行业 鸡蛋 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 日期 2026 年 2 月 9 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts**: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2988, the opening price was 2998, the highest price was 3016, the lowest price was 2983, the closing price was 2997, with an increase of 9 and a rise - fall rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 41,502, and the open interest was 205,351, a decrease of 18,122. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2730, the opening price was 2737, the highest price was 2748, the lowest price was 2729, the closing price was 2735, with an increase of 5 and a rise - fall rate of 0.18%. The trading volume was 637,898, and the open interest was 2,156,556, a decrease of 55,549. For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2696, the opening price was 2700, the highest price was 2710, the lowest price was 2698, the closing price was 2702, with an increase of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 42,403, and the open interest was 497,245, a decrease of 11,081 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1100 cents. The rebound was due to news that after the call between Chinese and US leaders, Trump praised the good relationship with China on social media and revealed that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. However, due to Trump's inconsistent statements, the market priced it cautiously and awaited verification from weekly export data [6] - **South American Market**: In Brazil, the soybean production is set, and the harvest is accelerating. In the next month, large - scale harvesting is expected, which may put pressure on FOB quotes. In Argentina, the early weather was dry, but the latest forecast shows normal rainfall and cool climate in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for yield recovery [6] Operational Suggestions - Given the volatile weather in Argentina and international trade policies during holidays, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions next week [6] Group 3: Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued a proposed 45Z rule on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuel). However, some issues remain unanswered, such as the composition of the revised climate model that may affect fuel eligibility and the implementation of the foreign raw material ban [7] Group 4: Data Overview - **USDA Pressing Data**: In December, the US soybean pressing volume reached 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024. It was the second - highest monthly pressing volume, second only to October 2025 [14] - **Crop Expert Forecast**: The expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has become drier recently, with insufficient rainfall in the coming weeks. The expected soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season remains at a record 179 million tons and may be maintained or increased in the future [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Next week, domestic downstream industries will gradually enter the holiday period, global high - inventory pressure is evident, and macro - level disturbances still exist. It is expected that the high - volatility situation of copper prices will continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The continuous decline in total futures positions will weaken the impact of the capital side, while the strengthening of the fundamental support may lead to the stop of the decline in futures prices before the Spring Festival [24]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the fundamental changes in aluminum prices are relatively limited. High prices and the long - holiday factor lead to insufficient support on the demand side. Aluminum prices continue to be driven by macro and capital sentiment. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to macro - level pricing and the fulfillment of post - holiday demand expectations [41]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price's operating center may gradually rise under the stimulation of global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances. In the short term, affected by macro - level sentiment and the long - holiday factor, the nickel price has fallen from a high level for adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday, and pay close attention to Indonesian policy statements and quota implementation [71]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (97,920, 105,810), with a total position of 584,000 lots, a decrease of 11.2% from last week. The spot market changed from a discount to a premium of 40. LME copper operated in the range of (12,414.5, 13,526). Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has declined recently. It is recommended to wait and see due to supply pressure, weakening downstream demand during the holiday, high inventory, and macro - level disturbances [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The import TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, but the supply of scrap copper is abundant, and domestic refined copper production remains at a high level. The import window for refined copper is closed, and the import loss has narrowed [7][10][12]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly operating rates of scrap copper rods, refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire have different changes. With the approach of the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the holiday, and the demand is expected to weaken [13][14][15]. - **Spot Side**: Domestic inventories have increased by 1.05 to 405,200 tons, and LME + COMEX inventories have increased by 13,497 tons to 713,000 tons [16][18]. Lithium Carbonate 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the lithium carbonate futures price continued to decline weakly, with the main contract operating in the range of (124,100, 152,820), and the total position decreased by 11.9% to 637,000 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate also declined. It is expected that the supply - side pressure will ease, and the demand will recover, so the futures price may stop falling before the Spring Festival [23][24]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.8% to 20,744 tons, and it is expected to continue to decline. The import loss of lithium carbonate has turned negative and continued to expand [24][27]. - **Demand Side**: The production of cathode materials has decreased, but the production of power cells has increased. The demand for energy storage is still strong, and the production of cathode materials is expected to recover [24]. - **Spot Side**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the spot - futures spread fluctuates greatly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons [31]. Aluminum 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the aluminum price fluctuated downward. The main reason was the changes in the macro - market and capital sentiment. The import window is closed, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to macro - level and post - holiday demand [37][41]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: The supply of domestic and overseas bauxite is abundant, and the ore price is weak. Some domestic alumina plants plan to change to imported ore production lines, and the price of imported ore has declined [42][43]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina is under pressure, and the industry's operating rate has increased. The overseas price is higher than the domestic index price [45][46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The cost of the industry has increased, and the profit has decreased. The import window is closed, and the net import in December 2025 has increased. The downstream operating rate has declined, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [53][56][63]. Nickel 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the nickel price fell from a high level, mainly affected by the macro - market and capital sentiment. The import window is closed. The price of nickel ore has risen, and the price of nickel salt has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and pay attention to Indonesian policies [68][70][71]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores have increased significantly. The import volume of nickel ore in December 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [72]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: The production of nickel iron in Indonesia and China has decreased. The import volume of nickel iron in December 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [80][83]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel has been rapidly released. The production of electrolytic nickel in January increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The import and export volumes of refined nickel in December 2025 have changed [85][86]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The price of nickel salt has continued to fall. The production of nickel sulfate in January decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to decline slightly in February [89][92]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has continued to increase. The market transaction is light during the Spring Festival, and the terminal procurement has basically ended [94].

1. Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Investment Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Unilateral Strategies - RB2605: Price at 3077, expected to be volatile and weak. Influenced by factors such as a decline in the weekly output of five major steel products, significant increase in factory and social inventories, large drop in weekly demand, slow resumption of steel production, pressure on steel raw fuel prices, and a decline in steel costs [6]. - HC2605: Price at 3251, expected to be weak. The gap in imported ore arrivals may appear in the next few weeks, and the Indonesian coal export policy is affecting the market. Wait for the pre - Spring Festival negative factors to be realized [6]. - J2605: Price at 1698.5, relatively resistant to decline. Affected by the Indonesian government's production quota reduction policy, the loss of coking enterprises has narrowed significantly, and there is support from the expected tightening of imported coal supply [6]. - JM2605: Price at 1138.5, relatively resistant to decline. Affected by the Indonesian government's policy, the recent Mongolian coal customs clearance has fluctuated, and there is support from the expected tightening of imported coal supply [6]. - I2605: Price at 760.5, expected to be weak first and then strong. Australian and Brazilian shipments have recovered while arrivals have declined. The output of five major steel products has turned down, and demand has decreased. Steel mills' pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end [6]. 2.2 Spread Strategies - For cross - period and cross - variety spreads such as RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM, no clear trading directions are given [6]. 3. Core Views - Steel: The price has limited room for continuous decline, but the short - term weakness is difficult to reverse. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, black commodity futures may turn from weak to strong [8][32]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Supported by the expected tightening of imported coal supply, they may remain relatively resistant to decline. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, coke and coking coal futures may enter a new upward cycle [10][54]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be weak first and then strong. High port inventories and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space. One can consider buying hedging or investment strategies at the lower end of the shock range [12][85]. 4. Industry Analysis by Category 4.1 Steel 4.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of February 6, the price of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined [13]. - Production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased, while the average daily output of key large and medium - sized enterprises' crude steel decreased. The average daily iron - water output increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnace steel mills decreased significantly [14][17]. - Inventory: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [17][22]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed a narrowing loss [27]. - Profit: The loss of long - process steel mills' rebar spot tonnage profit narrowed, while that of short - process steel mills continued to fall [31]. 4.1.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The price has limited room for continuous decline, but the short - term weakness is difficult to reverse. Wait for the pre - Spring Festival negative factors to be realized [31][32]. - Basis: The rebar basis is expected to fluctuate between 100 - 170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate between - 30 - 30 yuan/ton [35][36]. 4.2 Coke and Coking Coal 4.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of February 6, the price of major coke spot markets remained stable, and some coking coal markets declined [38]. - Production: The daily output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke production increased [38]. - Inventory: Coke inventories in ports, steel enterprises, and coking plants all increased, and the loss of independent coking enterprises narrowed [41]. - Import and Inventory of Coking Coal: In 2025, the import of coking coal decreased. The port coking coal inventory decreased, while that of coking plants and steel enterprises increased [46]. - Production of Raw Coal and Coke: In 2025, the production of raw coal and coke increased [51]. 4.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and Coking Coal: Supported by the expected tightening of imported coal supply, they may remain relatively resistant to decline. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, they may enter a new upward cycle [53][54]. 4.3 Iron Ore 4.