Jian Xin Qi Huo

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建信期货纸浆日报-20250826
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - Paper pulp is in a low-level oscillatory adjustment due to limited cost guidance, abundant supply, and the anticipation of peak season demand [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5360 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5402 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5100 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low-end price rising 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5800 yuan/ton [7] - Chilean Arauco Company announced a new round of August wood pulp FOB prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton; natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton; hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to the June quotes. According to PPPC data, the chemical commodity pulp shipments from the world's 20 major pulp-producing countries in June increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with softwood pulp down 2.4% year-on-year and hardwood pulp up 10.1% year-on-year. According to UTIPULP data, the European wood pulp inventory in July 2025 was 683,200 tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month and an 8.7% increase year-on-year; the European wood pulp consumption was 814,200 tons, a 6.8% increase month-on-month and a 2.1% decrease year-on-year. The total pulp imports in China in July were 2.877 million tons, a 5.1% decrease month-on-month and a 23.7% increase year-on-year. As of August 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.59% month-on-month [8] 3.2行业要闻 - On August 21st, Nine Dragons Paper announced that its estimated annual profit as of June 30, 2025, would be between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion yuan, a 165% - 190% increase from last year's 794 million yuan. This profit increase was mainly due to increased sales and a significant decrease in raw material costs compared to the product price decline, driving up gross profit. Additionally, the company issued $400 million in perpetual capital securities in June 2024, and the attributable profit for the holders of these securities this year was approximately 400 million yuan. The estimated attributable profit for the company's equity holders this year is between 1.7 billion and 1.9 billion yuan, a 126% - 153% increase from last year's 751 million yuan. The final performance announcement is expected to be released before the end of September 2025 [9]
建信期货股指日评-20250826
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:40
报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 8 月 25 日,万得全 A 跳空高开后震荡上行,午间有所回落,随后再度走高, 收涨 1.80%,超 6 成个股上涨;指数现货方面,沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别上涨 2.08%、2.09%、1.89%、1.56%,中小盘股表现更优。指数 期货表现弱于现货,IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.83%、1.79%、1.46%、 0.87%(按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算 ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250825
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:49
Report Overview - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 1: Market Review Futures Contract Data - **DCE M2601**: Pre-settlement price was 3128, opening at 3116, reaching a high of 3116, a low of 3079, and closing at 3088, down 40 or 1.28%. Trading volume was 1,278,955, with an open interest of 2,000,115, a decrease of 58,947 [6]. - **DCE M2509**: Pre-settlement price was 3088, opening at 3079, high of 3079, low of 3033, and closing at 3041, down 47 or 1.52%. Trading volume was 110,869, open interest was 182,385, down 44,763 [6]. - **DCE M2511**: Pre-settlement price was 3107, opening at 3081, high of 3094, low of 3048, and closing at 3055, down 52 or 1.67%. Trading volume was 128,296, open interest was 559,890, down 1,897 [6]. External Market and Weather Factors - The US soybean futures contract on the external market rose, with the main contract at 1055 cents. ProFarmer started its annual crop field inspection this week. Feedback on soybeans showed that the pod numbers in most major producing areas were historically high, in line with the USDA's high-yield forecast for this year. However, weather is still variable. Currently, about 9% of the US soybean area is in drought, up from 3% last week, and rainfall in most major producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks [6]. Group 2: Industry News ProFarmer Forecasts - In 2025, the average number of soybean pods in Illinois is expected to be 1479.22, compared to 1419.11 in the 2024 crop inspection. In Iowa's D1 region, it's expected to be 1279.25 (1108.76 in 2024), in D4 region 1376.15 (1254.09 in 2024), and in D7 region 1562.54 (1366.22 in 2024) [9]. USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending August 14, total US soybean export sales increased by 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations. Current market-year sales decreased by 0.57 million tons, down 98% from the previous week and 105% from the four-week average, while the market expected a range from a decrease of 300,000 tons to an increase of 300,000 tons. Next market-year sales increased by 1.1426 million tons, higher than the expected range of 400,000 - 1 million tons. Export shipments were 517,900 tons, down 3% from the previous week but up 9% from the four-week average. New sales for the current market year were 136,500 tons, and for the next market year were 1.1454 million tons [8][9][10]. Group 3: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as the ex-factory price of soybean meal, basis of the M09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][18]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250825
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:47
