行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - RB2601 and HC2601 are expected to first decline and then rise, with limited room for further decline. Due to coal supply guarantees, iron ore price stabilization, and the expectation of supply - demand balance after the accumulation of production - cut effects [6][7][8]. - J2601 and JM2601 are expected to fluctuate weakly. Affected by coal supply guarantees, increased coal inventories, and potential oversupply, they face downward pressure [6][9][10]. - I2601 is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation. Although the demand side is weak, the decline in coking coal prices eases the pressure on iron ore, and the technical support provides some support for prices [11][12][83]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendation | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy | RB2601 | 3053 | First decline then rise | Coal - coking concessions, stabilized iron ore prices, relatively resistant steel prices, declining five - major steel products output, accelerated destocking of steel social inventory, weak seasonal demand, and the expectation of supply - demand balance [6] | | | HC2601 | 3256 | First decline then rise | Similar to RB2601 [6] | | | J2601 | 1669.5 | Fluctuate weakly | Coal supply guarantees, rising port coke inventory, increased Mongolian coal customs clearance, increased coking coal inventory in coking plants and ports, and the 1 - month delivery contract [6] | | | JM2601 | 1192 | Fluctuate weakly | Similar to J2601 [6] | | Inter - period Arbitrage | I2601 | 772.5 | Narrow - range fluctuation | Decline in Australian and Brazilian shipments to ports, decline in the output and apparent demand of five - major steel products, recovery of daily hot - metal output, repair of steel mill profits, and the first shipment of Simandou iron ore [6] | 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On November 14, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets turned stable with a slight increase [13]. - **Blast Furnace and Output**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and the average daily output of key large and medium - sized enterprises' crude steel increased [13]. - **Hot - Metal and Electric Furnace**: The daily average hot - metal output and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased [17]. - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, the rebar inventory in steel mills decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased [21]. - **Downstream Demand**: From January to October, real estate investment decreased, while automobile and metal - cutting machine tool production increased [21]. - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the loss of rebar 2601 contract disk profit narrowed [24]. - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit**: The loss of long - process and short - process steel mills' spot rebar gross profit showed different trends [29]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to first decline then rise, with limited downward space. It is advisable to consider buying for hedging or investment after mid - November when the basis is large [31][32]. - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to fluctuate between 100 - 170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate between - 30 - 40 yuan/ton [34][36]. 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The price of major coke spot markets turned stable after rising for two weeks, and the price of major coking coal markets continued to rise in some markets [38]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased, while those of 247 steel enterprises increased [38]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Coke port inventory increased, steel enterprise coke inventory decreased, coking plant coke inventory decreased, and the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises continued to lose money [41]. - **Mine Output and Inventory**: The daily average output and开工 rate of 523 sample mines increased, the fine - coal inventory decreased slightly, and the raw - coal inventory increased [41]. - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: From January to September, coking coal imports decreased. On November 14, port coking coal inventory decreased, coking plant coking coal inventory decreased slightly, and steel enterprise coking coal inventory increased [46]. - **Raw Coal and Coke Output**: From January to October, raw coal and coke output increased [46]. 3.3.2 Conclusions and Recommendations Coke and coking coal futures still need to digest the strong negative news. It is advisable to try the strategy of selling at high prices for hedging or investment [51][52]. 3.4 Iron Ore 3.4.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of November 13, the 62% Platts iron ore index declined. On November 14, the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased slightly, and the spreads between different ore types changed [53]. - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: On November 14, the inventory of 45 ports increased, the average daily unloading volume increased, the inventory available days of steel mills remained unchanged, and the sintered powder ore inventory of sample steel mills decreased [57]. - **Shipment and Arrival**: In the week of November 7, Australian and Brazilian shipments and port arrivals decreased. The cumulative shipments in the past four weeks decreased, and the arrival volume is expected to be high first and then low [57]. - **Domestic Mine Output and Capacity Utilization**: From January to September, domestic iron ore output decreased. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mines increased, and the overall output is expected to be stable with a slight increase [66]. - **Port Transaction Volume and Hot - Metal Cost**: As of November 13, the 5 - day moving average of the port iron ore transaction volume decreased. As of November 14, the average hot - metal cost of sample steel mills increased [68]. - **Hot - Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 14, the daily average hot - metal output, blast furnace capacity utilization rate, and blast furnace operation rate of 247 sample steel mills changed. The hot - metal output increased after six weeks of decline due to the repair of steel enterprise profits [71]. - **Five - Major Steel Products Output and Inventory**: In the week of November 14, the actual output, consumption, and inventory of five - major steel products decreased. The output decline of rebar was greater [73]. - **Transportation Cost**: As of November 12, major iron ore freight prices decreased. As of November 13, the Baltic Dry Index increased, and the Cape - size freight index decreased [79]. 