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port declined. The spreads of some high - grade and low - grade ores changed [55]. - Inventory and Shipping: 45 - port iron ore inventory increased, and the daily shipping volume increased. Steel mills' import ore inventory days increased [61]. - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments showed different trends, and the overall shipment volume decreased. The arrival volume is expected to show a trend of low first and high later [69][70]. - Domestic Production: In 2025, domestic iron ore production decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of mines decreased. The production before the Spring Festival is expected to weaken [70]. - Transaction Volume and Cost: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume increased, and the average iron - water cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [73]. - Iron - Water Output and Related Indicators: The average daily iron - water output increased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate increased [75]. - Steel Production and Inventory: The actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased, the consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [78]. - Transportation Cost: The main iron ore freight prices and related freight indices decreased [80]. 4.3.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be weak first and then strong. High port inventories and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space. One can consider buying hedging or investment strategies at the lower end of the shock range [85]. - Basis: The basis between the spot price of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the main futures contract is expected to fluctuate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [86].

行业 金融期货周报 日期 2026 年 2 月 6 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ |  股指 - 3 | - | | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、市场回顾 - 3 | - | | | 二、成交持仓分析 - 5 | - | | | 三、基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - 5 | - | | | 四、行业板块概况 - 8 | - | | | 五、估值比较 - 9 | - | | |  国债 - 10 | - | | | 一、本周市场回顾 - 10 | - | | | 二、市场分析 - 19 | - | | | 三、下周公开市场到期 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with geopolitical situation as the main driver. In the medium - and long - term, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, leading to inventory accumulation [7][8][12]. - **Polyester**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term. Demand for polyester may decline further before the Spring Festival but is expected to improve after the holiday [30][32][37]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by the weakening downstream procurement and the overall market. [44][45] - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the soda ash market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds, and pay close attention to supply - demand changes and policy trends [92]. 4. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined last week. The WTI main contract fell 3.35% to $63.54/barrel, Brent fell 3.05% to $67.7/barrel, and SC fell 1.98% to 461.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term focus on the US - Iran situation, and expect oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to whether US military actions have a substantial impact on production and transportation facilities [8]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are full of uncertainties. Iran is important in the crude oil market, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may affect oil prices. The US - India agreement on Russian oil imports is also uncertain [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil production decreased last week, and refinery operating rates declined slightly. EIA and IEA are both pessimistic about the oil market in 2026, expecting supply to grow faster than demand and inventory to accumulate [11][12]. Polyester 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: PTA prices fell last week due to increased inventory and weak downstream demand. Ethylene glycol prices also declined due to weakening cost support and seasonal demand decline [30]. - **Operation Suggestions**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term [32]. 4.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: Polyester operating rates are expected to decline further, and the demand for PTA and ethylene glycol is likely to weaken before the Spring Festival but may improve after the holiday [33]. - **PTA**: PTA supply may slightly decrease, but the overall supply - demand situation remains unchanged. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [34][35]. - **MEG**: The开工 rate of the ethylene glycol industry increased slightly last week, and the inventory at major ports in East China increased. The short - term supply - demand structure is still weak [36][37]. Paper Pulp 4.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5,254 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week - on - week. Spot prices of various wood pulps also declined [44]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by downstream procurement and market sentiment [45]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Pulp Shipment Volume**: In November, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased, while that of broad - leaf pulp increased [46]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In December, China's pulp import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [53]. - **Pulp Inventory**: As of the end of November, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous and broad - leaf pulp increased. As of the end of January, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [59]. Soda Ash 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The main contract of soda ash (SA605) fluctuated widely last week, with the price center moving down. Production decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory increased [85]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not easily go long. In the short term, the market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [92]. 4.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash industry decreased slightly last week, and the weekly production decreased. New production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure remains high [93][94]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 5, the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased, indicating an imbalance between supply and demand [103][104]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic soda ash spot market was weak and volatile, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton next week [106][108]. - **Downstream**: The float glass industry is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand and increasing inventory, which has a negative impact on soda ash demand. The photovoltaic glass market is in a "weak - stable" state, and the long - term overcapacity problem remains [109][110][112]. - **Summary**: The soda ash market is facing a structural imbalance. The key to solving the problem lies in expanding exports and accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity [113].

