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建信期货纸浆日报-20250619
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5,210 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,228 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase [7]. - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5,280 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 70 yuan from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 6,120 - 6,150 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's June Quotes: Silver Star was quoted at 740 US dollars/ton, and Venus at 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - Supply: In April, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative volume from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year. In May, China's pulp imports were 3.02 million tons, a 4.3% increase from the previous month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year [7]. - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 2.1% month - on - month. The inventory in major ports was stable with a slight increase, except for Tianjin Port. The overall shipment speed was moderate [7]. - Market Outlook: The new round of imported pulp quotes remained stable. The domestic and international pulp markets had a loose supply, the port de - stocking speed was still slow, downstream paper mills continued to optimize the raw material cost structure, and the competition between domestic and imported pulp intensified. Pulp prices fluctuated widely in a low - level range [7]. 3. Industry News - On June 6, relevant personnel from the Fujian Forestry Bureau and the Sanming Forestry Bureau visited Qingshan Paper Industry to guide the construction planning of the national reserve forest project. They believed that Qingshan Paper Industry's promotion of the project could ensure raw material supply and achieve green government - enterprise linkage. Qingshan Paper Industry, as a state - owned leading enterprise, has the unique advantage of "integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries" and adheres to the principle of "scientific planning and industrial collaboration" [8].
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250619
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 硅)028-8663 0631 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚 ...
甲醇日报-20250619
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Jin, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Li Jie, Feng Zeren [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Research Team [4] - Data Source: Wind, CCB Futures Research and Development Department [5] Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract increased in position and rose on Wednesday. The weighted contract added 84,058 lots, and the 09 main contract added 7,5511 lots. The weighted contract showed a high - opening, volatile upward trend and closed with a medium - bodied positive line with short upper and lower shadows, rising 2.36% overall. Methanol is expected to continue the geopolitical conflict trend in the short - term, mainly fluctuating strongly [5]. - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of June 18, 2025, domestic methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons or 3.10% from the previous period. Sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 273,800 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 9.37% from the previous period. Domestic methanol port inventory was 586,400 tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from the previous data. The weekly arrival volume decreased significantly, and the port inventory decreased this week [6]. - Technically, in the hourly line cycle, the RSI indicator is close to the over - bought area, and the MACD fast and slow lines are running above the zero axis with repeated divergence. In the daily line cycle, the MACD fast and slow lines are running above the zero axis, and the red column is continuously lengthening. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures market: For MA2501, the opening price was 2,468, the closing price was 2,500, the highest price was 2,505, the lowest price was 2,455, the increase was 1.83%, the trading volume was 146,252, the open interest was 222,810, the open interest change was 14,034, and the speculation degree was 0.66. For MA2505, the opening price was 2,388, the closing price was 2,408, the highest price was 2,417, the lowest price was 2,387, the increase was 0.88%, the trading volume was 2,111, the open interest was 3,452, the open interest change was - 137, and the speculation degree was 0.61. For MA2509, the opening price was 2,469, the closing price was 2,517, the highest price was 2,527, the lowest price was 2,461, the increase was 2.53%, the trading volume was 2,280,427, the open interest was 891,921, the open interest change was 75,511, and the speculation degree was 2.56 [7]. 2. Industry News - The first green ethanol co - production green methanol project in China was signed. China National Chemical Tianchen Company, Beijing Heneng Times Biotechnology Co., Ltd., and East China University of Science and Technology signed a tri - party cooperation agreement. They used the remaining materials from the cellulose ethanol production process as raw materials to form a complete set of green methanol wet gasification co - production industrialization solutions, achieving the cross - border integration of biomass fermentation and gasification technologies, and solving many pain points in other green methanol production processes [13]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the basis of the main contract, the price difference between production and sales areas, the profit of three methanol production processes, the overseas market price of methanol, the futures price and the number of warehouse receipts, and the price difference between MA09 and MA01 [16][20][24].