3.4.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is advisable to consider the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy. It is necessary to observe whether steel enterprise profits continue to improve [83][84]. - **Basis**: As of November 14, the basis of iron ore in Qingdao Port narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [84].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on zinc, dated November 14, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown led to a recovery in risk appetite, but the increased policy divergence within the Fed and the hawkish shift of dovish voting members dampened the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Base metals on the outer market collectively declined, dragging down the center of Shanghai zinc to 22,425 yuan/ton, erasing the early-week gains. The correlations between the US dollar, the RMB, and LME zinc were 98% and 89% respectively this week, compared with 10% and 13% last week. The Shanghai-London ratio repaired to 7.40 at a low level, with the exchange ratio at 1.00. The pattern of a stronger outer market and a weaker domestic market persisted, with the import loss remaining above 4,000 yuan per ton. The opening of the export window led to an increase in zinc ingot exports. Near the delivery this week, the market delivery volume increased, while downstream consumption was flat, and the spot outbound volume was lower than the inbound volume. The domestic social inventory fluctuated narrowly around 160,000 tons. The premium of the Shanghai market over the December contract was 100 yuan/ton, Tianjin reported a premium of 130 yuan/ton over December, and Guangdong reported a discount of 60 yuan/ton over the December contract, narrowing the Shanghai-Guangdong spread. In terms of positions, both long and short positions held by investment companies or credit institutions decreased, with the net short position decreasing by 3,672 lots. The warrant holding report showed a bullish trend, and the concentration of large positions was low [8] Operation Suggestions - Due to the lack of key economic data during the US government shutdown, the remarks of Fed officials dominated the expectations. According to FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December dropped to 51.6%, with the probabilities of a cut and no cut almost equal, and market sentiment shifted. Since November, there have been successive deliveries at LME zinc warehouses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. As of the 12th, LME zinc inventory continued to increase by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash-3M spread's back structure slightly converged from around 138 at the beginning of the month to around 120, alleviating the tight supply situation. In China, the reduction of production at northern mines and the concentrated release of winter stockpiling demand by smelters led to a shortage of domestic ore supply. The panic buying by smelters pushed the processing fees down continuously. The SMM domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 200 to 2,650 yuan/ton, and the imported ore TC decreased by 4.17 to 98.37 US dollars/ton. The decline in TC squeezed the smelting profit, but the sulfuric acid price still rose steadily. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month-on-month. With the end of the peak season downstream and frequent environmental protection warnings, the trend of ferrous metals was relatively weak, and the orders for galvanized and die-cast zinc were relatively light, making it difficult to boost the consumption side. Overall, as a series of data will be released after the US government resumes operation, the market's assessment of the impact will be more cautious, and LME zinc will maintain a high-level shock. Against the background of the realization of increased exports in China, the supply-demand pattern has improved marginally. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the support of the tight ore logic on zinc prices, but it is still constrained by the previous high of 22,800 yuan. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 22,300 - 22,800 yuan [9] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - The panic buying by smelters pushed the processing fees down continuously: Due to the winter reduction and shutdown of mines and the winter stockpiling demand of smelters, the processing fees for zinc ore continued to decline under the tight ore supply pattern. The average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive processing fee for zinc concentrate (after a 2/8 split) was 4,160 yuan/ton. The SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 4.17 US dollars/dry ton to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. One ton of zinc produces two tons of acid as a by-product. The mainstream transaction price of 98% sulfuric acid in the East China market was 920 - 1,130 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of 98% smelting acid was 780 - 870 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in the price of raw material sulfur supported the stable increase of the sulfuric acid price from the cost side [18] - The overall refined zinc output in November may decline slightly: According to SMM, in October, China's refined zinc output increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to October increased by 10% year-on-year, lower than the expected value. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in November will decline by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year. It is expected that the cumulative output from January to November 2025 will increase by more than 10% year-on-year [18] - The opening of the export window led to an increase in zinc ingot exports: In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.61%. The cumulative import volume of refined zinc from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 19.27%. The export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons. The processing fees showed signs of stopping rising, increasing the production pressure on smelters. The overall performance of the peak season in consumption was not obvious, and the consumption support was insufficient. The social inventory increased to more than 160,000 tons. With the outer market stronger than the domestic market, the import loss of zinc ingots was more than 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opened. The