研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 上周在伦敦黄金反弹至 4245 美元/盎司和伦敦白银接近历史记录之后，美联 储官员表态鹰派抑制了美联储降息预期，美元汇率获得提振而金银价格随之回落； 我们判断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利 空因素，与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡， 伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突 破动能，目前阶段不宜过度追涨杀跌。但在中期维度，环球央行宽松、地缘政 ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现：多晶硅主力合约价格先弱后强，PS2601 合约收盘价 52655 元/吨，跌 幅 2.90%，成交量 249766 手，持仓量 136243 手，净减 8948 手。 现货价格：多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 4.9-5.5 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡偏弱调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 14801 元/吨，较 上一交易日跌 5 元/吨。当前 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货11月17日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 116.070 | 116.220 | 116.450 | 116.460 | 0.380 | 0.33 | 88270 | 103541 | -3316 | | TL2603 | 115.850 | 116.010 | 116 ...

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌 | 总量 | 增减 | | TA2601 | 4700 | 56 | ...

1. Report Type and Date - The report is a daily steel review dated November 17, 2025 [1][2] 2. Research Team - The black metal research team includes researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Review 3.1 Futures Market - On November 14, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures 2601 first declined and then rebounded. The RB2601 contract closed at 3053 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the HC2601 contract closed at 3256 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the SS2601 contract closed at 12380 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [5] - In terms of position changes, the long - short position changes of various contracts were different. For example, the long position of RB2601 decreased by 1,147 hands, and the short position decreased by 3,601 hands [6] 3.2 Spot Market - On November 14, the prices of some rebar spot markets rose more than they fell, and the prices of individual hot - rolled coil markets declined. The rebar prices in Nanning, Tianjin, and Jinan rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the rebar price in Changchun fell by 10 yuan/ton; the hot - rolled coil price in Nanning fell by 10 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Technical Indicators - The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2601 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract also had a golden cross. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2601 contract had a golden cross; the green column of the daily MACD of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days and was close to a golden cross [7] 4. Market Outlook - In terms of news, recently, coal supply - guarantee policies have been introduced, and the prices of coke and coking coal futures have declined significantly [8] - Fundamentally, previously, steel mills accelerated production cuts, raw material prices and steel costs declined under pressure, and steel mill profits significantly rebounded. With the concession of coal and coke, the iron ore price has stabilized in recent days, making steel prices relatively resistant to decline. The weekly demand decline of the five major steel products has narrowed, and the production of the five major steel products has continued to decline, leading to a faster reduction in steel social inventory [8][9] - In terms of raw materials, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports in the past 4 weeks decreased by 3.8% month - on - month, but it increased by 11.9% in the previous 4 weeks, and the overall supply of iron ore is still relatively abundant. The coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined to the lowest level since late March. Although coking plants and steel mills continue to reduce coke inventory, the coke inventory at ports has increased in the past 6 weeks. Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded significantly. The coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants and ports have increased by 22.7% and 16.8% respectively compared with the previous lows in August - September [9] - Considering the seasonal weak demand for steel, but with the accumulation of production - cut effects, there is an expectation that supply and demand will reach a new balance. It is expected that steel futures may first decline and then rebound, and the space for further decline is limited. It is advisable to try buying hedging or investment in the large basis range after mid - November, and attention should be paid to the resistance of the spot market and whether subsequent production data can stabilize temporarily [9] 5. Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement to maintain a healthy market competition order [10] - From January to October 2025, the national coke production was 419.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; steel production was 1.21759 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; pig iron production was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [10] - In October 2025, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, and the growth rate accelerated by 6.4 percentage points compared with September [10] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%. By industry, the investment in the primary industry was 80.75 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the investment in the second industry was 1.48411 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; the investment in the third industry was 2.52429 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% [10] - In October 2025, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the crude oil production was 18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; the crude oil processing volume was 63.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; the natural gas production was 22.1 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [10] - In October 2025, among 41 major industries, 29 industries had year - on - year growth in added value. The coal mining and washing industry increased by 6.5%, the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 1.9%, and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.4% [11] - From January to October 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 788.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, domestic loans were 121.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8%; foreign investment was 190 million yuan, a decrease of 37.5%; self - raised funds were 284.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0%; deposits and prepayments were 232.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.0%; personal mortgage loans were 108.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% [11] - From January to October 2025, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. At the end of October, the unsold commercial housing area was 756.06 million square meters, a decrease of 3.22 million square meters compared with the end of September [11] - From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [11] - In early November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.26 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.926 million tons, a 6.0% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.804 million tons, a 3.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.84 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.884 million tons, a 5.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month [11] - In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.49 million tons, an increase of 860,000 tons or 5.9% compared with the previous ten - day period; an increase of 3.12 million tons or 25.3% compared with the beginning of the year; a decrease of 390,000 tons or 2.5% compared with the same ten - day period of last month; an increase of 1.83 million tons or 13.4% compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 800,000 tons or 5.4% compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [11] - In early November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.93 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate; an increase of 2.34 million tons or 35.5% compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 2 million tons or 28.9% compared with the same period of last year [11] - Shanxi Coking Coal stated on November 14 that it has no layout in the new energy field for the time being [11] - Changyuan Power's wholly - owned subsidiary's 100MW wind farm project in Babao Town, Songzi City, Hubei Province, was approved on November 14. The dynamic total investment of the project is 582.91 million yuan, and the static total investment is 572.5 million yuan [11] - In the week of November 14, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased during the fluctuation. As of November 14, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons compared with the same period of last week, the same as the same period of last month, and a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the same period of last year [11] - On November 12, the vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association met with the business and development executive vice - president of Vale, and they exchanged views on the operation and demand of the Chinese steel industry, Vale's iron ore production and operation, and the green and low - carbon development of the steel industry [11][12] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for the global oil surplus in 2026 for the sixth consecutive month, expecting the daily supply to exceed demand by about 4 million barrels [12] - In October 2025, India's electricity demand decreased by 5.2% year - on - year due to abnormal rainfall and lower temperatures [12] 6. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, steel mill inventory, social inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][19][22][27][32][33]

Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The spot market has weakened again this week. The prices of pink eggs in Hubei and Hunan have gradually declined, while the prices of red eggs in the north have remained stable. The market sales have returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there will be no significant price drops as in the rainy season and summer. Egg prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, prices have declined this week. The near - term contracts have dropped significantly as they are approaching delivery, while the far - term contracts are relatively firm due to the expectation of a decline in inventory. [8] - Fundamentally, the laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, indicating that the poor breeding profits have gradually affected the supply side. The monthly replenishment data in the past four months shows that the laying - hen inventory is expected to decline slightly in the medium term. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a market reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] - In terms of operation, the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The low spot price may continue for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts is advisable. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2601, 2602, and 2512 have declined, with decreases of 1.73%, 0.13%, and 0.26% respectively. The average price in the main production areas is 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat the market as a low - level fluctuation in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - term contracts on dips, and consider a reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts. [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024. [9][10] 3. Data Overview - **Elimination Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the national elimination volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend. [18] - **Elimination Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month. [18]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...