建信期货集运指数日报-20250619
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 当日行情: 现货方面,航司对 6 月线上报价较为平稳,显示 6 月涨价落地成色尚可,目前 大柜报集中在 2760~3300 美元区间,马士基欧基港 7 月初报价上涨至 3400 美元, HPL 大柜开舱价在 4345 美元左右,本周达飞进一步提涨 300 美元至 4645 美元, 较月末调涨 1045 美元~1710 美元,调涨幅度较大,观察其落地成色及其他航司会 否跟涨。考虑目前欧洲出口需求韧性较强,运力供给保持平稳,且报价和箱量都 有所企稳,旺季涨价短期难被证伪,涨价或有望得到基本面支撑逐步落地,若 6 月价格企稳,则远月旺季 08 合约中枢也应将上移、目前位置或存低估,而 10 月 作为传统淡季关注高空机会。 二、行业要闻 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021 ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250619
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
日期 2025 年 06 月 19 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 请阅读正文后的声明 多晶硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 ...
建信期货棉花日报-20250619
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1:行情回顾 | | | | P | | | | 原城 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -2509 | 13500 | 1354 | 35/0 | 13510 | 1354 | 1 | 0.30% | 124616 | 53342 | | | CF2601 | 13510 | 1353 | 3570 | 13520 | 13545 | | 0.26% | 23412 | 51537 | ...
建信期货国债日报-20250619
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | 表1:国债期货6月18日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.790 | 120.750 | 120.900 | 120.870 | 0.110 | 0.09 | ...
建信期货锌期货日报-20250618
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 05:07
行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2507 | 21955 | 21905 | 21985 | 21760 | 105 | 0.48 | 105668 | 103933 | | 沪锌 | 2508 ...
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250618
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 05:05
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently in a situation where supply is becoming more abundant and demand is gradually declining, leading to a weakening trend in ore prices. However, due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises, the decline in ore prices may be limited in the short term. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment and potential uncertainties in steel exports may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On June 17, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 699.0 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of iron ore with main grades at Qingdao Port showed mixed changes, with a fluctuation range of - 5 to + 5 yuan/ton. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, and the MACD red column began to narrow [7][9] - **Future Outlook**: In the short term, although the iron ore market is weak, there is still some support below due to the relatively good profitability of steel enterprises. In the long term, factors such as the continuous decline in real estate investment, potential uncertainties in steel exports after the 90 - day suspension period in the US, and the release of increased iron ore supply from the Xipo project may lead to a downward trend in ore prices [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - From June 9 to June 15, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 24% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. From June 17 to 21, a new round of heavy rainfall will occur from Southwest China to the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions. On June 17, relevant departments issued multiple meteorological warnings and the Ministry of Transport launched a level - 4 defense response to heavy rainfall [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore market, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of iron ore, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, and other data [16][18][24]
建信期货棉花日报-20250618
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 04:40
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) are mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1400 and above, and for Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 cotton, the basis is mostly at CF09 + 900 and above, with some low - basis at 800 - 900, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market is slightly better but still dull, and the yarn price is difficult to rise and remains stable. The profit of spinning enterprises has deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market is sluggish, and the price remains stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al - Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories have gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate is low [7]. - In the international market, the U.S. cotton planting progress is 85% (89% last year), and the good - to - excellent rate is 48% (54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply - demand report increased the U.S. cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending stocks to 960,000 tons. The U.S. cotton fundamentals are good, and the ICE cotton futures are strongly supported. In the domestic market, with the stable - to - increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or increase. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. The downstream industry is currently in a weak state, with finished product inventories gradually accumulating, and the decline in the operating rate is not obvious. In the short term, the fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range fluctuating adjustment. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 15, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 85% (89% last year, 90% five - year average, 76% the previous week), the budding rate was 19% (21% last year, 17% five - year average, 12% the previous week), the boll - opening rate was 3% (0% the previous week, 5% last year, 3% five - year average), and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% (54% last year). - As of June 14, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 2.8% (1.4% last week, 3.1% last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][19][25][28]