Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with macro - level interest rate cut expectations and short - term support from ore - end news, but there is still pressure on the upside [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic in the weak supply - demand pattern, and the winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral types, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an overall oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [2] - The current factor affecting the ore market is that domestic mines cannot resume production, but the impact on domestic bauxite supply is minimal [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, while the aluminum profile operating rate decreased slightly to 49.5% [2] - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and last Monday. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [2] - The macro - level interest rate cut expectation supports the price, and the ore - end news boosts the short - term aluminum price. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside is still under pressure [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term fluctuations are large, and it is advisable to try to go long on pullbacks [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content International Trade Policy - On August 12, the US and China issued the "Joint Statement of the China - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks". The US promised to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs and relevant non - tariff counter - measures for 90 days starting from August 12 [3] Steel Industry Cost and Profit - On August 12, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,353 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 9 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 39 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 62 yuan/ton [3] Real Estate Market - From August 4 to August 10, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.308 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%, with the decline narrowing [3] Steel Price Trend - The news of Tangshan's production restrictions over the weekend, combined with the continued rise of raw material coking coal, led to the continued volatile upward trend of steel prices. The current industry fundamentals are average, mainly due to weak downstream demand. With the approaching parade, there is still potential for steel price rebound under the macro - level and Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei production restriction expectations [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand conditions [4]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The Sino-US tariff policy has been implemented, and the domestic short - term macro situation has entered a window period. The market is more concerned about the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The black - series as a whole maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. Given the current high blast - furnace profits and the non - off - season characteristics of terminal demand, it is expected that the domestic demand will remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The supply - side pressure is not significant, the supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and the port inventory tends to be stable. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate at a high level [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Supply Foreign ore shipments will gradually enter the seasonal recovery cycle, but the overall month - on - month growth rate is low. After the maintenance period of Australian BHP and FMG mines ended, shipments did not rebound rapidly. Brazilian shipments in this period remained at a moderately high level. Due to the month - on - month decline in shipments in July, the short - term arrivals in August are expected to remain low, and the actual supply - side pressure is not prominent [3]. Demand The daily average molten iron output in China has declined for three consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The current daily average molten iron output is 240.32 (month - on - month - 0.39). The current profitability rate of steel mills is continuously rising, and the blast - furnace profit level is relatively good. The short - flow process has fallen into full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the molten iron output can remain at a high level in the later stage [3]. Inventory The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains relatively high, and the inventory level at steel mills has slightly increased. Due to the weakening of weather influence and concentrated arrivals, the port inventory has increased in this period. As shipments rebound in the future, it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable in the short term [3]. Price The price will fluctuate in a range. The price range of the i2601 contract is 770 yuan/ton - 800 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE09 contract is 102 - 105 US dollars/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity and run weakly, and it will be in a state of shock consolidation [2][4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, with short - term shock operation, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4] 3.2 Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. Fed officials are increasingly worried about the labor market and are open to cutting interest rates as early as September. Cooling inflation may strengthen the bet on an interest - rate cut next month, but if there are signs that Trump's tariffs are driving up prices, the Fed may hold off [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. From late June to July, the shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea decreased, and the total import volume is expected to decline starting from August. The increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [4] - Last week, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The primary aluminum alloy continued to recover, but due to weak terminal demand, high aluminum prices and seasonal factors, enterprises were still cautious in production scheduling. The start - up rate of aluminum cables remained stable at 61.8%, supported by grid order deliveries. The start - up rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 49.5%, with weak demand in construction and industrial profiles. The start - up rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly to 68.4%, and the industry is expected to continue to shrink. The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.1%, and the industry's overall start - up rate is under downward pressure [4] - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were fluctuations in inventory data, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [4] - In the current off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. The expectation of interest - rate cuts provides short - term support for prices. Attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, due to repeated macro - expectations, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the development of news and the off - season situation of downstream industries [11] - For zinc, short - term focus should be on macro - sentiment, while in the medium and long term, supply increase will put pressure on the upper limit, and the zinc price is running high, so attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [14] - For tin, the short - term situation is one of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Colored Weekly Market Review - Copper (CU2509): The closing price of the futures main contract on August 8, 2025, was 78,490, a weekly increase of 90 or 0.11%. The spot price was 78,505, a weekly increase of 180 or 0.23% [8] - Aluminum (AL2509): The closing price of the futures main contract was 20,685, a weekly increase of 175 or 0.85%. The spot price was 20,630, a weekly increase of 140 or 0.68% [8] - Zinc (ZN2509): The closing price of the futures main contract was 22,515, a weekly increase of 195 or 0.87%. The spot price was 22,042, a weekly decrease of 144 or - 0.65% [8] - Tin (SN2509): The closing price of the futures main contract was 267,780, a weekly increase of 2,830 or 1.07%. The spot price was 268,250, a weekly increase of 3,500 or 1.32% [8] - Nickel (NI2509): The closing price of the futures main contract was 121,180, a weekly increase of 1,410 or 1.18%. The spot price was 122,190, a weekly increase of 1,230 or 1.02% [8] 3.2 02 This Week's Colored Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price was high. