塑料产业日报 2025-09-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7252 | -18 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7252 | -18 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7244 | -32 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7202 | -2 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 224458 | -99924 持仓量(日,手) | 481368 | 12546 | | | 9-1价差 | -50 | 16 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 326251 | 12460 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 354573 | 10396 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -28322 | 2064 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7266.96 | -11.74 LLDPE(7042)均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure persists due to the expected high yield of US soybeans, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. In China, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada and China - US trade negotiations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil support the palm oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain the price. The low - level operation of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease the supply - side pressure. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken the long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and the focus is on trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil active contract is 9766 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 4711 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. - Monthly spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 169 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 106 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 258,258 lots, down 5291 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 398,350 lots, down 5972 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 1373 lots, down 4424 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 27480 lots, down 5159 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: There are 4487 warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil, up 600; and 6041 for rapeseed meal, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9895 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7868.13 yuan/ton, up 9.98 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.71, down 0.02; the basis of rapeseed oil main contract is 64 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal is - 0.1 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.4 million tons, up 4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 55.4 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.85 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.26 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.89 million tons, up 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal is 19.53%, down 0.11% and 0.12% respectively; that for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 1.29% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.23%, up 0.09%; the 60 - day is 21.87%, up 0.04%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.93%, up 0.49%; the 60 - day is 14.5%, up 0.13% [2].

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-09-02 面，持仓下降价格回升，空头氛围减弱，关注22200支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22325 | 150 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 10 | -10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2833 | 19 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 217039 | -10790 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -7797 | 5781 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 38955 | 998 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 85980 | 8142 LME库存(日,吨) | 55875 | -625 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22150 | 50 长江有 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Macroscopically, China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with the fastest new order growth rate since March, and the eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in August rose above the boom-bust line for the first time in three years. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was mainly affected by factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak-season recovery period, with slow order recovery and little overall demand increase. Recently, social inventories have remained high, and tin downstream buyers are cautious after the price increase. The spot premium has dropped to 0 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased. LME inventories have rebounded, but the spot premium has risen. Technically, with the decline in positions and prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips, focusing on the range of 271,000 - 277,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 273,980 yuan/ton, up 740 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin was -200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,060 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 34,947 lots, down 1,036 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was -2,097 lots, up 729 lots. The LME tin total inventory was 2,155 tons, up 145 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,566 tons, up 75 tons, and the warehouse receipts were 7,263 tons, up 48 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 273,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,530 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract was -480 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 148 US dollars/ton, down 27 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 261,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 265,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 177,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of tin - coated sheets was 140,700 tons, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - coated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [3]. Industry News - The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7 from 49.8 in July, higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022, with the fastest growth rates of factory output and new orders in nearly three and a half years. China's S&P Manufacturing PMI in August rebounded to 50.5, with the fastest new order growth rate since March. New orders drove the recovery of manufacturing production, the pace of contraction of new export business slowed down, procurement activities and inventories increased, and business confidence also improved, but enterprises remained cautious in employee recruitment. Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the 25th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China plans to implement 100 "small but beautiful" livelihood projects in member states in need and will provide 2 billion yuan in free aid to member states this year. China's cumulative trade volume with Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries has exceeded the target of 2.3 trillion US dollars ahead of schedule, and China will soon establish the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Development Bank to provide stronger support for member states' security and economic cooperation [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View In the pre - new cotton - dominant period, the supply of old cotton in the domestic market is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the spot price is firm, with the futures price expected to fluctuate upward. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 14,045 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,995 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures are - 54,518 lots, a decrease of 2,529 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it's - 510 lots, an increase of 10 lots [2]. - The main contract positions of cotton are 521,766 lots, a decrease of 7,167 lots; for cotton yarn, it's 24,498 lots, an increase of 536 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 6,131 sheets, a decrease of 189 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 60 sheets, an increase of 3 sheets [2]. - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,479 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan; China's yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,492 yuan/ton, up 107 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,766 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [2]. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,282 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,463 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,301 yuan/ton, a decrease of 151 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 85.7 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 5 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The profit from imported cotton is 1,298 yuan/ton, an increase of 252 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days; the grey - cloth inventory days are 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.79 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 73,500 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 15,161,759,000 US dollars, a decrease of 104,955,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,604,009,000 US dollars, a decrease of 444,198,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.23%, an increase of 0.41%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.23%, an increase of 0.38% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.77%, an increase of 0.26%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.4%, a decrease of 0.34% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 29, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory is 1.547 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 165,600 tons (a decrease of 9.67%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 849,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 135,200 tons (a decrease of 13.74%); the commercial cotton in the inland area is 386,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,900 tons (a decrease of 3.95%) [2]. - ICE was closed on Monday. