Jian Xin Qi Huo

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建信期货铜期货日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:51
研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1:沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2:伦铜走势及价差 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 研究员:彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 沪铜窄幅震荡美联储主席鲍威尔表示,需要在未来的利率决策中平衡通胀担忧与 趋弱的就业市场,美元指数上涨,施压铜价,但日内 A 股大幅上涨,令资金风偏 上升。铜现货价涨 35 至 80045,现货升水持平 55,临近假期下游备货情绪较弱, 升水承压,盘面结构也持续在平水附近,短期高铜价抑制下游节前备货情绪,不 过美联储降息周期下弱美元难改,以及中 ...
碳酸锂期货日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:51
Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The carbonate lithium futures continued a weak and volatile trend. The market sentiment gradually weakened as the expected production cuts on the supply side near the end of the month were not realized. The futures market maintained a contango structure, with futures prices lower than spot prices. The spot price of electric carbon remained stable, while the prices of Australian ore and mica decreased with the downward movement of the futures market. The production losses of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica improved slightly. Although salt plants were currently operating at a loss, it did not affect their production enthusiasm. As the industry's peak demand season was approaching, the pre - National Day stocking by downstream material factories was nearing completion, and the support from the spot market was gradually weakening. Overall, the pressure on the futures market increased due to the continuous high production of carbonate lithium, combined with the approaching end of spot stocking. However, considering the expected increase in new energy vehicle production and sales this year due to the subsidy reduction next year and the unexpected performance of the energy storage sector, the demand for carbonate lithium was expected to increase rapidly, and the downward adjustment space for carbonate lithium was limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 72,000 for the main contract [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The carbonate lithium futures continued a weak and volatile trend. The expected production cuts on the supply side were not realized, and the market sentiment weakened. The futures market was in a contango structure, with futures prices lower than spot prices. The spot price of electric carbon was stable, and the prices of Australian ore and mica decreased. The production losses of salt plants improved slightly, but it did not affect production enthusiasm. The pre - National Day stocking by downstream material factories was nearing completion, and the spot - market support was weakening. The pressure on the futures market increased due to high production and approaching end of stocking, but the downward adjustment space was limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 72,000 for the main contract [9]. 2. Industry News - On September 23, Australian mining company Anson Resources signed a battery - grade carbonate lithium purchase agreement with South Korean LG Energy Solution. LG will purchase up to 4,000 dry metric tons of battery - grade carbonate lithium annually from Anson's project in the Paradox Basin, Utah, USA, starting in 2028, accounting for about 40% of the project's initial annual production capacity of about 10,000 tons. The initial term of the agreement is five years, with a possible five - year extension [12]. - In August 2025, China's lithium spodumene import volume was 619,200 tons, a 17.5% decrease from the previous month. Imports from Australia were 212,000 tons, a 50.5% decrease from the previous month and a 30.7% decrease from the same period last year; from South Africa were 56,000 tons, a 46.8% decrease from the previous month; from Zimbabwe were 118,000 tons, an 83.9% increase from the previous month; from Nigeria were 105,000 tons, a 9.5% decrease from the previous month; and from Mali were 73,000 tons. From January to August, China's lithium spodumene import volume was 4.865 million tons, including 2.445 million tons from Australia, 655,000 tons from South Africa, and 696,000 tons from Zimbabwe. The import volume in July soared and returned to the average level of the previous months in August [12][13].
建信期货油脂日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:33
Report Information - Reported Industry: Fats and Oils [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - East China converted third - grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 250, from October to November it's OI2601 + 260. East China converted first - grade rapeseed oil: In October it's OI2601 + 360, from November to December it's OI2601 + 380. - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: From December to January it's 01+220, from December to February it's 01+240, from January to March it's 01+200, from April to July it's 05+250. - Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes are temporarily stable: 18 - degree is 01+140 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree is 01+120 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse), 28 - degree is 01 - 40 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] Core Viewpoints - The Argentine government temporarily cancelled tariffs on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion. The fats and oils market rebounded after a sharp decline. Argentina may increase soybean exports to China by 2 - 4 million tons after the tax cut, advancing supply. Domestic fats and oils supply is sufficient this year, but there may be a temporary shortage in Q1 next year. - Near - term rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, with concentrated supply. Traders are holding prices, and the basis quote is rising. Monitor China - Canada trade and rapeseed supply. - For the 01 contract, it has both upside pressure and downside support, so expect range - bound trading. For the 05 contract, consider low - buying and rolling long positions. In the long - term, fats and oils are bullish due to biodiesel policies. Monitor China - US negotiations and biofuel policies [8] 2. Industry News - SPPOMA data shows that from September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with FFB yield down 6.57% and OER down 0.25% month - on - month. - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than 40,800 tons in the same period last month. - SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 were 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease from August 1 - 20 [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [11][13][14][21][26][27]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:28