export volume of zinc ingots by domestic smelters and traders increased to about 10,000 tons, and the import volume was mainly from long-term contracts [19] Demand Side - The operating rate of galvanizing was recorded at 57.59%, a month-on-month increase of 2.46%. The raw material inventory of galvanizing was 13,530 tons, and the finished product inventory was 365,600 tons. There were not many policies related to real estate and infrastructure during the peak season this year, and the improvement in project construction was limited. Orders for towers and photovoltaics showed some improvement. In the fourth quarter, it entered the seasonal off-season, and it was difficult for consumption to improve. Downstream traders purchased on a just-in-time basis, and there was no obvious improvement in enterprise orders. In November, the heating season began in the northern region, and environmental protection inspections increased, restricting the construction progress. Overall, the trend of ferrous metals was relatively weak. There may be a rush to complete projects before the Spring Festival, and the demand will be slightly postponed. The operating rate in the fourth quarter improved month-on-month but was weaker than the same period last year [20] - The operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was recorded at 50.30%, a month-on-month decline of 0.65%. The raw material inventory of die-cast zinc was 11,840 tons, and the finished product inventory was 11,290 tons. The overall downstream demand was relatively light. The demand for traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals was weak, and the overall demand for real estate hardware orders was also relatively light. The increase in aluminum and copper prices pushed up the production cost of alloys, and the net profit of enterprises shrank from the beginning of the year to less than 100 yuan/ton. Under this influence, there was also a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream [20] - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was recorded at 56.31%, a month-on-month decline of 1.32%. The raw material inventory of zinc oxide was 2,365 tons, and the finished product inventory was 6,075 tons. In the rubber-grade zinc oxide sector, the orders from large tire factories were relatively stable, but the demand from some small and medium-sized enterprises was weak. In the ceramic-grade zinc oxide market, the demand in the coarse ceramic market was still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises reported that the demand in the high-end ceramic-grade zinc oxide sector had also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed-grade and electronic-grade zinc oxide was relatively normal [21] Spot Market - Domestic inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons to 157,900 tons: As of November 13, the total inventory of SMM's seven major zinc ingot markets was 157,900 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from November 6 and a decrease of 1,700 tons from November 10, indicating a decrease in domestic inventory. Affected by the continuous opening of the export window and the reduction of arrivals at warehouses due to smelter production cuts, the inventory in the Shanghai area decreased significantly during the week. In the Guangdong area, downstream consumption was relatively flat, and the spot outbound volume was lower than the inbound volume. At the same time, near the delivery, the market delivery volume increased, driving a slight increase in inventory. Overall, the inventory in the original three major markets decreased by 2,000 tons, and the inventory in the seven major markets decreased by 1,700 tons [22] - LME zinc had a cumulative delivery of 2,050 tons: Since November, there have been successive deliveries at warehouses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. On the 12th, LME zinc inventory continued to increase by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash-3M spread's back structure slightly converged from around 138 at the beginning of the month to around 120 [22]

Report Overview - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the medium - to long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the new policy expectations from the 14th Five - Year Plan. However, in the short term, the index may fluctuate around the key pressure level of 4000 on the Shanghai Composite Index, and the market style may favor defensive sectors and large - cap blue - chip stocks [13]. - For treasury bonds, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is in a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and investors are advised to seize allocation opportunities in case of market over - adjustment [69][70][71]. - For shipping indices, the freight rate is likely to form a bottom - up trend, but the actual demand may not support a large price increase. It is recommended to short the off - season April contract [93]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Indices Market Review - The A - share market has shown a trend of "short - term correction followed by strong performance, and rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks" since the beginning of the year. From November 10 - 14, the A - share market fell with volume, and most major broad - based indices declined. In terms of market style, the consumption and financial sectors led the gains [7][8]. - Externally, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has dropped to about 50%. Domestically, the economic data in October showed a weakening of both supply and demand ends, and the marginal pressure on the domestic economy has increased. Although the margin balance has reached a new high, the participation of retail investors is not high. Overall, the medium - to long - term upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are expected [12][13]. 成交持仓分析 - The trading volume of stock index futures showed a differentiated trend this week. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 111,900, 50,300, 125,900, and 206,400 lots respectively, with changes of + 2,400, + 1,400, - 8,500, and - 12,100 lots compared to last week. The average daily open interest also showed a differentiated trend [14]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis was negative and widened. The spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts and between the current - quarter and current - month contracts of most varieties showed a negative value, with some spreads widening and some narrowing. In terms of cross - variety spreads, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better [16][22][24]. 