to 54,500 yuan/ton [1]. Market Inventory and Industry Data - Inventory: In the past week, the inventory of 183N and 210N solar cells narrowed, while 210RN faced inventory reduction pressure. The upstream market inventory was about 6GW, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.73%. Industry data: As of the end of September 2025, the national power generation installed capacity reached 3.72 billion kilowatts, with solar power generation installed capacity of 1.13 billion kilowatts (up 45.7% year - on - year) and wind power installed capacity of 0.58 billion kilowatts (up 21.3% year - on - year). In September 2025, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.66GW, and the newly added wind power installed capacity was 3.25GW [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Supply: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will gradually reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up of northern silicon enterprises increased. After offsetting, the total start - up increased. Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend but were expected to have an output increase in October, and organic silicon enterprises maintained the pre - holiday start - up level without obvious changes [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants might have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October was expected to increase slightly. Demand: The market transaction was light during the National Day, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises were resistant to high - price resources, waiting for the industry meeting in October [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The oversupply pattern may suppress the upper space of the market. Pay attention to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to operate in the range. Polysilicon: Considering the high inventory of downstream raw materials, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short - term, and the upward pressure on the spot price is large. The previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection. The trading strategy is to try to go long lightly on dips before the implementation of supply - side reform policies [1].

| 铅锌日评20251028：沪铅警惕冲高回落；沪锌持续上行动力或不足 | | | --- | --- | | 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | 2025/10/28 | | 元/吨 17,250.00 -0.29% SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,520.00 -0.43% | | | 元/吨 40.00 25.00 升贴水-上海 | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -36.64 0.19 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -80.90 3.60 | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 5.00 -35.00 | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -5.00 -50.00 | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 10.00 - | | | 期货活跃合约成交量 手 81,722.00 2.78% | | | 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 84,395.00 0.65% | | | 成交持仓比 / 0.97 2.11% | | | LME库存 吨 232,375.00 0.00% | | | 23,048.00 0.00% 沪铅仓单库存 吨 | | | LME3 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20251028: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 | 单位 | 10月27日 | 10月24日 | | 変化值 | | | | UR01 | 元/呼 | 1640.00 | 1642.00 | (絶対值) -2.00 | (相对值) -0.12% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1713.00 | 1719.00 | -6.00 | -0.35% | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1748.00 | -3.00 | -0.17% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1570.00 | 40.00 | 2.55% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1590.00 | 1570.00 | 20.00 | 1 ...

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Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251028: Easing of China-US Economic and Trade Negotiations Supports Aluminum Prices [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The easing of China-US economic and trade negotiations supports aluminum prices [1] - Domestic alumina supply and demand is expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the decline in alumina prices [2] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously bullish due to expectations of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, the preliminary agreement reached in China-US economic and trade negotiations, and the decline in inventory [2] - The price of aluminum alloy may be cautiously bullish due to expectations of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, the preliminary agreement reached in China-US economic and trade negotiations, and the tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum [2] Group 4: Price and Market Data Alumina - The national average price of alumina decreased by 7.10 yuan/ton to 2881.03 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of alumina in various regions such as Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan decreased [2] - The Australian alumina FOB price remained unchanged at 319 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - The SMM A00 aluminum semi-average price increased by 50.00 yuan/ton to 21160 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of A00 aluminum in various regions such as Shenyang, Zhongyuan, and Tianjin showed different changes [2] - The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures increased by 135.00 yuan/ton to 21360 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy - The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) semi-average price increased by 50.00 yuan/ton to 22250 yuan/ton [2] - The futures closing price of cast aluminum alloy increased by 10.00 yuan/ton to 20715 yuan/ton [2] London Aluminum - The LME 3-month aluminum futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10947 (data for some days was N/A) [2] - The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread and 3 - 15 month contract spread showed different values (some data was N/A) [2] Price Ratios - The Shanghai-London aluminum price ratio was 7.4777, an increase of 0.05 [2] Group 5: Market Volume and Position Data Alumina - The trading volume was 251558 lots, and the open interest was 372484 lots [2] - The inventory was 223372 tons [2] Aluminum - The trading volume was 2686.00 lots, and the open interest was 311269 lots [2] - The inventory decreased by 402.00 tons to 66299 tons [2] Aluminum Alloy - The trading volume of cast aluminum alloy futures (active contract) was 3221 lots, and the open interest was 10124 lots [2] Group 6: Basis and Spread Data Alumina - The basis was 52.03 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months such as near-month - consecutive first, consecutive first - consecutive second showed different values [2] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum basis (spot - futures) was -85.00 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months such as Shanghai aluminum near - month - Shanghai aluminum consecutive first showed different values [2] Aluminum Alloy - The daily basis of cast aluminum alloy was -10.00 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months of cast aluminum alloy showed different values [2] Group 7: Trading Strategies Alumina - Wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, and pay attention to the support level around 2600 - 2800 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 (view score: 0) [2] Aluminum - Lay out long positions when the price falls back, and pay attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21500 - 22000; for London aluminum, pay attention to the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3000 (view score: 1) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Lay out long positions when the price falls back, or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level around 20000 - 20300 and the resistance level around 20800 - 21000 (view score: 1) [2]