Report Overview - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the October freight rates are further reduced. The spot freight prices show a smooth downward trend in the off - season, with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the freight rate reduction rate can slow down and whether the bottom of the freight rate can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East is expected to support the far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December contracts, and the October contracts are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the October freight rates are further reduced. The spot freight prices of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route and other routes have decreased significantly, showing a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: There may be low - buying opportunities in December contracts, and the October contracts are recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Shipping Market**: From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, the freight rates of ocean routes continued to adjust, and the decline of the comprehensive index expanded. The freight rates of European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all decreased [9]. - **Economic Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 5.2%, showing strong resilience. Germany's September ZEW economic situation index fell to - 76.4 points, and the US September Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 55.4, both lower than market expectations [9][10]. - **Middle East Situation**: The US vetoed the permanent cease - fire resolution in Gaza at the UN Security Council. There are continuous military operations between the Israeli army and Hamas in Gaza, which has a certain impact on the shipping market [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **European Route**: On September 22, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1254.92 points, a decrease of 12.9% compared with September 15th [12]. - **US West Route**: On September 22, 2025, the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1193.64 points, a decrease of 11.6% compared with September 15th [12]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - **Contract Data**: The trading data of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 24th are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][17][22]
建信期货国债日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:26
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Market Data - **Treasury futures trading data on September 24**: All contracts showed price declines with varying degrees of fall and changes in trading volume, open interest, and positions. For example, TL2512 had a closing price of 114.070, a decline of 0.470 and a decrease of 0.41%. [6] Group 3: Market Review and Recommendations - **Market conditions**: Due to the central bank's net withdrawal of funds and insufficient support, the bond market sentiment was weak, and treasury futures fell across the board. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield rose 2.2bp to 1.82%. [8][9] - **Funding market**: The pressure on the money market increased slightly, with a net withdrawal of funds in the open market. There were 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates mostly rose, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable. [10] - **Conclusion**: In August, the national economic activities weakened, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate market expanding again. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is low. The policy may focus on expanding fiscal and credit policies and real estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. However, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may ease. The bond market may still lack a breakthrough, and investors should be patient and wait for better allocation opportunities. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal and cross - quarter funds, and the approaching long holiday may trigger risk - aversion sentiment and stabilize the bond market. [11][12] Group 4: Industry News - The central bank announced that the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, in line with market expectations. Some believe that policy rates and LPR may be cut by the end of the year. [13] - Deputy Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, expressing the hope to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations. [13] - As of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world. The stock and bond markets ranked second, and foreign exchange reserves ranked first for 20 consecutive years. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, financial risks were generally controllable, and policies were optimized to support the real estate market and resolve financing platform debt risks. [14] - On September 22, the National Financial Regulatory Administration established a coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing, with over 7 trillion yuan in loans for "whitelist" projects, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units. [15] Group 5: Data Overview - **Treasury futures**: Including information on the main contract's inter - period spread, inter - variety spread, and price trends [16][17][18] - **Money market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, trends, and inter - bank repurchase rates [31][35] - **Derivatives market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves [37]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:25
Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: September 25, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. Si2511 closed at 9020 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 353,767 lots and an open interest of 270,931 lots, a net decrease of 2,765 lots [4] - Spot prices: Sichuan 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 at 8850 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, Sichuan 421 at 9850 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon supply-demand pressure remains high. The output in the fourth week of September increased to 94,700 tons, and the monthly output is expected to reach 420,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon is optimistically estimated at 145,000 tons, organic silicon at 120,000 tons, and exports and alloy demand at 110,000 tons, with a supply-demand gap of 45,000 tons [4] - The market has no inventory reduction drive. The situation of "weak reality + strong policy expectations" makes funds more sensitive to policy drivers. The stable and rising spot prices have stimulated the recent futures prices to fluctuate strongly, but the risk appetite of pre-holiday funds has decreased, and the market will continue to fluctuate widely [4] Group 3: Market News - On September 24, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,925 lots, a net decrease of 38 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The relevant departments are actively promoting industry self-discipline and capacity governance in key industries. In August, the year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices of industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics narrowed, which is conducive to the return of price operation to a reasonable range [5]
建信期货股指日评-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:18
研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 宏观金融团队 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 9 月 24 日,万得全 A 低开后震荡上行,半导体板块表现强势,午后券商板块 异动带动指数进一步走高,全 A 收涨 1.40%,近 4500 支个股上涨;指数现货方面, 沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.02%、0.68%、1.99%、 1.70%。大盘蓝筹指数期货表现整体弱于现货,中小盘煮熟期货表现整体强于现货, IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.03%、 ...
建信期货沥青日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:04
行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(碳市场工业硅) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:03
行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 每日报告 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业硅) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 | 表1:期货市场行情 | ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:03
行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 农产品研究团队 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究中心 今日全国鸡蛋价格稳定。主产区平均价格 3.65 元/斤,较昨日下跌 0 元/斤; 主销区平均价格 3.87 元/斤,较昨日上涨 0.03 元/斤。11 合约下跌 0.46%。 在经历了 ...