Report Overview - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trade risk is showing a缓和 trend, and the market trading logic is gradually shifting to the domestic economic fundamentals. The domestic economy maintains moderate growth, but there are challenges such as declining export growth, a bottoming - out real estate market, and intensified manufacturing competition. The market may experience a short - term phased correction, and it is recommended to maintain medium - to - low - position long contracts, with a phased preference for the relative performance of IF contracts [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On June 17, the Wind All - A index declined with shrinking volume. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in the index spot market closed down 0.09%, 0.04%, 0.29%, and 0.10% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the index futures market, futures generally outperformed spot. The IF and IC main contracts closed down 0.03% and 0.14% respectively, while the IH and IM main contracts closed up 0.09% and 0.04% respectively. Coal, utilities, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while media, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors led the losses [6] 1.2 Future Outlook - In the external market, the CPI and labor market data released by the US last week were generally lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. After the China - US Geneva talks, the China - US tariffs returned to the level of an additional 10% each on April 2. Domestically, the May economic data showed a marginal decline in external demand and a marginal improvement in domestic demand. The single - month export in May increased by 6.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.3 pct compared to the previous month, and the single - month total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 1.3 pct. The investment data was average, with the narrow - sense infrastructure investment growth rate slightly narrowing to 5.6%, the manufacturing investment growth rate falling back to 8.5%, and real estate investment continuing to decline, reaching a 5 - year low. Overall, the China - US trade risk is easing, and the market trading logic is shifting to domestic fundamentals. The domestic economy may maintain a weak recovery in the second quarter, and there is uncertainty in exports in the third quarter. The market may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to maintain medium - to - low - position long contracts and prefer the IF contracts [8][9] 2. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including the performance of domestic major indices, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of the Wind All - A index, trading volume of stock index spot and futures, open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, and inter - period spread trend. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][14][18] 3. Industry News - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18 to 19 in Shanghai, and central financial regulatory authorities will release several major financial policies. Citigroup reported that the Fed's rate - cut expectation will weaken the attractiveness of gold, and gold prices are expected to fall below $3000 per ounce in the next few quarters. On June 17, the central bank conducted 1973 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1986 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1820 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1833 billion yuan [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage policy has stabilized the pig price and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs continues to increase, while demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The futures market is currently in a rebound phase, but in the long run, it is affected by the off - season demand and the relatively loose supply - demand situation, and the sustainability of future purchase and storage policies needs attention [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the 17th, the main 2509 contract of live pig futures opened flat, fluctuated slightly higher, and closed positive. The highest was 13,855 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,755 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,815 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 1,732 lots to 163,288 lots. The national average price of foreign three - way pigs was 14.23 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [9] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, and most were in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises were average, with low operating rates and slaughter volumes. On June 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 146,000 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day and 4,600 heads from a week ago. On the supply side, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Farmers slaughtered normally, the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased slightly. On the policy side, on June 11th, the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage had a listed competitive trading volume of 10,000 tons, with a transaction price of 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg for No. 2 - 4 meat [10] 3.2 Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [11][13] 3.3 Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period - As of the week of June 13th, the average slaughter weight of sample live pigs was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.01% - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 12th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.06 yuan/jin, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin [19]

Report Overview - Report Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Industry: Methanol [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Data Sources: Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [5] 1. Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract decreased in price with reduced positions on Tuesday. The weighted contract decreased by 0.37%, with a reduction of 23,806 positions, and the 09 main contract reduced by 3,695 positions. The weighted contract showed a wide - range volatile trend after opening lower and finally closed with a small - bodied false positive line with upper and lower shadows [5]. - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Iranian situation affects methanol prices. Currently, Iranian methanol ports and shipments are normal, but there are reports of Israeli air strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, which may support methanol prices. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties increase price volatility. The short - term supply disruptions and the short - term rebound of upstream coal prices also support methanol prices, so it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5]. - From a technical perspective, in the hourly cycle, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area for the second time and then corrected, the MACD fast and slow lines were still above the zero axis, and the red bars continued to shorten. In the daily cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines both crossed above the zero axis, the red bars continued to lengthen, and the RSI indicator was in the overbought area and showed signs of correction. Overall, it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The MA2501 contract opened at 2,445, closed at 2,455, with a high of 2,466, a low of 2,410, a decline of 0.37%, a trading volume of 175,703, an open interest of 208,776, and a decrease in open interest of 9,733. The MA2505 contract opened at 2,388, closed at 2,387, with a high of 2,395, a low of 2,354, a decline of 0.33%, a trading volume of 1,694, an open interest of 3,589, and an increase in open interest of 243. The MA2509 contract opened at 2,440, closed at 2,455, with a high of 2,466, a low of 2,397, a decline of 0.37%, a trading volume of 2,061,228, an open interest of 816,410, and a decrease in open interest of 3,696 [7]. 3.2 Industry News - A coal - chemical project worth 59 billion yuan started. Inner Mongolia Zhuozheng Coal - Chemical Co., Ltd.'s methanol project, methanol - acetic acid extension project, and new - material project's finished and semi - finished product tank area project began construction. The first - phase project, estimated to cost 25.5 billion yuan, plans to produce more than 30 main and by - products such as acetic acid, ethanol, polyglycolic acid, and polyoxymethylene, with an expected annual output value of about 11.7 billion yuan. It is scheduled to be put into production in October 2026, and the second - phase project construction will be launched simultaneously. The long - term plan covers about 7,800 mu of land, with an estimated investment of 59 billion yuan, targeting high - end fine - chemical products in the new energy and new - material fields [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the main contract basis, production - sales price difference, futures price and warehouse receipt quantity, MA09 - MA01 spread, three - process methanol profit, and overseas methanol market price, but specific data details are not described in the text [20][24][25]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 18 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月17日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,936.0 | 1,897.0 | 1,901.8 | 1,896.5 | -34.2 | -1 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 06 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

