Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure on the spot price to continue rising, which suppresses the upside space of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygen - passing 553 (East China) remained at 9,350 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; the futures main contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The average prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon showed various trends, with some remaining unchanged and some having slight declines [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type dense material remained at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re - feeding material dropped 0.10% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material remained at 50.50 yuan/kg; N - type granular silicon dropped 0.99% to 50 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, down 0.90% [1]. - Other products: Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices mostly remained unchanged, while some organic silicon product prices, such as DMC, increased by 2.25% to 13,650 yuan/ton [1]. Information - On December 4, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [1]. - The U.S. Department of Energy renamed the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to the Rocky Mountain National Laboratory, which reflects a policy shift and raises concerns about the weakening of renewable energy research [1]. Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Southwest silicon enterprises' production stoppages have basically been implemented, with low - level production. Northern production is relatively stable. December's industrial silicon output is expected to fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons. Demand from polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises may weaken, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is limited [1]. - Strategy: The silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pressure on silicon prices. Adopt an interval - trading strategy and pay attention to new warehouse - receipt registration and actual enterprise start - up [1]. Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - Supply and demand: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cut - backs, with some new capacity additions. October's output is expected to increase slightly, and November's output is expected to drop to around 120,000 tons. Market transactions are light, and downstream resistance to high - price resources is strong [1]. - Strategy: The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, suppressing the upside of the futures market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to platform implementation and macro - sentiment [1].

| 碳酸锂日评20251205:偏弱震荡 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-04 | | | 2025-12-03 | 2025-11-27 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 90680.00 | | | 92200.00 | 93960.00 | -1,520.00 | 5 | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 92260.00 | | | 92060.00 | 94000.00 | 200.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 92480.00 | | | 92200.00 | 94120.00 | 280.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 92480.00 | | | 92200.00 | 94340.00 | 280.00 | | | 收盘价 | 93700.00 | | | 93660.00 | 95820.00 | 40.00 | 1 | | 砖酸包期货 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 (元/吨) 持仓堂(手) | 663458.00 560 ...

| 贵金属日评20251205:全球债务膨胀预期支撑贵金属价格 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-03 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-28 | 收盘价 | 956. 70 | -3.28 | 953. 42 | 953. 92 | -0. 50 | | | | | | | | | | 成交重 | 300096.00 | 310489.00 | 189713.00 | 10, 393. 00 | 120, 776. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 202129.00 | 197638.00 | 197799.00 | -161.00 | -4. 491.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 90870.00 | 90873.00 | 90873.00 | -3.00 | -3.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | 1.03 | 948. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the callback risk, and it is still recommended to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea reflects the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, but from a driving perspective, the price is supported at low levels, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. Long - term investors should focus on long - entry opportunities on dips [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On December 4, it was 1,688 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.24% from December 3 [1] - UR05: On December 4, it was 1,745 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17% from December 3 [1] - UR09: On December 4, it was 1,763 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.28% from December 3 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: On December 4, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.79% from December 3 [1] - Shanxi: On December 4, it was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.95% from December 3 [1] - Henan: On December 4, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.18% from December 3 [1] - Hebei: On December 4, it was 1,730 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.17% from December 3 [1] - Northeast: On December 4, it was 1,740 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.19% from December 3 [1] Basis and Spread - Direct spread (Shandong spot - UR): On December 4, it was - 35 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan from December 3 [1] - Spread (01 - 05): On December 4, it was - 57 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from December 3 [1] Upstream Cost - Henan anthracite price: On December 4, it was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Shanxi anthracite price: On December 4, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: On December 4, it was 3,100 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.31% from December 3 [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: On December 4, it was 2,640 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.76% from December 3 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 5,217 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,695 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,710 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,682 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,688 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,694 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 209,270 lots [1] Long - Short Logic - Urea's rebound from the bottom has been small, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. A new round of export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate reserve - holding enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term investors should focus on long - entry opportunities on dips [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - **Lead**: SMM research shows that the supply of raw materials for recycled lead smelters has tightened recently, and some smelters may reduce production due to raw material shortages. With improved macro - sentiment, the lead price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The trading strategy is to try long positions at low prices [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is tightening, and the treatment charge is likely to decline. Although the supply of zinc ingots is currently stable, the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be mainly range - bound, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 17,100 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price is 17,245 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 1,998.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 37,288 lots, up 38.02%, and the open interest is 46,582 lots, down 0.10%. The LME inventory is 248,050 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 16,553 tons, down 0.46% [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots is 22,920 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the futures main contract closing price is 22,865 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 3,062 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 164,347 lots, up 54.44%, and the open interest is 105,684 lots, up 1.05%. The LME inventory is 54,325 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 62,028 tons, down 2.47% [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the treatment charge is likely to rise. The start - up rate of primary lead and recycled lead has declined, and the inventory of primary lead has increased while that of recycled lead has decreased. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, while the automobile battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. - **Zinc**: Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc concentrates, and the domestic supply of concentrates is tight, with the treatment charge expected to decline. The refinery's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side is still weak [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Lead**: Try to go long at low prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Wait and see [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The expected future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve support the prices of precious metals. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed, but the probability remains above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, central banks' continuous gold purchases, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the long - term. The supply - demand expectations for platinum and rhodium in 2025 - 26 are tight and may shift from tight to loose respectively, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - **Gold**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of the futures active contract was 956.70, with a decrease of 1.72 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 273,359, a decrease of 13,624 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) remained at 90,873. For spot Shanghai gold T+D, the closing price was - 5.15, the trading volume was 26,942, and the holding weight was 220,396. The spread between the near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 3.32, and the basis (spot - to - futures price difference) was - 3.73. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 4,133.80, the trading volume was 169,613, and the inventory (in troy ounces) was 36,573,657.72. The price of London gold spot was 4,210.30 [1] - **Silver**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of the futures active contract of Shanghai silver was 13,536, the trading volume was 984,592, and the holding weight was - 53,754. The spread between the near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 7.00, and the basis was - 21.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures was 58.93, the trading volume was 107,261, and the inventory (in troy ounces) was 455,933,737.28. The price of London silver spot was 58.37 [1] Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Federal Reserve Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residence limit for regional Fed presidents, stating that tariffs could be reconfigured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, while the US ISM services PMI expansion rate was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: The multi - side logic includes mixed economic and employment data disturbing the Fed's December interest rate cut probability, but the probability remaining above 80% due to some Fed officials' support. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, central banks' continuous gold purchases, high London silver lease rates, and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices in the long - term. The trading strategy is to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on 890 - 920 and 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on 49 - 54 and 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on 11,500 - 12,500 and 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: The supply - side factors include high deep - mine mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affecting production, and slow growth in recycled platinum production. The demand - side factors include increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid cars due to higher emission standards and positive demand expectations from industries like hydrogen production, fiberglass, and jewelry investment. The 2025 - 26 global platinum supply - demand is expected to be tight. However, the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December, the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and high platinum prices suppressing downstream demand may lead to price adjustments. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, or consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum, focus on 335 - 385 and 465 - 516 [1] - **Rhodium**: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades affect production, but an increase in recycled rhodium supply is expected due to the car scrapping cycle in China and globally. On the demand side, demand from cars is expected to decline due to higher emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles, and the demand elasticity in the industrial and medical fields is low. The 2025 - 26 global rhodium supply - demand is expected to shift from tight to loose. The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December, the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and the supply - demand shift may lead to price adjustments. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices. For London rhodium, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic rhodium, focus on 305 - 357 and 415 - 465 [1]

