【車安资讯】 1）宏观：美国参议院通过稳定币相关法案目将准许养老基金等投资黄金、数字货币等资产;进口关税推开商品价格致美国6月消费端通服CPE率容有 变量名称 | 变量名称 | | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-28 | 2025-07-21 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 沪铜期货活跃合约 | | 78840 | 79000 | 79700 | -160.00 | | | 成交量(手) | | 65404 | 75630 | 80012 | -10. 226.00 | | | 持仓重(手) | | 173744 | 176092 | 137617 | -2, 348. 00 | | | 库存(吨) | | 18083 | 17832 | 28177 | 251.00 | | | SMW 1#电解铜十12价 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | | 79025 | 79075 | 79555 | -50.00 110 00 / V | | | 沪铜县差 | | 185 | 75 | -145 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The market sentiment for natural rubber has weakened, and the tapping work is affected by weather fluctuations, which may cause the price of natural rubber to fluctuate. For synthetic rubber, the raw material cost has decreased and the inventory has accumulated, which may lead to a weakening price trend with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of relevant rubber types [1] Summary by Relevant Content Market Data Natural Rubber - On July 29, 2025, the closing price was 15010, down 55 from the previous day; the trading volume was 369834 hands, a decrease of 203402 hands; the open interest of the active futures contract was 198795 hands, a decrease of 6497 hands; the registered warrant volume was 181920, a decrease of 100; the basis was -135, a decrease of 145; the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -125, unchanged; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread (spot and futures) was -200, a decrease of 25; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 125, an increase of 200; the near - term to continuous - first spread was -70, a decrease of 20; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was 25, an increase of 10; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 35, unchanged [1] Synthetic Rubber - On July 29, 2025, the closing price was 11835, down 120 from the previous day; the trading volume was 104614 hands, a decrease of 46246 hands; the open interest of the active futures contract was 41136 hands, a decrease of 3967 hands; the registered warrant volume was 10190, a decrease of 50; the basis was -68.33, an increase of 3.34; the North China - East China butadiene rubber spread (spot and futures) was 0; the South China - East China butadiene rubber spread was -50, an increase of 50; the near - term to continuous - first spread was -30, an increase of 5; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was 30, an increase of 5; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 25, unchanged [1] Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places, with less precipitation in Hainan. As of July 24, 2026, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 66.43%, up 3.21% from the previous week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from the previous week. As of July 29, the daily after - tax profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization method was 30.97 yuan/ton, up 199.11 yuan/ton from the previous day, turning from negative to positive; the daily after - tax profit of China's SBS solution polymerization process was 486.73 yuan/ton, up 159.3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the after - tax profit of butadiene rubber solution condensation process was -610.62 yuan/ton, up 205.49 yuan/ton from the previous day. The operation of synthetic rubber - related product devices is stable [1] Inventory Natural Rubber - As of July 25, 2025, the total weekly warrant inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 210.81 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.11 thousand tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 11.96 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons from the previous week; the bonded area inventory was 8.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [1] Synthetic Rubber - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12796 tons, an increase of 156 tons from the previous week; the weekly inventory of butadiene was 15.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.3 thousand tons from the previous week [1] Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and the major producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of July 29, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 5.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.2 Thai baht/kg from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 16660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction in crude oil is not obvious, the oil price volatility has returned to a shock, and the price of upstream raw material butadiene has decreased. As of July 29, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 9375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Demand Side - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 75.5%, a decrease of 0.12% from the previous week. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217.7 thousand vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184.3 thousand vehicles from the previous month; the sales volume of trucks in June was 316 thousand vehicles, an increase of 24.5 thousand vehicles from the previous month, and the tire matching demand has increased [1]

| 贵金属日评20250730: 美国财政部或待利率下降后再增发长债,待美国GDP和就业等数据 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-07-28 | 收盘价 | 774. 78 | 771. 44 | 792. 90 | -3. 34 | -21.46 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 219932.00 | 286795. 00 | -36, 087. 00 | 256019.00 | -66, 863. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 222387.00 | 212407.00 | 209675.00 | 2, 732. 00 | -9, 980. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 31263.00 | 30258.00 | 28857.00 | 2, 406. 00 | 1,00 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250730: 反内卷政策预期将会反复 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 单位 7月29日 7月28日 | | | | 变化值 | 英化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1770.00 1760.00 1650.00 | 1758.00 1780.00 1660.00 | 12.00 -20.00 -10.00 | 0.68% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1797.00 | 1782.00 | 15.00 | 0.84% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1744.00 | 1738.00 | 6.00 | 0.35% | | | | | | | | | -1.12% -0.60% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1770.00 | 1790.00 | -20.00 | -1.12% | | (小顆粒) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move within a range [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak fundamental situation. Considering the repeated "anti - involution" sentiment in the macro - aspect, short - term zinc prices are expected to move within a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingot is 16,775 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai lead basis is - 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 lead backwardation is - 31.80 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.49 dollars/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract is 47,978 lots, a decrease of 33.85%; the open interest is 64,534 lots, a decrease of 8.52% [1]. - The LME lead inventory is 270,350 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 60,932 tons, unchanged [1]. - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,020 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.12%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.37, a decrease of 0.21% [1]. Fundamentals - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment failure and maintenance last week, with a slight decline in production [1]. - The price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and recyclers have limited supplies. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost inversions, but the secondary lead market is gradually recovering [1]. - As the end of July approaches, the market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspend purchases for monthly inventory checks this week [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingot is 22,500 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract is 22,655 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai zinc basis is - 155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 zinc backwardation is - 3.92 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.97 dollars/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract is 127,217 lots, a decrease of 34.12%; the open interest is 117,616 lots, a decrease of 5.50% [1]. - The LME zinc inventory is 112,150 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 15,307 tons, an increase of 11.19% [1]. - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,814.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.32%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 8.05, a decrease of 0.28% [1]. Fundamentals - Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising in August due to abundant raw materials, weakening cost support and improving smelter profits and production enthusiasm [1]. - Zinc prices strengthened during the week, and downstream off - season purchases decreased significantly [1]. Weather Impact - Since July 23, North China has experienced heavy rainfall. Some reservoirs are at high water levels, and there are risks in river embankments in some areas. The raw material transportation of secondary lead smelters in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region is affected, but production is stable. The production and transportation of galvanizing plants in Tianjin, Handan, Tangshan, and Qian'an are not affected for now [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On July 30, 2025, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The prices of some industrial silicon products dropped, while the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon increased. The prices of polysilicon and downstream products such as silicon wafers, cells, and modules remained stable [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is mixed. The polysilicon market is in a situation where supply may increase slightly and demand is still weak. Both markets have fluctuating sentiments, and operations require caution [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 in different regions decreased, with drops ranging from 0.52% - 1.53%. The average price of oxygenated 553 also decreased, with drops between 1.01% - 1.53%. The average price of 421 in some regions decreased, and in some regions it remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 4.88% to 9,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged [1]. - **Polysilicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.83% to 50,805 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Wafer, Cell, and Module Prices**: All remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil prices all remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - Affected by the strong performance of industrial silicon prices and the increase in raw coal prices, the price of non - bonded silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of silicon coal in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the prices in Gansu and Shaanxi remained stable [1]. - Some domestic component companies slightly increased their centralized quotes due to cost - side pressure, but downstream acceptance was low, and recent transactions would mainly involve bargaining [1]. - European photovoltaics and energy storage power station developer SUNOTEC and Sungrow signed a strategic cooperation agreement to deploy 2.4GWh of battery energy storage systems in multiple solar projects in Europe [1]. Investment Strategies Industrial Silicon - Supply is expected to increase steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang resume production and the southwestern production areas enter the wet season. Demand is mixed, with polysilicon companies reducing production, some silicon material plants having复产 plans, organic silicon supply tightening due to an accident at a major factory, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchasing on demand [1]. - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded, but the bullish sentiment is volatile, and operations need to be cautious. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Supply may increase slightly as silicon material companies maintain production cuts and some may have new production capacity. Demand is still weak as the photovoltaic market is sluggish, but the trading atmosphere has improved slightly [1]. - The polysilicon futures price has continued to rise since the end of June, but the sentiment is volatile, and operations need to be cautious. Future attention should be paid to macro - sentiment evolution and warehouse receipt registration [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term downward trend for ethylene glycol (MEG), with a recommended strategy of short - selling at high prices [5]. Core Viewpoints - This week, MEG prices increased due to the overall upward movement of commodities, driven by policy factors such as "anti - involution" and "capacity optimization." However, the fundamentals remained unchanged, with downstream polyester maintaining the current production cut plan. Next week, MEG is expected to decline, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - **Price Movement Reason**: This week, MEG futures and spot prices rose with the overall commodity market, but the fundamentals were stable, and downstream polyester continued its production cut plan [5]. - **Next - Week Forecast**: Cost - wise, the results of US trade negotiations are a key concern, leading to weak crude oil price increases. Supply will increase as domestic and Saudi Arabian devices restart. Demand will remain stable as polyester maintains the current production level and weaving operations decline. Port inventory is expected to increase slightly. Overall, MEG is expected to decline, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Weekly trading volume was 1.18 million lots, and open interest was 280,400 lots (+9,300 lots). From July 21st to July 28th, the closing price of the MEG main contract increased by 26 yuan/ton (0.59%), and the settlement price increased by 65 yuan/ton (1.48%) [9][11]. - **Spot Market**: The average basis this week was 57.40 yuan/ton, lower than last week's 68.80 yuan/ton. The domestic and international MEG prices remained inverted, with a spread of 70 - 110 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Device Operation**: The overall MEG operating rate was 62.40% from July 22nd to July 28th, up from 61.40% in the previous period. Oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based operating rates were 63.94%, 60.07%, and 62.40% respectively. There were multiple device overhauls and restarts during the week [16][19]. - **Production Profit**: This week, the profit of coal - based MEG continued to rise slightly. The profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production routes were - 1637.13 yuan/ton, 701.23 yuan/ton, and - 104.05 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1657.42 yuan/ton, 649.11 yuan/ton, and - 115.65 US dollars/ton in the previous period [29][31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24th, MEG port inventory was 420,400 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period. The decline in both hidden and visible inventories contributed to MEG's high ranking in the industry chain's price increase [35]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: The market is concerned about US tariff policies. The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, methanol, and thermal coal have an impact on MEG [42][43]. - **Demand**: Polyester factories did not further cut production. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.87%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.26%. The prices of polyester products were mixed, with some products declining and others rising. The textile market was in a slow season, with weak demand and low production enthusiasm among factories [46][53]. - **Market Sentiment**: The positive commodity sentiment boosted the industry's confidence, and some downstream buyers actively purchased, resulting in a significant increase in polyester filament sales on Tuesday. However, overall, downstream buying intention was low, and the inventory of polyester factories continued to rise [55][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX had a staged breakthrough due to improved macro - atmosphere and unexpected device situations. PTA also had a staged breakthrough as market sentiment was released, with the market trading on the logic of eliminating backward production capacity [7]. - **Future Forecast**: Crude oil price increase is lackluster due to the market's cautious attitude towards US trade negotiations. PX may have a supply reduction with the potential shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton PX device. PTA has low processing fees and production losses but no new official reduction or maintenance plans. Polyester device maintenance plans are limited, and the weaving market remains weak. Overall, PX is expected to adjust in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Situation PX - **Futures**: The PX futures contract rebounded to around 7,000. On July 25, the closing price was 7,062 yuan/ton, up 252 yuan/ton or 3.70% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 7,022 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton or 3.14% from July 18 [13][15]. - **Spot**: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were average, more active in the second half of the week. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 173 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,751.8 yuan/ton, up 47.2 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous period [16][18]. PTA - **Futures**: The price center rose step - by - step. On July 25, the closing price of the main contract was 4,936 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan/ton or 4.02% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 4,902 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton or 3.19% from July 18 [20][22]. - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 4.50 yuan/ton. The average weekly arrival price of PTA in the Chinese market was 614.8 US dollars/ton, up 11.2 US dollars/ton or 1.85% from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,819 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton or 1.71% from the previous period [23][25]. 2. Device Operation Situation PX Devices - **Domestic**: Many domestic PX enterprises had different load - adjustment situations, such as Ningbo Daxie running at 70% load, and some devices of Sheng虹 Refining and Chemical reducing their loads [30]. - **Asia**: Asian PX devices in different regions also had various operation states, including startups, shutdowns, and load adjustments [32][33]. PTA Devices - Some PTA devices were under maintenance, like the 1.2 - million - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 2 - million - ton device of Hainan Yisheng. There were no new PTA device maintenance or restart plans this week, and the weekly operation rate remained stable [37][38]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Cost - **Crude Oil**: Without significant news, oil prices were in a stalemate. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 25 was 65.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.89 US dollars/barrel from July 18, and Brent crude oil's was 67.66 US dollars/barrel, down 1.62 US dollars/barrel from July 18 [43][45]. - **Naphtha**: The supply was abundant due to increased exports from the Middle East and Europe to Asia, and demand decreased as LPG replaced it in cracking devices. The weekly average price of CFR Japan was 572.65 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 23.52 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - **PX Spot**: PX continued to reduce inventory, and prices rose steadily. The weekly average price of CFR China Main Port was 851.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.50% from the previous period; the weekly average price of FOB South Korea was 826.80 US dollars/ton, up 1.55% from the previous period [55]. Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The profit was good, with the PXN weekly average at 280.82 yuan/ton, up 9.38% from the previous period, and the PX - MX weekly average at 111.90 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level due to raw material cost pressure from PX and poor demand. The average spot processing fee from July 21 - 25 was 228.17 yuan/ton [59][61]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, PTA social inventory was 4.502 million tons, up 60,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of PTA factories increased by 0.13 days, and that of polyester factories decreased by 0.20 days [65][67]. Demand - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products fluctuated slightly, with different weekly average price changes. The average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated at 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.87%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.26% [70][79]. - **Weaving**: The off - season market continued, with weak demand in the grey fabric market. Most weaving factories faced losses, and new orders were insufficient [85][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have limited improvement in the weak reality. The downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent disturbances on the supply side, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000 [4][84] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 15.82%. The trading volume reached 6.27 million lots (+1.98 million), and the open interest reached 491,100 lots (+113,800). The basis was at a discount of 7,620 yuan/ton [5][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In June, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,450 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 6.6%; lithium mica production was 16,800 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. Lithium concentrate imports decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. In April, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [12][16][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In June, the recycling of waste lithium batteries was 18,366 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. In June, lithium carbonate imports decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In June, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 10,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.2% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In June, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 35%, and the production was 24,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.8%. Exports were 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [39] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 77,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In June, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 56%, and the production was 229,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 56% [42] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary materials production was 15,502 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. In June, imports and exports increased [47] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In June, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 36%, and the production was 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. Exports decreased in June [50] 3.3.4 Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In June, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the production was 11,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 19%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 57%, and the production was 9,730 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4% [51] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In June, electrolyte production was 159,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 45.6%. Exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased in June [54] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, power battery production was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. The installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 36.0% [60] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, new energy vehicle production was 1.268 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. Sales were 1.329 million units, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In June, energy storage battery production was 41.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 13.9% and a year - on - year increase of 42.7%. In May, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.15 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.66 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [68] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 108.27 million units, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 31.59 million units, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [71] 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices rebounded. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by $75/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 460 yuan/ton [74] 3.6 Inventory - Total inventory decreased by 550 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 2,654 tons, downstream inventory increased by 1,544 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,660 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 168 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 229 tons [80][81] 3.7 Market Outlook - The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000. On the resource side, there are frequent disturbances in domestic lithium mica supply, lithium spodumene production increases, and lithium ore imports decrease. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, imported lithium salt volume decreased, Chile's lithium salt exports were low, and the recycling end continued to decline. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories were stable. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased and ternary materials inventory increased; energy storage battery production scheduling increased, and the winning bid scale of energy storage increased. On the cost side, the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rebounded significantly. In terms of inventory, overall inventory decreased, smelters' inventory decreased, and downstream and other inventory increased. Overall, the weak reality of lithium carbonate fundamentals has limited improvement, the downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent supply - side disturbances, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant, so lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely [84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The lead market currently has no prominent contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. The supply side shows an incremental trend with the expected resumption of production of primary lead and the slow recovery of recycled lead production. The market still has expectations for the downstream consumption peak season. As the lead price drops, the downstream hedging sentiment eases, and procurement may improve. The short - term lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.30% to 16,750 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.80% to 16,955 yuan/ton, and the London lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.45% to 2,020.5 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: Relevant data shows the historical basis situation from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis of the current basis situation is provided [12]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 18, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 74.6 yuan/ton [25]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 63.37% month - on - month. Some smelters in Henan are under regular maintenance, and a smelter in North China has resumed production but not at full capacity. Some smelters in Central and East China have future maintenance plans. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in some regions has changed, with the total output increasing from 45,215 tons in the week of July 18 to 48,375 tons this week [26][33]. - **Recycled Lead**: The average price of waste batteries remained flat at 10,250 yuan/ton as of July 25. The scrap peak season has not started, and the arrival of waste batteries is still tight. The losses of recycled lead smelters fluctuated slightly. As of July 28, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 481 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 706 yuan/ton. The raw material and finished product inventories of recycled lead decreased. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 2.8 percentage points to 40.7%, and the weekly output recovered to 4.24 tons as of last Friday [40][46][49][50]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased by 0.9 percentage points to 71.86%. As the traditional peak season approaches, the production enthusiasm of electric bicycles has improved, with some enterprises' operating rates reaching about 90%. The operating rate of automotive batteries is around 70 - 80% due to weak domestic terminals and the impact of tariffs on some export orders [56]. 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of July 18, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the import profit was - 834.57 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [66]. 5. Inventory Analysis - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 7.14 tons, showing an increase. Downstream procurement is mainly from primary lead smelters, and the inventory of mainstream smelters has decreased, but social inventory has increased [76]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of July 25, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 6.33 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the LME inventory was 26.63 tons, showing a slight decrease [79]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from April 2024 to June 2025 [80].