Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The uncertainty of Sino-US tariff negotiations may put pressure on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight due to disturbances in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, and the demand-side capacity utilization rate has increased. Considering the expected future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Fed, it is advisable to wait for the price to fall before mainly laying out long positions. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price was 85,420, the trading volume was 112,173 lots, the open interest was 233,361 lots, and the inventory was 36,253 tons. The basis was -465, and the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 84,955 [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,658.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -6.36 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.005, and the total inventory was 346,499 [2]. 3.2. Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation - **Supply**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disturbances, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates has been negative, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. 3.3. Trading Strategy Wait for the price to fall and mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The nickel market has a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has a loose fundamental situation, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Price and Volume**: On October 22, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 73,851 lots (+13,460), and the open interest was 121,311 lots (+70,923). LME nickel fell 0.23%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices rose. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased, and the port inventory decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Price and Volume**: On October 22, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated upwards. The trading volume was 99,210 lots (-26,868), and the open interest was 179,530 lots (-8,802). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. Last week, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 621,700 tons (+2,300) [1]. - **Supply**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but 300 - series production decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. Industry Data - **Nickel Consumption Structure**: In 2024, global primary nickel consumption reached 3.35 million tons. The stainless - steel sector accounted for 66%, ranking first. The power - battery sector accounted for 16%, ranking second, and was the fastest - growing sector in the past decade, becoming the core driver of nickel - demand growth. From 2022 - 2024, the compound annual growth rate of nickel consumption was stable at 6%. The proportions of each sector remained balanced. The entire market structure did not show significant fluctuations. In the first half of this year, global nickel consumption continued its positive trend. From January to July, primary nickel consumption reached 2.024 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [1]. - **Inventory Data**: China's port nickel - ore total inventory was 10.5 million wet tons; SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained unchanged; SMM pure - nickel social inventory showed changes; the total stainless - steel spot inventory decreased by 10,100 tons, with different trends in 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless - steel inventories [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The uncertainty of the start - up of secondary lead due to raw material issues provides some support for lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to remain range - bound. For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand, and the price is under pressure. Additionally, attention should be paid to the increasing LME 0 - 3 back structure as LME zinc inventories are continuously depleted [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged from the previous day at 17,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract also remained unchanged at 17,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 33.36% to 29,011 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20.89% to 26,547 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 244,125 tons, and the SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 11.22% to 24,977 tons [1] - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, which has not had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in the start - up rate. For secondary lead, previously shut - down smelters are gradually resuming production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises are operating well, with an increase in demand [1] - **Company News**: Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate production to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and lead concentrate production to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. MMG's zinc mine production in Q3 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading and continue to monitor the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises and changes in macro - sentiment [1] Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.18% to 21,830 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 22,000 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 5.76% to 102,274 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.72% to 132,692 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 35,300 tons, and the SHFE zinc warrant inventory decreased by 1.60% to 65,209 tons [1] - **Fundamentals**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are continuously rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 3,400 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the monthly production is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. There is no significant improvement in demand, and the zinc ingot export window is expected to open as the SHFE - LME ratio continues to deteriorate [1] - **Company News**: MMG's zinc mine production in Q3 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. Boliden's Odda smelter's refined zinc production decreased compared to the previous quarter, affected by a shortage of intermediate materials, and SMM expects its 2025 actual output to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading and be vigilant about overseas structural risks [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in oil prices may drive a rebound in methanol prices, but the amplitude is likely to be limited, and it is still necessary to wait before going long on methanol. The methanol price is relatively high in terms of