行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 8 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team, including Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, and Yu Feifei [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Shanghai zinc led the decline in non - ferrous metals. The main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%. It showed increased volume and open interest, with open interest increasing by 14,140 lots to 118,873 lots. The net short position of the top 20 long - short positions in total open interest increased by 6,418 lots. The fundamentals changed little, with zinc ore processing fees rising continuously and zinc ingot production remaining at a high level. The demand side was supported by policies but was weak in the short term. Production restrictions in North China suppressed galvanized consumption. The pressure of supply - demand surplus was reflected in inventory. Social inventory increased by 0.26 million tons to 14.89 million tons on Thursday. LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 54,750 tons, the lowest level since May 2023, with a 0 - 3 spread of B18.78. Despite the macro - level interest rate cut expectation and continuous de - stocking at LME, the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc could not resonate. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term and may test the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,210 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,100 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 21,970 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan or 0.79%, with an open interest of 8,355 lots, down 1,255 lots; for SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,240 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%, with an open interest of 118,873 lots, up 14,140 lots; for SHFE zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,280 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,330 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,010 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with an open interest of 70,099 lots, up 3,819 lots [7] 2. Industry News - On September 4, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, that of Shuangyan was 22,120 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was 21,910 - 22,110 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par to the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was about 21,980 - 22,170 yuan/ton. Regular brands were quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to Shanghai spot. In the first period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery, Hualian/Jiulong was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton for delivery, and Anning was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was 21,930 - 22,170 yuan/ton, that of Zijin was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,880 - 22,090 yuan/ton. Huludao was quoted at 22,570 yuan/ton. Ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 30 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Zijin was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Tianjin market was at a discount of about 10 yuan/ton to Shanghai market [8] - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,910 - 22,155 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 65 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at par to Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the first period, holders quoted a discount of 90 - 45 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, Feilong, and Lanxing; in the second period, the discount was 90 - 55 yuan/ton [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions (in million tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons), with data sources including Wind and SMM, as well as the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][11][12]

日期 2025 年 9 月 5 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 行业 铝日报 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 4 日沪铝继续下跌，主力报收 20605，环比上日下跌 0.77%%，09-10 贴水转为 升水 15，远月尚呈现 contango 结构，进口窗口保持关闭，现货进口亏损-1320 元/吨。期价下跌带动市场活跃度重新回归，下游刚需采买量增长，日内现货升贴 水均有所回暖。铸铝合金跟随沪铝节奏波动，AD-AL 负价差报-385，传统旺季将 至叠加废铝行业的税收返还终止政策导致行业成本抬升，多重因素共振下铸铝合 金走势有望转强，多 A ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 4, the Shanghai nickel price continued to decline, with the main contract closing down 0.53% to 120,850 yuan/ton. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel dropped by 50 to 2,050, and the premium/discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -200 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 1 to 945 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,870 yuan/ton [8]. - Affected by events such as Indonesia's adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and demonstrations, the decline of nickel ore is limited, and support is emerging. NPI remains strong under cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless - steel terminals is limited, so the subsequent upward space is restricted. The price of nickel sulfate remains strong, but the demand for new - energy ternary batteries is mediocre, and the expected increase is limited [8]. - Overall, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation. The nickel price continues to face pressure on the upside, and it is also difficult to break downward due to cost support. Short - selling at low levels has a relatively low cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to adopt a trading - range strategy, with the main operating range of the index referring to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The nickel price on September 4 showed a downward trend, along with changes in the premiums and discounts of different nickel products and the prices of related nickel - containing products. The report analyzes the supply and demand situation of different nickel - related products and gives an overall judgment on the nickel market, suggesting a trading - range strategy [8]. 2. Industry News - Tata Steel Mining's MD Pankaj K. Satija said India can relieve the supply shortage of key minerals like nickel through three paths: enhancing local mining and processing, recovering by - products from existing mining, and promoting "urban mining". India launched the National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM) in January this year, with a total budget of 163 billion rupees and plans to attract 180 billion rupees of state - owned enterprise investment to reduce dependence on Chinese supply [9]. - Indonesia's forest law - enforcement working group will conduct a centralized crackdown on illegal nickel mines. The action aims to regain state control of forests, and companies need to return illegal profits. Some cases may enter criminal investigations, and the seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department [10]. - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and the United Nations Global Compact, which reflects its commitment to environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rose as the market speculated on the change of mine types in Yichun. However, in the afternoon, the increase narrowed due to the broader decline in the A - share market. With the spot price remaining higher than the futures price, stronger price - holding at the mine end, the arrival of the peak demand season, and the uncertainty of the mine type change in Yichun, lithium prices are expected to stop falling and rebound [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures increased, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 74,440. The spot price dropped by 900 to 75,000, the Australian ore price remained flat at 850, and the lithium mica ore price dropped by 20 to 1,865. The production losses of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica expanded to 1,567 and 6,991 respectively [10] 3.2 Industry News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) responded to the policy investigation on the compliance of salt - lake lithium extraction mining rights in Qinghai, stating that its mining business is fully compliant and production is stable [13] - Ascend Elements announced the first commercial production of black recycled lithium carbonate with a purity of over 99% at its facility in Georgia. The company plans to expand the annual production of recycled lithium carbonate in the US and Europe to over 15,000 tons by 2027 [13]