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.18%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.20%. Domestically, cotton is in the de - inventory stage, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, with the spot price firm [2]. - China's quota for the sliding - scale duty on imported cotton for processing trade in 2025 is 200,000 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. The impact of production restrictions is nearing its end, and the price movement of finished products depends more on demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price was 3,298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; HC main contract open interest was 1,217,277 lots, up 22,073 lots; HC contract top 20 net open interest was - 91,113 lots, down 541 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread was 12 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; HC last trading day's warehouse receipt was 25,660 tons, unchanged; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 181 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] Spot Market - The prices of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin decreased by 40 yuan, 40 yuan, 40 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively; HC main contract basis was 92 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, up 8 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel was 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; 45 - port iron ore inventory was 137.6302 million tons, down 0.8218 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory was 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons; Hebei billet inventory was 1.2836 million tons, up 0.1227 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.18%, down 0.16%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90%, down 0.27%; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 3.2474 million tons, down 0.005 million tons; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 82.95%, down 0.13%; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 796,800 tons, up 7,900 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 2.8578 million tons, up 0.0323 million tons; domestic crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; steel net export volume was 9.39 million tons, up 0.18 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, down 0.203 million vehicles; automobile sales were 2.5934 million vehicles, down 0.3111 million vehicles; air - conditioner production was 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units; household refrigerator production was 8.7307 million units, down 0.3168 million units; household washing machine production was 8.7743 million units, down 0.7336 million units [2] Industry News - As of September 1, 23 sample steel enterprises with 89 blast furnaces in Tangshan have carried out blast furnace shutdown and maintenance as planned, with 16 new blast furnace overhauls, and the rest mainly in rotation maintenance and production reduction. The theoretically calculated daily average hot - metal impact is about 122,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 74.62%, a decrease of 14.21% compared with August 27 and 10.35% compared with the same period last year. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. The new car - making forces announced their August delivery data, showing an overall growth trend, with Leapmotor, XPeng, and NIO all hitting monthly delivery highs. Leapmotor delivered 57,066 vehicles in a single month, a year - on - year increase of over 88% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The market recognizes the potential reduction in the output of Xinjiang grey dates in the new season, but there are differences in the output estimates. Overall, the downstream demand is weak, market purchases and sales are average, the old inventory is in a slow de - stocking process, the spot price is stable, and the jujube futures show a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the actual output and opening price in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujube is 11,380 yuan/ton, the main contract's open interest is 132,192 lots (a decrease of 3,645 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,646 lots (an increase of 3,250 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 10,089, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 737 [2] 现货市场 - The prices of jujube in different regions vary. For example, the unified - grade jujube price in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.8 yuan/jin, and the special - grade jujube price in Guangdong is 11.7 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons (an increase of 3.187 million tons), and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares (a decrease of 41,000 hectares) [2] Industry Conditions - The national jujube inventory is 9,456 tons (a decrease of 63 tons compared to last week, a 0.66% decrease), the monthly jujube export volume is 1,784,164 kg (an increase of 19,057 kg), and the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 18,899,838 kg (an increase of 1,784,164 kg) [2] Downstream Conditions - The jujube wholesale price in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is not clearly stated (a decrease of 8), the cumulative quarterly jujube sales volume of好想你is 36,480.43 tons (a decrease of 2,981.06 tons), and the cumulative quarterly jujube output growth rate of好想你is 1.47% (a decrease of 34.59%) [2] Industry News - On September 2, the weather in Aksu was sunny with a temperature between 13 - 27°C. Jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management. The mainstream per - mu yield was 700 - 800 kg, and the first - crop large fruits were gradually turning red. Attention should be paid to rainfall. On Tuesday, the jujube 2601 contract closed down 0.39%. The jujube output in 2024 increased year - on - year, resulting in the old inventory being much higher than the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract traded in a range. A personal consumer loan subsidy policy was implemented on September 1st, and many banks are actively promoting its implementation. The weekly output of rebar increased with a capacity utilization rate of 48.35%. Market sentiment was weak, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand, leading to a continued increase in inventory. Overall, the steel market had both bullish and bearish factors, and the futures price found temporary support around 3100. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed a golden cross at a low level with shrinking green bars. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,117.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume was 1,675,244 lots, up 41,530 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 196,211 lots, up 15,317 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 70 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 215,221 tons, up 3,683 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 181 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 153.00 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 768.00 yuan/wet ton, up 8.00 yuan. The price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 137.6302 million tons, down 0.8218 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2836 million tons, up 0.1227 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.00%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2056 million tons, up 0.0591 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 48.35%, up 1.30 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.6962 million tons, down 0.0491 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.5377 million tons, up 0.2126 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.658 million tons, up 0.14 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.25. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6,387.31 million square meters, down 54.10 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 405.36 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2]. 2.6 Industry News - On August 25, 2025, Wuzhou Yongda Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. successfully dismantled a 35 - ton electric arc furnace and a 40 - ton electric arc furnace, marking a step forward in resolving over - capacity, technological upgrading, and green development. Since August 25, many coal mines in Shanxi have carried out short - term shutdowns for maintenance. As of the morning of September 2nd, 78 coal mines in Shanxi had shut down voluntarily due to safety and maintenance reasons, involving a production capacity of 94.8 million tons [2].

苹果出货节奏偏慢，不过整体库存压力较小，加上市场对晚熟富士苹果开秤价预期较高，支撑价格偏强波 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 动，关注早熟富士上市和质量情况。操作上建议多单持有，注意设置止损控制风险。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 15 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 8389 | | 56839 | -1575 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol production increased slightly as the output of the restored production capacity was more than the loss of the overhaul and production - cut capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises increased last week due to the start of a new long - term contract in the northwest region and the resumption of some overhaul projects. The port inventory of methanol accelerated to accumulate significantly last week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate increased last week and is expected to continue to increase slightly this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2325 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2372 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 807,495 lots, an increase of 8,187 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 107,545 lots, an increase of 3,658 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,516, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2042.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 192.5 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 137 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 257 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton; the price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 293 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 65 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.02 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 88.9 tons, an increase of 18.28 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 41.03 tons, an increase of 4.05 tons. The import profit of methanol was 1.62 yuan/ton, down 4.03 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 333,400 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 42.04%, unchanged; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.02%, unchanged; the operating rate of acetic acid was 85.24%, down 3.77 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 63.54%, unchanged; the operating rate of olefins was 85.35%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 973 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 12.69%, down 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.12%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.6%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.6%, up 1.12 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 27, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.34 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 21.70 tons, an increase of 0.96 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.64%. As of August 27, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 129.93 tons, an increase of 22.33 tons from the previous data. As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.41%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [3]