行业板块概况 - In the CSI 300, the consumption, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors led the gains, while the information, communication, and public utility sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500, the consumption, pharmaceutical, and real estate sectors led the gains, and the information, energy, and communication sectors led the losses. At the first - level industry level, the comprehensive, textile and apparel, and commercial retail sectors led the gains, while the electronics, communication, and computer sectors led the losses [26][28]. 估值比较 - As of November 14, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4074, 12.1321, 33.5349, and 48.0448 times respectively, and they were at the 89.38%, 92.76%, 80.04%, and 77.95% quantile levels in the past ten years [32]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The central bank released a loose signal again. The performance of treasury bond futures this week was affected by factors such as inflation data, the central bank's monetary policy report, and the stock market trend. In terms of strategy, there is a certain positive arbitrage space in each contract, and the basis of the 10 - year main contract is slightly high, with the potential for convergence [35][37][40]. - **Bond Spot Market**: The yields of domestic treasury bond spots fell across the board, while the yields of US treasury bonds rose across the board [57]. - **Funding Situation**: The inter - bank funding tightened, and the central bank turned to net investment. The funding rate fluctuated, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [60][62]. Market Analysis - The bond market stabilized and strengthened in October. Currently, the economic fundamentals face pressure, and the government's policies release a loose signal. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved [69][70][71]. - The economic data in October further weakened, and the social financing growth was lower than expected, which supported the bond market [72]. Next Week's Open Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - A large amount of reverse repurchase and treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature next week, and the LPR quotation will be announced on Thursday [79]. Shipping Indices Market Review - The container shipping futures on the European route first rose and then fell. The SCFIS rebounded better than expected, but the shipping companies' reduction of the price increase in late November dampened the price increase expectation at the end of the year [80]. Container Shipping Market Situation - **Spot Market**: The freight rates of ocean - going routes showed a differentiated trend, with the rates on the European and US routes falling. The shipping companies' reduction of price increase quotations dampened the price increase expectation, and the market is waiting for the actual implementation of the price increase in December [85][86]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity to Europe remains at a relatively high level, and the future supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the macro - demand in the eurozone continues to show a weak recovery, and the demand - side support for container shipping prices is limited [89][90]. Market Outlook - The freight rate is likely to form a bottom - up trend, but the actual demand may not support a large price increase. It is recommended to short the off - season April contract [93].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Group 2: Fats and Oils Core Viewpoint - The trends of the three major fats and oils are differentiated. Palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to fluctuate weakly. Rapeseed oil is policy - dominated, and in the short - term, with inventory depletion and tight spot supplies, it is mainly a long - position configuration. Soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400, with a bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: Palm oil is the weakest among the three major fats and oils, showing a fluctuating and weak pattern. Soybean oil futures rebounded slightly, and rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [8][9] - **Operation suggestions**: For palm oil, wait for clearer guidance; for rapeseed oil, take a long - position configuration; for soybean oil, expect it to fluctuate in the 8000 - 8400 range [9] 2. Core Points - **Domestic spot changes**: As of November 14, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all increased weekly, and their basis also increased [10] - **Domestic inventory of the three major fats and oils**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing inventory declines [22] - **Domestic supply of fats and oils and oilseeds**: The soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil plants decreased compared to last week, and the rapeseed opening rate of major domestic oil plants was almost at a standstill. The import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025 showed different trends [25][29] - **Palm oil dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory increased, while imports decreased. From November 1 - 10, production decreased. India's palm oil imports in October decreased [32][33] - **CFTC positions**: Relevant position charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [44] Group 3: Live Pigs Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may increase slightly until the first half of next year; in the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and terminal consumption may gradually improve. Overall, the spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: The average national live pig slaughter price fluctuated weakly this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The expected cost of pig fattening showed different trends, and the breeding profit decreased [48] - **Futures market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 fluctuated and declined, with a closing price of 11860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [49] 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - term supply: Breeding sow inventory**: The price of binary sows remained stable this week. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Different data sources have different estimations of future pig slaughter [54][58] - **Medium - term supply: Piglet inventory**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets increased this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and future pig slaughter is expected to increase [71] - **Short - term supply: Large - pig inventory, hoarding, and secondary fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales decreased. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [73][74] - **Current supply: Commercial pig slaughter volume and slaughter weight**: In October 2025, the actual pig sales volume exceeded the planned volume. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased this week [81][82] - **Import supply: Pork imports**: In September 2025, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year [84] - **Demand**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the slaughter enterprise's opening rate increased slightly this week. The national large - scale live pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 increased year - on - year [90][91] 3. Future Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [98] - **Important variables**: Swine fever epidemic, hoarding, and secondary fattening consensus expectations [99] Group 4: Corn Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and the supply is sufficient. Substitute products have reduced price advantages, and future imports may remain low. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the procurement of deep - processing enterprises is active, but inventory increase is difficult. Overall, the spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Spot market**: This week, the corn price was strong. In the Northeast, North Port traders raised prices to stimulate arrivals; in North China, farmers were reluctant to sell, and deep - processing enterprises raised prices to purchase; in the sales area, prices increased due to cost factors [100] - **Futures market**: As of November 13, the main Dalian futures contract 2601 closed at 2186 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from last Thursday [101] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn supply**: This week, the grain sales progress slowed down, and the overall progress was faster than the same period last year. The inventory of northern and southern ports increased [105][108] - **Domestic substitutes**: This week, the wheat price fluctuated weakly. The corn price was 272 yuan/ton lower than the wheat price [109] - **Import substitute grains**: In September 2025, China's import volume of grains increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of different grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was high, but imports may remain low in the future [110][120] - **Feed demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The proportion of corn in feed decreased. Pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly, and feed production is expected to continue to increase [121][129] - **Deep - processing demand**: Recently, the corn starch industry's production profit was good, and the opening rate increased. The processing profit of starch enterprises in different regions changed differently, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased [131][133] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, China's corn planting area, yield, and consumption are expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to increase [137] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions and set stop - losses [142] - **Important variables**: Policies on purchasing, selling, and storing, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [143] Group 5: Soybean Meal Core Viewpoint - The external market of soybean meal is close to a short - term high, and the domestic market is cautiously bullish in the short - term. The risk lies in the possibility that China may only purchase a small amount of US soybeans in the future [146][147] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: As of November 14, the coastal soybean meal price increased slightly [145] - **Futures market**: The external market of US soybeans was strong, and the domestic soybean meal rose due to cost - push factors. In the short - term, it should be treated with caution and bullishness [146][147] 2. Core Points - **Soybean planting**: In the USDA September report, the new - crop US soybean planting and harvest area decreased year - on - year, and the yield and inventory were adjusted. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields are expected to increase. The US soybean harvest is almost complete, and the Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress is different [148][150] - **US soybean exports**: As of September 25, the US soybean export volume decreased year - on - year. After the Sino - US agreement, there are uncertainties about future Chinese purchases [155] - **Domestic soybean imports and crushing**: As of November 13, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was negative. The soybean crushing volume and opening rate decreased. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The port soybean inventory will be high in the short - term and then decrease [166][168] - **Soybean meal trading and inventory**: As of November 7, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. The trading was not active in October, and the terminal demand is expected to be good [172] - **Basis and inter - month spreads**: As of November 13, the soybean meal 01 contract basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread was stable. The 01 contract is relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread may increase [175] - **Domestic registered warehouse receipts**: As of November 13, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [180] Group 6: Eggs Core Viewpoint - The spot market will adjust narrowly at a low level next week. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered at low prices, and a reverse spread between the near - and far - month contracts is appropriate [183] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot market**: The spot market weakened this week, and it is expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week [183] - **Futures market**: The futures market declined this week, with the near - month contracts falling more. In the future, the far - month contracts may have opportunities [183] 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down, and the inventory structure changed [184][186] - **Cost, income, and breeding profit**: As of November 13, the egg price decreased, the feed cost remained stable, the egg - chick price decreased, the breeding profit was at a historically low level but improved compared to last week [189]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October 2025, but it is likely to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. New round of pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the coming year, and gold's long - term bullish trend is well - founded [4]. - The end of the US federal government shutdown had short - term and long - term impacts on the US economy. In the short term, it may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, while in the long run, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound in late 2025 and 2026, which is negative for precious metals [16][17]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, as the medium - term bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over, and attention should be paid to the opportunities to go long again [30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economic Situation in China - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October due to reduced stimulus from pro - growth measures, international trade tensions, and the decline of export - rush demand. New pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the future [4]. - From January to October, China's cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment shrank by 1.7%, with manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment all showing different degrees of slowdown [5]. - In October, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to October was 4.3% [8]. - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The domestic supply - demand imbalance worsened [9]. - In October, China's real estate market continued to be weak, with the national real estate climate index falling, sales, completion, and new construction areas all shrinking, and high inventory levels [11][12]. - In October, new and second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China declined, and the positive feedback cycle of falling prices and weak sales resumed [14]. 3.1.2 Impact of the End of the US Federal Government Shutdown - The 43 - day US federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, caused a short - term shock to the US economy, with an estimated loss of about $645 billion and a predicted 1.5 - percentage - point reduction in Q4 2025 GDP growth [15][16]. - After the shutdown ended, the release of previously suspended economic data may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, leading to a rise in US stocks and precious metal prices. In the long term, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound, which may lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in the first half of 2026, negative for precious metals [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure [19][20]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8% - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [22]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of November 13, 2025, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 22.4% and 13.8% higher than their May 2024 lows respectively [23]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the long - term bull market of gold. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices rose due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation but then corrected and rebounded [26][27]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, with London gold expected to reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver expected to reach $58 and $63 per ounce [30]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai showed different trends from June 2024 to October 2025. The correlation between gold and other assets also changed, with the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index turning positive, and the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields weakening [31].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided. However, individual product trends and potential investment suggestions are given: - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. - For asphalt, it is suggested to try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. - For polyester (PTA and ethylene glycol), PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. - For short - fiber, the price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. - For polyolefins, the price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. - For soda ash, the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184]. 3. Core Views - The energy and chemical industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. Most products face supply - side pressure, and the demand side shows different degrees of weakness. Crude oil and related products are affected by global supply - demand imbalances, while some chemical products are affected by industry - specific factors such as production capacity changes and downstream demand trends [8][30][85]. 4. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices fluctuated with a downward trend. WTI and SC prices decreased slightly, while Brent increased slightly. The market is in a situation of supply surplus in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Supply**: OPEC + supply release is relatively stable, but the suspension of production increase in the 1st quarter of 2026 has limited support. Non - OPEC supply continues to increase, and the supply surplus is deepening [9][11]. - **Demand**: EIA and IEA expect global demand growth to be mainly driven by non - OECD countries, but the growth rate is relatively slow compared to supply growth [10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in various regions also decreased. The cost side is affected by the weakening of the crude oil market, and the demand side in the northern region has declined significantly [29]. - **Supply**: Some refineries plan to adjust production or conduct maintenance, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [29][32]. - **Demand**: The demand in the northern region has decreased significantly due to weather factors, and the demand in the southern region has also declined marginally [29][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. Polyester (PTA and Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: PTA cost support was strong first and then weak, and ethylene glycol prices oscillated downward [55]. - **Supply**: PTA supply is expected to be sufficient, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices and new device trials [55][56]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester is stable in the short term but has a weakening expectation in the future [56]. - **Operation Suggestion**: PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of