1. Reported Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural product industry, dated February 6, 2026 [1] 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal market is weaker than the overseas market this week. The 05 contract is priced by imported Brazilian soybeans, and the pressure of its bumper harvest is approaching. The domestic market has limited bullish factors, and the rebound is weak. It is recommended to gradually reduce positions for the Spring Festival holiday [9] 2.2. Eggs - This week, egg spot prices have reached a peak and fallen. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot prices are in a seasonal decline. Futures prices are also weak. In the long - term, it is still a game about the degree of inventory reduction. It is recommended to roll and go long at low levels for far - month contracts [48] 2.3. Sugar - The raw sugar index fluctuates around the 14 - cent mark. Technically, the 10 - day and 10 - week moving averages suppress price rebounds. In the domestic market, the Zhengzhou sugar index first falls and then rises, with the 60 - day moving average and the weekly Bollinger middle - band suppressing prices. The market is currently treated as oscillating weakly [68][69] 2.4. Cotton - The overseas cotton market maintains a weak pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates and adjusts. The USDA monthly report is relatively bullish. The domestic market should pay attention to the planting intentions for the 2026/27 season and the actual reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area after the festival [90] 2.5. Corn - The spot price of corn is narrowly weak. The supply may increase in the first half of February and decrease in the second half due to the holiday. Demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is expected to pick up after the festival. The overall supply - demand relationship may be tight, and the price is expected to be strong [156] 2.6. Hogs - The spot price of hogs continues to fall this week. In the long - term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase slightly. Before the festival, both supply and demand will increase, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [202] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices of coastal soybean meal are slightly weaker than a week ago. Overseas futures of US soybeans are strong this week, mainly due to the news of potential additional Chinese purchases. The domestic market is weaker, and it is recommended to reduce positions for the festival [7][8][9] 3.1.2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The 2025/26 USDA report shows that US soybean production and end - of - season inventory increase, and the supply - demand relationship turns looser. In South America, Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and Argentina's weather is expected to improve. The report is generally bearish [11] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of January 29, the weekly shipment volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season increases year - on - year, but the net sales volume decreases. Future purchases by China need to be monitored [15] - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Pressing**: Pressing profits are mostly negative. The actual pressing volume and operating rate increase slightly this week but are expected to decline in the near future. The import volume of soybeans shows seasonal changes, and the port inventory will gradually decline [27][29] - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increases this week. Transactions are active in January due to pre - festival stocking and concerns about future supply [36] - **Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The 05 - contract basis of soybean meal narrows slightly, and the 3 - 5 spread also narrows. Both are expected to oscillate in the short term [40][41] - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 5, 2026, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts is at a relatively high level in the same period of history [43] 3.2. Eggs 3.2.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Egg spot prices fall rapidly this week. Futures prices are also weak. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to the degree of inventory reduction, and it is recommended to go long at low levels for far - month contracts [48] 3.2.2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period of history, and the replenishment momentum slows down, which may reduce the medium - term inventory pressure [49] - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: Egg spot prices fall, feed costs remain stable, and breeding profits decline [56] - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume is stable with a slight decline, the culling age is slightly delayed, and the price is at a relatively low level in the same period of history [58] - **Demand, Inventory, and Hog Prices**: Egg sales are at a relatively high level in the same period of history, inventory is at a moderately high level, and hog prices are at a relatively low level in the same period of history [63] 3.3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The raw sugar index fluctuates around 14 cents, and the Zhengzhou sugar index first falls and then rises, with technical resistance [68][69] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong change little. The basis narrows, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthens [71][75] - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In the second half of December 2025, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreases year - on - year, and the ethanol production increases [77] - **Import Profit and Exchange Rate**: The import processing profit of raw sugar increases slightly. The Brazilian real and Thai baht depreciate against the US dollar [83][85] 3.4. Cotton 3.4.1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Overseas cotton