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut on the macro - level boosted the sentiment and basic metals. Fundamentally, the supply changed little, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly. Affected by the rainy season, the bauxite shipment from Guinea decreased from late June to July, and the import volume is expected to decline starting in August. The domestic bauxite supply has limited increase. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, supported by grid orders, but the industry recovery rhythm was uneven, and the peak - season characteristics were not fully shown. The aluminum foil operating rate decreased slightly to 68.4%, and the industry is expected to continue to shrink. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remained stable at 53.1%, affected by weak off - season demand and high - temperature holidays. As of August 11, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with last Thursday and last Monday. The uneven arrival of goods caused short - term inventory fluctuations, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [10] - Viewpoint: The macro - expectation is volatile. The price is expected to remain high in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the development of news and the off - season situation of downstream industries [11] - Later Attention/Market Risks: Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical crises, the implementation of macro - policies, the situation of supply increase, and the release of consumption [12] Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price fluctuated strongly. The domestic zinc ore processing fee remained stable, and the imported zinc ore processing fee increased. The Shanghai - London ratio fell slightly to around 8.0, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The galvanizing operating rate was 57.35%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points from last week. In terms of raw material inventory, some enterprises replenished stocks at low prices at the beginning of the week, and the replenishment sentiment weakened as the zinc price rebounded. The zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. In August, the domestic situation of oversupply and weak consumption will continue, with clear expectations of loose supply and limited improvement in demand due to the off - season. As of August 11, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 119,200 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons compared with August 4 and 6,000 tons compared with August 7 [13] - Viewpoint: Short - term focus should be on macro - sentiment, while in the medium and long term, supply increase will put pressure on the upper limit, and the zinc price is running high, so attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [14] - Later Attention/Market Risks: Attention should be paid to the implementation of macro - policies, the release of mine production, and the release of consumption [15] Tin - Logic: After the mining license in Wa State, Myanmar, was completed, preparations for resuming production are still underway. The market has high expectations for future tin ore output, and a large output is expected at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. The operating rates in Yunnan and Guangxi increased slightly, but the processing fee remained low. The smelter's inventory was still low, and the shortage of raw materials was alleviated but still existed. The downstream performance was weaker than in the first half of the year, with signs of decline in the automobile and home - appliance industries. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand [16] - Viewpoint: The short - term situation is one of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [16] - Later Attention/Market Risks: Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the trade policies of various countries [16] 3.3 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton from August 1 to August 8, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 570 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20; the average price of imported bauxite index was 74.1 dollars/ton on August 8, an increase of 0.19 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.11. The port - aggregated arrival volume on August 8 was 328,890 tons, a decrease of 136,680 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 92,030 tons; the port - aggregated departure volume was 335,170 tons, a decrease of 176,000 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 10,350 tons [20][23] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged at 3,240 yuan/ton from August 1 to August 8, with a year - on - year decrease of 645; the full cost on August 8 was 2,873.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 15.6; the profit in Shanxi on August 8 was 291.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 670.28 [26] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost on August 8 was 16,738.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.38 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 928.23; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 10 yuan/ton on August 8, a decrease of 10 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 50. The operating rate of aluminum cables on August 7 was 61.8, unchanged from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.2; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 68.4, a decrease of 0.5 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.3; the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips was 64, an increase of 0.8 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 49.5, a decrease of 0.5 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55.6, an increase of 1 from July 31, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.1, unchanged from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.3. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on August 7 was 91,300 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from July 31, with a year - on - year increase of 52,300 tons; the total bonded - area inventory was 111,300 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons from July 31, with a year - on - year increase of 68,100 tons; the social inventory on August 11 was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from August 4, with a year - on - year decrease of 242,000 tons; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas on August 4 was 110,700 tons, an increase of 18,200 tons from July 28, with a year - on - year decrease of 2,900 tons. The SHFE inventory on August 8 was 113,614 tons, a decrease of 3,913 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 177,784 tons; the LME inventory was 470,575 tons, an increase of 7,775 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 440,375 tons. The basis of SMM A00 aluminum for the current month on August 8 was - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 65; the basis for the main contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 130; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 285. The basis of SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan for the current month on August 8 was - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 95; the basis for the main contract was - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 160; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 315. The spread between the current month and the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum on August 8 was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 50; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 215 [28][32][38] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate on August 8 was 17,020 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 36 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 2,714; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 100 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 2,450; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 82.25 dollars/dry ton, an increase of 3.5 from August 1. The enterprise production profit on August 8 was 4,020 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 36 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 1,962; the import profit and loss was - 1,414.