Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in a short - term range, and the market presents a mild recovery trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited price support. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3]. Aluminum - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% compared with last week [3]. - Last week, the overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% week - on - week, showing a mild recovery. In some sub - fields, the start - up rate increased, while the recycled aluminum start - up rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to pick up in late August, and the traditional peak season may further drive demand [3]. - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 20,000 tons compared with last Monday [3]. - Macro - level interest - rate cut expectations support the price. It is expected to run in a range in the near future, and later attention should be paid to the macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term iron ore supply - demand is expected to be balanced and tight, with slow supply growth and strong domestic demand. The short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2]. - The price will fluctuate in a strong range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to the overseas market price of about 101 - 105 US dollars/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Last week, the Sino - US tariff policy was implemented, and the domestic short - term macro entered a window period. The market focused more on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Affected by the weakening terminal demand and the exchange's suppression of coking coal speculation, the iron ore price declined. But high blast - furnace profits and short - process losses at off - peak electricity prices are expected to keep domestic demand at a relatively high level in the short term, and the supply - side recovery pressure is not large, with a phased balance in iron ore supply and demand and stable port inventories [1]. Supply - Overseas ore shipments will gradually enter the seasonal recovery cycle, but the overall month - on - month growth rate is low. After the maintenance of Australian BHP and FMG mines ended, shipments did not recover quickly. Brazilian shipments remained at a moderately high level this period. Due to the decline in shipments in July, the short - term arrivals in August are expected to be low, and the actual supply - side pressure is not prominent [1]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (month - on - month +0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, blast - furnace profits are considerable, and short - process steelmaking is in full - scale loss. Short - term iron ore demand remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports prices. Later, attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has been rising month - on - month and is higher than the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrivals, port inventories have slightly accumulated this period. In the future, with the decline in arrivals and high pig iron production, short - term inventories are expected to remain stable or decline slightly [2].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term range oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [6] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the near future, and then pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [5] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center of gravity [4] Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price was operating at a high level. Macro data kept the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged, and traders were waiting for the result of the "Putin - Trump meeting". The US dollar jumped on Thursday and gave back most of the gains on Friday [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons per year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons per year. The weekly operating rate of alumina increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [4] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a mild recovery trend. In sub - fields, the operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil increased, while that of recycled aluminum decreased slightly [4] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment is still volatile, coal production is stabilizing on the fundamentals, demand remains relatively strong, and coal prices are fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with caution [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - Last week, the exchange tightened the opening restrictions on the coking coal 2601 contract and raised the intraday trading fees to stabilize market sentiment. The coking coal price rose first and then fell, and the subsequent volatility decreased. Over the weekend, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, which is expected to impact the market sentiment. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and the prices declined. Coke completed the 6th round of price increase [3] Fundamentals - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi resumed the production increase rhythm, but some mines in Linfen reduced production due to underground conditions and the implementation of the 276 - working - day policy, resulting in slow overall production increase in Shanxi. It is expected that coal mines will continue the resumption of production this week, but the production increase progress is slow and easily interrupted by emergencies. The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved. Recently, with the rise of coal prices, the downstream procurement rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory at the mine end has stabilized at a low level. In terms of demand, the profitability of coking and steel enterprises is good, and the production enthusiasm is high. The average daily hot metal output of steel mills has slightly increased to 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.89 tons. Attention should be paid to the implementation of environmental protection and production restriction policies around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei during the military parade [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - The exchange tightened trading position limits and increased intraday speculative handling fees, causing significant price fluctuations. It is recommended to mainly observe and participate with caution [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price fluctuated widely and closed down at the end of the session. On the spot side, the transaction of high - priced resources at some mines was weak, and prices declined; mainstream steel mills accepted the 6th round of coke price increase [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a trading limit notice for coking coal futures, restricting the daily opening volume of non - futures company members or customers on different coking coal futures contracts and adjusting the intraday speculative trading handling fee rate for the 01 contract [2] Fundamental Situation - The policy of coal mine over - production verification is advancing, and with the approaching of the September military parade, the safety supervision situation is severe. Short - term coal mine production is mainly stable [3] - The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved, but as coal prices rise, the downstream procurement pace has slowed down. The inventory at the mine end has stabilized at a low level this week [3] - It is expected that coal mines will probably continue the resumption of production next week, but due to multiple factors, the coal mine production increase progress is slow and easily interrupted by emergencies [3] - Steel mill blast furnaces are in good production this week, and the daily average pig iron output remains above 2.4 million tons [3]