markets are weak, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The USDA report is bullish, and domestic policies emphasize the stability of the cotton industry. The market is affected by macro - factors and is expected to oscillate narrowly before the festival [88][90] 3.4.2. Core Points - **Main Cotton - producing Countries**: The USDA January report shows that the global cotton supply - demand relationship improves slightly, with a decrease in ending inventory and a decline in the inventory - to - sales ratio [91] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of January 29, the net signing and shipment of US cotton in the 2025/2026 season show different trends, and the cumulative signing and shipment volumes are different from the same period last year [96] - **Textile Enterprises**: The inventory and load indexes of textile enterprises change slightly, with a general downward trend in load [98] - **Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The spot basis of cotton increases, and the 5 - 9 spread decreases [110] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: Non - commercial net positions of cotton decrease, and the number of domestic registered warehouse receipts increases [113] 3.5. Corn 3.5.1. Market Review - Corn spot prices are narrowly weak. Futures prices decline slightly. Different regions have different price trends [116] 3.5.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress accelerates this week, and the port inventory increases [118][119] - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices first rise and then stabilize, with a price difference from corn [122] - **Imported Substitute Grains**: The import volume of grains in 2025 shows different changes. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the import volume may increase in the future [124][136] - **Feed Demand**: The total output of industrial feed in 2025 increases. The inventory of feed enterprises increases slightly, and the feed demand is expected to continue to grow slightly [138][141] - **Deep - processing Demand**: The operating rate and output of the starch industry decline, and the processing profit of starch enterprises is mostly negative. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increases [145][146] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 production of Chinese corn is expected to increase, and the consumption is also expected to rise. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [153] 3.5.3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply - demand relationship of corn is expected to be tight, with spot prices expected to be strong and futures prices expected to rebound after a decline. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish inventory on a rolling basis, and futures investors reduce long positions moderately and buy on dips [156][157] 3.6. Hogs 3.6.1. Market Review - Hog spot prices continue to fall, and futures prices oscillate slightly higher. The supply from large - scale farms increases, and the demand from slaughterhouses recovers slightly [159][160] 3.6.2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term Supply**: The price of binary sows is stable. The inventory of breeding sows shows different trends according to different data sources, and the future supply of hogs is expected to change accordingly [163][164] - **Medium - term Supply**: The price of piglets is stable with a slight decline. The inventory of piglets shows different growth trends in different periods, which affects the future supply of hogs [175][176] - **Short - term Supply**: The inventory of large hogs decreases, and the proportion of large hogs in stock increases due to factors such as pre - festival demand and second - round fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens decreases [178][179][180] - **Current Supply**: The actual and planned slaughter volumes of hogs in January and February change, and the average slaughter weight decreases [186][188] - **Import Supply**: The import volume of pork in 2025 decreases year - on - year [195] - **Second - round Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for second - round fattening weakens at the end of January, and the cost decreases [197] - **Slaughter Demand**: The operating rate of slaughterhouses increases, and the slaughter volume in 2025 increases significantly [201] 3.6.3. Future Outlook - Before the festival, the supply and demand of hogs both increase, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices are also expected to be weak. It is recommended that futures investors short on rallies, and breeding enterprises increase hedging and reduce short positions with slaughter [202][204]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The A-share market weakened, and the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase to support the Spring Festival cross - season funds, leading to the overall rise of treasury bond futures [8] - The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the decline of long - term active bonds within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.807%, down 0.6bp [9] - The inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose. The supply pressure of local bonds remained high this week, and attention was paid to the central bank's liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival. The net open - market reverse repurchase was 6.45 billion yuan, and the inter - bank capital sentiment index declined [10] - Currently, the fundamental performance is weak, but the structural interest rate cut has been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's loose expectation is not strong. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing market concerns. However, the current 1.82% yield of 10 - year treasury bonds does not price in the possible future easing space, and there is allocation demand support at the beginning of the year. With the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the liquidity, the upward space of interest rates should be limited. In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate within a range [11] - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank is expected to actively support the cross - season funds, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, with a relatively warm market environment. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will rise. Although the cash return will supplement the liquidity, the central bank usually conducts net capital withdrawal, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important March meetings and policies, and long - term bonds may be more favorable [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares weakened, and treasury bond futures rose across the board due to the central bank's actions. The yields of interest rate bonds declined, and the inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market is in a multi - empty intertwined environment in February, with limited upward space for interest rates and a likely continuation of range - bound fluctuations. Before and after the Spring Festival, the market environment and bond performance may vary [11][12] 2. Industry News - National leaders had important communications, including President Xi Jinping's phone call with the US President and video meeting with the Russian President [13] - The People's Bank of China held a 2026 credit market working meeting, emphasizing financial services in various fields and debt risk resolution [13] - The Shanghai headquarters of the People's Bank of China organized a financial situation analysis meeting in Shanghai, putting forward requirements for credit growth, policy implementation, etc. [14] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development mentioned housing security for young people and support for multi - child families [14] - In January, the transaction volume of second - hand housing in 20 cities was 118,000 units, showing a slight month - on - month decline of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, but with prominent structural contradictions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including prices, trading volume, and positions of various treasury bond futures contracts on February 5 were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, and other money market indicators was presented, but specific data details were not elaborated in the text [23][28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves was given [34]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Although Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced the resumption of the ME11 service of the GEMINI alliance through the Red Sea/Suez Canal from mid - February 2026, most European - line varieties closed higher, possibly due to the continued speculation on the US - Iran situation and photovoltaic rush shipments. The peak of the pre - Spring Festival rush shipment demand has passed, and spot freight rates are expected to enter a downward channel. After the Spring Festival, it is likely to continue the off - season performance, and the relatively high shipping capacity in March limits the possible rebound. However, geopolitical conflicts may continue to provide trading hotspots. It is recommended to short the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced the resumption of the ME11 service of the GEMINI alliance through the Red Sea/Suez Canal from mid - February 2026, but European - line varieties closed higher. The pre - Spring Festival rush shipment peak has passed, and spot freight rates will decline. After the Spring Festival, due to slow resumption of work and the approaching of the traditional off - season in April, it is difficult to maintain high prices. Geopolitical conflicts may boost the sentiment of far - month peak - season contracts [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 2. Industry News - **China's Export Container Transport Market**: From January 26 to 30, the market continued to adjust. The overall demand for ocean routes was weak, and market freight rates declined, dragging down the composite index. On January 30, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1316.75 points, a 9.7% decrease from the previous period [9] - **European Routes**: The eurozone's January composite PMI was 51.5, lower than expected. Economic growth momentum slowed, and the service industry's expansion weakened. On January 30, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports was $1418/TEU, an 11.1% decrease from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes. The spot booking price continued to decline. On January 30, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports was $2424/TEU, a 12.0% decrease from the previous period [9] - **North American Routes**: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014. The spot booking price continued to adjust. On January 30, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports were $1867/FEU and $2605/FEU respectively, with decreases of 10.4% and 10.0% from the previous period [10] - **Other News**: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan; the Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia about possible military actions [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index**: From January 26 to February 2, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 3.6% to 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS for US West routes decreased by 14.9% to 1101.4 points [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Provided the trading data of container shipping European - line futures on February 5, including the opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change of each contract [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][23]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：2月4日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...