1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The strong signal of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December may lead to an adjustment in precious metal prices due to the expected return of "cheap money" in yen, while the weak performance of some US economic and employment data and the dovish statements of some Fed officials have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [1] - The global supply - demand of platinum is expected to be tight in 2025 - 2026, but the expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December and the Bank of Japan's rate hike may lead to an adjustment in platinum prices [1] - The global supply - demand of palladium is expected to shift from tight to loose in 2025 - 2026, and similar to platinum, the Fed and Bank of Japan's policies may cause an adjustment in palladium prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Precious Metals Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 958.27 yuan/gram, with a daily change of 10.86 and a weekly change of 17.58; COMEX gold futures' closing price was 4265.00 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 8.60 and a weekly change of 188.30 [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13261.00 yuan/kg, with a daily change of 592.00 and a weekly change of 1129.00; COMEX silver futures' closing price was 58.45 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 1.37 and a weekly change of 8.10 [1] 3.2 Important Information - The contraction of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in November reached the largest in four months, with employment further contracting and prices rising [1] - The Bank of Japan's governor strongly hinted at an interest rate hike in December, aiming to raise the interest rate to 0.75% [1] 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The expected return of "cheap money" yen may lead to an adjustment in precious metal prices, while the Fed's possible rate cut in December provides support [1] - **Platinum**: Supply is disturbed by high mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging equipment, while demand from multiple industries is expected to rise, but price adjustments may occur due to central bank policies [1] - **Palladium**: Supply may increase due to the global vehicle scrapping cycle, while demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline, and price adjustments may also be affected by central bank policies [1] 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Platinum**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, or consider the arbitrage opportunity of "long platinum, short palladium". Pay attention to support and resistance levels for London and domestic platinum prices [1] - **Palladium**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels. Pay attention to support and resistance levels for London and domestic palladium prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead Market**: Lead prices oscillated and declined, with the support at the raw material end weakening due to some smelters lowering waste battery prices. Considering the tight raw materials and reduced supply, the downside space for lead prices is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The zinc ore supply is continuously tightening, and TC is likely to fall rather than rise, which may disrupt the supply side and provide some support for zinc prices. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, and be vigilant about the recurrence of overseas structural risks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On December 2, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,975 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 41.94 dollars/ton on November 28, with an open interest of 167,985 contracts, an increase of 1,812 contracts [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, last week, more smelters had maintenance, and the production of primary lead decreased. In the secondary lead sector, a smelter in Yunnan reduced production due to maintenance. The consumption of lead - acid batteries for electric bicycles is gradually weakening, while the automotive battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. - **Industry News**: The new mandatory national standard for electric bicycles (GB 17761 - 2024) was fully implemented on December 1, 2025, and the old - version standard vehicles are prohibited from being sold. The new standard has multi - dimensional upgrades, with a significant improvement in fire - prevention performance as the core highlight [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On December 2, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 224.43 dollars/ton on November 28, with an open interest of 219,731 contracts, a decrease of 2,655 contracts [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Due to economic considerations, smelters are actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, and the domestic ore supply is tight. Processing fees are expected to continue to decline. The smelter's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly production is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. The demand side is still weak, and the start - up of some downstream enterprises has decreased due to environmental protection and cold weather [1]. - **Industry News**: The national mining group of country A (SONAREM) emphasized that the Bejaia zinc - lead mine project must start production as planned, with an annual production of 170,000 tons of zinc concentrate and 30,000 tons of lead concentrate. The project is in the final stage of land acquisition compensation, and legal procedures are about to end [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the subsequent new warehouse receipt registration and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises. For polysilicon, downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which suppresses the upside space of the market [1] - The trading strategy for industrial silicon is range operation, and the trading strategy for polysilicon is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 0.51% to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.16% to 9,145 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: Southwest silicon enterprises' production suspension has basically been implemented, with the start - up at the lowest level of the year. The start - up in the north is relatively stable. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in December will fluctuate slightly around 400,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, organic silicon enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at a low level is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 increased by 0.10% to 52.35 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg; N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg; the closing price of the futures main contract rose by 2.27% to 57,705 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises continue to reduce production, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November will decrease to about 120,000 tons month - on - month [1] - **Demand**: The polysilicon market trading is light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources, and the market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1] Industry News - On December 1st, the State Grid New Energy Cloud announced the mechanism electricity price bidding results of Jibei Power Grid. A total of 1,209 projects were short - listed, including 1,172 photovoltaic projects with a mechanism electricity volume of 3,613,181.236 MWh and a mechanism electricity price of 0.352 yuan/kWh, and 37 wind power projects with a mechanism electricity volume of 10,370,416.581 MWh and a mechanism electricity price of 0.347 yuan/kWh [1] - On December 1st, the State Grid New Energy Cloud publicized the mechanism electricity price bidding results of incremental new energy projects in 2026. The mechanism electricity volume of offshore photovoltaic bidding projects is 1,596,912.011 MWh, and the mechanism electricity price is 388.0 yuan/MWh for 10 projects; the mechanism electricity volume of other new energy types is 661,291.372 MWh, and the mechanism electricity price is 350.0 yuan/MWh for 6,294 projects [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Categories Price Information - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan is $567.50 per ton, down 0.70% from the previous value [1] - The price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia is $41.07 per ton, up 1.37% [1] - The ex - factory average price of ethane in East China is 5,800 yuan per ton, down 3.33% [1] - The spot price of methanol MA is 2,107.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The closing price of DCE EG's main contract is 3,882 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1] - The settlement price of DCE EG's main contract is 3,893 yuan per ton, up 0.57% [1] - The closing price of DCE EG's near - month contract is 3,850 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [1] - The settlement price of DCE EG's near - month contract is 3,819 yuan per ton, up 0.05% [1] - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China is 3,880 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol's domestic market is 3,885 yuan per ton, down 0.13% [1] - The price difference between near and far months is - 74 yuan per ton, a change of - 20 yuan [1] - The basis is 3 yuan per ton, a change of - 2 yuan [1] Production and Operation Conditions - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate is 63.81%, up 0.33% [1] - The operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol is 70.45%, unchanged [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 53.80%, up 0.84% [1] - The load rate of the polyester factory in the PTA industrial chain is 89.17%, down 0.02% [1] - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industrial chain is 71.59%, unchanged [1] Cash Flow - The after - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG is - 1,581.11 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [1] - The after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method is - 219.47 yuan per ton, a decrease of 64.16 yuan [1] Polyester Price - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY is 8,550 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY is 6,800.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber is 6,350 yuan per ton, up 0.79% [1] - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips is 5,740 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Device Information - A 900,000 - ton/year MEG device in East China has been restarted after a shutdown for maintenance in late October [1] - Another 1,000,000 - ton/year MEG device in East China is planned to shut down in early December for a relatively long time [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is the result of market consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level [1]. - Strategically, focus on opportunities to go long on dips in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On December 1st, compared with November 28th, the UR01 urea futures price in Shandong decreased by 2 yuan/ton (-0.12%), while the spot price increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.20%); UR05 increased by 1 yuan/ton (0.06%); UR09 increased by 6 yuan/ton (0.34%) [1]. - Among domestic spot prices, the prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with increases ranging from 1.20% - 1.79%, while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis between Shandong spot and UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged; the price of Shandong compound fertilizer (45%S) increased by 20 yuan/ton (0.66%), and the weekly price increased by 20 yuan/ton (0.78%) [1]. - The prices of downstream products such as melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1682 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1691 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1673 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1675 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton. The position volume was 219,692 lots [1]. Long - Short Logic - From a valuation perspective, the rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices were low at the beginning of the week and high at the end, mainly due to the continued enthusiasm for gasoline blending in the market. The hype about gasoline blending continued to cool down, but from the supply - demand perspective, the South Korean GS plant has a later shutdown plan, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has a CDU maintenance plan in January, which may lead to a decline in PX load and an expected improvement in the PX supply side. The sentiment support for PX remained strong during the week [8]. - PTA prices followed the cost increase, mainly due to a slight reduction in inventory and the strength of PX. There were few changes in PTA plants this week. Honggang Petrochemical restarted, and Zhongtai Petrochemical increased its load. The average processing fee for the week was still below 200 yuan/ton. The downstream polyester start - up rate remained oscillating around 89%. The polyester factories' equity inventory was not high, and the rigid demand for PTA was good [8]. 2.2 Future Market Forecast - Crude oil: The biggest problem in the peaceful settlement of the Russia - Ukraine issue lies in territorial disputes, and the probability of short - term negotiation success is low. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate narrowly. PX: The domestic PX supply has entered a relatively stable stage. Recently, focus on the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. PTA: The delay in plant maintenance has accelerated short - term inventory reduction, but there are no other plant start - stop plans later, and the processing fee will remain low this year. Polyester: The market is transitioning to the off - season, short - term demand is generally stable, and there are positive news in the export market, but it needs time to verify. Weaving: The downstream new orders are weakening, and the坯布 inventory is gradually transitioning from destocking to slight inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to improve this year [11]. - Overall, PX will fluctuate at a high level, with an operating range of 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton; PTA will also fluctuate at a high level, with an operating range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **PX Futures**: The closing price of the PX main contract on November 28 was 6830 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 1.19%. The settlement price on November 28 was 6780 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 0.06% [16]. - **PX Spot**: From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was - 227 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6535.20 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a change of - 0.02% [19]. 