Report Overview 1) Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move down with a weak trend, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level. The finished products are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to have short - term range fluctuations [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down. Winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3]. - The view is that the finished products will run in a state of shock and consolidation, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Macro - level: The US data on Thursday triggered market concerns about the inflation and the interest - rate cut process. Traders tend to expect a 25 - basis - point cut next month and another 25 - basis - point cut in October [2]. - Fundamentals: As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20%. The domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%. The total output of aluminum rods in July was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate of aluminum rod manufacturers was only 53.2%, a decrease of 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year [3]. - Inventory: On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [3]. - Outlook: The macro - level interest - rate cut expectation supports the price. The short - term aluminum price is boosted by mine - end news. It is expected to run at a high level in the near future. The 8 - month aluminum rod supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, etc. [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term fluctuations are significant, and it is advisable to try long positions on pullbacks. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]. Group 3: Summary by Content Steel Production and Inventory - According to Steel Union's weekly data, the output of rebar decreased by 0.73 million tons to 2.2045 million tons, the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 0.7 million tons to 3.1559 million tons, and the total output of five major steel products increased by 2.42 million tons to 8.7163 million tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 30.51 million tons to 5.8719 million tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 0.84 million tons to 3.5747 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.61 million tons to 14.1597 million tons [3]. Steel Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.85 million tons to 1.8994 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.54 million tons to 3.1475 million tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.72 million tons to 8.3102 million tons [3]. Production Line Operation in Tangshan - Among the 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan, 31 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 52.54%, a 10.17% increase from last week, and a capacity utilization rate of 48.34%, a 6.82% increase from last week [3]. Steel Price Movement - The decline in raw fuels continues to drive down the price of finished steel. The rapid accumulation of the inventory of five major steel products and the decrease in apparent demand lead to weak performance of steel prices during the day session. The weekly fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils, with a decline of nearly 2%, and the main contract fell below 3200. The weak downstream situation is difficult to improve in the short term. The market is mainly dominated by macro - sentiment in the short term, and the expectation of production restrictions in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei still exists [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner with a downward shift in the price center and weak performance, and the focus should be on macro policies and downstream demand [2][4]. - The aluminum ingot market is in a off - season with a slight accumulation of inventory. The price is expected to be in a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production impact of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will also shut down, affecting daily production by about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [4]. Aluminum and Related Products - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral transfers, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The impact on domestic bauxite supply from non - resumption of domestic mines is currently minimal, and the development of the news should be continuously monitored [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, and it is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [4]. - In July, the total output of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate was 53.2%, a 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year decrease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August [4]. - On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term market still has a strong bullish sentiment, but the exchange has tightened trading opening limits and increased intraday speculative handling fees, causing sharp price fluctuations. It is recommended to mainly observe and participate with caution [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price fluctuated and declined, with the intraday maximum decline of the 01 contract exceeding 7%, and it opened lower at night. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some mines had weak transactions and prices declined. Some regional steel mills accepted the 6th round of coke price increase, but there is an expectation of price reduction under the influence of environmental protection and production restrictions [2] Policy Changes - After the market yesterday, the DCE issued a trading limit notice for coking coal futures. Non - futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum of 1,000 daily opening positions in the coking coal futures JM2601 contract, 500 in the JM2509 contract, and 2,000 in other coking coal futures contracts. In addition, the intraday speculative trading handling fee rate for the 01 contract has been adjusted from 0.01% to 0.02% of the trading volume, which has cooled the coking coal market sentiment [2] Fundamental Situation - The policy of coal mine over - production verification is being promoted, and with the approaching of the September military parade, the safety supervision situation is severe. Short - term coal mine production is mainly stable. The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly relieved, but as coal prices rise, the downstream procurement pace has slowed down, and the mine - end inventory has stabilized at a low level this week. According to Mysteel research, coal mines are likely to continue the resumption of production next week, but due to multiple factors, the coal mine production increase progress is slow and easily interrupted by emergencies. Attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial chain production restriction policies [2] Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace start - up and coal mine resumption of production [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term market bullish sentiment remains strong, the futures market sees increased positions and rising prices with intensified price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price continued to oscillate upward, breaking through the previous high. On the spot side, high - priced resources at some mines had weak sales, and prices declined. The 6th round of coke price increase was blocked, and there was an expectation of price reduction under the influence of environmental protection production - restriction news [2] Production - Restriction News - Regarding the environmental protection production - restriction for the 9.3 parade, the Tangshan production - restriction notice requires independent steel - rolling enterprises to be ready for shutdown from August 16th to 25th according to weather conditions and shut down from the 25th to September 3rd. From August 26th - September 4th, sintering is expected to be restricted by 40% in Tangshan, and blast furnace reduction depends on air quality after the 25th. In the coking industry, it is rumored that Shandong coking enterprises will limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16th, expected to end in early September, but most coking enterprises are currently operating normally [2] Fundamental Situation - The policy of checking over - production in coal mines is advancing, and with the approaching parade in September, the safety supervision situation is severe, so short - term coal mine production is decreasing. The structural inventory pressure of coking coal has been significantly alleviated. Currently, the raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 476.5 million tons, a decrease of 224.5 million tons from the high in June; the clean coal inventory is 245.7 million tons, a decrease of 254.3 million tons from the high in June. On the demand side, the raw material replenishment of coking plants and steel mills has slowed down this week. The average daily hot metal output of steel mills last week was 240.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.62 million tons compared with last year [2]