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建信期货原油日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:00
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The closing price of PS2511 was 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%, with a trading volume of 242,016 lots and an open interest of 111,187 lots, a net decrease of 4,904 lots. The closing price of PS2601 was 53,425 yuan/ton, up 2.27%, with a trading volume of 41,433 lots and an open interest of 33,020 lots, a net increase of 246 lots [4]. - Before the holiday, the market entered a policy vacuum period. As the long - holiday approached, the risk preference of funds decreased. However, after the futures price tested the rigid support of the spot price at the lower end of the range and then rebounded, the oscillation pattern between 48,000 - 55,000 remained unchanged. The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 51,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals after the long - holiday requires greater policy support. The planned monthly output of 100,000 tons is not enough to drive the industry chain to fully destock, and policy drive is more important [4]. - With the strict implementation of the new energy - consumption standard, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon will be substantially improved. After the adjustment of the existing production - capacity structure, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a decrease of 31.4% compared with the installed production capacity [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. PS2511 closed at 51,380 yuan/ton, up 2.41%, with a trading volume of 242,016 lots and an open interest of 111,187 lots, a net decrease of 4,904 lots. PS2601 closed at 53,425 yuan/ton, up 2.27%, with a trading volume of 41,433 lots and an open interest of 33,020 lots, a net increase of 246 lots [4]. - Future outlook: Before the holiday, it entered a policy vacuum period. As the long - holiday approached, the risk preference of funds decreased. The futures price tested the rigid support of the spot price at the lower end of the range and then rebounded. The oscillation pattern between 48,000 - 55,000 remained unchanged. The transaction price range of n - type re -投料 was 51,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton. The improvement of the fundamentals after the long - holiday requires greater policy support. The planned monthly output of 100,000 tons is not enough to drive the industry chain to fully destock, and policy drive is more important [4]. 3.2 Market News - On September 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,850 lots, a decrease of 20 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - According to the Notice on Improving the Price Mechanism to Promote the Proximity Consumption of New - energy Power Generation, the power source of proximity - consumption projects should be connected to the user side at the demarcation point between the user and the public - power grid property. The proportion of the annual self - generated electricity of new energy to the total available generated electricity should be no less than 60%, and the proportion to the total electricity consumption should be no less than 30%, and no less than 35% for new projects starting from 2030. The project should have the condition of sub - meter measurement, and the power - grid enterprise should install measurement devices at the power - generation, plant - power - consumption, grid - connection, self - use, and energy - storage junctions to accurately measure the electricity data of each link [5]. - The number of domestic polysilicon producers in operation remained at 10, with one enterprise's maintenance expected to end at the end of September and resume normal production in early October [5]. - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued the draft for comments on three mandatory national standards, including the Energy - Consumption Quotas per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium. After the formal implementation of this standard, enterprises whose energy consumption per unit product of polysilicon fails to meet the benchmark value requirement (6.4 kgce/kg) will be required to make rectifications within a time limit. Enterprises that fail to make rectifications within the time limit or fail to meet the access value (5.5 kgce/kg) after rectification will be shut down. After the adjustment of the existing production - capacity structure, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a decrease of 31.4% compared with the installed production capacity [5].
建信期货铝日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The AD Index adjusted during the day, and the commodity index performed weakly. The main contract of SHFE aluminum continued to decline, with the 2511 contract closing down 0.41% at 2877. The spread between the October and November contracts turned to par, and the far - month contracts still maintained a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss narrowed by 200 to about - 1530 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the spot price of downstream alumina is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the changes in the mining rights policy before the election in Guinea [7]. - Alumina adjusted with the sector, and the callback amplitude deepened. At this price, some manufacturers are again on the verge of profit and loss, and cost support is gradually emerging. The short - selling risk is relatively high, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow SHFE aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long AD and short AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. The peak season of "Golden September" has arrived, but the inflection point of inventory has not appeared. With the decline in the absolute price and the pre - holiday stocking demand of aluminum processing enterprises, it is expected that the inventory pressure will be relieved. SHFE aluminum has returned to the previous oscillation range, and pay attention to the support at the 20,500 level in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **SHFE Aluminum**: The main 2511 contract of SHFE aluminum closed down 0.41% at 20,685. The 10 - 11 spread turned to par, and the import window remained closed with the spot import loss narrowing [7]. - **Bauxite**: Northern domestic bauxite production has not resumed, with low probability of resuming this year. There are both upward and downward pressures on bauxite prices. Imported bauxite is oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to Guinea's mining rights policy [7]. - **Alumina**: It adjusted with the sector, with a deeper callback. Cost support is emerging at the price of 2877, and short - selling risk is high. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Its trend follows SHFE aluminum. Pay attention to the long AD short AL strategy due to the peak season and policy changes [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Operating capacity is high. Although the peak season has arrived, the inventory inflection point is delayed. It is expected that inventory pressure will ease. Pay attention to the 20,500 support level [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **EGA's IPO**: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, which is expected to be one of the largest listings in the Middle East. Its valuation is estimated to be between $10 billion and $15 billion. It has entrusted several banks for the IPO and hired Rothschild as a consultant. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. The IPO will test international investors' attitude towards Middle East aluminum assets and further consolidate the UAE's position in the aluminum supply chain [8][10]. - **Japanese Aluminum Can Demand**: In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different regional registrations [9].
