Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the macro "boot" landing and the inventory still slightly accumulating [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Key factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3] - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a production halt from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the halt [2] Real Estate - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum ingots was consolidating at a high level yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but analysts have different interpretations of the Fed's signals. The Fed's dot - plot points to a steady easing pace [2] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, the operating total capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, and the weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is high, and the spot procurement is inactive. The demand side shows signs of recovery, with the overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. On September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can appear in late September needs further observation [3]

铁矿石：美联储降息落地 交投重心回归现实 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铁矿石 当前铁矿石供应回升预期不变，华北地区复产带动铁水回升，但从钢厂利润回落至盈亏平 衡线以及螺纹库存高企来看，短期铁矿石需求难以维持在前期高位，铁矿石期现价格难以独立 持续走强，后期仍需终端需求变动以及宏观驱动。 成 材：武秋婷 供应方面：外矿发运环比回升且创出今年来新高，澳洲巴西以及非主流均显著回升。到港 量水平略高于去年同期，随着前期高发运量持续到港，预计供给端压力将逐步体现，整体看， 供给端支撑力度持续减弱。 需求方面：随着华北地区环保限产结束，国内需求回升至前期水平，本期日均铁水产量 240.55（环比+11.71），钢厂盈利率虽然持续回落但仍处于近五年历史同期高位(仅低于 2021 年)，高炉利润高位回落后趋近盈亏平衡水平，短流程处于全面亏损状态，临近十一假期，钢厂 存在集中补库需求且钢厂库存水平偏低，短期补库需求或支撑铁矿石价格。 原材料： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. Due to the poor air quality in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to 30th, but the specific production - limit plan is not clear. The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Market Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year due to concerns about the US labor market. Tangshan requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures from September 15th to 30th, and coking enterprises should extend the coking time by 30%. The production - limit is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is unclear. [2] 2. Supply Side - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production cuts, there is still a small increase in production in the short term. [3] 3. Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills is fast, and the daily average hot metal output last week quickly rebounded to over 2.4 million tons. The current profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. The finished products are in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, and the profit of steel mills has narrowed, which may limit the growth space of hot metal and test the raw material demand in the later stage. [3] 4. Market Outlook - The resumption of production on both the supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke is fast, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [3] 5. Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines. [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The industry investment rating implies that the steel price is in a low - level operation state [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel price is at the bottom and will operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Related Information 1. Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points at the Wednesday's meeting, the first rate cut this year and restarting after 9 months. The latest dot - plot predicts two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, one more than the June forecast [1] 2. Steel Production Data - In August, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.1196 million tons, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease. From January to August, key steel enterprises produced 555 million tons of crude steel, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's rebar output was 1.5412 million tons, a 23.6% year - on - year increase; from January to August, the cumulative output was 12.8678 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year increase [1] 3. Steel Market Performance - Yesterday, rebar first declined and then rose, closing with a doji; hot - rolled coil closed slightly lower. Last week, many steel mills resumed production, and the daily average hot - metal output rebounded rapidly, but downstream demand was relatively average with little change, putting pressure on the market. Recently, the rebound of raw materials has supported steel prices from the cost side [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining end news [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou regions' short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect the total construction steel output by 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started shutting down on January 5, and most of the other steel mills will shut down around mid - January, with some expecting to shut down after January 20, affecting the daily output by about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and with a pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price was in high - level consolidation. After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the US dollar first declined and then rose. Powell's remarks provided support for the US dollar index [2] - The fundamentals of alumina remain in an oversupply pattern, with high domestic operating capacity, an open import window, and high domestic inventory on the supply side. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants' raw material inventory is high, and spot purchasing is negative [3] - The demand side of aluminum has shown signs of recovery. The overall operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises last week increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% week - on - week, and the "Golden September" effect is strengthening [3] - As of September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the出库 performance has improved in September, the premium and discount are still under pressure, and whether the inventory decline inflection point can occur in late September needs further observation [3] Overall for Metals - The macro interest rate cut expectation has been fulfilled as scheduled. As it is transitioning to the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is support from both the macro and fundamentals. However, after the macro "boot" has landed, it is expected that the price will have room for a short - term high - level correction, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The supply of iron ore is steadily increasing, while the demand is falling from its peak under the backdrop of a significant decline in blast furnace profits. The medium - term supply - demand relationship is shifting from slightly tight to balanced, but the pre - holiday restocking demand will support the price in the short term [3]. - The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the focus of market trading is expected to shift to real - world factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The shipment of foreign mines has rebounded month - on - month, reaching a new high this year. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions have all significantly increased. The arrival volume is slightly higher than that of the same period last year. As the high - volume shipments arrive at ports, supply - side pressure is expected to gradually emerge, and the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [3]. Demand - With the end of environmental protection restrictions in North China, domestic demand has returned to previous levels. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.55 (a month - on - month increase of 11.71). Although the steel mill profitability rate has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The blast furnace profit has declined from its high and is approaching the break - even level, while the short - process steelmaking is in a state of full - scale loss. Near the National Day holiday, steel mills have a concentrated restocking demand, and the inventory level is low, so the short - term restocking demand may support the iron ore price [3]. Inventory - The daily consumption at the steel mill end has increased with the resumption of production in multiple regions, and the inventory level has slightly increased but is lower than that of last year. In the middle and late ten - day period, as the pre - holiday restocking phase begins, the steel mill inventory will seasonally increase. Attention should be paid to whether the restocking intensity during the National Day holiday exceeds expectations. The port inventory has continued to increase slightly this period. With the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the port clearance volume has significantly increased, and the pre - holiday restocking in China will drive the inventory level down [3]. Price - The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The reference range is 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 - 108 US dollars/ton in the overseas market [4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is range - bound trading and using covered call options [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and weak operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term, with macro and fundamental factors resonating [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production; Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year [3] For Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, and the dollar is under selling pressure. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on Wednesday [2] - Domestically, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, the industry's start - up rate increased slightly month - on - month, and the aluminum water ratio is expected to rise slightly [3] - The spot price of alumina runs narrowly, the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changes little, and the weekly cost decreases. The demand shows signs of recovery, and the overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week [3] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by 1.2 tons compared with last Thursday and 0.6 tons compared with last Monday. Whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [3]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke is progressing rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of molten iron, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, attention should be paid to the implementation of recent environmental protection and production restriction measures by steel mills. The market is expected to fluctuate [2][3]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - Overseas interest rate cut expectations are strong, and there is a strong atmosphere of "anti - involution" in China. The prices of coking coal and coke futures showed a strong trend yesterday. After the market, there was news of an environmental protection and production restriction plan in Tangshan, causing the night session to open high and close low. Tangshan's steel and coking enterprises have started environmental protection and production restrictions. Steel mills have shut down 40% of their blast furnaces, and coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The current overall operating rate of coking plants in the Tangshan market is around 75%. Steel mills have received the production restriction notice, but the specific implementation plan is still to be discussed [2]. Coal Mine End - After some coal mines reduced prices, sales improved. The market still expects inventory replenishment before the National Day. Last week, coal production gradually recovered. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines was 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Due to the impact of production cuts and improved sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [3]. Demand Side - The resumption of production at steel mills is fast. Last week, the daily average molten iron output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before production restrictions. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of molten iron production, and the demand for raw materials will face a test in the later stage [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The performance of finished products is expected to be weak with a downward - shifting center of gravity, showing an oscillatory and consolidating trend [1][2] - Aluminum ingot prices are expected to be supported by macro - expectations, with short - term price strength. Attention should be paid to inventory consumption during the peak season [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output; Anhui short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, and the market was pessimistic under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Aluminum prices were strong yesterday. Investors are waiting for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts, and Trump called for faster monetary policy easing. China's industrial growth in August supported aluminum demand [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high, with a slight increase in the industry's operating rate. The proportion of molten aluminum is expected to rise slightly [2] - Alumina prices fluctuated narrowly, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changed little. Although the weekly cost decreased, the demand improved, and the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises rose by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [2] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased. The inflection point of inventory reduction in September needs further observation [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly overall yesterday and continued to rise at night due to the strong overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the strong domestic "anti - involution" atmosphere. The spot - end has completed 2 rounds of coke price cuts. The supply and demand sides of coal and coke are in a fast resumption process, especially the rapid recovery of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Coupled with the positive macro signals boosting market sentiment, the market is expected to run with an upward bias [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Logic - Overseas interest - rate cut expectation is strong, and the domestic "anti - involution" atmosphere is thick. The coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly yesterday and continued to rise at night. The mainstream steel mills adjusted the coke purchase price, and the coke price has completed 2 rounds of cuts [3] Coal Mine Situation - The coking coal market remains weak, with transaction prices mainly falling and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, some coal mines have better sales after price cuts, and the market still expects pre - National Day restocking. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 72.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 tons. Due to production cuts and better sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [4] Demand Situation - Steel mills are resuming production rapidly, with the daily average hot metal output last Sunday exceeding expectations and rising to 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons from the previous week, returning to the pre - restriction level. Currently, the steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. The finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the steel mill profits have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of hot metal and test the raw material demand in the later stage [4]