| 碳酸锂日评20251204:偏弱震荡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-02 | 较昨日变化 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-03 | 2025-11-26 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 94960.00 | 94260.00 | -2,760.00 | 1 | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | -2.800.00 | 92060.00 | 94860.00 | 94500.00 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 95140.00 | -2,940.00 | 94660.00 | 连二合约 | | | | -2.940.00 | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 95140.00 | 94700.00 | -2,900.00 | 收盘价 | 93660.00 | 96560.00 | 96340.00 | | | | | 3 | 砖 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the upward space of methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The main reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and if the methanol price rises further, the downstream profit will deteriorate, which may lead to downstream shutdown and negative feedback on demand. Also, the downstream replenishment willingness is not strong, as the current MTO enterprise's original methanol inventory is 71.5 tons, which is on the high side in the past five years, and the port inventory is also relatively high, so the downstream enterprises have insufficient motivation to replenish inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price and Profit Information - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, MA01 closed at 2128 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2214 yuan/ton, down 0.81%; MA09 closed at 2215 yuan/ton, down 0.58% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, prices in most regions decreased slightly, except for Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, which increased by 0.13% and 0.38% respectively [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable or decreased slightly on December 3, 2025 [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 2.61% to 248.10 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit increased by 8.66% to - 1160 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profits of some downstream products such as MTO and MTBE decreased, while those of acetic acid increased [1]. b. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock on December 3, 2025, opening at 2130 yuan/ton, closing at 2128 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 996,300 lots and a position of 948,400 lots, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1]. c. Trading Strategy The report suggests holding the sold put options of the 01 contract until maturity and does not recommend chasing up the 01 contract [1].

【交易策略】 预计PX震荡运行，PTA震荡运行，PR震荡运行。 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/4 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/桶 | 58.95 | 58.64 | 0.53% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/桶 | 62.67 | 62.45 | 0.35% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/吨 | 562.00 | 567.25 | -0.93% | | 游 | | | | 706.00 | 709.50 | | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/12/3 | | 美元/吨 | | | -0.49% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/吨 | 848.00 | 849.67 | -0. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels. Strategically, pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1692.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 5.00 yuan (0.30%) from December 2 [1] - UR05: 1748.00 yuan/ton on December 3, down 4.00 yuan (-0.23%) from December 2 [1] - UR09: 1768.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - Shandong: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Shanxi: 1540.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Henan: 1690.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 10.00 yuan (0.60%) from December 2 [1] - Hebei: 1710.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Northeast: 1740.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Jiangsu: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR basis: -68.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 4.00 yuan from December 2 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: -56.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 9.00 yuan from December 2 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices: 1030.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 930.00 yuan/ton in Shanxi on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices: 3060.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 2620.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Melamine prices: 5217.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 5250.00 yuan/ton in Jiangsu on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1684 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1697 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1679 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1692 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1690 yuan/ton [1] Multi - Empty Logic - From a valuation perspective, the rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]