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 641.55 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 1,800.84; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang on August 8 was 100,000 physical tons, an increase of 10,000 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 80,000 [55][58] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven regions on August 11 was 119,200 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from August 4, with a year - on - year decrease of 17,900 tons; the bonded - area inventory of zinc ingots on August 7 was 7,000 tons, unchanged from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 1,000 tons; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on August 8 was 65,917 tons, an increase of 4,193 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 21,551 tons; the LME zinc inventory on August 8 was 81,500 tons, a decrease of 19,325 tons from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 160,525 tons [61] - Galvanizing: The output on August 7 was 331,050 tons, a decrease of 7,030 tons from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 16,525 tons; the operating rate was 57.35, an increase of 0.58 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.28; the raw - material inventory on August 7 was 13,570 tons, an increase of 310 from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 435 tons; the finished - product inventory was 352,400 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from July 31, with a year - on - year decrease of 115,800 tons [64] - Zinc Basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot for the current month on August 8 was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 160; the basis for the main contract was - 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 155; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 275. The spread between the current month and the main contract of Shanghai Zinc on August 8 was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 from August 1, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 from August 1, with a year - on - year decrease of 115 [67][68] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on August 8 was 0.289 million tons, an increase of 0.002 from the previous week, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.02; the combined operating rate was 59.64%, an increase of 0.41 from the previous week, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.13 [74] - Tin Ingot Inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory on August 8 was 7,805 tons, an increase of 134 from the previous week, with a year - on - year decrease of 3,017; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China was 10,2

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals and macro - sentiment resonate, and steel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in consolidation. Recently, the prices fluctuate greatly, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips. Pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamental data of coking coal has improved. Although the short - term price fluctuates sharply, the overall trend is strong. Focus on changes in coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production in steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the short term, the demand for alloys is still supported, but the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the impact of inventory is neutral to weak. The price is expected to follow the market trend, and the fluctuation range may increase. With the start of a new round of steel procurement, pay attention to the price guidance. Monitor the evolution of tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From August 1 to August 8, 2025, most futures and spot prices of black products increased. For example, the futures price of coking coal (JM2601) rose 12.31% from 1092.5 to 1227, and the spot price of coking coal (Jiexiu medium - sulfur primary coking coal ex - factory price) rose 4.17% from 1200 to 1250. Only the spot price of ferrosilicon decreased by 0.91% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are average, and the weak demand and rainy season affect the construction, which is difficult to improve in the short term. The macro - sentiment has cooled but still stimulates the market. With the approaching parade, there are occasional news of production restrictions in the north. The short - term market volatility increases, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips before the parade [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last week, coking coal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and coke enterprises started the 6th round of price hikes. In terms of fundamentals, coal production is expected to have limited growth in the short term, and the structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved. The raw material replenishment of coking plants and steel mills has slowed down, and the production of steel mills remains at a relatively high level, but the production restrictions in Tangshan affect the raw material demand [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - sentiment has cooled, and the market is in a policy window period. The terminal demand is in the off - season, but relevant policies support the price. The black metal market is affected by weak fundamentals and supply - side disturbances. The supply and demand pattern of ferroalloys is relatively loose, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The cost of ferromanganese has some support, while the cost of ferrosilicon has no obvious change. It is expected that the price will follow the market trend, and the new round of steel procurement price guidance should be noted [11]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 221.18 million tons, the apparent demand was 210.79 million tons, the social inventory was 388.48 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 10.39 million tons. The long - process output was 190.54 million tons, and the short - process output was 30.64 million tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing showed different trends [13][18][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Last week, the output was 314.89 million tons, the apparent demand was 306.21 million tons, the social inventory was 278.75 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 8.68 million tons. The basis in Shanghai showed an upward trend [25][30]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 907.35 million tons, a decrease of 8.05 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises, 247 steel mills, and 4 ports showed different changes [48]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2486.02 million tons, a decrease of 7.27 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of each part showed different trends [54]. - **Other Data**: The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises was - 16 yuan, the capacity utilization rate was 74%, and the daily coke output was 65.1 million tons. The daily output of clean coal in 523 coking coal mines was 75.5 million tons, and the daily output of hot metal in 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons. The ratios of coke to coking coal futures prices and the basis and spreads of coke and coking coal showed different changes [63][64][67]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased slightly, the price of ferromanganese increased, and the price of ferrosilicon decreased [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore decreased, and the inventory of ferromanganese decreased slightly while the inventory of ferrosilicon increased. The average available days of inventory for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon in July decreased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [81][93][96]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased last week, and the demand for both in five major steel products also increased. The monthly output of manganese ore imports, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon showed different trends [83][87][89]. - **Steel Mill Procurement Prices**: The procurement prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon by Hebei Iron and Steel and other steel mills showed different changes in July [102].