polyester short - fiber in the East China market declined oscillatingly last week [67]. - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [67][69]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is weak, and the support for short - fiber is gradually weakening [68][69]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined slightly. The market is in a situation of bottom - oscillating due to supply - demand contradictions and cost - side pressure [73][84]. - **Supply**: The new production capacity is gradually released, and the production is expected to increase. Some maintenance devices will restart, and the production loss will decrease [85][86]. - **Demand**: The peak season is over, and the demand is expected to weaken. The downstream mainly conducts just - in - time procurement, and the demand support is weak [85]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly, and the price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [114]. - **Supply**: The overall supply is loose, and the new production capacity is expected to be released in the future, increasing the supply pressure [119]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream glass industries is weak, and the inventory of glass is high, which may further reduce the demand for soda ash [131][132]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated after a short - term rise. The price is affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest region and news in the photovoltaic industry [147]. - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region has decreased due to factors such as power cost increases, and the overall supply is affected [148]. - **Demand**: The demand from the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries has different trends. The demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is relatively stable, while the organic silicon industry plans to reduce production [149][150]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated with a weak start and then a strong end. The price is affected by policy expectations and market news [164]. - **Supply**: The supply is still higher than the demand, and the actual production reduction needs to be observed [165]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand has not recovered from the weak stage, and the price increase of polysilicon is limited by the downstream acceptance [165][168]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, and the spot price of imported pulp also increased. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure at the previous high [183]. - **Supply**: The supply pressure from domestic and foreign pulp mills is still released to the domestic market, and the inventory has increased [184]. - **Demand**: The performance of downstream base papers is still differentiated, and the packaging paper market is good, while other base paper prices are stable [184]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining, and the current comprehensive price has dropped to around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the peak in 2024. As the compliance period approaches, the spot price has rebounded. The optimal carry - forward rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry forward 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but need to apply before June 10, 2026 [9]. - According to the Fudan Carbon Index Research Center's model, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the highest price of the national carbon market composite price was 59.30 yuan/ton, the lowest was 50.34 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 51.96 yuan/ton, a 10.37% decrease from the same period last month. The trading volume of the listed agreement transaction was 10522.58 million tons, with a turnover of 487.1171 million yuan; the trading volume of the bulk agreement transaction was 3093.67 million tons, with a turnover of 1496.84425 billion yuan; the trading volume of the one - way auction was 10,000 tons, with a turnover of 4.475 million yuan [8]. - In the second week of November, the highest price of the national carbon market quota was 62.48 yuan/ton, the lowest was 57.72 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 60.17 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.12%. The trading volume of the listed agreement transaction was 614.79 million tons, with a turnover of 377.6497 million yuan; the trading volume of the bulk agreement transaction was 1062.71 million tons, with a turnover of 629.8574 million yuan; there was no one - way auction this week. The total trading volume of the national carbon emission quota this week was 1677.50 million tons, and the total turnover was 100.7507 million yuan [9]. 3.2 Market News - Recently, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low - Carbon Transformation and Strengthening the Construction of the Carbon Market", aiming to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market, implement quota total control and paid allocation, gradually tighten quotas, accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market, and improve the vitality of the national carbon market [11]. - At the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Brazil on November 11, Li Gao, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, stated that the carbon market has no unified standard model, and China will explore a carbon market system suitable for its national conditions. In the future, it will gradually implement quota total control and paid allocation [11]. - On November 13, Tu Guangshao said at the Taihu World Cultural Forum · Qiantang Dialogue that the carbon market has given rise to the form of carbon assets, and the inclusion of carbon assets in the balance sheet is of great significance in promoting the optimization of the green and low - carbon ecological system. Although the progress of carbon asset inclusion in the balance sheet in China shows a good momentum, the number of enterprises including carbon assets in the balance sheet is still insufficient [11]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided, only the titles of two figures "Electricity Generation Year - on - Year Growth Rate (%)" and "Newly Installed Photovoltaic Capacity" are given [12]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 14 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 沪锌主力 2512 收于 22740 元/吨，涨 100，涨幅 0.44，放量减仓，持仓减 2967 手至 102938 手。11 月以来新加坡、香港、高雄陆续有交仓，12 日 LME 锌库存续增 575 吨至 35875 吨，较月初累计录增 2050 吨，Cash-3M 价差 128.30B，供应紧张有所缓解。国内北方矿山季节性减产，部分矿山完成年度 计划后主动控产，国内锌矿 TC 环比走弱。TC 下降挤压冶炼利润，但硫酸价 格仍稳中有升，关注 ...