3.1.2 PTA - **PTA Futures**: The closing price of the PTA main contract on November 28 was 4700 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of 0.73%. The settlement price on November 28 was 4672 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from November 21, with an overall change of - 0.13% [22][23]. - **PTA Spot**: From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was - 40.40 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 584 US dollars/ton, up 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period, with a change of 0.01%. The average price of PTA spot in the East China market was 4627.8 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a change of 0.05% [26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - **Domestic PX Devices**: Many domestic PX plants have different operating loads. For example, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. operates at 90% load, and Yangzi Petrochemical operates at full load. The overall domestic PX plant load decreased slightly from 90.50% from November 17 - 21 to 88.92% from November 24 - 28, mainly due to the early maintenance of Zhonghua Quanzhou [30][34]. - **Asian Other PX Devices**: Some PX plants in Asia have experienced changes such as shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia restarted after a shutdown in early January, and GS Caltex in South Korea plans to shut down around mid - December [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Many PTA plants are in a state of shutdown or maintenance. For example, Yisheng Dalian's 225 - ton PTA plant has been shut down since August 8, and the restart time is undetermined. Recently, there have been many PTA plant maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped by 2.37% [37][38]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Although the net increase of international crude oil futures this week was about 1%, the market's expectation of an increase in global supply still suppressed oil prices. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 58.55 US dollars/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars/barrel from November 21. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.18 US dollars/barrel from November 21 [43][45]. - **Naphtha**: The demand for naphtha in Europe is weak, and the gasoline blending demand is not enough to support the price. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 561.78 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 67.81 US dollars/ton. The ethylene cracking weekly average price rebounded this week [50]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The short - process efficiency has expanded due to the hype of gasoline blending. The weekly average PXN was 265.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 2.24%. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 107 US dollars/ton [55]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee has remained low this year and is expected to improve next year. From November 24 - 28, the average spot processing fee of PTA this week was 209.11 yuan/ton, compared with 177.03 yuan/ton last week [59]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the social inventory of PTA was 3.871 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous week, with a month - on - month growth rate change of - 0.42%. The PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.03 days, and the polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.35 days [63][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The overall demand is not strong, which is negative for polyester product prices. The average market prices of polyester filament semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 0.76%, 0.19%, and 0.22% respectively compared with the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a decline of 0.02%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5680 - 5760 yuan/ton, and the average price this period was 5728.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period [69][72]. - **Weaving**: The domestic weaving market demand has significantly weakened, and the placement of foreign trade orders is relatively smooth. As of November 27, the opening rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang and Changxing remained stable, the circular knitting machine opening rate in Xiaoshao decreased by 1.19%, and the warp - knitting opening rates in Haining and Changshu remained stable [84][86].

Group 1: Main Views Weekly Summary - PX prices were low at the beginning of the week and high at the end due to continued market enthusiasm for gasoline blending. Supply-side expectations are positive as the South Korean GS plant has a later shutdown plan and Zhejiang Petrochemical has a CDU maintenance plan in January. - PTA prices followed the cost increase, with slight inventory reduction and strong PX as the main reasons. PTA plant changes were few this week, and the processing fee average was still below 200 yuan/ton. Downstream polyester开工 remained around 89%, and polyester factories' equity inventory was not high, with strong rigid demand for PTA [7]. Market Outlook Forecast - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly as the short-term probability of a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine issue is low. PX supply in China has entered a relatively stable phase, and the focus is on the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. PTA inventory is decreasing in the short term, but processing fees will remain low this year. Polyester demand is generally stable in the short term, and the export market has positive news but needs time to verify. The downstream weaving market has weak new orders, and inventory is gradually increasing, with no improvement expected this year. - Overall, PX will oscillate at a high level in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA will also oscillate at a high level in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. - Strategy recommendation: Stay on the sidelines [10]. Group 2: Price Situation PX Futures - The closing price of the PX main contract on November 28 was 6,830 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 1.19%. The settlement price on November 28 was 6,780 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 0.06%. - From November 24 - 28, the average basis of the main contract was -227 yuan/ton. The average domestic spot price of PX was 6,535.