行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 11 月 7 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞各厂三级菜油 01+630，东莞各厂一级菜油 01+730。 华东市场一级豆油基差价格：一豆：1 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current fundamentals of iron ore show an expectation of increased supply and weakening demand due to the profit constraints of downstream steel enterprises, leading to a weak overall fundamental situation and a downward trend in ore prices. The current iron ore futures market lacks a clear main operating logic, and the price fluctuates within the previous trading range. It is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprise profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a historically low level, an arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On November 5, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opening lower and then rising slightly, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [7]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on November 5. For example, the RB2601 contract closed at 3024 yuan/ton, down 1.21%; the I2601 contract closed at 776 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [5]. - The table also shows the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in the black - series futures on November 5. The long - short position difference of the I2601 contract was - 7,262, with a deviation of - 2.06% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 5, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained unchanged from the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.3 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased, and the arrivals have significantly rebounded after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering the cumulative shipments of 109.784 billion tons in the past four weeks, a 3.78% increase compared with the previous four - week period, it is expected that the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level, and the arrivals in November will fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea is expected to be sent in November, which may suppress the prices of far - month iron ore contracts [10][11]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron production has continued to decline and has been below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, with more than half of steel enterprises in a loss state. It is expected that the pig iron production will continue to decline. The production and demand of the five major steel products have recovered, but there is a divergence from the pig iron production data, and the sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed. Considering the cooling weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [11]. - Inventory: Steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has reached 145 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [11]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase compared with the previous period and a 35.9% decrease compared with the same period last year. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease compared with the previous period and an 18.5% decrease compared with the same period last year [12]. - On the afternoon of October 31, President Xi Jinping met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, reaching important consensus and providing strategic guidance for the improvement and development of China - Canada relations. The Chinese side is willing to work with the Canadian side to resume and restart exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade/low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, the shipment volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, main port iron ore trading volumes, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volumes, sample steel mill tax - free pig iron costs, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly production of the five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26][28][29][35][40][45]

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The end - of - year peak season is approaching, market expectations are turning positive, and shipping companies are continuing to raise their quotes for November and December. However, considering the current general demand and the decline of the futures underlying SCFIS index, the price increase may not be fully implemented. Nevertheless, the trend of bottoming out and rebounding is likely to form, and the bottom of freight rates within the year may have appeared. The conflict in the Middle East is frequent and complex, and the Red Sea is expected to remain difficult to resume shipping in the short term. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: With the arrival of the year - end peak season, shipping companies are raising 11 and 12 - month quotes. For example, Maersk's large - container quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the first and second weeks of November are $2380 and $2210 respectively. Mainstream shipping companies' quotes in November range from $2535 - $3000, CMA CGM's November quote is between $2520 - $3546 and further rises to $3752 - $4008 in December. But demand is general and the SCFIS index has declined, so the price increase may not fully materialize [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [8]. 2. Industry News - **China's Export Container Transport Market**: From October 27 to 31, the market was favorable, transport demand was stable, and most route freight rates rose, driving the comprehensive index up. On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1550.70 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: In October, the eurozone's composite PMI rose to 52.2, the highest since May 2024. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes. On October 31, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $1983/TEU, up 12.4% [9]. 