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View - The SCFIS dropped below 1800 points in the current week, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline. Online quotes for the first half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $2000 per 40 - foot container. The price of the European route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, putting significant pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. The oversold rebound on Tuesday might be boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But since the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded that of last year and the overall shipping capacity has actually increased, the boosting effect may not be strong enough. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has fallen below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks. Online quotes in early September have been further reduced. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a smooth decline in the off - season, which puts pressure on the 10 - contract. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and the oversold rebound on Tuesday may be due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited. The 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, and there may be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 25th to August 29th, the overall China export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing divergent trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. The European route's market sentiment was weak, with the freight rate falling. The Mediterranean route followed the European route, with the freight rate dropping. The North American route's freight rate rebounded. There were also geopolitical events in the Middle East and the US's statement on the Palestinian issue [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route decreased from 1990.2 on August 25th to 1773.6 on September 1st, a decrease of 10.9%. The index for the US - West route decreased from 1041.38 to 1013.9, a decrease of 2.6% [12]. 3.2 Futures Market for Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 4th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies. The stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but incremental positive factors are still limited. The bond market has become less sensitive to the stock market since late August. Considering that the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the pressure on the bond market from the stock market may further ease. Historically, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019 due to factors like government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies may still be difficult to implement. Overall, the pressure on the bond market will ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough point, and investors may need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's continued adjustment boosted risk - aversion sentiment, and the meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank may have also boosted the expectation of treasury bond trading. Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yields of most major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with the increase in the medium - and long - term mostly within 1bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.7525%, up 0.5bp. At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the money market was stable. There were 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index remained stable, and most short - term capital interest rates rose slightly [8][9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - The second group - leader meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank was held to discuss issues such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, central bank treasury bond trading operations, and improving the offshore RMB treasury bond issuance mechanism. - The China - Shanghai Cooperation Organization Digital Economy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Tianjin, aiming to deepen international cooperation in the digital economy field between China and SCO countries. - Shanghai's first property market optimization policy "Shanghai Six Measures" was introduced, and its positive effects have been initially shown, with increased trading volume in both new and second - hand housing markets [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 4, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, trading volume, open interest, etc. were provided [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on the central bank's reverse repurchase operations, inter - bank capital sentiment index, and short - and medium - long - term capital interest rates was presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [35].

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 5 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜震荡下行，总持仓下降，近月价差转为 back，情绪面转谨慎，A 股持续下跌 以及美非农就业数据即将公布，施压铜价。现货铜跌 330 至 80190，升水跌 10 至 180，进口集中到货压制升水，周内社库累库 0.85 万吨，主因上海地区进口大量 到货累库 1.02 万吨，近期随着 LME0-3contango 结构缩窄，现货进口已经转为小 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review - Wanquan A Index: Fell for three consecutive trading days, with today's decline further expanding. It opened slightly higher and then oscillated lower. Sectors such as computing power, CPO, and military industry accelerated their decline as funds took profits. In the afternoon, sectors such as banks and securities companies showed abnormal movements, driving a slight recovery in the index at the end of the session. The index closed down 2.02%, with more than 50% of stocks falling [6]. - Index Spot: CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 2.12%, 1.71%, 2.48%, and 2.30% respectively [6]. - Index Futures: IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed down 1.82%, 1.67%, 2.09%, and 1.95% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price), performing stronger than the spot market overall [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - External Market: Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated their views on interest rate cuts, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in September. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation and the expectation of consecutive rate cuts in the fourth quarter [8]. - Domestic Market: Economic data in July showed a weakening on both the supply and demand sides. Currently, the economic fundamentals are under pressure, but the expectation of future recovery under the "anti - involution" policy remains strong [8]. - Liquidity: The margin trading balance rebounded slightly yesterday and remains at a historical high. Observe the subsequent changes in margin trading funds [8]. - Long - term: Stocks are still favored in the context of the concepts of "East rising, West falling" and "Technology narrative" [8]. - Short - term: After the expectation on September 3 was fulfilled, market volatility increased, and the market is currently in an oscillating correction trend. The CSI 300 (IF) and SSE 50 (IH) contracts may perform relatively better. One can try to go long on IF and short on IM to resist market corrections [8]. Group 4: Industry News - Trump asked the US Supreme Court to uphold his global tariff policy and seek a review of the case. The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to expedite the hearing process and hold a debate in early November [32]. - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 4 at a fixed interest rate through quantity bidding, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 212.6 billion yuan. Wind data showed that 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [32].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report suggests taking a bearish approach to oil prices [7] Core Viewpoints - This year, the peak - season consumption in the US is weak, and the market has digested the US interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. Oil prices have no driving force and are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting. If OPEC+ suspends production increases, oil prices can rebound slightly in the short term, but the rebound will be limited. If production continues to increase, it will intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and oil prices will face long - and medium - term downward pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $65.62, closing at $63.77, with a decline of 2.77%. Brent opened at $69.1 and closed at $67.39, down 2.53%. SC (in yuan/barrel) opened at 487 and closed at 481, a 2.2% drop. Market news indicates that OPEC+ is considering continuing to increase production from October at the meeting on the 7th, which led to a sharp overnight decline in oil prices. US crude and refined product inventories decreased as of the week ending the 22nd, supporting oil prices to some extent. However, the US travel peak season is ending, refinery operating rates have slightly declined, and there may be insufficient positive factors for oil prices in the future. US gasoline consumption this summer has not improved significantly despite lower prices compared to last year [6] - **Operational Suggestions**: Overall, with weak US peak - season consumption and the market's digestion of the US interest - rate cut expectation, oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The report recommends a bearish approach, closely watching the OPEC+ meeting [7] 2. Industry News - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that an additional increase in oil production by 8 OPEC+ countries is not currently on the agenda, and a decision will be made during the meeting - Sources said that OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at the Sunday meeting - The US hopes that Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join its proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy Russian oil - Citi slightly lowered its average Brent crude price forecast for 2026 to $62 per barrel (previously $65 per barrel) [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent price, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [10][12][20][23]