Report Date - The report is dated June 18, 2025 [2] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract of polysilicon fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of PS2508 was 34,010 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.93%. The trading volume was 62,835 lots, and the open interest was 51,277 lots, a net decrease of 5,586 lots [4] Outlook - The supply-demand contradiction has not further intensified after the end of the "rush installation," but the terminal pressure will gradually be transmitted upstream to the supply side. The weekly output in the second week of June remained at 22,000 tons, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 100,000 tons. It is difficult to increase production during the wet season, which will relieve the potential supply pressure in the distant months. If production cuts are implemented, the current spot and futures prices will be supported [4] - The weak reality is mainly reflected in the fact that the "rush installation" of downstream photovoltaic terminals is gradually coming to an end, and the terminal photovoltaic demand has dropped to around 40GW. Although the weekly data of silicon wafers and cells has not declined rapidly, the inventory has been accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks. There are few positive news on the demand side during the policy vacuum period [4] - The 07 contract is currently at a discount to the price range of reclaimed feedstock, reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations. The resistance to further decline is increasing. However, if the production cuts do not increase, the fundamentals will not provide a continuous driving force for a rebound, and the contract will mainly operate weakly within a range [4] Market News - As of June 17, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The transaction price range of n-type reclaimed feedstock was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p-type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost-driven upward momentum for polyolefins has weakened, and they are experiencing high-level oscillations. Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply-demand dynamics. In the short term, cost logic still provides support, but as the geopolitical risk premium fades, polyolefins face the pressure of a high-level decline [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2509 contract of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7,317 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (0.51%), with a trading volume of 470,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 8,529 to 486,231 lots. The main contract of polypropylene (PP) closed at 7,125 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.25%), with a decrease in open interest of 4,930 to 455,500 lots. The futures rally has narrowed, and the market trading atmosphere has significantly declined. The supply-demand pattern has changed little. With the weakening of maintenance efforts and the launch of new production capacity, supply-side pressure has resurfaced. The downstream agricultural film industry's operating rate has declined to a relatively low level for the year, the packaging industry's short-term willingness to stock raw materials and finished products is not high, and the plastic weaving industry's operating rate is significantly lower than the same period in previous years [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On June 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, up 15,000 tons or 1.85% from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic PP market showed a narrow consolidation. Traders faced increased resistance in selling, and some high-price quotes were slightly adjusted downward yesterday, while others remained basically stable. Downstream factories mainly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and actual transactions were dull. The mainstream prices of North China's drawn PP were between 7,100 - 7,250 yuan/ton, East China's between 7,130 - 7,230 yuan/ton, and South China's between 7,100 - 7,330 yuan/ton. The PE market prices continued to rise. In North China, some linear PE prices rose by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 250 yuan/ton, and low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 300 yuan/ton, and low-pressure and linear PE prices rose by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, linear and low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The prices of LLDPE in North China were between 7,280 - 7,430 yuan/ton, in East China between 7,350 - 7,750 yuan/ton, and in South China between 7,470 - 7,700 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two major oil companies' inventory, and two major oil companies' inventory year-on-year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values in the charts are not described in detail in the text [7][14][16].

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 银行间各主要期限利率现券收益率均有所下行，短端下行幅度更大在 3bp 左 右，至下午 16：30，10 年国债活跃券 250011 收益率报 1.6425%上行 0.05bp。 资金市场： 央行公开市场净回笼，资金面平稳宽松。今日有 3806 亿元逆回购到期，央行 开展了 1973 亿元逆回购操作，实现净回笼 1833 亿元。银行间短端资金利率多数 回落，其中银存间隔夜加权回落约 2bp 至 1.37%附近，7 天在 1.52%附近窄幅变动， 中长期资金持稳，1 年国股大行存单利率多数稳定在 1.67%左右。 ...