3. Data Overview - **Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping** - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from October 27; SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) was 1267.15 points, up 14.4% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market** - Provided the trading data of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on November 5, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Coke and coking coal futures have declined due to the accelerated steel production cuts, but the spot market still has strong support. The market may be volatile and bullish after a period of correction and consolidation. Attention should be paid to the resilience of the spot market, the lag effect of the transfer from steel profits to raw material costs, and whether subsequent steel production data confirms the expectation of accelerated production cuts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On November 5th, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures turned to volatile recovery after 4 consecutive trading days of volatile decline. The closing prices of J2601 and JM2601 were 1753 yuan/ton and 1268.5 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.03% and 0.47%. The trading volumes were 19,107 lots and 807,948 lots respectively, and the positions decreased by 391 lots and 737 lots respectively. The capital inflows were 0.05 billion yuan and 1.09 billion yuan respectively [5]. - In the black - series futures on November 5th, the long - short deviation degrees of RB2601, HC2601, SS2512, J2601, JM2601, and I2601 were - 2.68%, 0.37%, - 1.65%, 1.90%, 3.17%, and - 2.06% respectively [6]. - On November 5th, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1750 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1615 yuan/ton, with no change; in Linfen, it was 1600 yuan/ton, with no change; in Handan, it was 1580 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 5th, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract continued to decline. The daily MACD red column of the coke 2601 contract narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days and was close to a dead cross; the daily MACD red column of the coking coal 2601 contract narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days [7]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Recently, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined, and the coke inventories of ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to the successful third - round price increase of coke spot. The coal prices have generally risen due to the low - temperature weather in most parts of the north and the stricter coal mine safety production inspections. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level. Although coking coal imports have recovered, the year - on - year decline from January to September is still more than 6%, and the coking coal spot price has significantly increased [9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of now, Shanxi Province has fully completed the shutdown and elimination of 4.3 - meter coke ovens, with a cumulative shutdown and elimination of over 90 million tons of 4.3 - meter coke oven capacity and a cumulative reduction of 44.24 million tons of excess coking capacity [10]. - In the first 10 months of this year, the total issuance of local government bonds nationwide was approximately 9.1062 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 23%. The issuance of local government bonds accelerated significantly this year, mainly concentrated in the first half. Since July, the monthly issuance scale has declined month by month, and the issuance in October was about 560 billion yuan [10]. - On November 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [10]. - Since November 10, 2025, the additional tariffs on some imported goods originating from the United States have been suspended. The additional 15% tariff on imported coking coal from the United States has been suspended, but the 3% import tariff and 10% additional tariff remain, bringing the current tariff on imported coking coal from the United States to 13%. As of September, China imported 2.9088 million tons of coking coal from the United States [10]. - Hengyuan Coal & Electricity plans to acquire 100% of the equity of Hongneng Coal Industry and Changsheng Energy held by Shaanxi Black Cat with its own funds of 439.86 million yuan and assume the creditor's rights of 1.137 billion yuan to the target companies. The acquisition may increase the company's resource reserves [10][11]. - Kailuan Co., Ltd. stated that its main business includes coal mining, raw coal washing and processing, coal product sales, coking, and the production and sales of coal - chemical products. In the reporting period, the operating cost rate increased by 15.27% compared with the second quarter. The profit in the third quarter decreased compared with the second quarter due to factors such as changes in coal mine geological conditions and the squeeze on profit margins in the coal - chemical business [11]. - In September, Indonesia's coke exports continued to recover, with both year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates exceeding 10%. In September, Indonesia's coke exports were 657,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.62% and a month - on - month increase of 17.53% [11]. - Many Wall Street analysts believe that due to the high financing costs, the current liquidity shortage in the US money market may last until November, which may force the Federal Reserve to take emergency measures to enhance liquidity before officially stopping the balance - sheet reduction on December 1 [11]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the summary price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the production and capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke, the national daily average hot - metal output, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operation rate of sample mines, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal in sample mines, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the January contract, and the basis of Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the January contract, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][17][18][24][26][27].