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20251028:中美经贸谈判缓和或使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-10-24 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-27 | 收盘价 | 938. 10 | 934. 14 | 994. 06 | -3. 96 | -59. 92 | | | | | 成父童 | 386272. 00 | 370912.00 | 496445.00 | -110, 173.00 | 15, 360. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | -4. 998.00 | 180815.00 | 185813.00 | 205110.00 | -24, 295.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 86565.00 | 87015.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream. The improvement in the macro - environment and the cancellation of warehouse receipts drive the price up. However, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakening, downstream inventory replenishment is slowing down, and potential demand bottlenecks may emerge. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. [1] 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases ranging from 380 to 460 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 420 yuan/ton to 79,520 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on October 24 was 613,476 lots (+122,556), and the open interest was 431,174 lots (+12,027). [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate was 28,699 tons (-60). The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons, with smelters and downstream reducing inventory and other sectors increasing inventory. [1] - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 881 dollars/ton (+11), and the prices of various types of lithium mica also increased. [1] - **Product Prices**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and other lithium - related products generally increased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 600 yuan/ton to 75,400 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Industry News - In September, the year - on - year increase in domestic smartphone shipments was 10%, but the month - on - month decrease was 5%. The limited increase in the proportion of high - end models led to a slowdown in the growth of cobalt - acid lithium demand. In September, the operating rate of leading enterprises in the cobalt tetroxide market was adjusted, with increased supply but insufficient demand, affecting the upstream cobalt raw material market. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium ore raw materials rose. [1] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries also increased last week. In October, the production of energy - storage batteries increased. However, in September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average. [1] 3.4 Investment Strategy It is recommended to short at high levels in the short - term. [1]

黑色金属周报-铁矿 高基差限制下跌动能 震荡运行 2025年10月27日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999; TEL：010-82292661 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 高基差限制下跌动能 震荡运行 上周铁矿主流现货价格盘整运行。具体来看，卡粉（-25），PB粉（+1），BRBF （+2），金布巴（-1），超特粉（+2），mac （+1）。块矿方面，PB块（-3） ，纽曼块（-3），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+3）。普氏62%指数方面，截至10月24日，普氏指数收于 105.15美元，环比下降0.15美元，目前按汇率7.12折算人民币大致在871元左右。仓单方面，截止10月24日，最优交割品为NM粉，目前 最新报价在775元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为800元/吨左右，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为pb粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比累库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量15109.49万吨，环比累库148万吨，较 年初去库501万吨,比去年同期库存低937万吨。下期从卸货端考虑，到港下降；从需求端考虑，铁水高位波动 ...

第一部分 结论 第二部分 供需基本面 黑色金属周报-钢材 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 2025年10月27日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL:010-82292661 目录 1 宏观预期改善 钢价低位修复 本周国内钢材现货价格小幅波动，截至周六，华东上海螺纹3170元（-）；上海热卷3290元， （+20）。 五大品种钢材整体产量增8.37万吨，五大品种库存厂库环比降1.27吨，社库降26.14吨。表观 需892.73万吨，环比增17.32万吨。截至10月24日，长流程现货端，华东螺纹长流程现金含税成本 3143元，点对点利润27元左右，热卷长流程现金含税利润47元左右。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本 在3294元左右，谷电成本在3151.5左右，华东螺纹平电利润-174元左右，谷电利润-31元。 废钢端，截止10月23日，张家港废钢价格2140元/吨，环比持平。数据显示，89家独立电弧炉 企业产能利用率33.2%，环比下降1.2个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗51.4万吨，环比下降0.94万吨； 其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗24.9万吨/天，环比下降0. ...

有色金属周报-铜 1 中美经贸谈判缓和和铜矿供给预期偏紧支撑铜价 2025年10月27日 研究所 王文虎 从业资格证号：F03087656 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472 联系方式：021-51801878 电解铜 | 供给端：国内外多个铜矿生产存在扰动，使中国铜精矿进口指数持续为负，引导国内铜精矿供需预期偏 | | --- | | 紧；废铜供给预期增加使国内粗铜或阳极板加工费初现升高，铜冶炼厂10月检修产能环比增加； | | 需求端：精铜制杆、铜板带产能开工率较上周下降，再生铜制杆、铜电线电缆、铜漆包线、铜管和黄铜 | | 棒产能开工率较上周升高，高位铜价使下游刚需采购为主。 | | 库存端：进口窗口关闭或限制国内电解铜进口量，使中国保税区电解铜库存量较上周减少；中国电解铜 | | 社会库存量较上周增加；伦金所电解铜库存量较上周减少；COMEX铜库存量较上周增加。 | | 投资策略：美联储未来降息和停止缩表预期，中美经贸谈判达成初步方案，海外多个铜矿存生产扰动， | | 或使沪铜价格谨慎偏强，建议投资者逢价格回落布局多单为主，关注83000-86000附近支撑位及90000- | | 100000附 ...