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of -0.02% [15][17]. PTA Futures - The closing price of the PTA main contract on November 28 was 4,700 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of 0.73%. The settlement price on November 28 was 4,672 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from November 21, a change of -0.13%. - The average weekly price of PTA in the Chinese market was 584 US dollars/ton, up 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of 0.01%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,627.8 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of 0.05% [21][24]. Group 3: Device Operation Status PX Device - Domestic PX device load decreased slightly due to the early maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou. From November 24 - 28, the load was 88.92%, compared with 90.50% from November 17 - 21. - Asian PX device operation status: Some devices in South Korea, Indonesia, and other regions have load changes and maintenance plans [33][31]. PTA Device - Many PTA devices are under maintenance, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The weekly开工 rate decreased by 2.37%. Some devices such as Yisheng Dahua, Hainan Yisheng, and others have been shut down or are under maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined [36][37]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Cost - Crude oil: Although the international crude oil futures rose about 1% this week, the expectation of increased global supply still suppressed oil prices. WTI crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 58.55 US dollars/barrel, up 0.49 US dollars/barrel from November 21. Brent crude oil futures settlement price on November 28 was 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.18 US dollars/barrel from November 21. - Naphtha: European naphtha demand is weak, and the blending demand is insufficient to support prices. The average weekly price of naphtha CFR Japan was 561.78 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 67.81 US dollars/ton [42][44]. Supply - PX processing margin: The short-process efficiency has expanded due to gasoline blending speculation. The weekly average of PXN was 265.49 yuan/ton, a change of 2.24% from the previous period. PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 107 US dollars/ton. - PTA processing fee: The processing fee has remained low this year and is expected to improve next year. From November 24 - 28, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 209.11 yuan/ton. - Inventory: PTA inventory reduction provides bottom support for prices, but there may be negative feedback after the terminal actively reduces the load in January. As of November 28, PTA social inventory was 3.871 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous week [52][56][61]. Demand - Polyester: Overall demand is weak, which is negative for polyester product prices. The average market prices of polyester filament and staple fiber have declined to varying degrees. From November 24 - 28, the average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 60%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.19%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 71.73%. - Weaving: The domestic weaving market demand has significantly weakened, and foreign trade orders are relatively smooth. As of November 27, the opening rates of some weaving areas were stable or slightly decreased [67][72][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current valuation of lithium carbonate is high, and the price is expected to oscillate and decline. The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate show a pattern of strong supply and demand, but downstream demand growth has stagnated, and the exchange has taken measures to cool the market. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price still has room for correction. The recommended investment strategy is to sell short on rallies, with an operating range of 80,000 - 104,000 [6][97] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The basis is at a discount of 2,670 yuan/ton [10] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%; lithium mica production was 7,700 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5% [14] - In October, the import volume of lithium concentrate increased to 531,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [18] - In October, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 73,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 32.4% [22] Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,865 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% - In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate increased to 23,881 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0% - In October, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 16,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 46.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% [31][33] Lithium Hydroxide - In December, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 43%, with a scheduled production of 28,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.1% - In October, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 2,876 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.3% [40] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 95,713 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% - In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 19,261 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% - In October, the import volume decreased and the export volume increased [49] Ternary Precursors - In December, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 43%, with a scheduled production of 80,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 4.3% - In October, the export volume increased slightly [54] Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In December, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 44%, with a scheduled production of 12,470 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 3% - In December, the operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 69%, with a scheduled production of 13,235 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [55] Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0% - In October, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [62] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In October, the production of power batteries was 170.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.8% - In October, the installed capacity of power batteries was 84.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1% - Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.46 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%; the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.21 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% [65][66] New Energy Vehicles - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 21.1% - In October, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9% [71] Energy Storage - In December, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 57.4 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 50.1% - In October, the power scale of energy - storage bids was 6.07 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 65.8%; the capacity scale of energy - storage bids was 16.35 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 67.5% [77] Consumer Electronics - In October, China's smartphone production was 116.93 million, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and year - on - year flat - In October, China's micro - computer production was 24.22 million, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [80] 1.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices have risen. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate has increased by 61 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica has increased by 50 yuan/ton [85] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 2,452 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory has decreased by 1,780 tons, downstream inventory has decreased by 2,452 tons, and other inventory has increased by 1,780 tons - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate has increased by 1,757 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials has increased by 71 tons [92][93] 1.7 Market Outlook - The recommended investment strategy is to sell short on rallies, with an operating range of 80,000 - 104,000 - In the resource end, the supply of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi is still at a low level, lithium spodumene production has increased, and lithium ore imports have risen - In the supply end, last week's weekly production of lithium carbonate declined, mainly due to the decrease in salt - lake production and the increase in lithium carbonate production from other raw materials; the import volume of lithium salts has increased, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile has increased, and the recycling end has maintained stable growth - In the demand end, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales has slowed down, the weekly production of power cells has rebounded, last week lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have accumulated inventory; the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries has stagnated, and the scale of energy - storage bids has declined - In the cost end, the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have increased - In terms of inventory, the overall inventory has decreased, smelters and downstream have reduced inventory, and other inventory has increased [97]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weak U.S. employment performance has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Copper Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots, an open interest of 218,257 lots, and an inventory of 35,244 tons. The price increased by 440 compared to the previous day, the trading volume decreased by 810 lots, the open interest increased by 7,573 lots, and the inventory decreased by 629 tons [3] - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) on November 28, 2025, was 11,175.5, up 245.5 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 44.69, up 28.13 from the previous day, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 195, up 28.75 from the previous day [3] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on November 28, 2025, was 5.278, up 0.17 from November 25. The total inventory was 418,727, an increase of 2,847 from November 25 [3] 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3] - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods decreased, and that of recycled copper rods remained flat. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [3] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper increased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [3] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly - position, and try to go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for U.S. copper [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current supply and demand are both strong. With the repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi, the weekly output of lithium carbonate at a high level, and the strong wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, the spot and futures markets have light trading volume, weakening power demand, and the exchange taking measures to cool down the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data - **Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 94,560 yuan/ton, 94,640 yuan/ton, 94,800 yuan/ton, and 94,800 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 600 yuan/ton, 640 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The closing price of the active contract was 96,420 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 580,962 lots, a decrease of 160,501 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 526,998 lots, an increase of 19,116 lots [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 5,441 tons, a decrease of 21,340 tons compared to the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton; the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 2,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,150 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,665 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 93,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 91,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 10.65 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic) was 82,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade micron - powder lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic) was 86,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Products**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%, domestic) was 167,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, negative electrode materials, electrolytes, and cobalt - related products also had corresponding changes [1] 3. SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory - On November 28, 2025, the inventory of smelters was 24,324 tons, a decrease of 1,780 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of downstream players was 41,984 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons; the inventory of other sources was 49,660 tons, an increase of 1,780 tons; the total inventory was 115,968 tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons [1] 4. Industry News - On November 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a symposium for power and energy - storage battery manufacturing enterprises to discuss regulating the competition order of the industry and promoting high - quality development. It plans to introduce targeted policies, regulate non - rational competition, strengthen capacity monitoring, and promote scientific capacity layout and overseas expansion of enterprises [1] - Frontier Lithium Inc. announced its interim financial results as of September 30, 2025, with cash and cash equivalents of 14.9 million US dollars. The feasibility study of its PAK lithium project's mine and concentrator was completed on July 9, 2025. The company has initiated a feasibility study on a lithium conversion facility, expected to be completed in the first half of 2027. The project is expected to create 216,300 full - time equivalent jobs and contribute 1.5 billion US dollars to GDP during the 3 - year construction period [1] 5. Market Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, with a decline in the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes and an increase in the production from other sources. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica remained stable [1] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the production plan of lithium iron phosphate increased, while that of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries rebounded last week. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C product shipments weakened, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]