行业 铜期货日报 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜探底回升，日内沪铜主力最低跌至 84900，总持仓下降 4052，美元指数在 100 上方运行施压铜价，同时隔夜海外股市大跌进一步加大市场抛售情绪，铜价回到 10 月中旬震荡区间。日内现货跌 1255 至 85335，现货升水涨 25，下游短期集中 补库。现货进口亏损缩窄至 520 附近，LME0-3contango 结构扩大至 30.4 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Carbonate lithium futures stopped falling and rebounded, with a total position increase of 849 lots, but funds have not returned. Spot prices are more resistant to decline than futures. The overall decline in the industrial chain price is small, and the electrolyte continues to rise against the trend, indicating tight supply - demand in this field. In the short term, futures prices will move closer to spot prices. The speculation on the mining end is unlikely to materialize in the short term. Due to the supply inflection point and continuous inventory reduction, the spot is firm, and it is difficult for futures prices to break through the lower limit. Futures prices are expected to rebound [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures stopped falling and rebounded, with a total position increase of 849 lots. The spot price dropped by 400 to 80,500, showing resistance to decline compared to futures. Australian ore dropped by 20, mica ore dropped by 30, ternary materials remained flat, lithium iron phosphate dropped by 90 - 100, and the electrolyte rose by 600 - 1250. The overall decline in the industrial chain price is small, and the electrolyte continues to rise against the trend, indicating tight supply - demand. Futures prices are expected to rebound due to the weak follow - up decline of the spot and the firm spot under the influence of supply and inventory factors [9] 2. Industry News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 43,000 tons of carbonate lithium in 2025, and a 40,000 - ton lithium salt project was officially put into operation at the end of September, laying a foundation for further capacity expansion [12] - Hainan Mining revealed that the CIF cost of 5.5% grade lithium concentrate from its Buguni lithium mine transported to Hainan is about $750/ton. Its lithium hydroxide products are undergoing certification and sample testing with domestic and foreign customers, and relevant government approvals are in progress. The company also announced a technical renovation plan to add carbonization and potassium removal facilities at the back - end of the existing 20,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line. After the renovation, which takes about half a year, it can flexibly convert part of the capacity to produce battery - grade carbonate lithium, achieving a product combination of "20,000 tons of lithium hydroxide" or "10,000 tons of lithium hydroxide + 8,000 tons of carbonate lithium" to respond to market changes and improve profitability [12]

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Shanghai Zinc main contract 2512 closed at 22,650 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.15%, with reduced volume and positions. The supply of domestic zinc ore is decreasing, and the zinc ore TC is expected to weaken. The import zinc ore processing fee has also peaked and declined, and the import of zinc ore is still at a loss. The production of zinc ingots may be restricted by the decline of domestic zinc ore processing fees and the tightening of raw material supply. The 0 - 3 Back structure is 138.78, and the LME zinc inventory is flat at 33,825 tons. The tight supply pattern and the overall optimistic macro - environment strongly support the LME zinc price. Overall, the supply - demand pattern has improved marginally, and the focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the ore - tight logic, which supports the zinc price. The Shanghai Zinc has rebounded weakly at a low level, and the upper track of the short - term Bollinger Band forms a suppression [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - For SHFE Zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,585 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,630 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,470 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 0.26%, with a position of 7,745 lots and a decrease of 840 lots. - For SHFE Zinc 2512 (the main contract), the opening price was 22,605 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,650 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,685 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,505 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 112,477 lots and a decrease of 4,446 lots. - For SHFE Zinc 2601, the opening price was 22,680 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,690 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,720 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,540 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 71,495 lots and an increase of 1,162 lots [7]. - **Supply and Price Analysis**: Domestic northern mines are seasonally reducing production, and some mines are actively controlling production after completing their annual plans. The domestic zinc ore supply is decreasing, and the zinc ore TC is expected to weaken. The import zinc ore processing fee has also declined. Although the internal - external ratio has recovered from a low level, the import of zinc ore is still at a loss, and the price advantage of domestic ore is prominent. With the decline of domestic zinc ore processing fees and the tightening of raw material supply, zinc ingot production may be restricted [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **0 Zinc Transactions on November 5, 2025**: - The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 22,505 - 22,640 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was 22,565 - 22,670 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was 22,435 - 22,570 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, Baiyin was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 22,515 - 22,610 yuan/ton. The conventional brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a premium of 60 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Anning was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,410 - 22,590 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was 22,600 - 22,700 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,390 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 23,400 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Zijin was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,390 - 22,535 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the first period, the holders of Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxing were quoted at a discount of 115 - 75 yuan/ton, and in the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing were quoted at a discount of 115 - 85 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, but no specific data analysis is given [11][12].