建信期货锌期货日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:06
Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic base metals all declined. The main contract of SHFE zinc, ZN2511, closed at 21,845 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 0.68%, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons, and the high overseas spot premium and soft squeeze supported the zinc price. The domestic processing fee has limited upward momentum, and the SMM monthly domestic TC for zinc concentrate is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2 dollars/dry ton to 98.25 dollars/dry ton. The price of by - product sulfuric acid has stabilized and declined. Although the comprehensive profit has shrunk, it is still at a relatively high level. In September, due to more smelter overhauls and supply shortages in some secondary zinc enterprises, the monthly output is expected to decline by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons, and the supply side remains generally loose. On the demand side, the operating rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide have increased slightly, but the overall consumption in the peak season is not ideal. The operating rate in the primary consumption field has increased month - on - month but is weaker than the same period last year. The social inventory decreased slightly on Monday. There is still some bargain - hunting replenishment when the zinc price falls, but the previous price fixing is basically completed, and the increase in the spot premium is limited. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate between 21,800 - 22,500 yuan [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the changes in prices and open interest of different SHFE zinc contracts (ZN2510, ZN2511, ZN2512) are presented. For example, ZN2511 opened at 22,080 yuan/ton, closed at 21,845 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 0.68%, and the open interest increased by 9,947 lots to 140,372 lots [7]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons, and the overseas spot premium is high (0 - 3B45.99). The domestic processing fee has limited upward momentum, and the SMM monthly domestic TC for zinc concentrate is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2 dollars/dry ton to 98.25 dollars/dry ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, due to more smelter overhauls and supply shortages in some secondary zinc enterprises, the monthly output is expected to decline by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, the operating rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide have increased slightly, but the overall consumption in the peak season is not ideal. The social inventory decreased slightly on Monday [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Markets**: On September 23, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc, 1 zinc, and high - end brands like Shuangyan in different markets (Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, Guangdong) are provided, along with the premiums or discounts of different brands against relevant contracts in different trading periods [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: The data in the report are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures, including the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - to - month spreads [12][17].
