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建信期货国债日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic fundamentals in China have been weakening since June, with investment accelerating its decline and exports being the main support. However, the export leading indicators in October were significantly weaker, suggesting that the front - loading of exports may have exhausted some future demand. With weak domestic demand, there is still considerable pressure on the fundamentals, and market expectations for monetary easing may rise again [11]. - Currently, the central bank is implementing a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies. The resumption of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. Based on past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited. Overall, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a period of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. If there are market over - adjustments due to short - term disturbances, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares opened lower and closed higher, suppressing the bond market, which fluctuated downward. Most treasury bond futures declined. The yields of major inter - bank spot interest - rate bonds changed slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.789%, down 0.1bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the funding situation was stable and loose. There were 557.7 billion yuan of maturities in the open market, and the central bank injected 65.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan. Additionally, a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase was conducted to offset the maturity of the same - term reverse repurchase. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by 1.16bp to 1.4378%, and the medium - and long - term funding was stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.62% and 1.63% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - The central bank's release of the liquidity injection data for various tools in October showed that the net injection through open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, indicating the resumption of treasury bond trading operations since January this year, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. On November 5, the central bank announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, which was an equivalent renewal considering the 700 - billion - yuan maturity of the same - term variety in the same month. Market institutions generally expect the central bank to conduct another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation in November, and are optimistic about the continued net injection of outright reverse repurchases in that month [13]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" entered its 35th day on November 4, tying the longest "shutdown" record in U.S. history. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear a case on the legality of Trump's tariff policy this Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to restrict rare - earth exports, the U.S. may impose additional tariffs on China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the correct approaches. The China - EU export control dialogue and consultation were held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to maintain communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on November 5, including contract information such as previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. It also mentions the spread between main - contract treasury bond futures across different periods and varieties, as well as the trend of main - contract treasury bond futures [6]. - **Money Market**: Although no specific data content is provided, it is mentioned that the data source is Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [24].
建信期货棉花日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:27
Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated and closed higher. The current 2025/26 annual cotton prices in Xinjiang are mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the inventory pressure is not significant. With the Sino - US trade in a phased easing period, the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,825 yuan per metric ton, down 16 yuan per metric ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang were in the range of 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The trading of pure cotton yarn was lukewarm, with high - count yarns selling better than low - count yarns. The production and sales in the grey fabric spot market were sluggish, with few large orders and difficult access to export orders [7] - **International Market**: The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on November 4. The federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in history, and the USDA data has not been updated [8] - **Market Outlook**: The acquisition of Xinjiang seed cotton is gradually coming to an end, and the short - term driving force is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and some cotton merchants continue to lower the spot sales basis. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is still some resilience in rigid demand, and the inventory of downstream finished products is not high. The Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, a total of 1,018 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 9,218,299 bales, totaling 2.0819 million tons, an increase of 91,600 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 9,133,907 bales, totaling 2.063 million tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 51,656 bales, totaling 11,500 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][17]
建信期货生猪日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:26
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 06 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 据涌益资讯数据显示,截止 10 月 30 日,自繁自养生猪头均利润-34.5 元/头, 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 图1:全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2:样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 ...
建信期货股指日评-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:43
研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 11 月 5 日,万得全 A 缩量上涨,低开后震荡走高,尾盘有所回落,收涨 0.34%, 全市超 3000 支个股上涨;沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 0.19%、 0.26%、0.39%,上证 50 收盘下跌 0.17%,中小盘股表现更优。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望: 外围市场方面,昨日美股市场多重 ...
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:42
行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业硅) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | ...
