研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-02 | 2025-11-26 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-12-03 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117700.00 | 117030.00 | 117600.00 | -100.00 | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 117870.00 | 118050.00 | -180.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 117260.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 118070.00 | 118280.00 | 117430.00 | -210.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 118330.00 | 118470.00 | 117610.00 | -140.00 | 117870.00 | 118050.0 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251204:偏弱震荡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-02 | 较昨日变化 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-03 | 2025-11-26 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 94960.00 | 94260.00 | -2,760.00 | 1 | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | -2.800.00 | 92060.00 | 94860.00 | 94500.00 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 95140.00 | -2,940.00 | 94660.00 | 连二合约 | | | | -2.940.00 | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 92200.00 | 95140.00 | 94700.00 | -2,900.00 | 收盘价 | 93660.00 | 96560.00 | 96340.00 | | | | | 3 | 砖 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20251204:继续上行空间或有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/12/3 | 2025/12/2 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2128.00 | 2132.00 | -4.00 | -0.19% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2214.00 | 2232.00 | -18.00 | -0.81% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2215.00 | 2228.00 | -13.00 | -0.58% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2112.50 | 2122.50 | -10.00 | -0.47% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2225.00 | 2235.00 | -10.00 | -0.45% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2095.00 | 2105.00 | -10. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future interest rate cut expectations support precious metal prices. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. The supply - demand expectations of platinum and palladium are different, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors such as interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price was 956.70 yuan/g, the trading volume was 273,359.00, and the inventory was 90,873.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 9.54 yuan/g, and the trading volume decreased by 26,737.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 13,423.00 yuan/ten - gram, the trading volume was 2,664,403.00, and the inventory was 626,633.00 (ten - gram). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 159.00 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume increased by 2,464,589.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 4,133.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 169,613.00, and the inventory was 36,573,657.72 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price increased by 101.00 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 42,456.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 58.93 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 107,261.00, and the inventory was 455,933,737.28 (troy ounces). Compared with the previous week, the closing price decreased by 0.22 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume decreased by 4,787.00 [1] 3.2 Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Fed Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residency limit for regional Fed presidents, saying that tariffs could be re - structured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM services PMI expansion speed was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - **Multi - empty Logic**: US economic and employment data in November were mixed, disturbing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. But the probability of a December rate cut was still over 80%. Fiscal stimulus policies in multiple countries led to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficits, and central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 890 - 920 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 970 - 1,000 yuan/g. Similar support and resistance levels are provided for silver [1] 3.4 Platinum - **Multi - empty Logic**: Supply is affected by high mining costs, unstable power supply, etc., and demand is expected to increase due to stricter emission standards. The supply - demand of platinum is expected to be tight from 2025 - 2026. However, the expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. Consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce. For domestic platinum, the support level is around 335 - 385 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/g [1] 3.5 Palladium - **Multi - empty Logic**: Supply is affected by mining difficulties but may increase due to vehicle scrapping. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of palladium is expected to shift from tight to loose from 2025 - 2026. Interest rate expectations and supply - demand changes may lead to price adjustments [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits on rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce. For domestic palladium, the support level is around 305 - 357 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/g [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure above the silicon price. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1] - The willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory is limited, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which suppresses the upward space of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the subsequent launch of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon rose 0.51% to 9,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.61% to 8,920 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the suspension of production of silicon enterprises in the southwest production period has basically been implemented, and the start - up is at a low level within the year. The start - up in the north is relatively stable. It is expected that the output of industrial silicon in December will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production - reduction mechanism, and the demand for industrial silicon may weaken. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is limited [1] Investment Strategy - The overall situation is a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pressure above the silicon price. The trading strategy is range operation [1] Polysilicon Price Changes - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained flat. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.98% to 57,430 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, but some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November will decrease to about 120,000 tons. On the demand side, the prices in the industrial chain are under pressure to decline. Although the polysilicon price is still firm, the market transactions are relatively light, with few new transactions, and the downstream has strong resistance to high - price resources [1] Investment Strategy - The overall situation is that the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which suppresses the upward space of the futures price. The trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1] Other Information - In October 2025, the import of complete vehicles was 43,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The import amount was $2 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. From January to October 2025, the import of complete vehicles was 404,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 30%, and the import amount was $20.25 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 38.3% [1] - Germany's Jülich Research Center announced that its developed silver - free heterojunction (HJT) solar cell achieved a world - record efficiency of 23.08% using a full - copper (Cu) metallization process. Compared with the benchmark device using full - silver (Ag) metallization, the efficiency only decreased by 0.4% [1]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | | | | | | | 铅锌日评20251204：区间整理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 2025/12/4 单位 | 今值 | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | 0.15% | | | | 元/吨 17,075.00 | | | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | | | 0.00% | | | | 17,210.00 元/吨 | | | | 沪铅基差 | | | | 25.00 | | | | 元/吨 -135.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 | | | | - | | | | 元/吨 25.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | | | | -0.82 | | | | -42.45 美元/吨 | | | 价差 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | | | | 2.50 | | | | 美元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is regionally tightened, and the price of lead may stop falling and stabilize. The raw materials of lead, including lead concentrate and waste batteries, are facing different situations. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the cost - support of waste batteries has loosened. On the supply side, the start - up rates of both primary and secondary lead have declined. On the demand side, the terminal market is differentiated, and the overall start - up rate of batteries has increased. The import profit window has opened, and the social inventory of lead ingots has decreased [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,975 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 0.44% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic disk) decreased by 0.40% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: The TC quotation of lead concentrate is stable with a weakening trend. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The profit of smelters is good, with a profit of 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. 2. Primary Lead - **Processing Fee and Profit**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit (excluding by - product benefits such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of primary lead decreased to 65.32% on a month - on - month basis [36]. - **Production and Maintenance Arrangements**: The total weekly production of primary lead decreased from 49,550 tons in the week of November 21 to 46,410 tons this week. Some enterprises had maintenance, resulting in production cuts [41]. 3. Secondary Lead - **Raw Material Price and Cost Support**: As of November 28, the average price of waste batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The cost support has loosened [48]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 220 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 12 yuan/ton as of November 28. The profit improved in the second half of the week as the lead price rebounded [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The start - up rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 2 percentage points to 48.5% [57][60]. 4. Lead Batteries - The start - up rate of lead batteries increased by 2.83 percentage points to 73.39%. The terminal market is differentiated. The electric bicycle battery market is weakening, while the automobile battery market is in the replacement peak season [67]. 5. Import and Export - As of November 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 3,200 yuan/ton, and the import was profitable at 143.13 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window has opened [78]. 6. Lead Ingot Inventory - As of November 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places was 3.5 tons, showing a decline. The warehouse inventory of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 9,100 tons, showing a month - on - month increase. As of November 28, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.78 tons, showing a decrease, and the LME inventory was 26.09 tons, also showing a decrease [88][93]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251203: Weak Recovery after Decline [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - On December 2nd, the main nickel contract fluctuated within a range. With a weak fundamental situation and inventory pressure, but due to the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the low valuation, the nickel price is expected to have a weak recovery after getting support around 115,000 [1] - On December 2nd, the main stainless - steel contract also fluctuated within a range. Given the loose fundamentals and the weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Content Nickel Market Price and Trading Volume - On December 2nd, the closing price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel near - month contract was 117,700 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 88,522 lots, a decrease of 57,307 lots, and the open interest was 121,924 lots, a decrease of 967 lots [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 14,900 US dollars/ton, with the closing price of the electronic trading session at 14,740 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 135 US dollars, and the closing price of the on - site trading session at 14,800 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 128 US dollars. The trading volume was 8,350 lots, a decrease of 2,233 lots [2] Price Spreads - The basis (spot - to - futures) of SMM I electrolytic nickel average price and the active nickel futures contract closing price was 1,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2] - The spreads between different - term contracts of Shanghai nickel futures showed different changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 390 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat. The amount of nickel ore arriving at the port last week increased, and the port inventory decreased. Nickel iron plants' losses deepened, with domestic and Indonesian production schedules decreasing in December. The electrolytic nickel production schedule in China increased in December, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports decreased [1] - On the demand side, the production schedule of ternary materials decreased, stainless - steel plants' production schedules decreased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating remained stable [1] Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [1] Stainless - Steel Market Price and Trading Volume - On December 2nd, the closing price of the stainless - steel near - month contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 95,108 lots, a decrease of 68,491 lots, and the open interest was 102,135 lots, a decrease of 6,334 lots [2] Price Spreads - The basis (spot - to - futures) of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and the active stainless - steel futures contract decreased by 20 yuan to 735 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the stainless - steel production schedule decreased in December, especially for the 300 - series [1] - On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak [1] Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons [1] Cost - The price of high - grade nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1] Indonesian Nickel - Related Commodities - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) showed that the prices of various nickel - related commodities in Indonesia had different trends. The prices of some products were stable, while others had small increases. For example, the average price of 1.2% - grade nickel ore (CIF) was 22 US dollars/ton, remaining the same as the previous period, and the average price of 1.6% - grade nickel ore (CIF) was 52.5 US dollars/ton, also stable. The price of downstream products such as NPI (high - grade, FOB) increased slightly by 0.03 US dollars to 109.61 US dollars/ton, and the price of high - grade nickel sulfate (FOB) increased significantly by 69 US dollars to 13,259 US dollars/ton [1] Inventory of Nickel and Stainless - Steel in China - The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 9790,000 wet tons in the week of November 28th, a decrease of 30,000 wet tons compared with the previous week [2] - The total inventory of stainless - steel in China was 935,300 tons in the week of November 28th, an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of 200 - series stainless - steel was 180,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons; the inventory of 300 - series was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons; and the inventory of 400 - series was 129,400 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons [2] Trading Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [1] - For stainless - steel, the trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The upward space of the methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The main reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and if the methanol price rises further, it may lead to downstream parking and negative demand feedback; downstream replenishment willingness is weak due to profit levels and high inventory, and inland profit is poor, which restricts the performance of inland methanol prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (-0.19%) to 2132 yuan/ton; MA05 remained unchanged at 2232 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.40%) to 2228 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol spot prices: Increases in various regions, such as 12.5 yuan/ton (0.59%) in Taicang, 10 yuan/ton (0.45%) in Shandong, 15 yuan/ton (0.72%) in Guangdong, etc. [1] - Coal spot prices: Decreases in various regions, such as 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.42%) for Bu Shui Duo Si Q5500, 10 yuan/ton (-1.50%) for Datong Q5500, etc. [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: Remained unchanged in Hohhot and Chongqing [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 72.6 yuan/ton (42.91%) to 241.8 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 1270 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Decreases in most downstream products, such as 13.8 yuan/ton (-6.87%) for Northwest MTO, 22 yuan/ton (-2.78%) for East China MTO, etc. [1] Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a strong sideways trend, opening at 2134 yuan/ton, closing at 2132 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1.1983 million lots and open interest of 0.9786 million lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the remaining plants are operating at low loads. The daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the short put option of the 01 contract until maturity [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the price oscillated and declined. Considering the tight raw material supply and reduced supply, the downside space for lead prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. - For zinc, the mine supply is continuously tightening, and the TC is likely to fall. It may have an impact on the supply side, providing some support for zinc prices. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations, and also wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On December 3, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,050 yuan/ton, up 0.44%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,210 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The trading volume of the active futures contract was 52,077 lots, up 34.28%; the open interest was 47,601 lots, up 0.88%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 256,950 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9.43% to 18,131 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. However, it has not yet had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Last week, more smelters were under maintenance, and the production of primary lead decreased. In the secondary lead sector, a smelter in Yunnan reduced production due to maintenance. The lead price fell below 17,000 yuan, and smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices. The inventory of primary lead increased, while that of secondary lead decreased. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is gradually weakening, while the automotive battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On December 3, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,670 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,745 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The trading volume of the active futures contract was 122,766 lots, down 4.31%; the open interest was 106,325 lots, up 0.54%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 52,375 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.00% to 63,804 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Economically, smelters are actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, and the domestic ore supply is tight. The processing fees in many regions have been continuously reduced. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons per month, and the production has not been affected. The demand is still weak, and the construction in the north has stopped due to cold weather, and some downstream operations have been affected by environmental protection [1]. Industry News - Saudi Arabia has launched a tender for three mineral exploration licenses, covering an area of 13,000 square kilometers. The country is accelerating the exploitation of deposits estimated at 9.4 trillion riyals (2.50 trillion US dollars), including areas with potential for gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead mining [1]. - A zinc mine in South China resumed production after maintenance in November, with an expected increase of about 2,000 metal tons of zinc concentrate. A zinc mine in North China will undergo a 10 - day maintenance in December, with an expected reduction of about 500 metal tons of zinc concentrate. A zinc mine in Central China has gradually resumed production after maintenance, with an expected increase of about 1,000 metal tons of zinc concentrate [1].