valuation, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and subsequent driving forces may come from possible supply reductions such as Iran's gas - restriction expectations. Overall, it is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased by 7 yuan/ton (-0.31%) to 2261 yuan/ton; MA05 increased by 12 yuan/ton (0.52%) to 2300 yuan/ton; MA09 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.31%) to 2259 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol spot prices: Prices in different regions had various changes, with the largest decrease in Shandong (-17.50 yuan/ton, -0.77%) and the largest increase in Inner Mongolia (15 yuan/ton, 0.75%) [1] - Coal and natural gas prices: Coal prices in some regions increased slightly, while industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 6.30 yuan/ton (-2.51%) to 244.40 yuan/ton; natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged at -472.00 yuan/ton [1] - MTO profit: Northwest MTO profit increased by 69 yuan/ton (65.09%) to -37 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit increased by 133 yuan/ton (14.22%) to -802.07 yuan/ton [1] - Other product profits: Acetic acid profit increased by 197.69 yuan/ton (38.15%) to 715.85 yuan/ton, while MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1] 3. Market Information - Domestic market: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed weak upward momentum, opening at 2276 yuan/ton, closing at 2261 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 579,308 lots and open interest of 1,097,780, showing reduced volume and increased open interest [1] - Foreign market: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are currently shut down, and attention should be paid to the later natural gas supply and recent tendering situations in the Middle East [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - Urea is currently undervalued, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. The current strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has stabilized after falling to a near - five - year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream purchases are cautious. Future possible driving forces include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On October 22, UR01 closed at 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1691 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.54%; UR09 closed at 1725 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35%. Domestic spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for Jiangsu, where it decreased by 10 yuan or 0.65% [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 9 yuan to - 151 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 70 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream prices such as compound fertilizers (45%S), melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1621 yuan/ton, with a high of 1625 yuan/ton, a low of 1610 yuan/ton, a close of 1621 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1617 yuan/ton, and a position of 312,046 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side still shows a certain increase while the demand improvement is limited. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upside of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. [1] - For polysilicon, recent news on the supply side has led to an upward movement in the polysilicon futures market. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, there is little possibility of concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may limit the upside of the futures market. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained stable at 9,300 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, while the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 0.24% to 8,485 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area is entering the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises planning to reduce or halt production by the end of this month or next month, while the operation rate of northern silicon enterprises has increased. Overall, the total operation rate has increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may still be an increase in output in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain their pre - holiday operation level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream has limited willingness to stock up at low prices. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upside of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to conduct range trading. [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained stable at 51.50 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material remained at 53.00 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained at 50.50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 0.80% to 50,310 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon material enterprises are maintaining a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity coming online. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output in October is expected to increase slightly. During the National Day holiday, the market trading was light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, there is little possibility of concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may limit the upside of the futures market. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position. [1] Industry News - On October 15, 2025, a 100MW photovoltaic project in the oil and gas industry in Luntai County, Tarim Oilfield, Xinjiang officially started construction. The project is expected to be completed by December 30, 2025, and is planned to be connected to the grid on January 30, 2026, with full - capacity grid connection on April 30, 2026. After operation, it will generate 160 million kWh of electricity annually, replace 49,700 tons of standard coal, and reduce 129,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions. [1] - In October 2025, China Energy Engineering Group Co., Ltd. signed three new - energy general contracting contracts with Saudi partners to jointly build a 5GW clean - energy project worth approximately $2.745 billion (about 19.554 billion yuan). The project includes 3GW of wind power and 2GW of photovoltaic power. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - On October 21, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market was mostly in a wait - and - see mode, and the discount widened. With both supply and demand strong currently, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakening, the downstream destocking is slowing down, and the demand inflection point may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited [1]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Price Data - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On October 21, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 75800 yuan/ton, 75580 yuan/ton, 75980 yuan/ton, and 75980 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 197,979 lots (+28,871), and the open interest of the active contract was 310,199 lots (+171,765). The inventory was 29,892 tons (-813) [1]. - **Lithium Ore and Related Products**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 854 US dollars/ton (+3), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1115 yuan/ton (+15), and lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1845 yuan/ton (+20). The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton, and (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 7520 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Chemical Products**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,100 yuan/ton (+100), and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 71,850 yuan/ton (+100). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.45 US dollars/kg (unchanged) [1]. - **Other Products**: The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95%/domestic) was 82,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), and the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 102,650 yuan/ton (+100) [1]. 2. Market Information - Sigma Lithium canceled its plan to start producing lithium carbonate in Brazil and instead focused on tripling its lithium ore production by 2030. As prices decline, market participants are shifting to mid - stream processing to ensure stable production of raw materials and precursors, which are the main cost - driving factors for electric vehicle batteries [1]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and lithium ore prices such as spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rose [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the scheduled production of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries will increase in October [1]. 4. Inventory Situation - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 136,825 tons (-2,143), with smelters and downstream sectors destocking [1]. 5. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to sell short at the upper edge of the short - term trading range [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: On October 21, the nickel market had a weak fundamental situation with pressure, but the valuation was at a low level. It was expected that the nickel price would fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [1]. - Stainless steel: On October 21, the stainless - steel market had a loose fundamental situation and weak cost support. It was expected that the price would fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy was to sell short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Data**: - On October 21, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) increased compared to the previous day, with increases ranging from 430 to 520 yuan/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 60,391 hands (- 8,453), and the open interest was 50,388 hands (- 8,270). The LME nickel price fell 0.08%. The ratio of Shanghai - LME nickel futures prices was 7.97 (+ 0.04) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures increased by 158 tons to 27,026 tons. The LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 250,476 tons, with registered warrants decreasing by 244,356 tons and cancelled warrants decreasing by 6,120 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was average, and the premium of the basis decreased. The prices of nickel ore remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants deepened. In October, domestic nickel - iron production increased, and Indonesian production also increased, leading to a reduction in nickel - iron inventory. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand Side**: Ternary cathode production increased, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Data**: - On October 21, the stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) showed an upward - oscillating trend. The trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract was 126,078 hands (+ 1,298), and the open interest was 188,332 hands (- 9,862) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai stainless - steel futures decreased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 621,700 tons (+ 2,300) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was acceptable, and the premium of the basis decreased. In October, stainless - steel production schedules increased, but 300 - series production schedules decreased. Terminal demand was weak. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. Inventory Data - **Nickel**: SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 10.53 million wet tons (+ 0.03 million), SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained at 3,100 tons, and SMM pure - nickel social inventory was 47,708 tons (+ 4,014) [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The total stainless - steel spot inventory was 915,700 tons (- 10,100), with 200 - series at 172,200 tons (- 8,700), 300 - series at 621,700 tons (+ 2,300), and 400 - series at 121,800 tons (- 3,700) [2]. Industry News Vale's nickel sales in the third quarter were 42,900 tons, and its nickel production was 46,800 tons [1].

| 2025/10/23 | 品种 | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/10/22 2025/10/22 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 58.50 62.59 | 57.24 61.32 | 2.20% 2.07% | | | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/10/22 | 美元/吨 | 551.50 | 540.00 | 2.13% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/10/22 | | 美元/吨 | 672.50 | 666.50 | 0.90% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/10/22 | 美元/吨 | 798.00 | 783.67 | 1.83% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/10/22 | 元/吨 | 4482.00 | 441 ...

宏源期货 金属研究团队 王文虎 （从业资格证号：F03087656，投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472），TEL：021-51801878 董晓妮 （从业资格证号：F0287405， 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0017234），TEL：0531-89015080 张 蕾 （从业资格证号：F03086068，投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019377），TEL：0512-68261540 氧化铝 有色金属周报-氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金 关税不确定性和国内社库缓降或使铝价震荡 2025年10月22日 清镇市铝土矿循环利用项目一期50万吨高硫铝土矿脱硫6月启动投料生产铝精矿44万吨/年，吕梁矿业旗 下杨家沟铝土矿(年产能为60万吨，地下采矿)于8月底投产，使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比升高(下 降)，或使国内铝土矿10月生产(进口)量环比增加(减少)； 壹石通的重庆年产9,800吨导热用球形氧化铝项目或于25年9月底正式投产，广西防城港25年3月开始建 设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝10月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝较电解铝9月 运行产能过剩量环比扩大； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项 ...