建信期货MEG日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:41
Group 1: General Information - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) [1] - Research Team Members: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: EG2601 closed at 3,914 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan, with a position of 353,616 lots, a decrease of 3,174 lots; EG2605 closed at 4,005 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, with a position of 33,215 lots, an increase of 2,765 lots. On the 5th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 3,880 yuan/ton, reached a high of 3,928 yuan/ton, a low of 3,874 yuan/ton, and settled at 3,902 yuan/ton, closing at 3,914 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 191,177 lots, and the position was 353,616 lots [7] - Market Outlook: The current supply - demand expectation of ethylene glycol remains weak, but after the recent continuous decline in ethylene glycol prices, the low - level buying has increased. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price may maintain a volatile consolidation [7] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil Market: Manufacturing data weakness and a stronger US dollar have pressured the US - dollar - denominated crude oil futures market. The market is digesting OPEC+'s decision to increase production in December and suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. International oil prices fell after four consecutive days of slight increases. On Tuesday (November 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.56 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.80% from the previous trading day, trading in the range of $59.94 - $61.03 per barrel; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.44 per barrel, down $0.45 or 0.69% from the previous trading day, trading in the range of $63.82 - $64.8 per barrel [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market in Zhangjiagang: The spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang this week was 3,987 - 3,989 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day; next - week's spot negotiation price was 3,985 - 3,989 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for late November was 3,985 - 3,987 yuan/ton. The current - week spot basis was at a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, next - week's spot basis was at a premium of 68 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis for late November was at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton compared to EG2601. Today, ethylene glycol futures rebounded slightly, the spot price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang rebounded slightly, and the basis negotiation weakened slightly. The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang market was 3,960 - 3,990 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The ethylene glycol futures price fluctuated at a low level, the market price in Zhangjiagang fluctuated narrowly, and the intraday negotiation and trading were relatively light [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Charts: Include charts such as MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main - contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]
建信期货沥青日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:41
行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1: 行情回顾(元/吨) | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量(万手) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BU2601 | 3177 | 3166 | 3195 | 3153 | -1.55 | 17.85 | | BU2512 | 3174 | 3164 | 3192 | 3151 | -1.40 | 2.08 | 数据来源:wind,建信期货研究发展部 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-6063 ...
建信期货原油日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:38
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - API data shows a significant 6.52 million - barrel increase in US crude oil inventories, with gasoline and diesel inventories falling. The data is neutral, and overnight oil prices declined slightly [6] - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year, which supports the supply - side but can't change the oversupply situation. The impact is short - term [7] - The market is supported by macro and geopolitical factors, causing oil prices to rebound. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US sanctions on Russia. The market is in a wait - and - see state and may increase purchases of Middle - East crude oil, supporting relevant oil types and SC to strengthen relatively [7] - After the positive factors are digested, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. Operators should maintain a short - selling mindset, try short - selling on rebounds or conduct reverse spreads [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - WTI: Opened at $61.03, closed at $60.43, with a high of $61.03, a low of $59.94, a decline of 1.02%, and a trading volume of 1.936 million lots [6] - Brent: Opened at $64.73, closed at $64.35, with a high of $64.80, a low of $63.82, a decline of 0.83%, and a trading volume of 2.657 million lots [6] - SC: Opened at 460.5 yuan/barrel, closed at 463.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 465.6 yuan/barrel, a low of 459 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.32%, and a trading volume of 818,000 lots [6] Operation Suggestions - Maintain a short - selling mindset, try short - selling on rebounds or conduct reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Energy giant Gunvor is worried about oil market oversupply [8] - US media reported that the Trump administration is considering controlling Venezuelan oil fields [8] - Saudi Aramco CEO expects global oil demand to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2025, and demand growth will remain strong in 2026 [8] - Libyan oil minister said the current production is close to 1.4 million barrels per day, aiming to increase it to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years, 1.6 million barrels per day next year, and 1.8 million barrels per day the year after [8] - HSBC Bank predicts a supply surplus of 2.7 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 (previously 3 million barrels per day), and an average annual supply surplus of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 2.4 million barrels per day) [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][11][18][22]
建信期货PTA日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:38
行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建 ...
建信期货工业硅日报-20251106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:37
工业硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 06 日 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现:工业硅期货价格开盘后震荡走高。Si2601 收盘价 9020 元/吨,跌幅 0.06%,成交量 276196 手,持仓量 232849 手,净减 9304 手。 现货价格:现货价格小幅 ...