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:05
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily review of coke and coking coal futures on September 24, 2025, written by the black metal research team of CCB Futures [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - On September 23, the main contracts J2601 and JM2601 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after hitting lows. The closing prices of J2601 and JM2601 were 1717.5 yuan/ton and 1217.5 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of 0.67% and 0.94% [5] - The long - short positions of the top 20 in the black - series futures on September 23 showed different trends in different contracts. For example, the long - short position deviation of RB2601 was - 4.20% [6] Group 3: Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On September 23, the spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao, Qingdao, and Tianjin ports remained unchanged. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in some regions increased, such as a 60 - yuan increase in Tangshan and a 30 - yuan increase in Handan [8] - The daily KDJ indicators of the J2601 and JM2601 contracts continued to diverge, with the J - value falling, the K - value turning down, and the D - value rising, showing a potential dead - cross trend. The MACD green bars of the two contracts narrowed for two consecutive trading days [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry in the next two years [10] - In terms of fundamentals, coke production from independent coking plants slightly declined from a new high since late May, while that from steel mills significantly increased from a low since August 2023. Coke inventory at ports dropped to a new low since early August, while steel mill inventory increased for four consecutive weeks, and coking plant inventory decreased after four weeks of slight increase. Tonnage coke profit turned from profit to loss after five weeks of profitability. After the second round of spot price cuts on September 15, some Shanxi coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 30 yuan/ton on September 22 [10] - For coking coal, from January to August, the year - on - year decline in the import volume of coal and lignite narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and that of coking coal narrowed slightly to - 7.6%. Mine inventories of clean coal and raw coal decreased significantly in the past 13 weeks, with overall declines of 53.4% and 33.0% respectively. Independent coking plant inventory increased significantly from a low since mid - July, steel mill inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks from a high since early February, and port inventory increased from a low since early July last year in the past five weeks. Some spot coking coal prices rose again [11] - Overall, after a significant correction from mid - August to early September, the double - coke futures rebounded in mid - September but declined again in late September due to less incremental policies compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the coal - coke market will strengthen again after consolidation from late September to early October, and attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of finished product profits and the raw material inventory replenishment intentions of steel mills and coking plants [11] Group 5: Industry News - As of now, 1.12 billion kilowatts of coal - fired power units and 950 million tons of crude steel production capacity in China have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12] - In August 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.5 million and 2.54 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 9% and 11.1%, and year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 16.5% [12] - In August 2025, China's coking coal imports reached 10.162 million tons, the highest monthly level this year, with a year - on - year decline of 5.0% but a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. Imports from Mongolia reached 6.015 million tons, the highest since 2024 [13] - In August 2025, China's imports of thermal coal (non - coking coal) were 32.575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.31% and a month - on - month increase of 25.35%, reaching a new high this year [14] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the spot price indices of metallurgical coke and main coking coal, production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, iron water production, inventory of coke and coking coal, and basis differences [16][19][20]
碳酸锂期货日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a bottom. Although the supply pressure remains as the weekly production reached a record high last week, the demand growth is higher than the supply, leading to inventory reduction. It is expected that it is difficult for lithium carbonate to open a downward space in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures hit a bottom and then rebounded. The main contract dropped to a minimum of 72,360 during the session. All industrial products fell during the session, and lithium carbonate futures followed suit, but it turned positive first driven by downstream point - price purchases at low points. The spot electric carbon price remained flat at 73,850, and the spot still had a slight premium over the futures. The price of Australian ore remained flat at 832.5, and the price of lithium mica remained flat at 1,900. The production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 2,759, and the production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium mica remained flat at 8,521. Although salt plants are currently making losses, it does not affect their production enthusiasm [10]. 3.2. Industry News - On September 22, Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to the Comptroller General's Office (CGR) to approve the modification of the contract for the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA and the OMA mineral lease contract, extending the contract validity to 2030. It also submitted a new mineral lease contract for the Atacama Salt Lake with Codelco and its subsidiary Minera Tarar SpA, with a contract validity from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Field in northern Chile this year, marking the local's first large - scale entry into lithium production [13]. - Jiuzhou Hi - Tech (300631.SZ) announced that it signed a procurement contract worth 81.5 million yuan (including 13% VAT), with a tax - free amount of 72.1239 million yuan, with SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. for the "Membrane Treatment System Procurement" project of the expansion and renovation project for comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake. The signing of this contract is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future performance [13].