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For soda ash, the supply remains high, the开工 rate declines slightly, and inventory decreases marginally. The downstream market mainly replenishes inventory at low prices, and the glass market continues to face weak supply and demand. With the arrival of winter, there is insufficient driving force in the supply - demand aspect, and the pattern of oversupply may continue. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - For glass, although the production limit in Shahe has been implemented, the actual situation is below expectations. Coupled with the arrival of the off - season, there is no new driving force in the market. The short - term bullish sentiment from the Shahe production halt has been digested. The price will mainly fluctuate in the near term, and if there is no new macro - level positive news, the downward trend is difficult to reverse [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On November 5, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 fluctuated strongly. The closing price was 1,195 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08%, with a daily reduction of 36,997 lots [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The enterprise production and sales tend to balance, and inventory fluctuates little. The weekly production increased by 17,000 tons to 757,600 tons, remaining at a high level. The soda ash plant maintenance is at a high level in the same period. In late October, the shipments of Chinese soda ash enterprises continued to recover, with a total shipment of 757,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.53%. The production of float glass remained stable, but four coal - fired production lines in Shahe are planned to be shut down for cold repair, and the production of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. The alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 1.702 million tons, at a relatively low level in the past six months [8]. Glass - **Market Data**: The four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will be shut down in the short term. The photovoltaic glass market is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level for the year. After the holiday, the factory inventory remains high, and the inventory days have continued to rise. The real estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, the completion data is weak, and the recovery of float glass demand may not be sustainable [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [11][12][15]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 6, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 2. Market Review and Trading Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5,441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 0.86%, with an open interest of 367,492 contracts, a decrease of 1,330 contracts - SR605 closed at 5,393 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 0.75%, with an open interest of 107,964 contracts, an increase of 5,015 contracts - US Sugar 03 closed at 14.21 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents or 3.00%, with an open interest of 478,904 contracts, an increase of 3,720 contracts - US Sugar 05 closed at 13.82 cents/pound, down 0.41 cents or 2.88%, with an open interest of 166,382 contracts, an increase of 1,289 contracts [7] Market Analysis - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures fell sharply. The ICE London white sugar futures' December contract rose 1.8% to $423.30/ton. Overseas financial markets were volatile overnight. The US Senate failed to pass the government's temporary appropriation bill again, leading to a government shutdown, which cast a shadow over the economic outlook. The US dollar index strengthened, and US stocks and commodities generally declined, dragging down raw sugar - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 0.86%, with a decrease of 1,330 contracts in positions. Domestic spot sugar prices in production areas declined. Nanning sugar was quoted at 5,730 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar was quoted at 5,580 yuan/ton. The domestic market fundamentals were stable. Zhengzhou sugar followed the decline of raw sugar, indicating that it was difficult to break through the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level. From a capital perspective, speculative short - sellers significantly increased their positions [7][8] 3. Industry News Brazil - Conab reported that from 2024 to the first half of 2025, adverse climate conditions such as water shortages, unstable rainfall, and high temperatures in the sugarcane - growing season in central - southern Brazil affected the 2025/26 sugarcane production - In 2025/26, Brazil's sugarcane planting area is expected to be 8.97 million hectares, a 2.4% increase from 2024/25. However, the average yield per hectare is expected to be 74.26 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. The increase in planting area cannot offset the loss caused by the decline in yield per hectare - The estimated sugarcane production in the current season is 666.4 million tons, a 1.6% decrease from 2024/25 and a 0.4% decrease from the previous forecast of 668.8 million tons. Despite the decrease in sugarcane supply, Conab still expects sugar production to be 45 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase, which would be the second - highest in history after the 2023/24 season's 45.68 million tons - The total production of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol and corn ethanol in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 36.2 billion liters, a 2.8% year - on - year decrease. The decrease is mainly due to a 9.5% reduction in sugarcane ethanol production (expected to drop to 26.55 billion liters), while corn ethanol production is expected to increase by 22.6% to 9.61 billion liters. Among the total, anhydrous ethanol is expected to be 13.58 billion liters, and hydrous ethanol is expected to be 22.16 billion liters [9] India - On November 4, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the first sugar production forecast for the 2025 - 26 season. The total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) is expected to be 34.35 million tons. After deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to reach 30.95 million tons [10] 4. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract [11][13][14][23]