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is currently in the off - season with inventory accumulation, and the upward space is limited by the off - season demand pressure. Short - term support comes from the interest rate cut expectation. Focus on macro sentiment, downstream start - up, and the trend of inventory - consumption ratio [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel production enterprises' shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, among 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production since January 5, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price was at a high level. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut on the macro - level boosted the basic metals, while the US imposing tariffs on India and the India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement increased the funds' risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and steadily. The total weekly cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,738 yuan/ton, and the industry still had high profits. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month. The bauxite shipment volume from Guinea decreased from late June to July, and the total imported bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting from August, while the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [3]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different aluminum product sectors have different operating rate trends. For example, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy continued to rise, the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable, the aluminum profile and aluminum foil operating rates decreased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remained stable [3]. - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were phased fluctuations in inventory data. In the off - season, high aluminum prices may further damage consumption, and the inventory will continue to accumulate in the short term [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term fundamental improvements support the coal price to run strongly, but price fluctuations remain severe, and cautious participation is recommended [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Conditions - Last week, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated strongly, with intense long - short games. Coking coal spot prices maintained a strong trend. On Friday, coke enterprises started the 6th round of coke price increase, but mainstream steel mills have not responded [3] - Recently, market news said that from August 16th to 25th, Tangshan independent steel rolling enterprises may be shut down at any time according to weather conditions, and must be shut down from August 25th to September 3rd. If the measures are implemented, the daily output of 35 profile steel enterprises in Tangshan will be affected by about 90,000 tons [3] Supply - side Situation - The verification of coal mine over - production in Shanxi is being promoted in depth. Many coal mines have spontaneously reduced production. Combined with the approaching military parade in September and the severe safety supervision situation, short - term coal mine production increase is limited [4] - The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved. Currently, the raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 4.765 million tons, a decrease of 2.245 million tons from the high in June; the clean coal inventory is 2.457 million tons, a decrease of 2.543 million tons from the high in June [4] Demand - side Situation - This week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills have slowed down. After the available days of coking coal inventory in factories rebounded from a low level, they tended to be stable. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 86,200 tons compared with the same period last year [4] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace startup rate of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a weak and downward trend, with a focus on macro - policies and downstream demand, and is likely to have an oscillatory consolidation operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be high in the short - term, with an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Industry Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the shutdown [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few will shut down after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline oscillatively, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. Xinjiang Zhonghe's 2.4 million - ton alumina project is expected to be completed and put into production in the first half of 2026 [3] - From late June to July, the bauxite shipments from Guinea decreased due to the rainy season. The total bauxite imports from Guinea to China are expected to decline starting in August, and the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [3] - The weekly starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sub - industries have different trends: primary aluminum alloy continues to recover but with cautious production scheduling; aluminum cable starting rate remains stable at 61.8% and is expected to rise slightly in mid - August; aluminum profile starting rate decreased slightly to 49.5%; aluminum foil starting rate decreased slightly to 68.4% and is expected to continue to shrink; the starting rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remains stable at 53.1% but faces downward pressure [3] - As of August 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 564,000 tons, unchanged from Monday and an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday. Current off - season inventory accumulation and demand pressure limit the upward space [3][4]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Report's Core View - Market speculation sentiment has cooled, coal prices are gradually returning to rationality, but short - term fundamental improvement supports coal prices to run strongly with still sharp price fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Coal and Coke Market Situation - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated widely with intense long - short game; coking coal spot remained strong, and coke prices were stable after the fifth round of price increase [2] Supply - side Situation - Shanxi is continuously advancing the in - depth verification of coal mine over - production. Many coal mines have voluntarily reduced production. With the approaching of the September parade, the safety supervision situation is severe, and short - term coal mine production increase is limited [2] - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.883 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi was 1.059 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons compared with the previous week [2] Inventory Situation - The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved. The raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 476,500 tons, a decrease of 224,500 tons from the high point in June; the clean coal inventory is 245,700 tons, a decrease of 254,300 tons from the high point in June [3] Demand - side Situation - This week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills have slowed down. After the low - level rebound of the available days of coking coal inventory in the plants, it has stabilized [3] - This week, the daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons compared with last week and an increase of 86,200 tons compared with last year [3]