Report Overview - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently in a state of oversupply, with significant pressure on prices. The spot market has been weak, and the futures market has also shown a downward trend. In the short term, the market may experience large fluctuations, and it is recommended to avoid risks. A potential rebound may occur after increased culling and the demand from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but timing is crucial. If low egg prices lead to a decrease in subsequent replenishment, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - Egg futures contracts showed different trends. The 2509 contract closed at 2920, down 6 points or 0.21%, with a trading volume of 87,006 and an open interest of 59,422 (a decrease of 10,271). The 2510 contract closed at 3033, down 2 points or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 and an open interest of 434,281 (a decrease of 18,629). The 2511 contract closed at 3100, up 10 points or 0.32%, with a trading volume of 119,383 and an open interest of 179,758 (an increase of 3,336). - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main consuming areas was 3.32 yuan/jin, also down 0.10 yuan/jin [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: - Due to the weak spot market and the lack of technical support in the futures market, it is not recommended to buy at the bottom. A potential rebound may occur after increased culling and the demand from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but it is difficult to time. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the market may fluctuate greatly [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, showing an upward trend for 7 consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and the same period in 2024 (41.68 million). Although it was a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past 8 years, the low breeding profits in the past two months have started to change farmers' expansion mindset, and the decrease in July was the first this year [9][10]. - **Culling**: The culling volume has been increasing recently, with the average culling age at 500 days as of August 21, 6 days earlier than the previous week and 6 days earlier than last month. However, more and longer - term over - culling is needed to restore the supply - demand balance [8][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the 09 and 10 contracts, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg farming profits, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas, and the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [12][13][15]
建信期货铜期货日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:47
行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 研究员:彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1:沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2:伦铜走势及价差 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡偏弱,主力收盘报 78540,隔夜特朗普呼吁美联储理事库克辞职美市场 等待周五晚间全球央行年会上鲍威尔发言,但在美联储最近一次会议的记录显示 只有两名决策者支持上月降息后,美元缩减跌幅。现货涨 30 至 78800,现货升水 跌 30 至 160,国产货源补充下现货升水承压。现货进口窗口继续打开,现货进口 盈利 230 元/吨,洋山铜 ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:43
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The spot freight rate has entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline this week. Although the price has stabilized, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The freight rate this year may show the characteristic of an even weaker off - season. The main October contract has a deep discount, and the short - term futures decline may narrow, but it may still show a downward trend in the long term. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [8] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The spot freight rate has entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline to 2180.17 points this week. The August freight rate has been reduced, and now the price has stabilized. The 40GP large container price of Maersk on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the fourth week of August is about $300 lower than that in the third week. The quotes of other shipping companies are concentrated in the range of $2500 - $2900. CMA CGM and ONE's September freight rates are slightly higher than those at the end of August [8] - Market outlook: Due to the great impact of tariffs on foreign trade and the high shipping capacity supply in the off - season, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The main October contract has a deep discount and the decline rate has slowed down. The short - term futures decline may narrow, but it may still decline in the long term. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - Market adjustment: From August 11th to 15th, the China export container shipping market continued to adjust, with most route freight rates falling, dragging down the comprehensive index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 15th was 1460.19 points, a 2.0% decline from the previous period [9] - European economy: Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index in August dropped to 34.7, far lower than market expectations, and the euro - zone data showed a similar trend. The European economy will continue to face challenges, and the spot market booking price continues to decline. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports on August 15th was $1820/TEU, a 7.2% decline from the previous period [9][10] - Mediterranean and North American routes: The Mediterranean route's freight rate continued to decline, with the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports on August 15th at $2279/TEU, a 1.7% decline from the previous period. In the North American route, the US PPI in July increased significantly, and the customs tariff revenue reached $28 billion, a 273% increase year - on - year, but the fiscal deficit still increased by 10%. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on August 15th decreased by 3.5% and 2.6% respectively from the previous period [10] - Geopolitical events: The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. The Israeli Air Force's air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port have further disrupted the port's operations [10] - Trade policy: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Price - European route: The SCFIS of the European route (basic ports) on August 18th was 2180.17 points, a 2.5% decline from August 11th [12] - US West route: The SCFIS of the US West route (basic ports) on August 18th was 1106.29 points, a 2.2% increase from August 11th [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 21st shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and position changes. For example, the EC2510 contract closed at 1325.0, with a decline of 33.8 and a decline rate of 2.49%, and the trading volume was 35008, with an open interest of 54293 and a position increase of 2566 [6]
锌期货日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:22
Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - The main contract of SHFE zinc 2510 closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan with a 0.14% increase, with reduced volume and positions. The positions decreased by 568 lots to 110,426 lots. - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, with the entire decline from Singapore. The 0 - 3 spread was C9.33. - The domestic zinc market has a core contradiction of abundant concentrates and sufficient refined zinc, and social inventory has been accumulating, reflecting the surplus pressure. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year increase in imported zinc concentrates was 45.2%. In August, the processing fee continued to rise, with the imported zinc concentrate index at 90.3 US dollars/dry ton and the domestic zinc concentrate TC stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. High TC and high sulfuric acid prices have expanded smelters' profit margins. In August, there were few domestic maintenance activities, and the refined zinc output may increase to 621,500 tons. - The downstream is in the off - season, and although there are policy supports on the demand side, the weakness is still obvious. The operating load in the primary consumption field remains at a low level. Overall, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continues. The domestic market is difficult to fall deeply due to the influence of the overseas market. There is an expectation of a switch from the off - season to the peak season in late August, and the callback space of SHFE zinc is limited, with short - term wide - range fluctuations [7]. Group 3: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On August 21, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,240 - 22,305 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was 22,360 - 22,415 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream price of 0 zinc was 22,220 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at par to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,210 - 22,280 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was 22,230 - 22,310 yuan/ton. 0 zinc was generally quoted at a discount of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and Zijin was quoted at a discount of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [8][9]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,150 - 22,255 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on the seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory of SMM, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE monthly spread, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14]
碳酸锂期货日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:18
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on lithium carbonate futures dated August 22, 2025, written by researchers Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin from the Nonferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Lithium carbonate futures stopped falling, and the market selling sentiment eased. The logic of production cuts at the lithium resource end still exists, and the futures once turned positive. The spot price of electric carbon dropped by 500 to 85,200, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing resistance to decline [9] - Australian ore remained flat at 960, lithium mica ore dropped by 15 to 2,110, the price of 5-series power ternary materials remained flat, and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 125. The short - term price decline led to price cuts in both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain [9] - The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,613, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica widened to 2,995. This week's weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons compared with last week, and social inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Production is still at a relatively high level, and it is judged that the inflection point of social inventory has appeared [9] - With the spot at a premium and the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ore - end production cuts remaining high before the end of September, it is expected that the downward space for lithium carbonate prices is limited [9] Group 3: Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was put into operation on August 20. It is China's first approved UHV transmission channel mainly for transmitting new energy from large - scale wind and photovoltaic bases in the "Sahara - Gobi - Desert" area. The project has a supporting power generation capacity of 17.64 million kilowatts, including 13 million kilowatts of new energy (4 million kilowatts of wind power and 9 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power) [12] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, transitioning from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase. The project has successfully produced salable spodumene concentrate with a lithium oxide grade of over 5% (up to 6.2%) and achieved full - process automated continuous production [12][13]
建信期货国债日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:47
行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 当日行情: 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | 表1:国债期货8月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 116.240 | 115.950 | 116.570 | 116.580 | 0.330 | 0 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:47
Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Industry: Soda Ash and Glass Report Key Points Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash supply exceeds demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The market pattern of oversupply is difficult to improve, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - The glass industry is in a weak supply - demand balance. Although the downstream demand has improved marginally, the inventory increase restricts price rebound. The futures price is expected to have a short - term weak - oscillating trend [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: On August 21, for soda ash futures, SA509 closed at 1208 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; SA601 closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 1.06%. For glass futures, FG509 closed at 983 yuan/ton, down 2.09%; FG601 closed at 1156 yuan/ton, down 0.85% [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The production increased to 77.14 tons, up 1.32% week - on - week. Factory inventory reached 191.08 tons, up 0.71%. Terminal demand in photovoltaic glass decreased to 8.7 tons, and the overall demand was average. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remained unchanged, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Glass Market**: Since late July, downstream orders increased marginally. As of August 15, 2025, the daily melting volume was 15.96 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%. The order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.65 days, up 0.1 days. The inventory increased by 157.9 million heavy cases to 6342.6 million heavy cases. The price was expected to have a short - term weak - oscillating trend [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [12][17][20]