建信期货铜期货日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:01
Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: September 24, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Report Core View - Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. The new Fed governor called for aggressive interest rate cuts, while colleagues advocated caution. The US dollar index first rose and then fell. Gold and US stock indices reached new highs. Both safe - haven and risk assets rose. Overseas assets traded on the expectation of further significant Fed rate cuts, but A - shares and industrial products were weak. The spot copper price dropped by 215 to 80010, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 55. The slow downstream stocking before the holiday put pressure on the premium. High copper prices inhibited downstream pre - holiday stocking sentiment, but the weak US dollar and potential pre - holiday restocking in China provided strong support for Shanghai copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will show a strong and volatile trend before the holiday. Considering the release of US non - farm payroll data in September during the holiday, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [8][11] Industry News Summary Project Expansion - The US Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) provided funds to Metalex Africa Zambia, a subsidiary of Metalex Commodities, for a feasibility study to expand copper - cobalt extraction and processing facilities in Zambia. The funds will be used to assess the feasibility of adding 25,000 tons of copper - cobalt concentrate production capacity per year at the Kazozu mine and help establish cooperation with US buyers [12] Project Progress - Foran Mining reported that the construction progress of its McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project in Saskatchewan was 56% complete, still planning for the first production in mid - 2026 without exceeding the budget. In August, 597 meters of underground development were carried out, setting a monthly record. The surface ore stockpile exceeded 112,000 tons, and major surface projects also made progress [12] Export Situation - In August 2025, China's total wire and cable exports were 261,000 tons, including 123,400 tons of copper cables. In September, due to the resilient foreign demand for copper cables, the export volume is expected to remain at a high level [13]
建信期货镍日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:00
Group 1: Report Overview - Report name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous metals research team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel market weakened following the overall commodity trend. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, hitting a low of 120,500 yuan/ton during the session and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel remained flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton. Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, limiting the deep decline of nickel ore. NPI remains strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. Overall, the surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is still significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. However, at the current position, it is also difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai nickel market followed the overall commodity trend and weakened. The main contract 2510 opened lower and declined, with the lowest price during the session reaching 120,500 yuan/ton and closing down 0.58% at 120,730 yuan. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was flat at 2,350 yuan, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 1 yuan to 955.5 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 28,150 yuan/ton [8] - Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year, so the deep decline of nickel ore is limited. NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless steel terminals is limited. The profit of nickel - iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The pre - holiday stocking demand supports the nickel salt price to remain strong. The surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is significant, and the pure nickel inventory is accumulating. At the current position, it is difficult to decline deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Pay attention to the supply - side news from Indonesia, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months while formulating a quota system. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. The previous extension expired on September 21, and an official document is expected to be issued this Sunday or next Monday. The news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is extended, the inventory of smelting enterprises is expected to remain below the safety level [9] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference that the details of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and future financial reforms will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macro - economic situation [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. Previously, it took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain national control of forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department. President Prabowo has promised to crack down on illegal natural resource exploitation [10] - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and committing to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signing the United Nations Global Compact. The company's president and CEO said it reflects the company's long - standing values of environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility, which will create long - term value for the Baptiste nickel project and stakeholders [10]
建信期货生猪日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:49
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure of slaughter is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 23rd, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed in the negative at the end of the session. The highest was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,655 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,354 lots to 249,995 lots [9]. - **Spot Market**: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, the slaughter pressure is large, the slaughter progress at the end of the month accelerates, and the slaughter weight decreases slightly. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, the sales of white strips are slow, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,000 heads, an increase of 8,000 heads from the previous day, 48,000 heads week - on - week, and 129,000 heads month - on - month [10]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 7.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 46 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 246.6 yuan/head, a decrease of 70.8 yuan/head week - on - week [11][13] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 18th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 18th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.16 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin week - on - week [17]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [17]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 18th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [17]. - **National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs**: As of the week of September 18th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [17].
建信期货原油日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:49
Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The significant increase in US crude oil exports has led to a substantial reduction in crude oil inventories, but the weekly export volume fluctuates greatly. Refinery crude oil input has begun to decline continuously, and refineries will enter the maintenance season later, resulting in a temporary decline in demand. Distillate inventories have been increasing since reaching the lowest point of the year in July, with a significantly faster growth rate than the same period in previous years. Diesel consumption is weak, and the 4th quarter is about to enter the consumption peak season, so the later changes should be monitored. The data is slightly bearish. EIA and IEA have raised the global crude oil supply forecast in their monthly reports, and the expected inventory accumulation speed has accelerated. Oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the medium term, and the main strategy is to hold a bearish view. In operation, short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. Grouped by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $62.30, closing price was $62.34, highest price was $63, lowest price was $61.61, with a decline of 0.10% and a trading volume of 20.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.98, closing price was $66.01, highest price was $66.67, lowest price was $65.35, with a decline of 0.05% and a trading volume of 29.58 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.6 yuan/barrel, closing price was 473.1 yuan/barrel, highest price was 478.7 yuan/barrel, lowest price was 471.6 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 2.29% and a trading volume of 10.21 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main strategy is to hold a bearish view on oil prices in the medium term, and short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. 2. Industry News - Kuwait's oil minister stated that Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [7]. - According to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day month-on-month in July, dropping to 9.201 million barrels per day [7]. - Market news indicated that Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21]